MARCO'S BASEBALL
BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PLAYOFF SPECIAL
You knew it had
to come. I couldn't contain myself without bombarding your inbox with
my usual line of bullshit about who will win what and why. Well, look
at it this way. How gratifying will it be when all my fearless
predictions are reduced to ash in the face of the hideous reality of
actual baseball facts and you can at least go around the house
saying, “I knew that idiot would get it wrong...why oh why did I
just go out and bet a thousand dollars on the Cleveland Indians?”
No...I'm not
really picking the Indians to go all the way...but they are much more
dangerous than they are getting credit for being. You just haven't
seen them because nobody shows them on television...(something about
ratings being higher for the Boston-New York series?)
Let's talk about
the playoffs in just a minute. Right now I want to discuss a weird
play that happened a week or so ago.
The Nats are
playing Pittsburgh and Bryce Harper of the Nats hits a laser into the
right field corner and is stretching it into a triple. Well, I guess
Kang, the third baseman of the Pirates, thought Harper might try to
go home as the very bad throw came in from the outfield...missing two
cut-off men and going up the line into left field. So Kang fakes a
tag, getting Harper to stumble into an awkward slide and hurt his
thumb. The third base coach was telling him to stand up, but Harper
bit on the fake tag and slid.
Baseball
tradition says this is a no-no. By faking the tag, Kang endangered
Harper. Here, paste this and watch it for yourself.
You
also noticed the very expected result of this play...the Pirates
pitcher A.J.Cole threw one behind Kang's head next time he came up.
(Everybody knew it was coming, and if Cole had just hit him in the
butt, nobody would have done anything. By throwing high behind Kang's
head, he caused a riot. I have said it before...UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD A PITCHER GET AWAY WITH THROWING AT A BATTER'S
HEAD. Just too dangerous. They've got to suspend him. Really. You
can't kill a guy for a fake tag. Hit him in the butt and move
on. I doubt the Pirates would even have complained. Anyway, that's
beside my point.)
My
point is that there is a double standard here. Let me take you back
to the 1991 World Series. Remember that brilliant game where the
Twins, behind Jack Morris at his bulldoggiest, beat the Braves 1-0 in
10 innings in that seventh game? Of course you do. Well, the big play
that probably cost the Bravos the series was in the eighth.
Lonnie
Smith (known as “Skates” for his misadventures on the basepaths)
of the Braves was on first. Terry Pendleton hits a towering double
into left center off the wall. As Lonnie charges to second, he loses
track of the hit somehow and Chuck Knoblaugh ...second basesman of
the Twins....fakes fielding a grounder and fakes a toss to second to
Gagne the shortstop, who has collaborated in the ruse by covering
second and totally deking Smith. Lonnie almost slides, stumbles and
can only make it to third by the time he figures it out. That cost
the Braves the run they needed and probably the series.
Of
course everybody applauds the Twins' infielders for the excellent
deke and mocks Lonnie Smith. Here...paste it and watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM5kHJUBRSE
I agree...bad on Smith and good on the Twins. But isn't this the
same kind of dangerous deke as the Kang/Harper play...only at a
different base? Both infielders were trying to keep a run from
scoring, even though their actions could have (and did in Kang's
case) caused an awkward slide that caused an injury. But because it
was at third, everybody says “you can't do that” with Kang and
because it was at second, “smart play” to Knoblaugh and Gagne.
Baseball recently changed the rules about breaking up a double
play at second with a hard slide. You hardly ever saw an infielder
even complain about having to jump out of the way of high spikes
coming into second because it was considered good baseball for the
runner to do anything to break up the double play. Now you come in
hard and you get Roughned Odor punching your lights out.
Likewise, everybody accepted a runner practically killing a
catcher (who unashamedly blocked the plate without the ball) until
Buster Posey got murdered one day and baseball lost one of its
brightest stars for a year. So they changed the rule.
My point is, baseball has different traditions about what is
allowed depending on the base involved. The interference rule is
called differently and always has been. Come in spikes high at
second, the infielder used to nod and say “good hard play”. Do it
at third and you had a fistfight. Run into the catcher at
home...gutsy ball! Step on the first baseman as you run down the
line...fistfight.
The rule says the runner is not allowed to interfere with the
defensive player's attempt to make the play. But it's a rule that has
never been equitably enforced. The changes in the enforcement at
second and home have helped the game by keeping our players injury
free.
Maybe they'll eventually clarify what should be and shouldn't be
allowed as to deking the runner.
Now, My Hearties, what's gonna happen in the playoffs?
Well, I haven't the slightest idea who is going to win these wild
card games.
Ha! Some pundit I turned out to be. But really, how can you
handicap a one game playoff like that? Any team in baseball could win
that game. The only modifier is the starting pitchers and how hot
they are coming in.
Every once in awhile, a real pitching Titan emerges that you just
can't see anybody beating. And yet they all get beat once in awhile.
Koufax seemed to be unbeatable til the Orioles walloped him in '66.
Gibson seemed unhittable til the Tigers got to him (with a lot of
help from an outfield error by Curt Flood) in '68. In the current era
Kershaw pitches out of his mind til the playoffs. Arrieta looked
unstoppable til this season. And Bumgarner...well more on him later.
If one of those guys is taking the mound, you bet on them. But
they will lose their share. That's baseball.
In the AL wild card matchup tonight, no titans will be starting.
Stroman for the Blue Jays and Tillman for the Orioles are both good
pitchers who have been wildly erratic this season. I don't see either
of them getting to the seventh inning. So it comes down to which
team's big boppers will make the most noise before the bullpens come
into play.
If the Blue Jays get to Tillman and Donaldson or Encarnacion get
hold of one with men on....they can beat the Orioles before that
great bullpen gets going. If they are behind in the eighth, forget
it. Showalter will bring in Zach Britton and that's all she wrote.
Nobody hits that 98 mph SINKER he throws. Most unhittable
pitch since Mike Scott of the Astros had that hard split finger going
in the '80s. (Scott was actually doctoring the ball, but he hid it
well. Britton is probably doing something to the ball too but they
can't catch him. A 98mph pitch shouldn't move that sharply downward.)
The Orioles are one-dimensional. They hit the long ball. That's
it. They don't steal and they only had, I think, 5 triples all year.
Lowest total ever. And Manny Machado has been in a terrible slump.
But they can hit Stroman so they can win it with the bullpen.
I'd like to see the Blue Jays win and get to have a 5 game
death-match with the Rangers in a reprise of last year's debacle. But
I pick the Orioles.
The NL Wild Card is even harder to predict. The Mets have been
living on fumes, pitching-wise. But they have Syndergaard ready for
this one big game. And he's awesome. Also, they are playing at home
and their hitters have been taking turns being the hero every game.
Advantage Mets, right?
One little bitty roadblock, New York, and his name is Bumgarner.
Look up the definition of “gamer” in the baseball dictionary and
you'll see a picture of the big North Carolinian leftie. This guy is
so fierce and so focused and just so damn COMMITTED to beating you.
What a player.
The Giants may not score on Syndergaard. And the Metskies have
Familia coming out of the pen instead of Romo. I predict a 1-0 or 2-1
game, but I am never going to bet against Bumgarner. I just don't
care. He might hit a homer and win his own game. And remember...it's
an even numbered year. Advantage Giants!
If the Giants win the Wild Card game, I pick them to beat the Cubs
as I outlined in my last blog. It's a 5 game series and the Giants
will have both Cueto and Bumgarner pitching on good rest, with
Samardzja, Matt Moore and this new phenom Blach all available to help
the diseased bullpen. I think the Cubs hitters will fold under
pressure. They rely too heavily on Bryant and Rizzo.
The Giants have no hitters to rely on! They've sucked year-long!
No pressure! They'll scratch a few runs out on the Cub's great
pitchers and win it in 5.
If the Mets win the Wild Card Game, I think the Cubs will beat
them. They saw a lot better pitching from the Mets last year.
Syndergaard will only pitch one game.
In the AL, the Orioles will lose to the Rangers, who have a much
more balanced offense, defense and pitching staff. The Rangers also
have several inspirational leaders in Odor, Beltre and Hamels.
If the Blue Jays get to that series, they will also lose to the
Rangers.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have carefully avoided playing the Wild
Card winner (both Baltimore and Toronto know them and their pitchers
only too well, and look forward to continuing the feast) and have
lost their way into a series with Cleveland, who has the home court
advantage. I look for the Sox to win, but it will be close. Kluber
and Trevor Bauer are going to try to carry the Indians staff. But
they have Andrew Miller in the pen, and he can pitch a couple of 2
inning saves for them.
I'll take the Sox in a squeeker.
So I see the Sox and the Rangers in the 7 game playoff finale. Sox in
7. Too much Ortiz. Too much Pedroia. Too much Mookie Betts.
The Big If with the Sox is how Price will pitch. This year exposed
him. He used to throw 96 and pound the zone (as all the hip
sportscasters like to say) Now he throws 92 and avoids the strike
zone. He throws more breaking stuff and just tries to tickle the
edges of the zone with his vulnerable fast ball. When he tries to
throw it by somebody, they murder it. He gave up 30 homers this year.
If Price can't be their number two after Rick Porcello, the Sox are
going to have to get somebody to step up...either Eduardo Rodriguez
or the ghost of Clay Bucholtz. Losing the knuckler of Wright was a
big setback.
After the Gigantes disappoint the Cub fans, they will lose to the
winner of the Washington/Los Angeles series which will be won
by...the Dodgers. (If the Cubs get out of the first series, I give
them a better chance of beating the Dodgers than they have to beat
the Giants. They were 4-3 vs. both teams. I'll still take the Dodgers
though.)
Washington lost too many good players to injury. They have
Scherzer ready to pitch twice though, and they might win both of
those games. But I don't think they will. Scherzer might strike out
twenty guys, but somebody will touch him for a homer...that's been
his story all year. (31 dingers allowed)
The Dodgers are loosey goosey...I think they are ready to compete
and I think Kershaw will pitch great. Maeda and Hill should give them
the ups over the rest of the National's staff. And I'll take the
Dodger closer Kenly Jansen over the Nats' Melancon. LA is also 5-1
against the Nats this year.
After they dispose of the Nats, the Dodgeheads will beat the
Giants in 6. The Dodgers are tired of losing to the San Francisco
Giants. Bumgarner may win two, but the Dodgers...with the home field
advantage...will prevail. And don't discount the Vin Scully factor.
This is Hollywood, after all.
As far as my World Series predictions: Boston Red Sox vs. Los
Angeles Dodgers.
I'm going to save that one for my next blog....
As Fats Waller once said...”One never know, do one?”
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