Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2017: Your Team has been Eclipsed!

MARCO' S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: “YOUR TEAM HAS BEEN ECLIPSED!”

PART ONE: TOTALITY

It's horrible. The eclipse coursed diagonally across the United States and wherever it's shadow fell, there another baseball team's fortunes collapsed!

If the eclipse is total over your home park, you are doomed this season. (If you have a domed stadium then you are doomed in your dome. Dome-doomed.) And the closer your team was to the path of superstitious obliteration symbolically represented by this astronomical phenomenon, the stronger the negative effect.

Therefore: The following teams can say goodbye to their playoff hopes …

Kansas City, St. Louis, and Atlanta. Doom! Doom ! (And Atlanta was a shoo-in, right?)

Seattle, Denver, Chicago (both teams!) and Cincinnati? You're too close...better make some last minute trades if you want to counteract the Bad Juju.

You can't fight Totality.

PART TWO: THE FICKLE FINGER OF FORTUNE DEPARTMENT

You know what I hate? I hate it when star baseball players get hurt right before the stretch run for the Playoffs.

I want to see what Yu Darvish could do for the Dodgers. The Yankees need a healthy Tanaka. Boston likewise with David Price and Pomeranz. It looked like Arenado might miss significant time with Colorado but he healed up fast from a pitch on his wrist. I don't want Houston to play without Correa….I want Carlos pounding the ball right behind Jose Altuve. Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana and Andrew Miller are all recent injuries for Cleveland, a franchise that deserves a break if any team ever has.

But the worst hit was on the Washington Nationals.

The Nats could have had this lineup all season if it wasn't for their rotten, rotten injury luck:

Tre Turner ss

Adam Eaton lf

Bryce Harper rf

Ryan Zimmerman 1b

Danny Murphy 2b

Anthony Rendon 3b

Matt Weiters c

Michael Taylor cf

….and Jason Werth to platoon in the outfield or DH in American League parks.

They have four guys currently in the top fifteen for batting average, on-base, slugging, OPS...and who knows what kind of stats Eaton would have put up with this lineup batting him in. He'd of probably scored 130 runs this year.

I wanted to see them go up against Kershaw and the Dodgers again with that lineup. How about against Houston with their powerful hitters? It would have been fun...but...

Right now Harper has a bad knee (hurt when he slipped on a wet Danger-base, which I have damned here often...MLB has listened and is considering ideas for soft bases! Memory foam, MLB!)

Werth Might be back from a broken foot in September. Trea Turner Might be back in September from a broken wrist. Eaton is out for the season with a torn ACL (yep...stepped on a base and wham!)

No, I'm not a Nats fan. But that lineup could have been one of the best since the Big Red Machine or the mid 90's Cleveland Indians. I regret not seeing them in the Playoffs at their best. They're still formidible but if they had remained uninjured and their hitters had delivered at the level they had maintained that would have been something.

PART THREE: BLUEPRINT FOR SUCCESS

Almost all good MLB teams have a few basic things in common. “Good” being defined as teams that play at least .500 ball and are therefore Playoff contenders. Let me sketch it out briefly:

Offensively a good team will have…

1/a good leadoff man

2/at least two good hitters (for average) in the top 5 of the batting order

3/at least two power hitters in the middle of the order

Defensively…

1/average or better fielders at catcher, short, second base and center field (not just competent...every team in baseball has competent fielders at these positions. If you can't play shortstop they move you or let you go. Maybe if you're a super hitter like Danny Murphy of the Nats you can stay at second base even if you are Manos de Piedra (yep...that's you Danny) as a fielder. Bad catchers don't stay at catcher except in emergencies...good catchers stay in the lineup even if they hit .190)

2/an Ace starter and at least one other better than average starter

3/a good closer and at least 3 other competent relievers with a good mix of righties and lefties

Leadership…

1/an inspirational team leader

2/at least one gritty, hard-nosed player who leads by example

3/a very large Beast-who-Walks to back everybody up in a rhubarb

4/A Team Clown to keep everybody loose

Now, a World Series contender ups the ante at two or more of these slots. Offensively, that leadoff hitter might also lead the league in steals. Maybe one of those average hitters is somebody like Stan Musial or Wade Boggs. Maybe they have good hitters in the top 7 spots of the order like Washington did before the injuries. Instead of two power hitters in the middle of the lineup they have 4 and one of them is a Giancarlo Stanton who hits 50+ bombs. (sidenote: Mattingly's decision to bat Stanton second in the order just behind Gordon and in front of Yelich and Ozuna was a stroke of genius.)

Defensively, one of those up the middle fielders is a gold Glove finalist. One Ozzie

Smith or Yadi Molina type can make a hell of a difference to a team. Maybe your Ace is a Kershaw, a Scherzer or a Sale. Your closer is Mariano, say...or you have 3 guys in a row like the Nasty Boys of the 1990 Reds.

What if your inspirational team leader is Cal Ripken, Willie Stargell or David Ortiz? And your hard-nose is Pete Rose. Think Pete didn't set an example to every team he was ever on? What was it like to have Don Baylor come out to a melee in the infield and just stand there looking at the other team?

Team clowns are important too. They help even out the stress. Remember the stories about Rizzo doing his little naked cheerleading dance on the table in the Cub's locker room?

As an example, I looked at the 1975 Red Sox (cause I know them pretty well )

Red Sox:

leadoff: a problem spot all year. Juan Beniquez was leadoff for opening day. He got hurt and they tried Bernie Carbo and Cecil Cooper.

good average hitters in Lynn and Rice and Cooper.

Power from Lynn, Yaz, Rice and Evans. Pretty impressive. A deep lineup.

Better than average up the middle with Lynn in center winning the gold glove that year. Fisk, Burleson, Evans, Yaz and even Beniquez all won gold gloves in their careers. I guess the Sox had pretty good D!

Ace: Luis Tiant with Bill Lee, Rick Wise and Reggie Cleveland all pitching well behind him.

Closer and pen: Dick Drago closed with Roger Moret and Jim Burton the key lefties. Underwhelming.

Inspirational team leader: Yaz...the Hall of Famer

Grit-Meister: Carlton Fisk, Yaz

Beast who Walks: Jim Rice

Clown: Tiant and Bill Lee

That's just one example, but if you study your history, you'll find that this blueprint holds true for the very top teams. When a team doesn't match up with the classic format, it's usually because either their ballpark changes the nature of the game for that team or else they are so overwhelmingly good in one or two categories that it doesn't matter what else they have. Examples:

The L.A. Dodgers of the 1960s were a terrible hitting team because of Dodger Stadium. They made up for it with great starting pitchers and a running game.

The Kansas City Royals of the last few years had no big hitting stats. (Again...ballpark) They won with defense, speed and a lights out bullpen.

Now let's look at the main contenders this season:

Boston Red Sox:

They can't bat Betts leadoff and in the third slot at the same time, can they? So they're confused at leadoff.

They have Pedroia, Betts, Benitendi and Bogaerts all hitting for pretty high average and that's their strength. Much less power than a normal winner and that will haunt them when they face top Aces and can't string together 4 or 5 hits for rallies anymore. That's when you need a walk-and-a-homer type offense to beat those power pitchers.

Their defense is awesome in the outfield...Jackie Bradley Jr. is one of the very best in center and Betts likewise in right. Bogaerts and Pedroia both above average at the keystone, and solid defensive catchers.

Sale the consummate Ace but injuries have weakened the other starting slots. If Porcello can keep it together they'll have a much better chance. The bullpen is weak except for closer, where Kimbrel has been awesome. They don't have good lefties to neutralize the best leftie hitters.

Leader: Pedroia

Grit: Pedroia

Beast: nobody now that Papi is gone. Hanley Ramirez has the body but not the mindset of an “enforcer”.

Clown: Betts...his name is Mookie for God's sakes.

The Sox have the Blueprint in high average hitters, defense, Ace and Closer. They have a good leader in Pedroia when he's healthy. I think they're lacking at leadoff, power bats (unless that Devers kid keeps hitting taters) starters after Sale and the bullpen in general. No good leftie! Also, when Pedroia is out they miss his leadership with such a young team.

Cleveland Indians:

Lindor has been leading off. His OBP is low but he has some pop and can run. He should probably hit second. Brantley and Ramirez have hit for average this year. Encarnacion, Santana and recent acquisition Jay Bruce are all good power bats. They are pretty strong 1 through 6 in the order.

Defense great with Lindor and Zimmer at short and center. Kluber is a true Ace and Carrasco a great number 2. Bullpen a major strength...especially when Andrew Miller is healthy.

Leader: Lindor, Kluber

Grit: Jason Kipnis

Beast: Encarnacion. He's only 6'1” 230 lbs but he's solid and strong and just looks formidable. Andrew Miller is 6'7” put pitchers are notorious wussies in fights 'cause they're afraid of breaking their hands or hurting their shoulders or getting a hangnail. Don't count on a pitcher in a fight. (Except for Nolan Ryan...last of the Western Heroes!)

Clown: Lonnie Chisenhall...he drove the bus to the hotel after a clutch hit.

I think the Indians exceed the Blueprint norms in every department except maybe leadoff.

Houston Astros:

Leadoff: Springer. Not your typical leadoff guy. But he's got 28 homers, 79 ribbies and his on-base is ..378. Who's gonna complain about that?

Hitting: Altuve and Correa both hit for average and Jose will likely win the title. Power? 11 guys are going to hit close to twenty homers!!! Strongest lineup 1 through 9 in the AL. Only Washington at full strength tops them in MLB.

Defense: great keystone combo in Correa and Altuve. Strong outfield too. They need McCann back at catcher. Keuchel is the Ace but his injury bothers me. It lasted a long, long time and he's just throwing well again. I don't think Brad Peacock or Charlie Morton scare anybody as a number 2 starter and McCullers is on the DL. McHugh just off. Trouble! Bullpen is flat out bad after Ken Giles and Chris Devenski.

Leader: Altuve

Grit: Altuve

Beast: Evan Gattis

Clown: Altuve

I'd say Altuve is the key to their success in so many ways. (He's also stolen 26 bases) What a player! But trouble with the pitching staff could undo the Astros.

Washington Nationals: (I kind of covered them above)

Leadoff: Trea Turner when healthy... otherwise by committee

Hitting: 5 good ones as mentioned above. Four good power bats too. Deep and dangerous lineup.

Defense: without Turner at short they are suspect up the middle. A great Ace in Scherzer and backup in Strassburg (if healthy) and Gio Gonzalez. Recent additions Blanton, Kinzler and Doolittle give them something to work with in the bullpen but they have a lot to prove there.

Leader: Zimmerman

Grit: Murphy and Harper

Beast: Matt Weiters and Werth

Clown: Scherzer (the Nats are a serious team with a lots of egos and headcases. Scherzer has s screw loose and likes to get strange liquids poured over his head after throwing no-hitters. Manager Dusty Baker is also pretty loose)

Their hitting and their Ace make up for their deficiencies in the Bullpen and in the infield. If they get healthy for the playoffs I rank them number two likeliest to win it all.

Chicago Adorables:

Leadoff: I think this and the loss of retired catcher David Ross jinxed the Cubbies this season. They lost their leadoff man in Dexter Fowler and never replaced him. They've tried four or five players there and nobody fits. Lester hasn't been the same pitcher without Ross.

Hitters: the Cubs don't have any high batting average hitters. Bryant (.289) is getting hotter after the break, but Zobrist is still batting .226. Schwarber? Don't ask! They have a lot of home run potential in Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Ian Happ, Wilson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. This also gives them a more dangerous lineup than their batting averages and on base percentages would indicate.

Defense: one of the best infields in baseball and good enough elsewhere. But...shortstop Addison Russell has the dreaded plantar fascitis. If Contreras stays hurt, they need help at catcher. (They traded for Avila from the Tigers but he's been injured a lot too.) Their Ace at this time is Arrieta. Lester got hurt and Stork Hendricks just got back from the DL. Lackey too. They traded for Jose Quintana who might save them in the rotation. Closer Wade Davis has serviceable but not stellar backup in the pen.

Leader: Rizzo

Grit: Heyward….the man came back from a fastball to the face and saved them in the Series by quietly reminding them how good they were during a rain delay movie moment.

Beast: He's a nice beast. He's a cute beast. But he's scary strong. Kris Bryant!

Clown: Rizzo and Manager Joe Maddon

The Adorables are hard to figure this year. They've had the best record in baseball since the All Star break, so maybe they've shaken off the cobwebs. However, they only lead the Central by 2 games.

They are truly messed up at leadoff and the offense has been bad all year despite their ability to hit four-baggers. Despite their troubles at short and catcher the Cubs are a top defensive team. Arrieta is looking good in the second half and Wade Davis was an All Star. I think their pitching is still well above average. Also, the Cubs have that fighting spirit they earned in their storybook 2016 season. They are still a team to contend with...but they are a team with holes.

Los Angeles Dodgers:

The team that forgot how to lose. What a resurrection! From a bunch of headcases spitting at each other behind their backs they've become a loose bunch of winners under the Love Guru Dave Roberts. (Exhibit number 1….Yasiel Puig) They have a perfect mix of young lions and old gunners and deep, deep pitching. They are 55-14 since June 1!

Leadoff: Chris Taylor has been a find.

Hitters: Justin Turner .355, Corey Seager .300, Taylor .311.

Those three plus Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez (now that Joc Peterson is sent down) and Yasiel Puig give them at least a seven stud lineup every night. 6 guys will hit over 20 dings.

Defense: plenty good up the middle and Puig has one of the best arms ever in right. When Kershaw gets back they have him, Alex Wood, Maeda and now Yu Darvish to start. The Dodgers are loaded.

Kenly Jansen is one of the best closers and Luis Avilan is the key leftie in the pen. They can use their extra starters out there too.

Leader: Dave Roberts

Grit: Chase Utley

Beast: Kenley Jansen is 6'5” 275 if he can get from the bullpen to the infield fast enough to clobber somebody. He's a pitcher but he's also Dutch and he just looks like he could break you in half.

Clown: It was Scott Van Slyke for years but they traded him. I bet now they're sorry. I guess Puig has to be the clown now.

The Dodgers are Destiny's Darlings this year. They have no real holes and their many strengths are extra strong. They are the run away favorites to win it all this year. I give Washington a slugger's chance if Scherzer rises to the occasion, but I think the Dodgers will be facing the Cleveland Indians in the 2017 World Series.

LAST LICKS:

There was a great “This Day in Baseball” item in today's Austin paper. I quote:

“1886: Cincinnati outfielder Abner Powell was literally brought down by the dog days of summer. Chicken Wolf of the Louisville Colonels hit a deep drive and Powell took off after it, joined by a dog that had been sleeping by the outfield fence. The dog bit Powell's leg before the outfielder could get to the ball and wouldn't let go as Wolf scored on a game-winning inside-the-park homer.”

Could we please get New York to take a look at the replay on that?