MARCO'S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: BASEBALL...EVEN BETTER THAN TEAM
HANDBALL!
I've
been in Europe for two weeks with the Mizziz. We had a lovely time
cruising down the Danube in one of those Viking boats you see on PBS
all the time. Must admit, it was cushy, tasty and relaxing. We loved
Budapest, the Austrian countryside and the Czech wine country.
After
our Central European sojourn we stopped off in Iceland for a little
midnight sun action...(it never goes down in the summer) and were
entertained by all of my wife's Icelandic relatives. Ten minutes from
Reykjavik you can see geysers, waterfalls, glaciers and volcanoes.
They say you can see elves too but I didn't. I looked though. If you
could see that country you'd believe in mythical creatures too….it's
truly awe inspiring.
One
misfortune on our trip: no baseball! My cell phone died a mysterious
and hideous death somewhere in Slovakia and never recovered. No
scores! I was reduced to watching Team Handball on the tele with my
Iceland in-laws. They were quite excited by this spectacle. It seemed
like basketball with unlimited fouling to me, but I am not quite
initiated of course.
So
anyway, we get back to the States and I am curious as to what has
transpired baseball-wise in my beloved country. Hah! I was gratified
to see that all my predictions were coming true! Well...not really…
NL
East:
We
knew that Philly and Atlanta would be rebuilding and the field should
be clear for Washington and New York to duke it out. But New York had
already folded by May and they sure look bad now. Harvey,
Syndergaard, Matz, and
Familia all hurt or indicted. Team ERA 5.00. So much for
competition in the East. The Mets have been reduced to sending Yoenis
Cespedes out to beg Yasiel Puig not to show them up by
strutting after he homers. What?...Reggie wasn't available?
Florida
has some hitters but no pitching. Maybe if Jeter buys that
team the Marlins will somehow rally. I can't help but think that they
should have just let Florida have Spring Training instead of basing
major league teams there. Tampa and Miami don't deserve major league
baseball the way they haven't supported their teams.
Atlanta
has really improved and has gotten lucky with acquisitions like
Brandon Phillips and
Matt Adams. Inciarte has been a shocking surprise as a
hitter with 102 knocks. They lost Freddie Freeman for awhile
but have maintained. Looks like the Braves will be able to contend
soon if their young pitchers cooperate.
Philly
has gone backwards...all the young hitters who looked so promising
last year are barely hitting and even loafing (Franco). The
minor league pitchers are a disaster too. What happened? Fire
somebody, Philly.
Washington
finally has all their hitters hot at the same time. Their lineup of
Trea Turner, Harper, Zimmerman, Murphy and Rendon is chewing
up pitching staffs. Led by Scherzer, the pitching is great too,
except in the bullpen. If they get a closer they could win it all.
Ooops!
Tre Turner just got his wrist broken. That's too bad because he was
starting to dominate games just with his speed. Very exciting player.
No matter...the Nats will cruise to the division title.
NL
Central:
What
happened, Cubbies? Too much adoration, probably. You started
to think your armpits smell like honeydew or something after your
storybook 2016. Somebody forgot to set the alarm clock for this
season. They're a .500 team with inconsistent pitching and no real
offense. Schwarber went to the minors trying to remember how
to hit. That poor guy really got screwed up. He's got to get back to
just meeting the ball and hitting to all fields. And check his
eyesight. He's missing some of those pitches badly. I guess the kid
is so great in the clubhouse that his teammates wanted him back
anyway. That's kind of heart-warming.
Funny
thing is, the Central is just laying there waiting for the Cubs to
take it back. They're only four games out! One hot streak away. If
they get Zobrist, Heyward, Hendricks and
Brett Anderson back and Schwarber recovers his mojo they could
still dominate this division. Currently, however, you have to rate
them as the fold-job of the year.
St.
Louis is even more wretched than the Cubs. What the hell is
happening down there? I know they've won 7 of 8 lately, but how have
they managed to remain below .500 in that weak division?
You
can't expect anything out of Cincinnati with that pitching
staff and Scooter Gennett ain't gonna hit 4 homers in every
game! (I even heard about that in Slovakia!)
Pittsburgh
is just waiting to see who wants to take their stars off their hands.
Since Starling Marte betrayed them with PEDS, he should be
first to go.
Milwaukee
is a surprise, I grant you, but they are hardly a juggernaut. I like
that guy Eric Thames who learned to hit curve balls in
the Korean League, though. Good story, that. But after an historic
start, he's batting .169 in June.
NL
West:
Finally!
Some excellence! Three teams playing over .600 ball! The Rockies
have shown they are a force. They are 26-21 on the road! That's
really incredible for a Rockies team that is always better at Coors
Field. Nolan Arenado is a strong MVP candidate. And Mark
Reynolds has been epic and among the league leaders in homers and
ribbies. Even more amazing...he's batting .295! This from a guy who
only once hit over .230 in 8 full seasons in the majors. (He did a
little better in a couple of half seasons.) The Mark Reynolds who led
the league in striking out 4 years in a row from 2008 to 2011,
including the all time record of 223 in 2009! The wonders of Coors
Field, I guess. However, the Rockheads have picked a bad time to go
sour...losing the last 8 games while Los Angeles has reeled off 10
straight wins. Still a strong wild card position though.
Arizona
is Diamondhumping the shit out of the ball! Finally Goldschmidt
(my MVP favorite) has some guys hitting in front of and behind him
and they are a solid second place team. Greinke is back as a
staff Ace. They'd be the favorites if it weren't for…
The
Dodgers! My prediction that this is their year is
looking better all the time. Even though they lost Adrian Gonzalez
and Andrew Toles
for a long spell, they have Chris Taylor and
Cody Bellinger (he's Aaron Judge with a slim Hollywood
body!) to plug in. And this guy Bellinger. That beautiful swing! (Of
course Joey Gallo has the same swing and he bats .190 and
strikes out 300 times a year.) Bellinger is channeling Ted Williams
or something with that splendid splintery uppercut from his heels.
They just got Justin Turner (.390!) back from an injury and
lost Seager for a little while but the Dodgers look really
strong. They always seem to step on the gas about this time of the
year and durn me if they're not doing it again. They should win the
West by plenty, even with Arizona and Colorado playing so much
better.
All
three of those teams are feeding on the rotting carcasses of the San
Diego Pudrigs and the...(hurts to say it) Giants.
It's
a shame that Buster Posey is having his best year when the
Giants are in last place IN A DIVISION WITH SAN DIEGO IN IT!
AL
East:
Okay
Aaron
Judge...I
know I belittled him recently,
saying he was the second coming of Shane
Spencer.
(You remember...Spencer
of the 10
homers in 67 at bats in a September Yankee
call
up many ages ago) but Judge has now finished the first half and is
leading the league in homers, ribbies, runs and is
even
second
in batting
average!
I
guess we will be reevaluating Mr. Judge.
In
deeply scientific mode I watched reruns of every homer that Judge
has hit. I learned this:
1/There
are some really bad pitchers in the American League. Almost every
homer was hit on a BAD
mistake...most
of them on balls up in the zone while the catcher was waiting for a
breaking pitch on the lower outside corner.
2/His
swing is short and contained. No Joey Gallo or Hanley Ramirez type
swings where he totally sells out.
3/He
likes Yankee Stadium. Only a third of his 30
dings have been hit on the road (9). Since the Yanks have only played
37 games at home vs. 43 on the road, expect a few more long balls out
of His Honor.
4/As
a probable result of number 3, Judge uses the whole field. He's so
strong that he can take pitches out over the plate into
the
center/right
bleachers,
no problem.
14
out of 30
homers are to center or right. This makes him a problem to pitch to.
Conclusion:
The pitchers of the American League will start giving Judge the
Bryce Harper treatment and not throw him anything good at all. Walks
be damned. Then we'll see if he's patient enough to compile an on
base percentage of
.500+
and help his team win that way. If he expands the zone trying to live
up to his press releases he's dead.
Good
sign: Judge resisted joining the home run derby at first because he
wanted
to concentrate on the regular season.
I think MLB squeezed him a little bit on that and now he and fellow
Yankee bopper Sanchez
are both in it. Should be a great showdown with Giancarlo
Stanton
in Miami...but
don't count on homers to right in that Yellowstone Park!
Final
word: Aaron Judge is just what baseball needs...a big (real big!),
sweet natured, slightly self-deprecating Man Child in the Promised
Land that kids love and Yankee announcers lose bladder control over.
The
Yankees as a team are one of the surprises of MLB as the first half
ends. They slumped recently to give up the top position to Boston but
their young everyday players are pretty good, they're getting
contributions from enigmas like Ellsbury
and Gardner
and they have won some games late to build fan interest.
Unfortunately their starting staff is eroding fast and their bullpen
is getting tired.
The
Red Sox have been losing key players to the DL all season but are
still somehow in first place. They don't hit homers but peck out
singles and take walks and keep players on base all the time. They
picked up Doug
Fister
of all people to be the fifth starter while they wait for Eduardo
Rodriguez to heal...(they
always seem to be waiting for Eduardo to heal). The
Sox have one distinct advantage in this division: They have the
dominant starter in
Chris Sale
and the dominant closer in Craig
Kimbrel.
Both should get heavy Cy Young consideration. Kimbrel's WHIP is
0.518...unheard of. He's only allowed 14 hits and 5 walks in 36
innings and has struck out 65 men. And that, my friends, is a CLOSER.
Here's
another of my predictions that is looking pretty shaky: I picked
Tampa Bay to finish last in the East. Instead, they might be
the big competition for Boston to win it. AS usual, the Rays have a
good rotation led by Chris Archer, Alex Cobb and
Jake Odorizzi. The bullpen is weak, but they've finally
got Evan Longoria some offensive help with Logan Morrison,
Steve Souza and Corey
Dickerson all hitting long balls. The Rays have a
3-game set coming up with Boston just before the All-Star break that
might be very interesting.
Baltimore
was a boutique pick to win the East in some quarters but I said
they didn't have enough starting pitching. So far, I was right.
And
Toronto
can't get to .500 after their execrable April. They lost too many
starters and without Edwin
Encarnacion
their
offense has crumbled. They're at the bottom of the League in every
important offensive category. Only
Justin
Smoak
is having an outstanding season. Sometimes
one player can make a huge difference in a team's morale.
Big
Papi Ortiz
was that kind of guy for Boston and I think the Sox are still looking
around the dugout for him when they need a big hit. I
think Encarnacion was that player for Toronto.
AL
Central:
...And
Edwin Encarnacion is plying his clutchness over in Cleveland.
As usual, he flopped around looking terrible all Spring while the
weather was cold and as soon as it warmed up he started raking.
Cleveland has a balanced offense with Chisenhall,
Santana, Brantley
and 24
year
old third baseman Jose
Ramirez
all performing. Lindor
looked
like the offensive leader early and has a surprising 14 homers. But I
think the homers went to his head and he's slumped to
.248
and only a .309 on base percentage. Cleveland
has by far the best pitching in the division, led
by starters Kluber
and
Carrasco
and reliever Andrew
Miller.
It's
a shocker that Cleveland hasn't pulled away yet. Kansas City and
Minnesota have kept pace and are only 3 games out, even with .500
records.
Minnesota,
I think, has played over its head. They've allowed a lot more runs
than they've scored, and that fact should prove out in the second
half.
Kansas
City
started so slow that just getting to .500 has been a major
achievement. Pride will keep the front office from selling off the
stars, but free agent inevitability will soon decimate the Royals.
Facts of Life. They're
surging now so maybe they have one more party in 'em before they
break up the old gang. I love the guys on that team and it's been too
short.
The
Chicago
White Sox
got screwed by the schedule makers. They played 44 road games vs.
only 34 home games through the end of June. No wonder they're in last
place. No other team has had to exhaust themselves on the road as
much as the White Sox and they have a legitimate complaint with the
league.
The
Detroit
Tigers.
As usual their pitching went south on them. Especially the bullpen.
Verlander
is only too mortal. They cut KRod.
And this year their offense hasn't been potent enough to compensate.
Sad to watch.
AL
West:
Last
year the Astros
had the second most strikeouts in the league with 1452. They were
9th
in homers with 198. This year they have the fewest Ks in the league
with 588 and the most homers with 142. That's a stunning reversal for
their offense. In addition to Altuve,
Correa and
Springer
having awesome seasons, (which
you kind of anticipated) their
new guys at third (Bregman)
and first (Gurriel)
have really come through and Marisnick's
new upper cut swing has him hitting with power. Marwin
Gonzalez
has been a wonder as a utility guy, hitting .313 with 15 taters and
51 ribbs. So that batting order is now deep, deep. The Astros
are first in runs, hits, doubles, homers, ribbies, average, on-base
percentage, slugging...you get the picture. Welcome
to the fun house, rest of the AL.
If
the hitting wasn't enough to turn it around, the
pitching is good. Kuechel
started looking Cy Youngish again until he got hurt. They have the
luxury of keeping him out until he's good and healed. McCullers
and
Morton
have been strong
starters
and
Devenski
and Will
Harris
are hellacious in the bullpen. They'll even get McHugh
back for the last month or so. Houston...(Oh My God! Houston!)
...could win 110 games!
I
had Texas
and
Seattle real
close to Houston for the division but I really didn't think Houston
could be this good. And I really thought Seattle would be better.
Their pitching staff got assassinated and they've rolled over and
played dead ever since.
There
are a lot of Zombie teams on the West Coast all of a sudden...Seattle
and San Francisco have joined Oakland
and
San Diego as walking deaders. And the Angels are on the brink of
joining the marching groaners.
Texas
just doesn't have the pitching to make a run at Houston. They have 8
guys with double-figure homers. The Rangers are 2nd
in the league to Houston in that and 3rd
in runs scored. But they're way down the list in everything
else...especially pitching.
Like
I said, the Angels
are
not a good team, but they're in second place by default...albeit 16
games back!
And
Oakland.
What can I say about Oakland? Well...they're 20 and a half games
behind Houston. There. Is that enough?
Who
will they trade Sonny Gray to? That's the only interesting thing
about the A's.
So
at the break, betting money should be on either the Dodgers or the
Nationals in the NL with only Milwaukee, St. Louis, Chicago, Colorado
and Arizona challenging. Of those last five, I think only Arizona
could really do something.
The
AL has Houston way above every other team with Boston and Cleveland
maybe rising to the occasion.
I
think New York, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Kansas City are all good
Wild Card contenders and of those I'd bet on Kansas City being the
most dangerous.
Enjoy
the all Star game and I'll be back when the second half gets going.
Marco
