MARCO'S BASEBALL
BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS NL WEST
The sudden
appearance of Jeremy Hazelbaker...currently batting .483 for
the Cardinals...flashed me back to another famous “phenom”...Bob
“Hurricane” Hazle who came up to the Milwaukee Braves in July
of 1957 and batted .403 in 150+ at bats with a slugging % of .649. He
batted .553 in his first dozen games and was a big reason the Braves
held back the Cardinals and won the pennant.
For one summer
Braves thought they'd died and gone to heaven thinking about
Hurricane Bob teaming up with Aaron and Eddie Matthews to give them a
triple threat middle of the order. Bob didn't do so well in the
series with the Yankees, but he helped the Braves win the 7th
game with two hits. But then...
In 1958 NL pitchers
discovered he couldn't hit the curve and he batted .179 with a
slugging average also .179 (hard to do!). The Braves traded him to
Detroit and he was out of baseball the next year.
Maybe Hazelbaker
will last longer. He's starting late, though...28 years old. By the
way, he went to that perennial powerhouse baseball college Ball
State.
Let's predict the NL
West...if I wait any longer my predictions will be much better
because the season will be over!
Can I skip the
ratings this time? Just remember 2 ½ is average, 5 is among the
best of all time and 0 is...well...zero. I haven't rated anybody zero
yet but Cincinnati got one star for their pitching rotation until
they get Homer Bailey back.
1st
place...Los Angeles:
I've been badmouthing LA for so long that you probably can't believe
I'm picking them this year ...of all years...when they lost Greinke
and the Giants and Diamondhumps are so much better. Well I am a
perverse SOB when it comes to my predictions and I might be way off
but I got a feeling...and the feeling is named Dave Roberts.
New Manager Dave Roberts of the Dodgers is one of those guys
that everybody likes to be around. He's been a loved and valued bench
player for most of his career. Now he's a manager and he's just the
right fit for the Dodgers.
The Bluebloods have had a lot of stars, but also a lot of confusion
and pressure for years. They have been expected to win because they
are the most expensive team money can buy and they have the best
pitcher in Kershaw. They also have a lot of older players who
are fighting to stay in the lineup against some up and coming
youngsters. I think they've been playing tight for three years.
Roberts is not a hardcore guy like Mattingly. He's loose and
funny and friendly and kind of like laughing gas for a bunch of
uptight millionaires like the Dodgers. I think they'll respond. I
think it's also a blessing that most pundits are not picking them to
win the West. Stuff like that motivates a defending champ.
The other reason I'm picking the Dodgers is that I think the Giants
aren't going to be as good as people think...specifically their
pitching. Their closer, Romo, already went down with arm
trouble (too-many-slider-itis) Peavey and Cain are 5 innings 5
runs given up types now. That will overtax the bullpen. Samardzija
is still a project...with all that great stuff he still has
always underachieved. Jumpin' Johnny Cueto is now Jekyll and
Hyde. On any given day he might be great and the next time out he
loses it totally.
And Bumgarner...I hate to say this cause I love the guy...but
he looks like his arm is feeling the innings he's put on it the last
few years.
Let's face it, the Giants have abused his arm. They've left him in
games too long because he's such a gamer and they trust his heart. I
like his heart too, but I watched him give up 7 runs to the Dodgers
the other night and his cross-body pitches to right handed hitters
didn't have that snap and late breaking movement they used to. He
hung 3 belt high sliders to that Enrique Hernandez kid, who got two
homers and a double easily.
Anyway, the Giants have had two tremendous, full Ace pitchers in the
last few years...Lincecum and Cain...suddenly go south and not
recover. Is Bumgarner going to suddenly lose it too? I sure hope
not...he's my favorite pitcher since Pedro.
Back to the Dodgers:
Lineup: 3½*...If Puig comes back from voodooville the
middle of the order is strong with Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, Corey
Seager and Justin Turner. Howie Kendrick is back at
second. All their outfielders are hurt or head cases so that can hurt
them.
The big mystery is Joc Pederson. He batted .178 the second
half with only 6 homers. In the first half he hit some of the longest
homers in baseball, and I think he fell in love with himself. (He
also got on base with walks.)
Then he made the All Star home run derby and he screwed up his swing
uppercutting and trying to pull...he spent the rest of the season
platooning and changing his batting stance over and over.
Now he's good and bewildered. He looks like he just can't believe
that the pitchers are not going to throw that fat down and in pitch
to him so he can hit it to Ventura. The other night I watched him try
to pull a weak slider off the outside corner and down. He had a
tremendous uppercut and missed by a foot....and posed! He stood there
as if saying to the fans...wouldn't that have been beautiful if I'd
hit it? Then he struck out when they jammed him in and he half
committed to a swing and got rung up. He looked clueless.
Joc should study tapes of Hosmer from KC. That guy takes the
outside pitch the other way and doesn't try to hit everything into
the seats. He helps his team that way. Peterson should really study
Hosmer's hands...they have a World Series ring on them, Joc!
Defense: 4*...the infield is much better with Kendrick back.
Puig and Peterson can both go get it.
Rotation: 4*...I like the kid Maeda. He's going to be
pretty good for them I think. Along with Ryu and
Kazmir...they are much better than the Giants or Diamondbacks 1
through 5 in my opinion.
Bullpen: 2½*...they really haven't gone out and gotten
anybody to really help this bunch and it may cost them. After they
lost Aroldis Chapman, they seemed to lose focus on this weak
spot. Maybe they think some of their young pitching star prospects
can come up later in the season and upgrade the pen. Right now it's
not much until you get to Jansen.
Leadership: 4*...I think Dave Roberts is worth a full star to
them, at least. Even though the front office has made some
unfathomable trades, they are obviously committed to building the
team with their own prospects. That means they're looking at creating
a long term dynasty instead of going all out to win now. But if the
Dodgers are close late, surely they'll get some help? We'll see.
TOTAL: EIGHTEEN
STARS...FIRST PLACE
Tied for 1st
place...San Francisco:
Lineup:
3*...they'd be higher if they
didn't have such a terrible injury history. Every year they lose key
players to serious injury and have to muddle through. They have to
keep Posey and Pence
healthy or the middle of the order is pathetic. Why can't they find a
hitting left fielder?
Defense:
3*...again, the starters are
pretty good, but the Giants have to play so many fill-ins when the
regs go down that you can't give them a tremendously high score.
Rotation:
3½*...and that's giving them
the benefit of the doubt. People are rating them on name only...these
pitchers are not what they were and every one of them except
Bumgarner and Samardzija has had serious arm troubles in the recent
past. See above.
Bullpen:
3½*...the man they trust the
most...Romo...might be done for the year. Bochy
is a genius at mixing and matching in the pen, but even he has to
have raw materials. Also, like I said before...Peavy and Cain aren't
good for a lot of innings. The pen is always overworked anyway and
this year might be the breaking point.
Leadership:
5*...no doubt about it. This is
a helluva focused bunch of winners. It starts with Bochy and with a
front office that is savvy and doesn't meddle. They will get help
when it's needed. Posey, Pence, Panik, Pagan and
Brandon Crawford...gamers all.
They are a lot like Kansas City.
TOTAL: EIGHTEEN
STARS...TIED FOR FIRST PLACE
3rd
place...Arizona:
Lineup: 3*...oh
what a cruel blow! The Humps had one of the most productive offenses
last year and that's why they went out and got those two big arm
starting pitchers (Greinke and
Miller)
Then
A.J.Pollock broke his
elbow. He might get back this year or he might not...but he was the
other big gun they needed in the order to make teams pitch to
Goldschmidt. (They
aren't going to be afraid of Yasmany Tomas
or Socrates Brito!)
They lose a full star.
Defense:
2½*...the loss of center
fielder Pollock hurts them here too. Tomas is a black hole in right.
Rotation:
3½*...Greinke and Miller
should be good but they must adjust to a hitter's park and big
expectations. But how many stars do you think Rubby de la
Rosa and Robby Ray
are worth? Patrick Corbin might
be a good number three. If he is it's worth a half star. But
remember...he just had Tommy John. It's a shame that Archie
Bradley got hurt...that guy
could pitch.
Bullpen: 2*...it
has become apparent in this new age of baseball with the plague of
multiple Tommy John surgeries and pitch counts for high-priced star
pitchers that a good bullpen is essential for any team pretending to
be a contender. Arizona does not have a good bullpen. Therefore I
don't believe they can win.
Leadership:
3½*...you develop good
leadership by experiencing winning. The Humps haven't learned how to
really win yet. Maybe Greinke can teach them how. And Goldschmidt is
one of the most admirable superstars in the game today.
Tony La Russa
is an interesting judge of baseball talent. But he got used to
working with a great organization in St. Louis. The Cardinals
expected to be good every year. These Diamondbacks were forced to go
for it in the next two years because after that they start losing
their stars to free agency. They must win now and that forced them to
give up three great players for Shelby Miller and a ton of money for
Greinke.
After losing Pollock I think they are out of luck. BAD JUJU.
TOTAL: FOURTEEN
AND ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE
4th
place...Colorado:
Lineup: 4*...I'm
probably being generous. But they have Arenado and
Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon (45
steals). The new kid Drew Storey
is making them forget Tulo (at least in April!) If Jose
Reyes can play ball instead of
beating on his woman that offense could be scary.
Defense:
3½*...whoopie! Another thing
the Rockheads are kinda good at!
Rotation:
1½*...Yikes! You knew it was
coming but I didn't realize how pitiful their rotation was until I
really looked. The pitching staff as a whole was bottom 5 in ERA,
Wins, Saves and Opponent's Batting Average last year. Same old story
at Coors Stadium.
Bullpen:
1½*...more of the same.
World Class Bad.
Leadership:
1½*...they have tried
everything from banning any use of the curveball for all of their
minor league pitchers to taking out any pitcher after 80 pitches no
matter what the circumstance. Nothing works. They need a pitching
coach who can train a bunch of sinker ball pitchers to induce
groundballs..or something!
So
the front office has to get a failing score. They also insulted Tulo
by not telling him he had been traded until he heard it on Twitter or
something. He had specifically asked them to tell him first. Why
treat your all time best player like that? Unless you're a total
dufus. BAD JUJU!
Their good players Arenado and some of the other guys mentioned above
are the only reason they have any stars at all in this category.
Denver is a nice town...they deserve better. Bad JUJU!
TOTAL: TWELVE
STARS...FOURTH PLACE
5th
place...San Diego:
The most zombie of all the zombie teams. Nobody knows what San Diego
is doing. Last year they tried to get fans in the stadium by signing
free agents and trading for Kemp, Will Myers, Justin Upton and
James Shields. They knew they couldn't keep all of those guys for
more than a year but they needed to boost attendance. The team
collapsed and they started trading guys again...but not all of
them...are they trying to split hairs? In this day and age you can't
get caught in the middle. You have to go for it or rebuild.
One thing is for sure...this team sucks. What is it with San Diego?
It's a big city with a great climate...and they can't keep their ball
teams. The Chargers are trying to move to L.A. And the Padres might
as well move too.
Lineup: 2*...they finished bottom five in most offensive
categories last year and losing Upton hasn't made them any better.
Worst batting average in majors at .243.
Defense: 2*...they think they don't need a shortstop. Believe
me, they need a shortstop. Kemp isn't a good outfielder anymore.
Myers isn't good at first base.
Rotation: 2*...they will probably start selling off their
veteran pitchers and loading up on recruits...at least they will if
they're smart. They can get something for Shields and Tyler Ross
especially.
Bullpen: 1*...they traded Kimbrel to the Bosox for good
prospects. I guess they realize that you don't need a closer when
you're always behind.
Leadership: 1*...when you play for San Diego these days...you
know you've hit bottom.
TOTAL: 8
STARS...FIFTH PLACE
And now....in summary...here are my predictions all in one spot so
you can hold them against me more easily at the end of the season.
AL EAST: Toronto should win by 6 or 7 games with the other
teams bunched up behind pretty evenly.
TORONTO...19 *
NEW YORK...18*
BOSTON...16½*
BALTIMORE...15½*
TAMPA...13½*
AL CENTRAL: a
runaway for KC...still the best team in baseball.
KANSAS CITY...21*
CLEVELAND...16½*
MINNESOTA...16½*
DETROIT...15½*
CHICAGO...10½*
AL WEST: Houston
and Texas battle it out. Almost too close to call. L.A. Angels
collapse to last.
HOUSTON...18½*
TEXAS...17½*
SEATTLE...13½*
OAKLAND...12½*
LOS ANGELES
ANGELS...12*
WILD CARDS:
TEXAS and NEW YORK ...winner TEXAS
KC BEATS
TEXAS, TORONTO BEATS HOUSTON
KC BEATS
TORONTO IN 7.
NL EAST: Strictly
a two team race but New York should pull away at the end. Who can
beat Atlanta and Philly the most times?
NEW YORK...17*
WASHINGTON...14½*
MIAMI...13½*
PHILADELPHIA...11½*
ATLANTA...9*
NL CENTRAL: 3
way race with very little space between. Will be decided by injuries
and how each team does against the weak sisters Milwaukee and
Cincinnati.
PITTSBURGH...20*
CHICAGO...18*
ST. LOUIS...17½*
CINCINNATI...11½*
MILWAUKEE...10*
NL WEST: I predict San Francisco and Los Angeles will tie and
have to play a one game playoff to decide the division winner. The
loser may not be the wild card because of the strong Central. Should
be an epic game!
LOS ANGELES
DODGERS...18*
SAN
FRANCISCO...18*
ARIZONA...14½*
COLORADO...12*
SAN DIEGO...8*
WILD CARDS:
CHICAGO and ST. LOUIS ...winner CHICAGO
DODGERS BEAT
GIANTS IN ONE GAME PLAYOFF FOR WEST TITLE.
CHICAGO BEATS
NEW YORK
PITTSBURGH
BEATS LOS ANGELES
PITTSBURGH
BEATS CHICAGO IN 6
WORLD SERIES:
KANSAS CITY
BEATS PITTSBURGH IN 6 GAMES.
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