MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: GREAT HITTERS AND THE BIG TRADE

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 GREAT HITTERS AND THE BIG TRADE

Great hitters can be divided into several categories. Sometimes a hitter is a member of more than one category. More on that later. Right now, let's talk about the basic varieties:

1/SCIENTISTS: Their bats are magic wands. They hardly ever strike out and they walk a lot because of their great batting eyes. They go the opposite way a lot for singles and they'd rather bat .330 than hit 30 homers.

EXAMPLES: Rod Carew, Pete Rose, Wade Boggs, Ichiro Suzuki (yes I know he doesn't walk as much but he fits this category otherwise), Tony Gwynn.

Of course the ultimate Scientist hitter is Ted Williams. But Ted and other scientific hitters like Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial and George Brett transcend the category because of their power. (See below)

2/GODZILLAS: These guys go for the long ball first and don't care if they hit .240 as long as they crush 40 balls a year over the fences. They strike out a lot. Unlike the Scientists, they can be pitched to....very carefully.

EXAMPLES: Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Ralph Kiner, Frank Howard and the modern versions like Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Todd Frazier, Giancarlo Stanton and Nelson Cruz. (no bold highlighting for convicted PED users!)They make outs but everybody watches when they come up to the plate because they just might bust one and break up the old ballgame.

3/GODS: This category is reserved for the true Alpha Superstars of baseball lore. In addition to Ted Williams and his buddies mentioned above, they are multi-dimensional players who beat you in many ways. These are the guys who you absolutely don't want to face in a close game. Here are a few more...

EXAMPLES:

Willie Mays: he hit for a good average with lots of power and he could beat you on the bases as well. Then he'd go out and his defense would beat you.

Hank Aaron: Back in the sixties the Dodgers' great pitching staff would meet and go over the opposing team's lineup of hitters before each series and compare notes on how to pitch each hitter. When they'd play the Braves and get to Aaron there would be silence...nobody had a way to consistently get him out and nobody could ever get a

fastball by him. Ted Williams said Aaron was the most impressive fastball hitter he ever saw.

Mickey Mantle: People forget. If this guy hadn't been injured so much...if he'd taken a little bit better care of himself...if he hadn't had to play in one of the worst hitter's eras of all time...if Casey Stengel had let him steal bases...This guy might be considered the greatest all-round ball player of all time.

He was one of the fastest players in the history of baseball. He could have stolen 40-60 bases a year if they'd let him. He was also the most powerful home run hitter of his era...he's still up there with Giancarlo, McGwire and a very few others when it comes to tape measure shots. And the Mick put up batting averages like .365 and .353. He slugged over .600 six times, his on base percentage was

.421 lifetime and he finished in the top five MVP voting 9(!) times.

Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Jimmy Foxx: the best of the old timers who established home runs as the new offensive paradigm of baseball back in the twenties and thirties. Not many hitters have ever been able to hit 35-50+ homers every year and maintain an average of .350 or above at the same time. These guys did it year after year.

CURRENT PLAYERS WHO MAY EVENTUALLY BE CONSIDERED IN THIS CATEGORY:

Joey Votto: already a scientist, he batted well over .400 the second half last year with power and lots of walks.

Paul Goldschmidt: has power, good average most years, high on base percentage and base stealing ability.

David Ortiz: probably already has made it to God-ness. His average suffered when they started using the shift on him so much. He could have hit .400 if he'd gone for singles to the left side and sacrificed his power. The opposition would have probably taken that if they could have avoided the thunder.

Albert Pujols: his recent injuries have dimmed the glow of his spectacular years in the National League when he hit.330/35+ homers/125 rbis every year.

Mike Trout: looks like an all-timer if his average gets a little higher and he strikes out a little less.

Barry Bonds: Yes he was a God. But then, so was Shiva the destroyer.

I've got one more category of great hitters for you and in a way it's the most interesting of all...

4/SAVANTS: There are a few players who are truly great hitters that just seem to have been born that way. Oh sure, somewhere along the line a Dad or an Uncle or a Coach probably gave them some hitting pointers, but they had a basic ability to do the hardest thing in sport...consistently hit the ball with power and maintain a high average and on base percentage at the same time. They aren't really scientists and they share some interesting qualities.

For instance, they seem to be mostly affable, happy-go-lucky types who are sometimes pretty flaky or even goofy. They are popular with their teammates and the press. They can be surprisingly bad defensively and most of them aren't particularly good at other aspects of the game, but Oh Lord can they hit. And most of them could hit when they were very young.

EXAMPLES:

Miguel Cabrera: I'm very glad he won that triple crown so people will remember him. That is very, very hard to do in this day and age. He's hit over 40 doubles 5 times (including a year of 50 and a year of 52) and over 30 homers 10 times. He's batted in over 100 runs 12 times...every year when he hasn't been injured. His lifetime batting average/on base/slugging? .321/.399/.562 with four titles in both average and on base and 2 in slugging (.606,.636) He strikes out a hundred times a season so he's not a scientist. He's just one of the most natural hitters ever.

Manny Ramirez: He didn't track pitchers except with his baseball memory. He'd just amble up to the plate and wait for a pitch in the zone and then just launch it...right, center or left he didn't care. He'd just uncoil with that beautiful swing that terrorized pitchers. It seemed like you should have been able to fool him more but you really couldn't. He had awesome offensive stats. Who knows how much the drugs helped him? Can't forgive him or Bonds or the others, but Jeez it was something to watch them swing the bat.

Pedro Guerrero: Remember Pedro from the Dodgers of the '80s? Lifetime OPS .850. He finished in the top 5 MVP voting 4 times. He was a disaster in the field and a bozo on the bases (even though he could run fast enough to steal 20 bases a couple of times). But when he'd come up to the plate he was just one scary right handed Dominican power hitter, even playing in a lousy hitter's park like Chavez Ravine. Injuries cut his career short. He should have done some Dh-ing in the American League. He was very popular in the press because he would say what he felt and never shirk a question. Most of the other Dodgers of that era were very reluctant to open up so the reporters always wound up around Pedro's locker because they knew they'd get some good quotes from him. Kind of like a baseball Charles Barkley.

Vlad Guerrero: Another Dominican Guerrero right-handed power hitter. Lifetime OPS .931! Batted over .300 in 13 out of 15 full seasons and hit over 30 homers 8 times. 4 years with more than 200 hits. 10 years of more than 100 ribbies.

Unlike some of these other Savants, he wasn't one-dimensional. He had years of 37 and 40 steals and had one of the two or three most powerful right field arms in baseball in his day. Vlad (they called him “The Impaler”) learned to hit by swatting bottle caps with a broomstick growing up poor in a family of nine kids in Dominica. He was famous for swinging at balls out of the strike zone but still being able to hit them with authority. He once got a hit off a pitch that bounced in front of the plate. Always well-liked as a player, he had 8 kids by 5 different women.

OLD TIMER SAVANTS:

Yogi Berra: He wasn't a league leader in average or homers but he got a lot of rbis hitting behind guys like DiMaggio, Mantle and Maris. He didn't walk a lot but almost never struck out. (Only 3 seasons out of 19 with more than 30!)One of the most famous bad-ball hitters of all time.

He would swing at anything. One time Casey Stengel dressed him down for it and told him to “Think when you're up at the plate!” So Yogi went up to bat and took three straight strikes and came back to the dugout and told Casey “I can't think and hit at the same time!”

Babe Herman: You've probably read about this Brooklyn Dodger from the '30s getting hit on the head by a fly ball and once tripling into a triple play. (Base runners were staying put but Babe kept running until three guys were on the same base.) He was considered one of the biggest clowns in the game and was laughed at during his career, but he was a 6'4” leftie hitter who had seasons with batting averages of .381 and .393 to his credit. (Admittedly in the ridiculous seasons of 1930 and 1931 when the National League was playing with the ultimate rabbit ball and the League as a whole batted over .300)

Joe Jackson: One of the Black Sox of 1919 but also one of the best hitters ever. Lifetime average .356. Consecutive years of these averages....387/.408/.395/.373. A leftie, Babe Ruth said he copied Jackson's swing and that's how he was able to hit so many homers. Jackson was kicked out of the game just when the lively ball came into vogue in 1920 or he would have hit lots more homers. As it was he hit over 20 triples 3 times.

Jackson was a simple country boy who was probably illiterate. Ty Cobb, who had befriended his fellow Southerner when Jackson first came up, did a head trip on Joe one year when they were neck and neck for the batting title. Cobb pretended to be mad at Joe for some reason and stopped talking to him. It bothered Joe so much that he slumped and lost the title. (Sounds about right for Cobb.)

More Mickey Mantle: Mick was a Baseball God who was also a Savant. He was a real country bumpkin when he came up and even though being a switch hitter implied some kind of sophisticated approach to hitting, Mantle admitted that he went up to the plate trying to hit a homer every time. (He exaggerated because I watched him lay down a perfect drag bunt once. He'd use bunts to break himself out of slumps.)

One year at the All Star Game, Ted Williams praised him for the great season Mantle was having and went into a long technical discussion of how Mantle was hitting so well. “Are you keeping your hands back longer? Are your hips coming through just before the swing? Are you seeing that breaking pitch and adjusting?”...stuff like that fascinated Scientist Ted.

Well Mantle says “Gee, I don't know Ted.” Mick starts thinking about it and winds up going into a huge slump for the rest of the season trying to figure out what technique he was using.

I could go on and on about Mickey Mantle but I won't.

Instead, I'll talk about the Big Trade at the winter meetings.

The Big Trade: Of course it's the Red Sox/White Sox trade...The White Hose send leftie Ace Chris Sale to Fenway for the top prospect in baseball (according to popular opinion) Cuban Yoan Moncada and pitching prospect Michael Kopech. (He of the 102 mph fastball) The Scarlet Stockings threw in two more prospects just to sweeten the pot.

So what about this trade? Yes the Red Sox needed another pitcher and I guess they got the best one available. They have a surfeit of lefties in their rotation with Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez and now Sale. Somebody has to go. Still, the Red Sox want to win now and getting an Ace like Sale can only help that for the next two years or so. But what about the future? Just how good are Moncada and Kopech?

Well Kopech can bring it, no doubt. But he's been in A ball

and his control is not top notch and the Red Sox have been disappointed in their other great pitching prospects (like leftie Henry Owens who just hasn't been able to develop the control that a major league starter needs. I'm sure they would have rather traded Owens to the White Sox but no dice.)

On the whole, the Red Sox have drafted well when it comes to position players and have screwed the pooch with their young pitchers (since Lester and Buchholz in 2007). I don't think they wanted to wait around for another three years while Kopech learned control. Remember Daniel Bard? He threw fast too....he's now struggling in the St. Louis Cardinals' system.

Moncada is another story. The guy just looks like a future superstar. However, he's Cuban and hasn't played enough what with all the defecting and all. The Red Sox just blew $70 million to get the rights to Rusney Castillo...another Cuban who everybody said couldn't miss. Speed, power, defense blah blah blah. Turns out the guy has no bat speed and is average in minor league ball at best.

Well they spent $60 mil on Moncada and he's supposed to be better but how can you be sure? It's hard for these Cubans to adjust to the USA. In 19 major league at bats Moncada has struck out 12 times. He probably needs a couple more years in the high minors to figure it out. He has terrific speed and could be a great stolen base threat right now...if he could get on base. Also, the Red Sox ...if they could play him at all...were going to have to play him out of position at third instead of his natural second base. (Pedroia is too good and too important for their infield chemistry to move him.)

The question becomes...try to win with Sale right now? Or wait for the youngsters a little longer and give yourself a chance to win big two or three years from now? (When vets like Hanley Ramirez, Pedroia, Price and Pablo Sandoval will probably be on the downside of their careers)

Here's how I evaluate Moncada (who I love, really.)

WHO WILL YOAN MONCADA BE IN 3 YEARS?

1/ 5% chance he's a combo of Robbie Cano and Tim Raines (power, defense, speed and moxie...hopefully with a better hustle ethic than Cano)

2/10% chance he's Robbie Cano with more speed (who'd complain?)

3/15% chance he's Tim Raines (stolen base leader but without the great power of Cano...but still a HOF candidate)

4/40% chance he's Carl Crawford (.290/.330 on base/ .430 slug... less than twenty homers a year, less than 100 ribbies a year but a stolen base league leader...but will only be at this peak until his speed goes after about 6 years.)

5/30% chance he's Rusney Castillo (White Sox win the ultimate Xmas present...a box of dirt!)

So you've got a 30% chance Moncada is some kind of Hall of Famer and 30% he's a bust...and a 40% chance he's a much better than average player for a few years. Meanwhile Chris Sale is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball for sure. I say the Red Sox made the right choice...but so did the White Sox. The White Sox had to break up that team and start over.

The fly in the ointment for the Red Sox is that you can't trust pitchers and their delicate arms. Sale has been pretty injury free except for a small problem early last season. But he throws funky across his body and he's skinny and he's a leftie and a hot-head. Those kinds of pitchers rarely last that long. His fastball has lost 2 or 3 mph in the last couple of years. Most Aces only have a window of 5-8 years where they truly dominate. Sale has had 5 top years. Price is already over that hump and so is Verlander...but they're still great, valuable pitchers. So is Sale. Even if he's not as dominant as he has been for the last few years, he's better than anybody else the Red Sox could have added to their starting staff short of Bumgarner or Kershaw or maybe Scherzer. And I think he's got two truly dominant years in that arm...and the Red Sox have a better chance of winning a World Series or two with him than with Moncada and Kopech.

Sale still has 3 years on a very affordable contract but you have to add in the $60 million investment in Moncada which it turns out they spent for trade bait.

If the Red Sox want to really up their chances of winning another Championship they'd grab Edwin Encarnacion for 3 years. The loss of Ortiz is huge. The middle of their lineup is just not the same and Encarnacion is the only other player out there with that knack of hitting the prime time dramatic homer. Plus, Edwin always kills the Red Sox and what if the Yankees get him?

I understand that a 5 year deal would be too much risk with a player in his mid-thirties and Boston still has to rebuild the bullpen after losing Uehara, Tazawa and Zeigler. But how much money will another title be worth to marketing in New England?

Go for the jugular, Dombrowski. And Merry Xmas Baseball Fans Everywhere!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 WRAP-UP

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 WRAP-UP

I know you've read enough about that great 2016 World Series so I'll put in my two cents and get it over with:

1/The Cubs are not the greatest team that ever lived. They beat a very game Cleveland squad that had just lost two fifths of their starting staff. The got shut out twice by those same Clevelanders and were lucky to pull out the seventh game.

2/Yes, it's a big deal that the Cubs finally won it all. And about time. No, it's not “the greatest story in sports history” as some sportswriter on nitrous oxide maintained.

3/Game 7 was not the greatest game 7 ever played. But it's definitely in the conversation:

The Cubs showed guts and the resolute heart of a champion coming up off the mat after that Raje Davis home run dagger they got.

The Indians made that game a classic because of the guts and heart they showed coming back from a 5-0 deficit to eventually tie it up.

It was the unexpected nature of that Raje Davis homer that made the game a memorable classic. It was off superman, Aroldis Chapman, who was asked to pitch tired and gave it his best shot. Kudos to him for giving it up for the team. He came back and got them out in the ninth without his best stuff. And kudos to the Indians pitchers Kluber and everybody else who had to pitch on short rest to give their team a chance.

The two best game 7s of all time? I vote for:

#2/ Twins over Braves 1991...the all time pitcher's duel classic had incredible drama all the way as two Hall of Famers (or should be, Jack Morris!)competed their butts off. Smoltz went out on his shield after a noble performance. Jack Morris...refused to lose!

#1/ Pirates over Yankees 1960...the Yankees scored 55 runs to the Pirates 27 in the series and won their three games by scores of 16-3,10-0 and 12-0. The Pirates won 2 one-run games and had a team ERA of over 7. So it seemed like the Pirates were getting killed.

Game 7 at Pittsburgh: The Pirates led 4-0 after two. The Yanks went up 5-4 after Berra's homer in the sixth. They increased the lead to 7-4 in the eighth, but in the bottom of the eighth things got strange.

With one on Bill Virdon hit a double play grounder to Tony Kubek at short. The ball took a very bad hop and came up and hit Kubek in the Adam's apple. That ball almost killed him. He couldn't talk for a week afterwards and had to come out of the game. Another single and a sacrifice produced one run. Then Clemente hit a chopper to first and beat it out, scoring another run to leave the Pirates only a run behind. Then came the Raje Davis moment when unheralded pinch hitting back up catcher Hal Smith hit a 3-run homer over the very deep left field wall at Forbes Field. The fans went nuts and now the Buccos led 9-7.

But the mighty Yankees had the right stuff. In the top of the ninth Mantle and Berra each drove in a big run to tie the score.

You know what happened in the bottom of the ninth. Bill Mazeroski hit a Series-winning walk off...the only homer ever to end a seventh game.

So there you have a Game 7 with 5 lead changes (or ties) ending with the ultimate moment. It featured 5 Hall of Famers (Maz, Clemente, Mantle, Berra and Whitey Ford who didn't pitch in the game). It didn't have a dramatic rain delay but it had a little noted weirdness: nobody on either team struck out.

I watched this game in a bar outside Pittsburgh that my Dad talked my way into so I could see the last few innings. I was eleven and I'll never forget it.

The greatest World Series game of all time was the sixth game of the 1975 series between the Reds and the Red Sox.

If it had been Game 7 there would be no contest, because this was also the greatest game ever played period. At least in the modern era. Why?

Because the two teams played so well. The game had great play after great play...hitting and fielding...much cleaner than these other games mentioned above. It had the dramatic pinch hit 3 run homer by Carbo and it had that epic walk off ending in extra innings. It had Rose coming to bat late and saying to the Red Sox catcher Carlton Fisk...”this is the greatest game I've ever played in! Isn't this a great game?” I always loved that.

This year's awards:

I thought the Managers of the Year Francona and Roberts were the best choices. They both had their teams playing over their heads. Especially Francona.

Rookies of the Year: Corey Seager....Yep. Michael Fulmer the Tiger pitcher...I guess so but not much competition this year.

Cy Young: I would have given it to Zach Britton...if a closer should ever be considered for the Cy Young, and plenty have...he should have been. In the NL I had Scherzer too.

MVPs: NL Bryant...well I guess so....He's one of the Adorables, after all. Nolan Arenado (41 dingers, 139 rbi's)deserved some support. I had it for Daniel Murphy.

AL Trout definitely had a case but Altuve was a one-man team for Houston and was a leader in batting average AND steals AND had 99 RBIs as a second baseman. I claim Ortiz was number two, even as a DH, because of his OPS (1.021 led baseball) and his leadership.

That's all I got for now...next up is an article about hitting savants I call MANCHILD IN THE PROMISED LAND...that's coming up in a week or so. Forgive the Teaser.

Best to you all and Happy Thanksgiving.

Marco

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: ACES UP FOR GAME 7

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: ACES UP FOR GAME 7

THINGS YOU DIDN'T KNOW DEPARTMENT:

The highest card in the playing deck is the “ace.” The fighter pilot who shot down at least five enemy planes was the “ace.” The number one pitcher on a team is known as the “ace”.

All of these definitions lead back to Asa Brainerd...pitcher for the Cincinnati Red Stockings from 1868-1870. Asa became famous because he won at least 65 straight games for the Stockings....the best team in baseball in those early days of the professional sport. In the 1870's other teams started referring to their best pitcher as “our Asa” and to rival hurlers as “their Asa”. This became shortened to “ace” and the term has been used ever since to denote that special starter on a baseball team.

Tonight is Game 7 of the World Series. Yeah, I know. Kind of sends shivers up your spine. No matter who you root for, it's always fun when it comes down to that ultimate game. The infamous “no tomorrow” game.

I predicted that the Cubs would come back from that 3 games to 1 hole they dug for themselves by not being able to hit the breaking balls that the Indians pitchers were so carefully placing out of the strike zone. Trouble is, the Indians couldn't pitch Kluber, Miller or Cody Allen every inning. The Cubs got to look at Bauer and Tomlin for the second time in three days and they learned. Boom Boom Boom.

Lesser lights of the Indian's bullpen....Boom Boom Boom.

So now you gotta give the Cubs the momentum going into this last game. They also have the league ERA leader going in Stork Hendricks. He's a cool customer and an Ace. He better be good because Joe Maddon pitched Chapman 3 innings on Sunday and another inning and a third on Tuesday night. He's thrown well over 60 pitches in three days and that's double his usual work load. He's a big strong cat but he gets wild when he's tired. So Hendricks better go seven because Maddon doesn't have any faith in the rest of his bullpen. They might as well not be on the roster. Rondon? The invisible man.

The Cubs had a 5 run lead on the way to a 9-3 victory last night. Since when do you bring your closer into a game that you have a 5 run lead in? In the 7^th inning? That means Maddon has no faith at all in his other pitchers. Did he lean too hard on Chapman going into the last contest? We'll see.

He might get cute and bring in Lester to pitch to some people but I hope there's nobody on base because Lester can't hold runners. Hell, he can't even throw to first base! HE'S GOT YOUR BASIC PSYCHOLOGICAL BLOCK. Like Steve Sax who couldn't throw to first on a routine ground ball. Or Dale Murphy, a two time MVP who had to move from catcher to the outfield because he couldn't throw the ball back to the pitcher without double clutching over and over.

But the Cubs hitters are finally feeling good about themselves. They fattened up their averages on the weak sisters of the Indians rotation. Schwarber is Dhing in the second spot in the lineup and he makes that lineup much scarier. Also, they've finally been hitting breaking balls.

But now Francona has Kluber on 3 days rest....not bad for a stud Ace like him. He also has a completely well rested Wade Miller ready to go 3 or more innings and closer Cody Allen rested as well. The 6^th game blow out allowed him to hold them back.

I think the Cubs just got out-managed in the pitching department.

Kluber may not be sharp enough to fool them again with those breaking pitches. Or he may go Bumgarner on their ass. We'll see.

Kipnis has kind of been taking the lead in the Indians hitting lately while Lindor has faded. I think Rajai Davis will be back in center after the debacle that was Tyler Naquin last night, don't you? A play that ugly could have permanent psychic ramifications to the team. (I'm talking about the first inning pop-up by Addison Russell that fell untouched by human hands in right center. Cost 2 runs and the ballgame, essentially. Naquin can pinch run.

I am definitely jacked up for this game. It might be a classic...you just never know in baseball. One of these teams will at last be destiny's darling. The other one will lapse back into their multiple decade-long funk. The Baseball Gods must decide. The Cubs should go sacrifice a goat or something.

I say it's the Indians 5-4.

Over and out ball fans!

Marco's Baseball Blog-o-roonie 2016: PREDICTION DEVASTATION OF THE DEPLORABLES!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: PREDICTION DEVASTATION OF THE DEPLORABLES

Okay, so I blew it. But 2 for 6 still bats .333, right? (Before the two League Championships series. But I would have picked the Blue Jays over the Indians if I knew they were playing and I'd have picked the Cubs over the Dodgers...so I might actually be 2 for 8 when all is said and done...Oh never mind...I failed, I admit it.) But it's not my fault...the election was rigged and now you, my followers, must start the revolution and avenge me on the lying sluts who conspire against me!....no, wait a minute, I'm supposed to be contrite here.

Let's examine this mess.

I started out great with San Francisco and Bum-God-ner ascending Olympus once again and throttling the Mets in a predicted pitcher's duel classic over Thor and his fastball lightning bolts. It was epic and Zeus beat the Asgardians after the pitiful Giants batters at least ran up the pitch count by hitting some foul balls off Noah.

Bum-God-ner don't give a shit about no pitch counts. A nine inning shut out. Wasn't that a great game? And the rookie replacement third baseman Gillaspie hit one out to win it for Bum.

Toronto vs. Baltimore....and I'm one for two. I picked Baltimore because they had Zach Britton and his unhittability in the bullpen, which is where he stayed when Mr. By-the-Book Showalter refused to put him in the game even in the extra innings!

Instead, Buck brings in his starter Ubaldo Jiminez who is as high strung as an overly inbred race horse and is famous for either throwing balls in the dirt and walking everybody or grooving fastballs. Tonight was groove night.

After the first batter took a belt-high ball to left Bucky should have recognized the signs....”hmmm, 90mph fastball absolutely put on a tee for first batter....maybe rethink this.” Nope. Leave him in, he was hot in September. (But he wasn't relieving in September!)

Now Josh Donaldson (whose hair dresser must be a gay Comanche judging from what's left of his scalp) hits the first pitch, which is a 90mph fastball dead over the middle of the plate...first and third. Now, surely, Buck will bring in the closer?

Nope. Leave Ubaldo in. The Law says don't bring in your closer when you don't have the lead...or in a tie game. He might get offended that he's not in a save situation. Don't bring him in even when he is the best pitcher in the AL this year with the lowest ERA, average against, everything. He never blew a save. He has the best sinker (98mph!) ever! No, don't bring that guy in! Not even when you bring the infield in when you absolutely have to have a double play or a strikeout to continue your season. I know, Ubaldo is facing right handed hitters. But right handed hitters don't hit a sinker any better than lefties with Britton. He is a strikeout/ground ball pitcher par excellence and overwhelming all year.

So Ubaldo throws his third straight 90mph fastball down the freaking middle of the plate and Encarnacion hits it two miles. ( I even called it to my wife who could care less) Bye-Bye playoffs for Baltimore.

Worst managing sequence I've ever seen.

Cleveland gave Boston a thumping. Actually the Red Sox were competitive in two of the games but couldn't get the clutch hit. Mr. Screw-what-the-Law says Francona brought in Andrew Miller in the middle of the game to dispose of the Red Sox for two and a half innings. He knew Farrell wouldn't pinch hit for his lefties that early in the game and they didn't and lost their opportunities to score.

Of course Tito didn't have much choice since all of his starters were hurt in the last month. But he was definitely on to something. Desperation breeds Innovation.

I thought the Sox might rally behind Papi when he put a great swing on Miller's slider in the third game but the ball hung up and was caught for a sac fly instead of getting down for a single. Game of inches, folks.

1 for 3 am I. Surprised I am, Yoda. Farewell Papi...see you in the broadcast booth with Pedro.

The Blue Jays, newly inspired after Encarnacion's walk off, stayed hot at the plate and jacked the Rangers all over the field. Too long a lay off for Texas? Probably. Seems to be a consistent theme in the playoffs that teams need a day or two max. After that they forget how to hit. Pitchers like the layoff cause they're used to it anyway. Hitters, not so much. All of us were waiting for a real street fight between these two teams in a grudge match. But the Rangers didn't show up. Especially disappointing were the performances of their two “aces” (intentionally not capitalized to shame them further) Hamels and Darvish. And they lost on a bad relay throw by Odor.

Life is unexpectedly ironic at times. Actually, all the time if you think about it.

Meanwhile I'm 1 for 4 in predictions.

So I had boldly predicted that San Francisco would beat Chicago. I theorized that the Cubs would be over-confident and also would spit the bit under pressure. I said Bumgarner and Cueto would be tough on them and they were. But the Giants needed to win one of those first two games in Chicago. Javier Baez broke up a gem by Cueto with that big homer and the Cubs won 'em both at Wrigley.

Bum-God-ner's turn. Best game of the playoffs. Arrieta comes up with two on and is about 5 seconds late swinging at Bum's fastball...twice. So Bum thinks, “might as well keep my pitch count down with this guy and finish him off.” The next fastball winds up in Never-Never Land...(“I'm flying! Look at me! Way up high! Like a bird...in the sky! I'm not even trying!”)

That was a purple-paisley-jock-shock for sure. Bum gave up another couple of hits before he got his mojo back. To his credit, he shut the Cubs down after that and kept the Gigantics in the game. Then Conor Gillaspie (who can't spell either one of his names apparently) hits a beautiful triple to deep center field off a 104mph Chapman fireball to tie the game. Then Panik wins it in extras with a homer. Shock, awe and the Giant's high water mark for the year. The Cubs should have been looking for their hearts that the Giants had just cut out and left on the field. But these Cubs showed me something...

Cause the next night the Giants got a great game out of Matt Moore and were three runs up in the ninth. Bochy thinks he's safe taking out his starter. Not with the bullpen you got, Bruce! 5 pitchers...walk, hit, hit, hit, hit...truly wretched performance from the Grade F bullpen. Hard to pitch with your hands around your neck, boys.

Cubbies showed some spunk there...they could have given up on that last at bat and dragged ass back to Wrigley. Instead they made history.

Yep. I'm 1 for 5.

The Dodgers and the Nats. Two teams remarkably similar. Both of them have a leftie-heavy lineup and so are vulnerable to left handed pitching. Both of them have young star left-handed hitters to lead them in Harper and Seager. Both of them have strong closers, but are otherwise deficient in the bullpen. Both of them have underachieved in the playoffs in recent years. Both of them feature a Cy Young starter who has coughed up furballs in the playoffs. Both of them have a new manager who is renowned as a “player's” manager. And both of them have suffered major injury problems the last few years.

I picked the Dodgers in a close series because the Dodger's top pitcher, Kershaw, is a leftie and I thought he'd do better against the Nat's lineup than Scherzer, who is a rightie, would do against the Dodger's leftie hitters. (Sounds more complicated than it really is but I wanted to show off how scientific I'm trying to be about these things.)

So Kershaw throws 101 pitches in 5 innings but still holds off the Nats 4-3 and I look like a genius. Scherzer gave up a first inning bomb to Corey Seager and I am a certified Gold-Plated Genius!!

Game 2 the Nats win on Murphy's homer. 5-2. The Dodgers had the lead when Corey Seager hit another first inning homer but had many chances later in the game and couldn't get the hit. The Nats lost their great catcher Ramos to a knee injury late in the year but their backup Lobaton hit a 3-run jack to help win this one.

The Nats treated the Dodgers like red-headed step children in Game 3, an 8-3 blowout. Every pitcher the Dodgers put out there got lit up. Big homers by Rendon and Werth. The Boys in Blue look done.

The game took well over four hours. The seventh inning alone took over an hour! Something must be done! Here's a shopping list for MLB....

1/CUT BACK THE BETWEEN INNING TIME THAT YOU FILL WITH MORE COMMERCIALS YOU GREEDY BASTARDS! These playoff games always feature so many pitching changes that you'll let the networks make up the difference there anyway. With four hour, even three and a half hour games you start to lose the kids and that's your future audience you stone-brains!

2/Want to intentionally walk somebody? Wave at the umpire. We will all surely miss the sizzling excitement of watching the pitcher try not to throw the ball over his catcher's head on four wide ones.

3/Limit everybody's trips to the mound...coaches, managers, catchers. Every trip counts...Only the starting pitcher in each inning can get two before he must be lifted. Every other pitcher comes out on the next visit from anybody. If there's a runner on second you can figure out a way to go to your alternate set of signs without going out to talk about it. Most catcher's trips are to kill time while the next reliever warms up anyway.

4/5 warmup pitches between innings...not 8. It was enough for Grover Cleveland Alexander.

5/Speed up Replays. Hey! New York umps on the game feed! We just saw the replay eight times and you still can't make the call?

6/ Get creative. It's no use trying to change the game and use less pitchers. That's how they manage these days. A new pitcher for every batter who switches from right to left or vice versa. And they'll whine about hurting their arms.
Enforcing a clock between pitches? Yes! Limiting batter's step outs to adjust their f###ing batting gloves? Yes! Umpires must limit step-outs...even on the big stars like Papi...that loveable bat slappin' time WASTER.

There. I just saved you bums twenty-thirty minutes a game.

So in Game 4 the Dodgers finally get to the Nats' bullpen and Chase Utley does something with runners on base besides strike out.

Game 5. All you will remember is the Kershaw relief job after he won the fourth game on short rest, giving up 5 earned. The Big Guy came through for LA. The Nats played honorably but find a way to lose another one.

So now it's the Championship Series of the Leagues. You probably didn't pick Cleveland to get this far and you probably didn't pick them over Toronto.

Toronto had the hitting mo after rattlesnaking the Rangers, but Cleveland didn't play fair. Instead of leaving their weak second string starters in so the Jays could pound them, Tito Francona just brought in a new no-name relief pitcher every other inning and made the Canadians look silly. Francona even started some kid from Texas named Ryan Merritt who was pitching his second major league game. This baby boy may be the new Bird Fydrich. He was squinting to see the catcher's signs and kind of smiling and then calmly,politely and kind of endearingly shutting out the big boys for 4 key innings. He's from my Mama's home town of McKinney,Texas and I love the kid!

This series was essentially a walkover. Toronto got shut out at home in their last game of the year! So now they lose Bautista and Encarnacion to free agency...and don't try to tell me they can resign them. As I've said before, NOBODY stays in Canada and pays higher taxes when they get to their walk year. The Jays still have a good core...they'll be back.

In the NLCS the Dodgers are the roadblock between the loveable Cubbies and baseball redemption. After 5 games of this series, it is apparent that the Cubs can hit anybody on the Dodger's staff not named Kershaw, Hill or Jansen.

So Roberts has saved those guys back and is going to try to win two games in Chicago with those three main arms. He better not put Blanton or Baez or Stripling out there anymore. Those guys helped get Addison Russell and Rizzo off the schneid.

The Cubbies feel better about themselves after two blowout wins at the Stadium...but they weren't facing Kershaw. I see the Dodgers squelching the Cubs in Game 6. Somebody will light up Hendricks with a long ball...I predict Utley or Gonzalez. Kershaw will only need a run or two.

If there's a seventh game at Wrigley, better check the dugouts for albino squirrels or other unlucky creatures that might crawl out on the field and die at home plate or something. There will be a moment when the Cubs will feel the Chill Wind of the Curse feathering up their necks. Then they will either succomb, as so many Cubs teams have before them, or some new baseball legend will arise. Arrieta vs. Hill...a game Dodger squad vs. the New Darlings of MLB.

I don't know who is going to win but I am definitely looking forward to it.

I guess I'll drink a cup of coffee and ask the wife if I can stay up that late....

Enjoy the weekend!

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Playoff Special

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PLAYOFF SPECIAL

You knew it had to come. I couldn't contain myself without bombarding your inbox with my usual line of bullshit about who will win what and why. Well, look at it this way. How gratifying will it be when all my fearless predictions are reduced to ash in the face of the hideous reality of actual baseball facts and you can at least go around the house saying, “I knew that idiot would get it wrong...why oh why did I just go out and bet a thousand dollars on the Cleveland Indians?”

No...I'm not really picking the Indians to go all the way...but they are much more dangerous than they are getting credit for being. You just haven't seen them because nobody shows them on television...(something about ratings being higher for the Boston-New York series?)

Let's talk about the playoffs in just a minute. Right now I want to discuss a weird play that happened a week or so ago.

The Nats are playing Pittsburgh and Bryce Harper of the Nats hits a laser into the right field corner and is stretching it into a triple. Well, I guess Kang, the third baseman of the Pirates, thought Harper might try to go home as the very bad throw came in from the outfield...missing two cut-off men and going up the line into left field. So Kang fakes a tag, getting Harper to stumble into an awkward slide and hurt his thumb. The third base coach was telling him to stand up, but Harper bit on the fake tag and slid.

Baseball tradition says this is a no-no. By faking the tag, Kang endangered Harper. Here, paste this and watch it for yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lsShANCD-k

You also noticed the very expected result of this play...the Pirates pitcher A.J.Cole threw one behind Kang's head next time he came up. (Everybody knew it was coming, and if Cole had just hit him in the butt, nobody would have done anything. By throwing high behind Kang's head, he caused a riot. I have said it before...UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD A PITCHER GET AWAY WITH THROWING AT A BATTER'S HEAD. Just too dangerous. They've got to suspend him. Really. You can't kill a guy for a fake tag. Hit him in the butt and move on. I doubt the Pirates would even have complained. Anyway, that's beside my point.)

My point is that there is a double standard here. Let me take you back to the 1991 World Series. Remember that brilliant game where the Twins, behind Jack Morris at his bulldoggiest, beat the Braves 1-0 in 10 innings in that seventh game? Of course you do. Well, the big play that probably cost the Bravos the series was in the eighth.

Lonnie Smith (known as “Skates” for his misadventures on the basepaths) of the Braves was on first. Terry Pendleton hits a towering double into left center off the wall. As Lonnie charges to second, he loses track of the hit somehow and Chuck Knoblaugh ...second basesman of the Twins....fakes fielding a grounder and fakes a toss to second to Gagne the shortstop, who has collaborated in the ruse by covering second and totally deking Smith. Lonnie almost slides, stumbles and can only make it to third by the time he figures it out. That cost the Braves the run they needed and probably the series.

Of course everybody applauds the Twins' infielders for the excellent deke and mocks Lonnie Smith. Here...paste it and watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM5kHJUBRSE

I agree...bad on Smith and good on the Twins. But isn't this the same kind of dangerous deke as the Kang/Harper play...only at a different base? Both infielders were trying to keep a run from scoring, even though their actions could have (and did in Kang's case) caused an awkward slide that caused an injury. But because it was at third, everybody says “you can't do that” with Kang and because it was at second, “smart play” to Knoblaugh and Gagne.

Baseball recently changed the rules about breaking up a double play at second with a hard slide. You hardly ever saw an infielder even complain about having to jump out of the way of high spikes coming into second because it was considered good baseball for the runner to do anything to break up the double play. Now you come in hard and you get Roughned Odor punching your lights out.

Likewise, everybody accepted a runner practically killing a catcher (who unashamedly blocked the plate without the ball) until Buster Posey got murdered one day and baseball lost one of its brightest stars for a year. So they changed the rule.

My point is, baseball has different traditions about what is allowed depending on the base involved. The interference rule is called differently and always has been. Come in spikes high at second, the infielder used to nod and say “good hard play”. Do it at third and you had a fistfight. Run into the catcher at home...gutsy ball! Step on the first baseman as you run down the line...fistfight.

The rule says the runner is not allowed to interfere with the defensive player's attempt to make the play. But it's a rule that has never been equitably enforced. The changes in the enforcement at second and home have helped the game by keeping our players injury free.

Maybe they'll eventually clarify what should be and shouldn't be allowed as to deking the runner.

Now, My Hearties, what's gonna happen in the playoffs?

Well, I haven't the slightest idea who is going to win these wild card games.

Ha! Some pundit I turned out to be. But really, how can you handicap a one game playoff like that? Any team in baseball could win that game. The only modifier is the starting pitchers and how hot they are coming in.

Every once in awhile, a real pitching Titan emerges that you just can't see anybody beating. And yet they all get beat once in awhile. Koufax seemed to be unbeatable til the Orioles walloped him in '66. Gibson seemed unhittable til the Tigers got to him (with a lot of help from an outfield error by Curt Flood) in '68. In the current era Kershaw pitches out of his mind til the playoffs. Arrieta looked unstoppable til this season. And Bumgarner...well more on him later.

If one of those guys is taking the mound, you bet on them. But they will lose their share. That's baseball.

In the AL wild card matchup tonight, no titans will be starting. Stroman for the Blue Jays and Tillman for the Orioles are both good pitchers who have been wildly erratic this season. I don't see either of them getting to the seventh inning. So it comes down to which team's big boppers will make the most noise before the bullpens come into play.

If the Blue Jays get to Tillman and Donaldson or Encarnacion get hold of one with men on....they can beat the Orioles before that great bullpen gets going. If they are behind in the eighth, forget it. Showalter will bring in Zach Britton and that's all she wrote. Nobody hits that 98 mph SINKER he throws. Most unhittable pitch since Mike Scott of the Astros had that hard split finger going in the '80s. (Scott was actually doctoring the ball, but he hid it well. Britton is probably doing something to the ball too but they can't catch him. A 98mph pitch shouldn't move that sharply downward.)

The Orioles are one-dimensional. They hit the long ball. That's it. They don't steal and they only had, I think, 5 triples all year. Lowest total ever. And Manny Machado has been in a terrible slump. But they can hit Stroman so they can win it with the bullpen.

I'd like to see the Blue Jays win and get to have a 5 game death-match with the Rangers in a reprise of last year's debacle. But I pick the Orioles.

The NL Wild Card is even harder to predict. The Mets have been living on fumes, pitching-wise. But they have Syndergaard ready for this one big game. And he's awesome. Also, they are playing at home and their hitters have been taking turns being the hero every game. Advantage Mets, right?

One little bitty roadblock, New York, and his name is Bumgarner. Look up the definition of “gamer” in the baseball dictionary and you'll see a picture of the big North Carolinian leftie. This guy is so fierce and so focused and just so damn COMMITTED to beating you. What a player.

The Giants may not score on Syndergaard. And the Metskies have Familia coming out of the pen instead of Romo. I predict a 1-0 or 2-1 game, but I am never going to bet against Bumgarner. I just don't care. He might hit a homer and win his own game. And remember...it's an even numbered year. Advantage Giants!

If the Giants win the Wild Card game, I pick them to beat the Cubs as I outlined in my last blog. It's a 5 game series and the Giants will have both Cueto and Bumgarner pitching on good rest, with Samardzja, Matt Moore and this new phenom Blach all available to help the diseased bullpen. I think the Cubs hitters will fold under pressure. They rely too heavily on Bryant and Rizzo.

The Giants have no hitters to rely on! They've sucked year-long! No pressure! They'll scratch a few runs out on the Cub's great pitchers and win it in 5.

If the Mets win the Wild Card Game, I think the Cubs will beat them. They saw a lot better pitching from the Mets last year. Syndergaard will only pitch one game.

In the AL, the Orioles will lose to the Rangers, who have a much more balanced offense, defense and pitching staff. The Rangers also have several inspirational leaders in Odor, Beltre and Hamels.

If the Blue Jays get to that series, they will also lose to the Rangers.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have carefully avoided playing the Wild Card winner (both Baltimore and Toronto know them and their pitchers only too well, and look forward to continuing the feast) and have lost their way into a series with Cleveland, who has the home court advantage. I look for the Sox to win, but it will be close. Kluber and Trevor Bauer are going to try to carry the Indians staff. But they have Andrew Miller in the pen, and he can pitch a couple of 2 inning saves for them.

I'll take the Sox in a squeeker.

So I see the Sox and the Rangers in the 7 game playoff finale. Sox in 7. Too much Ortiz. Too much Pedroia. Too much Mookie Betts.

The Big If with the Sox is how Price will pitch. This year exposed him. He used to throw 96 and pound the zone (as all the hip sportscasters like to say) Now he throws 92 and avoids the strike zone. He throws more breaking stuff and just tries to tickle the edges of the zone with his vulnerable fast ball. When he tries to throw it by somebody, they murder it. He gave up 30 homers this year. If Price can't be their number two after Rick Porcello, the Sox are going to have to get somebody to step up...either Eduardo Rodriguez or the ghost of Clay Bucholtz. Losing the knuckler of Wright was a big setback.

After the Gigantes disappoint the Cub fans, they will lose to the winner of the Washington/Los Angeles series which will be won by...the Dodgers. (If the Cubs get out of the first series, I give them a better chance of beating the Dodgers than they have to beat the Giants. They were 4-3 vs. both teams. I'll still take the Dodgers though.)

Washington lost too many good players to injury. They have Scherzer ready to pitch twice though, and they might win both of those games. But I don't think they will. Scherzer might strike out twenty guys, but somebody will touch him for a homer...that's been his story all year. (31 dingers allowed)

The Dodgers are loosey goosey...I think they are ready to compete and I think Kershaw will pitch great. Maeda and Hill should give them the ups over the rest of the National's staff. And I'll take the Dodger closer Kenly Jansen over the Nats' Melancon. LA is also 5-1 against the Nats this year.

After they dispose of the Nats, the Dodgeheads will beat the Giants in 6. The Dodgers are tired of losing to the San Francisco Giants. Bumgarner may win two, but the Dodgers...with the home field advantage...will prevail. And don't discount the Vin Scully factor. This is Hollywood, after all.

As far as my World Series predictions: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.

I'm going to save that one for my next blog....

As Fats Waller once said...”One never know, do one?”

Marco's Baseball Blog-o-Roonie: SEPT. 2016 RAMBLE TAMBLE RACES

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: RAMBLE TAMBLE RACE

September 17, 2016

As you may have noticed as you peruse these ramblings, I have been a bit negatory about the quality of the pennant races this year. I predicted that the National League races would come down to Washington, New York and an outside shot for Miami in the East, St. Louis, Chicago and Pittsburgh in the Central and Los Angeles and San Francisco in the West. Everybody else would be pretty much irrelevant and though I take no pride of prescience for these fairly obvious conclusions...I was right.

Washington is a shoo-in for first in the East. I predicted New York but their rotation blew up, leaving only Thor Syndergaard and The Ageless One Colon to keep them in it. Matz...hurt. Harvey...operated upon. DeGrom....arm problems. Pennant hopes...damaged.

Somehow the Metskies have survived, and even gone on a short 7 game winning streak until the Nats bopped them upside the head the other night. Thor...if they don't watch out they'll blow his elbow out too. Colon...that guy could pitch out of his coffin. What an eternal arm. I am dubious that the Mets can make a wild card. They have a real tough schedule.

As far as the Nats go...I guess Murphy has to be their MVP...maybe the league's too. He's absolutely killed the Mets all year. Harper has been strangely ineffective since May. They lost Steven “my elbow always hurts 'cause I throw wrong” Strasburg...probably for the duration, but Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and maybe Roark give them three good starters to win playoffs with. They have a chance to advance over the Dodgers, who they will most likely meet in the playoffs unless San Francisco shows late life.

San Fran...best record in baseball before the break....worst record in baseball after the break! How do you figure that team? They are a bunch of Jekyll/Hydes. Their three, four and five spots in the rotation have been truly miserable outside of an occasional flurry from “The Shark” Samardzja. With Cueto and Bumgarner and the newly acquired Matt Moore, the Giants figure to be the team nobody wants to face in the Wild Card game or Playoffs...Bumgarner is just too scary in a big game. I predict that if the Gigantes make the Wild Card, they will win it over either St. Louis or New York (I'm writing off Pittsburgh and Miami now) and then be primed for the Cubs. Their problem has been offense. Buster Posey hasn't hit a homer in, I think, 49 games now!

The Cubs, of course, are the Team of Destiny this year. Personally, I call that the Kiss of Death designation. The Cubs can find ways to lose, believe me. Let's imagine a scenario...

Bumgarner pitches a gem in the Wild Card game, overcoming the Cardinals. The Giants split the two games in Wrigley to start the playoffs with Cueto winning the first game. Back in San Fran, Bumgarner goes on a full 4 days rest and beats the Cubs again. (Remember this is only a 5-game round, so now the Giants only have to win 1 of the next 2). Boche decides not to go with Cueto in the 4^th game on 3 days rest and starts Matt Moore. If Moore wins, it's over. If he loses, they get another day off and Cueto goes back to Wrigley on 5 full days of rest with Bumgarner available out of the pen. I don't know about you, but I like the Giants' chances in a short series with that many off-days and quality starters.

Now, I hasten to add, the Cubbies have some starters of their own. Arrieta, Lester, Hamels and Hendricks are all great, and Lackey is now healthy and a proven gamer. They've also got 105 mph out in the pen in Senor Chapman.

Trouble is, the Cubs are EXPECTED to win this year. They've been the best team in baseball all year and that's a subtle kind of pressure.

The Giants will be playing with house money and Big Game Bumgarner out there. The Cubs also strike out too much and that can bite you when you're trying to eke out wins by a run or two in a tight game. But...they have the best infield defense in baseball, a very good outfield defense, plenty of hitters and a secret weapon in David Ross at catcher. He handles those pitchers like a maestro.

Maybe Maddon can keep them loose but I think that's a “trap” series.

By the way, I officially bestow the nickname “Stork” upon long, lanky Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs sensational young starter, currently leading the league in ERA and WHIP. If Samardzja is the Shark, this guy gets to be the Stork. Remember Ted “The Mad Stork” Hendricks who used to play linebacker for the Raiders in the 60's? (don't tell me you're too young!) In his honor, all lanky players in any sport named Hendricks should be officially designated as “Stork”.

Pittsburgh has missed the exit that says “This way to the World Series.” Not enough pitching after Gerrit Cole got hurt. He never made it back for long and is now on the DL for the third time. They traded Liriano and the closer Melancon so they kind of threw in the towel there. Harrison is hurt now. Polanco slumped. Marte has been great but now is banged up. Andrew McCutcheon got tired of getting hit with revenge fastballs and decided to be a .240 hitter. Sad Sad.

The Cardinals had several injuries and the young hitters (Grichuk, Piscotty, Wong, Hazelbaker) couldn't stay hot.

Once Wacha went down they finally ran dry of fresh starters. (All except Martinez have WHIPS above 1.3)I guess Carpenter and Molina and Wainwright are the leaders on that team but they just don't match up with the Cubs. I say they make the Wild Card but that's about it.

The Dodgers...ah, yes, the Dodgers. I thought Dave Roberts would make a difference on the mentality of that club. Maybe it's him, maybe not....but the Dodgers are loose. They didn't panic when Kershaw went down. Management traded for Rich Hill who's been great. They weren't afraid to send Puig down for a reality check in the minors. The young hitters, especially Seager, have done their part and the vets like Gonzalez and Turner and Utley have been cool and mostly productive.

Roberts showed me something when he made that very tough call to take Hill out a game after he'd pitched 7 perfect innings because a blister was forming on his finger. Hey, the manager is supposed to do the best thing for the club to advance, and losing Hill for the rest of the season was not going to help that. A blister is an injury when it's on a pitcher's throwing finger. Hill has a bad history with blisters. Not the manager's fault. He made the right call. Agonizing call though it was.

Kershaw is “back strong”. (no pun intended but it works, don't you think?). If Kershaw can break even with Scherzer, the Dodgeheads could advance.

NL MVP CANDIDATES:

EAST: Murphy/Nats

CENTRAL: Bryant, Rizzo/Cubs Joey Votto/Reds (he won't win but he's hit .421 the second half. Are you kidding?)

WEST: Seager/Dodgers Arenado/Rockies

I'll take Murphy.

NL CY YOUNG CANDIDATES: (lots of 'em!)

EAST: Syndergaard/Mets Scherzer/Nats Fernandez/Marlins

CENTRAL: Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta/Cubs

WEST: Kershaw/Dodgers Bumgarner, Cueto/Giants

Scherzer is my choice.

AL: Now things get interesting! 10 teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and 6 could still win a division title.

The real stunner is how close the East has remained all season.

At first you think Baltimore is pulling away. Then they go flat. Then the Birds come back with all those big homers and a shut down closer in Britton.

The Red Sox make it through a mine field of West coast trips and a murderous 43 game stretch against mostly contending opponents and come out of it...can you believe it?...with a 25-18 record. Then they go home and drop 2 to Baltimore.

Toronto seems like the team to beat most of the season until Joey Bats and Donaldson get banged up and all of a sudden they're losing all the close games. But they're still tied for a wild card spot.

And New York...New York!... who folded their hand and dealt two thirds of their miracle bullpen and their best hitter Beltran and started playing rookies. Wait til next year-New York...finally trying to get out from under all those horrible big contracts. New York started winning and hasn't stopped. Now they play the Sox 7 times in the last two weeks. That should tell the tale right there. (They just lost the heartbreaker of the year when Hanley Ramirez touched them for a walk off in game one at Fenway. They lost the next one too. Now the Yanks have to rally to split the series at Fenway and win 2 out of 3 at the Stadium to stay in it.)

An interesting dynamic is how the September call-ups of minor league prospects and vets reclaimed from the DL has affected the races. The Red Sox got to try Moncado at third. He struck out 8 times in a row at one point but could still be a valuable pinch runner for the time being.

They can also keep three catchers on the roster now.

New york came up with the big Sanchez at catcher who hit 11 homers in his first 20 games or something. Of course, they were going to put him at catcher regardless. What an arm!

Some people say the September call ups screw up the race but I think it reflects the strength of an organization, and that's certainly a factor in winning, isn't it? Sure fills out the bullpens and makes for interminable game lengths.

Over in the Central it's been Cleveland for quite a while now. They made the big trade for Andrew Miller (betcha the Yanks wish they'd kept that guy).

It looked like Kansas City was making a push behind their inspirational leader Hosmer, but they came up short on starting pitching and had Lorenzo Cain hurt his wrist. I think they are out of it now, if not mathematically.

Detroit is still alive but lost to Minnesota a couple of times. Can't do that and make up ground on all those behemoth teams ahead of them. There's been a Justin Upton sighting. After posting sub-Mendoza numbers all year, he makes it all up in one September and will probably wind up with 25 dingers and 85 rbis. So he looks consistent but is anything but.

The West has seen Texas surge into an insurmountable lead for the division, but Houston and Seattle are still alive in the Wild Card.

Texas very cagily went out and traded for Jonathon Lucroy...a top 5 catcher...from the Brewers. That solidified them at the backstop and he's hitting .300. They also got Beltran from the fire-sale Yanks but Carlos went bust so far. He might have gotten 2 or 3 hits, hard to find anything but zeros in the box scores.

Their main problem is pitching. Hamels was steady all year but suddenly got tired and blew up in several starts. Without him they don't have a chance of advancing very far in the playoffs, I don't think. Darvish came back but is not blowing people away with that rebuilt arm. The rest of the staff is game but shaky. They need somebody to emerge.

Their offense is plenty good. Led by MVP candidate Beltre, the youngsters like Profar and Mazara are doing well. Their fireplug is that second baseman Odor. What a pistol. Kind of a Pete Rose type with Hot Sauce. Surprising power. Like Altuve, a little guy with pop.

Houston was coming on strong until Cy Younger Dallas Kuechel went down. That'll kill your Mo. They don't have much behind him and they cannot beat the Rangers. Altuve has finally worn down a little after being lights out all season. What a player! Should be the MVP cause he just carries that team. Should be a leadoff hitter but they have to bat him third cause he's their only good high average hitter with power. Everybody else just tries to get one dinger per twenty strikeouts. I think Houston is done for this year.

Here's a little aside: How about all the star second basemen all of a sudden?

1/Altuve/Astros/.341/24/94/.952ops/27sb

2/Murphy/Nats/.350/25/104/.992 3/Dozier/Twins/.282/41/98/.934

4/LeMahieu/Rockies/.349/10/62/.914

5/Cano/Mariners/.296/33/87/.865

6/Odor/Rangers/.281/31/85/.820

7/Segura/Diamondbacks/.316/16/56/.845/30sb

8/Pedroia/Red Sox/.329/13/66/.849

...that's right...Dustin Pedroia is hitting .329 and he's maybe 8^th on the second base depth chart!! And I didn't even mention Kipnis, Kinsler, Schoop and Castro...all with over 20 homers!

Seattle is maybe the sleeper team. They've won 8 in a row and everybody is getting hot at once. Even the ever-enigmatic Taijaun Walker has been lights out. Cruz is bombing for 37 taters. Cano has been hitting all year and still not running out ground balls.

CY YOUNG CANDIDATES:

East: Tanaka/Yanks Porcello/Red Sox (Wright got hurt) Britton/Orioles

Central: Kluber/Indians Sale/White Sox

West: Hamels/Rangers

I give it to Kluber because Sale acted like a baby and cut up his old-timer's uniform.

MVP CANDIDATES:

East: Ortiz,Betts/Red Sox Donaldson,Encarnacion/Blue Jays

Manchado/Orioles

Central: Hosmer/Royals (won't win but deserves votes) Dozier/Twins

West: Beltre,Odor/Rangers Altuve/Astros Trout/Angels Cruz/Mariners

My winner: very close between Altuve and Ortiz. Altuve has carried his team all season. He's very far above everybody else on this list as a complete player with his running ability, hitting for high average, power and gold glove defense all a factor in helping his team win. Even though his team probably won't make the playoffs, it's not because Altuve didn't do everything he could do. Without him, where are the Astros? Trout and Dozier are similar to Altuve in that they play for losing teams but absolutely carry them.

Ortiz is a special case. His numbers are very MVP worthy...top 5 in batting, ribbies, doubles, close in homers. He doesn't run and he doesn't play defense so that has to set him back behind Altuve.

Papi's intangibles, however, are off the charts. He's the only Red Sox who hasn't had a significant slump this year. He's still the guy they want up with the game on the line, even at age 40. He's still the guy you want backing you up in a fight on the field. He's still the guy they want in the dugout. The unquestioned spiritual leader...the face of the franchise...the living legend. Look in the dugout and all the young players are hugging him like he was Santa Claus or something. (If Santa Claus was occasionally getting rung up on a checked swing and taking a bat to his sleigh in the dugout!) Hell, even the opposing players are always hugging him. He's the League Teddy Bear. Offensively, he gives the rest of the lineup and all those youngsters and head cases lots of cover. He's the focus batting third. The game comes through his at bats. The rest of the guys can relax and work out their issues and develop. He even takes care of most of the media demands.

I say that's unbelievably valuable...but how do you really measure it? Give it to Altuve...a fabulous player. But remember what 40-year-old David Ortiz did this season.

Adios, Big Papi...hopefully we'll see you in the Playoffs!

(dream sequence)* I CAN SEE IT NOW! The Red Sox playing the Cubs in the World Series. Fenway and Wrigley...old time parks to help us venerate the history and majesty of baseball. The Monster and the Ivy. Theo Epstein comes back to haunt his old employers and he brings Lester and David Ross with him. And he brings Chapman to continue torturing his old Al East opponents.

But wait a minute...Ortiz can't play at Wrigley unless you sit Hanley...the damn DH rule screws up the Red Sox chemistry! I guess they'll just have to win a few at Fenway.

I CAN SEE IT NOW!

I better go take a melatonin and have a nap.