Marco's Baseball Blog-o-Roonie: Death or Glory

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: DEATH OR GLORY

...a short discussion of 4 of this year's MLB teams balancing on the knife edge...

BOSTON RED SOX: After finishing last in the division 3 out of 4 years, the Sox need to make a statement to keep their fickle fan base satisfied.

The good news: They finally got some of their young position players to produce...Betts and Bogaerts came on strong and should be dependable on-base type hitters for awhile. Neither one is much of a homer threat but doubles off the wall are nice and Betts especially has good stolen base potential. Jackie Bradley Jr. showed flashes of being a good offensive player. He's already lights out as an outfielder but has to hit to play.

Swihart and Vasquez are very promising young catchers. Trouble is, Swihart looks much better offensively and Vasquez is much better on D. That's too bad.

Possible Problem areas: Ortiz is 40 and retiring and he's still their most productive bat. It's dangerous depending on your oldest guy for offense. (See Yankees with Arod). Also, Pedroia is over 30 and getting hurt every year now. He's been their other inspirational leader.

Can Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval bounce back? You need good hitters at third and first and these guys were not that good last year. Come to think of it, you need a good bat in left too, and Rusney Castillo (the $70 million dollar Cuban) hasn't shown much at all. And at 29 he should be in his prime.

I think Hanley is over his shoulder issues and will be happier at first than he was in left. But Pablo's career may be done early. Guys that fat don't usually last too long unless they're named Ruth.

One caveat: Recently, National League hitters coming over to the American League usually gag on furballs their first year in the new league. That's because the National League is a fastball league where pitchers challenge you and the American is a breaking ball/finesse type pitching league. Albert Pujols went down a couple of notches when he went to the Angels from the Cards, even though Busch Stadium is more pitcher friendly. Tulowitzski slumped immediately on getting to the AL from Colorado. I expect Hanley and Panda both fell victim to this quirk and also the high expectations of Boston-town. (By the way, watch Todd Frazier on the White Sox after being a Red for a long spell...he could fall into this syndrome too.)

More questions: How is the pitching going to react? They have Price to lead the rotation. That can't hurt. And Kimbrel is the new closer..taking pressure off that fragile bullpen. You have to figure Buchholtz will get hurt as usual and miss half the season. That means Porcello, Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez better be good...because all the young pitchers the Sox have been developing in the last few years look like cat meat.

Pre-Spring Death or Glory Prediction: Hanley will hit but suck at first leading to controversy in the infield all season with Brock Holt and Travis Shaw getting a lot of playing time at first.

Pablo will continue to under-perform and the Sox will play Holt at third a lot too.

Rusney won't hit and Chris Young will be the left fielder.

Pedroia will get hurt again and the Sox will bring up another Cuban sensation...Yoan Moncada (49 steals in 81 minor league games)... to play second.

Ortiz will hit 22 homers but bat about .230 in his last season and the pitching won't be good enough to get them over the hump. Ultimately, the Sox are counting on 5 young position players to be as good or better than they were last year. (Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley Jr., Castillo and Swihart) They are also counting on their two old pros to have healthy seasons. (Ortiz and Pedroia) Then their two position players who are supposed to be in their prime have to come back from the wilderness. (Ramirez and Sandoval) And the pitching after Price and Kimbrel has to do a 180 degree turn and become solid again. That's counting on a lot of big IFS. In a tough division like the East? Third place.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS: The pins are deeply imbedded in this voodoo-doll team. Whose turn is it to gag this week? That was their motto last year. Now they have Dusty Baker...Mr. Player's Manager...to keep them loose and lead them to victory. The Mets are favored, but everybody...especially the team owners...need the Nats to step up.

Possible problem areas: Everywhere. The Nats are mostly old and fragile. Bryce Harper is Mr. All Everything but last year is the first time he's stayed healthy for the whole season and he must feel the pressure having to hit a homer every game for them to win. (Now he knows how Ted Williams felt).

They are counting on Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth to be their other big bats but those guys are old (Zimmerman and Werth) and hurt (Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth). And they owe Zim and Jamie millions upon millions of dollars that their diminished skills won't be justifying anymore.

More questions: Their starting pitching cratered behind Scherzer last year (and he was strangely slumping in between no-hitters!)Their number two...Jordan Zimmerman...is off to Detroit. Strasburg was terrible but is in his walk year and might rally. Bullpen is suspect...a C at best.

Death or Glory: Same as last year. Second place in the East...no wild card.

DETROIT TIGERS: Will the Bengals go extinct? I sure hope not cause I love some of their players.

The good news: Miggy, Vmart, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and now Justin Upton? That's some powerful lineup. They got Jordan Zimmerman as a number 2 and KRod to be the closer.

Possible problem areas: Of course Miggy and Vmart have leg problems and Vmart is the only left-handed bat in the lineup. Verlander is a shadow of his former self and not a real Ace anymore.

Death or Glory: What happens to injury prone offensive juggernauts who don't really have much of a pitching staff? They finish fourth.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES: Last time around for the Buccos? This is one of the best teams in baseball.

The good news: They have good players, a solid pitching philosophy and a great manager for that team. What they don't have is depth and luck. And money...they ain't got enough money to be a free agent player.

Possible problem areas: Their infield defense sucks. After Gerrit Cole they are counting on either very young (Tyler Glasnow) or very old (Liriano) starters.

More questions: the Cardinals are in their heads for sure. And now it looks like the Cubs...Especially Jake Arrieta...are all the way down into the brain stem.

Death or Glory: The Pirates have one of the best outfields in baseball with McCutcheon, Marte and Polanco. The last two are entering their prime and should improve on last year. They also have one of the best bullpens. They also found an unexpectedly solid catcher in Cervelli to handle the staff. If they stay healthy (again...not much team depth) and third baseman Kang comes back from his knee injury and has a good year to go with their veterans...I think this team will knock off the Cubs and Cardinals this year and win the division.

Nobody expects them too. Everybody loves the Cubs (for good reason I suppose). But that's why I don't think the Cubs win it. I think something is driving the Pirates to do it now and I think they will this year.

MY PRE-SPRING TRAINING PICKS:

AL EAST:

1/Toronto (Stroman and Estrada unexpected Aces)

2/New York (3 Bullpen supermen!)

3/Boston (still adjusting youth with vets...Price and Ortiz on the same club?)

4/Baltimore (got Davis back but no pitching)

5/Tampa Bay (all pitching, no lineup)

AL CENTRAL:

1/Kansas City( with Gordon back,good chemistry team prime)

2/Minnesota (over-achievers with good youngsters)

3/Cleveland (great pitch...not enough hit...late fade)

4/Detroit (oldsters can't stay on field)

5/Chicago (every year you'd think they'd be better)

AL WEST:

1/Texas (Darvish,Hamels,Beltre,Fielder,Odor,DeShields)

2/Houston (coming hard but too many holes)

3/Seattle (can they stay this bad? Wasting King's career)

4/Los Angeles (old, hurt, no starters)

5/Oakland (young and hungry...will compete)

NL EAST:

1/New York (because they got smart and got Cespedes)

2/Washington (Dusty improves chemistry...not enough)

3/Miami (talent and Mattingly makes them dangerous)

4/Philadelphia (only 'cause Atlanta is worse)

5/Atlanta (can they catch Philly?)

NL CENTRAL:

1/Pittsburgh (surprise! They peak at the right time!)

2/Chicago (brilliant adds Heyward, Zobrist but too many young guys out of position and K bait)

3/St. Louis (lost too much...young pitchers run dry)

4/Milwaukee (Suckola but Reds keep them from last)

5/Cincinnati (What's that smell? Dead Reds in the road.)

NL WEST:

1/Los Angeles (Dave Roberts works miracles)

2/San Francisco (Bochy and Bumgarner the best...but injuries do them in again)

3/Arizona (too many new pieces to fit right away)

4/San Diego (retool in bad park)

5/Colorado(no answer to getting pitchers to sign with them)