Marco's Baseball blog-O-Roonie 2019: THE GYPSY WILL SEE YOU NOW

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2019: THE GYPSY WILL SEE YOU NOW

Happy Opening Day! Just in case you were thinking of sitting this season out and coming back on line when the Playoffs start, here's what's going to happen:

AL EAST:

1/Red Sox

2/Yankees

3/Rays

4/Blue Jays

5/Orioles

The Red Sox and the Yankees will be entertaining us with their latest death struggle. All “Bird” teams will be plucked frequently. The Rays will pitch great, play defense great, run great and not draw a lick of a crowd. No one will ever know how good they are. They will be about two players short of true contention as usual.

Most people figure the Yanks will take the division, but I have to pick the Sox. My evaluation and justifications:

PITCHING: The Yankees bullpen is so much better than the Boston pen that's its ridiculous. You know the names...Chapman, Britten, Ottavino and more. Even with Betances hurt they have five guys better than ANYONE in the Boston pen.

Dave Dombrowski (Boston GM) is famous for under-stocking his bullpens. He just can't bring himself to spend money on relievers. This year he let his closer, Craig Kimbrel, leave as a free agent. Craig was hallucinating that he was worth a 5 year $100 mil plus contract and he wasn't. That's okay. But Joe Kelly, the second best arm out there, went to L.A. No replacement. Then the knuckle ball pitcher Steven Wright, who at least can eat up innings with that no-stress knucksie, got busted for impurities in the blood. (Dumbshit! Now your name must forever remain un-bold typefaced!!) Still, no replacement. The only thing the Red Sox say is that leftie Tyler Thornburg should be back. (He's been hurt for, like, two years). They don't even have another leftie with any kind of name recognition. Brian Johnson? Bobby Pointer?

I get that the Sox are saving money to give to Mookie Betts. They gave a big extension to Chris Sale. They re-signed their World Series heroes Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce. They want to keep Xander Bogaerts at short. So they won't go over the luxury tax penalty threshold this year.

But this year the crown is there for the taking. That thriftiness may cost them another world title.

The good news is the Red Sox' rotation. Chris Sale is re-signed and extended and his arm should be fresh (for the first 5 months anyway). David Price rediscovered the cut on his cutter messing around in the bullpen during the World Series. If he keeps it cutting it's a whole new problem for hitters. Rick Porcello bends but never seems to break. A great Number 3. Nathan Eovaldi...you remember his moment of epic gutsiness and tenacity in WS Game 3. That has to help his confidence. Everybody on the team knows that his stuff is simply the best. If his arm hangs on he could dominate as a starter or a multi-inning reliever if they need him more in the pen. Number 5 is Eduardo Rodriguez...another leftie with great stuff who has yet to get it all together. What if he finally figures it out? A hell of a Number 5, that's what.

Now look at the Yankee's starters. Severino, the presumed Numero Uno, is hurt. So is C.C. Sabathia. That leaves them with Masahiro Tanaka as the Ace to start the season with. He gave up 27 homers last year. James Paxton, over from Seattle, has to be good, and despite throwing a no-hitter last year, he really isn't. He also gives up a lot of homers and had the third highest hard hit rate in baseball, right behind Matt Moore and Homer Bailey. J.A.Happ is their best bet, but he was slotted for Number 4. He's a leftie who should do well at the stadium but may not be your first choice to pitch a big game at Fenway.

So going into the season they have to fill two spots. Domingo German is picked for one. His ERA last year was 5.57. They have some good prospects coming up, but it's a lot to ask for rookies to carry that load.

Anyway, I think the Boston starters are close to being as far above the New Yorker rotation as the Yank bullpen is above the Bosox' pitiful bullpen. Would you rather have starters dominating the first six innings or the relievers dominating the last 3 innings? Yeah, me too.

CATCHING: Another problem for the Pinstripers. They play Gary Sanchez even though he is a real boxer trying to catch pitches in the dirt. His defensive flaws are supposed to be forgiven because of his big bat, but he hit .186 last year. (He hit 18 homers in an injury shortened season. But everybody on the Yankees hits homers.)

Baseball tradition says that a catcher's prime value to the team is defense and handling pitchers. That's why you see so many weak hitting catchers still starting for so many teams. They don't care if their catcher hits or not, they need him to be a defender who can give a staff confidence first-est and most-est. If you do get lucky and find a catcher like Yogi Berra or Roy Campanella who can contribute with the bat as well...you have a 3-time MVP award winner.

The Red Sox catchers are Christian Vasquez (.207/.540 ops) and Sandy Leon (.177/.511 ops). How on earth can they keep jobs with those kind of stats? (8 homers between them so don't think it's power hitting!) It's because they are exceptional receivers and the pitching staff absolutely loves them. Porcello calls Sandy Leon “the best catcher I've ever thrown to” and the “heartbeat” of the pitching staff. Vasquez is great at blocking balls and throwing out runners (something that in all fairness, Gary Sanchez is exceptional at as well).

These two catchers are so good that the Sox can't find a spot for Blake Swihart even though he looks like a consistent .300 hitter from the left side who also runs well and can play outfield or first base.

I see catching as a big advantage for the Bostonians.

Just watch the body language of a Yankee pitcher next time Sanchez Oles one of his sliders.

Defense: The Sox have the best defensive outfield in baseball.

The Yankees have Aaron Judge (pretty good) in right, Giancarlo (slow but with a good arm) in left and Brett Gardner (old but game) in center until Aaron Hicks (hurt) gets back. They had to trade for a backup outfielder.

In the infield the Yankees have a hurt shortstop in Didi Gregorius, who was also the team leader and locker room clown. They made a gutsy pickup in Troy Tulowitzki to fill in at short, but after all those leg surgeries Troy has lost a lot of range. (By the way, I'm rooting for Troy to be Comeback Player of the Year...the baseball Gods owe him a year like that after all that he has had to endure). The third baseman Andujar is really bad. Gleyber Torres is pretty good at second and could move to short if Troy gets hurt again. Then they could play Gold Glover D.J.LeMahieu at second. First base is a platoon amongst Voit (big bopper late last season), Greg Bird (didn't hit last year, looked good in Spring Training), and occasionally LeMahieu.

Except for perhaps the latter, they're all merely adequate defenders at first.

The Sox have Devers at third who is better than Andujar but still sloppy. Bogaerts is at short...a middle of the pack type defensive shortstop but top five offensively. If Pedroia was 100% you'd have a Gold Glove quality second baseman but Pedey starts the year on the injured list. Brock and Nunez are valuable backups but no Robby Alomars. Moreland and Steve Pearce platoon at first...Moreland is very good.

Let's be generous and call it a push in the infield but a huge advantage for the Sox at catching and in the outfield defensively speaking.

OFFENSE: The Yankees have the power. They'll probably break the homer record this year. But since power is the main thing people see, it gives the illusion that the Yankees are way stronger than the Sox. But the Yankees also don't have anybody who hit .300 last year except Luke Voit (.333 in 143 at bats). Their first five look like this: Gardner (.236/12 home runs/.690 ops) Judge (.278/27/.919 112 games)

Stanton (.266/38/.852) Sanchez (.186/18/.697 89 games) Bird/Voit (.199/11/.672 82 games)/ (.333/14/1.085 39 games)

The Red Sox first five? Benintendi (.290/21/ops .830), Betts (.346/32/ops 1.079), Devers (.240/21/.731), Martinez (.330/43/1.031), and Bogaerts (.288/23/.883)

The Boston lineup is close to New York in power and quite superior in hitting. The Sox as a team had a better on base percentage and OPS than the Yanks and led in steals as well.

CONCLUSION: With injuries as a major variable, all things considered I think the Red Sox are a superior team to the Yankees. That's why I'm picking them to finish first in the East.

AL CENTRAL:

1/Indians

2/Twins

3/White Sox

4/Royals

5/Tigers

Cleveland is the soundest of five severely flawed teams in the Central. That's because the Cleaver's starting rotation is the one “A” group in the division.

The Ohio Politically Incorrects spent the winter bleeding players with no money-sponge to staunch the wounds. It's very sad because they came so close to beating the Cubs in '16 and have made the playoffs several years in a row. But small market teams are doomed to losing all their good players sooner or later. Frankie Lindor is hurt for the early season and Jose Ramirez has also been limping. The pitching has to be awfully good if those guys can't play.

The Hanley Ramirez DH pickup was desperate but could be a season saver if he hits.

The Twinks have a few good players but not enough pitchers. They are not coordinated to peak as a team with Joe Mauer now retired and Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano still not dependable.

The Chicago Southsiders are getting a potential superstar in Eloy Jimenez but their young pitchers are still at least a year away from producing at a Playoff-competitive level.

At least they tried to get Machado or Harper but wound up with only Machado's uncle or something.

The Royals have speed in their lineup and they may win some with the running game, but they only won 58 games last year and they lost catcher Sal Perez for the season. Again...not enough pitching and no money to go get it.

The Tigres lost their Number One starter Michael Fulmer to TJ surgery. Miguel Cabrera is 35 and still can hit .300, but good fastballs get passed him now and the shadows are lengthening. Salute him...he's one of the great hitters of all time.

AL WEST:

1/Astros

2/A's

3/Angels

4/Mariners

5/Rangers

The surest of sure things...the 'Stros will win the West. I know they lost pitching but they still have Verlander and Cole one-two and Brad Peacock (13 K's per 9 innings) and Colin McHugh (almost 12 K's per 9) have been pretty good starters in past years. They picked up Wade Miley to add a leftie to the rotation and he was pretty ok for the Brewers last year. For backup they have Josh James (a Bob Gibson lookalike who throws true Gas!) and Number One minor league pitching prospect Forest Whitley.

The 'Stros had an effective offense last year even with Altuve and Correa hurting. They've added a .300 leftie hitter in Michael Brantley and if little Jose and Carlos can stay limber they will be scary once again.

I'll tell you right now, it's Houston or New York or Boston in the Series for the AL.

Oakland's big boppers will probably get them another Wild Card.

The Angels and Mike Trout will have to wait for a new generation of young players to get them back to the Playoffs. Pujols, Upton, Calhoun, Cozart and Lucroy are all declining. Pitching is only average.

Seattle has chucked it in for a rebuild. Will the fans still come out during it?

The Rangers have fallen into the pit. If they win 60 games I'll be surprised.

AL MVP: Alex Bregman (will lead in hits and runs scored and maybe doubles as well)

AL CY YOUNG: Nathan Eovaldi (a sentimental pick)

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (if he diets)

AL BATTING CHAMP: Andrew Benintendi (leads off in front of Mookie)

AL HOME RUN CHAMP: Aaron Judge (bombs away Dream Baby!)

AL RBI CHAMP: J.D. Martinez

AL STEALS: Billy Hamilton

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

NL WEST:

1/Dodgers

2/Rockies

3/Diamondbacks

4/Padres

5/Giants

This is the only easy division winner in the NL to pick. The Angelinos have maintained while all the others have fallen far. Only the Rockies may seriously contend.

The Dodgers for some reason are pinching pennies these days. They passed on Harper, who was practically begging to go to their team (as long as they came up with $300 million of course!) They picked up A.J. Pollack from Arizona to play center field. Kershaw is hurt again and is no longer the Bomb. What a great career he's had. I hope he still has something left. The Dodgers have a seemingly endless supply of pitchers lined up so don't worry about them too much.

The core of the Rockies' offense ...Arenado, Story and Blackmon...is still there and they've added Daniel Murphy, who should hit well in the Coors doubles machine. They need Ian Desmond and David Dahl to help out more.

Starters German Marquez and Kyle Freeland pitched well in Coors last year...a rare phenomenon for Colorado pitchers. But the staff still lacks depth and I thought the Rocks looked completely befuddled against the Brewers in the Playoffs last year. They've got to show up in the clutch.

The Diamondhumps are another sad tale of a middling team that has spent all their money on big contracts and couldn't win the Big One. When Paul Goldschmidt went to St. Louis and signed a long term you could feel them wince all the way from Phoenix.

Things are looking up for the Padrinos. Manny Machado opted to stay warm and unobsequious in San Diego rather than go to a pennant contender. San Diego MAY be on the way to competing soon, though. They seem to have a bunch of good young arms in the minors and now have an offensive and defensive core of everydays in Machado, Hosmer, and rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. to go with Will Myers. At least I don't think they'll finish last this year because of…

San Francisco. Oh Boy, does it hurt to say this. The Giants look like a last place club. Their core is too old. Period.

“Goodbye Old Paint, I'm a leavin' Cheyenne.” It was a good run. See you on the rebound.

NL CENTRAL:

1/Cardinals

2/Cubs

3/Brewers

4/Pirates

5/Reds

This should be a battle all year to win the division. The Cubs or the Brewers are the popular choice, but the Brewers did nothing to help themselves in the off season and neither did the Cubs. The Cardinals tapped into the Loyal Cardinal Fan Money Machine and came up with Goldschmidt to bat cleanup. The help he'll bring to Ozuna, Carpenter, DeJong and the rest of the St. Louis lineup should be a multiplier effect.

They also got Andrew Miller to compliment Jordan Hicks, John Brebbia and Dakota Hudson in the bullpen. Now, if Carlos Martinez can get healthy and Wainwright and Wacha produce…???

The Cubbies won 95 games last year but looked lost and confused at the end of the season when Milwaukee sent an endless parade of relievers out to torment them. The Cubs are strapped for cash because they owe too much to non-producers like Yu Darvish and Justin Heyward. When your big off season pickup is Daniel Descalso (who is actually a great little scrappy player) you know you're in trouble. But the Cubs still have the solidest rotation in the division. But Hamels, Lester et all are getting along now. They really, really need Darvish to come through.

The Bad Bad Brewers were standing pat this winter, watching the rest of the league play catch-up. They assume Yelich and Co. are going to have another red letter season. I think that's a great big Maybe. And despite their insane bullpen work last year, bullpens have a way of folding up overnight when they get too much use. And I didn't like the way Craig Counsell managed the team. And you all know what I think of Ryan (never again Bold Faced) Braun.

I could live to eat these words but I see a fall coming. Fortune Favors the Bold. Those Who Stand Pat Will Soon Lie Flat.

I'm picking the Pirates to finish ahead of the Reds for after thought awards in the Central not because they're good, but because they at least have pitchers that can help them stay in games. Taillon, Archer, Williams, Musgrove and Keller are all pretty darn good as starters and Taillon is a Cy Young threat. Vasquez, Tela and Rodriguez are all stellar in the pen.

As far as the offense goes, Francisco Cervelli...that's right, the catcher...THAT Cervelli...bats cleanup. And their big off season pick up was Lonnie Chisenhall. That's probably all you need to know. I will admit that the outfield of Corey Dickensen, Starling Marte (whoops! No bold face for you either, Cheater!) and Greg Polanco (if he recovers fully from shoulder surgery) is one of the best in the League.

And oh how I wish that I could tell you that Cincinnati is back. But if wishes were Grandmas we'd all have cookies and hot chocolate.

I look forward to the first time Madison Bumgarner of the Giants faces new Cincy outfielder Yasiel Puig. It was a fight almost every time those two faced off when Puig was a Dodger. Once Bumgarner gets a load of Yasiel tossing bats in that Red uniform... Aye! Toro!

NL EAST:

1/Nationals

2/Braves

3/Phillies

4/Mets

5/Marlins

Should be the most interesting division in baseball. Any of the top four could win. Atlanta won it last year, but the Nationals were closing fast and have improved. The Mets made myriad moves and want to play. And the Phillies got shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder and former Pirate icon Andrew McCutcheon and top catcher J.T.Realmuto. Oh yeah...and some guy named Harper. Still, the only sure thing in this division is the Marlins losing 110 games.

I know I'm guessing but I like four things about the Nationals. First, they have great starters 1-3 in Scherzer, Strasburg and new leftie Patrick Corbin. Second, they have two young outfielders, Juan Soto and Victor Robles, who should be fixtures for years. Third they got two plus catchers to handle their pitching staff...Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki. Good catching is such a necessity for a team and catcher was the Nat's weakest position.

And fourth, they lost Bryce Harper. That's right, they LOST HIM. Everybody now looks at the Nats like “It's over Dog! Your Star is gone and you never won the Big One!”

I think that may screw their courage to the sticking place so to speak and the Nats may come barking back. They still have Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Ryan Zimmerman (and picked up gamer Brian Dozier to replace Danny Murphy at second base) to augment those new kids and the catchers.

What does Redemption smell like? Doggie Poots, maybe?

Atlanta caught the rest of the National League with their pants down last year. This year teams will be readier for them. But they have great young players with more young pitchers on the way, an excited fan base and plenty of money to add help when they need it.

They missed out on J.T.Realmuto but picked up Brian McCann to help Tyler Flowers catch and Josh Donaldson to see if he can rekindle that MVP flame at third base. If Josh does, and if Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr. stay healthy, The Bravos will be dangerous. If Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte produce like they did last year Atlanta could smoke the East.

Pitching is iffier, but the Braves have 3 of the top 50 prospects in baseball farmed out: Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson and Mike Soroka...all big, right handed studs and potential Number 1's or 2's who are ready to move up. They also have Haitian Touki Toussaint, who made the rotation this year and is a very interesting young pitcher.

The Atlanta Braves are going to be contenders now and in the foreseeable future.

So will the Phillies be if they can add some pitchers to their now formidable everyday lineup. I had the Phillies finishing second last year but they quit early and slumped to third as the Nationals punished them down the stretch.

There was a lot of sloth and mirth and video games in the Phillie locker room last year as the youngsters enjoyed life and phoned in a pennant race. Where was manager Gabe Kapler while all this crap was going on? Somebody needed to kick some ass. Maybe the addition of Andrew McCutcheon, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper and especially catcher J.T.Realmuto will change that culture. These are all pros who have never won and they know how hard you have to work to compete in the majors. As far as I'm concerned, the manager and his coaches should be on notice.

I have the Phils third because of that and the lack of a solid 1 through 5 starting rotation. After Nola there are a lot of questions. Can Jake Arrieta get some of his mojo back? Can I believe in Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez? I really don't know. I think J.T. is going to help a whole lot behind the plate.

I hear you Mets fans screaming at me. “You're picking us Fourth!! You're daft you Bum, your Mother squeezed your head!!”

My reply: You poor deluded fools. Don't you know that you are rooting for a team of thoracic syndromes waiting to happen? Right now, you have the best rotation in the division with the possible exception of Washington. But when's the last time the top four have all pitched a full season before last year? Like...never! DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and Matz (Matz and Thor pitched 154 innings each last year) have all gone down with various horrors over the last four years. But you Mets fans probably have convinced yourselves that “This is the year, Baby”. You also think that Robbie Cano is Jesus even though he's 36 and newly steroid-denied. And when Yoanis Cespedes (33) comes back from a permanent hamstring pull you'll ride with the Valkyries into Valhalla.

I have learned not to hold my breath waiting for the Mets. They'll have to prove it to me.

Let's not waste any more time discussing the Florida Marlins. Happy Draft Choices, Derek Jeter.

NL MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr. (the young Henry Aaron?)

NL CY YOUNG: Max Scherzer (He'll outlast DeGrom)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Victor Robles (speed and defense)

NL BATTING CHAMP: Freddie Freeman

NL HR CHAMP: Rhys Hoskins (Phillies...the lineup favors him, batting after Bryce)

NL RBI CHAMP: Rhys Hoskins (ditto)

NL STEALS: Trea Turner (won it last year and has studied the pitchers now)

THE GYPSY SPEAKS!:

AL Division Winners: Boston, Cleveland, Houston

NL Division Winners: Washington, St. Louis, Los Angeles

AL Wild Cards: New York, Oakland

NL Wild Cards: Atlanta, Chicago

ALL Pennant: New York over Oakland, Boston over New York, Houston over Cleveland, Houston over Boston.

NL Pennant: Chicago over Atlanta, Washington over Chicago,

Los Angeles over St. Louis, Washington over Los Angeles

World Series: Houston over Washington.

You Fellows have a Splendid Season, Now, Ya hear me? Here's a story to inspire and sustain you as you peruse your box scores…

Babe Ruth was known for living large off of the baseball diamond and enjoyed many late night activities. His roommate, Ping Bodie has been attributed as saying, “I don’t room with Ruth, I room with his suitcase."

"Yankee teammate Bob Meusel was fond of telling a story about the night he shared a hotel suite with Babe. The Bambino made love to one woman after another, contemplatively smoking a cigar after each dalliance. In the morning, Meusel asked Babe how many girls he had been with the previous night. Ruth glanced at the ashtray, and so did Meusel. There were seven butts in the tray. “Count the cigars,” said Babe.

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2019: LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2019: LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS!

Oh Thank God that Manny Machado signed with a baseball team at last. So now I know who to root against this year.

In a way, he couldn't have picked a better team to obscure his feckless attitude and questionable sportsmanship. San Diego is never on TV at an hour when you can actually stay awake to watch. They have a lousy cavernous stadium where nobody can reach the fences and they have made an art of trading all their prospects away so they can rent a few superstars who will quickly downgrade their WAR and quickly get used to losing.

Now Manny can be warm while he banks his millions at least. His wife wanted to go to New York so she could shop. Manny wanted to wear pinstripes and strut for the most successful franchise in baseball history. Too bad! The Yankees for some reason were less than convinced that they should pony up ten years at $30 mil plus for a surly superstar who steps on first basemen and throws his bat at opposing fielders when they have offended him. Yes he's a great player. No, he wouldn't be popular with Yankee fans, who, even though they are abominably arrogant on occasion, appreciate and demand hustle on a baseball diamond. Watching Manny go into a home run trot on a flyball that hits off the fence and making it only to first base? Not a good idea in front of Yankee fans.

I kind of thought MM was going to the White Sox so he could teach Yoan Moncada how to perfect lackadaisically trotting down to first base on grounders. Yoan already has a good start on that. (The main return bauble in the Chris Sale trade for Chicago had an interesting year in 2018. He led the league in K's with 217 in only 149 games. One of the fastest players in the majors, he stole just 12 bases while getting caught 6 times. 17 homers, .235 average. Not exactly startling stats for the former number one prospect in baseball.)

I guess Manny has to be content with poisoning Fernando Tatis Jr. in San Diego, who is playing Manny's preferred position at shortstop.

Ah, here I am demanding sportsmanship and a sunny disposition from this multi-millionaire. How unfair of me. Manny Machado...you have awesome talent. You hit a ton, field a ton and have the best infield throwing arm I have seen since Cal Ripken. Start playing the glorious game of baseball with respect. Enjoy your money and good luck!

The other God-Kissed Super Free Agent we've all been waiting and wondering where he's going to sign is, of course, Bryce “Outlaw the Shift” Harper, who has also gotten surly on occasion. Especially when teams shift on him and force him to hit .249 trying to hit through, over and around their fielders. Of course, Bryce could hit .649 if he would learn to slash it to left instead of beating his head against a brick wall of defenders. But that would deny him the glorious feeling of hitting towering home runs 35 times a year and would also help his team win too many games, so why would he do that?

Like I once said to Joey Gallo of the Rangers (that is if Joey reads my blog I said it to him)... spend a week bunting down the third base line, dribbling ground balls into left field that turn into doubles and bombing the occasional oppo field tater against these shifty teams. After that one week opponents will go back to a conventional defense against Bryce because they will be losing baseball games. Then Bryce can go back to pulling the ball. Leave a burnt offering on the base of the Stan Musial (lifetime average .331) statue in St. Louis Bryce. Ask for guidance.

Bryce had a golden road all laid out for him that ended in Philadelphia. The Phillies have the most available cash in baseball since they dumped all their overpriced superstars of the 2000's (Ryan Howard, Rollins, Utley etc.) and replaced them with cheap young players. Their budget was only about 64 million last year so they could afford to buy a Harper, a Machado and a couple of pitchers all at once and actually try to win a pennant. But Philly was too close to Baltimore for Manny and Bryce seemed less than enthusiastic about staying in the NL East even though Philly was the only team that was willing to give him the fantastic salary he thinks he deserves. He wanted to play in L.A. for the Dodgers. That way he could go play slots in his home town of Las Vegas on off days.

But the Dodgers are also not interested in a ten year contract for a player who had only played 3 full seasons out of 7. (Even though I am criticizing Bryce for his fragility, his many injuries are actually because of something positive: unlike Machado, Harper always hustles on a baseball field. Because of that, he gets hurt frequently. But credit where credit is due...way to go Harper!) Harper is 26 and this was his best chance to get his $300+ million contract. Would he take a shorter deal in Dodgerland at a ridiculous salary and try this free agent thing in a couple of years after the Player's Association sues the owners for collusion?

Or maybe go with the Giants and be a hero on a losing team? SF is desperately trying to keep their fan base as they enter the twilight of the second division. That whole team got old together. Maybe they could get their fans to watch Harper while they're finishing 5^th for a few years.

The Phillies, however, had all but announced that they were going to sign Harper, especially after Manny popped the cork with San Diego. Bryce could hit a lot of homers in Philly. And the Phils went out and traded for a great shortstop in Jean Segura and the best catcher (offense...he's still below Molina of the Cards as a defensive player) in J.T. Realmuto. Also Andrew McCutcheon and closer Dave Robertson. They will be contenders in the East.

Then Harper's agent Scott Boras got real smart. After it seemed all but certain Philly would get Bryce at something like the 10+ years at $30+ million per, he went back and had flashy meetings with Dave Roberts of the dodgers and also the Giants to make it look like they were trying to steal Harper at the last minute. Next thing we know, there's Harper signing an unheard of contract: 13 years at $33 million per year with NO OPT OUTS. Biggest of all time. Makes Giancarlo Stanton's behemoth deal look like loose change. The no opt outs is the shocker. That means Philly will be paying Bryce when he's 36-39 that same $33 million whether or not he's productive or even able to get on the field.

And after all this, the players are moaning about how the owners are cheating them and colluding not to pay free agents.

Are the owners guilty of collusion in failing to bid up the salaries of all these free agents? No...not collusion. They are guilty instead of intelligence. Thus, the “lies and statistics” quote (from Mark Twain) in my blog-damned byline. Ownership has gone wonkish and Sabremetric to a revolutionary degree in their approach to buying talent. It is absolutely irrefutable that most players will perform best between the ages of about 24 to 32. After that they enter the long slow slide zone. (And sometimes not so long or slow!) Don't credit the owners with any kind of genius perceptive qualities...just look at Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Haley Ramirez, etc. etc. etc. All great players who have fallen into the Zombie Zone in their mid thirties. They signed lucrative long term contracts while they were still superstars but the last half of their contracts are Money for Nothin'. This trend has been rendered even more inevitable now that players have stopped loading up on steroids and other PEDs. (Watch out Mets...Robinson Cano? They took away his juice. And he's almost 37. But it's okay Robbie...you won't get tired because you never run out ground balls anyway.)

The players will tell you that these guys were underpaid in their productive youth and it's only proper to reward them for their past careers in long term high dollar contracts in their 30s. One problem with that theory, as the owners have finally realized: It's a good way to lose games and money.

The new paradigm is to underpay your superstars while they are in their prime and dump them when they get into their 30s. Replace them with teenage players and repeat. The teenagers won't have spent enough time in the minors to know how to play yet, (are you listening Yoan Moncada?) but they're cheap and they can learn on the job while the team is tanking so management can load up on high draft choices in prep for their next “window of opportunity”.

Manny and Bryce will eventually get the big money because they reached free agency when they were only 26. But all these guys in their 30s trying to get a long term deal at multi millions? Forget it. Statistics, you see. It just won't pay. Sorry Dallas Keuchel of Houston, Craig Kimbrel of Boston, Gio Gonzalez of Washington...you'll be taking a one year deal at low rate like Moose Moustakas had to do the last two years.

But this is not some Armageddon-ish sinister debacle of collusion like the players are claiming. Nobody should be able to FORCE owners to buy free agents at exorbitant rates. Especially when all the stats say these players aren't going to produce in the last half of such contracts. Hey...David Ortiz, one of the best “old” players of the last couple of decades, signed a long series of one-year contracts with the Red Sox after he entered the danger zone of his mid- thirties. Then he went out and exceeded all expectations and played MVP ball.

Free agents! What the hell do you have the right to complain about when you can “only” get a $10 million dollar one year contract? You don't think you and your family can survive on that 10 mil for the rest of your lives? Gentlemen...I feel really bad for you if you can't adapt to that shocking Reality.

Meanwhile, teams are still offering very fair contracts to their free agent eligible stars just to stay with their home town teams. Nolan Arenado just got $280 mil for 8 years from the Rockies. The Nationals offered Harper 300 mil for 10 years but got turned down. The Red Sox are going to try to retain Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts with extensions. This is not collusion!

However: right now it benefits a team that's not going to win anyway to go ahead and finish last for a few years so they can rake in the best draft choices. Houston pulled this off to perfection earlier this decade. To discourage this, baseball should fix the draft system and go to something like the NBA had with a weighted lottery so teams would at least try to win games. Otherwise it becomes only too obvious what tankers are up to.

Enough of that. Let's proceed to the other Shibboleth of the off season. How the Hell do we speed this freaking game up?

Well...it's not a pitch clock, that's for damn sure! They've been testing it out in the minors and whole games are going by with nobody getting within 5 seconds of an infraction on a twenty second pitch clock. They figure the rule will only affect about ten of the most “deliberate” pitchers if they enforce it at all. My suggestions:

1/just tell the umpires to keep the batters in the box except for when they take a close one up and in or something and have to dust themselves off.

2/start the pitch clock sooner.

3/Limit visits to the mound.

4/limit warmup pitches between innings and from relievers (what have they been doing out there in the bullpen if not warming up?)

5/realize that if every pitcher in the world were like Bob Gibson (“Get your ass in the box cause I'm throwing it NOW, SUCKER!”) or Grover Alexander (“I only take 4 warmup pitches but I pitched 18 innings in the last three days anyway so I think I'm ready.”) or Cy Young (“Let's see...749 complete games...that's more than almost any other starter has had in APPEARANCES...I guess I've done MY part.”) we wouldn't be having this conversation. So stop walking around the mound and throw the damn ball.

Another thing not to do is this screw loose idea of mandating that each pitcher throw to at least 3 batters before you can relieve him. Unless the inning ends before three batters I guess, or else you couldn't pinch hit for him (NL only) in the next offensive half inning? There would also be a lot of fake injuries so they could get permission to take the guy out instead of making him face a tough batter.

Teams and managers have gone crazy with matchups. The penalty for this specialization is a roster with 13 pitchers, most of whom throw to only one or two batters before they are replaced. In extra inning games they still run out of pitchers and have to let an infielder come in and throw eephus balls. I agree that this is ridiculous.

As I've said before, what's coming is expanding the roster to 26 but limiting the staff to 12 or 13. That's so they'll use the 26^th man to be a bench hitter/fielder. Of course, this won't stop the other trend… three way pitcher/hitter/fielders to give versatility to the roster. A team full of Ohtanis if you will. This ain't a bad idea. It'll be like school ball still is...the best players pitch and hit and field another position or two when they aren't on the mound. What's not to like?

More ideas:

6/remove two 30 second commercials from each half inning...add two extra ones back during the seventh inning stretch. That's fifteen minutes you've shortened the game by. The networks aren't going to lose that commercial time anyway...they'll just use it on their next reality show that gets twice the ratings of a stodgy old ball game (at least in the regular season) anyway. They can still run spots to their limit during pitching changes and (PLEASE!) during replay checks.

press time note: the major leagues are looking into starting innings on half the TV screen while commercials run on the other half. What a brave stand for the sanctity of the game THAT is!*

7/shorten the damn replay checks! Just have the guy in New York make the call if he sees an egregious mistake. Have him wired up to the head ump and call it and get on with the game. Managers can still call for a replay but they won't have to if the video ump has the authority to fix the call.

8/don't be too precious about “preserving the fabric of the game”. Baseball has instituted revolutionary “fixes” before and sailed merrily along. Moving the mound back from 45 feet to 60 feet 1 inch helped the game in 1894...and that's a radical change that became necessary when Amos Rusie started throwing 98 mile an hour fastballs.

We've survived the infield fly rule, the balk rule, the designated hitter and does anybody remember when you were allowed to hit a baserunner in the ass with a thrown ball to record an out? This was the game in the nineteenth century, aka, “The Good Old Days”.

What I'm leading up to is this: if nothing else works consider a 7 inning game. (Yes, I understand that the gnashing sound I hear is your teeth grinding on my neck) But what would actually happen if all games were 7 innings?

Most games today take 3 hours, give or take. The first 6 innings take 2 hours and the last 3 innings take another hour with all the relief pitchers and stra-tee-gery. So you could expect most games to take about 2:15 to 2:30. Knock down the commercials and replays and make it 2 hours. Take the kids home and get 'em to bed by 10.

But, you'd also have quicker games because you'd have many more complete games pitched by your starters. Nowadays most managers want to get their starters out of there before the lineup turns over 3 times, and that is a lot closer to 6 or 7 innings. You'd definitely use less pitchers in a seven inning contest. Stats? The game stats would be different because most hitters wouldn't get up to bat 5 times a game. Shutouts would be forever changed but they're almost extinct anyway. Season stats would be just as meaningful because they'd still be cumulative, albeit based on fewer plate appearances in a season.

Your players would be less fatigued. Also, you could keep the nine inning games in the playoffs if you insisted. And it would be easier to play the inevitable rain out make up double headers. And 7 inning games are still the norm in many spring training, school and young player leagues. It's just not that radical a change.

All in all the seven inning game would cure the curse of the late finish (does anybody really like staying up past midnight to see the end of a baseball game?) and let the youth of America watch games through to the end, whether live or televised.

Gnash on Dear Readers, Gnash on…

Ok, enough kvetching...let's talk about the season ahead.

The Boston Red Sox ended the season on a very high note by demonstrating how much team spirit can affect the outcome of the games. I guess we knew this from watching the Yankees of the Derek Jeter/Paul O'Neil/Jorge Posada/Andy Pettite/Mariano Rivera era. Or the “We Are Family” Pirates of '79. Even though sometimes a team full of quarreling churls can succeed...the Oakland Athletics of the '70s for example.

But the 2018 Red Sox, just like the Houston Astros of 2017 who preceded them into team Valhalla, showed what can happen when there's a lot of love and support and smiling superstars (Mookie, Jose Altuve etc).

The Sox won the Series in the third game when Nathan Eovaldi pitched 7 extra innings after pitching twice already in the first two games. He lost the game on a homer by Max “Yard Gnome” Muncy. You'd think that would have broken the spirit of the Sox, but instead they rallied around their heroic pitcher and hugged themselves into a firm conviction that they could win. And they did. The Dodgers were left waiting for Manny Machado to do something besides not run out extra base hits. Game Set Match.

All the interesting action this year should be in the National League. Boston, New York and Houston are probably locks for the AL Playoffs.

In the AL East, Boston didn't add much, but they retained Eovaldi and WS MVP Steve Pearce. They're letting closer Kimbrel walk but after watching him pour gas on the fire in the Playoffs, that's probably a wise decision. They for sure aren't going to give Craig the 6 year multi-million contract he's stubbornly demanding, so their bullpen might be weakened. The Sox also lost “Fighting Joe” Kelly to the Dodgers. (That hurts because Kelly was inconsistent but gutsy. He gave his best for the Sox and he beat up Yankee rookies who dared to complain about fastballs aimed at their backsides).

New York is very scary looking again. They kept everybody they wanted and beefed up an already stuffed bullpen. (Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Chad Green, Kahnle, Bettances...and more!) The Yankees probably have the best bullpen ever assembled. Really….there's about six closers on that roster! Their starters are not as good as the Sox have, but that's not where games are won in the 21^st century. They did add leftie James Paxton from Seattle. He only threw a no-hitter last year. (His last three pitches were strikes to Josh Donaldson...98mph, 100mph, 99mph. Over and Out.)

If their young players like Voit, Andujar, Torres and Gary Sanchez can maintain, and they play Aaron Hicks more than Brett Gardner in center, the Yankees might be the first team in history to have nine players in their batting order hit at least 20 homers this season. That was once unimaginable. Frank Cashman has retired the trophy for best general manager. He added Troy Tulowitzki to play short until Didi Gregorius heals. (for a one year contract at the league minimum! Brilliant move!) Also DJ LeMahieu (a former batting champion!) from Colorado to back up the infield.

About the only problems the Yankees have are what to do with the long term contract of totally unproductive Jacobi Ellsbury and how to survive catcher Gary Sanchez's many Dr. Stoneglove adventures behind the plate trying to corral breaking pitches from a staff of breaking ball specialists.

The Red Sox may have to win 118 games to finish first in the East this year. Maybe Aaron Judge will play “New York, New York” too loud on his boom box again and inspire them.

The Houston Astros should cruise in the AL West. None of the other western teams have beefed up to any degree and Seattle has cashed in their chips for a rebuild.

The Angels are continuing to try to win with older players and it's not working. Mike Trout will soon vacate the team with only one playoff appearance to show for his whole career thus far.

Oakland stands pat as usual...almost time to trade all your stars Mr. Moneyball!

Texas might surprise us. They have some good everyday players, even with Beltre retiring. If those aging pitchers come through for them they could finish...third?

Cleveland still has the advantage in the AL Central, but their margin is much thinner after losing half their team to free agency and financially necessary trades. Bradley, Encarnacion, catcher Yan Gomes and Josh Donaldson are gone from the lineup and they lost a bunch of their pitching too. (Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, Josh Tomlin.) There was talk that Corey Kluber and/or Carlos Carrasco were on the block. Thus die all small market teams. Cleveland is leaning very heavily on Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and their starters to keep them upright, but there is no doubt they are coming back to earth. And Lindor is starting the year hurt.

Minnesota is nipping at the Cleveland heals. They've signed about four DH types though, (Sano, Cruz, Logan Morrison) so they may beach themselves.

The White Sox are still a year away from really competing because their young pitching is not quite ready. They have young hitters though. Watch out for Eloy Jimenez...he's 6'4”, 220 lbs. And powerful. He might be a great one.

Kansas City will play small ball and be feisty, but not feisty enough to win anything.

Detroit is going to have a brutal season.

Why am I excited about the NL? Because we have a 4 team race in the East, a 3 team race in the Central, and a 1 team wipeout in the West. (Well, two out of three ain't bad!)

Let's not even go into the West. The Dodgers are fat and happy. They even almost scored Harper and thus totally destroy any possible hint of drama. The Arizona Diamondbacks lost their two best hitters in Goldschmidt (to the Cardinals) and Pollack (to the Dodgers!)and their Number Two starter in Patrick Corbin (to the Nationals!). So play Taps for them. They not only lost their stars, but they have to watch them play for the best teams in the league!

If you think Machado to the Padres is going to worry the Dodgers think again. The Padres will be better but there's still this little matter called pitching.

Colorado is celebrating signing an extension with Nolan Arenado...and good for him staying loyal faithful and true to his original team (at the bargain price of more than 32 million + a year for 8 years!) Won't matter….they coughed up furballs against the Brewers in the Playoffs and don't have enough to challenge Los Angeles.

San Francisco? They could turn back time and get a young Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda plus Juan Marichal and still not win. Too many old, hurt players on their team. I hope they don't trade Bumgarner though...there has to be somebody there that the fans like to watch.

The NL Central will be a fur fight for a bunch of teams that really compete with each other every year. The Cubs have been on top in this division but the Brewers took them down last year. Then the Brew Crew went out and did...NOTHING! They needed starters but got nobody! Stupid Brewers! Now is the time to press! You can win the pennant! Stupid Brewers!

The Cubs got body slammed when they spent all their money on Yu Darvish (hurt arm) and got Bryant hurt (shoulder). Plus they're still being bled dry by the Jason Heyward contract. (Didn't that guy used to hit?) That $78 million they gave Heyward is what it cost Chicago to break the curse...it was no hit good field Heyward who got the team into the weight room for that little pep talk that had them come out swinging in the Series 7^th game win over the Indians. So the Cubs did nothing this winter to improve. They're just hoping Darvish can pitch this year and Bryant's shoulder heals. And they hope that Javier Baez's break out season was a sign of things to come. He carried them for long stretches last year.

The third team in the mix is the strangely inconsistent St. Louis Cardinals. But this year, I think the addition of Paul Goldschmidt, a steady, quiet leader, will mix well and get Marcell Ozuna better pitches to hit. The pitching is deep and effective as long as Yadier Molina is calling the games. Carpenter had an awesome hot streak in mid-year and should make a smooth transition to third base to make room for Goldy. I like the Cards in the division this year.

The Cincinnati Reds are not going to win yet, but they are improving. After watching attendance drop for the last four or five years, they suddenly realized that they need some players that people want to watch and traded for Puig and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers. This allowed them to dump the remnants of Homer Bailey (Pride of La Grange Texas!) and they shipped off Sliding Billy Hamilton as well. Nobody could ever teach Billy how to work a base on balls (OBP .299!) or hit grounders that he could run out for base hits. What a waste of world class speed. Anyway, I think it would be great to see the Reds really compete again. Hope they do.

Pirates likewise, but that owner is not in it to win it. What does he do with all the penalty cash he collects from the teams that go over the salary cap? (oh, sorry, we all know that baseball doesn't have a salary cap! Heavens! The very thought!) Anyway, it's for sure that he's not spending it on players.

We have saved the best for last. The truly interesting division in baseball this year could possibly be the NL East.

4 teams are actually competing, and it's difficult to tell who's favored!

Dismiss Miami. They are deep in Tanksville and will lose 110 games or so this season. But Atlanta won it last year and they are at least as good as they were in 2018 with genuine hopes for improvement from some of their young pitchers. The Phillies signed Harper and a few more studs and look a whole lot stronger. The Nationals lost Harper but gained another Ace pitcher in Corbin and still have Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg. And even the New York Mets have suddenly come to life and decided to try to win something.

The Mets made some splashy moves in getting Jed Lowrie from Oakland and Edwin “Sugar” Diaz (57 saves) from Seattle. And of course the splashiest move was getting Robbie Cano from Seattle. But Robbie is going to be 37 and the rest of their offensive core...Lowrie, Frazier and Cespedes... are also well into their thirties and have a history of injuries. So once again the Mets fans are pointing at a cardboard house and seeing a castle. Last year the Metskies featured an awesome starting rotation and had bad defense and terrible offense to back it up. This year they've gone out and got some “names” but these names are usually those you see on the DL. They need Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto to step up and be stars. And if their starters DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and Metz can get through a year without spraining a lat the Mets might do something. I have them pegged for fourth.

Down in Atlanta everything is peachy. Last year they finally went back to the playoffs and if their pitching improves they could go even further. But I just don't see this staff standing up alongside the Nationals, the Mets or even the Phillies. The Braves have some talent...like Touki Toussaint...but are unproven. Plus they play in home run heaven down there in Delta town. The offense is pretty strong if Markakis, Albeis and Inciarte can come close to last year's production and Acuna and Freeman stay healthy. But one thing's for sure...the Braves are coming. They have an awesome farm system with arms forever (righties Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson and Mike Soroka) and more team speed and good position players galore. This year? Drop back a little to third.

I've already talked about the Phillies and I must say it's about time they were relevant again. I'm concerned that their manager, Gabe Kapler, is a little too wonkish for his own good. He overuses the bullpen and favors matchups over all reason. We will see how he handles the team now that Harper is the centerpiece. Last year the Phillies had just terrible defense. Now they've got a better shortstop in Jean Segura and especially the best catcher available in J.T. Realmuto. Harper is an upgrade in right or center, wherever they put him, and they finally get Rhys Hoskins out of left and back to his natural position of first base. Should help. The pitching is not overpowering, but they signed Nola to a long term and Arrieta is good and possibly great if he can find his mojo again like Verlander did a couple of years ago. A solid second place team.

And now the Nationals. Wouldn't it be ironic if the Nationals got rid of Harper and finally won the pennant and went to the World Series? They have the talent to do that. Except for perhaps, the Dodgers, the Nats are the deepest club in the National League. The rotation is stronger than the Dodgers or anybody else in the league with Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin and Anibel Sanchez. The bullpen has Sean Doolittle, Matt Grace, Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough.

They picked up Brian Dozier to play second. He was hurt last year but at 32 shouldn't be done. When he's on he's a dangerous hitter and a Yard Dog competitor. The infield also has Anthony Rendon back at third as well as shortstop Trea Turner, who played every game last year and stole a lot of bases. The big tick up comes in the outfield, where phenom Victor Robles adds his speed and defense to the lineup in center and Juan Soto is available for the full season. Juan had an OPS of .923 last year with 22 dingers in a short season. He looked really good. Bryce who? First place.

Hope you enjoyed the rap. I'll be back later…

Marco