Saturday, July 8, 2017

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2017: Baseball...Even Better than Team Handball!!


MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: BASEBALL...EVEN BETTER THAN TEAM HANDBALL!

I've been in Europe for two weeks with the Mizziz. We had a lovely time cruising down the Danube in one of those Viking boats you see on PBS all the time. Must admit, it was cushy, tasty and relaxing. We loved Budapest, the Austrian countryside and the Czech wine country.

After our Central European sojourn we stopped off in Iceland for a little midnight sun action...(it never goes down in the summer) and were entertained by all of my wife's Icelandic relatives. Ten minutes from Reykjavik you can see geysers, waterfalls, glaciers and volcanoes. They say you can see elves too but I didn't. I looked though. If you could see that country you'd believe in mythical creatures too….it's truly awe inspiring.

One misfortune on our trip: no baseball! My cell phone died a mysterious and hideous death somewhere in Slovakia and never recovered. No scores! I was reduced to watching Team Handball on the tele with my Iceland in-laws. They were quite excited by this spectacle. It seemed like basketball with unlimited fouling to me, but I am not quite initiated of course.

So anyway, we get back to the States and I am curious as to what has transpired baseball-wise in my beloved country. Hah! I was gratified to see that all my predictions were coming true! Well...not really…

NL East:

We knew that Philly and Atlanta would be rebuilding and the field should be clear for Washington and New York to duke it out. But New York had already folded by May and they sure look bad now. Harvey, Syndergaard, Matz, and Familia all hurt or indicted. Team ERA 5.00. So much for competition in the East. The Mets have been reduced to sending Yoenis Cespedes out to beg Yasiel Puig not to show them up by strutting after he homers. What?...Reggie wasn't available?

Florida has some hitters but no pitching. Maybe if Jeter buys that team the Marlins will somehow rally. I can't help but think that they should have just let Florida have Spring Training instead of basing major league teams there. Tampa and Miami don't deserve major league baseball the way they haven't supported their teams.

Atlanta has really improved and has gotten lucky with acquisitions like Brandon Phillips and Matt Adams. Inciarte has been a shocking surprise as a hitter with 102 knocks. They lost Freddie Freeman for awhile but have maintained. Looks like the Braves will be able to contend soon if their young pitchers cooperate.

Philly has gone backwards...all the young hitters who looked so promising last year are barely hitting and even loafing (Franco). The minor league pitchers are a disaster too. What happened? Fire somebody, Philly.

Washington finally has all their hitters hot at the same time. Their lineup of Trea Turner, Harper, Zimmerman, Murphy and Rendon is chewing up pitching staffs. Led by Scherzer, the pitching is great too, except in the bullpen. If they get a closer they could win it all.

Ooops! Tre Turner just got his wrist broken. That's too bad because he was starting to dominate games just with his speed. Very exciting player. No matter...the Nats will cruise to the division title.

NL Central:

What happened, Cubbies? Too much adoration, probably. You started to think your armpits smell like honeydew or something after your storybook 2016. Somebody forgot to set the alarm clock for this season. They're a .500 team with inconsistent pitching and no real offense. Schwarber went to the minors trying to remember how to hit. That poor guy really got screwed up. He's got to get back to just meeting the ball and hitting to all fields. And check his eyesight. He's missing some of those pitches badly. I guess the kid is so great in the clubhouse that his teammates wanted him back anyway. That's kind of heart-warming.

Funny thing is, the Central is just laying there waiting for the Cubs to take it back. They're only four games out! One hot streak away. If they get Zobrist, Heyward, Hendricks and Brett Anderson back and Schwarber recovers his mojo they could still dominate this division. Currently, however, you have to rate them as the fold-job of the year.

St. Louis is even more wretched than the Cubs. What the hell is happening down there? I know they've won 7 of 8 lately, but how have they managed to remain below .500 in that weak division?

You can't expect anything out of Cincinnati with that pitching staff and Scooter Gennett ain't gonna hit 4 homers in every game! (I even heard about that in Slovakia!)

Pittsburgh is just waiting to see who wants to take their stars off their hands. Since Starling Marte betrayed them with PEDS, he should be first to go.

Milwaukee is a surprise, I grant you, but they are hardly a juggernaut. I like that guy Eric Thames who learned to hit curve balls in the Korean League, though. Good story, that. But after an historic start, he's batting .169 in June.

NL West:

Finally! Some excellence! Three teams playing over .600 ball! The Rockies have shown they are a force. They are 26-21 on the road! That's really incredible for a Rockies team that is always better at Coors Field. Nolan Arenado is a strong MVP candidate. And Mark Reynolds has been epic and among the league leaders in homers and ribbies. Even more amazing...he's batting .295! This from a guy who only once hit over .230 in 8 full seasons in the majors. (He did a little better in a couple of half seasons.) The Mark Reynolds who led the league in striking out 4 years in a row from 2008 to 2011, including the all time record of 223 in 2009! The wonders of Coors Field, I guess. However, the Rockheads have picked a bad time to go sour...losing the last 8 games while Los Angeles has reeled off 10 straight wins. Still a strong wild card position though.

Arizona is Diamondhumping the shit out of the ball! Finally Goldschmidt (my MVP favorite) has some guys hitting in front of and behind him and they are a solid second place team. Greinke is back as a staff Ace. They'd be the favorites if it weren't for…

The Dodgers! My prediction that this is their year is looking better all the time. Even though they lost Adrian Gonzalez and Andrew Toles for a long spell, they have Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger (he's Aaron Judge with a slim Hollywood body!) to plug in. And this guy Bellinger. That beautiful swing! (Of course Joey Gallo has the same swing and he bats .190 and strikes out 300 times a year.) Bellinger is channeling Ted Williams or something with that splendid splintery uppercut from his heels. They just got Justin Turner (.390!) back from an injury and lost Seager for a little while but the Dodgers look really strong. They always seem to step on the gas about this time of the year and durn me if they're not doing it again. They should win the West by plenty, even with Arizona and Colorado playing so much better.

All three of those teams are feeding on the rotting carcasses of the San Diego Pudrigs and the...(hurts to say it) Giants.
It's a shame that Buster Posey is having his best year when the Giants are in last place IN A DIVISION WITH SAN DIEGO IN IT!

AL East:

Okay Aaron Judge...I know I belittled him recently, saying he was the second coming of Shane Spencer. (You remember...Spencer of the 10 homers in 67 at bats in a September Yankee call up many ages ago) but Judge has now finished the first half and is leading the league in homers, ribbies, runs and is even second in batting average! I guess we will be reevaluating Mr. Judge.

In deeply scientific mode I watched reruns of every homer that Judge has hit. I learned this:

1/There are some really bad pitchers in the American League. Almost every homer was hit on a BAD mistake...most of them on balls up in the zone while the catcher was waiting for a breaking pitch on the lower outside corner.

2/His swing is short and contained. No Joey Gallo or Hanley Ramirez type swings where he totally sells out.

3/He likes Yankee Stadium. Only a third of his 30 dings have been hit on the road (9). Since the Yanks have only played 37 games at home vs. 43 on the road, expect a few more long balls out of His Honor.

4/As a probable result of number 3, Judge uses the whole field. He's so strong that he can take pitches out over the plate into the center/right bleachers, no problem. 14 out of 30 homers are to center or right. This makes him a problem to pitch to.

Conclusion: The pitchers of the American League will start giving Judge the Bryce Harper treatment and not throw him anything good at all. Walks be damned. Then we'll see if he's patient enough to compile an on base percentage of
.500+ and help his team win that way. If he expands the zone trying to live up to his press releases he's dead.

Good sign: Judge resisted joining the home run derby at first because he wanted to concentrate on the regular season. I think MLB squeezed him a little bit on that and now he and fellow Yankee bopper Sanchez are both in it. Should be a great showdown with Giancarlo Stanton in Miami...but don't count on homers to right in that Yellowstone Park!

Final word: Aaron Judge is just what baseball needs...a big (real big!), sweet natured, slightly self-deprecating Man Child in the Promised Land that kids love and Yankee announcers lose bladder control over.

The Yankees as a team are one of the surprises of MLB as the first half ends. They slumped recently to give up the top position to Boston but their young everyday players are pretty good, they're getting contributions from enigmas like Ellsbury and Gardner and they have won some games late to build fan interest. Unfortunately their starting staff is eroding fast and their bullpen is getting tired.

The Red Sox have been losing key players to the DL all season but are still somehow in first place. They don't hit homers but peck out singles and take walks and keep players on base all the time. They picked up Doug Fister of all people to be the fifth starter while they wait for Eduardo Rodriguez to heal...(they always seem to be waiting for Eduardo to heal). The Sox have one distinct advantage in this division: They have the dominant starter in Chris Sale and the dominant closer in Craig Kimbrel. Both should get heavy Cy Young consideration. Kimbrel's WHIP is 0.518...unheard of. He's only allowed 14 hits and 5 walks in 36 innings and has struck out 65 men. And that, my friends, is a CLOSER.

Here's another of my predictions that is looking pretty shaky: I picked Tampa Bay to finish last in the East. Instead, they might be the big competition for Boston to win it. AS usual, the Rays have a good rotation led by Chris Archer, Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi. The bullpen is weak, but they've finally got Evan Longoria some offensive help with Logan Morrison, Steve Souza and Corey Dickerson all hitting long balls. The Rays have a 3-game set coming up with Boston just before the All-Star break that might be very interesting.

Baltimore was a boutique pick to win the East in some quarters but I said they didn't have enough starting pitching. So far, I was right.

And Toronto can't get to .500 after their execrable April. They lost too many starters and without Edwin Encarnacion their offense has crumbled. They're at the bottom of the League in every important offensive category. Only Justin Smoak is having an outstanding season. Sometimes one player can make a huge difference in a team's morale. Big Papi Ortiz was that kind of guy for Boston and I think the Sox are still looking around the dugout for him when they need a big hit. I think Encarnacion was that player for Toronto.

AL Central:

...And Edwin Encarnacion is plying his clutchness over in Cleveland. As usual, he flopped around looking terrible all Spring while the weather was cold and as soon as it warmed up he started raking. Cleveland has a balanced offense with Chisenhall, Santana, Brantley and 24 year old third baseman Jose Ramirez all performing. Lindor looked like the offensive leader early and has a surprising 14 homers. But I think the homers went to his head and he's slumped to
.248 and only a .309 on base percentage. Cleveland has by far the best pitching in the division, led by starters Kluber and Carrasco and reliever Andrew Miller.

It's a shocker that Cleveland hasn't pulled away yet. Kansas City and Minnesota have kept pace and are only 3 games out, even with .500 records.

Minnesota, I think, has played over its head. They've allowed a lot more runs than they've scored, and that fact should prove out in the second half.

Kansas City started so slow that just getting to .500 has been a major achievement. Pride will keep the front office from selling off the stars, but free agent inevitability will soon decimate the Royals. Facts of Life. They're surging now so maybe they have one more party in 'em before they break up the old gang. I love the guys on that team and it's been too short.

The Chicago White Sox got screwed by the schedule makers. They played 44 road games vs. only 34 home games through the end of June. No wonder they're in last place. No other team has had to exhaust themselves on the road as much as the White Sox and they have a legitimate complaint with the league.

The Detroit Tigers. As usual their pitching went south on them. Especially the bullpen. Verlander is only too mortal. They cut KRod. And this year their offense hasn't been potent enough to compensate. Sad to watch.

AL West:

Last year the Astros had the second most strikeouts in the league with 1452. They were 9th in homers with 198. This year they have the fewest Ks in the league with 588 and the most homers with 142. That's a stunning reversal for their offense. In addition to Altuve, Correa and Springer having awesome seasons, (which you kind of anticipated) their new guys at third (Bregman) and first (Gurriel) have really come through and Marisnick's new upper cut swing has him hitting with power. Marwin Gonzalez has been a wonder as a utility guy, hitting .313 with 15 taters and 51 ribbs. So that batting order is now deep, deep. The Astros are first in runs, hits, doubles, homers, ribbies, average, on-base percentage, slugging...you get the picture. Welcome to the fun house, rest of the AL.

If the hitting wasn't enough to turn it around, the pitching is good. Kuechel started looking Cy Youngish again until he got hurt. They have the luxury of keeping him out until he's good and healed. McCullers and Morton have been strong starters and Devenski and Will Harris are hellacious in the bullpen. They'll even get McHugh back for the last month or so. Houston...(Oh My God! Houston!) ...could win 110 games!

I had Texas and Seattle real close to Houston for the division but I really didn't think Houston could be this good. And I really thought Seattle would be better. Their pitching staff got assassinated and they've rolled over and played dead ever since.

There are a lot of Zombie teams on the West Coast all of a sudden...Seattle and San Francisco have joined Oakland and San Diego as walking deaders. And the Angels are on the brink of joining the marching groaners.

Texas just doesn't have the pitching to make a run at Houston. They have 8 guys with double-figure homers. The Rangers are 2nd in the league to Houston in that and 3rd in runs scored. But they're way down the list in everything else...especially pitching.

Like I said, the Angels are not a good team, but they're in second place by default...albeit 16 games back!

And Oakland. What can I say about Oakland? Well...they're 20 and a half games behind Houston. There. Is that enough?
Who will they trade Sonny Gray to? That's the only interesting thing about the A's.

So at the break, betting money should be on either the Dodgers or the Nationals in the NL with only Milwaukee, St. Louis, Chicago, Colorado and Arizona challenging. Of those last five, I think only Arizona could really do something.

The AL has Houston way above every other team with Boston and Cleveland maybe rising to the occasion. I think New York, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Kansas City are all good Wild Card contenders and of those I'd bet on Kansas City being the most dangerous.

Enjoy the all Star game and I'll be back when the second half gets going.

Marco





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