MARCO’S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2021: RATS!
From whither comest the storm? Pre-season was so much fun...analyzing and staring at stat graphs and coming up with sophisticated new ways of predicting how everything ...would be going to hell in the first third of a season!
I was so sure that the White Sox were going to bust out this season. Well, they are in first place by 4 games, but only because the Twins collapsed, the Indians never came up with any outfielders and the Royals shot their wad early. Still, they don’t exactly have a Death Grip on the AL Central.
As per the White Sox, I predicted the Latino superstars were going to ignite the offense. Well, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert aren’t even going to play anymore this season! Bang Bang My Baby Shot Me Down. But that’s the theme of this season: BIG STARS GET OUCHIES…RATS!
Just a cursory glance at the roster of teams shows a super high attrition rate for superstars. And if they’re not hurt they’re slumping. Result? Parity Plus Exploitation.
Translation: weird teams are leading the divisions and strange unheard of heroes are leading the league in everything.
I also said that success for the Sox depended on Abreu and Tony LaRussa inspiring the troops and Lucas Giolito settling in as the Ace. Sorry Lucas, didn’t mean to startle you with the sudden saddles of expectation. Go back to being your happy little Number Four starter self. Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel and Carlos “No Hit’ Rodon are doing the heavy lifting for the pitching staff. The bullpen is not that deep but Liam Hendrick and company have been good enough. (And Lucas has been respectable in 3 out of the last 4 starts.)
Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson have been helping Abreu offensively, but the shocker has been a third string catcher turned DH named ‘Squirmin’ Yermin Mercedes. Big old guy who gets up there, jiggles his fat boobs like nobody since Panda Sandoval and takes an exaggerated ‘leg load ‘ swing. He hits screaming line drives to all fields and is the most entertaining hitter I’ve seen all year...(along with Ohtani, Soto, Acuna and Vlad Guerrero Jr. )
I was a little better foretelling the fairly close race in the AL East. I had the Rays in first and now that they just had an eleven game win streak they look pretty solid over the Yankees, who, in what has begun to be an all too predictable tradition, again lost their entire starting outfield to injury. Their starting pitching after Cole was abysmal early, but suddenly on track when Corey Kluber found the control button on his breaking ball and became a dangerous number two behind Cole. Domingo German and Jordan Montgomery also showed a pulse and suddenly the Yankees stopped losing series. But now they’ve regressed again.
The offense has been horrible for the Bombers. 5 Starters below the Mendoza, very feeble power numbers, even when playing in home run heaven Yankee Stadium. Aaron Judge is carrying them with some help from Urshela and DJ LeMahieu. Giancarlo was starting to get hot before he got his first trip...for THIS year... to the IL a couple of weeks ago. And just the other night...Gulp!...Corey Kluber came out of the game with a sore shoulder left over from his no-hit effort of his last start. The Yankees can ill afford etc. etc. The upshot for Corey? Out at least 8 weeks. Rats!
Both the Yanks and the Rays have one Big Weapon...their Bullpens. Of course Aroldis Chapman re-kindles the embers of my childhood truculence toward all things pinstripe with that insulting stare-down gimmick he does when he strikes out anybody. What a Man you are Aroldis! Let them know that you are just So Magnificent! Shame them for their weakness! You win again, Aroldis!
Not enough mustard in the world for that hot dog. Makes me want them to outlaw the DH so sometime Aroldis will have to go to the plate and get humiliated.
Remember a player named Mariano Rivera? He was a pretty good player. He made hitters look helpless when he threw that same cutter over and over and over. He NEVER did anything to show up an opponent. It was his creed. People now call him the greatest relief pitcher ever. Wonder why he gets the Love? Sure he was talented. But he treated his opponents with Respect, win or lose.
The Rays have to lean on the bullpen because they won’t leave their starters in for more than 4 innings. They just traded their shortstop Willie Adamis for two more relief arms. Their plan is ‘burn up the bullpen’. We’ll see if that lasts. Meanwhile, when Wendle and Weathers and Arozarena are hot, the Rays win monotonously.
I expected the Blue Jays to wedge into third place in the East with their core of Hall of Famer-spawn. But they have broken the magic code of successful teams: not enough good starters, not enough good relievers. Sure enjoy watching that team hit, though. Key injury? George Springer has yet to pounce upon anyone at all.
Second place is a surprising spot for the Red Sox. (They were the winningest team in the majors for awhile there.) It turns out all the ingredients are present, starting with 3 MVP candidates: J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. All are double figures in doubles and homers, all have 30+ rbis and an OPS of over .960. If those three stay healthy, the Red Sox will score runs. Verdugo, Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe...all versatile and valuable guys. Vasquez and Plawecki are solid at catcher.
The starters are not flashy, but they keep the Sox in most games. Their closer, the oft maligned (in these quarters) Matt Barnes, has been awesome. Nobody seems to be able to lay off that high heater. If the Red Sox get Chris Sale back or some reasonable facsimile of an outstanding starter, they could go all the way...again! Fun to contemplate but my money is still on the Rays.
The AL West is muddled. The Astros have a +69 run differential over their opponents, but are neck and neck with the Oakland A’s. Still, the Astro hitters are steadily warming up with the summer weather and I fully expect them to prove to be a big problem for other teams with that lineup of Altuve, Bregman, Bradley, Correa, Gurriel, Alvarez and Tucker. They may need another pitcher or two unless they start letting Greinke pitch complete games every time out.
Seattle is a sub .500 team. And the Angels have proven once again that you can’t win games without a pitching staff. They seem to think that Trout, Rendon and Ohtani are enough to get into the playoffs and they are wrongy wrong wrong. Especially when the Stud of Studs Mike Trout pulled his calf muscle.
Oakland seems to have the tenacity to keep the heat on the Houstonians despite having received instructions from MLB to build a new stadium immediately or move to another city. The Coliseum is falling down around their ears and has been the worst baseball venue for years. The big plan to renovate a waterfront wasteland of Oakland into an entertainment/office/ballpark type area is also looking less likely and would take until 2027 to finish. It’s just a shame that MLB lets their neighbor, the cosmopolitan Giants, bully the A’s out of being able to set up shop in or around San Jose, one of the most populous areas of the country with no major sports franchises. Somebody help this club...they have managed to get into the playoffs year after year with virtually no support.
Anyway, with a lousy stadium at one quarter capacity the A’s don’t have any money for upgrades. What you see now is what will have to get them through. First baseman Matt Olsen and centerfielder Ramon Laureano have been their big guns. If some of their young pitchers would round into form they could do something in the playoffs.
It might come down to the “Orphan” A’s and the Tampa Ray “Prisoners of the Tropicana” for the pennant. It would be ironic justice. So would the San Antonio Alamos vs. the Austin Athletics...coming in 2024!
NL EAST:
The New York Mets lost 6 out of 8 starters all at once and several reserves who tried to replace them. It seemed like the only guy not hurt was Francisco Lindor. Could Frankie carry them? Not when he’s batting .200 with 4 homers and about 12 ribbies. He’s been almost totally embalmed for the whole season. I guess $363 million wasn’t enough to inspire Lindor. Or else the large dimensions of Citi Field intimidated his bat.
Also, the Mets were counting on Thor Syndergaard coming back by about July 1 to boost their rotation. His elbow is still creaky though. So all this sounds like the Mets should be eating the dust of the NL East. SURPRISE! The Mets lead the East by 4 1/2 games! That’s how out-of-sorts everything got this first third of the year.
The Mets have 3 great pitchers going well: Stroman, Walker and DeGrom. DeGrom especially is just dominating the league. His WHIP is 0.569 which is almost unheard of. He’s struck out 82 batters and walked only 7... in 51 innings! Not a misprint! So even though the Mets have a bad offense and suspect defense, the Mets are winning enough to be safely in first place in the East. Their bullpen has been very good as well.
My pick to win a Wild Card out of this division, the Atlanta Braves, have fallen and can’t get up. They lead the league in home runs and are number 2 in OPS, but their record is 28-29... barely good enough for second place behind the Metskies. MVP Freddie Freeman has 12 dingers but is batting .232 with no protection behind him now that Marcel Ozuna has broken his fingers with a headfirst slide and then broken his wife by shoving her into a wall. Ronald Acuna Jr. has carried the team with his power numbers (17 four-baggers, 35 rbis and an OPS of 1.016). But nothing can make up for a staff ERA of 4.50 and holding the 14th spot in home runs allowed. The Braves are in real trouble this year.
So that must mean the Nationals are back to contend for another title? Not quite. They are in fourth place in the division at 24-32.
The Nats are only dangerous when Scherzer is pitching. Everyone else they send out to the mound is punctured like balloons at a darts tournament. Strasburg has been hurt all season, came back, pitched badly and got hurt again. Juan Soto tweaked a hammy (I think it was) and slumped for the first time in his career. (He’s still hitting .285 with an OPS of .847 which is slumping for him.)
So that must mean the Phillies are on the warpath? Are you kidding? With Bryce Harper on the plank they are barely a .500 team. If they hadn’t gotten Zach Wheeler they’d be in last place easily. Zach has been a superstud Ace for them. A lonesome ray of sunlight in the Gray Spring of Philadelphia.
So that must mean the Miracle Miami Marlins are gleefully marching to a division title? No. It means you should go to your room with no dinner. The Marlins are bottom five in every important offensive category. Hope for the future? Yes. Their pitching staff is fifth best in the NL, led by apparent Ace-in-Waiting Trevor Rogers and his 1.87 ERA.
The NL East...it’s like there’s one clean pig in a really mucky sty. That’s the Mets. I still say the Nationals wake up and smell the pig-poo and start winning. They’ve done it before!
NL CENTRAL:
Best Laid Plans department: The brain trust of the Chicago Cubs quietly decided to dismantle this team because they couldn’t afford to keep their free agents. They let Darvish go. They traded Schwarber. They seem to have no intention of trying to retain Baez, Rizzo, Bryant or Contreras. (They have to keep Jason Heyward so they can keep paying him 21 million a year to bat .181 on into the foreseeable future.) Their pitching staff has become a collection of change-up artists in the era of triple-digit Mega-Hurlers. The bullpen was left to it’s own devices after what was left of Craig Kimbrel.
But wait a minute...nobody in the National League seems to be able to hit a change up! The bullpen has gotten astoundingly effective! Craig Kimbrel is looking like a hunchback right-handed Billy ‘the Kid’ Wagner! They even caught lightning in a bottle when call-up Patrick Wisdom hit 8 bombs in his first 40 at bats!
UH-OH...the Cubs are in first place!
All those free agents-to-be who sucked last year are on hot streaks. If they trade them now the Cubs fans will go 6th of January all over them. So the Cubs Brass are just quietly hoping that the Cubs will lay down so they can execute their plan to “go for the price on Wilson” (in the immortal words of Marlon Brando).
I say the Cubs should have a little faith in the old pros and buy some help for them. Nothing too radical...just a pitcher or two and maybe one more hitter. We could have one last glorious pennant race among the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds and Cubbies and let the Adorables give the fans something to remember before they go elsewhere to collect their millions.
The Brewers representative in the “Whose superstar player is injured the most?” sweepstakes is Christian Yelich. Old Yeller had a back injury that dove him down from back-to-back batting titles in 2018-19 with 80 home runs to the low .200s and 15 long balls since then. And it’s not like he has much help on that roster. The team average is .211! And yet the Brewers are in it because of their great pitching! (Led by Brandon Woodruff with an ERA of 1.42 and Josh Hader at 0.76). If only Yelich could heal up he might carry them to paydirt offensively.
The MilBrews have gone 11-3 since they traded for Tampa shortstop Willie Adames. He sparked the team. And catcher Omar Narvaez is hitting .317 and should be an All Star.
Meanwhile the Cardinals have been cruising in neutral for awhile but are right there at the top of the standings with Chicago and Milwaukee. They got a big surprise when their Gold Glove outfielder Tyler O’Neill started hitting to help Goldschmidt and Arenado provide some pop. Yadier Molina has been an offensive weapon too, but he’s temporarily wounded.
Where the Cards look weak is in their pitching. They can’t afford to lose anybody else like Flaherty. At least their closer Reyes has been lock down.
Yes, the Cincinnatti Reds are in it. They are playing .500 ball and in fourth place but they’re just as likely as anybody else in that division to get hot. But what happened to Luis Castillo? He looked bad early on. He needs to put more resin on the ball like all those other pitchers who rely on sinking change-ups. (MLB is just about to almost seriously go after that little problem...now that the whole league is threatening to hit the Mendoza Line and striking out two six packs a game.)
What’s this Jesse Winker guy up to? At first I got him mixed up with the Tampa wunderkind third baseman/shortstop Joey Wendle because they both have Mother Goose type names but now I am willing to admit that they are actually separate people. They are both having great years but Winker-Bean has gone yard three times in a game twice this season!
And Pittsburgh sleeps on…
NL WEST:
Everybody in baseball was ready to hand the trophy to the Dodgers in April. I agreed that they were stacked...especially with their pitching. But Brian May went down. Corey Seager went down. Bellinger went down. Mookie Betts couldn’t get it going. Hello, Third Place!
But let’s not forget that the Bluebloods have a +83 run differential...just like last year when they wound up at +171. they’ve outscored that opponents at home by +55 runs!
Don’t underestimate the Dodgers. To me, it looks like they’ve been on cruise control all year.
My pick to win it all this year was the Padres and they’ve been following the script for the most part. Stay close to the Angelinos until all the new players get used to each other and then turn it on in the summer and boogie. The Pads are different from other teams in that they have a dynamic offense that not only crushes home runs, but steals bases. They’re not totally helpless against these big pitchers because they can manufacture runs. And in the field they have strong defense and strong starters like Darvish and Musgrove. It looks like Blake Snell is finding a rhythm at last and Mark Melacon has saved 19 games already.
The most impressive thing I’ve seen this season (with competition from Ohtani’s all-round awesomeness) was Tatis Jr. coming back from a dislocated shoulder, taking a long week off and retooling his swing on the fly to keep both hands on the bat so he wouldn’t reinjure himself. His first series? 4 games against the Dodger pitching staff in their place. The Friars win the series and Tatis hits 5 touch-em-alls. That was an announcement of greatness.
The Big Shocker of the season so far? The San Francisco Gigantics. I wouldn’t even rate them because I didn’t think they had a prayer in that division with all those aging, creaky players. Stupid me. Those aging creaky players are playing way, way better than ever before. Shortstop Brandon Crawford (14 homers/41 RBIs) and especially Buster Posey (.336/.988 OPS) are having great, if not CAREER years. They bet heavily on 30 year old starter Kevin Gausman and he’s gone out and given them a .0760 WHIP/1.27 ERA/93K/16BB third of a season.
It’s an unexpected pleasure to have the Giants leading the division with a 38-22 record. Who will win the West is now not a rhetorical question. The Giants have a very easy schedule for a month, then they play 9 games against L.A. from the end of June until the end of July and 10 games versus San Diego in September. That should be fun.
The Diamondbacks and Rockies are playing for pride but let’s face it...they are mostly fodder.
And Now…
...a curiousity from Baseball’s Past that illustrates the Evolution of the Game!
The Philadelphia Athletics played through two World Series without a substitution.
Manager Connie Mack never made a change in the lineup during any game. No relief pitchers, pinch hitter, pinch runner...no substitute for the full 9 innings of any contest.
He used twelve men in the five games of both the 1910 and the 1913 Series. In 1910 he only used two pitchers...Chief Bender and Jack Coombs. In 1913 he had Bender, Eddie Plank and Bullet Joe Bush pitch 5 complete games.
The Athletics won each Series 4 games to 1.
See you by the All Star break!
Marco Perella
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