Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 3

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 3

AL WEST

Correction from last blog...Adam Eaton, the center fielder of the White Sox...does not bat cleanup...I meant to say he's good at leadoff. I knew that...just a minor brain lock.

Once more, here is my ratings system:

5*stars= among the best of all time.

4*stars=really good

3*stars=a little above average

2 ½*stars=average

1*star=stinko

0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.

I'm rating teams in 5 categories: offensive lineup, defense, rotation, bullpen and leadership.

(Another note on ratings: A team getting 12½ stars would seem to be an “average” team since that's the way the numbers look. But remember, the ratings are based on historical norms, not just in comparison to other teams in any one season.

The way baseball looks these days, I would say a team needs at least 14½ stars to compete for a playoff spot, and that would be in a weaker division. Any thing over 18 would be a very strong contender for a playoff spot.)

AL WEST:

1^st place...HOUSTON

This is very close between Houston and Texas, with Seattle maybe sneaking in there if they can get it together.

Lineup: 3½*...starts out good with Altuve, Correa and Springer, but their cleanup guys are Carlos Gomez and Colby Rasmus. Evan Gattis is hurt and Singleton didn't make it at first so they have Valbuena and somebody else to try. Everybody strikes out too much. They did have 11 players in double figure for homers.

Defense: 3½*...Excellent in center, right and around the keystone.

Rotation: 3½*...overrated. Keuchel is not going to go undefeated at home this year. That was freakish. McHugh is a good 3 but McCullers is hurt at number 2. Fiers threw a no-hitter and had ERA of 2.67 but Feldman is a journeymen.

Bullpen: 4*...good last year but now better with Giles moving into the closer role and pushing everybody down a notch.

Leadership: 4*...seem to have a plan. Great spirit...inspirational leader in Altuve...the new golden boy in Correa. They got a taste last year and should be even hungrier.

TOTAL: 18½ STARS...FIRST PLACE

2^nd place...TEXAS

They came back to nip Houston at the wire in the regular season, then cratered in a nightmare inning in the notorious Bautista bat-flip game to lose in the first round to Toronto. (BAD JUJU watch for psych damage)

Lineup: 4*...they got some boppers all right. They're getting old though, and have a history of catastrophic injury. They added Ian Desmond, who is tearing up the Spring, to play left. He'll probably be a super sub all around the diamond. (The guy has to have maximum motivation after turning down $100 million from Washington to play short and then another $16 mil for one season only to not be offered anything but left field at Texas for $8 million on a one year contract.)

Choo and Fielder came back strong. Beltre has healed up. Moreland had his best year. Josh Hamilton is still hurt and probably a non-factor but Rougned Odor and Delino DeShields were great young players and Jurickson Profar is back after two years of shoulder miseries. I doubt if he can take over from Andrus at short (if only!) but he can hit and fill in.

Defense: 3*...gold glove at third with Beltre and a great arm in right with Choo but DeShields is a terrible center fielder.(The Rangers sometimes pulled him for another defender in late innings! Your center fielder?) Nobody else stands out.

Rotation: 3*...the hope was that Darvish would be ready to come back and team with Cole Hamels for a powerful double punch at the top, but he's not ready. If Darvish comes back healthy before June I'll bump this up a point.

Bullpen: 3½*...improved by the end of last season. Tolleson saved 35 games.

Leadership: 4*...they came back from one of the worst injury years any team has ever experienced in 2014 and became a winner again. Beltre is their Daddy and Fielder their Teddy Bear.

Odor is a very intense player and hit the second most homers ever by a player under 22. (16, and Mazeroski is first with 19) Hamels fulfilled expectations as a staff leader. The front office came through big time.

The Rangers seem like a loose team finally.

TOTAL: 17½ STARS...SECOND PLACE***

(***NOTE: the rumor is that Texas might a have deal in place for catcher Lucroy from the Brewers. Lucroy is one of the best and a real pro catcher can make a huge difference. If he comes over it raises their offense, defense and leadership by ½ point each, making the Rangers the new favorite to finish first in the AL West.)

3^rd Place...SEATTLE

The whole of 2015 was a toothache for the Mariners. The pitching was a disaster...they used 28 guys. Cano underachieved with stomach problems.

Lineup: 3½*...Cano, Cruz and Seager in the middle scare you but they got nothing from most of the rest. Marte might be good and I guess Lind can hit another 20 dingers.

Defense: 3*...an indifferent defensive team but Leonys Martin should help in center.

Rotation: 3*...Felix Hernandez...The King... is finally looking at the start of the downslope of his admirable career. Can Seattle rally and give him a taste of playoff baseball before the end?

They seem to think Wade Miley can pitch in their ballpark but they had to give up too much to the Red Sox to get him (100mph reliever Carson Smith and change) Walker, Karns and Paxton...one of these guys has to get a lot better for Seattle to win anything.)

Bullpen: 2½*...Benoit is ok but I am underwhelmed.

Leadership: 1½*...Cano has to pick it up to keep the front office from looking like suckers for what they agreed to pay him to bring him to their Death Valley ballpark. He is not a leader. A leader doesn't jog out every ground ball.

They travel more than any team in the big leagues because Seattle is so damn far away from everywhere else in baseball. Tires the players out with jet lag.

Yet another new manager in Scott Servais.

TOTAL: 13½ STARS...THIRD PLACE

4^th Place...OAKLAND

Lineup: 1½*...nothing remotely scary here. Not when Jed Lowrie is your number 3 hitter.

Defense: 2*...good outfield for a big park. Huge foul territory helps them here, hurts them offensively. Bad shortstop and lowest fielding percentage in majors.

Rotation: 3*...because of Sonny Gray...now an Ace.

Bullpen: 3*...much better this year with Doolittle healthy and Madson solid for the 8^th inning.

Leadership: 3*...no stress when nothing is expected. They are so out of the public mind that they sneak up on you with a bunch of no-names. Oakland always seems to have good team spirit. Their leader, Coco Crisp, may be healthy after neck trouble. BAD JUJU...suckiest stadium in baseball...a real rat's nest.

TOTAL: 12½ STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5^th place...LOS ANGELES

You're probably surprised to see them this low, but I think the Angels are headed for disaster this season.

Lineup: 3*...first of all...Pujols had surgery on his foot and it's bothered him for years. He hit his homers last year, but batted only .244. He is close to the end. Cole Calhoun hit 26 homers but struck out 162 times and had a .308 OBP. Trout was great but strikes out a lot and has stopped stealing bases.

Yuniel Escobar may help a little as their new third sacker, but the team as a whole finished near the bottom in every important offensive category except homers. They needed to add a hitting outfielder but didn't. Now they've got Daniel Nava playing a hitter's position in left and C.J.Cron is the DH.

Defense: 3*...last in double plays but new shortstop Andrelton Simmons should fix that.

Rotation: 1½*...C.J.Wilson is hurt. That leaves them with Garrett Richards and not much else. They needed to add a free agent or two but didn't.

Bullpen: 2½*...Houston Street is good but he's coming off a bad groin injury at the end of last season.

Leadership: 2*...Manager Scioscia may go if they struggle. Front office failed the off season. Nothing much on the farm. Hamilton disaster haunts them.

TOTAL: 12 STARS...FIFTH PLACE

Next Up: the ever-lovin National League East.

'Til then...PLAY BALL!