MARCO'S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: ALPHA-STARS AND MVPS
I
don't know if you're like me, but I get kind of excited when young
stars make a great early impression coming into the majors. Guys like
Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto and
Alex Bregman.
Shohei
is just a remarkable cat. I never would have thought this young
Japanese kid could say no to the big money and come over to the
States at a still young age and just dominate the way he has. He's a
very strong candidate for Rookie of the year in the AL, even having
missed so much time with injuries and enforced rest days. His
offensive stats are as good as Mike Trout's were for the first
300 plate appearances of his career. All-field power, good speed and
a great attitude. And then to go out on the mound and pitch like one
of the top stars in the game! I so regret that his damn elbow hasn't
held up to the strain as of yet. Maybe he'll get Tommy John-ed and
come back next summer, just to hit for awhile until he's ready to
pitch again. Baseball needs somebody like him to come in and blow our
minds. A full healthy year from Ohtani-san and maybe he can help get
Mike Trout to the playoffs.
This
season so far, Ohtani has batted. .290, gotten on base at a .376
clip, slugged .593 and has an OPS of .970. He has 20 homers and 55
ribbies and has even stolen 9 bases. For comparison Trout..a top MVP
candidate... has gone .318/.464/.614/1.078 with 34 homers, 70 ribbies
and 23 steals. But Trout has had 567 plate appearances while Ohtani
has just 320! Except for on-base Shohei is right there with Trout.
And he is almost his equal in ribbies despite 250 fewer trips to the
plate!! (Okay, that might have something to do with the fact that
Ohtani bats after Trout in the Angel's lineup and Trout has walked
112 times.) Anyway, extrapolate to a full season of plate appearances
by doubling these stats and you get something like 38 homers and 110
ribs. That's good enough, wouldn't you say? And add about 20 steals
and you have, in Ohtani, the closest thing to a new Alpha-Star that
we've seen in baseball in quite some time.
I
coined the term Alpha-Star back in 2015 (check July 9th
blog from that year if you want the whole essay) to designate those
rare players who dominate in all 5 tool categories. (Those being:
ability to hit, hit with power, run, field and throw).
“Dominate”
doesn't necessarily mean leading the league in all phases of the
game. It means that on any given day, that player is capable of being
the very best on the field at all the skills. The prime examples are
players like Willie Mays and
Mickey Mantle. Guys like Ted Williams and
Stan Musial were awesome hitters of course, but were never the
top fielders or runners in their eras. Most Alpha-Stars were either
center fielders or shortstops because by definition players with
those skill levels would best be used at those positions...if you can
run and field and throw that's where they play you and the hitting
takes care of itself. The only player who actually DID LEAD his
league in every 5 tool category was probably Honus Wagner, the
legendary shortstop of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Wagner
was a barrel-chested, bowlegged German with blacksmith-type strength.
Honus is penalized in our feeble memories because he played in the
dead ball era in a small market on fields with no fences when you
couldn't hit home runs. But get this, in several seasons Honus lead
the league in batting average, slugging percentage and steals. He hit
the ball farther than anyone else on those ridiculous no-fence fields
they used in the 1900's. He was also the best fielding shortstop and
it is said of him that he would have been considered the best fielder
in the game at any other position that they could have chosen to use
him at. He played all over the diamond. He had the best throwing arm
in baseball bar none. (These evaluations are the opinions of hundreds
of baseball experts like John McGraw and Connie Mack, managers who
played against Wagner and saw thousands of baseball players over the
years).
The
other Uber-Alpha-Star (with an asterisk) is Babe Ruth. The
Babe contended for batting titles, of course hit for power like
nobody before or since, and is in a special category with throwing
because of his excellence as a pitcher early in his career.
Pitchers
don't qualify for Alpha status because they don't often figure in
offensively...but their importance as hurlers means that that one
skill...throwing...can help them dominate the game. Well, Ruth would
have won at least one Cy Young Award if it had existed in his day, so
that means he was the very best pitcher in the game at one time and
also the very best hitter in several other seasons.
The
asterisk is because for most of his career The Babe couldn't run that
well. Early on he was actually deceptively fast, but he wasn't a
stolen base leader or anything. He is top twenty of all time in
steals of home. But power plus pitching has never been seen in our
game like this since the Babe...until Ohtani! Bow down...we are not
worthy!
Are
there any other Alpha-Stars in major league baseball right now? Some
are close. Let's take a look:
AL:
1/Mike
Trout/Angels. He's close to the top as a hitter and a power
hitter. He can steal with the best or close to it if they'd let him
run that much. He's a top center fielder. He doesn't have the
dominating arm of some other players, but he's much better than he
was when he came up. 4 out of 5 categories as an Alpha.
2/Carlos
Correa/Astros. Has the power and the hitting ability to go with
super speed and fielding ability. One of the best arms in baseball.
But Carlos hasn't put it together yet. If he can stay healthy he'll
hit 40 homers some day and he can bat .320 anytime. They probably
won't want him stealing more than twenty or thirty times a year. He's
not the best shortstop in range or magic glove work but he has that
arm so he's good enough. Let's give him 3 for 5 but with an up arrow.
3/Jose
Altuve/Astros. A perennial MVP candidate and batting champ, Jose
has power... in Minute Maid Park. I doubt he'd hit more than 15 a
year if his home games were played in Seattle or somewhere. He could
lead the league in steals anytime and he's among the very best
defensive second baseman. If his arm was stronger they'd have put him
at shortstop so we can't give him Alpha status there. Jose gets a 3
for 5 but see below for a more in depth analysis of his value.
4/Alex
Bregman/Astros. My choice along with Mookie for MVP this year.
These two and Lindor are above J.D.Martinez because of
running and defense. Bregman has kept the Astros in the race when all
their other hitting stars were injured. Batting Average – top ten.
Power - check. (But also helped a whole lot by Minute Maid Park.)
Fielding- check (He could be their shortstop if they didn't have
Correa.) Throwing not the very best, after all we have Machado and
Arenado and arms like that out there, but Bregman is plenty
strong. Run – just slightly above average. 10 steals this year.
Give Alex a 3 1/2 out of 5 but give him props for hitting 50 doubles
and 30 homers in the same season and for being mind-numbingly clutch.
5/Francisco
Lindor/Indians. A shortstop and the best in our game. Andrelton
Simmons of the Angels is his only real competition as a fielder.
Simmons hits better than he used to, but he's not in Lindor's
neighborhood. Correa can hit with Frankie, but when they played for
their World Baseball Classic team it was Lindor who played short.
Nuff said. 41 doubles, 34 homers 23 steals. Only batting .283 so
that's not top flight. 4 out of 5.
6/Jose
Ramirez/Indians. His .960 OPS is higher than Lindor's. 35
doubles, 38 homers, 99 rbi's and 32 steals. Last year he hit 56
doubles and 29 homers. His batting average of .280 is a little low
for Alpha status this year but he hit about .315 the two previous
years. That's in the territory. He's been generally unstoppable for
three seasons now. Jose plays a lot of positions. Not a gold glover
but better than adequate. 3 out of 5.
7/Mookie
Betts/Red Sox. All around star. He plays right field instead of
center but please remember that right field at Fenway is the biggest
and toughest right field in the majors. Mookie's speed allows him to
run down a lot of fly balls and liners that other fielders would
miss. A lot of value there. His arm isn't as good as the guy to his
right, Bradley Junior. But Betts could easily lead the majors
in steals if he focused on that and only a very few players can run
with him. He's hitting .340 this year to lead the world and his 29
homers are significant power indicators. 4 for 5 in Alpha credits.
8/Vlad
Guerrero Junior/Blue Jays. Here's one to watch. Toronto won't
bring him up this year to avoid starting his “clock” on free
agency, but he's the best prospect in baseball for a 2019 debut. His
power is approaching the top of the chart and he will hit for average
as well. He has a great eye, and like his Dad, seldom swings and
misses. I know his arm is okay (at third base) but his defense is a
work in progress at 19. They just moved him to third from the
outfield and he has to learn. I doubt if he'll be the running threat
that his Dad was, but who knows? Scouting reports are emphatic that
this guy will have several .300 average/ 40 homer seasons in the
Bigs. 3 for 5.
NL:
1/Juan
Soto/Nationals. Pretty exciting player. At 19 he's already a
major force in the lineup. The guy is scary looking at the plate. He
looks a lot like Manny Ramirez but from the left-hand side.
Power to all fields. He's a good base runner but not a stolen base
threat of any note. His arm seems just adequate so far and his
defense solid but not awe inspiring. But that bat! 2 1/2 for 5 Alpha
points.
2/Victor
Robles/Nationals. You might have forgotten that the Nats have
this Dominican kid for their outfield next year as well. A right
handed, high average hitter with plus-plus speed that make him a top
notch go get 'em outfielder and stolen base machine. He has a
powerful arm too. Only 15-20 homer power projected, but should get
lots of extra base hits. 4 out of 5 Alphas.
3/Bryce
Harper/Nationals. Oh yeah...that guy again. Despite all the
clamor that he's maybe the best player in baseball blah blah he's
really only had one outstanding season. That was when he had his
stance together and was spraying the ball to all fields with power.
It was kind of awe inspiring. He still produces good power, but he
seems content to pull the ball into the shift and bat .249. He has 35
homers but 158 strike outs! Good defense, good runner but doesn't try
to steal much. Good arm but not an elite arm. 3 out of 5. If somebody
could inspire this kid and keep him from sulking so much he could be
a Mickey Mantle type.
4/Ronald
Acuna/Braves. The Real Deal down in Georgia. Acuna is a high
average type hitter with 40 homer a year power, 40 steals a year
speed, great defense and one of the best outfield arms in baseball
the minute he first took the field. When people start mentioning your
name and then saying “Hank Aaron” right after, you better
take note. I won't tweek the nose of the Gods by sanctioning this
comparison, but I will cross my fingers and pray that it's true.
Wouldn't that be a wonderful thing to watch? LEGITIMATE 5 FOR 5 AS AN
ALPHA-STAR.
5/Christian
Yelich/Brewers. Not dominating yet, but a very good player in all
phases who might win the batting crown this year. 29 homers and 19
steals...great defense, arm. Keep your eye on him. 4 out of 5.
6/Javier
Baez/Cubs. I have to admit, he shut my mouth this year. I can't
stand his type of hitting. No plate discipline...no walks...tons of
strikeouts...takes maximum hacks at every opportunity. But this year
he's in the top ten in EVERY big offensive category. 31 4-baggers,
.295 average, 21 steals and one of the best defensive players at
several infield positions with a gun of an arm. Credit where it's do.
He's probably the MVP. And he owns 5 OUT OF 5 of the basic baseball
tools.
7/Paul
Goldschmidt/Diamondbacks. Goldy has character. He had the worst
start I almost ever saw for as consistent hitter as he's been but
look at his line now, after another season of carrying his team
offensively. .300/.401/.558...33/83 homers and rbis. He didn't steal
as much this year, but he's had as many as 32 in years past. He's one
of the best defensive first basemen so I give him 4 out of 5. He
probably should have won the MVP by now.
8/Nolan
Arenado/Rockies. I'm sure his stats are a little inflated by
Coors Field, but this is a really good player. Always near the top in
power and a good average hitter too. Best defensive third sacker in
baseball. His arm would be the best if Manny Machado didn't exist.
(Manny has the best third base arm I've ever seen. He's much better
there than at short because of his range.) Nolan doesn't run with the
deer, so give him 4 out of 5 Alpha points.
9/Trevor
Story/Rockies. Trevor is the only shortstop in baseball history
to hit 30 homers, 40 doubles and steal 25 bases in one season. I
thought Nomar or ARod would have done that. Guess not. How good a
defensive shortstop is Story? He only has 11 errors this year and
that's really good for a shortstop. I'm a little foggy on his range
but I think he's petty good. Depending on how good, we might have to
give him an extra point. For now we'll give his arm the benefit of
the doubt and give him 4 out of 5 points.
10/Yasiel
Puig/Dodgers. He has all the tools but never seems to put it all
together. At the very top of power/speed/arm strength combos. Plays
hard but dumb. Weakest area is hitting for average. 4 for 5.
A
latter day Bo Jackson.
So
that's my list...7 guys in the AL, 10 in the NL and one sure thing in
the minors contending for Alpha-Star status. I will watch them all
with pleasure and frustration.
I've
said before that I really don't agree that the 5 tool designation
really sums up a player's possible contributions to victory in this
game. I always add 3 more categories: DURABILITY, INTELLIGENCE and
LEADERSHIP. I've explained them all in previous blogs, but here's
a short story that illustrates it:
Willie
Mays finished in the top 6 for MVP voting 12 times. He started
playing in the majors at 20 and didn't miss but maybe 10 total games
(except for a spell in the military) in his whole career until he was
over 36 years old. Willie's hands were so strong that he regularly
won bets that he could catch any pitcher's fastball barehanded. Think
about that for a minute. (The only other guy I ever heard of who
could do that was big Ernie Lombardi, the catcher from the Cincinnati
Reds who could actually hold seven baseballs in one hand.)
Well,
back to my point. In addition to his durability, Mays was an on-field
coach. He placed the Giants outfield for every hitter, and he knew
all the hitters in the league. That's some kind of intelligence that
helped his team win. And of course, leadership...how would it feel to
play with the best all around player in the history of baseball?
As
Leo Durocher used to say, “Jesus Christ could come down from
heaven and play center field and I'd still look you in the eye and
tell you Willie was better.”
THE
RACES:
We're
getting so close to the Playoffs that I won't waste too much time
speculating on the pennant races this time.
AL:
Boston
and Cleveland are
in. Houston is a lock.
Houston
will be favored because of their four great starting pitchers and
suddenly better bullpen.
Cleveland
went out and got Josh Donaldson to reunite with his old
Toronto pal Edwin Encarnacion. If Josh can get back in game
shape that may be the best late season move of the year. Josh is a
natural leader and Grit Meister.
Boston
has the best record but their pitching is suspect, both starting and
bullpen. If Chris Sale can't come back and pitch seven innings
every four days they won't win anything. They might start relying
more on Stephen Wright and his knuckler to eat up innings and
disrupt hitter's timing. Their Ace closer Craig Kimbrel is
giving up hits, walks and is using about 30 pitches an inning. Not
good.
It
looks like Oakland and
New York are the wild cards but in what order nobody can tell.
The
Yanks have been in a funk. They had the schedule opportunity to beat
up on the losers of the league but blew it. What is their major
malfunction? Probably the loss of Aaron Judge. He seems to
spark them with his Humble Giant routine. Also, Severino has
lost control of his slider and therefore leans on his fastball too
much. BANG! POW! SEE YA! And another thing...it's really hard to win
pennants when you don't have a catcher who can catch ...or at least
block...pitches. Sancho Sanchez may be the worst defensive
catcher in the majors. The Yanks should DH him and let him be the
backup catcher. They need a competent backstop.
Oakland
is a Mystery Ship, cruising the sea lanes ready to sink whole
convoys. Those home run bats might sweep them to an unexpected
victory if they can get their excellent bullpen to divide up the
innings efficiently and avoid their very iffy starters.
NL:
Atlanta
seems like they're in the catbird seat with their 6 game lead over
their only competition the Ever-Napping Nats and the Ever-Festering
Phillies. However, the Braves are also liable to go on a ten game
losing streak at any moment so I'll wait til the votes are counted,
thank you.
The
Cubs can't put away the Brewers and
the Cards for the division title in the Central.
The
Dodgers and the
Rockies (who I picked to win) are beating each other up for the
Div...but neither looks like they can win the Wild Card over the
Cards and the Brew Crew.
Whoever
comes out of the NL this year will be a major underdog to whoever the
winner of the AL winds up being. I always root for the Red Sox to
meet the Cubs in a match of the old time ballparks, but that's mainly
nostalgia.
Stand
by for a dazzling finish to the season!
---Marco
