Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Predictions NL Central

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS NL CENTRAL

Just pretend for a moment that it's the last day of the season and the NL Central standings have St. Louis and Chicago tied for first place with one game to go. The Pirates are a couple back but are guaranteed the second wild card spot while the Cards and Cubs are assured of either winning the division and getting the by week or at least getting the first wild card.

Let's say in our imaginary universe that the Cards are playing a day game against Cincinnati on the last day of the season while the Cubs are playing the Pirates in a night game. The Cubs start John Lackey and are saving Jake Arrieta in case they need him to win the Wild Card play-in game against Pittsburgh or the tie breaker with St. Louis.

Let's say the Cards win that day game before the Pirates-Cubs game starts. So now if the Cubs win this game they will tie with the Cards and have to play a tie-breaker with them to decide who wins the division.

The Pirates are getting the second wild card anyway so they have nothing to lose if they dump this game with the Cubs and force them to pitch Arrieta to win the tie-breaker against the Cards. Then at least if they play the Cubs they won't have to face Arrieta. And the Cards will have probably used up their best available starter too.

If the Pirates beat the Cubs they are rewarded by having to face Arrieta in a one game takes all scenario. So by any measure, the Pirates are better off losing that game. So in my imaginary and sordidly corrupt universe the Pirates start some rookie from Dirt City, Utah and load up the lineup with prospects while they rest their starters.

The Cubs have something to play for and whack the Buccos 14 to 0 and then have to go play the Cards for first place. Advantage Pirates who get a day of rest and then face a depleted opponent in the Wild Card game.

Preposterous you say? Well someday this is going to happen with the Wild Card rule they now have in effect. Just like the San Antonio Spurs like to tank meaningless games in the NBA to rest their stars, baseball is wide open to a tank job that will benefit the losing club. Except it will decide the playoffs!

I don't know if baseball has ever had a situation where it clearly benefited one team to lose a game. They could have it in my wicked scenario and you will rue the day! Mark my Words!

You're probably tired of seeing it but here, once again, is my ratings system:

5*stars= among the best of all time.

4*stars=really good

3*stars=a little above average

2 ½*stars=average

1*star=stinko

0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.

NL CENTRAL:

1^st place...Pittsburgh:

Egads, you croak! (I hear you croaking at me...don't deny it) Perella has flipped out and is picking against the adorable little predestined-for-greatness Cubbies! And he's not even sticking with the ever-excellent Cardinals! He's wishful-thinking the outmanned Pirates into a title! Well...yep..that's what I'm doing.

It's not wishful thinking 'cause while I'm appreciative of the Pirates I have badmouthed them for years because they can't keep enough stars to ever break through and win something big. I pick the Cards to win every year because they do. And I readily admit that the Cubs are the best team on paper in the National League this year. I think everybody is justified in picking them to win this year. I just don't think they will. Pro and Con:

The Cubs went out and got exactly the right players to help their young team...Heyward and Zobrist are seasoned pros who still have a lot left. Zobrist was on the World Series Champs last year and knows what it feels like. Used to play for Joe Maddon at Tampa. He's versatile and a good clubhouse guy. So is Heyward who is also the best defensive outfielder they could have gotten. (Their outfield needed defensive help if they planned on playing Schwarber and Soler a lot.)

They also got John Lackey to be their number 3 starter. Lackey wound up the Cardinals top pitcher last year. He's also John Lester's best friend. So that's three old pros to help settle down the exciting youth of America team the Cubs have brilliantly developed. All praise to Theo Epstein.

What's even more devious is that in getting Heyward and Lackey, the Cubs robbed their division rivals, the Cards, of two great, hard to replace players. (They overpaid for Heyward, but so what...they have the money and are saving a bundle with all those cheap rookies.) Got to give the Cubs an A for the off season.

However, Schwarber just went down for the season with a knee. (Sad!) That's a big loss, offensively, even though they have depth.

And I think it's a little premature to assume that all these young players will smoothly improve without a hiccup.

This team...especially Bryant and Soler... strikes out way too much. Chicago also finished 29^th in batting, 19^th in total bases and slugging. 29^th in runners left on base. Those are not very impressive stats for a team that's supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. Of course, that's against the whole of major league baseball, AL included, but still...they play in Wrigley Field! You're supposed to run up the score! I think the league may have gotten a good read on how to get these free-swinging youngsters out. The Mets sure did.

The Cubs are not a good defensive club either, although Heyward helps a lot in the outfield...but maybe not as much in center if they move him out of his happy home in right.

Also, the bullpen is inferior to both the Cards and the Pirates...and bullpens are essential in modern baseball.

So I see the Cubs still winning well over 90 games...they still have Rizzo, Addison Russell (an almost unnoticed future star at 22) and Arrieta as a stopper. And they have a very good leader in manager Joe Maddon.

I think the Cubs are a year away.

The Cards are still stacked with great young arms and they get Wainwright back. But they didn't quite get anybody to replace Heyward and Lackey was their only pitcher who didn't get hurt all the time. They seem to lack offense now that Holliday is fading. Piscotti and Grichuk are good looking kids but they aren't Pujols in the middle of the order.

Yadier Molina is still the best defensive catcher in the business but they had to wire his thumb together and how much pounding can that thing take day after day on his glove hand? Sure can't help his hitting any, either.

So, I see the Cardinals as weaker. Don't get me wrong...they'll still be plenty good. And they'll probably go out and get some help. But they are not a sure thing this year.

I just think the Pirates are ripe. They're sick of getting beat in the Wild Card game and they are motivated to win now before all their stars turn into free agents.

Here's how I rate them:

Lineup: 4*...I think Starling Marte is a star about to break out. Polanco too. I like Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison at short and second. Third sacker Kang finished second in Rookie of the Year votes even though he only played in 126 games before he broke his leg. Kid can hit and get on base. He'll be back early in the season. I also like batting McCutcheon second. He'll get more at bats and more good pitches to hit. And he can use his speed to best effect early in the order.

Defense: 2½*...average at best but Cervelli was a huge surprise at catcher. He was great with the pitchers and hit some too. (.295) Every good club starts with an ace at catcher.

Rotation: 4*...I think Gerrit Cole is ready for a dominating year. Because of the Pirates pitching philosophy (have a shutdown bullpen ...get a result in 3 pitches...use cutters to get ground balls), Cole won 19 games in only 208 innings pitched. (Arrieta had over 250 if you count the post season) He might not even be their best pitcher. Liriano won game after big game for the Bucs. They have three lefties in the rotation and youngster Tyler Glasnow averaged 11.8 K's per nine in the minors. (ok...full disclosure...he's very wild on occasion.)

Bullpen: 4½*...best in the league. Balanced and talented. Outside of Melancon they don't have household names but they get it done.

The thing with Pirates pitching is that they have a genius pitching coach named Ray Searage who rehabs all these old cast-off guys like Liriano and A.J.Burnett and squeezes 3 more years of wins out of them. This year his projects are starter Jon Niese and reliever Neftali Feliz (who the Rangers ruined by trying to turn him into a starter) and I bet those guys give a lot of value to the Bucs this year.

Leadership: 5*...they've always had a great team spirit, led by the ebullient 'Cutch and the Grizzled One...manager Clint Hurdle. I already mentioned Searage and the pitching staff worships at his altar. The front office can't afford free agents but they trust the players they get. I mentioned the intangibles of really wanting to win it while this team is together. Most of all: GOOD JUJU!

TOTAL: TWENTY STARS...FIRST PLACE

2^nd place...Chicago:

Lineup: 3½*...cause they strike out so much. They lose another half point for losing Schwarber...that kid can rake.

Defense: 2½*...a couple of black holes in the defense. Heyward and Russell (at short) are standouts.

Rotation: 4½*... they have the top pitcher in baseball or close to it (you can make an argument for Kershaw, Greinke, Bumgarner and maybe Scherzer too). Lester and Lackey are strong at 2 and 3 and Hendricks and Hammel aren't bad.

Bullpen: 3*...kind of weak if you plan on winning it all. Warren was a good pickup from the Yankees for Castro. Rondon is the closer and he doesn't excite. But this team finished fourth in bullpen ERA last year so they aren't terrible.

Leadership: 4½*...still young but Rizzo is a leader. So is Zobrist and Maddon keeps them loose. And how much confidence does a guy like Arrieta give them when he's out there? One of the top front offices in the game. Also GOOD JUJU.

TOTAL: EIGHTEEN STARS...SECOND PLACE

3^rd place...St. Louis:

Lineup: 3*...several good hitters in the lineup, but they are all about number six types...nothing formidable in the middle of the order. No Vuottos, McCutcheons or Rizzos.

Defense: 3½*...the Cards are always pretty good in the field, but they aren't exceptional except for Molina. He's worth about a whole star by himself.

Rotation: 3½*...Lance Lynn was their number 2. He went down the Tommy John Trail. They traded Shelby Miller to Atlanta in the Heyward deal (Miller subsequently went to Arizona for three great prospects) and Miller was a good young pitcher. Then they lost Lackey. Now they're short. They have to depend on the oft injured and aging Wainwright to be their Number 1. He's not anymore.

Wacha is a power arm who gets hurt regularly. Carlos Martinez is still trying to live up to the “Little Pedro” sobriquet. Jaime Garcia and Tyler Lyons fill out the rotation. Wacha, Martinez and Garcia have all had shoulder issues.

Yadier makes this rotation a whole ERA run better...but none of these guys is a safe bet to make it through the season in one piece. I predict at least three of them will go down and the Cards will be filling holes all year. The Cards now have a tradition of losing pitchers to arm troubles. Somebody needs to change something.

BAD JUJU!

Bullpen: 3½*...Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness, Broxton...the Cards should be ok in this department.

Leadership: 4*...The Cardinals expect to be good. They have one of the very best orgs in baseball and they live up to it most years. But this year I see adversity stalking them. The Cubs beat them badly in the off season and the Pirates are still hanging around. They don't have an offensive superstar...just some solid blue collar hitters. Their pitching is down from recent seasons.

They still might sneak in to the playoffs just on Molina and moxie, but look for them to go get help for that to transpire.

TOTAL: SEVENTEEN and ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE

4^th place...Cincinnati:

Lineup: 2*...they still have Vuotto and Brandon Phillips is defying time. Jay Bruce hit 26 dingers on a .226 average. Billy Hamilton batted .226 as well but stole 57 bases. They traded Todd Frazier. They don't score much. Vuotto only got 80 ribbies on a .314 average with 29 homers batting third. The Reds finished 26th in runs scored playing in a hitter's park.

Don't worry about the Reds...they're not trying to hurt you!

Defense: 2½*...just average almost everywhere and catcher Devin Mesoraco and shortstop Zach Cozart are coming off serious injuries.

Rotation: 1*...what did you expect when you traded Cueto and Leake and lost Homer Bailey to surgery? Do you really think those rookie pitchers are going to light up the league? If Homer comes back mid season they might get another half star out of this group.

Bullpen: 2*...hope you got something good for Aroldis Chapman. (They really didn't)

Leadership: 4*...no matter how suckie this team gets...they always have a competitive spirit. They are the Reds, by God and they will try to beat you. Vuotto, Phillips and Bruce came to play and play they will. If manager Bryan Price can get his pitching staff on the right track he may last til the All Star break. The Reds mistimed their rebuild but they'll be back.

TOTAL: ELEVEN AND ONE HALF STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5^th place...Milwaukee:

Another rebuild underway. It should be depressing in Wisconsin for awhile. They have talented youngsters coming up though.

Lineup: 1½*...they traded Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. They will try to trade Jonathon Lucroy (he set an all time record for catchers with 53 doubles in 2014). They can't trade Ryan Braun 'cause he makes too much money. They finished in the bottom ten in baseball in almost every offensive category last year. It will be worse this year.

Defense: 1*...Oh God does it suck. When they trade Lucroy knock another half star off.

Rotation: 1½*...if you listen carefully you can hear the dead arms rotting. Matt Garza? Taylor Jungmann? Willy Peralta?

Bullpen: 3*...the strength of the team! 3.40 ERA ranked fifth in the NL. They traded closer KRod however.

Leadership: 3*...Craig Counsell might get them to play scrappy ball and they could annoy people to death. But when your spiritual leader is Ryan Braun?

TOTAL: TEN STARS...FIFTH PLACE

Thus ends the saga of the NL Central! Join us next time while we desecrate the NL West.

And of course, the final predictions (I'm already in trouble with my Minnesota and Baltimore rankings!)

Hasta la Vista!