Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2018: ALPHA-STARS AND MVPS

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: ALPHA-STARS AND MVPS

I don't know if you're like me, but I get kind of excited when young stars make a great early impression coming into the majors. Guys like Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto and Alex Bregman.

Shohei is just a remarkable cat. I never would have thought this young Japanese kid could say no to the big money and come over to the States at a still young age and just dominate the way he has. He's a very strong candidate for Rookie of the year in the AL, even having missed so much time with injuries and enforced rest days. His offensive stats are as good as Mike Trout's were for the first 300 plate appearances of his career. All-field power, good speed and a great attitude. And then to go out on the mound and pitch like one of the top stars in the game! I so regret that his damn elbow hasn't held up to the strain as of yet. Maybe he'll get Tommy John-ed and come back next summer, just to hit for awhile until he's ready to pitch again. Baseball needs somebody like him to come in and blow our minds. A full healthy year from Ohtani-san and maybe he can help get Mike Trout to the playoffs.

This season so far, Ohtani has batted. .290, gotten on base at a .376 clip, slugged .593 and has an OPS of .970. He has 20 homers and 55 ribbies and has even stolen 9 bases. For comparison Trout..a top MVP candidate... has gone .318/.464/.614/1.078 with 34 homers, 70 ribbies and 23 steals. But Trout has had 567 plate appearances while Ohtani has just 320! Except for on-base Shohei is right there with Trout. And he is almost his equal in ribbies despite 250 fewer trips to the plate!! (Okay, that might have something to do with the fact that Ohtani bats after Trout in the Angel's lineup and Trout has walked 112 times.) Anyway, extrapolate to a full season of plate appearances by doubling these stats and you get something like 38 homers and 110 ribs. That's good enough, wouldn't you say? And add about 20 steals and you have, in Ohtani, the closest thing to a new Alpha-Star that we've seen in baseball in quite some time.

I coined the term Alpha-Star back in 2015 (check July 9^th blog from that year if you want the whole essay) to designate those rare players who dominate in all 5 tool categories. (Those being: ability to hit, hit with power, run, field and throw).

“Dominate” doesn't necessarily mean leading the league in all phases of the game. It means that on any given day, that player is capable of being the very best on the field at all the skills. The prime examples are players like Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Guys like Ted Williams and Stan Musial were awesome hitters of course, but were never the top fielders or runners in their eras. Most Alpha-Stars were either center fielders or shortstops because by definition players with those skill levels would best be used at those positions...if you can run and field and throw that's where they play you and the hitting takes care of itself. The only player who actually DID LEAD his league in every 5 tool category was probably Honus Wagner, the legendary shortstop of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Wagner was a barrel-chested, bowlegged German with blacksmith-type strength. Honus is penalized in our feeble memories because he played in the dead ball era in a small market on fields with no fences when you couldn't hit home runs. But get this, in several seasons Honus lead the league in batting average, slugging percentage and steals. He hit the ball farther than anyone else on those ridiculous no-fence fields they used in the 1900's. He was also the best fielding shortstop and it is said of him that he would have been considered the best fielder in the game at any other position that they could have chosen to use him at. He played all over the diamond. He had the best throwing arm in baseball bar none. (These evaluations are the opinions of hundreds of baseball experts like John McGraw and Connie Mack, managers who played against Wagner and saw thousands of baseball players over the years).

The other Uber-Alpha-Star (with an asterisk) is Babe Ruth. The Babe contended for batting titles, of course hit for power like nobody before or since, and is in a special category with throwing because of his excellence as a pitcher early in his career.

Pitchers don't qualify for Alpha status because they don't often figure in offensively...but their importance as hurlers means that that one skill...throwing...can help them dominate the game. Well, Ruth would have won at least one Cy Young Award if it had existed in his day, so that means he was the very best pitcher in the game at one time and also the very best hitter in several other seasons.

The asterisk is because for most of his career The Babe couldn't run that well. Early on he was actually deceptively fast, but he wasn't a stolen base leader or anything. He is top twenty of all time in steals of home. But power plus pitching has never been seen in our game like this since the Babe...until Ohtani! Bow down...we are not worthy!

Are there any other Alpha-Stars in major league baseball right now? Some are close. Let's take a look:

AL:

1/Mike Trout/Angels. He's close to the top as a hitter and a power hitter. He can steal with the best or close to it if they'd let him run that much. He's a top center fielder. He doesn't have the dominating arm of some other players, but he's much better than he was when he came up. 4 out of 5 categories as an Alpha.

2/Carlos Correa/Astros. Has the power and the hitting ability to go with super speed and fielding ability. One of the best arms in baseball. But Carlos hasn't put it together yet. If he can stay healthy he'll hit 40 homers some day and he can bat .320 anytime. They probably won't want him stealing more than twenty or thirty times a year. He's not the best shortstop in range or magic glove work but he has that arm so he's good enough. Let's give him 3 for 5 but with an up arrow.

3/Jose Altuve/Astros. A perennial MVP candidate and batting champ, Jose has power... in Minute Maid Park. I doubt he'd hit more than 15 a year if his home games were played in Seattle or somewhere. He could lead the league in steals anytime and he's among the very best defensive second baseman. If his arm was stronger they'd have put him at shortstop so we can't give him Alpha status there. Jose gets a 3 for 5 but see below for a more in depth analysis of his value.

4/Alex Bregman/Astros. My choice along with Mookie for MVP this year. These two and Lindor are above J.D.Martinez because of running and defense. Bregman has kept the Astros in the race when all their other hitting stars were injured. Batting Average – top ten. Power - check. (But also helped a whole lot by Minute Maid Park.) Fielding- check (He could be their shortstop if they didn't have Correa.) Throwing not the very best, after all we have Machado and Arenado and arms like that out there, but Bregman is plenty strong. Run – just slightly above average. 10 steals this year. Give Alex a 3 1/2 out of 5 but give him props for hitting 50 doubles and 30 homers in the same season and for being mind-numbingly clutch.

5/Francisco Lindor/Indians. A shortstop and the best in our game. Andrelton Simmons of the Angels is his only real competition as a fielder. Simmons hits better than he used to, but he's not in Lindor's neighborhood. Correa can hit with Frankie, but when they played for their World Baseball Classic team it was Lindor who played short. Nuff said. 41 doubles, 34 homers 23 steals. Only batting .283 so that's not top flight. 4 out of 5.

6/Jose Ramirez/Indians. His .960 OPS is higher than Lindor's. 35 doubles, 38 homers, 99 rbi's and 32 steals. Last year he hit 56 doubles and 29 homers. His batting average of .280 is a little low for Alpha status this year but he hit about .315 the two previous years. That's in the territory. He's been generally unstoppable for three seasons now. Jose plays a lot of positions. Not a gold glover but better than adequate. 3 out of 5.

7/Mookie Betts/Red Sox. All around star. He plays right field instead of center but please remember that right field at Fenway is the biggest and toughest right field in the majors. Mookie's speed allows him to run down a lot of fly balls and liners that other fielders would miss. A lot of value there. His arm isn't as good as the guy to his right, Bradley Junior. But Betts could easily lead the majors in steals if he focused on that and only a very few players can run with him. He's hitting .340 this year to lead the world and his 29 homers are significant power indicators. 4 for 5 in Alpha credits.

8/Vlad Guerrero Junior/Blue Jays. Here's one to watch. Toronto won't bring him up this year to avoid starting his “clock” on free agency, but he's the best prospect in baseball for a 2019 debut. His power is approaching the top of the chart and he will hit for average as well. He has a great eye, and like his Dad, seldom swings and misses. I know his arm is okay (at third base) but his defense is a work in progress at 19. They just moved him to third from the outfield and he has to learn. I doubt if he'll be the running threat that his Dad was, but who knows? Scouting reports are emphatic that this guy will have several .300 average/ 40 homer seasons in the Bigs. 3 for 5.

NL:

1/Juan Soto/Nationals. Pretty exciting player. At 19 he's already a major force in the lineup. The guy is scary looking at the plate. He looks a lot like Manny Ramirez but from the left-hand side. Power to all fields. He's a good base runner but not a stolen base threat of any note. His arm seems just adequate so far and his defense solid but not awe inspiring. But that bat! 2 1/2 for 5 Alpha points.

2/Victor Robles/Nationals. You might have forgotten that the Nats have this Dominican kid for their outfield next year as well. A right handed, high average hitter with plus-plus speed that make him a top notch go get 'em outfielder and stolen base machine. He has a powerful arm too. Only 15-20 homer power projected, but should get lots of extra base hits. 4 out of 5 Alphas.

3/Bryce Harper/Nationals. Oh yeah...that guy again. Despite all the clamor that he's maybe the best player in baseball blah blah he's really only had one outstanding season. That was when he had his stance together and was spraying the ball to all fields with power. It was kind of awe inspiring. He still produces good power, but he seems content to pull the ball into the shift and bat .249. He has 35 homers but 158 strike outs! Good defense, good runner but doesn't try to steal much. Good arm but not an elite arm. 3 out of 5. If somebody could inspire this kid and keep him from sulking so much he could be a Mickey Mantle type.

4/Ronald Acuna/Braves. The Real Deal down in Georgia. Acuna is a high average type hitter with 40 homer a year power, 40 steals a year speed, great defense and one of the best outfield arms in baseball the minute he first took the field. When people start mentioning your name and then saying “Hank Aaron” right after, you better take note. I won't tweek the nose of the Gods by sanctioning this comparison, but I will cross my fingers and pray that it's true. Wouldn't that be a wonderful thing to watch? LEGITIMATE 5 FOR 5 AS AN ALPHA-STAR.

5/Christian Yelich/Brewers. Not dominating yet, but a very good player in all phases who might win the batting crown this year. 29 homers and 19 steals...great defense, arm. Keep your eye on him. 4 out of 5.

6/Javier Baez/Cubs. I have to admit, he shut my mouth this year. I can't stand his type of hitting. No plate discipline...no walks...tons of strikeouts...takes maximum hacks at every opportunity. But this year he's in the top ten in EVERY big offensive category. 31 4-baggers, .295 average, 21 steals and one of the best defensive players at several infield positions with a gun of an arm. Credit where it's do. He's probably the MVP. And he owns 5 OUT OF 5 of the basic baseball tools.

7/Paul Goldschmidt/Diamondbacks. Goldy has character. He had the worst start I almost ever saw for as consistent hitter as he's been but look at his line now, after another season of carrying his team offensively. .300/.401/.558...33/83 homers and rbis. He didn't steal as much this year, but he's had as many as 32 in years past. He's one of the best defensive first basemen so I give him 4 out of 5. He probably should have won the MVP by now.

8/Nolan Arenado/Rockies. I'm sure his stats are a little inflated by Coors Field, but this is a really good player. Always near the top in power and a good average hitter too. Best defensive third sacker in baseball. His arm would be the best if Manny Machado didn't exist. (Manny has the best third base arm I've ever seen. He's much better there than at short because of his range.) Nolan doesn't run with the deer, so give him 4 out of 5 Alpha points.

9/Trevor Story/Rockies. Trevor is the only shortstop in baseball history to hit 30 homers, 40 doubles and steal 25 bases in one season. I thought Nomar or ARod would have done that. Guess not. How good a defensive shortstop is Story? He only has 11 errors this year and that's really good for a shortstop. I'm a little foggy on his range but I think he's petty good. Depending on how good, we might have to give him an extra point. For now we'll give his arm the benefit of the doubt and give him 4 out of 5 points.

10/Yasiel Puig/Dodgers. He has all the tools but never seems to put it all together. At the very top of power/speed/arm strength combos. Plays hard but dumb. Weakest area is hitting for average. 4 for 5.

A latter day Bo Jackson.

So that's my list...7 guys in the AL, 10 in the NL and one sure thing in the minors contending for Alpha-Star status. I will watch them all with pleasure and frustration.

I've said before that I really don't agree that the 5 tool designation really sums up a player's possible contributions to victory in this game. I always add 3 more categories: DURABILITY, INTELLIGENCE and LEADERSHIP. I've explained them all in previous blogs, but here's a short story that illustrates it:

Willie Mays finished in the top 6 for MVP voting 12 times. He started playing in the majors at 20 and didn't miss but maybe 10 total games (except for a spell in the military) in his whole career until he was over 36 years old. Willie's hands were so strong that he regularly won bets that he could catch any pitcher's fastball barehanded. Think about that for a minute. (The only other guy I ever heard of who could do that was big Ernie Lombardi, the catcher from the Cincinnati Reds who could actually hold seven baseballs in one hand.)

Well, back to my point. In addition to his durability, Mays was an on-field coach. He placed the Giants outfield for every hitter, and he knew all the hitters in the league. That's some kind of intelligence that helped his team win. And of course, leadership...how would it feel to play with the best all around player in the history of baseball?

As Leo Durocher used to say, “Jesus Christ could come down from heaven and play center field and I'd still look you in the eye and tell you Willie was better.”

THE RACES:

We're getting so close to the Playoffs that I won't waste too much time speculating on the pennant races this time.

AL:

Boston and Cleveland are in. Houston is a lock.

Houston will be favored because of their four great starting pitchers and suddenly better bullpen.

Cleveland went out and got Josh Donaldson to reunite with his old Toronto pal Edwin Encarnacion. If Josh can get back in game shape that may be the best late season move of the year. Josh is a natural leader and Grit Meister.

Boston has the best record but their pitching is suspect, both starting and bullpen. If Chris Sale can't come back and pitch seven innings every four days they won't win anything. They might start relying more on Stephen Wright and his knuckler to eat up innings and disrupt hitter's timing. Their Ace closer Craig Kimbrel is giving up hits, walks and is using about 30 pitches an inning. Not good.

It looks like Oakland and New York are the wild cards but in what order nobody can tell.

The Yanks have been in a funk. They had the schedule opportunity to beat up on the losers of the league but blew it. What is their major malfunction? Probably the loss of Aaron Judge. He seems to spark them with his Humble Giant routine. Also, Severino has lost control of his slider and therefore leans on his fastball too much. BANG! POW! SEE YA! And another thing...it's really hard to win pennants when you don't have a catcher who can catch ...or at least block...pitches. Sancho Sanchez may be the worst defensive catcher in the majors. The Yanks should DH him and let him be the backup catcher. They need a competent backstop.

Oakland is a Mystery Ship, cruising the sea lanes ready to sink whole convoys. Those home run bats might sweep them to an unexpected victory if they can get their excellent bullpen to divide up the innings efficiently and avoid their very iffy starters.

NL:

Atlanta seems like they're in the catbird seat with their 6 game lead over their only competition the Ever-Napping Nats and the Ever-Festering Phillies. However, the Braves are also liable to go on a ten game losing streak at any moment so I'll wait til the votes are counted, thank you.

The Cubs can't put away the Brewers and the Cards for the division title in the Central.

The Dodgers and the Rockies (who I picked to win) are beating each other up for the Div...but neither looks like they can win the Wild Card over the Cards and the Brew Crew.

Whoever comes out of the NL this year will be a major underdog to whoever the winner of the AL winds up being. I always root for the Red Sox to meet the Cubs in a match of the old time ballparks, but that's mainly nostalgia.

Stand by for a dazzling finish to the season!

---Marco