MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: HOT STOVE MELTDOWN!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: HOT STOVE MELTDOWN!

The usual winter trade/free agent freak out has been short circuited this year by a combination of Strange Events:

First is the Giancarlo Stanton Aberration. Next is the Ohtani Oddity. Add to this the “let's wait til '19” Open Season and the “It's Time to Tank” 5 year plan now being embraced by so many clubs.

The 5 year plan factor, as you've probably noticed, is the new popular way for the smaller market clubs to actually win something once in awhile. It involves selling off all your good players in one fell swoop and reducing your payroll to a bare minimum for several years while you pick up high draft choices, add them to your stockpile of good prospects you got from the fire sale and wait for them all to mature before you pick up a few established stars and make your run for the flag.

You just saw Houston execute this perfectly. A few short years ago the Astros had a payroll of 22 million. Yes, you read that right. 22 million. Their staff ace was Wandy Rodriguez and they lost over 100 games several years in a row. Their attendance was pitiful. They knew they were going to be bad so instead of trying to be competitive they just tanked so they could pick up draft choices (several first or second picks like Springer, Correa etc.) and get big money from the luxury taxed teams. Now they've cashed in.

Other clubs pulling the same trick recently? The Cubs did it and the Royals. Right now you see Atlanta, Philadelphia, Chicago White Sox and San Diego doing it. While the big money clubs keep spending to field a competitive team every season baseball is having more and more rotten teams on the field with no chance at all of winning.

Baseball should institute a minimum team salary or deny tankers the luxury tax money. That would keep them honest. It's not good to have that many zombie teams all racing to the bottom at the same time.

So when somebody like Giancarlo comes up for sale, you have problems. The Marlins have an unsupportive fan base. Even though they won a couple of World Series, they've always been chiselers at heart and have immediately sold all their stars after winning and tanked for a few years before they got respectable again. (Maybe that's why they haven't developed a loyal fan base!) Now they can't draw, even with some great stars and the most powerful bat seen in the majors for many a long year. Stanton came back from that fastball to the face a couple of years ago, went courageously back to a closed stance and with the increased plate coverage just dominated last year. 59 dingers. Mammoth homers. A great attitude. MVP! It still added up to no fans.

So the owners sell out to Derek Jeter and some of his cohorts who promptly tell Stanton to wave his no trade clause or else they'll sell everybody and he'd be the lone pine tree in a clear cut forest as they reduce payroll. When Giancarlo signed that “lifetime” 300 million+ contract a couple of years ago, it looked like the team was committed to a permanent pursuit of relevance. But like so many big contracts before, paying one guy that much money essentially cripples a small market team. It just doesn't work.

So Stanton has to go or else live in baseball purgatory for the rest of his career surrounded by rotting Florida Oranges. The Marlins will get very little from any team in the way of prospects because everybody knows they have to get rid of Stanton. They might be selling everybody like days of yore. That means stars like Ozuna and Yellich and Dee Gordon are also on the block. That's a bad situation for the Marlins.

Who can take on Stanton and his huge salary? First of all, only a few teams have even the possibliity of taking on his contract (another 285 million for ten years). Stanton is 28...by the end of this contract will he be any kind of player? Plus, he's only played 140+ games thrice in his whole career! And that was in his twenties! How durable is he going to be in his late thirties? Maybe an American League team with the DH can take a chance? Oh! One more roadblock...he can opt out after 2020 and be a free agent again. One more thing...he only wants to play in Southern California! (Well, he's probably got a few other teams on his list, but he can veto anybody he doesn't like.)

So, maybe the Red Sox, the Yankees, the Cubs, the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Giants and the Angels have the cash. Add the Phillies and the Mets and the Rangers as improbable maybes.

The Red Sox were badly burned paying big money to Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford back in the day. Even though they need a big bat they need a first baseman, not an outfielder. They have a terrific defensive outfield with three young cheap players right now. If they make Stanton the DH, that means they have to play Hanley Ramirez at first, and he's a lackadaisical fielder at best. Rumor has it they are trying to trade for Abreu from the White Sox. Eric Hosmer is a much cheaper free agent choice.

Even though they've coveted GS in the past, the Sox won't blow up their budget on that big a contract with the threat of injury at such high risk-assesment.

The Yankees are just coming off horrendous long term contracts with stars who faded badly in their thirties….ARod (may his name be forever shamed) Texiera, Ellsbury and others. They have Stanton Junior in Aaron Judge. They object to paying luxury tax already...adding 30 mil a season doesn't appeal. They made it deep into the Playoffs without him. Pass.

The Cubs are saving their money to resign Rizzo and Bryant. They also need pitchers more than hitters. Stanton's bat would probably produce 60+ homers a year in Wrigley, but when 6 guys in your lineup hit more than 20, homers aren't such a big attraction. Pass.

The Cardinals seem interested and have prospects to trade if they need too, but how much of a difference would one player make to them? Even an aircraft carrier like GS? The Cardinals really need two or three better hitters to make a jump. Also, does Giancarlo really want to play there? St. Louis is not La Hoya. Pass unless the Marlins just take no prospects and pick up some of the money.

The Giants may be the best bet. They have money (but an already large $180mil salary commitment for 2018) and they seem to want the Big Guy. I guess they got used to all those years of Barry Bonds big “Better Living Through Chemistry” bat. I think they'd be making a mistake. Much better to trade for somebody like Ozuna and get a couple of slightly less elite hitters and bullpen help. Still, the Giants had a really bad year (their whole outfield combined only hit 38 home runs!) and they need to make a splash to keep their fans interested. They are in the right state and may be the Ones.

The Dodgers are Stanton's chosen team for sure. They were his favorite team growing up and he wants to live there again. The Dodgers are the only team where money doesn't matter. They can afford it with their incredibly good TV contract. Thing is, even the Dodgers might blink if they go so far above the luxury tax limit that they are paying 75% tax on top of their yearly salary nut. That's about where Stanton's 30 mil average year would put them.

Also, the Dodgers took the Series to 7 games without Stanton and they are the best team in the League. If they pick up one more good starter and another hot bullpen arm (they should re-up on free agent Morrow) they'll be fine.

Hmm….not so quick. Houston exposed the Dodger bats in that Series. Run of the mill pitchers like Morton and Peacock were getting Seager, Bellinger and Turner out with ease. Those guys all had good regular seasons, but don't think baseball didn't notice Bellinger whiffing 17 times on curve balls in the dirt, Seager impersonating a helicopter or Turner swinging at balls far out of the zone. Those guys could use protection like Stanton in that lineup.

Here's the real rub...the Dodgers really really need to win while Kershaw is still the dominant pitcher in baseball. I think they'll offer to take Stanton with a new club opt-out option in the contract (say after seven years...he can make up that change through all the commercials and TV guest star gigs he'll get from living in L.A.) and Stanton will take it rather than suffer the rest of his career in Florida or play for a non-contender somewhere else. He has to go somewhere because the Marlins are stabbing him in the back repeatedly trying to get him out the door. I say the Dodgers can' t resist the lure. Sign him up, L.A.

The Angels have money and have shown that they can spend it rashly. They got burned bad on the Josh Hamilton deal and Albert Pujols, while a worthy Dude, is hardly the player he was for St. Louis. (He has four more season on his contract at an average of $28mil per season) They also need to have a bunch of money on hand to resign Trout when he comes up a free agent in two more years. They don't want to be stuck with an aging Stanton and no Trout. Better to spend your money on players that they really need….a first baseman, a second baseman, a third sacker a starter and a reliever. (The outfield and DH are the only areas where they don't need help.) I think that gives them a better chance to win now...and that's really what they need to do to keep Trout. I believe Trout would be happy to remain an Angel his whole career if he could go to the Playoffs more often. He's making $34 mil a year with the Angels. How much more does he need?

The Phillies theory is that they could build around Stanton and all their young players would get better. Remember Ryan Howard? His salary absolutely killed the Phillies when Ryan entered his dotage. They won't risk having another injury prone aging slugger on their hands again.

The Mets are too messed up to even know what they want. Who's even running the show over there? The Mets Disaster won't be fixed with one player, even Stanton.

The Rangers are going to rebuild. They might even tank like the Astros did, just to clear the boards for another run. The Rangers had an opportunity to win and messed it up. Now they must go to Baseball Hell for a few years until their new park is ready. Prepare for the coming bloodbath, Rangers fans!

Oh! Oh! Ohtani!

At the other end of the spectrum is the curious free agency of Shohei Ohtani. As you know, Ohtani is the Japanese Unicorn...a legitimate two-way player who pitches with a fastball of 100mph and hits homers as a left-handed power hitter and outfielder. He's only 23 and wants to play in the Major Leagues. He wants to come here so bad that even though if he waited two years he could get one of those huge contracts they give Japanese players in the curious “posting” system where you pay a Japanese club $200mil and then pay the player about $70mil, he is willing to forego that just to play with the Big Boys.

But don't feel too sorry for this noble, selfless Paragon of Humanity...he stands to make about $20mil a year through endorsements if he goes Big League.

But because the posting fee is an affordble $20mil and Ohtani's starting salary capped at $3mil, every team in baseball can afford him. It all comes down to where he wants to play. Does he go where he can win right away and play for the Yankees or Dodgers? Does he get romantic and try out being a Cub? Does he stay on the West Coast with easier access to Japan when he gets homesick and has a few sushi bars around the corner? Every team in baseball is sweet talking him and he's about to make a 21-day grand tour of the American (and Canadian!) baseball landscape. He's sent out a questionaire to test out each team's level of rabidity.

First of all, how is he really going to fit into a baseball team? He wants to remain a two-way player...as a pitcher and a hitter. So an American League team might use him as a starter every fifth or sixth day and give him a day of rest or so and then let him DH the next games. Seems the simplest plan.

But the kid is evidently a damn fine outfielder...even in center. So a National League club could play him in the outfield when he's not starting for them. Or they could make him a super-reliever who could punch people out for two innings and then go back in the field to keep his bat in the lineup (always assuming he can hang with the league as a hitter...he seems to be further advanced as a pitcher right now, but he's still young and he has legit power.)

Here's an idea: I remember watching a college tournament game where the Texas A&M Aggies had a leftie pitcher who was a real scrapper. In an extra-inning game they'd let him play first until the power left-handed hitters came up, then they'd bring him in to pitch to the lefties and move him back to first when the righties were up. Of course, to make that plan work out you actually need two players who can both hit and play another position. Otherwise you run out of extra players real quick.

Still, with 12 man pitching staffs on 25 man rosters, this may be the future of baseball...multi position players, including pitcher/hitters.

As far as Ohtani goes, I think the best plan would be to not put too much pressure on a young player coming from a foreign land right away. Put him in the American League and let him be a relief pitcher when he's not DHing. That way he can concentrate on pitching instead of having to play the outfield and he could save some energy over being a starter. Ohtani has a real fluid motion and good form and as a reliever he only needs two pitches. (Especially when one of them goes 100mph!)

Therefore the best fits for him are the Yankees, Mariners or the Angels.

The Yankees have experience with Japanese players and have Japan's greatest recent pitcher Tanaka already on the team. That might sell Ohtani right there. Also, there is a huge Japanese cultural presence in New York, the Yankees always make the Playoffs, he could make a mint in endorsements and the Yankees actually NEED a good DH. Plus they have the short right field porch and if Ohtani could pull the ball he might be a home run sensation right away. In extra inning games he'd save the Yankees bench strength by being able to go into the field after pitching his relief stint. (They'd have to get creative with the DH substitution rule.) The only negative is the white hot spotlight from New York media and fan intensity. It depends on Ohtani's personality type...some guys fold quick under the scrutiny and some guys are Reggie Jackson.

The Angels are in Southern California (last time I looked) where a large Japanese community would come out to see him play. The Angels would love to have him cheap for a few years. They don't really need a starting outfielder and they have Pujols as a DH, so I'm not sure they fit as well as the Yankees.

The Mariners are a real possibility. They are used to having Japanese players on the roster. There's a strong Japanese community in Seattle and the quickest flight to Japan. The Mariners need pitching and an attendance boost. Negatives...that big ballpark is hard to hit homers in (unless you're Nelson Cruz), and the Mariners haven't exactly proved they're contenders yet. More like Pretenders. They've had real bad luck with injuries….17 starters used last season! The Mariners have already said they could play Cruz in the outfield some of the time so Ohtani could DH as well as play some outfield.

Oakland is in Calilfornia but they have the second lowest attendance in baeball and the worst ballpark facility (although the field inself ain't bad). They are forever rebuilding and there'd be no chance of a Playoff appearance for a while.

As far as the National League goes, I'm betting both San Francisco and Los Angeles Dodgers make a big run at Ohtani but I don't think the National League is his best option just starting out. The Dodgers would be real attractive though.

More Flies in the Free Agent Ointment

For the 2019 season the free agent market will be the richest in history. Just a few of the players avaialble will be:

Pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Drew Pomeranz et al ...

Hitters: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Charlie Blackmon

Bryce Dozier, Adam Jones

...plus many other good players who aren't quite big stars but in a normal year would be very desirable.

The effect of this free agent tsunami- to-come is that many clubs are going to wait for a year and see if they can get good help cheap. The glut should really bring salaries down and lots of great players are going to be signing for the tender offer of $17million (or whatever the union agrees to.)

In addition, free agents this year are going to sign for less because of the future year glut. The really big guys will still get paid: J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer should do well.

I orignally thought that Hosmer would go to New York and hit 40+ homers a year into that right field porch. But the Yankees seem to like Bird at first base. Boston could use Hosmer as well but it would cost them a draft choice and money against their international signing limit. (So they couldn't go out and spend $70mil on the next Rusney Castillo!) I don't think Hosmer would up his homer totals in Fenway, but he'd hit 50 doubles off the wall in left to go with 20 odd home runs. Of course, even Mitch Moreland hit 34 doubles and 22 homers last year and they're letting him go.

Hosmer is a gamer, a gold glover, and he'd be a clubhouse asset to both the Yankees or the Red Sox.

J.D. Martinez...he of the 40+ home year for Detroit and Arizona is this year's free agent darling. For one thing, he doesn't cost any team a draft pick to sign. The Red Sox want him but don't have an outfield spot unless they start him in left and sit Bradley Junior. This hurts their great outfield defense quite a bit. If J.D. can play first, that would be great. Or they could switch him and Hanley back and forth at DH and pay the price defensively at first with either of them. Not a perfect scenario but the Sox need a power bat and Martinez is that.

Rumors are that the Red Sox are asking about Jose Abreu of the White Sox. Are they ready to give up Benitendi for Abreu?.. That would be a very bad move, in my opinion. Benitendi may turn out to be one of the most popular and productive Red Sox players of all time. He's a great defender and will win batting championships. He should be an untouchable. If I were them I'd go for Hosmer.

Oone thing is for sure: Dave Dombrowski will not get shut out in the off season. He'll make a splash.

I think J.D. will go to the Cardinals after St. Louis gives up its dreams of Stanton.

And don't give up your dreams of the perfect free agent/trade that will put your team over the top!

Happy off-season! Happy Christmas! Happy New Year!