MARCO'S BASEBALL
BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: HOT STOVE MELTDOWN!
The usual winter
trade/free agent freak out has been short circuited this year by a
combination of Strange Events:
First is the
Giancarlo Stanton Aberration. Next is the Ohtani Oddity.
Add to this the “let's wait til '19” Open Season and the
“It's Time to Tank” 5 year plan now being embraced by so
many clubs.
The 5 year plan
factor, as you've probably noticed, is the new popular way for
the smaller market clubs to actually win something once in awhile. It
involves selling off all your good players in one fell swoop and
reducing your payroll to a bare minimum for several years while you
pick up high draft choices, add them to your stockpile of good
prospects you got from the fire sale and wait for them all to mature
before you pick up a few established stars and make your run for the
flag.
You just saw Houston
execute this perfectly. A few short years ago the Astros had a
payroll of 22 million. Yes, you read that right. 22 million. Their
staff ace was Wandy Rodriguez and they lost over 100 games several
years in a row. Their attendance was pitiful. They knew they were
going to be bad so instead of trying to be competitive they just
tanked so they could pick up draft choices (several first or second
picks like Springer, Correa etc.) and get big money from the luxury
taxed teams. Now they've cashed in.
Other clubs pulling
the same trick recently? The Cubs did it and the Royals.
Right now you see Atlanta, Philadelphia, Chicago White Sox and San
Diego doing it. While the big money clubs keep spending to field
a competitive team every season baseball is having more and more
rotten teams on the field with no chance at all of winning.
Baseball should
institute a minimum team salary or deny tankers the luxury tax money.
That would keep them honest. It's not good to have that many zombie
teams all racing to the bottom at the same time.
So when somebody
like Giancarlo comes up for sale, you have problems. The
Marlins have an unsupportive fan base. Even though they won a couple
of World Series, they've always been chiselers at heart and have
immediately sold all their stars after winning and tanked for a few
years before they got respectable again. (Maybe that's why they
haven't developed a loyal fan base!) Now they can't draw, even with
some great stars and the most powerful bat seen in the majors for
many a long year. Stanton came back from that fastball to the face a
couple of years ago, went courageously back to a closed stance and
with the increased plate coverage just dominated last year. 59
dingers. Mammoth homers. A great attitude. MVP! It still added up to
no fans.
So the owners sell
out to Derek Jeter and some of his cohorts who promptly tell Stanton
to wave his no trade clause or else they'll sell everybody and he'd
be the lone pine tree in a clear cut forest as they reduce payroll.
When Giancarlo signed that “lifetime” 300 million+ contract a
couple of years ago, it looked like the team was committed to a
permanent pursuit of relevance. But like so many big contracts
before, paying one guy that much money essentially cripples a small
market team. It just doesn't work.
So Stanton has to go
or else live in baseball purgatory for the rest of his career
surrounded by rotting Florida Oranges. The Marlins will get very
little from any team in the way of prospects because everybody knows
they have to get rid of Stanton. They might be selling everybody like
days of yore. That means stars like Ozuna and Yellich and Dee Gordon
are also on the block. That's a bad situation for the Marlins.
Who can take on
Stanton and his huge salary? First of all, only a few teams have
even the possibliity of taking on his contract (another 285 million
for ten years). Stanton is 28...by the end of this contract will he
be any kind of player? Plus, he's only played 140+ games thrice in
his whole career! And that was in his twenties! How durable is he
going to be in his late thirties? Maybe an American League team with
the DH can take a chance? Oh! One more roadblock...he can opt out
after 2020 and be a free agent again. One more thing...he only wants
to play in Southern California! (Well, he's probably got a few other
teams on his list, but he can veto anybody he doesn't like.)
So, maybe the Red
Sox, the Yankees, the Cubs, the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Giants
and the Angels have the cash. Add the Phillies and the Mets and the
Rangers as improbable maybes.
The Red Sox were
badly burned paying big money to Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford
back in the day. Even though they need a big bat they need a first
baseman, not an outfielder. They have a terrific defensive outfield
with three young cheap players right now. If they make Stanton the
DH, that means they have to play Hanley Ramirez at first, and he's a
lackadaisical fielder at best. Rumor has it they are trying to trade
for Abreu from the White Sox. Eric Hosmer is a much cheaper free
agent choice.
Even though they've
coveted GS in the past, the Sox won't blow up their budget on that
big a contract with the threat of injury at such high risk-assesment.
The Yankees
are just coming off horrendous long term contracts with stars who
faded badly in their thirties….ARod (may his name be forever
shamed) Texiera, Ellsbury and others. They have Stanton Junior in
Aaron Judge. They object to paying luxury tax already...adding 30 mil
a season doesn't appeal. They made it deep into the Playoffs without
him. Pass.
The Cubs are
saving their money to resign Rizzo and Bryant. They also need
pitchers more than hitters. Stanton's bat would probably produce 60+
homers a year in Wrigley, but when 6 guys in your lineup hit more
than 20, homers aren't such a big attraction. Pass.
The Cardinals
seem interested and have prospects to trade if they need too, but how
much of a difference would one player make to them? Even an aircraft
carrier like GS? The Cardinals really need two or three better
hitters to make a jump. Also, does Giancarlo really want to play
there? St. Louis is not La Hoya. Pass unless the Marlins just take no
prospects and pick up some of the money.
The Giants
may be the best bet. They have money (but an already large $180mil
salary commitment for 2018) and they seem to want the Big Guy. I
guess they got used to all those years of Barry Bonds big “Better
Living Through Chemistry” bat. I think they'd be making a mistake.
Much better to trade for somebody like Ozuna and get a couple of
slightly less elite hitters and bullpen help. Still, the Giants had a
really bad year (their whole outfield combined only hit 38 home
runs!) and they need to make a splash to keep their fans interested.
They are in the right state and may be the Ones.
The Dodgers are
Stanton's chosen team for sure. They were his favorite team growing
up and he wants to live there again. The Dodgers are the only team
where money doesn't matter. They can afford it with their incredibly
good TV contract. Thing is, even the Dodgers might blink if they go
so far above the luxury tax limit that they are paying 75% tax on top
of their yearly salary nut. That's about where Stanton's 30 mil
average year would put them.
Also, the Dodgers
took the Series to 7 games without Stanton and they are the best team
in the League. If they pick up one more good starter and another hot
bullpen arm (they should re-up on free agent Morrow) they'll be fine.
Hmm….not so quick.
Houston exposed the Dodger bats in that Series. Run of the mill
pitchers like Morton and Peacock were getting Seager, Bellinger and
Turner out with ease. Those guys all had good regular seasons, but
don't think baseball didn't notice Bellinger whiffing 17 times on
curve balls in the dirt, Seager impersonating a helicopter or Turner
swinging at balls far out of the zone. Those guys could use
protection like Stanton in that lineup.
Here's the real
rub...the Dodgers really really need to win while Kershaw is still
the dominant pitcher in baseball. I think they'll offer to take
Stanton with a new club opt-out option in the contract (say after
seven years...he can make up that change through all the commercials
and TV guest star gigs he'll get from living in L.A.) and Stanton
will take it rather than suffer the rest of his career in Florida or
play for a non-contender somewhere else. He has to go somewhere
because the Marlins are stabbing him in the back repeatedly trying to
get him out the door. I say the Dodgers can' t resist the lure. Sign
him up, L.A.
The Angels
have money and have shown that they can spend it rashly. They got
burned bad on the Josh Hamilton deal and Albert Pujols, while a
worthy Dude, is hardly the player he was for St. Louis. (He has four
more season on his contract at an average of $28mil per season) They
also need to have a bunch of money on hand to resign Trout when he
comes up a free agent in two more years. They don't want to be stuck
with an aging Stanton and no Trout. Better to spend your money on
players that they really need….a first baseman, a second baseman, a
third sacker a starter and a reliever. (The outfield and DH are the
only areas where they don't need help.) I think that gives them a
better chance to win now...and that's really what they need to do to
keep Trout. I believe Trout would be happy to remain an Angel his
whole career if he could go to the Playoffs more often. He's making
$34 mil a year with the Angels. How much more does he need?
The Phillies
theory is that they could build around Stanton and all their young
players would get better. Remember Ryan Howard? His salary
absolutely killed the Phillies when Ryan entered his dotage. They
won't risk having another injury prone aging slugger on their hands
again.
The Mets are
too messed up to even know what they want. Who's even running the
show over there? The Mets Disaster won't be fixed with one player,
even Stanton.
The Rangers
are going to rebuild. They might even tank like the Astros did, just
to clear the boards for another run. The Rangers had an opportunity
to win and messed it up. Now they must go to Baseball Hell for a few
years until their new park is ready. Prepare for the coming
bloodbath, Rangers fans!
Oh! Oh! Ohtani!
At the other end of the spectrum is the curious free agency of Shohei
Ohtani. As you know, Ohtani is the Japanese Unicorn...a legitimate
two-way player who pitches with a fastball of 100mph and hits homers
as a left-handed power hitter and outfielder. He's only 23 and wants
to play in the Major Leagues. He wants to come here so bad that even
though if he waited two years he could get one of those huge
contracts they give Japanese players in the curious “posting”
system where you pay a Japanese club $200mil and then pay the player
about $70mil, he is willing to forego that just to play with the Big
Boys.
But don't feel too sorry for this noble, selfless Paragon of
Humanity...he stands to make about $20mil a year through endorsements
if he goes Big League.
But because the posting fee is an affordble $20mil and Ohtani's
starting salary capped at $3mil, every team in baseball can afford
him. It all comes down to where he wants to play. Does he go where he
can win right away and play for the Yankees or Dodgers? Does he get
romantic and try out being a Cub? Does he stay on the West Coast with
easier access to Japan when he gets homesick and has a few sushi bars
around the corner? Every team in baseball is sweet talking him and
he's about to make a 21-day grand tour of the American (and
Canadian!) baseball landscape. He's sent out a questionaire to test
out each team's level of rabidity.
First of all, how is he really going to fit into a baseball team? He
wants to remain a two-way player...as a pitcher and a hitter. So an
American League team might use him as a starter every fifth or sixth
day and give him a day of rest or so and then let him DH the next
games. Seems the simplest plan.
But the kid is evidently a damn fine outfielder...even in center. So
a National League club could play him in the outfield when he's not
starting for them. Or they could make him a super-reliever who could
punch people out for two innings and then go back in the field to
keep his bat in the lineup (always assuming he can hang with the
league as a hitter...he seems to be further advanced as a pitcher
right now, but he's still young and he has legit power.)
Here's an idea: I remember watching a college tournament game where
the Texas A&M Aggies had a leftie pitcher who was a real
scrapper. In an extra-inning game they'd let him play first until the
power left-handed hitters came up, then they'd bring him in to pitch
to the lefties and move him back to first when the righties were up.
Of course, to make that plan work out you actually need two players
who can both hit and play another position. Otherwise you run out of
extra players real quick.
Still, with 12 man pitching staffs on 25 man rosters, this may be the
future of baseball...multi position players, including
pitcher/hitters.
As far as Ohtani goes, I think the best plan would be to not put too
much pressure on a young player coming from a foreign land right
away. Put him in the American League and let him be a relief pitcher
when he's not DHing. That way he can concentrate on pitching instead
of having to play the outfield and he could save some energy over
being a starter. Ohtani has a real fluid motion and good form and as
a reliever he only needs two pitches. (Especially when one of them
goes 100mph!)
Therefore the best fits for him are the Yankees, Mariners or the
Angels.
The Yankees have experience with Japanese players and have
Japan's greatest recent pitcher Tanaka already on the team. That
might sell Ohtani right there. Also, there is a huge Japanese
cultural presence in New York, the Yankees always make the Playoffs,
he could make a mint in endorsements and the Yankees actually NEED a
good DH. Plus they have the short right field porch and if Ohtani
could pull the ball he might be a home run sensation right away. In
extra inning games he'd save the Yankees bench strength by being able
to go into the field after pitching his relief stint. (They'd have to
get creative with the DH substitution rule.) The only negative is the
white hot spotlight from New York media and fan intensity. It depends
on Ohtani's personality type...some guys fold quick under the
scrutiny and some guys are Reggie Jackson.
The Angels are in Southern California (last time I looked)
where a large Japanese community would come out to see him play. The
Angels would love to have him cheap for a few years. They don't
really need a starting outfielder and they have Pujols as a DH, so
I'm not sure they fit as well as the Yankees.
The Mariners are a real possibility. They are used to having
Japanese players on the roster. There's a strong Japanese community
in Seattle and the quickest flight to Japan. The Mariners need
pitching and an attendance boost. Negatives...that big ballpark is
hard to hit homers in (unless you're Nelson Cruz), and the Mariners
haven't exactly proved they're contenders yet. More like Pretenders.
They've had real bad luck with injuries….17 starters used last
season! The Mariners have already said they could play Cruz in the
outfield some of the time so Ohtani could DH as well as play some
outfield.
Oakland is in Calilfornia but they have the second lowest
attendance in baeball and the worst ballpark facility (although the
field inself ain't bad). They are forever rebuilding and there'd be
no chance of a Playoff appearance for a while.
As far as the National League goes, I'm betting both San Francisco
and Los Angeles Dodgers make a big run at Ohtani but I don't
think the National League is his best option just starting out. The
Dodgers would be real attractive though.
More Flies in the
Free Agent Ointment
For the 2019 season the free agent market will be the richest in
history. Just a few of the players avaialble will be:
Pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Drew Pomeranz
et al ...
Hitters: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz,
Yasiel Puig, Charlie Blackmon
Bryce Dozier, Adam Jones
...plus many other good players who aren't quite big stars but in a
normal year would be very desirable.
The effect of this free agent tsunami- to-come is that many clubs are
going to wait for a year and see if they can get good help cheap. The
glut should really bring salaries down and lots of great players are
going to be signing for the tender offer of $17million (or whatever
the union agrees to.)
In addition, free agents this year are going to sign for less because
of the future year glut. The really big guys will still get paid:
J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer should do well.
I orignally thought that Hosmer would go to New York and hit
40+ homers a year into that right field porch. But the Yankees seem
to like Bird at first base. Boston could use Hosmer as well
but it would cost them a draft choice and money against their
international signing limit. (So they couldn't go out and spend
$70mil on the next Rusney Castillo!) I don't think Hosmer would up
his homer totals in Fenway, but he'd hit 50 doubles off the wall in
left to go with 20 odd home runs. Of course, even Mitch Moreland hit
34 doubles and 22 homers last year and they're letting him go.
Hosmer is a gamer, a gold glover, and he'd be a clubhouse asset to
both the Yankees or the Red Sox.
J.D. Martinez...he of the 40+ home year for Detroit and Arizona is
this year's free agent darling. For one thing, he doesn't cost any
team a draft pick to sign. The Red Sox want him but don't have an
outfield spot unless they start him in left and sit Bradley Junior.
This hurts their great outfield defense quite a bit. If J.D. can
play first, that would be great. Or they could switch him and Hanley
back and forth at DH and pay the price defensively at first with
either of them. Not a perfect scenario but the Sox need a power bat
and Martinez is that.
Rumors are that the Red Sox are asking about Jose Abreu of the White
Sox. Are they ready to give up Benitendi for Abreu?.. That would be a
very bad move, in my opinion. Benitendi may turn out to be one of the
most popular and productive Red Sox players of all time. He's a great
defender and will win batting championships. He should be an
untouchable. If I were them I'd go for Hosmer.
Oone thing is for sure: Dave Dombrowski will not get shut out in the
off season. He'll make a splash.
I think J.D. will go to the Cardinals after St. Louis gives up its
dreams of Stanton.
And don't give up your dreams of the perfect free agent/trade that
will put your team over the top!
Happy off-season! Happy Christmas! Happy New Year!
