Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2016: ACES AND RACES

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016
RACES AND ACES”

What happened to all the Pitching Aces of the American League? We've been used to ten or eleven real stoppers per league in recent years, but half way through 2016 the AL is strangely bereft of True Number One Starters.

In the AL East the reason is, perhaps, that Boston, Baltimore and Toronto all have great hitting clubs and are bashing around the respective pitching staffs. Add in Detroit and Texas and that might be a reason why raw pitching numbers are high in the AL.

Toronto was counting on Stroman to be their Ace, but he has been coughing up way too many runs. Yeah, I know he's little and cute and game and all that but they hit him like a red-headed step child. He ranks 92 in baseball (the pitchers are ranked by ERA only) with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Instead, Marco Estrada (2.70/0.97) has been their best, but he has a Strikeout to Walk ration (87/33) much lower than the classical definition of an ACE. Most true Aces strikeout at least three times as many as they walk. Along with Sanchez and Happ, the Jays have 3 guys in the top 40 of baseball, which is better than anybody else in the East.

Boston thought they had their Ace when they got David Price, but at 4.68 and 1.22 he lags far behind the field. His K to BB ratio is great at 110/24 but he's given up a lot of extra base hits in the clutch. Stephen Wright has been their best starter at 2.18/1.14. Porcello has been OK but still only makes the list at number 52 in baseball. He does have a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio.

The best Baltimore can do is Chris Tillman at number 37.

New York has Tanaka at number 20 (3.01/1.03) which qualifies him as an Ace. Way down the list are Eovaldi with a 4.95 ERA and Pineda with 5.51. With their weak offense, it's no wonder the Yanks haven't made much noise yet. However, the Yankee's true strength has been in the bullpen where Betances, Miller and Chapman give them 3 closers in a row. When NY is ahead in the game after 6 they have been almost unbeatable. That's why I think NY is still in it... if they can get some offensive help for Carlos Beltran.

Tampa Bay was supposed to have great pitching, but Odorizzi is their best and he only ranks 53. Archer is occasionally brilliant but his ERA/WHIP is 4.70/1.43! Offensively, yesterday the Rays' batting order featured 5 players with batting averages under .210. that explains how they can be 4th in the majors in homers with 102 and still be 27th in runs scored with 290! Enjoy last place Tampa Bay!

Cleveland leads the AL Central with 4 starters in the top 42: Tomlin, Salazar, Bauer and Kluber. None of them has an outstanding ERA, but Tomlin's K/BB is 55/7 and Kluber's is 103/22. That's impressive. Look for Cleveland to stay near first place despite their rather modest offense. Kluber was a definite Ace last year but he has fallen back. The others haven't fully established Ace credentials but are still formidable.

Kansas City has lousy starting pitching this year. With all their injuries added in, it's a wonder they've managed to stay in second place. They certainly don't have anybody remotely resembling an Ace.

Detroit has Zimmerman and Verlander...neither in the top 40 of baseball and both with ERAs of 3.81. That doesn't qualify you as an Ace. It does qualify you for fourth place in the division.

The Chicago Pale Hose have a true Ace in Chris Sale: 5 to 1 K/BB, 2.80 ERA 0.99 WHIP. He's been lights out all year. But the Sox don't have enough anywhere else to be a strong contender, despite their early success this season.

Let's not even talk about Minnesota.

Texas is dominating the AL West with a balanced team. Cole Hamels qualifies as an Ace, but barely. He has an ERA of 2.79 but a WHIP of only 1.22. His K/BB ratio is under 3 to 1. A good pitcher for sure, but not a dominator like Sale and a full dozen NL pitchers.

Houston has climbed back into second place after a terrible start, but last year's Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel, is ranked as the 96th pitcher in baseball at 5.35/1.43. Doug Fister at 3.23/1.20 has been their only decent starter. Their bullpen also sucks, so don't expect the Astros to do much this season.

Seattle used to count on Felix Hernandez year in and year out to be a Bright Shining Ace in their rotation. Alas, the King. He's only started 10 games this year with a WHIP of 1.22. His ERA is still good, but he only strikes out 2 for every batter he walks now, after 7 consecutive years of over 3 to 1. His fastball has lost a lot. Well, he lasted a lot longer than most power pitchers and he can still help a team. It's just a shame that Seattle could never put a team together behind him that might get him into the Playoffs.
Taijuan Walker looked good early but has faded. Nobody else is close to the top tier, pitching-wise.

Oakland's Sonny Gray was just entering Ace-hood after last year, but an injury postponed that graduation.

Los Angeles has no Ace now that Garrett Richards is hurt.

So the AL has only 6 of the top 21 starters in baseball and only 3...Tanaka, Hamels and Sales...who have truly established themselves as Aces.

Of course, some of the numbers are skewed because of the DH in the AL. Al pitchers are going to generally have higher ERAs and lower strikeouts than NL pitchers. Still, it's hard not to conclude that in a pitching era, the AL doesn't have starters who scare you like Kershaw, Arrieta, Bumgarner, Scherzer, Strasburg and Syndergaard. I think maybe only Chris Sale could break into that list.

Right now, the NL has several all-time pitchers.
Kershaw is the best, with an ERA/WHIP of 1.57/0.67! His K/BB is a Greg Maddox, Pedro Martinez-ish 141/7!!! To get his ERA any lower, he'd have to throw about 10 shutouts in the second half. (It's been done...look at Grover Cleveland Alexander in 1916. 33 wins and 16 of them were shutouts! Actually old Pete had seven years in a row of that kind of success. He led the league almost every year in wins, innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts. Then he went off to World War One and got gassed and shell-shocked in the trenches which brought on epileptic seizures that he had for the rest of his life. Alex never was right after that and drank too much but still won over 20 games three more times and won another triple crown in 1920. He was the hero of the 1926 World Series when, in the seventh game, he came out of the Cardinal bullpen after winning the previous day and beat the Ruth-led Yankees. Everybody thought he was hung over, but he was actually having trouble with his seizures. He struck out Tony Lazzeri with the bases loaded in one of the most dramatic moments in World Series history. Lest we forget!)

Jake Arietta is right there behind Kershaw at 1.74/0.98 107/35.
Bumgarner 1.99/1.02 122/29.
Syndergaard 2.08/0.99 110/12.
Jose Fernandez 2.31/1.00 136/29.

Even Julio Teheran, laboring in relative anonymity down in hapless Atlanta, has a line of 2.46/0.89
99/24. That's pretty good, and probably why the Red Sox are offering up some of their top prospects to Atlanta in trade talks for Julio.

In NL news I guess the big story is still Chicago in first place in the Central. However, I discern a little complacency on the part of the Cubbies. Everybody has been saying how great they are and I think they might believe it. They've been having a lull while St. Louis is winning. Bryant just hit 3 homers and 2 doubles against the Reds which makes the Cubs fans even more relaxed. Price goeth before the Fall!

Let's remember something...these are the Cubs! Any damn thing can happen to knock these poor jokers out of a pennant. (But not if that pitching staff keeps producing. I expected Arietta and Lester (also pitching like an Ace) to do well. Lackey has been strong too. But Hammels? Where did he come from?)

If the Cubs trade for bullpen help I think they can hold off the Ghost Demons of the Past...goats and black cats and Bartmans and grounders through the legs of Leon Durham...Oh hell...I gotta stop...I'm getting feverish....

My pre-season pick...the Pirates...have been flat all year. I even successfully predicted that this would be the breakout year for their young outfielders Marte and Polanco (they both should make the All Star squad). Hasn't made a difference. They can't beat good teams. They've lost almost every game to Chicago and St. Louis. McCutcheon has slumped all year. Garrett Cole has been hurt and the rest of the staff can't match up with all those good starters the Cubs and Cards have. The everyday players seem resigned to losing right now...they have no faith in their starters. Closer Melancon has been really, really good....but the Pirates are still below .500. So are they just going to go gently into that Good Night? Give everybody up to Free Agency and rebuild yet again? Pittsburgh deserves better.

Meanwhile..the Cardinals lurk.

Over in the NL East Washington and New York are figuring out how to tank enough games to let the Miami Marlins catch up with them. Yelitch and Ozuna (.873 and .948 OPS respectively) the Marlins young outfielders, have excelled. The team is surging even without druggie Dee Gordon and with Stanton not hitting. (Giancarlo is pulling off pitches...stepping into the bucket as they say. I guess you'd bail out too if you kept remembering a 95mph fastball sailing up into your face. I hope he banishes the demons.)

Let's postpone the coronation of Bryce Harper. He's hitting .259 with no power the last month and a half. Pitchers stopped throwing fastballs to him. (Wouldn't you?) and he can't seem to adjust. He's got the top average hitter in baseball (Daniel Murphy) batting behind him so can't blame that. They walked him for awhile and it messed with his head.

The Mets? I keep waiting for the next elbow to pop. I hope it doesn't happen...I'm not a sadist. I just think those guys throw too hard with funky deliveries and the manager leaves them in too long. They wanted Syndergaard to come back on regular rest after his elbow got tweaked for the second time this season. They wanted him to pitch against the Nats. Stupid! Give the guy at least one turn off! He's been so great this year. Why risk it? Meanwhile deGrom has been a little off all year. (He's still at 2.67/1.12) Matz (3.29/1.19) has been steady and the Ageless One...Bartolo Colon... continues to be one of the most entertaining and effective players in baseball. (2.86/1.17) Last year's Ace, Brian Harvey (aka “The Dark Knight”...bet he cringes when he hears that nickname now) has noodle-brained himself to a mark of 4.64/1.38.

So...the Mets still have an outstanding staff, all things considered. Familia has been lights out in the bullpen. So why do they seem so...ordinary? Where's the spark? They need a Bud Harrelson type to get them fired up.

Out West the Giants have gone on a tear. The Dodgers kind of amble along just behind...winning enough to make you crazy. Why don't they go out and get some help for Kershaw besides Kazmir and Maeda? They need more bullpen! Everybody can see it! They don't seem to care if they win anything. They want to preserve their young future stars. Sure, I get it. Good idea to preserve your future...but not when you have the best pitcher in baseball right now in the present. Plus productive hitters like Gonzalez and comers like Seager. You can win now! Kershaw can't pitch like this forever. Hardly anybody has even 5 great years in a row. Kersh is on number 6.

Are we seeing another King Felix scenario in Dodgertown?
It's been since 1988 Los Angeles!

Has anybody noticed that the Diamondbacks are getting better? Goldy is hitting now. This guy Lamb has added some power to the lineup and Greinke is Greinke again. If only ol' Shelby Miller hadn't robbed them blind on that disastrous trade with Atlanta! Talk about coughing up furballs!

What? The Rockies still haven't traded Cargo?

Hasta La Vista, Baby!

*SPECIAL SOCCER SALUTE: Iceland beats England 2-1...my Icelandic wife goes batshit! If only I could get her to watch even ONE baseball game!