MARCO’S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2023: SPEEDBALL COMIN’!
After
YEARS of watching this sport slow down as each season the average
game gets longer and longer until NO CHILD under twelve can stay
awake to watch a whole 9 inning contest, the Fathers of Baseball
finally institute a pitch clock to try to up the pace of the Grand
Old Game.
Say
Halleluljah!
I
once thought the pitch clock was a cheesy gimmick that would
forever besmirch the honor of summer or something. Now, after
watching 4-hour regular season games and 5 hour playoff games... I am
a convert. Speed this shit up!
A
modest but sufficient amount of time has been allocated for the
pitcher to focus and pitch. (Remember Bob Gibson!) The batter
has a little less room to maneuver, but I have no pity for the
batting glove tighteners who are so prolific in baseball. Get in
there and hit, you human rain delays! (remember Mike Hargrove
!)*
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=lm&q=mlb+the+human+rain+delay&atb=v139-1&ia=videos&iax=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D8tGm_JajqLo
There
are going to be some peculiar problems of course. I saw a Mets
hitter get a called strike because he was waiting for the runner on
first , Pete Alonso, to return to first after sprinting (in a
polar bearish way) on a foul ball!
The
players don’t really mind the clock and see the need for it and
that’s the best part.
Another
change is the dreaded shift being retired. All dead pull
hitters, and especially lefties, have seen their offensive numbers
crumble since the shift became common. Now a team must keep two
infielders on each side of the infield and they must have a foot in
the dirt. Baseball expects this to restore the hallowed base hit up
the middle and let more ground balls get through for hits. I hope it
does, but I am more reluctant on this rule change.
Baseball
strategy and the stats say that a team scores less runs if you shift
on them...but that’s because too many hitters are too lazy to learn
to hit the other way. They see that the big money goes to power
hitters and if they become oppo hitters, their power stats suffer. So
they keep pulling into the shift and hitting 20 home runs a year.
But their batting averages are down in the .200’s.
I
maintained for many years that Pete Rose and Stan Musial
and the jolly chums of their era would retire the shift after one or
two games of hitting to the open part of the diamond. But the Joey
Gallos of the world were still with us and players just
kept hitting it to the second baseman who was standing on the right
field line 200 feet from home plate and throwing out David Ortiz
who thought he hit a double.
So
maybe it’s for the best, this shift control. It’s like the
infield fly: a peculiar accommodation of a play that needs to be
banned for the betterment of baseball. We don’t want to see a bunch
of double plays because Eddie Collins (the first man to
practice this) was dropping pop ups on purpose so he could force the
lead runner.
Outfielders
are still allowed to move around where they want, but the shift is
not as effective with just them moving and not the infielders. But
at least a manager can still move an extra man into the infield to
try to get that groundball out at the end of a tight contest.
The
third big rule change was the limit to attempted pick off throws.
I think this rule may prove troublesome. Somebody forgot a
little-known statistical fact: stolen base ATTEMPTS…(I
said...ATTEMPTS!) drop by 50% when the pitcher makes at least two
throws to first when a runner is there. The new rule mandates a balk
be called when a pitcher makes a third unsuccessful attempt to pick
off that runner. So after two unsuccessful pick off attempts, the
runner can pretty much figure he doesn’t have to worry too much
about the pitcher’s move. (Unless the pitcher is Andy
Pettite...98 career pick offs recorded). With a balk being the
likely outcome of a third pick off attempt, most pitchers will say
“to hell with it...my catcher will just have to throw him out if he
takes off.” And especially if there’s a man on third and that
balk will drive him in for a run… how often do you think a pitcher
will try a pick off in that situation? No more polite little “just
keeping his lead shortened” kind of pick offs either.
My
prediction: several faster players...your Mookie Betts, Trea
Turner types… are going to go crazy on the bases this year. You
may see those two put up 60 steals/30 homer type seasons. The thing
is that there are a whole lot of pitchers in baseball who just
haven’t mastered the slide step or honed their pickoff moves to any
extent at all...and those pitchers are going to pay. Steals will go
up at least a hundred per cent. Baseball wanted more action...well
they’ll get it... but they risk making the running game a farce.
Long term consequences: pitchers will have to adapt and learn better
moves. Catchers with rifle arms will become essential for every team
or they will get run out of contention.
Other
changes: they’ve enlarged the bases. Whoopee! An extra 3
inches all around! Better! Bigger! That runner was safe by a toe! I
have long petitioned going to squishy bases to eliminate those broken
ankle races down the line when the runner hits that stiff bag and
turns it. This move doesn’t solve that problem. I’m not sure what
effect it WILL have.
The
RULE CHANGE THAT WE REALLY NEED… CHANGE THE MOUND!
I’m
sure you remember 1969. that was the year AFTER the infamous 1968
YEAR OF THE PITCHER. To save time, look at this history lesson from
Michael Clair (written in 2015):
Seven
starters had an ERA under 2.00
Remember the big deal we made about two starters
finishing with ERAs below two in Cy Young winner Jake
Arrieta and likely free-agent-piggy-bank-breaker Zack
Greinke? Imagine having seven of them. While
that number is only eleventh all-time, all the other seasons ahead of
'68 came before 1917. (1909 has the record with a shocking
19 pitchers finishing the year with a sub-2.00 ERA.)
And while luminaries like Gibson and Luis Tiant are on the list,
with a second-tier of strong starters like Sam McDowell and Tommy
John, there are also pitchers like Denny McLain (career 101 ERA+, all
while winning 31 games), Bobby Bolin (career 104 ERA+) and Dave
McNally (career 106 ERA+). Those are fine pitchers each, but not
necessarily record breakers.
Carl Yastrzemski won the batting title ... with
a .301 average
It wasn't unusual for Yaz to win a batting title. After all,
including '68, he won three of them in his career and was coming off
the title in 1967 when he hit .326. Not only was Yastrzemski's .301
average the lowest ever for a batting title winner, but he won the AL
title by 11 points over Danny Cater.
While Pete Rose won in the NL with a .335 average, he was one of
the few exceptions. The Majors set the record for the lowest-ever
batting average (.237) and second-lowest on-base percentage (.299,
two points behind 1908).
Entire teams couldn't hit
Seven teams hit .230 or lower. The Yankees, as a team, hit just
.214. Mickey Mantle, in his final season, led the team with a 143
OPS+, but hit just .237/.385/.398 as a 36-year-old first baseman.
The White Sox scored a meager 2.86 runs per game, with only one
player reaching double-digit home runs: third baseman Pete Ward. And
while he knocked out 15 homers, he also hit .216/.354/.366. The
Dodgers and Mets weren't much better, averaging just 2.90 runs per
game.
It wasn't pretty.
So
what did MLB do? Well, they realized there was a problem, first of
all. And they took extreme measures to swing back some of the
advantage to the poor hitters. They lowered the mound from 15 inches
to 10 inches, restored the strike zone to its pre-1961 look of top of
the knee to armpits instead of knee to shoulder, (After Roger
Maris hit 61 taters in 1961, commissioner and Babe Ruth
worshiper Ford Frick had enlarged the strike zone to keep
sluggers from threatening Ruth’s home run records again) and
strictly enforced the ban on doctored pitches.
These
changes worked. Runs scored jumped from average 6.84 to 8.14 per
game. Batting champs started hitting .340 again instead of .301. And
although with all these remedies it’s hard to tell which one really
had the most effect on the balance between pitching and hitting in
baseball, the height of the mound was the most dramatic. A full one
third of the mound height was cut, and it was actually more than that
because grounds crews had been cheating all over the game. The rules
said the mound could be no more than 15 inches above the level of the
baselines. The mound at Dodger Stadium in the sixties was probably
about 17-18 inches. That’s how the Dodgers kept winning pennants
with Drysdale and Koufax pitching shutouts and their
bunt and steal philosophy on offense.
I
maintain that the balance of power needs another tweak. We should
have addressed it when Randy Johnson was pitching to dramatize
the shocking effect of a pitcher 6’10” pouring fastballs and
sliders from just a 10” mound. And back in 1968 the average height
of a major league pitcher was right around 6 feet tall. Now it is
almost 6’3”. Tall pitchers with 100 mph fastballs and 94 mph
sliders. Forget about it. That’s why we’re getting a World Series
team like the Phillies striking out 77 times in a 6-game
series! I say, it’s time to lower the mound again. Hack 3” off to
equalize the altitude advantage of today’s taller pitchers and give
the hitters a chance.
Some
folks think they ought to adjust the distance of the rubber to the
plate from it’s hallowed (and accidental) distance of 60’6”.
Unchanged since 1894, they want to move the rubber back. I’m
against that because the breaking balls now are breaking at about the
right moment when they approach the strike zone. Tall pitchers with
long arms have altered the geometry of the point of release, but I
say try the mound height first.
I
would also re-emphasize the top of the knee strike zone. Too many
umpires are calling an unhittable bottom of the knee strike.
BASEBALL
GOES WORLDWIDE!:
Another
signal event in baseball this season is the return of the World
Baseball Classic after a 5 year Covid caused hiatus. Fans like us
got to revel in a truly exciting brand of baseball with major stars
motivated by patriotism and love of the game. You basically had a
bunch of All-Star Dream Teams matching Hall of Fame lineups with each
other while second and third line pitchers (with a few notable
exceptions) got taken apart in two inning controlled outings. And
after the “Pool” series of games, every game was like a seventh
game win- or- go- home situation! Watched by over 70 million people!
Culminating in a tense and dramatic final game with Shohei Ohtani
fanning his pal Mike Trout to lead Japan over a great USA
team!
This
Classic is a welcome diversion every three years and should be
encouraged. Go ahead and limit the pitchers to two innings and keep a
strict pitch count. The Classic is the best thing that’s happened
to promote baseball since the universal DH! (Yes, I said it and mean
it.) And did you notice all those little product decals stuck all
over the player uniforms? While I deplore the Nascar imitation, it is
obvious that somebody somewhere is going to make big money off of the
WBC!
CONTENDER
PREDICTIONS FOR THE SEASON:
I
came up with a prediction tool last year when I postulated the Rule
of Twos...which, simply stated, means that teams that advance far
in the playoffs almost always have certain characteristics. Namely:
At
least 2 MVP caliber offensive players in the lineup
(approximately .300 average/30 homer/100 ribby/.900 OPS type guys.
At
least 2 starting pitcher Ace-level players with high innings
pitched
At
least 2 closer type relievers with high strikeout to walk ratios
At
least 2 gold glove candidate defensive players of the 4
“up-the-middle” defense positions catcher, shortstop, center
field and second base.
As
a short cut evaluating tool, I have found this to be a consistent
indicator. Especially when you examine how certain teams who lack
these criteria compensate in other ways. For instance, the St.
Louis Cardinals don’t really have two true Aces but they have
Gold Glove candidates (and winners!) at six positions. That’s major
compensation for weakness elsewhere.
A.L.
CENTRAL:
1/
(numero uno favored to win the division)
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANS:
I
want to start at the Central instead of the East to West thing
because the Guardians are trying to do something different and are
getting very little credit for it. Last year they came within a
couple of hits of beating the glamour-puss Yankees in the
Playoffs and advancing to face Houston.
The
Guardians don’t hit many homers or strike out as much as most
teams.
They
have the best strikeout percentage in the AL.
Instead
of the power- first paradigm, the Guard Dogs have committed to youth,
speed and contact hitting with great pitching depth. How refreshing!
They aren’t all the way to being a dominant team but this year
they’ll sneak up on people because of the new pick off rule. The
Guardians have 5 speedsters in their lineup capable of 40+ steals.
(They stole 119 bases in 2022 and were caught 27 times...better than
a 4 to 1 ratio. They’ve stolen 21 and got caught twice so far in
2023. On schedule to steal about 270!)
2
Hitters?: They only have one offensive superstar...Jose
Ramirez. They signed Josh Bell to try to get that
second big bat in the lineup.
2
Aces?: They have an Ace starter in Shane Beiber backed by
Tristan MacKenzie.
(Just
saw the headline: MacKenzie torn chest muscle...8 weeks!)
2
Closers?: Emmanuel Clase is the best reliever in baseball
now that Diaz of the Mets is hurt. Trevor Stephan is
also great.
2
Star Defenders?: They have the Gold Glove center
fielder in Miles Straw and the GG second sacker in Andres
Gimenez. Stephen Kwan also won a Gold Glove playing left.
Shane Beiber won one fielding his position on the mound.
One
big plus: the Guardians have a wise, astute and approachably
inspirational manager in Terry Francona.
2/
CHICAGO WHITE SOX:
I
consider the Sox a contender only if everything goes right. Last year
everything went wrong. They went from looking like a lock in the
Central to the mere walking carcass of pain they became after one
serious injury after another crippled the squad and left the White
Sox sinking into the “Dank Tarn” of mediocrity. (Metaphor
courtesy of Edgar Allen Poe: Fall of the House of
Usher). Retired manager Tony LaRussa showed that it’s
hard to reclaim the crown, even when you revolutionized the game with
your “what the hell, let’s bring in another reliever”
philosophy.
2
Hitters?: The Sox still have Tim Anderson, Eloy
Jimenez, Luis Roberts and Yoan Moncada. None of the
above had a good season. (Well, Tim batted .301 but he was hurt all
year.) Jose Abreu...Big Cuban Daddy at first base...is gone to
the Astros. They signed Andrew Benintendi to play outfield and
he may do well now that the shift is banned.
2
Aces?: Dylan Cease is amazing and may win the Cy Young
unless he falls prey to “Chicago White Sox” bi-polar-cursed- by-
God syndrome. Kopech is coming off an injury and doesn’t
look good...yet. Giolito had a 4.90 ERA last year coming off
of Covid. They are really depending on an aging but stalwart Lance
Lynn and Mike Clevinger to start.
2
Closers?: right now they have zero Closers. One of the top
closers in baseball, Liam Hendriks, is non-functioning on the
IL. Not much to back him up. Reynaldo Lopez I guess. Can they
resurrect Joe Kelly?
2
Defense up the Middle?: Roberts in center. Benintendi
in left. 1 and a half.
3/
MINNESOTA TWINS:
Everybody
talks about Carlos Correa
like he’s a superstar on top of the shortstop stack. Carlos has
power and a cannon
arm. But in 8 seasons he’s played over
130 games just 3 times. He’s hit over .290 twice. He’s hit over
25 homers once. He’s batted in over 90 runs twice. And he’s
played the great majority of his games in a hitter’s ballpark.
Carlos is a great baseball talent who still has a lot to prove. He’s
on the second level of star shortstops in the majors, not the first.
Correa
is on the Twins where he and
Byron Buxton (1 year
out of 9 over 100 games played) demonstrate that there is one tool
that must be added to the traditional 5 baseball tools (hit for
average, hit for power, run, field, throw) and that is DURABILITY.
I don’t rate Correa in the top five shortstops. He was enormously
lucky to get the Big Money after all that free agent bad leg
folderol.
Also-rans
in the Central: (to be covered in a future newsletter)
4/
DETROIT TIGERS:
A
whole team of hitters who could top 150 Ks this season and pitchers
with terrible WHIPS. This is a rebuild? Disaster! Javier
Baez must wonder why he came
here as he flails at another slider in the dirt.
Here’s
a sentimental goodbye tour for Miggy Cabrera.
He’s only the ghost of himself now as a player, but he’s a loving
soul, a great hitter and a baseball hero who will not be forgotten.
5/
KANSAS CITY ROYALS:
Note
to Royals...your park is too big for
you to be a Tater
Team. (Unless
you’re Sal Perez).
Go back to the running game
and defense.
See... Cleveland Guardians.
A.L.
EAST:
1/NEW
YORK YANKEES:
As
usual, the East is competitive. That being said, nobody stands out as
being a dominant team. The Yankees at least have been vetted in the
heat of the Playoffs, so I give them pride of position in my
evaluation BUT...the Yanks were a .500 team in the second half of
2022. They stumbled...not rolled...into the Playoffs and were no
match at all for the Astros. The Yanks were...and still are...a One
Man Team. And I don’t mean
they’re
the Gleyber Torres-
Yankees. The Yanks were blessed with a career year from a healthy
Aaron Judge and Hiz
Honor came through. But the
distance between first and fourth place in
the East is about
one hamstring .
Let’s look at the Twos…
2
Hitters?: Judge
and Anthony Rizzo...(The
smartest move the Pinstripers made in the off season was re-signing
Rizzo to be Aaron Judge’s comfort animal. Probably got Judge to
sign with that move.) The
only other everyday player besides Judge who had an OPS over .800.
Stanton hit 31
dingers while playing in only 110 games. (Pretty much his average)
They qualify in this category mainly because Aaron was roughly the
equivalent of 2 good offensive stars. They need DJ LeMahieu
to come back strong. Is new
shortstop Anthony Volpe
the new Jeter? I
say...yes he has a chance.
2
Aces?: Yes. Gerrit
Cole and Nestor
Cortes. But they have problems
after that. Severino and
Rodon and Montas are
all hurt. The Yanks have some depth...but they aren’t near as
imposing as they looked earlier.
2
Closer-Relievers?:
Clay Holmes and I
guess any of several more guys. No
more Aroldis Chapman
but they are quite strong in
the pen.
2
Gold Glove candidates up the middle?: Presumed
center fielder Judge
is more suited to right field but he is a candidate for a Gold
Glove.
He’s a very good outfielder. Jose Trevino
won the GG at catcher.
2/
TORONTO BLUE JAYS:
The
Jays are now officially on the clock. They are bristling with talent
in the everyday lineup and look
thoroughly fearsome. Trouble is, they don’t win anything. Last year
they finished second to the Yankees
and then folded like a wet handkerchief to the Mariners
in their own home park in the Playoffs.
Young
Vlad (Son of “The Impaler”) Guerrero
didn’t maintain the spectacular hitting he showed in 2021. He
was merely very good. Bo Bichette
had a sleepy bat for much of the season and George Springer
got hurt early in the year but
rallied.
They
had no left handed hitters to speak of so this season they let
go one of their steadily
productive hitters, Teoscar Hernandez,
to the Mariners and signed
Daulton Varsho from
the Arizona Diamondbacks.
I would not have made that
move.
Teoscar always hit and had a great clubhouse presence for that team.
They also worked Whit
Merrifield, Brandon
Belt and Kevin
Kiermaier into their lineup so
they might have solved the leftie hitter problem.
What
the Jays really need is another starter to deepen their rotation.
They had former Cy Younger Kevin Gausman
and Alex Manoah. They
picked up Chris Bassitt
and he needs to be good. Ross Stripling had
a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. That’s good so
of course they traded him to San Francisco.
The
Jays have a scary, 7 deep lineup on offense. Like
everybody else, the Blue Jays need to keep their pitching healthy to
finally break through.
2’s:
Hitters?: Vlad and
Bo... and a lot Mo’!
Aces?: Gausman
and Manoah
Closers?: Romano,
Cimber and Zach Pop
Defense GG?: Merrifield
at utility, Kiermaier in center, Varsho
in left or right, Chapman at third, Vlad at first,
Berrios at pitcher...that’s six candidates for a GG.
3/
TAMPA BAY RAYS:
The
good-enough-to-win
Rays, they should call them.
Their pitching is incredible
but their offense is just barely good enough to win 90 odd games and
qualify for the Playoffs.
2
Hitters?
No. they have Randy
Arozarena but he’s not really
an MVP candidate, just a real flashy, fun player who hits 20 long
balls and bats
.263 with an OPS of .773. A
very weak lineup, but spirited. You’d of thought that Wonder
Wander Franco would have come alive by now. Speed, power,
hitting ability… but not much experience. Well they signed him long
term. Maybe he’ll Pop in his third year like Vlad Jr. did up in
Canada.
2
Aces? Shane
McClanahan and Drew
Rasmussen. Strong depth as
well.
2
Relievers? Yes. There’s
a bunch of them in the bullpen and the Rays use them all willy-nilly
whenever they feel like it. This system has worked great for the Rays
but it’s hard to keep track.
It’s baseball Socialism.
Typical of the Rays.
2
GG types up the middle? No,
although David Peralta
was a finalist in the National League. He plays left. The Rays
finally let Kevin Kiermaier,
the perennial
GG center fielder, move on down the line. He is now playing GG
caliber outfield for Toronto.
Also Rans:
4/
BOSTON RED SOX:
Wheel
spinners. They went out and spent money on Justin
Turner, Adam Duval, Masataka Yoshida
etc. but lost Xander
Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and
Rich Hill.
Last year they let Kyle
Schwarber
walk and seems like he was pretty good for the Phillies. Led the
National League in home runs as a matter of fact. If they finish
last it’s bye bye Bloom
(Chief
Baseball Officer Chaim).
The Red Sox really don’t have near enough pitching to compete in
the East.
5/
BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
They
don’t have enough pitching yet but they’re getting closer. Watch
out...they’ve got a strong
group of rookies and players just a notch down.
A.L.
WEST
1/ HOUSTON ASTROS:
They ought to give the MVP to
Scouting Director Kris Gross. It’s now obvious that the
Astros retooled their offense on the fly and replaced three great
offensive players with three new ones all while going to the World
Series 4 times since 2017.
Farewell George Springer,
Chris Correa and Yuli (batting champ) Gurriel. Most teams
would have caved after that. Never mind that the Stros also lost Cy
Young pitchers Garret Cole and Justin Verlander.
Hello Kyle Tucker, Jeremy
Pena and Jose Abreu. Add the best looking young power
hitter since Willie McCovey… Yordan Alvarez. Get to know
Framber Valdez and Christian Vazquez...your new Aces.
These new players were raised in the Houston system with the
exception of Abreu, a free agent from Chicago. A seamless
transition. Even with the Jose Altuve thumb injury, the Astros are
formidable.
2 hitters?: Oh...I
guess! Tucker and Alvarez are both MVP types and that’s
not even counting Altuve when he gets back around June. Joe
Abreu and Pena and Bregman pick up the scraps. Only San
Diego and Toronto can compare to this lineup.
2 Aces?: Probably 3.
2 Closers?:
Maybe the best bullpen in baseball. Their whole pitching staff is
loaded with pitchers who bring it at the century mark. They strike
out more hitters than any other staff.
2 Defensive wizards?:
Pena is pretty damn good at short and won the GG. McCormick
showed what he can do in center with that catch in the World Series.
Gold Glove contending Catcher Maldonado is one of the best
handlers of pitchers. There’s a reason he’s always in the lineup
even while he’s batting .090 or something. And Kyle Tucker
won the GG for his work in right.
Astros grade out as the
highest rated team in the majors in my system which is why I have
confidence in it. Sign the Stros up for 105 wins at least.
2/
SEATTLE MARINERS:
2 Hitters?: One
short after rookie Jrod. They need more out of Suarez
at third and maybe Teoscar Hernandez or Kelenic
can have a good season.
2 Aces?: Nah. They‘ve
got one great one...Luis Castillo... who came over from the
Reds last year and pitched like a killer for them. If they need to
win one Big Game, he’s the boy. But I don’t consider Robbie
Ray an Ace anymore. Logan Gilbert is looking better and
better but he’s not Ace status yet.
2 Closers?: the M’s
are very plus in the pen with Andres Munoz coming back from
the IL to help Paul Sewald, Penn Murphy and Erik Swanson.
I wish I thought the Mariners
could hang with the Astros but I really don’t think they have the
team unless they get another Castillo. It was great to see
them wake up last year and Jrod is a good one. But I think
the new rules are going to favor speed over the same old power game.
“Let’s field a lineup of walruses and let them hit homers and
strike out 200 times and bat .200.” That game was killing baseball.
Julio is the spitting image of the new player that’s going to bring
baseball back from the doldrums.
3/ LOS ANGELES ANGELS:
The team everybody wants to
get into the playoffs. But it’s not happening unless a hurricane
flattens Minute Maid Park in Houston and the Astros have to move to
Lufkin.
The Angels have two of the top
ten players in baseball. (You know who they are...the other eight are
Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna, Aaron Judge, Rafael
Devers, Pete Alonso, Jose Ramirez and Baby
Vlad...save the pitchers for another list. Ohtani makes it
without even counting his pitching! Juan Soto should make it
but his bat has been cursed by a gypsy queen or something.) But look
at the Angel’s twos:
2 Hitters?:
Yes...obviously. Light in the order aside from these two.
2 Aces?: Nope. Just one
Japanese Dandy.
2 Closers?: NO!
2 GG types up the middle?:
Let’s be generous and say that Mike Trout is still a GG
contender. Fletcher was a GG finalist at second but now he’s
at shortstop. Luis Ringifo was a GG finalist as a utility
infielder. Aside from that the Angels are very average.
4/ TEXAS RANGERS:
They are alive and spending
big money. At least the Houstonians will have to pay attention when
they play this team. But they lost 94 games last year and I only
include them as a really unlikely third Wild Card possibility because
they signed DeGrom and Eovaldi.
2 Hitters?:
No. Nathaniel Lowe is the only Ranger over .800 OPS.
Seager hit 33 dings but .771 is not an MVP type OPS.
2 Aces?: DeGrom and
Eovaldi if healthy can deserve that status.
2 Closers: Will
Smith and Dane Dunning with leftie Brock Burke
backing them up. Yes!
2 Defenders: Semien
rates a finalist GG.
Non-contender yet again:
OAKLAND A’S:
This team will suffer until
they finally find a way to get a new ballpark and/or city to play in.
Why can’t MLB get this done?
N.L.
EAST:
1/
ATLANTA:
Yet
again the Bravos prevail! It’s getting boring in the East in that
no matter how hot the pennant race Atlanta always winds up winning
the division. Philly
went to the Series and the Mets
have got everybody excited. No matter. I believe Atlanta will win
this division.
2
Hitters?: You betcha. Olson
was a 2022
MVP possible. Austin Riley was
too. Acuna may steal 60 bases. Michael Harris Jr.
is productive. Newcomers Sean Murphy
(catcher) and Orlando Arcia (shortstop)
should help but we’ll see.
The offense is deep and they have some speed to go with macho level
power.
2
Aces?: 3
lefties are on the IL including Ace Max Fried
(15 day) If Fried comes back soon they’ll have him and Spencer
Strider as co-Aces.
2
Closers: more like 4 closer
candidates.
2
Vacuums up the middle?: GG
winner Dansby Swanson
went free agent to the Cubs. Their
catchers Travis d’Arnaud and
Sean Murphy are both
GG candidates. Olson at
first, Albies at
second and Max Fried
at pitcher are all GG nominees. So that’s two GG possibles up the
middle and extras.
2/
NEW YORK METS:
Mets
fans were almost giddy at the prospect of the Mets’ off season
additions. Then Correa’s
leg got X-rayed and voided that deal. Then Verlander
got injured in Spring training. Then Diaz,
their Closer, over celebrated at the WBC and tore his Achilles. Then
Scherzer lost his
control and emptied his
resin bag...into his glove!.
Carrasco and Quintana
have arm troubles...
Suddenly,
the Mets are 7-6 and Alonso
is carrying the team.
2
Hitters?: Alonso and either
Lindor or Marte.
Generally a real good offense.
2
Aces?: Not looking good. If
Scherzer turns it
around Senga might
deliver. The staff is shaky right now.
2
Closers? Dave Robertson has
been good so far as the emergency fill-in for Diaz
but nobody is composing bullpen- walk- out trumpet solos for him.
2
Defensive Daddies?: Lindor at
short and Nido at
catcher. I think Brandon
Nimmo is a Gold Glove candidate
in center. The Mets have the horses.
3/
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
They
disappointed all season long but suddenly turned it on in the
Playoffs and acquitted themselves admirably in the World Series.
2
Hitters?: Well, one on the
shelf...Harper. Their
big two right now are Schwarber and
Trea Turner. This season so far
the Phillies hit but can’t score.
Marsh is hitting .387 and
Bryson Stott (second base)
is hitting .420.
And
the team is 4-8!
2
Aces?: If
they pitch like this, no way
Jose! If Nola and
Wheeler don’t pitch
like they did last year the Phils are doomed. No depth.
2
Closers?: ...and a
vulnerable bullpen. Jose
Alvarado has been spectacular.
18 K’s...0 walks. Right
now they are using Craig Kimbrel
as their set up.
Craig has been awesome and I love him but... it’s late in the day
Craig.
2
Def GG’s?: Marsh
in center. J.T. Realmutto
at catcher. Turner at
short. Below average at a couple of places.
Nolo
contendere:
4/
MIAMI MARLINS:
They
own the current Ace of Aces… Sandy Alcantara. They
have a couple more highly touted pitchers, especially Jesus
Luzardo. The everyday lineup is
very weak except for A.L.
batting champ Luis Arraez who
came over from Minnesota and is hitting .500.
5/
WASHINGTON NATIONALS:
They
won it all in 2019 when they had Strasburg, Scherzer,
Corbin, Rendon, Turner and
Soto. Now they’ve got nothing
but a sweet memory. And
hopefully, some good prospects in the minor leagues…
N.L.
CENTRAL: (weakest Division in MLB)
1/
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS:
The
Central has been withering on the vine as of late. The Cubs
are just now addressing their demise as a contender. The Brewers
have been self-destructing in
fear of star-level contracts and sending their best players
elsewhere. Who do they think they are? Oakland?
And please don’t speak of the shattered remains of the Reds
and the Pirates. If
San Diego can risk it
all twice in ten years and at least TRY to win something for their
fans, can’t the Pirates keep even one or two of their best players?
Evidently not.
That
leaves the Cardinals to win the Central again...and they’re not
strong enough to dominate this weak division.
So far in 2023 they are 6-8.
2
Hitters?: Goldy
and Nolan Arenado. Nolan Gorman
has had a sizzling start at DH. Jordan Walker
could be the X-Factor with all kinds of talent but still a rookie.
One way the Cards can get more offense would be to emphasize the
running game. Along with defense, that’s one place the Cards can
dominate.
2
Aces?: Jordan Montgomery and
Flaherty with a big maybe for
Adam Wainwright and
Miles Mikolas. I
don’t know but they seem vulnerable in this area.
2
Closers?: Ryan
Helsley, Zach Thompson and
Drew VerHagen. Maybe some day
the 100mph + kid Jordan Hicks.
(So far he’s a human base on ball vending machine.)
2
GG Candidates?: And how.
Arenado, Goldschmidt, Brendan Donovan and
Tommy Edman
second/utility
plus Tyler O’Neill
in center. *Will
Wilson Contreras
be able to inspire the kind of confidence in the pitching staff that
Yadier Molina could?
2/
MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
Why
did they give up on their best hitter of 2022, Hunter
Renfroe? Because they’re the
Brewers and that’s how they roll. Pitching
is their strength.
2
Hitters?: Yelich
and Rowdy Tellez for
now. Adames helps a
little but none of these guys match what the Cardinals have in
Arenado and
Goldschmidt.
2
Aces?: If Brandon
Woodruff was healthy they’d
have 2 with Corbin Burnes
the Cy Young winner. As it is they have Freddie Peralta
who’s pretty good.
2
Closers?: If only they hadn’t
traded Josh Hader they’d
have a killer bullpen...and if only fastballs were ducks we’d all
hit triples that quack.
Bryse
Wilson and Devin
Williams.
2
Defensive GG Candidates?: None
up the middle. Yelich
and Corbin Burnes
are finalists.
3/
CHICAGO CUBS:
2
Hitters?: The Cubs don’t have
MVP type offensive players. Cody Bellinger
used to be that kind of player 4
seasons ago. Seiya Suzuki
is that kind of player based on his Japanese career, but most players
coming from the Japanese leagues not named Ichiro Suzuki
(no relation I don’t think) need a couple of seasons to get used to
MLB. If you’re a Cubs fan root for Suzuki.
2
Aces?: Justin Steele and Marcus
Stroman
2
Closers?: Michael Fullmer and
Michael Rucker
2
GG types?: Ian Happ in left.
Dansby Swanson at
short.
Tucker
Barnhart won one at catcher.
Also
featuring:
4/
THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES:
You
only hear three things out of the Pirates:
How
bad is Oneil Cruz’s
injury? (Answer: Bad...ankle
injuries tend to linger.)
When
do they trade Bryan Reynolds?
(Answer: Boston can’t
afford Showtime Ohtani so they’ll probably get Reynolds.)
Nice
of them to get Andrew McCutcheon
back for a little love.
And…
5/
THE CINCINNATI REDS:
Future
Aces Nick Lodolo and
Hunter Green.
N.L.
WEST:
1/
L.A. DODGERS:
What?
Them again! I don’t
know...the Dodgers seem like they definitely took a hit in this off
season. They said goodbye to Justin Turner, Tre Turner,
Cody Bellinger and Gavin
Lux’s ACL/LCL. They won’t
get Walker Buehler back
for awhile.
While you may think the
Dodgers are relaxing and taking a season off while they reset the
clock on their salary cap, I see a leopard laying in wait at the
waterhole, ready to rend and tear the wart hogs of MLB.
They
went out and got Miguel Rojas
to play GG caliber shortstop.
Betts,
Trace Thompson and
Taylor bat rightie as
outfielders.
Peralta,
Heyward and Outman bat leftie
as outfielders.
They
can keep Chris Taylor
as
an infield/outfield swingman.
Betts
can play second if they need
him. So can Taylor
and Miguel Vargas.
Muncy
can stay on third most of the time and he’s a gold glover over
there.
J.D.
Martinez will DH and not play
much outfield. He’s happier that way.
The Dodgers are smart...and
they wind up with a veteran team that has fought hard in the Playoffs
and hung together. Twos?
2
Hitters?: Freeman, Betts, Will Smith and
Muncy have all led in one
category or another offensively. The
‘Heads have 7 guys currently carrying an OPS of at least .843 and
4 are over .950.
*CURIOUS
NOTE: the Dodgers only have 3
steals this season. 4 Caught
Stealings. Mookie has
a strained hammy and he’s out for awhile.
I
think they saw that grisly video of Gavin Lux
tearing his knee when he stumbled going into third and decided not to
risk any more leg injuries by going to the stolen base for offense.
That’s an option when you have as much home run power as L.A. does.
2
Aces?: Lefties Kershaw
and Urias.
Rightie Dustin May
looks fully healed and he’s a weapon. They need two other starters
until Buehler
returns.
2
Closers?: Iffy. Phillips
is the closer right now. Somebody is going to move from the bullpen
to the rotation. I don’t think Syndergaard
can hang onto a spot in the rotation so he might trade places with
one of the very capable bullpen arms.
2
GG candidates?: Up
the middle you’ve got Rojas
as a past finalist at short. Betts
and Heyward are GG
worthy. Muncy at
third. Freeman at
first. So the corners are strong.
2/
SAN DIEGO PADRES:
Yeah,
I know...the Padres are the chic
pick this year. All
those sexy superstars making guaranteed money. Plus Juan
Soto. But I think the Padres
are overrated, overheated and overpaid. They pretty much have to win
to justify these contracts they’ve been dishing out. I got excited
like everybody else when their management went Hell’s Bells and
High Water for the ring. If only more teams would do that! I think
they would see their finances improve dramatically and even
everything out. But I’m not sure I like the chemistry in
S.D.
The
Pads climbed Everest
in the League Champ Series when they beat the Dodgers. This after
losing...what was it, 17
games to the Dodgeheads
in the season? Okay, so go team no problem, right? But look at the
mix:
Manny
Machado: HEAD CASE BAT
THROWER
Fernando
Tatis Jr.: HEAD CASE + MULTIPLE INJURIES + DRUG ABUSE+DIRT
BIKE ABUSE.
Juan
Soto: SWEETIE PIE DANCE
INSTRUCTOR AT THE PLATE (who
hates clocks).
Xander
Bogaert: NATURAL TEAM LEADER
BUMPING TATIS OFF HIS POSITION AND LONG TIME BAD
BLOOD RIVAL OF MANNY MACHADO
WHEN MM WAS AN ORIOLE.
Rugi
Odor: MAJOR HEAD CASE AND
DESIGNATED ENFORCER.
CHARGE,
RUGI!!!
Nelson
Cruz: OLD MAN RIVER.
Josh
Hader: HIPPIE SIDE-SLINGER
SOUTHPAW WHO SITS YOUR ASS DOWN
.
Yu
Darvish: MULTI-PITCH STARTER
WHO IS TOO SLOW TO THE PLATE TO BEAT THE PITCH CLOCK OR THROW OUT
RUNNERS
Blake
Snell: IF HE’S THROWING A
NO-HITTER BE SURE TO TAKE HIM OUT BY THE 6TH INNING.
Joe
Musgrove: CHECK HIS FINGERS ONE
MORE TIME FOR STICKY SUBSTANCES.
2
Hitters?: If Soto and Machado
can break out of their slumps.
Right now it’s Bogaerts carrying
the team.
2
Aces?: Seth Lugo, Yu Darvish
and Snell. Musgrove
will be back soon.
2
Closers?: Hader is nasty. He’s
got Steve Wilson to
help him.
2
GG people?: Ha-Seong Kim
playing second now. Bogaerts
is a finalist at short. Machado
at third. Trent Grisham
in center. Soto in
right. Cronenworth a
finalist at second but is playing first.
Also
running in the West:
3/
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
2
Hitters?: Christian Walker and
Ketel Marte have looked pretty
dangerous at various times but can they both get hot at one time?
2
Aces?: Zac Gallen for sure.
Merrill Kelly for
maybe. Madison
Bumgarner...nevermore.
(Another
Edgar Poe reference?)
2
Closers?: Nope. Andrew
Chafin occasionally looks good
enough.
2
GG types ?: They had a GG
finalist at all three outfield positions when they had Varsho
(right and utility… signed by Toronto)), Alek Thomas
(left) and David Peralta
(traded to Tampa Bay mid-season) but
let Varsho and Peralta leave. Christian Walker
is a candidate at first.
4/
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS:
One
of the top five richest clubs but they can’t catch a break. Is it
the taxes in California or the cost of housing or what? They struck
out on Judge, Correa
and Rodon. In 2022,
Joc Pederson was
the only Giant regular over .800 in OPS. Logan Webb
is a Cy Young candidate.
They have a lot of leftie
hitters and they should be helped by the shift rule, but they started
really slow again this year.
5/
COLORADO ROCKIES:
The
Rockies hitters are never as good as they look at Coors Field and the
pitchers are never as bad. But the whole Rockies team
looks really bad this year. They
lost 94 games last year. This year they will set a new record
probably. It’s a shame.
FINAL
PREDICTIONS:
A.L. DIVISION WINNERS:
New York, Cleveland, Houston
A.L. WILD CARDS:
Toronto, Tampa Bay, Seattle
A.L. WORLD SERIES
REPRESENTATIVE: Houston
N.L.
DIVISION WINNERS: Atlanta, St.
Louis, Los Angeles
N.L. WILD CARDS:
Philadelphia, San Diego, New York
N.L. WORLD SERIES
REPRESENTATIVE: Atlanta
WORLD
SERIES WINNER: HOUSTON
BYE NOW!
