Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2020: Greatest of All Time

MARCO’S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2020: GREATEST OF ALL TIME?

I am NOT going to talk about the Houston Disastros or the 2020 “Garbage Can Commemorative Bloodbath-Bang” Tour they are about to endure this coming season. My lips are sealed! (Collective sigh of relief from you readers, I am sure.)

I am NOT going to talk about the trade of Mookie Betts and David Price from the Boston Furball - Gaggers to the Los Angeles Tinsel Towners. ( Collective exclamation of “Thank God” from same.)

No...let’s crawl back in our hole and find a happy place and suck our thumbs and nourish ourselves with the warm milk of appreciation of baseball heroes present and past. Leave those bad boogies in the closet where they can scare you but not demand your immediate attention. (Except you Dodger Fans who I am sure are pre-celebrating your 2020 World Championship. Party On Dudes!)

It’s Spring Training and we need Solace.

So, for this exercise in distraction, let us take up the case of Mike Trout. Is he indeed the Greatest of All-Time (G.O.A.T.) of all baseball….past, present and future?

This is the poetically proposed and pulsatingly pounded premise being prepared by Pundits of the Press...presently.

I simply ask the question...WHY ARE THEY WRONG?

Not that I have anything against Mike Trout. The guy is a Prince as far as I can tell. He’s the best face-of-baseball we’ve had since Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter roamed the infield and gave us reason to BELIEVE again after various drug eras and strike-cancelled World Series poisoned the Well.

But he’s not the GOAT….not yet. He may get there if he has as good a second half to his career as his first half was, but there is a mountain to climb.

For the purpose of this exercise we will used the much debated judging stat called WAR.

WAR is a criticized but commonly used measuring stick for overall value and level of talent in baseball. Very briefly, WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. That is, if you had to replace any given player with an acceptable replacement, how many games would the team be expected to win or lose over or under the wins provided by said player.

The good thing about WAR is that it incorporates offense, defense (including adjustments for importance of position), park effects and the prevailing performance climate of the game so you can compare players from different eras and have it make some sort of sense.

Examples: how does New York Giants outfielder Mel Ott, playing in the hitter’s era of the 20’s and 30’s in his home park of the Polo Grounds with its right field wall only 258 feet from the plate but with a 483 foot trek to centerfield stand up against George Brett, the slick third baseman of the hitting- deficient 1970’s and 80’s playing for the Kansas City Royals on the astroturf of cavernous Kaufmann Stadium? (ANSWER: strangely similar level of all around excellence. Ott hit more homers but Brett had higher averages. That’s mostly park effects...Brett would have had much higher hom run totals in another home park. But the astroturf helped his average a lot with those speedy bounces through the infield. They both walked a lot more than they struck out, but Brett did it in a higher strike out era. They were both excellent defenders but Brett played well at a more important position. Brett had a few more seasons playing at a super-star level but Ott had many more at an overall All Star caliber mark. They are both Gold Plated Hall of Famers without doubt.)

Example 2: Pedro Martinez of the hit-happy steroid 1990’s versus Sandy Koufax of the feeble-hitting 60’s? (ANSWER: They each had 5 of the all- time most dominant MVP-worthy seasons ever recorded by a pitcher but Pedro had another 7 seasons pitching at an All Star level. Koufax pitched in one of the worst park for hitters off a high mound in a league that couldn’t score. Martinez did his work in a great offensive climate mostly in one of the best hitter’s parks of all time. Nolo Contendre….it’s Pedro by a Mile. Koufax was awe inspiring...it’s just that Martinez laps him. He was that good and he lasted longer.

WAR has its problems for sure. For one thing, there is some question about how defensive performance is evaluated in light of the fact that some teams have a pitching staff that mostly gives up ground balls and another features high strikeouts and fly balls. How much of that defensive evaluation should be credited to the fielder and how much is just a coincidence of different pitching tendencies? How do you evaluate and assign a WAR number to a catcher who calls a great game and frames pitches like a magician ...like Yadier Molina? Catchers in WAR wind up being quantified mostly on the basis of hitting and runners thrown out and passed balls given up. That’s pretty sketchy and not at all indicative of why a catcher is so valuable. At least WAR assigns a positional value (in some barely decipherable formulaic way) of +12.5 to catchers as opposed to -7.5 to left or right fielders.

Well, there’s no absolutely all-encompassing foolproof stat. Let’s work with the tools available. Here’s a table that gives an approximation of what the numbers mean: (below zero scores occur but players who can’t break 0 rarely last very long at the major league level) There is barely a difference between players 1 point difference, but an easily recognizable level change between players 2 or more points separate.

WAR 0-1: basic level of a scrub

WAR 1-2: role player

WAR 2-3: solid starter

WAR 3-4: good player

WAR 4-5: All Star

WAR 5-6: Super Star

WAR 6+: MVP level player

WAR 8+: persistent MVP and Hall of Fame level player

Players like the above referenced Ott and Brett had top seasons of 9s, 10s and 11s and a bunch of 6’s to 8’s.

Pitchers like Pedro and Sandy K. had a couple of 10-11 years and another bunch of 6 to 9’s. (Pedro had many more of the latter)

Anything over 10 is at the top level of the game. The all time high for an offensive player is Babe Ruth’s 14.1 in 1923. (The Babe had 5 of the top ten WAR seasons of all time...6 out of ten if you kick out Barry Bonds...like I am.)

Mike Trout is tied for 31^st highest WAR of all time at 10.5 in 2 seasons...2012 and 2016.

Players with multiple seasons with a WAR of 10.5 or higher:

Ruth: 6

Mays: 6

Williams: 3

Mantle: 3

Cobb: 3

Musial: 2

Hornsby: 2

Yastrzemski: 2

Trout is hardly the best of all time by the measure of highest WAR seasons.

Let’s look at a certain level of greatness, because there is no doubt that Trout is one of the best of all time by this measure. I have picked an arbitrary number of WAR 8+ to measure the worth of an undeniable superstar- Hall of Famer- perennially- MVP- qualified player.

WAR 8 is a level reached by an offensive player only 296 times in all baseball since 1900. (The game was just too different with the 45 foot pitching distance, shorter seasons, too dead balls or too lively balls etc. to include nineteenth century stats) This level is almost exclusively reserved for Hall of Famers. You’ll get the occasional freak year by an Eddie Stanky (WAR 8 in 1950... he walked a whole lot), but for the most part it’s a roster of consensus greatest - of- all- time kinds of players. Each of these seasons represents a year in which the achieving player would be a very strong contender for the MVP (which didn’t exist for a lot of years before the 1930s.)

Mike Trout has reached the WAR 8 mark or above 6 times already in his career. And he’s only 27 so he’s definitely on pace to be a GOAT contender by this measure if he stays healthy.

Other 6+ time WAR 8+ offensive players:

Ruth: 12 times

Mays: 11

Hornsby: 9

Aaron: 8

Gehrig: 7

Williams: 7

Musial: 7

Wagner: 7

Cobb: 7

Speaker: 6

Eddie Collins: 6

Pujols: 6

*Mickey Mantle and Nap Lajoie were very close with 5 each.

**notice the achievements of the dead ball era hitters Speaker, Cobb, Wagner and Collins. These guys achieved their WAR totals without benefit of the many home runs that would be hit by players of later eras. They boosted their scores with stolen bases and good defense.

***I disqualified Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. So sue me. (They are at 10 and 8 respectively)

**** Ted Williams missed most of 5 seasons fighting for his country in WWII and the Korean “Conflict”. I don’t think it’s fair to deny him at least 4 seasons of WAR 8+ considering that he scored above 10 in several seasons both before and after his adventures as a fighter pilot. Nobody gets credit for injury time, but those wars were different.

Stan Musial missed 1 full season during WWII as well and Willie Mays missed almost 2 full seasons while in the army early in his career. It’s probably fair to credit both with 1 additional WAR 8 season.

Players like Hank Greenberg and Johnny Mize also missed 3-4 seasons with war service in the hearts of their careers and would have likely put up WAR 8 seasons playing in their prime. Joe Dimaggio had 3 WAR 8 seasons and missed 3 full years during WWII during the peak of his career. These men and their reputations as exceptional players shouldn’t be forgotten in light of their service to their country. Well done!

As far as our Mike Trout comparisons:

On the basis of number of MVP type seasons attained, Mike is right up there with the best. I think it’s likely he’ll sail on passed everybody but Ted Williams (7 seasons of 8+ WAR and a probable 11 if he hadn’t fought in the wars), Willie Mays (11 and a probable 12 if he hadn’t been drafted) and Babe Ruth.

If he puts up another 6 WAR 8+ seasons he’ll tie The Babe for all time leader.

That’s all projection of course, and who knows Fate? As far as the general prevailing assumption of history, Trout is a great all-around player who is on track to being close to the best of all time. Let’s do the 5 tool comparisons...hitting, hitting for power, running, fielding, throwing.

Cobb was a better (certainly more statistically dangerous) base stealer and better hitter for average. Trout has more power than Cobb, even if you adjust like crazy for Cobb’s dead ball era. Let’s call them even as defensive players.

Tris Speaker was one of the best defensive outfielders of all time. Give him the nod in throwing and fielding and probably hitting. Trout takes running and power.

Gehrig could have been a better power hitter and was probably a better hitter overall. He wasn’t close in the other three categories.

Musial was a better hitter. Trout has him otherwise.

Hornsby got rich hitting in small NL ballparks of the 20’s. He was not on Mike’s level as a fielder, thrower or runner.

Mike Trout is a much better all around player than Ted Williams was. There, I’ve said it. Williams lost a lot of WAR points with penalties for weak fielding and running. But he was one of the two best hitters...ever.

We’ll have to see if Mike Trout can reach the stratosphere of Hank Aaron as an all-timer. Aaron is one of the most respected stars of baseball history and he played so consistently and largely injury free.

Trout plays a more important defensive position and plays it well. Throwing even. Running even. Henry Aaron was an insane hitting machine and power hitter. Trout has more raw power but Henry hit it over the fence just as often. Aaron didn’t strike out nearly as much. It all depends on how Mike holds up for the next decade. I’m not prepared to say that Mike Trout is better than Henry Aaron.

He’s not any better than Mickey Mantle either, even though Trout already has more 8+ WAR seasons at age 27. That’s largely a factor of Mantle’s many injuries, but it still counts. Trout reached those heights of value while Mick was on the pine healing a lot. But at their best, Mickey Mantle was a better thrower and hitter . I’ll say Trout is a slightly better fielder. He couldn’t stand with Mantle as a raw power hitter. Mantle hit some of the longest home runs ever seen. Mantle was also one of the fastest base runners of all time...at the beginning of his career. Remember that Mickey had 3 seasons with higher WARs than Trout has achieved. It’s just the injuries that separate them so far.

Willie Mays had 6 seasons of WAR 10.5 or higher. After he got out of the army at age 23 Willie played 13 consecutive seasons of at least 152 games played. Willie played in a cold, windy Candlestick Park that dampened offense to say the least. If he had played his home games in any other park of his day except maybe Chavez Ravine and not missed those early seasons when he got drafted, Willie would have broken Ruth’s home run record before Aaron. He still wound up with 660!

Power: Willie. Over 35 homers 10 times (Trout 4 so far) and 2 seasons over 50 (Trout zero...and remember he is hitting in the all time best home run hitting era).

Hitting for average: Willie...especially since he played most of his career in the 60’s when pitching was dominant.

Running: Willie led the NL in steals 4 times. (Trout 1 so far.) He was one of the best base runners anybody ever saw.

Defense: Willie is widely considered the best center fielder of all time. Remember Durocher’s quote: “If Jesus Christ came down from heaven and played center field, I’d still look you in the eye and tell you Willie was better.”

Throwing: Willie’s arm was the stuff of legend...much stronger than Trout’s.

Mike may have more MVPs than Willie, but there is no way Mike Trout is greater than Willie Mays in any 5-tool category.

Ditto that for Honus Wagner. Although it is really hard to see through the mists of time and evaluate the old guys like Honus, the best baseball eye-witnesses of the day called him the GOAT. Just remember that even though he played in the deadest of dead ball eras where home runs hit over some (usually non-existent) fence were a mere rumor, Wagner led the league in slugging many times and led in doubles and triples often. He was considered the most powerful bat of his day. He led the league in steals 5 times, average 7 times, OPS 8 times. I mean the guy dominated his league offensively. Not only that but he played shortstop and was the best. And his arm was legendary...they used to move him into the outfield when a sac fly would beat them because nobody could score from third on his arm! Only Babe Ruth ever dominated his league like Honus Wagner did. With the possible exception of power hitting, Honus rules over Mike Trout in 5 tool categories.

That leaves Babe Ruth. Poor old Babe! Everybody sees those old films of a fat guy mincing around the bases waving his hat and think he was a joke. Yeah...he was joke all right. I won’t even bother to list stats with him. I already mentioned above that he has 6 of the TOP TEN WARs of ALL TIME. Just think of what that really means. And one further small detail...besides the 12 years of WAR 8+ as an offensive player, the Babe gets one more for a WAR 8.8 as a pitcher in 1916! Trout is definitely a better runner and fielder than the “Caliph of Clout” ever was. It don’t matter none, as they say. Ruth dominated baseball with his bat and his arm and nobody else ever came close to doing that.

Thanks for the attention and drop me an email if you want to register your thoughts.

Next time: THE ALL-TIME ALL STAR PITCHING STAFF