MARCO'S BASEBALL
BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 2
Todays' topic is the
AL CENTRAL.
Once again...here is
my 5 STAR rating system...scientific in every detail including
GOOD AND BAD TEAM JUJU!
(Note: my ratings
are based on historical norms, not just in relation to present day
teams. In other words...if I give a team a Leadership rating of 5,
I'm saying this team is comparable to great chemistry teams like
Jeter's Yankees of the late 90's and early 2000's...or
Stargell's Pirates of '79, or Dizzy Dean and the St.
Louis Gashouse Gang of the 30's. An historical 5 Star offensive club
would be the 70's Reds etc.)
5*stars= among the
best of all time.
4*stars=really good
3*stars=a little
above average
2 ½*stars=average
1*star=stinko
0*stars=a real
liability...they're playing the batboy.
I'm rating teams in 5
categories: offensive lineup, defense, rotation, bullpen and
leadership.
“Leadership”
is mostly managers and coaches, but also includes the roles of the
front office, clubhouse chemistry and inspiration and the ever
elusive “JUJU”...good or bad.
Breaking
offense down into categories like speed and power doesn't change the
overall effectiveness of your offense. You can do it like Kansas City
with small ball and speed or you can do like Toronto and brutalize
people to death. It's still just offense.
Having two categories of pitching weights the final
score accurately (I think) in that it recognizes the supreme
importance of your pitching staff.
I also figure in team depth.
AL
CENTRAL
1st
place...KANSAS CITY
They've been to two World Series in a row and people are
STILL underrating them. I've seen predictions that they would have a
losing season, even. People are looking at their weak starting
rotation and undervaluing their bullpen, defense and pugnacious
can-do attitude.
Lineup: 4*...people are looking at raw offense
and not making allowances for their extreme pitcher's ballpark. This
lineup is stacked with good line-drive hitters, speed men, contact
hitters and aggressive, knowledgeable pros. They had the fewest
strikeouts (973...only team with less than a thousand and 200 less
than anybody else)and also the fewest walks in baseball. They
finished 24th in home runs but 3rd in batting,
1st in steals and still 7th in runs.
Defense: 4½*...great most everywhere, super in
center, left, at first and catcher)
Rotation: 2½*...yep. Just average. But
remember...they only have to go 6 innings. Ventura could
eventually be an Ace...or he could stay an immature head-case.
Bullpen: 5*...Wade Davis is among best in
the league along with Chapman, Miller, and Kimbrel.
Their number 3...Soria...would be most team's number 1.
Leadership: 5*...a lot of these players came up
through the system together. They are a Band of Brothers and that
kind of leadership and team chemistry has been historically a
priceless commodity. Perez at catcher is an inspirational guy
who takes his lumps and keeps playing. Hosmer, Cain, Moose and
Alex Gordon...are all real leaders.
The front office had a long-term plan to rebuild and
stuck with it. They also tailored their club to their
ballpark...something some of the other teams should try.
They've proven themselves a team that is never out of a
game, and when you've done it time after time, you start believing in
yourselves and your teammates. That kind of confidence saturates a
team with a winning attitude.
TOTAL:
21 STARS...FIRST PLACE
2nd
place...CLEVELAND(tie)
Lineup: 2*...Kipnis and Lindor are good hitters.
Santana has power. Their best hitter... Michael Brantley...is out for
two months with a shoulder injury, and that's a tough injury for a
hitter to come back from. Everywhere else they are pretty weak.
Bottom half of baseball in runs, total bases and runners left on
base.
Defense: 3½*...this is a good team defensively.
Lindor might be special at short.
Rotation: 4*...the strength of the club. Carrasco
and Salazar could be stars on the rise to go with Corey
Kluber. But these pitchers get frustrated with a lack of
offensive support. Other good arms on the farm to fill in when
needed.
Bullpen: 3½*...might need another leftie
sometime against certain teams, but good arms here too. This pitching
staff as a whole finished 2nd in opponents batting average
last year. (.237)
Leadership: 3½*...manager Terry Francona
keeps this score high. The Indians haven't gotten over the hump yet.
If their pitchers turn into something like the Mets young staff they
could get some confidence. Front office is lax in getting offensive
players. (They need to have this pitching staff mixed with the
Indians offense of the 90's!)
TOTAL:
16½ STARS...2ND PLACE (tie)
2nd
place...MINNESOTA (tie)
This team baffles me. They barely have any pitchers who
can throw 90. They're near the bottom in batting and on base
percentage. And yet they win. They seem to have a gritty, spirited
ball club. I chalk it up to a tradition of professionalism and
leadership and some kind of Minnesota work ethic. Go Twinks!
Lineup: 3½*...the sum is greater than the parts.
Dozier, Sano and Mauer are prime. If rookie Byron
Buxton pans out and slugger Byung-ho Park delivers, this
could be a much better lineup.
Defense: 4*...a very good defensive team.
Rotation: 2½*...workmanlike but never
spectacular.
Bullpen: 2½*... nothing to write home about.
Fairly reliable.
Leadership: 4*...GOOD JUJU? I don't know what
else to attribute their success to. I think Paul Molitor was
one of the smartest baseball players ever. He seems to have
transferred that skill to managing. The front office realizes its
financial limitations and goes about it's business. They lost last
year's inspirational clubhouse leader Torii Hunter to
retirement. Let's see how they step up.
TOTAL:
16½ STARS...SECOND PLACE (tie)
4th
place...DETROIT
If Cabrera and Vmart and Verlander
were still in their primes...maybe. But those guys are injury prone
and the new guys can't pick up the slack. If they'd built a bullpen 6
years ago they might won 2 or 3 series by now.
Lineup: 3 ½*...they lose points by only having
one left handed hitter (switch hitter Victor Martinez) in the
everyday lineup. And he is very injury prone. Cabrera won another
batting title but hits fewer homers now that he can't push off on his
damaged ankle. Vmart favors a bad left knee. J.D.Martinez is a
great young power hitter to bat fifth and putting new comer Justin
Upton in the second spot between Kinsler and Cabrera could be a
master stroke to break him out. If all these players were in their
primes it would be a 5* lineup, lefties or no lefties.
Defense: 3½*...Gose is fast in center but
goes mental sometimes. Iglesias is a wizard at short but gets
hurt too much. I like McCann at catcher. Cabrera should be a
DH by now. Less chance of injury than playing first.
Rotation: 3*...Verlander has had to learn how to
get by with ordinary speed...he's now a number 3, not a number 1.
Jordan Zimmerman is a very good pitcher, but not a number 1.
He's pitched over 800 innings over the last 4 years. Fastball not
that fast any more. (It happens to all of them) Anibel Sanchez is
coming off injury. Norris and Pelfrey? Who knows what
they'll do. Suspect all around. Cross your fingers Tigers fans.
Bullpen: 2½*...improved but unproven. Seem to
be counting on a lot at closer from an aging KRod.
Leadership: 3*...even with all that hitting they
finished last in 2015. That has to hurt their confidence. There's
been some bad clubhouse JuJu with Iglesias. I liked Brad Ausmus as
a player but I'm not impressed with him as a manager. He makes me
miss Jim Leyland who I think was a better type of
manager for these older players.
TOTAL:
15½ STARS...FOURTH PLACE
5th
place...CHICAGO
There seems to be some kind of little war going on
between the front office and the players over Adam LaRoche's
young son hanging out in the clubhouse. It's given the season a sour
start. Just what they needed. LaRoche retired and left $13 mil on the
table rather than kick his son out after getting earlier permission.
Lineup: 1½*...this team was in the bottom six in
every offensive category except batting (22nd) and LOB
((10th...cause they never had anybody on base!)Jose
Abreu you can count on. They seem to think Todd Frazier
can bat cleanup and do what he was doing in hitter-friendly
Cincinnati but I predict Todd will have some of the
first-year-in-the-AL-blues like so many hitters before him who were
used to the NL style of fastball-first pitching patterns. (Albert
Pujols,Hanley Ramirez,Pablo Sandoval)Also, Frazier won last
year's home run derby at the All Star game...which is always the kiss
of death.
The rest of that lineup is very weak. Adam Eaton
is ok batting cleanup but ...guess what?...Melky Cabrera ain't
gonna hit .345 anymore like he did when he was on steroids with the
Giants. They lost LaRoche who was going to DH, so 5 through 9 is very
light.
Defense: 1½*...they coughed up furballs
in the field and played extremely sloppy ball. Newcomer Dioner
Navarro might help at catcher.
Rotation: 3½*...4 lefties in the
rotation. (Not so good when you've got to face Detroit 19 times!)
Sale is a great Ace. Quintana and Rodon are both
good. They all had ERA's around 3.50...could it be the terrible
defense behind them and the anemic offense? It's a team sport, guys!
Bullpen: 2½*...Dave Robertson was good at
closer and Zach Duke was occasionally effective.
Everybody else was just spare change.
Leadership:
1½*...they have to fire
Ventura if they get
off to another rancid start. It might not be his fault but there's
something rotten at U.S. Cellular Field. Four losing seasons in a
row. The Cubs are relevant again and the parade is passing the White
Sox by. At this point Hawk Harrelson is
their leader and he's an announcer! VERY BAD JUJU!
TOTAL:
10½ STARS...FIFTH PLACE
COMING
THIS WEEKEND: AL WEST! Tune into your inbox!
No comments:
Post a Comment