Monday, April 18, 2016

Marco's Baseball blog-O-Roonie: 2016 predictions NL WEST and summary

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS NL WEST

The sudden appearance of Jeremy Hazelbaker...currently batting .483 for the Cardinals...flashed me back to another famous “phenom”...Bob “Hurricane” Hazle who came up to the Milwaukee Braves in July of 1957 and batted .403 in 150+ at bats with a slugging % of .649. He batted .553 in his first dozen games and was a big reason the Braves held back the Cardinals and won the pennant.

For one summer Braves thought they'd died and gone to heaven thinking about Hurricane Bob teaming up with Aaron and Eddie Matthews to give them a triple threat middle of the order. Bob didn't do so well in the series with the Yankees, but he helped the Braves win the 7th game with two hits. But then...

In 1958 NL pitchers discovered he couldn't hit the curve and he batted .179 with a slugging average also .179 (hard to do!). The Braves traded him to Detroit and he was out of baseball the next year.

Maybe Hazelbaker will last longer. He's starting late, though...28 years old. By the way, he went to that perennial powerhouse baseball college Ball State.

Let's predict the NL West...if I wait any longer my predictions will be much better because the season will be over!

Can I skip the ratings this time? Just remember 2 ½ is average, 5 is among the best of all time and 0 is...well...zero. I haven't rated anybody zero yet but Cincinnati got one star for their pitching rotation until they get Homer Bailey back.

1st place...Los Angeles:

I've been badmouthing LA for so long that you probably can't believe I'm picking them this year ...of all years...when they lost Greinke and the Giants and Diamondhumps are so much better. Well I am a perverse SOB when it comes to my predictions and I might be way off but I got a feeling...and the feeling is named Dave Roberts.

New Manager Dave Roberts of the Dodgers is one of those guys that everybody likes to be around. He's been a loved and valued bench player for most of his career. Now he's a manager and he's just the right fit for the Dodgers.
The Bluebloods have had a lot of stars, but also a lot of confusion and pressure for years. They have been expected to win because they are the most expensive team money can buy and they have the best pitcher in Kershaw. They also have a lot of older players who are fighting to stay in the lineup against some up and coming youngsters. I think they've been playing tight for three years.

Roberts is not a hardcore guy like Mattingly. He's loose and funny and friendly and kind of like laughing gas for a bunch of uptight millionaires like the Dodgers. I think they'll respond. I think it's also a blessing that most pundits are not picking them to win the West. Stuff like that motivates a defending champ.

The other reason I'm picking the Dodgers is that I think the Giants aren't going to be as good as people think...specifically their pitching. Their closer, Romo, already went down with arm trouble (too-many-slider-itis) Peavey and Cain are 5 innings 5 runs given up types now. That will overtax the bullpen. Samardzija is still a project...with all that great stuff he still has always underachieved. Jumpin' Johnny Cueto is now Jekyll and Hyde. On any given day he might be great and the next time out he loses it totally.

And Bumgarner...I hate to say this cause I love the guy...but he looks like his arm is feeling the innings he's put on it the last few years.

Let's face it, the Giants have abused his arm. They've left him in games too long because he's such a gamer and they trust his heart. I like his heart too, but I watched him give up 7 runs to the Dodgers the other night and his cross-body pitches to right handed hitters didn't have that snap and late breaking movement they used to. He hung 3 belt high sliders to that Enrique Hernandez kid, who got two homers and a double easily.

Anyway, the Giants have had two tremendous, full Ace pitchers in the last few years...Lincecum and Cain...suddenly go south and not recover. Is Bumgarner going to suddenly lose it too? I sure hope not...he's my favorite pitcher since Pedro.

Back to the Dodgers:

Lineup: 3½*...If Puig comes back from voodooville the middle of the order is strong with Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager and Justin Turner. Howie Kendrick is back at second. All their outfielders are hurt or head cases so that can hurt them.

The big mystery is Joc Pederson. He batted .178 the second half with only 6 homers. In the first half he hit some of the longest homers in baseball, and I think he fell in love with himself. (He also got on base with walks.)

Then he made the All Star home run derby and he screwed up his swing uppercutting and trying to pull...he spent the rest of the season platooning and changing his batting stance over and over.

Now he's good and bewildered. He looks like he just can't believe that the pitchers are not going to throw that fat down and in pitch to him so he can hit it to Ventura. The other night I watched him try to pull a weak slider off the outside corner and down. He had a tremendous uppercut and missed by a foot....and posed! He stood there as if saying to the fans...wouldn't that have been beautiful if I'd hit it? Then he struck out when they jammed him in and he half committed to a swing and got rung up. He looked clueless.

Joc should study tapes of Hosmer from KC. That guy takes the outside pitch the other way and doesn't try to hit everything into the seats. He helps his team that way. Peterson should really study Hosmer's hands...they have a World Series ring on them, Joc!

Defense: 4*...the infield is much better with Kendrick back. Puig and Peterson can both go get it.

Rotation: 4*...I like the kid Maeda. He's going to be pretty good for them I think. Along with Ryu and Kazmir...they are much better than the Giants or Diamondbacks 1 through 5 in my opinion.

Bullpen: 2½*...they really haven't gone out and gotten anybody to really help this bunch and it may cost them. After they lost Aroldis Chapman, they seemed to lose focus on this weak spot. Maybe they think some of their young pitching star prospects can come up later in the season and upgrade the pen. Right now it's not much until you get to Jansen.

Leadership: 4*...I think Dave Roberts is worth a full star to them, at least. Even though the front office has made some unfathomable trades, they are obviously committed to building the team with their own prospects. That means they're looking at creating a long term dynasty instead of going all out to win now. But if the Dodgers are close late, surely they'll get some help? We'll see.

TOTAL: EIGHTEEN STARS...FIRST PLACE

Tied for 1st place...San Francisco:

Lineup: 3*...they'd be higher if they didn't have such a terrible injury history. Every year they lose key players to serious injury and have to muddle through. They have to keep Posey and Pence healthy or the middle of the order is pathetic. Why can't they find a hitting left fielder?

Defense: 3*...again, the starters are pretty good, but the Giants have to play so many fill-ins when the regs go down that you can't give them a tremendously high score.

Rotation: 3½*...and that's giving them the benefit of the doubt. People are rating them on name only...these pitchers are not what they were and every one of them except Bumgarner and Samardzija has had serious arm troubles in the recent past. See above.

Bullpen: 3½*...the man they trust the most...Romo...might be done for the year. Bochy is a genius at mixing and matching in the pen, but even he has to have raw materials. Also, like I said before...Peavy and Cain aren't good for a lot of innings. The pen is always overworked anyway and this year might be the breaking point.

Leadership: 5*...no doubt about it. This is a helluva focused bunch of winners. It starts with Bochy and with a front office that is savvy and doesn't meddle. They will get help when it's needed. Posey, Pence, Panik, Pagan and Brandon Crawford...gamers all. They are a lot like Kansas City.

TOTAL: EIGHTEEN STARS...TIED FOR FIRST PLACE

3rd place...Arizona:

Lineup: 3*...oh what a cruel blow! The Humps had one of the most productive offenses last year and that's why they went out and got those two big arm starting pitchers (Greinke and Miller)

Then A.J.Pollock broke his elbow. He might get back this year or he might not...but he was the other big gun they needed in the order to make teams pitch to Goldschmidt. (They aren't going to be afraid of Yasmany Tomas or Socrates Brito!) They lose a full star.

Defense: 2½*...the loss of center fielder Pollock hurts them here too. Tomas is a black hole in right.

Rotation: 3½*...Greinke and Miller should be good but they must adjust to a hitter's park and big expectations. But how many stars do you think Rubby de la Rosa and Robby Ray are worth? Patrick Corbin might be a good number three. If he is it's worth a half star. But remember...he just had Tommy John. It's a shame that Archie Bradley got hurt...that guy could pitch.

Bullpen: 2*...it has become apparent in this new age of baseball with the plague of multiple Tommy John surgeries and pitch counts for high-priced star pitchers that a good bullpen is essential for any team pretending to be a contender. Arizona does not have a good bullpen. Therefore I don't believe they can win.

Leadership: 3½*...you develop good leadership by experiencing winning. The Humps haven't learned how to really win yet. Maybe Greinke can teach them how. And Goldschmidt is one of the most admirable superstars in the game today.

Tony La Russa is an interesting judge of baseball talent. But he got used to working with a great organization in St. Louis. The Cardinals expected to be good every year. These Diamondbacks were forced to go for it in the next two years because after that they start losing their stars to free agency. They must win now and that forced them to give up three great players for Shelby Miller and a ton of money for Greinke.

After losing Pollock I think they are out of luck. BAD JUJU.

TOTAL: FOURTEEN AND ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE

4th place...Colorado:

Lineup: 4*...I'm probably being generous. But they have Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon (45 steals). The new kid Drew Storey is making them forget Tulo (at least in April!) If Jose Reyes can play ball instead of beating on his woman that offense could be scary.

Defense: 3½*...whoopie! Another thing the Rockheads are kinda good at!

Rotation: 1½*...Yikes! You knew it was coming but I didn't realize how pitiful their rotation was until I really looked. The pitching staff as a whole was bottom 5 in ERA, Wins, Saves and Opponent's Batting Average last year. Same old story at Coors Stadium.

Bullpen: 1½*...more of the same. World Class Bad.

Leadership: 1½*...they have tried everything from banning any use of the curveball for all of their minor league pitchers to taking out any pitcher after 80 pitches no matter what the circumstance. Nothing works. They need a pitching coach who can train a bunch of sinker ball pitchers to induce groundballs..or something!

So the front office has to get a failing score. They also insulted Tulo by not telling him he had been traded until he heard it on Twitter or something. He had specifically asked them to tell him first. Why treat your all time best player like that? Unless you're a total dufus. BAD JUJU!

Their good players Arenado and some of the other guys mentioned above are the only reason they have any stars at all in this category. Denver is a nice town...they deserve better. Bad JUJU!

TOTAL: TWELVE STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5th place...San Diego:

The most zombie of all the zombie teams. Nobody knows what San Diego is doing. Last year they tried to get fans in the stadium by signing free agents and trading for Kemp, Will Myers, Justin Upton and James Shields. They knew they couldn't keep all of those guys for more than a year but they needed to boost attendance. The team collapsed and they started trading guys again...but not all of them...are they trying to split hairs? In this day and age you can't get caught in the middle. You have to go for it or rebuild.

One thing is for sure...this team sucks. What is it with San Diego? It's a big city with a great climate...and they can't keep their ball teams. The Chargers are trying to move to L.A. And the Padres might as well move too.
Lineup: 2*...they finished bottom five in most offensive categories last year and losing Upton hasn't made them any better. Worst batting average in majors at .243.

Defense: 2*...they think they don't need a shortstop. Believe me, they need a shortstop. Kemp isn't a good outfielder anymore. Myers isn't good at first base.

Rotation: 2*...they will probably start selling off their veteran pitchers and loading up on recruits...at least they will if they're smart. They can get something for Shields and Tyler Ross especially.

Bullpen: 1*...they traded Kimbrel to the Bosox for good prospects. I guess they realize that you don't need a closer when you're always behind.

Leadership: 1*...when you play for San Diego these days...you know you've hit bottom.

TOTAL: 8 STARS...FIFTH PLACE

And now....in summary...here are my predictions all in one spot so you can hold them against me more easily at the end of the season.

AL EAST: Toronto should win by 6 or 7 games with the other teams bunched up behind pretty evenly.

TORONTO...19 *
NEW YORK...18*
BOSTON...16½*
BALTIMORE...15½*
TAMPA...13½*

AL CENTRAL: a runaway for KC...still the best team in baseball.

KANSAS CITY...21*
CLEVELAND...16½*
MINNESOTA...16½*
DETROIT...15½*
CHICAGO...10½*

AL WEST: Houston and Texas battle it out. Almost too close to call. L.A. Angels collapse to last.

HOUSTON...18½*
TEXAS...17½*
SEATTLE...13½*
OAKLAND...12½*
LOS ANGELES ANGELS...12*

WILD CARDS: TEXAS and NEW YORK ...winner TEXAS

KC BEATS TEXAS, TORONTO BEATS HOUSTON
KC BEATS TORONTO IN 7.

NL EAST: Strictly a two team race but New York should pull away at the end. Who can beat Atlanta and Philly the most times?

NEW YORK...17*
WASHINGTON...14½*
MIAMI...13½*
PHILADELPHIA...11½*
ATLANTA...9*

NL CENTRAL: 3 way race with very little space between. Will be decided by injuries and how each team does against the weak sisters Milwaukee and Cincinnati.

PITTSBURGH...20*
CHICAGO...18*
ST. LOUIS...17½*
CINCINNATI...11½*
MILWAUKEE...10*
NL WEST: I predict San Francisco and Los Angeles will tie and have to play a one game playoff to decide the division winner. The loser may not be the wild card because of the strong Central. Should be an epic game!

LOS ANGELES DODGERS...18*
SAN FRANCISCO...18*
ARIZONA...14½*
COLORADO...12*
SAN DIEGO...8*

WILD CARDS: CHICAGO and ST. LOUIS ...winner CHICAGO
DODGERS BEAT GIANTS IN ONE GAME PLAYOFF FOR WEST TITLE.
CHICAGO BEATS NEW YORK
PITTSBURGH BEATS LOS ANGELES
PITTSBURGH BEATS CHICAGO IN 6

WORLD SERIES:

KANSAS CITY BEATS PITTSBURGH IN 6 GAMES.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Predictions NL Central

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS NL CENTRAL

Just pretend for a moment that it's the last day of the season and the NL Central standings have St. Louis and Chicago tied for first place with one game to go. The Pirates are a couple back but are guaranteed the second wild card spot while the Cards and Cubs are assured of either winning the division and getting the by week or at least getting the first wild card.

Let's say in our imaginary universe that the Cards are playing a day game against Cincinnati on the last day of the season while the Cubs are playing the Pirates in a night game. The Cubs start John Lackey and are saving Jake Arrieta in case they need him to win the Wild Card play-in game against Pittsburgh or the tie breaker with St. Louis.

Let's say the Cards win that day game before the Pirates-Cubs game starts. So now if the Cubs win this game they will tie with the Cards and have to play a tie-breaker with them to decide who wins the division.

The Pirates are getting the second wild card anyway so they have nothing to lose if they dump this game with the Cubs and force them to pitch Arrieta to win the tie-breaker against the Cards. Then at least if they play the Cubs they won't have to face Arrieta. And the Cards will have probably used up their best available starter too.

If the Pirates beat the Cubs they are rewarded by having to face Arrieta in a one game takes all scenario. So by any measure, the Pirates are better off losing that game. So in my imaginary and sordidly corrupt universe the Pirates start some rookie from Dirt City, Utah and load up the lineup with prospects while they rest their starters.
The Cubs have something to play for and whack the Buccos 14 to 0 and then have to go play the Cards for first place. Advantage Pirates who get a day of rest and then face a depleted opponent in the Wild Card game.

Preposterous you say? Well someday this is going to happen with the Wild Card rule they now have in effect. Just like the San Antonio Spurs like to tank meaningless games in the NBA to rest their stars, baseball is wide open to a tank job that will benefit the losing club. Except it will decide the playoffs!

I don't know if baseball has ever had a situation where it clearly benefited one team to lose a game. They could have it in my wicked scenario and you will rue the day! Mark my Words!

You're probably tired of seeing it but here, once again, is my ratings system:


5*stars= among the best of all time.
4*stars=really good
3*stars=a little above average
2 ½*stars=average
1*star=stinko
0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.


NL CENTRAL:
1st place...Pittsburgh:
Egads, you croak! (I hear you croaking at me...don't deny it) Perella has flipped out and is picking against the adorable little predestined-for-greatness Cubbies! And he's not even sticking with the ever-excellent Cardinals! He's wishful-thinking the outmanned Pirates into a title! Well...yep..that's what I'm doing.
It's not wishful thinking 'cause while I'm appreciative of the Pirates I have badmouthed them for years because they can't keep enough stars to ever break through and win something big. I pick the Cards to win every year because they do. And I readily admit that the Cubs are the best team on paper in the National League this year. I think everybody is justified in picking them to win this year. I just don't think they will. Pro and Con:
The Cubs went out and got exactly the right players to help their young team...Heyward and Zobrist are seasoned pros who still have a lot left. Zobrist was on the World Series Champs last year and knows what it feels like. Used to play for Joe Maddon at Tampa. He's versatile and a good clubhouse guy. So is Heyward who is also the best defensive outfielder they could have gotten. (Their outfield needed defensive help if they planned on playing Schwarber and Soler a lot.)
They also got John Lackey to be their number 3 starter. Lackey wound up the Cardinals top pitcher last year. He's also John Lester's best friend. So that's three old pros to help settle down the exciting youth of America team the Cubs have brilliantly developed. All praise to Theo Epstein.
What's even more devious is that in getting Heyward and Lackey, the Cubs robbed their division rivals, the Cards, of two great, hard to replace players. (They overpaid for Heyward, but so what...they have the money and are saving a bundle with all those cheap rookies.) Got to give the Cubs an A for the off season.
However, Schwarber just went down for the season with a knee. (Sad!) That's a big loss, offensively, even though they have depth.
And I think it's a little premature to assume that all these young players will smoothly improve without a hiccup.
This team...especially Bryant and Soler... strikes out way too much. Chicago also finished 29th in batting, 19th in total bases and slugging. 29th in runners left on base. Those are not very impressive stats for a team that's supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. Of course, that's against the whole of major league baseball, AL included, but still...they play in Wrigley Field! You're supposed to run up the score! I think the league may have gotten a good read on how to get these free-swinging youngsters out. The Mets sure did.
The Cubs are not a good defensive club either, although Heyward helps a lot in the outfield...but maybe not as much in center if they move him out of his happy home in right.
Also, the bullpen is inferior to both the Cards and the Pirates...and bullpens are essential in modern baseball.
So I see the Cubs still winning well over 90 games...they still have Rizzo, Addison Russell (an almost unnoticed future star at 22) and Arrieta as a stopper. And they have a very good leader in manager Joe Maddon.
I think the Cubs are a year away.
The Cards are still stacked with great young arms and they get Wainwright back. But they didn't quite get anybody to replace Heyward and Lackey was their only pitcher who didn't get hurt all the time. They seem to lack offense now that Holliday is fading. Piscotti and Grichuk are good looking kids but they aren't Pujols in the middle of the order.
Yadier Molina is still the best defensive catcher in the business but they had to wire his thumb together and how much pounding can that thing take day after day on his glove hand? Sure can't help his hitting any, either.
So, I see the Cardinals as weaker. Don't get me wrong...they'll still be plenty good. And they'll probably go out and get some help. But they are not a sure thing this year.
I just think the Pirates are ripe. They're sick of getting beat in the Wild Card game and they are motivated to win now before all their stars turn into free agents.
Here's how I rate them:
Lineup: 4*...I think Starling Marte is a star about to break out. Polanco too. I like Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison at short and second. Third sacker Kang finished second in Rookie of the Year votes even though he only played in 126 games before he broke his leg. Kid can hit and get on base. He'll be back early in the season. I also like batting McCutcheon second. He'll get more at bats and more good pitches to hit. And he can use his speed to best effect early in the order.
Defense: 2½*...average at best but Cervelli was a huge surprise at catcher. He was great with the pitchers and hit some too. (.295) Every good club starts with an ace at catcher.
Rotation: 4*...I think Gerrit Cole is ready for a dominating year. Because of the Pirates pitching philosophy (have a shutdown bullpen ...get a result in 3 pitches...use cutters to get ground balls), Cole won 19 games in only 208 innings pitched. (Arrieta had over 250 if you count the post season) He might not even be their best pitcher. Liriano won game after big game for the Bucs. They have three lefties in the rotation and youngster Tyler Glasnow averaged 11.8 K's per nine in the minors. (ok...full disclosure...he's very wild on occasion.)
Bullpen: 4½*...best in the league. Balanced and talented. Outside of Melancon they don't have household names but they get it done.
The thing with Pirates pitching is that they have a genius pitching coach named Ray Searage who rehabs all these old cast-off guys like Liriano and A.J.Burnett and squeezes 3 more years of wins out of them. This year his projects are starter Jon Niese and reliever Neftali Feliz (who the Rangers ruined by trying to turn him into a starter) and I bet those guys give a lot of value to the Bucs this year.
Leadership: 5*...they've always had a great team spirit, led by the ebullient 'Cutch and the Grizzled One...manager Clint Hurdle. I already mentioned Searage and the pitching staff worships at his altar. The front office can't afford free agents but they trust the players they get. I mentioned the intangibles of really wanting to win it while this team is together. Most of all: GOOD JUJU!
TOTAL: TWENTY STARS...FIRST PLACE
2nd place...Chicago:
Lineup: 3½*...cause they strike out so much. They lose another half point for losing Schwarber...that kid can rake.
Defense: 2½*...a couple of black holes in the defense. Heyward and Russell (at short) are standouts.
Rotation: 4½*... they have the top pitcher in baseball or close to it (you can make an argument for Kershaw, Greinke, Bumgarner and maybe Scherzer too). Lester and Lackey are strong at 2 and 3 and Hendricks and Hammel aren't bad.
Bullpen: 3*...kind of weak if you plan on winning it all. Warren was a good pickup from the Yankees for Castro. Rondon is the closer and he doesn't excite. But this team finished fourth in bullpen ERA last year so they aren't terrible.
Leadership: 4½*...still young but Rizzo is a leader. So is Zobrist and Maddon keeps them loose. And how much confidence does a guy like Arrieta give them when he's out there? One of the top front offices in the game. Also GOOD JUJU.
TOTAL: EIGHTEEN STARS...SECOND PLACE
3rd place...St. Louis:
Lineup: 3*...several good hitters in the lineup, but they are all about number six types...nothing formidable in the middle of the order. No Vuottos, McCutcheons or Rizzos.
Defense: 3½*...the Cards are always pretty good in the field, but they aren't exceptional except for Molina. He's worth about a whole star by himself.
Rotation: 3½*...Lance Lynn was their number 2. He went down the Tommy John Trail. They traded Shelby Miller to Atlanta in the Heyward deal (Miller subsequently went to Arizona for three great prospects) and Miller was a good young pitcher. Then they lost Lackey. Now they're short. They have to depend on the oft injured and aging Wainwright to be their Number 1. He's not anymore.
Wacha is a power arm who gets hurt regularly. Carlos Martinez is still trying to live up to the “Little Pedro” sobriquet. Jaime Garcia and Tyler Lyons fill out the rotation. Wacha, Martinez and Garcia have all had shoulder issues.
Yadier makes this rotation a whole ERA run better...but none of these guys is a safe bet to make it through the season in one piece. I predict at least three of them will go down and the Cards will be filling holes all year. The Cards now have a tradition of losing pitchers to arm troubles. Somebody needs to change something.
BAD JUJU!
Bullpen: 3½*...Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness, Broxton...the Cards should be ok in this department.
Leadership: 4*...The Cardinals expect to be good. They have one of the very best orgs in baseball and they live up to it most years. But this year I see adversity stalking them. The Cubs beat them badly in the off season and the Pirates are still hanging around. They don't have an offensive superstar...just some solid blue collar hitters. Their pitching is down from recent seasons.
They still might sneak in to the playoffs just on Molina and moxie, but look for them to go get help for that to transpire.
TOTAL: SEVENTEEN and ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE
4th place...Cincinnati:
Lineup: 2*...they still have Vuotto and Brandon Phillips is defying time. Jay Bruce hit 26 dingers on a .226 average. Billy Hamilton batted .226 as well but stole 57 bases. They traded Todd Frazier. They don't score much. Vuotto only got 80 ribbies on a .314 average with 29 homers batting third. The Reds finished 26th in runs scored playing in a hitter's park.
Don't worry about the Reds...they're not trying to hurt you!
Defense: 2½*...just average almost everywhere and catcher Devin Mesoraco and shortstop Zach Cozart are coming off serious injuries.
Rotation: 1*...what did you expect when you traded Cueto and Leake and lost Homer Bailey to surgery? Do you really think those rookie pitchers are going to light up the league? If Homer comes back mid season they might get another half star out of this group.
Bullpen: 2*...hope you got something good for Aroldis Chapman. (They really didn't)
Leadership: 4*...no matter how suckie this team gets...they always have a competitive spirit. They are the Reds, by God and they will try to beat you. Vuotto, Phillips and Bruce came to play and play they will. If manager Bryan Price can get his pitching staff on the right track he may last til the All Star break. The Reds mistimed their rebuild but they'll be back.
TOTAL: ELEVEN AND ONE HALF STARS...FOURTH PLACE
5th place...Milwaukee:
Another rebuild underway. It should be depressing in Wisconsin for awhile. They have talented youngsters coming up though.
Lineup: 1½*...they traded Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. They will try to trade Jonathon Lucroy (he set an all time record for catchers with 53 doubles in 2014). They can't trade Ryan Braun 'cause he makes too much money. They finished in the bottom ten in baseball in almost every offensive category last year. It will be worse this year.
Defense: 1*...Oh God does it suck. When they trade Lucroy knock another half star off.
Rotation: 1½*...if you listen carefully you can hear the dead arms rotting. Matt Garza? Taylor Jungmann? Willy Peralta?
Bullpen: 3*...the strength of the team! 3.40 ERA ranked fifth in the NL. They traded closer KRod however.
Leadership: 3*...Craig Counsell might get them to play scrappy ball and they could annoy people to death. But when your spiritual leader is Ryan Braun?
TOTAL: TEN STARS...FIFTH PLACE
Thus ends the saga of the NL Central! Join us next time while we desecrate the NL West.
And of course, the final predictions (I'm already in trouble with my Minnesota and Baltimore rankings!)
Hasta la Vista!


Saturday, April 9, 2016

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Predictions NL EAST

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: PREDICTIONS 2016
NL EAST

THE RATINGS:
5*stars= among the best of all time.
4*stars=really good
3*stars=a little above average
2 ½*stars=average
1*star=stinko
0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.


The National League is clearly delineated between the haves and the have nots. Everybody knows who has a chance and who doesn't have a prayer. The Zombie teams are Philly, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Colorado and San Diego.
It's not that the Zombies don't have good players...they all have two or three good players. But they are either in the middle of a rebuild (Philly, Atlanta, Cincy) or are just hopelessly confused (Milwaukee, Colorado, San Diego)
One way or another...unless there is some kind of fracking earthquake under some better team's stadium...the Zombies are already Walking Dead.
Two major injuries already to contending clubs: Pollock goes down with an elbow in Arizona and Schwarber runs into Fowler and tears up his knee real good in Chicago. Chicago has depth to survive but Arizona doesn't...
The NL East:
1st place...New York:
Lineup: 3*...because they retained Cespedes to bat in the middle. Conforto is a threat and Neil Walker comes over from Pittsburgh.
Defense: 2½*...the outfield sucks. How the heck did Cespedes win a gold glove? He botches every other play. His incredible arm gets him out of trouble sometimes, but he's not great in center and indifferent in left. Conforto is minimal. Granderson is their best outfielder but he's old. Lagares is pretty good but he can't hit enough to play.
Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera are an upgrade at second and short but Wright's bad neck affects his play at third.
Rotation: 5*...I think the Mets starting rotation may wind up being the second best of all time. Here's a look at some of the best through baseball history:
Philadelphia Athletics of the early 1900's: Rube Waddell, Eddie Plank and Chief Bender...3 Hall of Famers.
Chicago Cubs of early 1900's: led by Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown, this staff also included three other very good to great pitchers...Orvie Overall, Ed Reulbach and Jack Pfeister.
Cleveland Indians of the early 1950's: Bob Lemon, Early Wynn, Bob Feller (HOF) and Mike Garcia.
Baltimore Orioles of late 60's early 70's: Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar, Dave McNally and in 1971 Pat Dobson joined them to give them four 20 game winners on the team.
Atlanta Braves of the 90's: Greg Maddox, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz gave them three Hall of Famers. They won 14 division titles in a row.
I'd put the Mets right behind the Braves if they stay healthy and do it for a few years. Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, helped by Matz, Wheeler and Bartolo Colon. Impressive!
Bullpen: 3½*...Familia is a great closer but they're a little light on set-up men. It makes them keep their young starters in the game too long and makes it more likely they'll hurt their arms.
Leadership: 3*...with that great pitching staff, why didn't the front office go out and score more help in the bullpen and in the lineup to push them over the top? Yeah, they made the series but they got throttled by the Royals and they don't have enough offense with Wright's neck problems. They also lose points for having a manager who let the fans and Brian Harvey talk him into leaving the tiring starter in to get beat in that key home game in the series.
TOTAL: SEVENTEEN STARS...FIRST PLACE
2nd place...Washington:
Lineup: 3*...it's really just Bryce Harper carrying the offense. He can be pitched around, and last year was his first year without injury. Werth shouldn't be batting cleanup. Zimmerman was hot in the Spring but he has a bad history of getting hurt. So does Rendon. They don't have a leadoff man to replace Denard Span.
Defense: 3*...a little above average but age keeps this score low.
Rotation: 4*...if Strasburg lives up to his potential they could threaten.
Bullpen: 3*...they chose bad tooth Papelbon over Drew Storen when they needed both of them.
Leadership: 1½*...a certified head case team. A major underachieving disappointment for three years in a row. They have a lot to prove. Maybe Dusty Baker can get them to pull together but they are suspect until proven otherwise.
TOTAL: FOURTEEN AND ONE HALF STARS...SECOND PLACE
3rd place...Miami
They might be able to have a winning season if Stanton can get through one year without a major injury. Dee Gordon and Jose Fernandez along with Giancarlo give them three of the top stars in baseball and they still don't have a clue.
Lineup: 3*...first four will scare you but the rest will lull you into a stupor of boredom.
Defense: 3½*...great up the middle.
Rotation: 2*...Jose can play but the rest...no way!
Bullpen: 3*...shows some promise at least.
Leadership: 2*...Mattingly was probably a good hire if he can stand to lose. But adding Barry Bonds as hitting coach? That's just crazy. Stanton is a stand-up star. FRONT OFFICE ERRATIC!
TOTAL: THIRTEEN AND ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE.
4th place...Philadelphia:
Lineup: 2*...Franco and Herrera (centerfield)...not much else.
Defense: 2*...Rupp takes over from Ruiz at Catcher...changing of the guard.
Rotation: 3*...Hellickson and some young arms.
Bullpen: 2*...needs work.
Leadership: 2½*...the old guys are gone. It's a new mix and they'll have to develop a new core of leadership.
TOTAL: ELEVEN AND ONE HALF STARS...FOURTH PLACE
5th place...Atlanta
Massive rebuild but lots of young stars coming two years down the road.
Lineup: 2*...very weak. Bottom of baseball across the board. Only Freeman is left from their team of two years ago.
Defense: 2½*...so very average.
Rotation: 1½*...Teheran could be good or he could be bad...who knows? Really weak.
Bullpen: 2*...are you getting the picture? This team sucks!
Leadership: 1*...Fredi Gonzalez is a place holder manager at this point. Hard to lead when you know you're finishing last.
TOTAL: NINE STARS...FIFTH PLACE


Stand by for the ever-interesting NL Central!

Sunday, April 3, 2016

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 3

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 3

AL WEST

Correction from last blog...Adam Eaton, the center fielder of the White Sox...does not bat cleanup...I meant to say he's good at leadoff. I knew that...just a minor brain lock.

Once more, here is my ratings system:

5*stars= among the best of all time.
4*stars=really good
3*stars=a little above average
2 ½*stars=average
1*star=stinko
0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.
I'm rating teams in 5 categories: offensive lineup, defense, rotation, bullpen and leadership.
(Another note on ratings: A team getting 12½ stars would seem to be an “average” team since that's the way the numbers look. But remember, the ratings are based on historical norms, not just in comparison to other teams in any one season.
The way baseball looks these days, I would say a team needs at least 14½ stars to compete for a playoff spot, and that would be in a weaker division. Any thing over 18 would be a very strong contender for a playoff spot.)
AL WEST:
1st place...HOUSTON
This is very close between Houston and Texas, with Seattle maybe sneaking in there if they can get it together.
Lineup: 3½*...starts out good with Altuve, Correa and Springer, but their cleanup guys are Carlos Gomez and Colby Rasmus. Evan Gattis is hurt and Singleton didn't make it at first so they have Valbuena and somebody else to try. Everybody strikes out too much. They did have 11 players in double figure for homers.
Defense: 3½*...Excellent in center, right and around the keystone.
Rotation: 3½*...overrated. Keuchel is not going to go undefeated at home this year. That was freakish. McHugh is a good 3 but McCullers is hurt at number 2. Fiers threw a no-hitter and had ERA of 2.67 but Feldman is a journeymen.
Bullpen: 4*...good last year but now better with Giles moving into the closer role and pushing everybody down a notch.
Leadership: 4*...seem to have a plan. Great spirit...inspirational leader in Altuve...the new golden boy in Correa. They got a taste last year and should be even hungrier.
TOTAL: 18½ STARS...FIRST PLACE
2nd place...TEXAS
They came back to nip Houston at the wire in the regular season, then cratered in a nightmare inning in the notorious Bautista bat-flip game to lose in the first round to Toronto. (BAD JUJU watch for psych damage)
Lineup: 4*...they got some boppers all right. They're getting old though, and have a history of catastrophic injury. They added Ian Desmond, who is tearing up the Spring, to play left. He'll probably be a super sub all around the diamond. (The guy has to have maximum motivation after turning down $100 million from Washington to play short and then another $16 mil for one season only to not be offered anything but left field at Texas for $8 million on a one year contract.)
Choo and Fielder came back strong. Beltre has healed up. Moreland had his best year. Josh Hamilton is still hurt and probably a non-factor but Rougned Odor and Delino DeShields were great young players and Jurickson Profar is back after two years of shoulder miseries. I doubt if he can take over from Andrus at short (if only!) but he can hit and fill in.
Defense: 3*...gold glove at third with Beltre and a great arm in right with Choo but DeShields is a terrible center fielder.(The Rangers sometimes pulled him for another defender in late innings! Your center fielder?) Nobody else stands out.
Rotation: 3*...the hope was that Darvish would be ready to come back and team with Cole Hamels for a powerful double punch at the top, but he's not ready. If Darvish comes back healthy before June I'll bump this up a point.
Bullpen: 3½*...improved by the end of last season. Tolleson saved 35 games.
Leadership: 4*...they came back from one of the worst injury years any team has ever experienced in 2014 and became a winner again. Beltre is their Daddy and Fielder their Teddy Bear.
Odor is a very intense player and hit the second most homers ever by a player under 22. (16, and Mazeroski is first with 19) Hamels fulfilled expectations as a staff leader. The front office came through big time.
The Rangers seem like a loose team finally.
TOTAL: 17½ STARS...SECOND PLACE***
(***NOTE: the rumor is that Texas might a have deal in place for catcher Lucroy from the Brewers. Lucroy is one of the best and a real pro catcher can make a huge difference. If he comes over it raises their offense, defense and leadership by ½ point each, making the Rangers the new favorite to finish first in the AL West.)
3rd Place...SEATTLE
The whole of 2015 was a toothache for the Mariners. The pitching was a disaster...they used 28 guys. Cano underachieved with stomach problems.
Lineup: 3½*...Cano, Cruz and Seager in the middle scare you but they got nothing from most of the rest. Marte might be good and I guess Lind can hit another 20 dingers.
Defense: 3*...an indifferent defensive team but Leonys Martin should help in center.
Rotation: 3*...Felix Hernandez...The King... is finally looking at the start of the downslope of his admirable career. Can Seattle rally and give him a taste of playoff baseball before the end?
They seem to think Wade Miley can pitch in their ballpark but they had to give up too much to the Red Sox to get him (100mph reliever Carson Smith and change) Walker, Karns and Paxton...one of these guys has to get a lot better for Seattle to win anything.)
Bullpen: 2½*...Benoit is ok but I am underwhelmed.
Leadership: 1½*...Cano has to pick it up to keep the front office from looking like suckers for what they agreed to pay him to bring him to their Death Valley ballpark. He is not a leader. A leader doesn't jog out every ground ball.
They travel more than any team in the big leagues because Seattle is so damn far away from everywhere else in baseball. Tires the players out with jet lag.
Yet another new manager in Scott Servais.
TOTAL: 13½ STARS...THIRD PLACE
4th Place...OAKLAND
Lineup: 1½*...nothing remotely scary here. Not when Jed Lowrie is your number 3 hitter.
Defense: 2*...good outfield for a big park. Huge foul territory helps them here, hurts them offensively. Bad shortstop and lowest fielding percentage in majors.
Rotation: 3*...because of Sonny Gray...now an Ace.
Bullpen: 3*...much better this year with Doolittle healthy and Madson solid for the 8th inning.
Leadership: 3*...no stress when nothing is expected. They are so out of the public mind that they sneak up on you with a bunch of no-names. Oakland always seems to have good team spirit. Their leader, Coco Crisp, may be healthy after neck trouble. BAD JUJU...suckiest stadium in baseball...a real rat's nest.
TOTAL: 12½ STARS...FOURTH PLACE
5th place...LOS ANGELES
You're probably surprised to see them this low, but I think the Angels are headed for disaster this season.
Lineup: 3*...first of all...Pujols had surgery on his foot and it's bothered him for years. He hit his homers last year, but batted only .244. He is close to the end. Cole Calhoun hit 26 homers but struck out 162 times and had a .308 OBP. Trout was great but strikes out a lot and has stopped stealing bases.
Yuniel Escobar may help a little as their new third sacker, but the team as a whole finished near the bottom in every important offensive category except homers. They needed to add a hitting outfielder but didn't. Now they've got Daniel Nava playing a hitter's position in left and C.J.Cron is the DH.
Defense: 3*...last in double plays but new shortstop Andrelton Simmons should fix that.
Rotation: 1½*...C.J.Wilson is hurt. That leaves them with Garrett Richards and not much else. They needed to add a free agent or two but didn't.
Bullpen: 2½*...Houston Street is good but he's coming off a bad groin injury at the end of last season.
Leadership: 2*...Manager Scioscia may go if they struggle. Front office failed the off season. Nothing much on the farm. Hamilton disaster haunts them.
TOTAL: 12 STARS...FIFTH PLACE


Next Up: the ever-lovin National League East.
'Til then...PLAY BALL!

Friday, April 1, 2016

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 2

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 2

Todays' topic is the AL CENTRAL.

Once again...here is my 5 STAR rating system...scientific in every detail including GOOD AND BAD TEAM JUJU!
(Note: my ratings are based on historical norms, not just in relation to present day teams. In other words...if I give a team a Leadership rating of 5, I'm saying this team is comparable to great chemistry teams like Jeter's Yankees of the late 90's and early 2000's...or Stargell's Pirates of '79, or Dizzy Dean and the St. Louis Gashouse Gang of the 30's. An historical 5 Star offensive club would be the 70's Reds etc.)

5*stars= among the best of all time.
4*stars=really good
3*stars=a little above average
2 ½*stars=average
1*star=stinko
0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.
I'm rating teams in 5 categories: offensive lineup, defense, rotation, bullpen and leadership.
Leadership” is mostly managers and coaches, but also includes the roles of the front office, clubhouse chemistry and inspiration and the ever elusive “JUJU”...good or bad.
Breaking offense down into categories like speed and power doesn't change the overall effectiveness of your offense. You can do it like Kansas City with small ball and speed or you can do like Toronto and brutalize people to death. It's still just offense.
Having two categories of pitching weights the final score accurately (I think) in that it recognizes the supreme importance of your pitching staff.
I also figure in team depth.
AL CENTRAL
1st place...KANSAS CITY
They've been to two World Series in a row and people are STILL underrating them. I've seen predictions that they would have a losing season, even. People are looking at their weak starting rotation and undervaluing their bullpen, defense and pugnacious can-do attitude.
Lineup: 4*...people are looking at raw offense and not making allowances for their extreme pitcher's ballpark. This lineup is stacked with good line-drive hitters, speed men, contact hitters and aggressive, knowledgeable pros. They had the fewest strikeouts (973...only team with less than a thousand and 200 less than anybody else)and also the fewest walks in baseball. They finished 24th in home runs but 3rd in batting, 1st in steals and still 7th in runs.
Defense: 4½*...great most everywhere, super in center, left, at first and catcher)
Rotation: 2½*...yep. Just average. But remember...they only have to go 6 innings. Ventura could eventually be an Ace...or he could stay an immature head-case.
Bullpen: 5*...Wade Davis is among best in the league along with Chapman, Miller, and Kimbrel. Their number 3...Soria...would be most team's number 1.
Leadership: 5*...a lot of these players came up through the system together. They are a Band of Brothers and that kind of leadership and team chemistry has been historically a priceless commodity. Perez at catcher is an inspirational guy who takes his lumps and keeps playing. Hosmer, Cain, Moose and Alex Gordon...are all real leaders.
The front office had a long-term plan to rebuild and stuck with it. They also tailored their club to their ballpark...something some of the other teams should try.
They've proven themselves a team that is never out of a game, and when you've done it time after time, you start believing in yourselves and your teammates. That kind of confidence saturates a team with a winning attitude.
TOTAL: 21 STARS...FIRST PLACE
2nd place...CLEVELAND(tie)
Lineup: 2*...Kipnis and Lindor are good hitters. Santana has power. Their best hitter... Michael Brantley...is out for two months with a shoulder injury, and that's a tough injury for a hitter to come back from. Everywhere else they are pretty weak. Bottom half of baseball in runs, total bases and runners left on base.
Defense: 3½*...this is a good team defensively. Lindor might be special at short.
Rotation: 4*...the strength of the club. Carrasco and Salazar could be stars on the rise to go with Corey Kluber. But these pitchers get frustrated with a lack of offensive support. Other good arms on the farm to fill in when needed.
Bullpen: 3½*...might need another leftie sometime against certain teams, but good arms here too. This pitching staff as a whole finished 2nd in opponents batting average last year. (.237)
Leadership: 3½*...manager Terry Francona keeps this score high. The Indians haven't gotten over the hump yet. If their pitchers turn into something like the Mets young staff they could get some confidence. Front office is lax in getting offensive players. (They need to have this pitching staff mixed with the Indians offense of the 90's!)
TOTAL: 16½ STARS...2ND PLACE (tie)
2nd place...MINNESOTA (tie)
This team baffles me. They barely have any pitchers who can throw 90. They're near the bottom in batting and on base percentage. And yet they win. They seem to have a gritty, spirited ball club. I chalk it up to a tradition of professionalism and leadership and some kind of Minnesota work ethic. Go Twinks!
Lineup: 3½*...the sum is greater than the parts. Dozier, Sano and Mauer are prime. If rookie Byron Buxton pans out and slugger Byung-ho Park delivers, this could be a much better lineup.
Defense: 4*...a very good defensive team.
Rotation: 2½*...workmanlike but never spectacular.
Bullpen: 2½*... nothing to write home about. Fairly reliable.
Leadership: 4*...GOOD JUJU? I don't know what else to attribute their success to. I think Paul Molitor was one of the smartest baseball players ever. He seems to have transferred that skill to managing. The front office realizes its financial limitations and goes about it's business. They lost last year's inspirational clubhouse leader Torii Hunter to retirement. Let's see how they step up.
TOTAL: 16½ STARS...SECOND PLACE (tie)
4th place...DETROIT
If Cabrera and Vmart and Verlander were still in their primes...maybe. But those guys are injury prone and the new guys can't pick up the slack. If they'd built a bullpen 6 years ago they might won 2 or 3 series by now.
Lineup: 3 ½*...they lose points by only having one left handed hitter (switch hitter Victor Martinez) in the everyday lineup. And he is very injury prone. Cabrera won another batting title but hits fewer homers now that he can't push off on his damaged ankle. Vmart favors a bad left knee. J.D.Martinez is a great young power hitter to bat fifth and putting new comer Justin Upton in the second spot between Kinsler and Cabrera could be a master stroke to break him out. If all these players were in their primes it would be a 5* lineup, lefties or no lefties.
Defense: 3½*...Gose is fast in center but goes mental sometimes. Iglesias is a wizard at short but gets hurt too much. I like McCann at catcher. Cabrera should be a DH by now. Less chance of injury than playing first.
Rotation: 3*...Verlander has had to learn how to get by with ordinary speed...he's now a number 3, not a number 1. Jordan Zimmerman is a very good pitcher, but not a number 1. He's pitched over 800 innings over the last 4 years. Fastball not that fast any more. (It happens to all of them) Anibel Sanchez is coming off injury. Norris and Pelfrey? Who knows what they'll do. Suspect all around. Cross your fingers Tigers fans.
Bullpen: 2½*...improved but unproven. Seem to be counting on a lot at closer from an aging KRod.
Leadership: 3*...even with all that hitting they finished last in 2015. That has to hurt their confidence. There's been some bad clubhouse JuJu with Iglesias. I liked Brad Ausmus as a player but I'm not impressed with him as a manager. He makes me miss Jim Leyland who I think was a better type of manager for these older players.
TOTAL: 15½ STARS...FOURTH PLACE
5th place...CHICAGO
There seems to be some kind of little war going on between the front office and the players over Adam LaRoche's young son hanging out in the clubhouse. It's given the season a sour start. Just what they needed. LaRoche retired and left $13 mil on the table rather than kick his son out after getting earlier permission.
Lineup: 1½*...this team was in the bottom six in every offensive category except batting (22nd) and LOB ((10th...cause they never had anybody on base!)Jose Abreu you can count on. They seem to think Todd Frazier can bat cleanup and do what he was doing in hitter-friendly Cincinnati but I predict Todd will have some of the first-year-in-the-AL-blues like so many hitters before him who were used to the NL style of fastball-first pitching patterns. (Albert Pujols,Hanley Ramirez,Pablo Sandoval)Also, Frazier won last year's home run derby at the All Star game...which is always the kiss of death.
The rest of that lineup is very weak. Adam Eaton is ok batting cleanup but ...guess what?...Melky Cabrera ain't gonna hit .345 anymore like he did when he was on steroids with the Giants. They lost LaRoche who was going to DH, so 5 through 9 is very light.
Defense: 1½*...they coughed up furballs in the field and played extremely sloppy ball. Newcomer Dioner Navarro might help at catcher.
Rotation: 3½*...4 lefties in the rotation. (Not so good when you've got to face Detroit 19 times!) Sale is a great Ace. Quintana and Rodon are both good. They all had ERA's around 3.50...could it be the terrible defense behind them and the anemic offense? It's a team sport, guys!
Bullpen: 2½*...Dave Robertson was good at closer and Zach Duke was occasionally effective. Everybody else was just spare change.
Leadership: 1½*...they have to fire Ventura if they get off to another rancid start. It might not be his fault but there's something rotten at U.S. Cellular Field. Four losing seasons in a row. The Cubs are relevant again and the parade is passing the White Sox by. At this point Hawk Harrelson is their leader and he's an announcer! VERY BAD JUJU!
TOTAL: 10½ STARS...FIFTH PLACE


COMING THIS WEEKEND: AL WEST! Tune into your inbox!