Marco's Baseball Blog-o-roonie 2016: PREDICTION DEVASTATION OF THE DEPLORABLES!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: PREDICTION DEVASTATION OF THE DEPLORABLES

Okay, so I blew it. But 2 for 6 still bats .333, right? (Before the two League Championships series. But I would have picked the Blue Jays over the Indians if I knew they were playing and I'd have picked the Cubs over the Dodgers...so I might actually be 2 for 8 when all is said and done...Oh never mind...I failed, I admit it.) But it's not my fault...the election was rigged and now you, my followers, must start the revolution and avenge me on the lying sluts who conspire against me!....no, wait a minute, I'm supposed to be contrite here.

Let's examine this mess.

I started out great with San Francisco and Bum-God-ner ascending Olympus once again and throttling the Mets in a predicted pitcher's duel classic over Thor and his fastball lightning bolts. It was epic and Zeus beat the Asgardians after the pitiful Giants batters at least ran up the pitch count by hitting some foul balls off Noah.

Bum-God-ner don't give a shit about no pitch counts. A nine inning shut out. Wasn't that a great game? And the rookie replacement third baseman Gillaspie hit one out to win it for Bum.

Toronto vs. Baltimore....and I'm one for two. I picked Baltimore because they had Zach Britton and his unhittability in the bullpen, which is where he stayed when Mr. By-the-Book Showalter refused to put him in the game even in the extra innings!

Instead, Buck brings in his starter Ubaldo Jiminez who is as high strung as an overly inbred race horse and is famous for either throwing balls in the dirt and walking everybody or grooving fastballs. Tonight was groove night.

After the first batter took a belt-high ball to left Bucky should have recognized the signs....”hmmm, 90mph fastball absolutely put on a tee for first batter....maybe rethink this.” Nope. Leave him in, he was hot in September. (But he wasn't relieving in September!)

Now Josh Donaldson (whose hair dresser must be a gay Comanche judging from what's left of his scalp) hits the first pitch, which is a 90mph fastball dead over the middle of the plate...first and third. Now, surely, Buck will bring in the closer?

Nope. Leave Ubaldo in. The Law says don't bring in your closer when you don't have the lead...or in a tie game. He might get offended that he's not in a save situation. Don't bring him in even when he is the best pitcher in the AL this year with the lowest ERA, average against, everything. He never blew a save. He has the best sinker (98mph!) ever! No, don't bring that guy in! Not even when you bring the infield in when you absolutely have to have a double play or a strikeout to continue your season. I know, Ubaldo is facing right handed hitters. But right handed hitters don't hit a sinker any better than lefties with Britton. He is a strikeout/ground ball pitcher par excellence and overwhelming all year.

So Ubaldo throws his third straight 90mph fastball down the freaking middle of the plate and Encarnacion hits it two miles. ( I even called it to my wife who could care less) Bye-Bye playoffs for Baltimore.

Worst managing sequence I've ever seen.

Cleveland gave Boston a thumping. Actually the Red Sox were competitive in two of the games but couldn't get the clutch hit. Mr. Screw-what-the-Law says Francona brought in Andrew Miller in the middle of the game to dispose of the Red Sox for two and a half innings. He knew Farrell wouldn't pinch hit for his lefties that early in the game and they didn't and lost their opportunities to score.

Of course Tito didn't have much choice since all of his starters were hurt in the last month. But he was definitely on to something. Desperation breeds Innovation.

I thought the Sox might rally behind Papi when he put a great swing on Miller's slider in the third game but the ball hung up and was caught for a sac fly instead of getting down for a single. Game of inches, folks.

1 for 3 am I. Surprised I am, Yoda. Farewell Papi...see you in the broadcast booth with Pedro.

The Blue Jays, newly inspired after Encarnacion's walk off, stayed hot at the plate and jacked the Rangers all over the field. Too long a lay off for Texas? Probably. Seems to be a consistent theme in the playoffs that teams need a day or two max. After that they forget how to hit. Pitchers like the layoff cause they're used to it anyway. Hitters, not so much. All of us were waiting for a real street fight between these two teams in a grudge match. But the Rangers didn't show up. Especially disappointing were the performances of their two “aces” (intentionally not capitalized to shame them further) Hamels and Darvish. And they lost on a bad relay throw by Odor.

Life is unexpectedly ironic at times. Actually, all the time if you think about it.

Meanwhile I'm 1 for 4 in predictions.

So I had boldly predicted that San Francisco would beat Chicago. I theorized that the Cubs would be over-confident and also would spit the bit under pressure. I said Bumgarner and Cueto would be tough on them and they were. But the Giants needed to win one of those first two games in Chicago. Javier Baez broke up a gem by Cueto with that big homer and the Cubs won 'em both at Wrigley.

Bum-God-ner's turn. Best game of the playoffs. Arrieta comes up with two on and is about 5 seconds late swinging at Bum's fastball...twice. So Bum thinks, “might as well keep my pitch count down with this guy and finish him off.” The next fastball winds up in Never-Never Land...(“I'm flying! Look at me! Way up high! Like a bird...in the sky! I'm not even trying!”)

That was a purple-paisley-jock-shock for sure. Bum gave up another couple of hits before he got his mojo back. To his credit, he shut the Cubs down after that and kept the Gigantics in the game. Then Conor Gillaspie (who can't spell either one of his names apparently) hits a beautiful triple to deep center field off a 104mph Chapman fireball to tie the game. Then Panik wins it in extras with a homer. Shock, awe and the Giant's high water mark for the year. The Cubs should have been looking for their hearts that the Giants had just cut out and left on the field. But these Cubs showed me something...

Cause the next night the Giants got a great game out of Matt Moore and were three runs up in the ninth. Bochy thinks he's safe taking out his starter. Not with the bullpen you got, Bruce! 5 pitchers...walk, hit, hit, hit, hit...truly wretched performance from the Grade F bullpen. Hard to pitch with your hands around your neck, boys.

Cubbies showed some spunk there...they could have given up on that last at bat and dragged ass back to Wrigley. Instead they made history.

Yep. I'm 1 for 5.

The Dodgers and the Nats. Two teams remarkably similar. Both of them have a leftie-heavy lineup and so are vulnerable to left handed pitching. Both of them have young star left-handed hitters to lead them in Harper and Seager. Both of them have strong closers, but are otherwise deficient in the bullpen. Both of them have underachieved in the playoffs in recent years. Both of them feature a Cy Young starter who has coughed up furballs in the playoffs. Both of them have a new manager who is renowned as a “player's” manager. And both of them have suffered major injury problems the last few years.

I picked the Dodgers in a close series because the Dodger's top pitcher, Kershaw, is a leftie and I thought he'd do better against the Nat's lineup than Scherzer, who is a rightie, would do against the Dodger's leftie hitters. (Sounds more complicated than it really is but I wanted to show off how scientific I'm trying to be about these things.)

So Kershaw throws 101 pitches in 5 innings but still holds off the Nats 4-3 and I look like a genius. Scherzer gave up a first inning bomb to Corey Seager and I am a certified Gold-Plated Genius!!

Game 2 the Nats win on Murphy's homer. 5-2. The Dodgers had the lead when Corey Seager hit another first inning homer but had many chances later in the game and couldn't get the hit. The Nats lost their great catcher Ramos to a knee injury late in the year but their backup Lobaton hit a 3-run jack to help win this one.

The Nats treated the Dodgers like red-headed step children in Game 3, an 8-3 blowout. Every pitcher the Dodgers put out there got lit up. Big homers by Rendon and Werth. The Boys in Blue look done.

The game took well over four hours. The seventh inning alone took over an hour! Something must be done! Here's a shopping list for MLB....

1/CUT BACK THE BETWEEN INNING TIME THAT YOU FILL WITH MORE COMMERCIALS YOU GREEDY BASTARDS! These playoff games always feature so many pitching changes that you'll let the networks make up the difference there anyway. With four hour, even three and a half hour games you start to lose the kids and that's your future audience you stone-brains!

2/Want to intentionally walk somebody? Wave at the umpire. We will all surely miss the sizzling excitement of watching the pitcher try not to throw the ball over his catcher's head on four wide ones.

3/Limit everybody's trips to the mound...coaches, managers, catchers. Every trip counts...Only the starting pitcher in each inning can get two before he must be lifted. Every other pitcher comes out on the next visit from anybody. If there's a runner on second you can figure out a way to go to your alternate set of signs without going out to talk about it. Most catcher's trips are to kill time while the next reliever warms up anyway.

4/5 warmup pitches between innings...not 8. It was enough for Grover Cleveland Alexander.

5/Speed up Replays. Hey! New York umps on the game feed! We just saw the replay eight times and you still can't make the call?

6/ Get creative. It's no use trying to change the game and use less pitchers. That's how they manage these days. A new pitcher for every batter who switches from right to left or vice versa. And they'll whine about hurting their arms.
Enforcing a clock between pitches? Yes! Limiting batter's step outs to adjust their f###ing batting gloves? Yes! Umpires must limit step-outs...even on the big stars like Papi...that loveable bat slappin' time WASTER.

There. I just saved you bums twenty-thirty minutes a game.

So in Game 4 the Dodgers finally get to the Nats' bullpen and Chase Utley does something with runners on base besides strike out.

Game 5. All you will remember is the Kershaw relief job after he won the fourth game on short rest, giving up 5 earned. The Big Guy came through for LA. The Nats played honorably but find a way to lose another one.

So now it's the Championship Series of the Leagues. You probably didn't pick Cleveland to get this far and you probably didn't pick them over Toronto.

Toronto had the hitting mo after rattlesnaking the Rangers, but Cleveland didn't play fair. Instead of leaving their weak second string starters in so the Jays could pound them, Tito Francona just brought in a new no-name relief pitcher every other inning and made the Canadians look silly. Francona even started some kid from Texas named Ryan Merritt who was pitching his second major league game. This baby boy may be the new Bird Fydrich. He was squinting to see the catcher's signs and kind of smiling and then calmly,politely and kind of endearingly shutting out the big boys for 4 key innings. He's from my Mama's home town of McKinney,Texas and I love the kid!

This series was essentially a walkover. Toronto got shut out at home in their last game of the year! So now they lose Bautista and Encarnacion to free agency...and don't try to tell me they can resign them. As I've said before, NOBODY stays in Canada and pays higher taxes when they get to their walk year. The Jays still have a good core...they'll be back.

In the NLCS the Dodgers are the roadblock between the loveable Cubbies and baseball redemption. After 5 games of this series, it is apparent that the Cubs can hit anybody on the Dodger's staff not named Kershaw, Hill or Jansen.

So Roberts has saved those guys back and is going to try to win two games in Chicago with those three main arms. He better not put Blanton or Baez or Stripling out there anymore. Those guys helped get Addison Russell and Rizzo off the schneid.

The Cubbies feel better about themselves after two blowout wins at the Stadium...but they weren't facing Kershaw. I see the Dodgers squelching the Cubs in Game 6. Somebody will light up Hendricks with a long ball...I predict Utley or Gonzalez. Kershaw will only need a run or two.

If there's a seventh game at Wrigley, better check the dugouts for albino squirrels or other unlucky creatures that might crawl out on the field and die at home plate or something. There will be a moment when the Cubs will feel the Chill Wind of the Curse feathering up their necks. Then they will either succomb, as so many Cubs teams have before them, or some new baseball legend will arise. Arrieta vs. Hill...a game Dodger squad vs. the New Darlings of MLB.

I don't know who is going to win but I am definitely looking forward to it.

I guess I'll drink a cup of coffee and ask the wife if I can stay up that late....

Enjoy the weekend!

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Playoff Special

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PLAYOFF SPECIAL

You knew it had to come. I couldn't contain myself without bombarding your inbox with my usual line of bullshit about who will win what and why. Well, look at it this way. How gratifying will it be when all my fearless predictions are reduced to ash in the face of the hideous reality of actual baseball facts and you can at least go around the house saying, “I knew that idiot would get it wrong...why oh why did I just go out and bet a thousand dollars on the Cleveland Indians?”

No...I'm not really picking the Indians to go all the way...but they are much more dangerous than they are getting credit for being. You just haven't seen them because nobody shows them on television...(something about ratings being higher for the Boston-New York series?)

Let's talk about the playoffs in just a minute. Right now I want to discuss a weird play that happened a week or so ago.

The Nats are playing Pittsburgh and Bryce Harper of the Nats hits a laser into the right field corner and is stretching it into a triple. Well, I guess Kang, the third baseman of the Pirates, thought Harper might try to go home as the very bad throw came in from the outfield...missing two cut-off men and going up the line into left field. So Kang fakes a tag, getting Harper to stumble into an awkward slide and hurt his thumb. The third base coach was telling him to stand up, but Harper bit on the fake tag and slid.

Baseball tradition says this is a no-no. By faking the tag, Kang endangered Harper. Here, paste this and watch it for yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lsShANCD-k

You also noticed the very expected result of this play...the Pirates pitcher A.J.Cole threw one behind Kang's head next time he came up. (Everybody knew it was coming, and if Cole had just hit him in the butt, nobody would have done anything. By throwing high behind Kang's head, he caused a riot. I have said it before...UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD A PITCHER GET AWAY WITH THROWING AT A BATTER'S HEAD. Just too dangerous. They've got to suspend him. Really. You can't kill a guy for a fake tag. Hit him in the butt and move on. I doubt the Pirates would even have complained. Anyway, that's beside my point.)

My point is that there is a double standard here. Let me take you back to the 1991 World Series. Remember that brilliant game where the Twins, behind Jack Morris at his bulldoggiest, beat the Braves 1-0 in 10 innings in that seventh game? Of course you do. Well, the big play that probably cost the Bravos the series was in the eighth.

Lonnie Smith (known as “Skates” for his misadventures on the basepaths) of the Braves was on first. Terry Pendleton hits a towering double into left center off the wall. As Lonnie charges to second, he loses track of the hit somehow and Chuck Knoblaugh ...second basesman of the Twins....fakes fielding a grounder and fakes a toss to second to Gagne the shortstop, who has collaborated in the ruse by covering second and totally deking Smith. Lonnie almost slides, stumbles and can only make it to third by the time he figures it out. That cost the Braves the run they needed and probably the series.

Of course everybody applauds the Twins' infielders for the excellent deke and mocks Lonnie Smith. Here...paste it and watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM5kHJUBRSE

I agree...bad on Smith and good on the Twins. But isn't this the same kind of dangerous deke as the Kang/Harper play...only at a different base? Both infielders were trying to keep a run from scoring, even though their actions could have (and did in Kang's case) caused an awkward slide that caused an injury. But because it was at third, everybody says “you can't do that” with Kang and because it was at second, “smart play” to Knoblaugh and Gagne.

Baseball recently changed the rules about breaking up a double play at second with a hard slide. You hardly ever saw an infielder even complain about having to jump out of the way of high spikes coming into second because it was considered good baseball for the runner to do anything to break up the double play. Now you come in hard and you get Roughned Odor punching your lights out.

Likewise, everybody accepted a runner practically killing a catcher (who unashamedly blocked the plate without the ball) until Buster Posey got murdered one day and baseball lost one of its brightest stars for a year. So they changed the rule.

My point is, baseball has different traditions about what is allowed depending on the base involved. The interference rule is called differently and always has been. Come in spikes high at second, the infielder used to nod and say “good hard play”. Do it at third and you had a fistfight. Run into the catcher at home...gutsy ball! Step on the first baseman as you run down the line...fistfight.

The rule says the runner is not allowed to interfere with the defensive player's attempt to make the play. But it's a rule that has never been equitably enforced. The changes in the enforcement at second and home have helped the game by keeping our players injury free.

Maybe they'll eventually clarify what should be and shouldn't be allowed as to deking the runner.

Now, My Hearties, what's gonna happen in the playoffs?

Well, I haven't the slightest idea who is going to win these wild card games.

Ha! Some pundit I turned out to be. But really, how can you handicap a one game playoff like that? Any team in baseball could win that game. The only modifier is the starting pitchers and how hot they are coming in.

Every once in awhile, a real pitching Titan emerges that you just can't see anybody beating. And yet they all get beat once in awhile. Koufax seemed to be unbeatable til the Orioles walloped him in '66. Gibson seemed unhittable til the Tigers got to him (with a lot of help from an outfield error by Curt Flood) in '68. In the current era Kershaw pitches out of his mind til the playoffs. Arrieta looked unstoppable til this season. And Bumgarner...well more on him later.

If one of those guys is taking the mound, you bet on them. But they will lose their share. That's baseball.

In the AL wild card matchup tonight, no titans will be starting. Stroman for the Blue Jays and Tillman for the Orioles are both good pitchers who have been wildly erratic this season. I don't see either of them getting to the seventh inning. So it comes down to which team's big boppers will make the most noise before the bullpens come into play.

If the Blue Jays get to Tillman and Donaldson or Encarnacion get hold of one with men on....they can beat the Orioles before that great bullpen gets going. If they are behind in the eighth, forget it. Showalter will bring in Zach Britton and that's all she wrote. Nobody hits that 98 mph SINKER he throws. Most unhittable pitch since Mike Scott of the Astros had that hard split finger going in the '80s. (Scott was actually doctoring the ball, but he hid it well. Britton is probably doing something to the ball too but they can't catch him. A 98mph pitch shouldn't move that sharply downward.)

The Orioles are one-dimensional. They hit the long ball. That's it. They don't steal and they only had, I think, 5 triples all year. Lowest total ever. And Manny Machado has been in a terrible slump. But they can hit Stroman so they can win it with the bullpen.

I'd like to see the Blue Jays win and get to have a 5 game death-match with the Rangers in a reprise of last year's debacle. But I pick the Orioles.

The NL Wild Card is even harder to predict. The Mets have been living on fumes, pitching-wise. But they have Syndergaard ready for this one big game. And he's awesome. Also, they are playing at home and their hitters have been taking turns being the hero every game. Advantage Mets, right?

One little bitty roadblock, New York, and his name is Bumgarner. Look up the definition of “gamer” in the baseball dictionary and you'll see a picture of the big North Carolinian leftie. This guy is so fierce and so focused and just so damn COMMITTED to beating you. What a player.

The Giants may not score on Syndergaard. And the Metskies have Familia coming out of the pen instead of Romo. I predict a 1-0 or 2-1 game, but I am never going to bet against Bumgarner. I just don't care. He might hit a homer and win his own game. And remember...it's an even numbered year. Advantage Giants!

If the Giants win the Wild Card game, I pick them to beat the Cubs as I outlined in my last blog. It's a 5 game series and the Giants will have both Cueto and Bumgarner pitching on good rest, with Samardzja, Matt Moore and this new phenom Blach all available to help the diseased bullpen. I think the Cubs hitters will fold under pressure. They rely too heavily on Bryant and Rizzo.

The Giants have no hitters to rely on! They've sucked year-long! No pressure! They'll scratch a few runs out on the Cub's great pitchers and win it in 5.

If the Mets win the Wild Card Game, I think the Cubs will beat them. They saw a lot better pitching from the Mets last year. Syndergaard will only pitch one game.

In the AL, the Orioles will lose to the Rangers, who have a much more balanced offense, defense and pitching staff. The Rangers also have several inspirational leaders in Odor, Beltre and Hamels.

If the Blue Jays get to that series, they will also lose to the Rangers.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have carefully avoided playing the Wild Card winner (both Baltimore and Toronto know them and their pitchers only too well, and look forward to continuing the feast) and have lost their way into a series with Cleveland, who has the home court advantage. I look for the Sox to win, but it will be close. Kluber and Trevor Bauer are going to try to carry the Indians staff. But they have Andrew Miller in the pen, and he can pitch a couple of 2 inning saves for them.

I'll take the Sox in a squeeker.

So I see the Sox and the Rangers in the 7 game playoff finale. Sox in 7. Too much Ortiz. Too much Pedroia. Too much Mookie Betts.

The Big If with the Sox is how Price will pitch. This year exposed him. He used to throw 96 and pound the zone (as all the hip sportscasters like to say) Now he throws 92 and avoids the strike zone. He throws more breaking stuff and just tries to tickle the edges of the zone with his vulnerable fast ball. When he tries to throw it by somebody, they murder it. He gave up 30 homers this year. If Price can't be their number two after Rick Porcello, the Sox are going to have to get somebody to step up...either Eduardo Rodriguez or the ghost of Clay Bucholtz. Losing the knuckler of Wright was a big setback.

After the Gigantes disappoint the Cub fans, they will lose to the winner of the Washington/Los Angeles series which will be won by...the Dodgers. (If the Cubs get out of the first series, I give them a better chance of beating the Dodgers than they have to beat the Giants. They were 4-3 vs. both teams. I'll still take the Dodgers though.)

Washington lost too many good players to injury. They have Scherzer ready to pitch twice though, and they might win both of those games. But I don't think they will. Scherzer might strike out twenty guys, but somebody will touch him for a homer...that's been his story all year. (31 dingers allowed)

The Dodgers are loosey goosey...I think they are ready to compete and I think Kershaw will pitch great. Maeda and Hill should give them the ups over the rest of the National's staff. And I'll take the Dodger closer Kenly Jansen over the Nats' Melancon. LA is also 5-1 against the Nats this year.

After they dispose of the Nats, the Dodgeheads will beat the Giants in 6. The Dodgers are tired of losing to the San Francisco Giants. Bumgarner may win two, but the Dodgers...with the home field advantage...will prevail. And don't discount the Vin Scully factor. This is Hollywood, after all.

As far as my World Series predictions: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.

I'm going to save that one for my next blog....

As Fats Waller once said...”One never know, do one?”