Marco's Baseball blog-O-Roonie 2019: THE GYPSY WILL SEE YOU NOW

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2019: THE GYPSY WILL SEE YOU NOW

Happy Opening Day! Just in case you were thinking of sitting this season out and coming back on line when the Playoffs start, here's what's going to happen:

AL EAST:

1/Red Sox

2/Yankees

3/Rays

4/Blue Jays

5/Orioles

The Red Sox and the Yankees will be entertaining us with their latest death struggle. All “Bird” teams will be plucked frequently. The Rays will pitch great, play defense great, run great and not draw a lick of a crowd. No one will ever know how good they are. They will be about two players short of true contention as usual.

Most people figure the Yanks will take the division, but I have to pick the Sox. My evaluation and justifications:

PITCHING: The Yankees bullpen is so much better than the Boston pen that's its ridiculous. You know the names...Chapman, Britten, Ottavino and more. Even with Betances hurt they have five guys better than ANYONE in the Boston pen.

Dave Dombrowski (Boston GM) is famous for under-stocking his bullpens. He just can't bring himself to spend money on relievers. This year he let his closer, Craig Kimbrel, leave as a free agent. Craig was hallucinating that he was worth a 5 year $100 mil plus contract and he wasn't. That's okay. But Joe Kelly, the second best arm out there, went to L.A. No replacement. Then the knuckle ball pitcher Steven Wright, who at least can eat up innings with that no-stress knucksie, got busted for impurities in the blood. (Dumbshit! Now your name must forever remain un-bold typefaced!!) Still, no replacement. The only thing the Red Sox say is that leftie Tyler Thornburg should be back. (He's been hurt for, like, two years). They don't even have another leftie with any kind of name recognition. Brian Johnson? Bobby Pointer?

I get that the Sox are saving money to give to Mookie Betts. They gave a big extension to Chris Sale. They re-signed their World Series heroes Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce. They want to keep Xander Bogaerts at short. So they won't go over the luxury tax penalty threshold this year.

But this year the crown is there for the taking. That thriftiness may cost them another world title.

The good news is the Red Sox' rotation. Chris Sale is re-signed and extended and his arm should be fresh (for the first 5 months anyway). David Price rediscovered the cut on his cutter messing around in the bullpen during the World Series. If he keeps it cutting it's a whole new problem for hitters. Rick Porcello bends but never seems to break. A great Number 3. Nathan Eovaldi...you remember his moment of epic gutsiness and tenacity in WS Game 3. That has to help his confidence. Everybody on the team knows that his stuff is simply the best. If his arm hangs on he could dominate as a starter or a multi-inning reliever if they need him more in the pen. Number 5 is Eduardo Rodriguez...another leftie with great stuff who has yet to get it all together. What if he finally figures it out? A hell of a Number 5, that's what.

Now look at the Yankee's starters. Severino, the presumed Numero Uno, is hurt. So is C.C. Sabathia. That leaves them with Masahiro Tanaka as the Ace to start the season with. He gave up 27 homers last year. James Paxton, over from Seattle, has to be good, and despite throwing a no-hitter last year, he really isn't. He also gives up a lot of homers and had the third highest hard hit rate in baseball, right behind Matt Moore and Homer Bailey. J.A.Happ is their best bet, but he was slotted for Number 4. He's a leftie who should do well at the stadium but may not be your first choice to pitch a big game at Fenway.

So going into the season they have to fill two spots. Domingo German is picked for one. His ERA last year was 5.57. They have some good prospects coming up, but it's a lot to ask for rookies to carry that load.

Anyway, I think the Boston starters are close to being as far above the New Yorker rotation as the Yank bullpen is above the Bosox' pitiful bullpen. Would you rather have starters dominating the first six innings or the relievers dominating the last 3 innings? Yeah, me too.

CATCHING: Another problem for the Pinstripers. They play Gary Sanchez even though he is a real boxer trying to catch pitches in the dirt. His defensive flaws are supposed to be forgiven because of his big bat, but he hit .186 last year. (He hit 18 homers in an injury shortened season. But everybody on the Yankees hits homers.)

Baseball tradition says that a catcher's prime value to the team is defense and handling pitchers. That's why you see so many weak hitting catchers still starting for so many teams. They don't care if their catcher hits or not, they need him to be a defender who can give a staff confidence first-est and most-est. If you do get lucky and find a catcher like Yogi Berra or Roy Campanella who can contribute with the bat as well...you have a 3-time MVP award winner.

The Red Sox catchers are Christian Vasquez (.207/.540 ops) and Sandy Leon (.177/.511 ops). How on earth can they keep jobs with those kind of stats? (8 homers between them so don't think it's power hitting!) It's because they are exceptional receivers and the pitching staff absolutely loves them. Porcello calls Sandy Leon “the best catcher I've ever thrown to” and the “heartbeat” of the pitching staff. Vasquez is great at blocking balls and throwing out runners (something that in all fairness, Gary Sanchez is exceptional at as well).

These two catchers are so good that the Sox can't find a spot for Blake Swihart even though he looks like a consistent .300 hitter from the left side who also runs well and can play outfield or first base.

I see catching as a big advantage for the Bostonians.

Just watch the body language of a Yankee pitcher next time Sanchez Oles one of his sliders.

Defense: The Sox have the best defensive outfield in baseball.

The Yankees have Aaron Judge (pretty good) in right, Giancarlo (slow but with a good arm) in left and Brett Gardner (old but game) in center until Aaron Hicks (hurt) gets back. They had to trade for a backup outfielder.

In the infield the Yankees have a hurt shortstop in Didi Gregorius, who was also the team leader and locker room clown. They made a gutsy pickup in Troy Tulowitzki to fill in at short, but after all those leg surgeries Troy has lost a lot of range. (By the way, I'm rooting for Troy to be Comeback Player of the Year...the baseball Gods owe him a year like that after all that he has had to endure). The third baseman Andujar is really bad. Gleyber Torres is pretty good at second and could move to short if Troy gets hurt again. Then they could play Gold Glover D.J.LeMahieu at second. First base is a platoon amongst Voit (big bopper late last season), Greg Bird (didn't hit last year, looked good in Spring Training), and occasionally LeMahieu.

Except for perhaps the latter, they're all merely adequate defenders at first.

The Sox have Devers at third who is better than Andujar but still sloppy. Bogaerts is at short...a middle of the pack type defensive shortstop but top five offensively. If Pedroia was 100% you'd have a Gold Glove quality second baseman but Pedey starts the year on the injured list. Brock and Nunez are valuable backups but no Robby Alomars. Moreland and Steve Pearce platoon at first...Moreland is very good.

Let's be generous and call it a push in the infield but a huge advantage for the Sox at catching and in the outfield defensively speaking.

OFFENSE: The Yankees have the power. They'll probably break the homer record this year. But since power is the main thing people see, it gives the illusion that the Yankees are way stronger than the Sox. But the Yankees also don't have anybody who hit .300 last year except Luke Voit (.333 in 143 at bats). Their first five look like this: Gardner (.236/12 home runs/.690 ops) Judge (.278/27/.919 112 games)

Stanton (.266/38/.852) Sanchez (.186/18/.697 89 games) Bird/Voit (.199/11/.672 82 games)/ (.333/14/1.085 39 games)

The Red Sox first five? Benintendi (.290/21/ops .830), Betts (.346/32/ops 1.079), Devers (.240/21/.731), Martinez (.330/43/1.031), and Bogaerts (.288/23/.883)

The Boston lineup is close to New York in power and quite superior in hitting. The Sox as a team had a better on base percentage and OPS than the Yanks and led in steals as well.

CONCLUSION: With injuries as a major variable, all things considered I think the Red Sox are a superior team to the Yankees. That's why I'm picking them to finish first in the East.

AL CENTRAL:

1/Indians

2/Twins

3/White Sox

4/Royals

5/Tigers

Cleveland is the soundest of five severely flawed teams in the Central. That's because the Cleaver's starting rotation is the one “A” group in the division.

The Ohio Politically Incorrects spent the winter bleeding players with no money-sponge to staunch the wounds. It's very sad because they came so close to beating the Cubs in '16 and have made the playoffs several years in a row. But small market teams are doomed to losing all their good players sooner or later. Frankie Lindor is hurt for the early season and Jose Ramirez has also been limping. The pitching has to be awfully good if those guys can't play.

The Hanley Ramirez DH pickup was desperate but could be a season saver if he hits.

The Twinks have a few good players but not enough pitchers. They are not coordinated to peak as a team with Joe Mauer now retired and Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano still not dependable.

The Chicago Southsiders are getting a potential superstar in Eloy Jimenez but their young pitchers are still at least a year away from producing at a Playoff-competitive level.

At least they tried to get Machado or Harper but wound up with only Machado's uncle or something.

The Royals have speed in their lineup and they may win some with the running game, but they only won 58 games last year and they lost catcher Sal Perez for the season. Again...not enough pitching and no money to go get it.

The Tigres lost their Number One starter Michael Fulmer to TJ surgery. Miguel Cabrera is 35 and still can hit .300, but good fastballs get passed him now and the shadows are lengthening. Salute him...he's one of the great hitters of all time.

AL WEST:

1/Astros

2/A's

3/Angels

4/Mariners

5/Rangers

The surest of sure things...the 'Stros will win the West. I know they lost pitching but they still have Verlander and Cole one-two and Brad Peacock (13 K's per 9 innings) and Colin McHugh (almost 12 K's per 9) have been pretty good starters in past years. They picked up Wade Miley to add a leftie to the rotation and he was pretty ok for the Brewers last year. For backup they have Josh James (a Bob Gibson lookalike who throws true Gas!) and Number One minor league pitching prospect Forest Whitley.

The 'Stros had an effective offense last year even with Altuve and Correa hurting. They've added a .300 leftie hitter in Michael Brantley and if little Jose and Carlos can stay limber they will be scary once again.

I'll tell you right now, it's Houston or New York or Boston in the Series for the AL.

Oakland's big boppers will probably get them another Wild Card.

The Angels and Mike Trout will have to wait for a new generation of young players to get them back to the Playoffs. Pujols, Upton, Calhoun, Cozart and Lucroy are all declining. Pitching is only average.

Seattle has chucked it in for a rebuild. Will the fans still come out during it?

The Rangers have fallen into the pit. If they win 60 games I'll be surprised.

AL MVP: Alex Bregman (will lead in hits and runs scored and maybe doubles as well)

AL CY YOUNG: Nathan Eovaldi (a sentimental pick)

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (if he diets)

AL BATTING CHAMP: Andrew Benintendi (leads off in front of Mookie)

AL HOME RUN CHAMP: Aaron Judge (bombs away Dream Baby!)

AL RBI CHAMP: J.D. Martinez

AL STEALS: Billy Hamilton

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

NL WEST:

1/Dodgers

2/Rockies

3/Diamondbacks

4/Padres

5/Giants

This is the only easy division winner in the NL to pick. The Angelinos have maintained while all the others have fallen far. Only the Rockies may seriously contend.

The Dodgers for some reason are pinching pennies these days. They passed on Harper, who was practically begging to go to their team (as long as they came up with $300 million of course!) They picked up A.J. Pollack from Arizona to play center field. Kershaw is hurt again and is no longer the Bomb. What a great career he's had. I hope he still has something left. The Dodgers have a seemingly endless supply of pitchers lined up so don't worry about them too much.

The core of the Rockies' offense ...Arenado, Story and Blackmon...is still there and they've added Daniel Murphy, who should hit well in the Coors doubles machine. They need Ian Desmond and David Dahl to help out more.

Starters German Marquez and Kyle Freeland pitched well in Coors last year...a rare phenomenon for Colorado pitchers. But the staff still lacks depth and I thought the Rocks looked completely befuddled against the Brewers in the Playoffs last year. They've got to show up in the clutch.

The Diamondhumps are another sad tale of a middling team that has spent all their money on big contracts and couldn't win the Big One. When Paul Goldschmidt went to St. Louis and signed a long term you could feel them wince all the way from Phoenix.

Things are looking up for the Padrinos. Manny Machado opted to stay warm and unobsequious in San Diego rather than go to a pennant contender. San Diego MAY be on the way to competing soon, though. They seem to have a bunch of good young arms in the minors and now have an offensive and defensive core of everydays in Machado, Hosmer, and rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. to go with Will Myers. At least I don't think they'll finish last this year because of…

San Francisco. Oh Boy, does it hurt to say this. The Giants look like a last place club. Their core is too old. Period.

“Goodbye Old Paint, I'm a leavin' Cheyenne.” It was a good run. See you on the rebound.

NL CENTRAL:

1/Cardinals

2/Cubs

3/Brewers

4/Pirates

5/Reds

This should be a battle all year to win the division. The Cubs or the Brewers are the popular choice, but the Brewers did nothing to help themselves in the off season and neither did the Cubs. The Cardinals tapped into the Loyal Cardinal Fan Money Machine and came up with Goldschmidt to bat cleanup. The help he'll bring to Ozuna, Carpenter, DeJong and the rest of the St. Louis lineup should be a multiplier effect.

They also got Andrew Miller to compliment Jordan Hicks, John Brebbia and Dakota Hudson in the bullpen. Now, if Carlos Martinez can get healthy and Wainwright and Wacha produce…???

The Cubbies won 95 games last year but looked lost and confused at the end of the season when Milwaukee sent an endless parade of relievers out to torment them. The Cubs are strapped for cash because they owe too much to non-producers like Yu Darvish and Justin Heyward. When your big off season pickup is Daniel Descalso (who is actually a great little scrappy player) you know you're in trouble. But the Cubs still have the solidest rotation in the division. But Hamels, Lester et all are getting along now. They really, really need Darvish to come through.

The Bad Bad Brewers were standing pat this winter, watching the rest of the league play catch-up. They assume Yelich and Co. are going to have another red letter season. I think that's a great big Maybe. And despite their insane bullpen work last year, bullpens have a way of folding up overnight when they get too much use. And I didn't like the way Craig Counsell managed the team. And you all know what I think of Ryan (never again Bold Faced) Braun.

I could live to eat these words but I see a fall coming. Fortune Favors the Bold. Those Who Stand Pat Will Soon Lie Flat.

I'm picking the Pirates to finish ahead of the Reds for after thought awards in the Central not because they're good, but because they at least have pitchers that can help them stay in games. Taillon, Archer, Williams, Musgrove and Keller are all pretty darn good as starters and Taillon is a Cy Young threat. Vasquez, Tela and Rodriguez are all stellar in the pen.

As far as the offense goes, Francisco Cervelli...that's right, the catcher...THAT Cervelli...bats cleanup. And their big off season pick up was Lonnie Chisenhall. That's probably all you need to know. I will admit that the outfield of Corey Dickensen, Starling Marte (whoops! No bold face for you either, Cheater!) and Greg Polanco (if he recovers fully from shoulder surgery) is one of the best in the League.

And oh how I wish that I could tell you that Cincinnati is back. But if wishes were Grandmas we'd all have cookies and hot chocolate.

I look forward to the first time Madison Bumgarner of the Giants faces new Cincy outfielder Yasiel Puig. It was a fight almost every time those two faced off when Puig was a Dodger. Once Bumgarner gets a load of Yasiel tossing bats in that Red uniform... Aye! Toro!

NL EAST:

1/Nationals

2/Braves

3/Phillies

4/Mets

5/Marlins

Should be the most interesting division in baseball. Any of the top four could win. Atlanta won it last year, but the Nationals were closing fast and have improved. The Mets made myriad moves and want to play. And the Phillies got shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder and former Pirate icon Andrew McCutcheon and top catcher J.T.Realmuto. Oh yeah...and some guy named Harper. Still, the only sure thing in this division is the Marlins losing 110 games.

I know I'm guessing but I like four things about the Nationals. First, they have great starters 1-3 in Scherzer, Strasburg and new leftie Patrick Corbin. Second, they have two young outfielders, Juan Soto and Victor Robles, who should be fixtures for years. Third they got two plus catchers to handle their pitching staff...Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki. Good catching is such a necessity for a team and catcher was the Nat's weakest position.

And fourth, they lost Bryce Harper. That's right, they LOST HIM. Everybody now looks at the Nats like “It's over Dog! Your Star is gone and you never won the Big One!”

I think that may screw their courage to the sticking place so to speak and the Nats may come barking back. They still have Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Ryan Zimmerman (and picked up gamer Brian Dozier to replace Danny Murphy at second base) to augment those new kids and the catchers.

What does Redemption smell like? Doggie Poots, maybe?

Atlanta caught the rest of the National League with their pants down last year. This year teams will be readier for them. But they have great young players with more young pitchers on the way, an excited fan base and plenty of money to add help when they need it.

They missed out on J.T.Realmuto but picked up Brian McCann to help Tyler Flowers catch and Josh Donaldson to see if he can rekindle that MVP flame at third base. If Josh does, and if Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr. stay healthy, The Bravos will be dangerous. If Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte produce like they did last year Atlanta could smoke the East.

Pitching is iffier, but the Braves have 3 of the top 50 prospects in baseball farmed out: Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson and Mike Soroka...all big, right handed studs and potential Number 1's or 2's who are ready to move up. They also have Haitian Touki Toussaint, who made the rotation this year and is a very interesting young pitcher.

The Atlanta Braves are going to be contenders now and in the foreseeable future.

So will the Phillies be if they can add some pitchers to their now formidable everyday lineup. I had the Phillies finishing second last year but they quit early and slumped to third as the Nationals punished them down the stretch.

There was a lot of sloth and mirth and video games in the Phillie locker room last year as the youngsters enjoyed life and phoned in a pennant race. Where was manager Gabe Kapler while all this crap was going on? Somebody needed to kick some ass. Maybe the addition of Andrew McCutcheon, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper and especially catcher J.T.Realmuto will change that culture. These are all pros who have never won and they know how hard you have to work to compete in the majors. As far as I'm concerned, the manager and his coaches should be on notice.

I have the Phils third because of that and the lack of a solid 1 through 5 starting rotation. After Nola there are a lot of questions. Can Jake Arrieta get some of his mojo back? Can I believe in Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez? I really don't know. I think J.T. is going to help a whole lot behind the plate.

I hear you Mets fans screaming at me. “You're picking us Fourth!! You're daft you Bum, your Mother squeezed your head!!”

My reply: You poor deluded fools. Don't you know that you are rooting for a team of thoracic syndromes waiting to happen? Right now, you have the best rotation in the division with the possible exception of Washington. But when's the last time the top four have all pitched a full season before last year? Like...never! DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and Matz (Matz and Thor pitched 154 innings each last year) have all gone down with various horrors over the last four years. But you Mets fans probably have convinced yourselves that “This is the year, Baby”. You also think that Robbie Cano is Jesus even though he's 36 and newly steroid-denied. And when Yoanis Cespedes (33) comes back from a permanent hamstring pull you'll ride with the Valkyries into Valhalla.

I have learned not to hold my breath waiting for the Mets. They'll have to prove it to me.

Let's not waste any more time discussing the Florida Marlins. Happy Draft Choices, Derek Jeter.

NL MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr. (the young Henry Aaron?)

NL CY YOUNG: Max Scherzer (He'll outlast DeGrom)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Victor Robles (speed and defense)

NL BATTING CHAMP: Freddie Freeman

NL HR CHAMP: Rhys Hoskins (Phillies...the lineup favors him, batting after Bryce)

NL RBI CHAMP: Rhys Hoskins (ditto)

NL STEALS: Trea Turner (won it last year and has studied the pitchers now)

THE GYPSY SPEAKS!:

AL Division Winners: Boston, Cleveland, Houston

NL Division Winners: Washington, St. Louis, Los Angeles

AL Wild Cards: New York, Oakland

NL Wild Cards: Atlanta, Chicago

ALL Pennant: New York over Oakland, Boston over New York, Houston over Cleveland, Houston over Boston.

NL Pennant: Chicago over Atlanta, Washington over Chicago,

Los Angeles over St. Louis, Washington over Los Angeles

World Series: Houston over Washington.

You Fellows have a Splendid Season, Now, Ya hear me? Here's a story to inspire and sustain you as you peruse your box scores…

Babe Ruth was known for living large off of the baseball diamond and enjoyed many late night activities. His roommate, Ping Bodie has been attributed as saying, “I don’t room with Ruth, I room with his suitcase."

"Yankee teammate Bob Meusel was fond of telling a story about the night he shared a hotel suite with Babe. The Bambino made love to one woman after another, contemplatively smoking a cigar after each dalliance. In the morning, Meusel asked Babe how many girls he had been with the previous night. Ruth glanced at the ashtray, and so did Meusel. There were seven butts in the tray. “Count the cigars,” said Babe.