MARCO’S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2020: GREATEST OF ALL TIME?
I am NOT going to talk about
the Houston Disastros or the 2020 “Garbage Can Commemorative
Bloodbath-Bang” Tour they are about to endure this coming season.
My lips are sealed! (Collective sigh of relief from you readers, I am
sure.)
I am NOT going to talk about
the trade of Mookie Betts and David Price from the
Boston Furball - Gaggers to the Los Angeles Tinsel Towners. (
Collective exclamation of “Thank God” from same.)
No...let’s crawl back in our
hole and find a happy place and suck our thumbs and nourish ourselves
with the warm milk of appreciation of baseball heroes present and
past. Leave those bad boogies in the closet where they can scare you
but not demand your immediate attention. (Except you Dodger Fans who
I am sure are pre-celebrating your 2020 World Championship. Party On
Dudes!)
It’s Spring Training and we
need Solace.
So, for this exercise in
distraction, let us take up the case of Mike Trout. Is he
indeed the Greatest of All-Time (G.O.A.T.) of all baseball….past,
present and future?
This is the poetically
proposed and pulsatingly pounded premise being prepared by Pundits of
the Press...presently.
I simply ask the
question...WHY ARE THEY WRONG?
Not that I have anything
against Mike Trout. The guy is a Prince as far as I can tell. He’s
the best face-of-baseball we’ve had since Cal Ripken and Derek
Jeter roamed the infield and gave us reason to BELIEVE again after
various drug eras and strike-cancelled World Series poisoned the
Well.
But he’s not the GOAT….not
yet. He may get there if he has as good a second half to his career
as his first half was, but there is a mountain to climb.
For the purpose of this
exercise we will used the much debated judging stat called WAR.
WAR is a criticized but
commonly used measuring stick for overall value and level of talent
in baseball. Very briefly, WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement.
That is, if you had to replace any given player with an acceptable
replacement, how many games would the team be expected to win or lose
over or under the wins provided by said player.
The good thing about WAR is
that it incorporates offense, defense (including adjustments for
importance of position), park effects and the prevailing performance
climate of the game so you can compare players from different eras
and have it make some sort of sense.
Examples: how does New York
Giants outfielder Mel Ott, playing in the hitter’s era of
the 20’s and 30’s in his home park of the Polo Grounds with its
right field wall only 258 feet from the plate but with a 483 foot
trek to centerfield stand up against George Brett, the slick
third baseman of the hitting- deficient 1970’s and 80’s playing
for the Kansas City Royals on the astroturf of cavernous Kaufmann
Stadium? (ANSWER: strangely similar level of all around excellence.
Ott hit more homers but Brett had higher averages. That’s mostly
park effects...Brett would have had much higher hom run totals in
another home park. But the astroturf helped his average a lot with
those speedy bounces through the infield. They both walked a lot more
than they struck out, but Brett did it in a higher strike out era.
They were both excellent defenders but Brett played well at a more
important position. Brett had a few more seasons playing at a
super-star level but Ott had many more at an overall All Star caliber
mark. They are both Gold Plated Hall of Famers without doubt.)
Example 2: Pedro Martinez
of the hit-happy steroid 1990’s versus Sandy Koufax of the
feeble-hitting 60’s? (ANSWER: They each had 5 of the all- time most
dominant MVP-worthy seasons ever recorded by a pitcher but Pedro had
another 7 seasons pitching at an All Star level. Koufax pitched in
one of the worst park for hitters off a high mound in a league that
couldn’t score. Martinez did his work in a great offensive climate
mostly in one of the best hitter’s parks of all time. Nolo
Contendre….it’s Pedro by a Mile. Koufax was awe inspiring...it’s
just that Martinez laps him. He was that good and he lasted longer.
WAR has its problems for sure.
For one thing, there is some question about how defensive performance
is evaluated in light of the fact that some teams have a pitching
staff that mostly gives up ground balls and another features high
strikeouts and fly balls. How much of that defensive evaluation
should be credited to the fielder and how much is just a coincidence
of different pitching tendencies? How do you evaluate and assign a
WAR number to a catcher who calls a great game and frames pitches
like a magician ...like Yadier Molina? Catchers in WAR wind up
being quantified mostly on the basis of hitting and runners thrown
out and passed balls given up. That’s pretty sketchy and not at all
indicative of why a catcher is so valuable. At least WAR assigns a
positional value (in some barely decipherable formulaic way) of +12.5
to catchers as opposed to -7.5 to left or right fielders.
Well, there’s no absolutely
all-encompassing foolproof stat. Let’s work with the tools
available. Here’s a table that gives an approximation of what the
numbers mean: (below zero scores occur but players who can’t break
0 rarely last very long at the major league level) There is barely a
difference between players 1 point difference, but an easily
recognizable level change between players 2 or more points separate.
WAR 0-1: basic level of a
scrub
WAR 1-2: role player
WAR 2-3: solid starter
WAR 3-4: good player
WAR 4-5: All Star
WAR 5-6: Super Star
WAR 6+: MVP level player
WAR 8+: persistent MVP and
Hall of Fame level player
Players like the above
referenced Ott and Brett had top seasons of 9s, 10s and 11s and a
bunch of 6’s to 8’s.
Pitchers like Pedro and Sandy
K. had a couple of 10-11 years and another bunch of 6 to 9’s.
(Pedro had many more of the latter)
Anything over 10 is at the top
level of the game. The all time high for an offensive player is Babe
Ruth’s 14.1 in 1923. (The Babe had 5 of the top ten WAR seasons
of all time...6 out of ten if you kick out Barry Bonds...like I am.)
Mike Trout is tied for 31st
highest WAR of all time at 10.5 in 2 seasons...2012 and 2016.
Players with multiple seasons
with a WAR of 10.5 or higher:
Ruth:
6
Mays:
6
Williams:
3
Mantle:
3
Cobb:
3
Musial:
2
Hornsby:
2
Yastrzemski:
2
Trout is hardly the best of
all time by the measure of highest WAR seasons.
Let’s look at a certain
level of greatness, because there is no doubt that Trout is one of
the best of all time by this measure. I have picked an arbitrary
number of WAR 8+ to measure the worth of an undeniable superstar-
Hall of Famer- perennially- MVP- qualified player.
WAR 8 is a level reached by an
offensive player only 296 times in all baseball since 1900. (The
game was just too different with the 45 foot pitching distance,
shorter seasons, too dead balls or too lively balls etc. to include
nineteenth century stats) This level is almost exclusively reserved
for Hall of Famers. You’ll get the occasional freak year by an
Eddie Stanky (WAR 8 in 1950... he walked a whole lot), but for
the most part it’s a roster of consensus greatest - of- all- time
kinds of players. Each of these seasons represents a year in which
the achieving player would be a very strong contender for the MVP
(which didn’t exist for a lot of years before the 1930s.)
Mike Trout has reached the WAR
8 mark or above 6 times already in his career. And he’s only 27 so
he’s definitely on pace to be a GOAT contender by this measure if
he stays healthy.
Other 6+ time WAR 8+ offensive
players:
Ruth:
12 times
Mays:
11
Hornsby:
9
Aaron:
8
Gehrig:
7
Williams:
7
Musial:
7
Wagner:
7
Cobb:
7
Speaker:
6
Eddie
Collins: 6
Pujols:
6
*Mickey Mantle and Nap
Lajoie were very close with 5 each.
**notice the achievements of
the dead ball era hitters Speaker, Cobb, Wagner and
Collins. These guys achieved their WAR totals without benefit of
the many home runs that would be hit by players of later eras. They
boosted their scores with stolen bases and good defense.
***I disqualified Barry Bonds
and Alex Rodriguez. So sue me. (They are at 10 and 8 respectively)
**** Ted Williams
missed most of 5 seasons fighting for his country in WWII and the
Korean “Conflict”. I don’t think it’s fair to deny him at
least 4 seasons of WAR 8+ considering that he scored above 10 in
several seasons both before and after his adventures as a fighter
pilot. Nobody gets credit for injury time, but those wars were
different.
Stan Musial
missed 1 full season during WWII as well and Willie Mays
missed almost 2 full seasons while in the army early in his career.
It’s probably fair to credit both with 1 additional WAR 8 season.
Players like Hank Greenberg
and Johnny Mize also missed 3-4 seasons with war service
in the hearts of their careers and would have likely put up WAR 8
seasons playing in their prime. Joe Dimaggio had 3 WAR 8
seasons and missed 3 full years during WWII during the peak of his
career. These men and their reputations as exceptional players
shouldn’t be forgotten in light of their service to their country.
Well done!
As far as our Mike Trout
comparisons:
On the basis of number of MVP
type seasons attained, Mike is right up there with the best. I think
it’s likely he’ll sail on passed everybody but Ted Williams (7
seasons of 8+ WAR and a probable 11 if he hadn’t fought in the
wars), Willie Mays (11 and a probable 12 if he hadn’t been drafted)
and Babe Ruth.
If he puts up another 6 WAR 8+
seasons he’ll tie The Babe for all time leader.
That’s all projection of
course, and who knows Fate? As far as the general prevailing
assumption of history, Trout is a great all-around player who is on
track to being close to the best of all time. Let’s do the 5 tool
comparisons...hitting, hitting for power, running, fielding,
throwing.
Cobb was a better
(certainly more statistically dangerous) base stealer and better
hitter for average. Trout has more power than Cobb, even if you
adjust like crazy for Cobb’s dead ball era. Let’s call them even
as defensive players.
Tris Speaker was one of
the best defensive outfielders of all time. Give him the nod in
throwing and fielding and probably hitting. Trout takes running and
power.
Gehrig could have been
a better power hitter and was probably a better hitter overall. He
wasn’t close in the other three categories.
Musial was a better
hitter. Trout has him otherwise.
Hornsby got rich
hitting in small NL ballparks of the 20’s. He was not on Mike’s
level as a fielder, thrower or runner.
Mike Trout is a much better
all around player than Ted Williams was. There, I’ve said
it. Williams lost a lot of WAR points with penalties for weak
fielding and running. But he was one of the two best hitters...ever.
We’ll have to see if Mike
Trout can reach the stratosphere of Hank Aaron as an
all-timer. Aaron is one of the most respected stars of baseball
history and he played so consistently and largely injury free.
Trout plays a more important
defensive position and plays it well. Throwing even. Running even.
Henry Aaron was an insane hitting machine and power hitter. Trout has
more raw power but Henry hit it over the fence just as often. Aaron
didn’t strike out nearly as much. It all depends on how Mike holds
up for the next decade. I’m not prepared to say that Mike Trout is
better than Henry Aaron.
He’s not any better than
Mickey Mantle either, even though Trout already has more 8+
WAR seasons at age 27. That’s largely a factor of Mantle’s many
injuries, but it still counts. Trout reached those heights of value
while Mick was on the pine healing a lot. But at their best, Mickey
Mantle was a better thrower and hitter . I’ll say Trout is a
slightly better fielder. He couldn’t stand with Mantle as a raw
power hitter. Mantle hit some of the longest home runs ever seen.
Mantle was also one of the fastest base runners of all time...at the
beginning of his career. Remember that Mickey had 3 seasons with
higher WARs than Trout has achieved. It’s just the injuries that
separate them so far.
Willie Mays had 6
seasons of WAR 10.5 or higher. After he got out of the army at age
23 Willie played 13 consecutive seasons of at least 152 games played.
Willie played in a cold, windy Candlestick Park that dampened offense
to say the least. If he had played his home games in any other park
of his day except maybe Chavez Ravine and not missed those early
seasons when he got drafted, Willie would have broken Ruth’s home
run record before Aaron. He still wound up with 660!
Power: Willie. Over 35 homers
10 times (Trout 4 so far) and 2 seasons over 50 (Trout zero...and
remember he is hitting in the all time best home run hitting era).
Hitting for average:
Willie...especially since he played most of his career in the 60’s
when pitching was dominant.
Running: Willie led the NL in
steals 4 times. (Trout 1 so far.) He was one of the best base runners
anybody ever saw.
Defense: Willie is widely
considered the best center fielder of all time. Remember Durocher’s
quote: “If Jesus Christ came down from heaven and played center
field, I’d still look you in the eye and tell you Willie was
better.”
Throwing: Willie’s arm was
the stuff of legend...much stronger than Trout’s.
Mike may have more MVPs than
Willie, but there is no way Mike Trout is greater than Willie Mays in
any 5-tool category.
Ditto that for Honus
Wagner. Although it is really hard to see through the mists of
time and evaluate the old guys like Honus, the best baseball
eye-witnesses of the day called him the GOAT. Just remember that even
though he played in the deadest of dead ball eras where home runs hit
over some (usually non-existent) fence were a mere rumor, Wagner led
the league in slugging many times and led in doubles and triples
often. He was considered the most powerful bat of his day. He led the
league in steals 5 times, average 7 times, OPS 8 times. I mean the
guy dominated his league offensively. Not only that but he played
shortstop and was the best. And his arm was legendary...they used to
move him into the outfield when a sac fly would beat them because
nobody could score from third on his arm! Only Babe Ruth ever
dominated his league like Honus Wagner did. With the possible
exception of power hitting, Honus rules over Mike Trout in 5 tool
categories.
That leaves Babe Ruth.
Poor old Babe! Everybody sees those old films of a fat guy mincing
around the bases waving his hat and think he was a joke. Yeah...he
was joke all right. I won’t even bother to list stats with him. I
already mentioned above that he has 6 of the TOP TEN WARs of ALL
TIME. Just think of what that really means. And one further small
detail...besides the 12 years of WAR 8+ as an offensive player, the
Babe gets one more for a WAR 8.8 as a pitcher in 1916! Trout is
definitely a better runner and fielder than the “Caliph of Clout”
ever was. It don’t matter none, as they say. Ruth dominated
baseball with his bat and his arm and nobody else ever came close to
doing that.
Thanks for the attention and
drop me an email if you want to register your thoughts.
Next time: THE ALL-TIME ALL
STAR PITCHING STAFF
