Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2018: "EDUCATION IS IMPORTANT BUT BASEBALL IS IMPORTANT-ER" Edition

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: “EDUCATION IS IMPORTANT BUT BASEBALL IS IMPORTANT-ER” EDITION

ITEM 1: SLAY THE BEAST!

My Old Chums Brady and Phil and I are playing hookie and driving down to Houston Thursday to watch the Astros host the Yankees in an actual mid-week DAY GAME!! Ah, the prehistoric perfection of it all! Phil's cousin George (Yankee fan that he is) got us some kind of good seats from his law firm's seasonal supply (those lawyers can't play hookie like we can) and we should be in good position to revel in the astounding fact that the Astros actually have the Yankees OUTGUNNED! I mean...it's close...but except for the bullpen and the power quotient...

The Yankees are great and they are going to be even greater in the next two years or so as their talented young players figure it out. The rest of the league has conspired to make Didi Gregorious the MVP by continuing to pitch to him with right-handers as they try to counter the three-headed hydra of Judge/Stanton/Sanchez in that batting order. Did you notice that as soon as Aaron Boone changed up the lineup to put Didi in between Judge and Stanton that the team went on a nine-game winning streak? With their diminutive shortstop leading the way with nightly game winning homers and such? In trying to neutralize those Yankee right handed sluggers the league has turned Gregorius into George Brett.

Why do they keep trying to get fastballs by him on the inside corner? The guy has really quick hands and he keeps sending drives into the short right field porch at the Stadium. The righty pitchers can't control the big boppers anyway because the big Beastie Boys can reach out for those outside corner fastballs and flip little pop ups that wind up in the (should be illegal) ridiculous home run haven in right field.

Why not schedule some leftie junk ball pitchers against the Yankees once in awhile and see what happens? Or just anybody who can throw off-speed once in awhile? Charlie Morton of the Astros just broke up that winning streak with a strong outing where he made the pinstripers look stupid trying to hit his big hook and used his fastball to set them up high and off the plate. Gregorius struck out on a good curveball and missed it by two feet. Come on American League...adjust.

If you don't, the Yankees will turn into an all-devouring nightmare. They have great established hitting stars being augmented by some scary-good young players like Miguel Andujar (leads league in doubles), Gleybar Torres (watch him turn a double play...move over Mazeroski!) and Travis Austin, this year's winner of the Robin Ventura Memorial “Why-On-Earth-Did-I-Charge-The-Mound?” Award for turning Red Sox hurler Joe Kelly into a folk hero by putting his ass in the way of a retaliatory purpose pitch after he came into second base tootsies high and spiked Brock Holt; a slide which was illegal, unnecessary and a double no-no for a brash rookie to think he could get away with. Then he loses his grits after getting his ass tattooed his next time up? Grow up Travis! I'm going to Houston to boo you! (Now he's scared!)

ITEM 2: LET US NOW PRAISE THE FORMER DISASTROS

Speaking of Charlie Morton, he's just one of the amazing members of the Astros starting staff which features 3 or 4 pitchers in the league leaders in ERA and strike outs at any given time. Keuchel hasn't even gotten it going like he can but the others...Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Morton and (except for a couple of bad starts) McCullers are blitzing the league. With that kind of starting pitching and that offense it's a wonder they've managed to lose 10 games, but nobody was hitting in the early going except Springer, Correa and Altuve...the rest of the order was sub-Mendoza. Now the rest of the order is starting to wake up. And they're in first place anyway. The bullpen is still the question, but Giles looked good striking out the side last night in the 2-1 win over the Bombers.

ITEM 3: PRESCIENCE

As I predicted, pitching is moving off the get-them-out-with-heat school of thought and going to the subtle Bugs Bunny change ups, nerf-ball splitters and “excuse-me-but-have-you-seen-my-jockstrap-around-here-anywhere?” sliders to get these muscle boy launch-angle Cyborgs out. Ho-hum, here comes another record strike out year.

Witness the Diamondback's resurgent starter Patrick Corbin. Last year he threw 30% fastballs. ERA 4.08/K to BB ratio 3-1/ WHIP 1.42. This year he's only throwing 15% fastballs. Everything else breaks, dips or darts. 2018 record 4-0. ERA 2.25/K-BB 8-1/WHIP 0.75

ITEM 4: EARTHQUAKE TRADE COMING

Corbin and other hurlers are fattening up on a steady diet of Dodger. The Blue Ones are hurting now that Corey Seager (I talked about it in April) had his elbow finally surrender. He's up for TJ surgery and a year off. Along with the continuing Justin Turner rehab the 'Heads are without the heart of their batting order. The Dodgers can't afford to wait a year or two for their team to reconfigure. They need a good infielder and a big bat for the middle of the order.

I predict they will give up trying to stay under the luxury tax cap and give up boo-coo prospects and coinage to procure Manny Machado. They'll try to sign him to a long term so they don't lose him to free agency after they rent him for this season, but the Dodger brass knows they need to win now, before Kershaw breaks down or opts out. They ain't gonna get there with Bellinger, Joc Peterson and Chase Utley...even though those guys have been pretty good so far. (Puig is waiting for the hot weather.) Tomorrow's headlines today,Folks!

A couple more Dodger notes: I give manager Dave Roberts major points for immediately benching Cody Bellinger after the latter dogged it running out a sure double. Bellinger mouthed off to the press saying he shouldn't risk injury by over-hustling. Oh really? Tell it to Enos Slaughter or Pete Rose. Go ask your teammate Chase Utley what his opinion is. Lack of hustle is a poisonous and viral contagion in any team, but especially one that is struggling like the Los Angeles Dodgers. Roberts did exactly the right thing by slapping down his star so the rest of the team won't get the idea that it's okay to loaf on a baseball field.

I picked the Rockies to finish ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West this season but now it looks like Arizona will also top them. I hope the Dodger owners don't blame Dave Roberts for this team falling off the cliff. It's a long season and the Bluebloods have a habit of getting real hot in mid-summer. We'll see.

ITEM 5: MORE TOMORROW'S HEADLINES

PLAYOFF TEAMS FOR 2020 NOW SET!

AMERICAN LEAGUE: NEW YORK, BOSTON, HOUSTON, CHICAGO WHTE SOX, OAKLAND

NATIONAL LEAGUE: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, COLORADO

Place your early bets in Vegas…

ITEM 6: NAMES

Doesn't it seem like there's a lot of guys named “Gurriel” in baseball all of a sudden?

Even though he can't spell his name right, I am rooting for Padre left-fielder Jose Pirela. Hey, he doesn't have any power but he's got a low batting average.

ITEM 7: DYNAMIC DUOS

The Phillies (as predicted) have come alive this season. They have some young, strong, exciting players, led by Rhys Hoskins (OPS .985) and Odubel Herrera (.905) Once their young pitchers come around…

The Atlanta Braves were hot early with their chronic underachieving shortstop Dansby Swanson leading the Majors in OPS. Dansby has come back to earth (.766) but now the Bravos have struck gold with 21 year old second sacker Ozzie Albies (.988) and 20 year old outfielder Ronald Acuna (1.289) hitting in front of established threat Freddie Freeman (.995). 'Bout time the Braves got up off the canvas. If half their starting pitchers hadn't gone down they'd be in first place.

With Washington sufferring their usual quota of crippling injuries one of those two NL East teams could make the playoffs this year. And don't discount the Mets who started so hot, but then lost a heartbreaker late to the Nats and have been middling since then. The Metskies also banished Harvey to the bullpen when he couldn't top 91 on the radar gun anymore. Harvey took it personally but what can he say? He can't get people out as a starter. Maybe he'll resurrect in the bullpen.

ITEM 8: LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS (for wonks only)

A quote from Mark Twain illustrating the volatile nature of the truth in our afflicted day and age. In this case the argument is...”who is the best offensive player in baseball?” Aren't you tired of the controversy? Most people say Mike Trout 'cause he's so cute and warm and fuzzy. And Bryce Harper is so feiry and bearded and has hair that moves. Jose Altuve is like a Pokemon. Joey Votto is Italian and gets on base a lot. And how about Giancarlo Stanton? He's Big! And Aaron Judge! He's so...also Big!

It's time for the cold hard clarity of statistics.

I present for your consideration the simple stat called OP...offensive production. Here's what it is.

TOTAL BASES +

WALKS +

HIT BY PITCH +

SACRIFICE FLIES+

RBIS +

STOLEN BASES

MINUS -

STRIKE OUTS -

GROUNDED INTO DOUBLE PLAYS-

CAUGHT STEALING

DIVIDE THE TOTAL BY PLATE APPEARANCES FOR THE OP NUMBER

How do I justify my impudence in inventing OP? Just what the world needs...another impenetrable stat to evaluate baseball players.

Well mine is certainly not definitive.

In trying to isolate a player's contributions you need to separate him from the strength or weakness of his teammates. That is almost impossible. (Good. It is supposed to be a team game anyway, right?) Joey Votto has been the only good hitter on the Reds for many seasons, so his production will probably suffer somewhat. Hack Wilson was not a Hall of Famer but he hit 56 homers and had 191 ribbies (the all-time MLB record)for the Cubs in 1930. His OPS was 1.177! But Wilson was hitting in a lineup that hit .309 for the season! OPS .859! Those are the TEAM totals in a lively ball National League that hit .303 as a LEAGUE. So Wilson had a lot more opportunities to drive in runs, for sure.

Therefore it's hard to compare hitters across eras and to tell how much their teammates help or hurt their production. Ballpark configuration ALSO figures into it a lot. (You heard me railing about the right field home run porch at Yankee Stadium earlier in this screed.) So I'm just comparing players who are contemporaries and leaving the ballpark effects and relative team performance out of it...for now. I have adjusted some of the point values to limit the effect of a lineup or type of event.

But let's just BREAKDOWN my formula and apply them to the above-mentioned 6 hitters. Let's start with Jose Altuve.

TOTAL BASES are of course all his hits added up. 1 for a single, 3 for a triple...etc. Jose's Total: 323

WALKS provide more opportunities for his team to score runs by putting him on base. JT: 58

HIT BY PITCHES likewise. 9

SACRIFICE FLIES cost his team an out and outs limit opportunities to score runs. I don't include sacrifice hits because there is a lot of controversy over whether or not bunting a man up hurts a team more by costing it an out than it helps by putting a runner in better scoring position. Also, you almost never see the best hitters on a team bunting to move a man up. You always see the weaker hitters do that. Big hint that sacrifice hits are really the lesser of two evils when a weak hitter is up. The exception would be squeeze plays that score a run. That's a good use of an out most times, but you still don't see the real good hitters do it that often, so I don't include the stat.

A SACRIFICE FLY, on the other hand is a fly ball that scores a run. A good trade of an out for a run, even though sometimes it's not the best thing for a teams' chances. (When you need a five-run rally for instance) Still, I include it here as a positive offensive stat to make up for all the runners-advanced type stats that I DON'T include.

Jose Total: 4

RBIS are included but not runs scored. Both somewhat depend on teammates coming through to put the hitter being studied into an advantageous position to score or drive in runs. So I include one and not the other. That should make the stat break even so to speak. And batting in runs is one of the few clutch moments that has any kind of measurement at all. It's a big deal for a team to have someone who drives in a run when it's out there, available. JT: 81

STOLEN BASES get the player that much closer to scoring a run and also help the team by disrupting the pitcher. It's an obvious positive offensive act. JT: 32

Those are the main offensive events, with adjustments, that can happen as a result of any given plate appearance, in my view. I add them up and give them each a weight of 1 unit.

JOSE ALTUVE 2017 OFFENSIVE PLUSES: 507

And now the negatives:

STRIKE OUTS only hurt a team. They do nothing positive with the possible exception of at least not hitting into a double play. Thus we sometimes cheer when a pitcher strikes out instead of grounding into a made to order. Anyway, K's should cost a hitter production points. This balances out calling other outs point-neutral. Some outs are worse than others. Jose Altuve Ks in 2017: 84

GROUNDING INTO DOUBLE PLAYS not only isn't a positive for the hitter, it also costs him an additional runner on the bases and another out. Punish him point wise! Jose: 19

CAUGHT STEALING eliminates the point you just got for your walk or your hit. (And if you got caught stealing home it costs you the three base gain you and your team just made!) Bill James says being caught stealing hurts a team twice as much as it helps a team to steal a base and get into scoring position. Still, Bill James be damned. I'm just counting them one point off. Jose: 6

JOSE ALTUVE'S 2017 OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION MINUSES: 109

So Jose's raw number is 398. It took Altuve 662 plate appearances to produce this total. Therefore:

JOSE ALTUVE 2017 OP: .601

Here's the results of the six players I've examined:

GIANCARLO STANTON 2017 OP: .717

MIKE TROUT 2017 OP: .690

JOE VOTTO 2017 OP: .673

BRYCE HARPER 2017 OP: .604

JOSE ALTUVE 2017 OP: .601

AARON JUDGE 2017 OP: .549 (all those K's hurt his OP)

For historical reference let's look at Hack Wilson again and then at Ruth, Williams, Mantle, and Musial and a few more legends...their best seasons. Any stat devised to measure offensive success has to have these guys at or near the top before you adjust for parks, conditions, league strike out averages etc. etc.

HACK WILSON 1930 OP: .913

TED WILLIAMS 1941 OP: .939

MICKEY MANTLE 1956 OP: .813

STAN MUSIAL 1948 OP: .855

TY COBB 1911 OP: .837 (estimated caught stealing 30)

JOE DIMAGGIO 1937 OP: .896

ROGERS HORNSBY 1922 OP:.885

LOU GEHRIG 1931 OP: .896

...and by some strange coincidence, Babe Ruth's best stat year 1921...comes out exactly 1.00. that's the highest I calculated and probably the highest ever recorded. It means that, on average, something good happened for his team virtually every time Ruth came to the plate.

(Note: in some of these earlier years there are no stats for caught stealing, GDPs or Sac Flies so these all would probably be a little lower)

What does it all mean? Nothing changes. The great offensive performances of all time are still intact. The guys you expected to be high up are high up. I need to work on park effects and especially the general level of offense in baseball in any given era. Also potency of the surrounding lineup of a given player. When I figure all that out I'll let you know.

Meanwhile it seems like Giancarlo had the best offensive year in 2017 by a small margin over Mike Trout, but a large margin over everybody else. We must also take into account that Trout and Harper were hurt for about 50 games each. So even though their OPs were numbers per plate appearance, we should factor in durability issues and give credit to those players who manage to stay on the field more. Cobb and Musial and Gehrig and Judge and Votto were always in the lineup. Harper, Stanton and Mantle were not.

ITEM 9: ANSWER TO LAST POST'S STUMPER

The only player to have been active in the major leagues during the careers of both Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron was Phil Cavaretta. He came up with the Cubs in 1934 when Ruth was just closing it down. And he lasted until 1955 with the White Sox during Hank Aaron's second year in the Bigs.

Phil was mostly a first baseman for the Cubs all that time in between. He won the batting title (.355) and the MVP for the Cubbies in their World Series year of 1945.

See you next time!!

--Marco