Marco's Baseball Blog-o-roonie: THE CONTENDERS!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE:

THE CONTENDERS!

I know what you are thinking....this Sept. pennant race is pretty boring. Especially in the National League where the Mets have a 4 game lead over the Nats, the ever-excellent Cardinals are up by 6 1/2 over the Pirates and L.A. Is leaving San Fran in the dust by 8 1/2.

The Pirates and the Cubs are the second and third best teams in the league and are way up in the wild card quest. Either would be way ahead in the other two divisions.

So count your chickens, right? Not so fast...here's a cautionary tale from the baseball archives:

HOW THE PHILLIES BLEW IT IN 1964

Nobody expected the Phils to be any good in 1964. They didn't have a very deep pitching staff and manager Gene Mauch had only 3 regulars who were in the lineup daily...Johnny Callison at first, Tony Taylor at second and rookie of the year Dick Allen at third. Every other position was platooned...largely by players who couldn't hit. Only Allen batted over .300 and he hit 29 homers while Callison had 31 with a .274. Newly acquired ace Jim Bunning came over from the Tigers and won 19 games while leftie Chris Short won 17 with a 2.20 ERA. The rest of the staff was exceedingly mediocre.

Not exactly a juggernaut, right?

But the Phils started fast and smoked the League. They went into first on July 17 and stayed there. On Sept. 21 they were 6 ½ up on the Reds and Cardinals and 7 up on the Giants with 12 games to go. Even if those teams won all of their remaining games, the Phils would only have to win 7 of 12 to win the pennant. It would take a total collapse for the Phillies to lose it.

Of course, that's what happened.

The problems had actually started earlier in the month. Several pitchers got hurt and the rotation was breaking down. Mauch decided to set up his rotation for the Series just a little early and on Sept. 17 pitched Jim Bunning on two days rest against the hapless Houston Colt .45s. Bunning was coming off a 10-inning complete game with well over 100 pitches but Mauch figured he could handle the Colts anyway. Bunning gave up 6 runs over 4 ½ innings.

What followed was several more close losses and many questionable decisions. Mauch kept making Dick Allen sacrifice bunt even though noodle-bat Bobby Wine was batting behind him. Bobby kept not knocking in the runners. People stole home on them to win games. The bullpen imploded...and yet they were still way ahead with twelve games remaining.

Mauch panicked and started pitching Bunning and Short on two days rest for the duration of the season. They lost ten straight games and the Cardinals unexpectedly won the pennant by a game and went on to defeat the Yankees in the series.

It ain't over til it's over, Ball Fans.

Here's a critique of The Contenders in both leagues...starting with the Senior Circuit.

NL EAST: The Mets have the easiest schedule the rest of the way. They also have the best starter-performance recently so it seems reasonable to assume they should hold onto first place.

Cespedes has provided them with right-handed clout even though he's hitting only .208 against lefties this year. He's hit 29 homers for the Tigers and Mets this season and 20 of them have been on the road. He has only 4 total at Citi Field.

Cespedes is a weird player. He's a power bat with exciting offensive skills and lots of charisma. He has the best outfield arm in baseball, but all his highlight throws seem to come after he has totally botched a fielding play and has to make up for it with an arm bomb. Even though he has a right field arm, he doesn't really like to play anywhere but left, where he often doesn't back up drives in the gap that bounce back over the center fielder.

When Cespedes was with the Red Sox, the whisper was that he was a toothache in the clubhouse. He's been traded from Oakland to Boston to Detroit to New York in the span of one and a half seasons, but that's probably because he's a free agent and nobody wants to be stuck with the “old maid” card.

Yoenis had an awesome day in Philadelphia where he hit 3 homers and drove in a bunch of runs. The whole team had a hitting splurge there for awhile...but again...that was on the road against the Rockies and the Phillies. Nobody hits like that at Citi. And that's part of the reason the pitching staff looks so good. The park keeps offense down.

Suddenly, just when the Metros looked to be in cruise control right into the playoffs, a big distraction.

Matt Harvey is the Ace of the staff and his agent, the infamous Scott Boras, reminded the Mets that they had agreed to limit Harvey to 180 innings this year. Matt is coming back from Tommy John surgery and his doctor evidently thinks he is risking damage if he exceeds this arbitrary limit. So here the Mets are, making a run at the end of the season, and their Ace is at 166 innings...one extra inning game away from this suggested danger point.

Big kerfuffle in New York. Harvey equivocated and postponed a press conference. The New York fans and media pounced. They want to win and they need their star to produce in the stretch run and hopefully get them to the playoffs. Harvey seemed to agree with his agent and we're looking at a repeat of the Stephen Strasburg fiasco of two years ago when the Nats shut him down when they had a chance to make the series. The Nats of course, lost in the playoffs and haven't made headway since.

Harvey had to backtrack and he came out with this gem: “I will pitch in the playoffs”, thus reaffirming his manhood.

I cringed when I heard this statement because Harvey seemed to be assuming that making the playoffs was a given for this wonderful, predestined Mets team. Oh Yeah? See the above story about the '64 Phillies.

A 2-8 record over the next week and a half while Washington wins a bunch puts the Mets out of the wild card picture and forces them to win the East to make the playoffs. Memories of other Met collapses of the past should have precluded Harvey or any other Met from making any kind of assumption about making the playoffs.

Matt Harvey has tweaked the noses of the Baseball Gods and that, my friends, is exceedingly Bad Juju.

The Washington Nationals have covered themselves in glory this year, haven't they? They were so glib and coy about being the favorites. Their starting rotation was truly scary, based on past performance.

Well, first they got hurt and are winding the year up with no leadoff hitter (losing Denard Span) and only occasional help from last year's heroes Werth, Zimmerman and Rendon. They've had nobody to protect Harper in the lineup all year. (Which makes Harper's year all the more impressive). Second, the defense has sucked year long.

And the vaunted rotation? Only Max Scherzer has an ERA under 3 runs a game, and he had a bad losing streak after pitching his no-hitter. The rest have been very ordinary.

The Nationals have laid an egg so far. I doubt they can right the ship and overtake the Mets, but it could happen. The Wild Card seems out of reach. Their schedule is favorable and they get to play all those bad teams in the NL East. Trouble is...so do the Mets! A three game set with the Mets starting on Labor Day should tell us what we need to know. They also have three at the end of the year.

Mathematically the Nats have a chance. Their rotation is set up for the Mets and all their erstwhile DL Dandies are hitting better. If I were the Mets, I'd avoid pitching to Mr. Harper.

NL CENTRAL: St. Louis is lollygagging into the playoffs with the best record in baseball...87-48. They've had extraordinary injuries to major contributors but have plugged in talented farmhands and continued to dominate the league.

Pitching is the major advantage the Cards have over everybody else. Starters Lackey, Martinez, Wacha, Lynn and Garcia all have ERAs under 3.04 and their bullpen leads in saves. They might even get Wainwright back for the stretch run. That kind of depth should get them far along in the playoffs.

The Pirates have beat up on the NL East and West but can't beat the other teams in the Central. Their record against the Reds? 4-9. Brewers? 6-7. If they were .500 against those two teams they'd be tied for first. They're looking at a play-in game against either the Cubs or maybe the Giants which means they'll have to either beat Arrieta or Bumgarner. Long odds on the Pirates making the Series.

The Cubs are everybody's sweetmeat right now with all their cute little rookies. But Kris Bryant has 163 strike outs in only 125 games. Russell, Soler and Dexter Fowler are all well over 100 K's and Schwarber has 55 in only 48 games. That's a lot of whiffing.

Arrieta has been great but the rest of their starters are average. All the other contenders have better pitching except for the Giants.

NL WEST: The Dodgers got no-hit twice in one week! Then they came back and swept the Giants at home. Now that the Giants have hit the wall, the Dodgers should cruise, but beware of the schedule.

The Giants have got it easy the rest of the way and the Dodgers have to play tougher teams, but as long as Greinke and Kershaw are pitching so well, the Dodgers have a firewall. If they make the playoffs...and they should...Bolsinger is going to be key as a third starter. That's assuming Kershaw doesn't curl up and die against the Cardinals like he has the last two years. The trade for fourth and fifth starters Latos and Wood looks okay for Wood, a total bust for Latos.

As far as hitting goes, Crawford, Puig and Peterson are all underachieving at the plate. Peterson never recovered from the home run derby jinx (see my comments last issue) and Puig is Mr. Hamstring. Crawford is just old and done.

Ethier has been a Godsend for them and Adrian Gonzalez has carried them all season.

The interesting thing about the Dodgers is the reuniting of Chase Utley with his old Phillies double play partner Jimmy Rollins. Both of these guys have had miserable offensive years but now that they are together, I sense an interesting dynamic with these old pros wanting one more shot at glory. I think they provide a spark and a veteran presence.

Corey Seager is the rookie sensation the Dodgeheads just brought up but I don't see them playing him at short in the stretch run. You may see him at third with Turner moving over to second in rotation with Utley and Howie Kendrick.

Pity the poor Giants! It's not an even numbered year so their mojo doesn't work. They were doing great until they lost Pence, Panik and Crawford (the last two are just coming back)....three of their four best hitters (along with Posey). Too much to overcome, especially when Bumgarner is their only real pitcher. Even he can't do it all himself.

The only thing in their favor is the schedule. They finally got through the tough part and only play one team with a winning record the rest of the way....the Dodgers come to San Francisco. But so far, the Giants have been losing to people like the Rockies. Can't make up ground like that. The Giants will need a major hot streak.

AL EAST: I like the Toronto Blue Jays. I enjoy watching good hitters. Generally, I think baseball is much more exciting when guys are hitting doubles and homers and running the bases.

The Jays have four great pro hitters in their lineup: Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and Tulowitzski. Plus some good pieces like Travis, Revere and Colabello hitting over .300 and Martin, Smoak, Carrera, Pillar and Goins all contributing. They have by far the best scoring offense in baseball. (730 runs scored)

With all that, I still don't think they are going to win the pennant.

Oh sure, they'll make the playoffs. Maybe even win the East. I just don't think they have enough pitching. Their bullpen gives up a lot of late runs and their starters are very iffy after David Price. Estrada and Buehrle are solid but unspectacular pitchers who give up homers and don't strike people out enough. Dickey's knuckleball hasn't been as effective in Toronto because knucklers give up fly balls and a lot of those flies that were outs in Citi Field when Dickey was a Cy Young winner with the Mets have turned into homers in hitter-friendly Toronto. One joker in the deck...injured starter (and assumed pre-season Ace of the staff) Marcus Stroman is ready to come back and pitch. If he's up to speed he could really help the Jays' cause.

Pitching wins playoffs. I think Kansas City will carve up these Canadians.

The New York Yanquis...they still have a swagger to them, don't they? When the Jays got hot and took over first, the Yanks stayed right with them. I don't see them folding anytime soon.

The Yanks had it going when their double trouble lead off guys Ellsbury and Gardner were hot. Now those two are playing hurt. They've both stopped stealing bases. Texeira is hurt and on the DL. They've plugged in rookies but their offense now seems to be everybody try to hit a pop fly over the short right field porch. Shortstop Didi Gregorius has been a big surprise at the plate.

The Pinstripers usually line up 8 left-handed hitters against righties. So if New York plays the Wild Card game, they can expect to face either the Rangers' Cole Hamels or the Astros' Dallas Keuchel. That's tough left-handed pitching.

If they are going to advance, I think the Yanks need to win the East.

AL CENTRAL: ...Kansas City has the best overall defense, the best team speed, the best bullpen and enough starters and offense to keep grinding out the wins. They've been pretty clutch with Hosmer, Cain and Morales and 7 players with over 10 homers. They have to be the favorites in any playoff series in the AL this year because they've been so good all year.

One alarm bell is going off: Their rented Ace for the second half of the season, Johnny Cueto, has an ERA of over 9 for the last 5 games.

It would be a shame if this team finally goes into a slump in the final 25 games.

The Minnesota Twinks are still in it. What a stubborn, dirt-eating bunch of sonuvagun ball players! Let's just give Paul Molitor the manager of the year award right now. How can he have done so much with so little all season?

I'll never say anything bad about the Twinks again...except for calling them Twinks just for old times' sake.

The Cleveland Indians (still politically incorrect after all these years) are mathematically alive but really, they are looking ahead to next year, when they should be good. Their young starters are coming around and they already have some good, established stars like Brantley, Lindor, Kipnis and Kluber.

AL WEST: Now it gets dicey. I really don't have a clue as to who will win but I'll try to sound knowledgeable and sure of myself so I can justify my own blogging.

The Astros are the definite favorites to go all the way unless the Rangers are somewhat better while the Angels sneak up on everybody. I feel very forcefully that Houston will keep confusing everybody by losing all their away games and stomping the pee out of everybody at home.

The Rangers will rally and hit when they aren't pitching and pitch when they aren't hitting, thus rendering themselves impossible to predict.

And the Angels will sink to the depths of the division while Pujols nurses a bad foot just as Trout gets over a bad hand and starts hitting homers again.

Seriously, I don't think the Angels have enough starting pitching to get over the hump.

I think either Texas or Houston will win the division and the other one will just edge out Minnesota for the second wild card behind New York.

Gird your loins! It's time for the stretch run!