Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2018: NINE REASONS...

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: NINE REASONS…

... WHY THE RED SOX WILL WIN THE WORLD SERIES

1/ Hot Hitters. The Red Sox just carved up the team with the best bullpen in baseball (New York Yankees) and the team with the best starting staff in baseball (Houston Astros). The Dodgers' staff is good, but not as good as either of those two teams. The hallmark of hot hitters is hitting with two strikes and hitting with two outs. A lot of Sox hitters have been coming through in those situations a lot of the time in the Playoffs.

2/Too many K's. The Dodgers play “Big Swing” baseball. They don't care if they strike out a lot as long as they hit a homer every now and then. Against good pitching they can go very cold. Against the Brewers good staff they had more strike outs than hits.

The Red Sox had more hits than strike outs in the ALCS against one of the best strike out rotations of all time. (Verlander, Cole, Morton, Keuchel plus McCullers)

3/Fenway Park. Fenway is the weirdest park in the majors, especially the outfield. None of the Dodger outfielders have ever played there. The Red Sox have a great outfield who know the strange bounces in right field (the Pesky Pole), left field (remember the ball bouncing like a demented rat down the padding on Bradley Jrs. double in ALCS game two?), the odd triangle in center where Bradley's glove is where triples go to die and of course the famous Green Monster where Benitendi is an expert playing the caroms. Good luck to the Dodger left fielders trying to get used to the Wall. Also, with almost no foul ground down the lines, its easy for outfielders who don't have the feel of the field (sorry) to go crashing into walls chasing shots down the line.

4/ Bring out your Southpaws. The Dodger pitching rotation features three lefties. The Red Sox have killed lefties all year. And lefties have to know how to deal with right handed power hitters in Fenway. They have to learn to prevent them from pulling bombs. The Dodger pitchers just haven't had the experience at Fenway.

5/Mookie Betts is due. The Red Sox just murdered two of the best teams in baseball with their best player and presumptive league MVP batting .205.

6/Tired Bullpen. The Dodgers have a good pen but they overused it getting through the Milwaukee series. The Red Sox used their's too, but didn't have the work load that the Dodgers did. Also, it's hard to imagine Craig Kimbrel, the Sox closer, pitching any worse. He was evidently tipping his breaking balls and hitters could lay off. His control of his fastball was also way off. He did better in Game 5 against Houston. Maybe he'll be back in balance.

Alex Cora has fearlessly used his starters as strategic relief specialists. Sale, Price, Porcello and especially Eovaldi have all made effective relief appearances to muscle up the Sox bullpen. It hasn't affected their next starts very much and they helped the Sox win some games.

Dave Roberts has used Kershaw and his other starters out of the pen too, but it seems to have taxed them a little bit more.

7/Catching. The Dodgers had to sit Yasmani Grandal (love that name) after a 2 error, 3 passed ball game cost Kershaw. Barnes is better defensively but not as good offensively. They are now afraid to even play Grandal. The Red Sox don't depend on their catchers for offense. But both Sox catchers...Vasquez and Leon... are great blocking pitches in the dirt, throwing and calling the game. The main thing is, the Sox can rotate their catchers without worrying about defense in tight ballgames.

8/Offensive philosophy. The Dodgers are updated and Twenty-First Century...everybody go into launch mode and don't stop hacking. The Sox take walks, hit grounders through the holes and don't always hit into the shift. They are very early Twentieth Century with bunts, hit and runs (which are almost extinct in modern baseball) and lots of steals. And they still led baseball in extra base hits, average, runs etc. etc.

It's a winning philosophy in the current environment because they can hit velocity and keep pressure on teams with lots of runners on base.

9/”Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics”. That's a famous quote from Mark Twain and it applies to these two teams. Don't listen to people who say these two teams are “so even”. The Dodgers had a stacked lineup and got one of the best players in baseball (Machado) to help them in the stretch. Even with a MUCH better pitching staff, they barely won a fairly weak division (flawed Colorado and Arizona, crippled San Francisco and rebuilding San Diego). The general level of competition in the National League was much lower this year and the Dodgers should have hammered teams. They didn't.

The Red Sox faced another 100-win team in their division in the Yanks and the team with the best record in baseball in the second half in Tampa Bay plus an outclassed but scrappy

team in Toronto in their division. They had one patsy in Baltimore. The American League had very dangerous teams this season...Cleveland, Houston, Oakland and Seattle.

The Red Sox won going away with a record 108 wins. Boston is obviously the better team.

The Series will be decided by these factors:

1/Top starters. Kershaw is a little better than Sale coming off injury. Rookie Walker Buehler (the Dodgers only rightie starter) with his good stuff is probably even with a newly resurrected David Price. But Eovaldi has found his confidence and with that fastball is much tougher than either Ryu or Rich Hill as a third starter. Porcello is at least even with whichever of those two Dodgers pitches the other game.

2/Right handed sluggers. Manny Machado and Justin “Yard Gnome” Turner are consistently dangerous hitters from the right side. The Boston lefties have to negotiate them.

Betts and J.D. Martinez are murderous against lefties. Which pair of sluggers will have the better series?

3/The strangely inconsistent secondary hitters. The Dodgers have Bellinger who can rake with the best but struck out 17 times in the post season last year. They have Puig who for some reason can't hit lefties at all, can scare you to death with his opposite field power or can go into a complete hitting miasma of swinging at unhittable sliders in the dirt. Max Muncy is another player who can kill you one day and wear golden sombreros of 4 strike-out-games the next.

The Beantowners have their own cadre of mystery hitters. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a perfect example. He batted barely Mendoza level in the regular season and hit only .200 in the Playoffs, yet was the playoff MVP with 9 ribbies on 3 huge, game winning hits. Eduardo Nunez plays alternately brilliant and Strange-glovian defense and alternately hits really bad pitches for extra base hits when he's not grounding into double plays. Rafael Devers is a goofy kid who hits like he doesn't have a conscience and seems to enjoy striking out as much as he enjoys hitting long bombs.

Who gets hot and who tanks?

4/Extra first sackers. L.A. brings out former Series MVP David Freese to play against left-handed pitchers and play first base. He's dangerous and often overlooked. Steve Pearce has played way above his head this post season and a lot more than he expected because of Mitch Moreland's leg injury.

These are the kinds of guys who can surprise you in a short series.

5/Platoons. Casey Stengel would be proud. Both of these teams are skillful platooners. Alex Cora uses two catchers, two second basemen (Kinsler, Brock Holt) and even three if Mookie plays some second base in L.A. to keep J.D. Martinez in the lineup. He also mixes Nunez in with Devers at third and Moreland with Pearce at first. Each of the three main Bosox outfielders can play great center field when required.

Dave Roberts has one of the most versatile lineups ever, with 7 players playing double digit games at second base. (Logan Forsyth, Chase Utley, Max Muncy, Austin Barnes, Brian Dozier, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor). Bellinger shifted from center field to first base which is weird and Hernandez and Taylor hopped around from outfield to infield all year. It's really hard to get an advantage against the Dodgers versatility in the platooning department.

Milwaukee tried the “Lie like a dog” starting pitcher gambit: they announced left-hander Miley as a starter, then pitched him to one batter and brought in the right hander to foil the right handed Dodger lineup for that game. Roberts didn't sweat it, he just moved a guy from there to here and brought in one new player and adjusted.

Who gets the Cecil Tovar* Memorial Versatility award?

*(an almost forgotten but very good player who manned all the infield and outfield positions for Minnesota back in the late sixties and seventies. He's one of only six players to have played all nine positions in a single game. I know it's just a stunt, but Tovar was truly versatile.)

This series will probably come down to some big confrontations:

David Price will have to pitch to Manny Machado with the tying runs on base.

Kenley Jansen has to pitch to a wild child like Rafy Devers after intentionally walking Martinez.

Or Craig Kimbrel stares out of his red-beard-pre-wind-up-crouch at Justin Turner's red-beard-batting stance in an Epic, “Night of the Yard Gnomes” moment.

Sox in Six!

Enjoy the Torment!

And Happy Halloween!

--Marco

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2018: MLB PLayoffs...Sublime to Ridiculous

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: MLB PLAYOFFS...FROM SUBLIME TO RIDICULOUS

Game 4 in the AL Playoffs between Houston and Boston: SUBLIME.

Game 4 in the NL Playoffs between Los Angeles and Milwaukee: RIDICULOUS.

That's the gist of it. Let me defend my thesis:

Houston and Boston are similar teams. They feature relentless offense. 1-9 the Bostonians can pummel you. (Well, maybe not the catchers Vasquez and Sandy Leon, but even they run into one now and again and I actually witnessed Vasquez executing a perfect hit-and-run to right field the other day. Mostly he and Sandy are bad hitters. Real bad. But they're so good at defense you have to forgive them.)

The Houstonians are maybe even better 1-9 than Boston. They tend to go for the homer a little more often but if you played in Minute Maid Park you would too.

Both teams have great personality, confidence and plate discipline.

The differences are Houston has great starters and a better bullpen. Boston has delicate starters and suspect bullpen guys. Or at least that was the general impression going in. Also, the Astros have terrific infield defense and the Sox have terrific outfield defense. Anyway, these teams looked pretty even going into the series except for pitching. So naturally I picked Houston.

The Astros came out banging and the Red Sox didn't. The Sox looked understandably rusty after a long week's layoff. The 'Stros had a shorter time to wait and they came out hotter. Also, the Astros have old pro and resurrected Ace Justin Verlander to trance-dance (No kidding! That's what he does! Nobody can hardly talk to him all week!) his way through an excellent outing. Chris Sale is as good or better than Justin when he's healthy, but he had shoulder problems late in the season and hasn't gotten his strength back. Or his fastball. The Astros take Game 1 in Fenway and look strong.

But the Bosox got a couple of doubles from Mookie Betts and a miraculous bases loaded double off the wall from Jackie Bradley Jr. of all people and surprised the Astros and their other great starter Gerrit Cole in Game 2.

The Bosox starter David Price looked bad as usual but the much maligned Boston bullpen pitched great and kept the Astros from rallying. Except for their closer, Kid Heart Attack Kimbrel. He's a mess right now. Can't find the plate with either fastball or breaking pitch. He gave up an rbi single to Altuve in the ninth and then had Alex Bregman (who the Red Sox are walking or hitting with pitches instead of letting him get any good swings) hit a fly to the base of the wall for out 3.

In Game 3 the Bosox brought out their new gun, Nathan Eovaldi from Alvin, Texas and he channeled Nolan Ryan (who was sitting behind home plate) and busted several 100mph pitches passed the startled Astros.

Maybe Bregman shouldn't have instagrammed that video of the 'Stros hitting 4 homers off Nathan when Eovaldi was playing for Tampa Bay? Didn't they notice what the Bosox did after Aaron Judge tickled their chin with his boom box rendition of 'New York, New York' after the Yankees won a game at Boston in the Division Playoff? Keep teasing them. They seem to like it.

This time Bradley pulled a Grand Slam out of his ample heinie and bitter, surprising defeat for Houston ensued. Boston wins 8-2 and goes up 2 games to 1 in the series.

Now the Sox know they will be going back to Fenway unless they sweep the Astros at home (which seems highly unlikely).

Game 4 turned into the most entertaining game of the season that I saw. It's right up there with Game 5 of last year's epic contest with the Dodgers and the Astros in Houston. Of course, Houston fans won't agree, but remember I picked Houston to win this series, even though I am a permanently scarred Red Sox fan since boyhood. (So that makes me unbiased and objective!)

The top of the Bosox lineup again came through with Betts getting hit by the curveballer, rusty Charlie Morton, and Andrew Benintendi moving him over on a right side grounder. The Red Sox have been doing that a lot. Playing basic baseball and not trying to hit a damn home run every swing. (Maybe the Dodgers and Brewers will take notes!) J.D. Martinez hasn't gotten but a couple of big hits in this series, but he's had long at bats, singles and walks to keep the line moving. He walks here and then Bogaerts strikes out on some great pitches by Morton. The runners advance to second and third on a passed ball by Astros Maldonado. (Aside: Maldonado won a gold glove and it's just absurd to even compare him to the Red Sox catchers when it comes to blocking pitches in the dirt. Maldonado has an awesome arm, but he has bad footwork and turns his glove the wrong way over and over on curveballs in the dirt. Vasquez and Leon do a much better job of helping out their pitchers by blocking those dirtballs. These guys are doing the most important work for a catcher, that's why they're still in the lineup even when they hit .180!)

First big moment of the game here in the top of the first and...Baby Bull Rafael Devers actually cuts down on his insanely huge swing and hits a single to left to score two! (That's the other thing...the Sox swing from the heels early in the count like everybody else, but they tend to cut down and just try to meet the ball with two strikes a lot more often than most of the hotshot hitters we've got today. Thanks to Alex Cora for that. He insists on using bunts, the hit and run, more stolen bases and especially 'productive outs' to keep adding runs. That's why the Sox led the majors in scoring, not because they homered a whole lot more than everybody else.)

Bottom of the 1^st and the 'Stros come right back. Bregman gets a hit and then Altuve swats one into the first row of the right field pavilion. Except Betts leaps high, high into the air and gets his glove on it. I hope you saw this instantly famous play, because it's hard to describe it. Umpire Joe West called it fan interference...Altuve is out.

The pundits mostly said it should have been a homer because Betts' glove was over the edge of the wall into the stands when the fan's hands hit his glove. Here's how I saw it:

!/The front row fans...mainly 3 guys...had their hands over the edge of the fence in the field of play waiting to catch the ball.

2/Betts went up in the field of play and HIS GLOVE MADE CONTACT WITH SEVERAL HANDS IN THE FIELD OF PLAY.

3/The fans pulled their hands back out of the field of play as the ball came down aiming right for the heart of Betts' glove, and…

4/there was CONTACT between the glove and at least 5 hands, even if the contact was OUT OF THE FIELD OF PLAY. But…

5/some of the fans' arms and hands were still hanging over the fence in the field of play even though they weren't making contact with Betts at that moment.

6/so what is the intent of the rule? By touching him in the field of play as Betts went up for the catch, weren't the fans interfering with him? Or is it just where the ball is at the moment he touches it?

7/how can you blame the fans? They sold them those seats and they have a right to put their hands up to keep from being hit in the belly with a baseball, right?

I suppose MLB could mandate that all seats be back from the fences so there would never be contact ever again between fan and player, but wouldn't we all be the loser? That was an exciting, incredible play...and right on the borderline between interference and a homer. What made it special was what a great effort Betts was making. He really looked like he was about to catch that ball until contact with somebody's hand closed his glove. The ball hit off the closed mitt.

That would have been an all-time catch. Or it would have been another clutch home run from one of the best baseball players of his time, Jose Altuve, who can't even play the field with his bum knee. But he keeps hitting balls off and over fences and hustles and bunts and slides and does every damn thing in the world to help his team win. Betts and Altuve: two of a kind...the BEST kind of player.

Other notable defensive plays in this game:

1/Kemp hits a liner down the right field line but makes the mistake of trying to stretch it into a double. Betts races to the ball well up the line in right, pivots and fires a laser to second to nail him. The run, the pivot, the throw. All amazing.

2/Reddick dives for a late inning drive by Betts and backhands it...an even better play than Benintendi's game ender because he did it backhand.

3/Steve Pearce, 36 years old, dives into the Astro's dugout after a foul pop and somersaults onto the deck. As is customary, none of the opposing players try to catch him or cushion his fall as he tries to get an out on them, but they jump up to help him when he can't reach the ball. You've got to appreciate a player like that, having his first big moment in the spotlight after a lifetime of waiting to get into the Big Games. (He saved the Red Sox season with his agile stretch for Nunez's throw to get the last out of the Yankees series. Hit some homers too.)

4/George Springer...The Champagne Super Nova of the Playoffs with now 11 homers (!!), goes to deepest centerfield trying to catch Vasquez's double. He jumps up high on the wall, but with no fans to interfere with him...he misses it.

5/Bregman makes another awesome leaping stop and throw to retire yet another Red Sock. Without him the Sox would have already won this series. Just his defense! Alex made 5 top plays in the first game alone!

6/Benintendi's all-or-nothing dive to preserve the win and rescue Craig Kimbrel from his latest flirtation with blown save disaster. Craig-O is living on borrowed time. He's allowed at least a run in four straight appearances. Benintendi is the Italian Stallion of the moment.

This game see-sawed. The Red Sox would score, the Astros would come back. Morton and Porcello were both out early, their curve balls not finding the plate. I thought the Astros had struck gold with Josh James, the big reliever who throws 102. He was pumped, that's for sure. He could have been the hero but they left him in too long and Bradley connected with a tater to right. (His 3^rd hit in the series...giving him 9 ribbies on 3 hits!)

The Astros' bullpen finally let them down when McCullers, Sipp and Pressley couldn't stem the tide. They brought McCullers in to pitch curveballs to Brock Holt with the bases loaded and he walked in a run.

*********

So much for sublimity. Over in the National League they were playing New Baseball! It's such fun! Everybody swings for the fences and strikes out all the time! And there's no scoring! Just one pitcher after another, all throwing 100. What a wonderful exhibition of...not much.

Ridiculous! So what if the 4^th game was a 14 inning 5 ½ hour game? It was boring!!!! A 1 to 1 tie until the Dodgers finally scored one courtesy of a clutch hit by...Bellinger! That's right, last year's World Series goat is the only player on either team that I can remember cutting down on his swing with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position and serving it to the opposite field away from the stacked defensive shift! He's done it a few times so far and thanks to him the Dodgers have a 3-2 lead in games.

The Brewers had chances, but they disdained going for the simple, puny single that might have won the game for them. Even with a player on second with nobody out they kept trying to pull it over the shift. Strike out after strike out. Futile, ugly, selfish baseball. 32 Ks in that 4^th game, I think 13 hits it was.

Congratulations Boys! You have actually found the perfect recipe to make Baseball, the greatest game ever invented...SUCK!

The Dodgers won the 5^th game behind a fine outing from Clayton Kershaw, who only throws it about 90 nowadays but mixes his pitches and hits his spots. Even without his famous Hammer curveball he can handle a bunch of prima donnas like the home run happy Brew Crew.

There are a lot of villains in this series. Few heroes.

Christian Yelich, the consensus MVP after his red hot September, is a good, hustling ball player. But he sat for a week waiting for the series to start and that was that for his hot streak. Now he's turning over on everything he swings at. The most noise he's made is calling out Manny Machado for being a dirty player.

Machado is a dirty player of course, but it wasn't polite of Christian to criticize poor he! All Manny did was try to clip his friend(!yes... Friend!) Jesus Aguilar's ankle on a routine grounder when Jesus left his foot on half the bag a little too long. Incorrect of Jesus (who looks a whole lot like Shrek!) I'm sure, so why not cripple him for life, Manny? I was happy to see the Brewer's pitcher hit Manny in the ass in the next game. Manny had a press conference in which he explained that “he was just trying to win.” How's that again?

Does some team really want to give this guy a $300 million contract?

How about Josh Hader, the lightning fast leftie reliever of the Milwaukees? He makes big league hitters look stupid. Then he goes home and tweets (or instagrams...who can keep track of all this nonsense?) his friends and calls other people racist names. At least he did before. He's apologized now. Another racist saved by complete transformation and contrition courtesy of social media.

You already have heard me rail enough about the Brewers' 'team leader' Ryan Braun. (On second thought maybe you haven't!) He apologized too...just not to the lab guy who took his urine sample a few years ago and when it was discovered to be dirty, claimed that the lab guy must have spiked it to frame him. You never apologized to that guy, did you Ryan? You never gave back the MVP trophy you cheated to win, either. Screw you Ryan, I will never put your name in bold face. (That'll learn him!)

The Brewers that I like are Lorenzo Cain...great D and a natural leader. Mike Moustakas...(Moose!) and the relief pitcher Brandon Woodruff who homered off of Clayton Kershaw and looked like Jim Thome doing it.

The Dodgers are up 3-2 in games. Who knows what will happen back in Milwaukee? I predicted the Brewers because of all their relief pitchers, but both teams are playing so ugly that I have no idea who will prevail. Whoever it is won't be able to handle the Al champion, whoever it is.

As far as Game 5 of the AL Playoffs, I can't believe the Astros can lose 3 straight games in their home park. But if anybody can do it, the Red Sox can, because they are disciplined pros. But I really think Verlander will paste the Red Sox tonight.

Back at Fenway it's hard to believe the Sox won't win one to take the Series, but here is what I think (and dread) will happen:

Game 5: Verlander beats David Price and the overpitched Bosox bullpen. The Astros probably hit and score 10 runs or so.

Game 6: Gerrit Cole is not so nervous this time pitching in the Fens and he shellacks the Sox and a game but tired armed Chris Sale. Bregman goes off and peppers balls off and over the wall.

Game 7: The Sox bring out their secret New Ace...Nathan Eovaldi... who fans 10 and leaves with a lead over the Astros and their entire pitching staff, including Verlander and Cole.

But Alex Cora calls on Craig Kimble one more time... and this time Kimbrel walks the winning runs on base and loses the Series on a hit by Carlos Correa... or Marwin Gonzalez or Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman or George Springer. The Astros have some pretty good players.

(Did you really think that after picking the Astros all season I was going to change my vote to the Red Sox at the last minute and jinx them? No way!)

I'll blog some more before the World Series. I'm sure that is comforting to you…

Best always,

Marco

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2018: Playoffs...Here's Hoping!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: PLAYOFFS—HERE'S HOPING

...for some semblance of a worthy baseball series contested with Spirit, Sportsmanship and Competitive Fire. I yearn for an exciting League Championship Series where both teams play well. I want Pete Rose coming up to the plate in the tenth inning and saying to the opposition's catcher Carlton Fisk...”Man, this is some kind of game! This is the best game I've ever been in, don't you think it is?” (1975 Series between Reds and Sox)

I don't want to watch the Colorado Rockies score 2 runs in one inning of one playoff game and never score again as they are eliminated in three straight by the Milwaukee Brewers. I find it disheartening to watch MVP contenders like Nolan Arenado flail helplessly at every slider in the dirt that a Brewers pitcher cared to throw him...every time a man was on base for him there was Nolan stomping back to the dugout with another “K” on his scorecard.

Nolan hit .188 for the series.

And he had plenty of company. The Rockies hitters....Desmond .118, Carlos Gonzalez .167,

Blackmon .133, LeMahieu .200. MVP candidate Story hit a blistering .278. The team went 1 for 17 with men on base in the three games. The Rockies were so utterly pathetic on offense that they never even bothered to use their best pitcher, Freeland, in the whole series.

The Dodgers-Braves series was also atrocious, even though the Braves won at least one game when Ronald Acuna, The Young Apollo, hit himself a Grand Salami. But that didn't make the series competitive. L.A. cut a Sherman-like swath through Georgia. But that's okay, the Bravos are young and hungry and they showed real promise as they won the NL East. They'll be back.

Stros-Indians? Are you kidding? I really thought the Indians were a good team, but this 3 game sweep by Houston proved me wrong. Ramirez was terrible in last year's playoffs and he was terrible again this year. 1 for 11. Everybody else was bad too. (Lindor did hit a couple of homers) The defense sucked. The pitching was spotty. Bauer came off an effective season and made errors that killed the Indians in Game 3.

Mainly, the Astros starting pitching just seemed to drain the lifeblood right out of the Clevelanders, as if Verlander and Garrett Cole were Gothic vampires and the Indians were Miss Lucy. After the first two games in Houston, the Cleveland team had very little fight left.

So that leaves us one Divisional Playoff Series that was worth keeping the tele on for: Boston-New York.

This whole series seemed to turn on one innocuous moment. The Red Sox had taken Game 1,as expected, behind their One True Ace Chris Sale. Then David Price came out and did his usual 'Please sir, can I have another?' act with his Dungeon Masters, the Yankee hitters. The Boston bullpen followed the script and 4 homers later the Yankees had a victory that wrested home field advantage away from the Sox.

After the game, though, the innocuous moment took place in the clubhouse, when Aaron Judge, the Bunyanesque Yankee slugger, walked past the Red Sox locker room with a boom box playing “New York, New York” at a notable volume.

Bad idea. It's called 'poking the cage' and it was just the thing to focus the Beantowners and motivate them. Game 3 back in New York: 16-1 Sox. The vaunted New York bullpen got cremated. They wound up pitching backup catcher Romine who allowed Brock Holt to complete the cycle with a cheap Yankee Stadium liner just over the short right field fence.

So Game 4. If the Yanks won, they'd go back to Fenway for a rematch with Sale. Sabathia starts the game and gets into trouble and somehow manager Aaron Boone loses the phone number of the bullpen and can't get another pitcher in there fast enough to prevent the Red Sox from scoring 3. Greatest bullpen in history and they can't bring in one of those 98mph arms to save the series?

The Red Sox don't have a great bullpen. So they feel lucky to get great innings from Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier. I'm not sure why they took Brasier out after only one inning...he looked sharp. But Alex Cora has other ideas.

Every move Cora made in this series seemed to turn golden for the Sox. He platooned his right and leftie hitters even after Holt hit for that cycle. But now he plays a trump card; he brings in Sale to pitch the 8th.

This was risky because if they lost this Game 4 they were depending on Sale to start the rubber game back at Fenway two days later. But, like I said, Boston has a lousy bullpen...they don't really have dependable arms to bridge from the starters to their closer Craig Kimbrel. So Cora risks using Sale to bridge and Sale comes through. In fact he carves the Yankees so expertly that I'm hoping Cora will bring Sale out for another inning, much as the Giants used Bumgarner to beat the Royals in 2014. But Bumgarner was pitching relief in the 7^th game of the Series...it was all going to be over. Boston has to have Sale fresh for a possible Game 5. So out he comes and in comes Kimbrel for the ninth. Red Sox lead 4-1.

I never thought I'd miss Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams. You remember the hotheaded leftie closer with the good sense of humor who could come in throwing gas but walk the bases full every time? He gave up the walk off homer to Joe Carter in the '93 series between winner Toronto and Mitch's Phillies. Watching him pitch was like Chinese Water torture...the drip drip drip of yet another 3-0 count.

Kimbrel is throwing 100...but the balls are just all over the place. Catcher Vasquez saves the game several times blocking balls that are headed for the Durham bull if he'd been behind the dugout. The ball boy is in jeopardy. Judge walks on 4 straight. They play Kinsler over the bag at second but Kimbrel comes inside and Gregorius singles into right. Tying run at the plate. That didn't take long. Stanton strikes out because that's what he does. The Yankees are hungry like the wolf for the big dramatic homer that will affirm their dominance. Voit walks to load the bases. Walker is up and Kimbrel tries to throw a slider. Of course it hits Walker on the foot about two feet inside. A run in. 4-2. Bases still loaded.

Here's the crucial at bat. Cora has nobody in the bullpen; it's Kimbrel until death and death is gaining.

Sancho Panza Sanchez, the guy who hit two homers in Game 2, is up. He wants to hit another one so bad and he probably will, since Kimbrel can't control his pitches and is going to serve up a bunny over the plate sooner or later. But Sanchez is playing bad baseball. A homer wins the game for the Yanks and wouldn't he look special trotting around the bases like the Babe in olden days, doffing his cap to the adoring crowd?

But what he needs to do is hit a single. That would score the tying run from second base. Sanchez takes a tremendous hack on strike 2 and then hits a fly ball to left for a sac fly.

Tying run still on second and the Red Sox are close to the edge of another epic Bostonian nightmare collapse that fans can shudder to for the rest of their lives. I'm having PTSD Deja Voodoo all over again.

On Kimbrel's 30^th pitch of the inning, rookie Gleyber Torres bounces a grounder to third. Nunez makes a great pickup and throws to first as the tying run approaches home. It's a bad throw, in the dirt and offline, but Steve Pierce makes the play of the series and dives into the dirt to glove the throw while just maintaining foot contact with first base. Review confirms: yer out!

Everybody mobs Kimbrel as if he's done something good. I betcha 40 New Englanders lie dead on the floor after watching him pitch that inning.

CONFIDENT PREDICTION:

The Brewers will win Game 1 of their Playoff series with the Dodgers!

Ok, you got me. My computer went haywire last night and I couldn't finish this screed. By the time my grandson could fix it (he can run it remotely to see what hell I have wrought on his precious technology) Game 1 was in the books for the Crew. Good game too except for Yasmani Grandal, the Dodger's catcher, making 2 errors and 2 passed balls in the first 3 innings! Kershaw took the loss but that one was on Grandal.

I'm picking Milwaukee to win this series because:

1/home field advantage

2/hottest team going into playoffs

3/hottest hitter going into playoffs is Yelich

4/Milwaukee never gets to win

5/that incredible bullpen

Let's talk about that bullpen. The Brewers are trying out that new-fangled theory that instead of depending on a starter to give you 6 or 7 innings you can just put somebody out there for an inning or two and then have a long parade of one inning relief pitchers finish off the other team. Stats say that hitters do much better against pitchers that they've seen more and the third time through the lineup those starters can't fool them as much.

The Tampa Bay Rays went all in on this theory and tested it out by having their closer start the game and pitch one or two innings and then keep fresh arms out there for the whole game. They had the best second half record in the AL.

The problem with this new theory is that if you do it every game you burn out your whole staff. Even relief pitchers can't go hard for an inning a game day after day. With the 25 man roster you just can't maintain the plan. What you need is 6 two inning type pitchers. Andrew Miller of the Indians. Josh Hader of the Brewers. Then you can rotate them and rest the other three. With your other 6 guys you take care of the extra inning games and the tough innings against the middle of the order types.

One true thing about this revolutionary idea is that relievers are used to coming in cold and facing the best hitters on the other team. Starters often need a couple of innings to get the feel of the mound etc. I mean, pitching is a question of nano-centimeters between a perfect pitch on the corner and a bunny into the seats. Relievers just throw hard. Control is not their specialty. Most of them have a blazing fastball or a wipe-out slider. So the top of the order doesn't get that starter when he may be vulnerable, before he finds his range. They get some crazy closer throwing 98. Then they bring the 'starter' in to face the 7-8-9 hitters to get him acclimated before he has to face the meat of the order.

The Dodgers are the old school team. Heroic starters like Clayton Kershaw who can discombobulate the other team through 8 or 9 innings. Thing is, there are only twelve pitchers...we call them Aces...as good as Kershaw in the whole MLB. We have starters who are great one day, suckee the next. Only one third of the teams have a true Ace. Kershaw, Bumgarner, Nola, Scherzer, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Strassburg, Lester...that's pretty much it for the NL.

Sale, Verlander, Cole, Kluber...that's it for the AL.

But go count up the effective relievers. Guys who can shut you down for one inning. There's about 100.

So teams are configuring their pitching staffs a new way.

3 or 4 closer types for every team. The Brewers are built along those lines. I think they'll win with that idea this year. At least until they face the Astros in the World Series.

The really bad thing about this new Paradigm is longer games. Each team is going to use 7 guys every freaking game...an endless parade of pitchers trudging out from the bullpen and taking 8 warm up pitches...endless trips to the mound so the catcher and pitcher can talk about signs. Oh hideous fate! No more shutouts, 25 game winners, one pitcher no-hitters. No Walter Johnsons, Bob Fellers, Sandy Koufaxes or Bob Gibsons. Just a bunch of one-inning wonders.

The Astros and the Bosox. I avoided contemplating this eventuality by picking the Yankees to beat the Sox. That's the only Division series I got wrong. So now we get the two winningest teams. The Red Sox scored the most runs a game (5.7) and the Astros gave up the fewest (3.3) The Red Sox had the best home record, the Stros had the best road record. Something's got to give!

These teams are close. They both have a winning mentality and confidence. Both lineups are deep. Both benches are strong. The Astros have better pitching and that's what might make the difference. The rundown:

5 point scale: 5 is MVP level player, 4 is All Star level, 3 is average big league player, 2 is below average, but still has enough talent in one area or another to be valuable...good D, can steal a base, some power etc. 1 point player? Maybe they should be playing the batboy.

3^rd base: Houston has Bregman: 5 points. Boston has either Nunez or Devers or maybe Holt: 3 points.

Short: Houston has an injured Correa: 2 points for now Boston has Bogaerts: worth 4.

Second: Houston has Altuve: 5 points Bosox have Holt and Kinsler platooning: 3 points

First: Give Houston Gurriel: 3 points. Boston has Pierce and Moreland (who has a bad hammy) 3 points

Catcher: a bunch of non-hitters but I say the two Bosox backstops are among the best defenders in the league. Vasquez and Leon: 2 points. Houston has McCann and Maldonado: 2 points.

Left: Houston: Marwin Gonzalez: 3 points (with an up arrow for being clutch lately) Boston: Benintendi: 4 points

Center: Houston: Springer: 4 points. Boston: Bradley Jr.: 3 points (less for offense than for spectacular D)

Right: Houston: Reddick: 3 points. Boston: Betts: 5 points.

Total: Houston: 27 points Boston: 27 points.

I just wasted two pages of stats.

As far as pitching goes, the Astros have two Aces in Verlander and Cole and two good backups in Kuechel and Morton. The Sox have Sale and he can match the Aces but Price and Porcello can't.

The wild card is Eovaldi. He throws 100 but he's usually all over the place. The only team he's been consistently good against is the Yankees and they needed him to beat the Yanks. If he can win a game and Sale can win 2 the Sox may do it. But I don't see the Sox handling Cole at all and even though they've seen Verlander a lot, they haven't beaten him much. If Sale can win that first game in Boston the Sox can win this series. But if they lose two in Boston forget it.

The Astros have a much deeper, better bullpen.

I say Houston in 7. These are my two favorite teams and I hope it's a killer series.

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2018: Playoffs...Who Do Ya Like?

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: PLAYOFFS...WHO DO YA LIKE?

I had to wait until these one game wild card and tiebreaker for division crown type games are over because who the heck can predict winners in those kinds of games anyway? I mean, it's one lousy game? It's been a little easier lately when one team has a Bumgarner or an Arrieta pitching. At least you can go with the Ace and guess right.

This year we had the NL Central tiebreaker with the Adorables at the Ivied Hallowed Halls of Heroes versus the upstart slightly chemically augmented Milwaukee Brew Blasters. I picked the Cubs at home and of course lost. The Crew continued their run of discombobulating the Chicagoans as Maddon kept pitching to Yelich who continued his hot hand and murdered their pitchers.

This forced the Baby Bears into a wild card game at home against the Rockies. They lost again and looked really bad doing it. The game went 13 innings and had the hometowners bringing in starters Cole Hamels and Stork Hendricks to face the Rockheads. They couldn't score to save their adorable souls and went down in fairly pitiful fashion.

The highlight of that game was Javier Baez running into the arms of Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and hugging him to keep Arenado from throwing to first and doubling up Cubs catcher Wilson Contreras who was limping down to first with a leg cramp after grounding weakly to third. It looked really stupid. Baez just embraced Nolan with great Latin passion and Arenado seemed to forget what he was supposed to do. It was like “You feel so good in my arms Jave! Let's do the Habanera!” And Jave was like “I'm Puerto Rican, make it the Bomba! And hold me tighter you Cuban Hunk, you!”

So now I'm expecting...that's it! The fatal mistake! Now the Cubs will score the winning run in this, the 12^th inning of Doom, and people will be talking about this play for a baseball eternity. But no, the Cubbies didn't take advantage of this Javier Baez Dancing with the Star moment and now this too, the “Merengue of the MVPs” will fade from memory.

So the Rockies, who had just lost their chance at the division crown by losing badly to the Dodgers, are now playing the Brew Crew in a five game set in Milwaukee.

I like Milwaukee in 5 games because the Brewers have been beating everybody lately. And Yelich has been awesome. His swing is so perfect that he's hitting everything on the sweet spot and going to all fields.

Everybody seems to concede the MVP to Yelich because he's had his hot streak late. It's been very impressive, but Baez had some hot streaks earlier and pretty much carried the Cubs offensively in a really down year for the Baby Bear bats. And Baez was playing all over the field wherever Joe Maddon needed him. With Addison Russell in trouble for slumping and for beating on his woman, Baez was mostly at shortstop, and last time I looked that's a much more important defensive position than left field. And Baez is one of the best at short.

In case you forgot, the importance of the defensive positions after pitcher goes something like this:

1/catcher (by a wide margin) 2/shortstop 3/second base 4/center field 5 and 6/third base and first base (pretty much a tie...third basemen get a few more grounders because of more right handed hitters in baseball and have to have a stronger arm. But first basemen handle the ball a lot more and have to dig out throws.) 7/right field (because a right fielder has to have a stronger arm so he can throw that long toss to third when a runner rounds second and goes for it.) 8/left field (where you can hide a weak arm and get away with playing guys who can't field anywhere else.)

Now that doesn't mean that a player at a less vital defensive position can't still be more valuable defensively. A Mookie Betts who plays so well in the difficult right field at Fenway is more defensively valuable than a bad second basement like Danny Murphy. But Murphy is an anomaly. Most fielders that bad get traded to the American League so they can DH.

Yelich is a great left fielder. But Baez is a great shortstop and that trumps whatever Yelich does in left field. So, with their offensive stats being so similar, I give the MVP to Baez by a hair because I think he did more to help the Cubs win as much as they did in a down year for them. I'd rather watch Yelich hit because I like that style better than Jave's swing for the downs and never walk style. Both of them hit in the clutch like Champs.

Both the Rocks and the Brews depend upon their bullpens to control the game. Rocks have one stud starter in Kyle Freeland. Brews have the scary relief closer in Josh Hader. I think the Brews are more ready to win.

The other 5 game playoff in the NL is between the Dodgers and the Atlanta Bravos. The Bravos clinched a while ago and now everybody has forgotten about them. With Freeman, Markakis and Acuna, they are a dangerous bunch. But I don't think they have the pitching or the experience to beat the Dodgers yet.

It took the Bluebloods all year to get their team squared away, but now that the pitching staff is reasonably healthy and deep and Manny Machado and Brian Dozier have adjusted to the National League, L.A. is just too powerful for the Bravos. They also have home field advantage in this series and they should cruise.

Over in the American League, the Yankees woke up and pounded the Oakland Clones in Yankee Stadium. The key moment in that contest was Aaron Judge hitting a rocket homer (finally) and reassuring the faithful that his broken wrist has healed. Judge seems to be the thermometer for the Yanks. If he's hot, the team gets fired up.

So now we have the long awaited next chapter in the Playoff Saga of the Yankees versus the Red Sox. The Fine Young Bombers against the all time winning-est Red Sox ever.

I have stated before that I think the Sox are in trouble against this team. Chris Sale is the only starter who has been able to control the Yankees this year, especially in the Stadium. Chris is hurt. He has no velocity on his fastball after shoulder problems. It's doubtful he can go long into a game and the Yankees have killed the Red Sox bullpen. I don't think Porcello and Price can beat the Yankees and I don't trust the bullpen.

I think to have a chance in this series, the Sox will have to get Betts and Martinez at the top of their offensive powers and they'll have to hold serve at Fenway. But it's going to be hard to ask Sale to win two games coming off that injury.

The Yankees have to feel good about how Severino looked against the Oaklands. If he's the Ace again, they've got to be feeling confident. They've got the Beef Trust of Judge, Stanton, Voit, Andujar, Sanchez and Gleyber Torres all hitting for power. The one fly in their ointment? Sanchez is such a bad catcher that the Sox may be able to run wild just on passed balls! The Yankees should play Romine.

Yankees in 5.

Who remembers the Houston Astros? Remember? The team that won last year? That old fashioned team that has actual Starting Pitchers? This whole new trend of pitching your bullpen every game instead of having an actual starting pitcher go 6 or 7 innings is not the Astro's bag. They have Verlander, Cole, Morton and Keuchel. Now that Jose Altuve is healthy, they have their sparkplug. Alex Bregman took up the slack when Altuve, Correa and Springer were hurt and pretty much saved their season when Oakland started to surge. Mookie Betts probably overtook Bregman for MVP with a sizzling September and you can't ask any player to do more to help his team. But Bregman was a true hero as well.

He's a little behind Mook stat-wise, but 51 doubles and 31 homers is still pretty good.

The Astros aren't as scary this year offensively because Carlos Correa, their great young shortstop, has back trouble and hasn't hit since coming off the DL. Springer has been sluggish as well. More pressure on Altuve, Bregman and people like Gattis and Gurriel.

The Clevelanders are the true dark horse team of this year's playoffs. They could win if Encarnacion has a good run and Joe Ramirez and Lindor keep up their hotting. (Shorthand for 'hot hitting'!)The Tribe has a starting staff second only to the 'Stros. Their bullpen is just as good. Could be a classic series.

Astros in 5.

I'm going to postpone my predictions for the rest of the playoffs until we've seen the first round.

Hasta La Vista Baby!