Marco’s Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2024: Baseball commits seppuku? And...National League Predictions
We’ve been prematurely giddy in our celebration of the Los Angeles Dodgers and their new super no-expense-has-been -spared team of future Hall of Famers. Lest we be hasty, let me assure you that the looming shadow of illegal gambling, even if it’s not on baseball games, is a spectre of death and destruction in this sport, traditionally.
1919 Black Sox throw the World Series… Babe Ruth has to triple the home run record in 1920 just to lure the fans back.
In 1920, Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker, both all time greats, were implicated in an end of the season series of fixed games to cash in on the rampant corruption poisoning the game in that era.
Player manager of the Detroit Tigers, Ty Cobb, arranged the fix with Speaker, the player manager of the Cleveland Indians. The facts didn’t come out until 1926, when both Speaker and Cobb were forced to retire. A payoff of 20,000 was paid to pitcher Dutch Leonard of the Tigers and an embarrassing letter of contrition supposedly written by Cobb was covered up by Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis. Landis didn’t think baseball could take another gambling scandal and since it was old news by 1927 he managed to cover it up.
You already know about Pete Rose and his sorry-ass performance as a gambling addict and admitted liar. Still banned for life.
Well, the absolute worst thing you can possibly imagine would be if baseball’s New Golden Prince, the fabulous Shohei Ohtani, participated in some kind of shady gambling pay off. Especially with Rob Manfred’s (the new Kennesaw Commissioner) new deal with Vegas to promote betting on ball games. I can’t imagine a bigger disaster for baseball, so I’m just hoping that Shohei wasn’t a bettor himself and was just covering for his interpreter to save his ass from the Yakuza or some such madness.
The interpreter’s story has already changed a couple of times, as has Ohtani’s claim that he was robbed and never authorized a check for four million supposedly written on his bank account and used by said interpreter to pay off his vig. The story already reeks of COVER UP. Talk about a lightning bolt of shit aimed at the National Pastime! “Say it ain’t so, Sho’!”
Since events have evidently not yet been shaped into their final proportions of disgrace, there is nothing we can do but soldier on and play pick the posies of Spring training as we get ready to banish hideous reality by thinking about our favorite soporific, BASEBALL…
How about those Dodgers, anyway??!!
TEAM PREDICTIONS:
NL WEST:
DODGERS:
WILL FINISH: FIRST IN THE DIVISION
And you thought gambling was the problem?
Have you noticed that Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he of the $325 million contract, has not exactly been mowing down opposing hitters? As a matter of fact, he’s been getting bombed.
I think he’s just not used to the American baseball (Japanese baseballs are a little smaller) and his control is suffering. I saw Yammy demo his splitter in a close up and his hands are very small for a power pitcher. Of course, in that first outing of the spring he was missing bats by two feet with that splitter. He’ll come around.
The Angelinos need Yamamoto to produce because their starting staff is full of questionable health. Kershaw, Buehler, Glasnow, Dustin May, Ohtani...none of these guys can seem to make it through a season without an elbow transplant. The Dodgers are strong in the bullpen, though.
The lineup starts off with three awesome players: Betts, Freeman and Ohtani. Ooooo! Aaahh! They’re so good! Then you have several human ceiling fans who hit an occasional home run. Guys like Max Muncy (last year he struck out 153 times in 135 games), James Outman (181 in 151) and Chris Taylor (125 in 117) Maybe new outfielder Teoscar Hernandez will help redeem the bottom of the lineup. Wait a minute… (Teoscar had 211 Ks in 160 games?)
Just take notice that the Dodgers don’t have a special lineup after the top three. Atlanta has a better 1 through 9. So do the Phillies. Over in the other league, the Baltimore Orioles are close to scary with their lineup of young bashers. Defending champ the Texas Rangers have two super-rooks who upgrade the outfield for an already great offense: Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.
Add these A.L. teams to your pitcher’s nightmares: New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and ...the Houston Astros. The Astros especially...if they can stay off the IL for a season, this may be the best in all of baseball. And Yordan Alvarez is the equal of any of the Dodgers’ big three as a straight offensive force.
Still, you’ve gotta figure with their depth the Dodgers will finish first in the division. They aren’t a sure thing but who else would you bet on….wooops!!!
DIAMONDBACKS:
WILL FINISH: SECOND
The Snakes rocked as a wild card last year and gained new respect in the Playoffs. They ran out of pitchers and lost the Series to the Rangers, but had a good run. Well done Snakes!
Arizona has gone with speed and defense and it paid off. Catcher Gabriel Moreno won a Gold Glove and can hit too.
Christian Walker won the double G at first and centerfielder Alek Thomas was a finalist. That’s good D up the middle plus a corner.
Corbin Carrol and Walker are the big 2 they need in the lineup on offense and Corbin, Thomas and Perdomo are all stolen base threats. Shortstop Jordan Lawler is coming from the minors and he’s a 30/30 threat. (But he’s on the shelf for two months with an injury.)
Starting Pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly will be joined by Eduardo Rodriguez to make a fierce three on the mound if Rodriguez can ever get healthy.
And the Snakes won the Jordan Montgomery sweepstakes over the snake-bit Red Sox and signed him for a one year contract with incentives. The Red Sox really missed the boat on this guy. He’s a durable leftie with a great Playoff season behind him.
Any negatives for the Arizonans? The bullpen is very thin.
PADRES:
WILL FINISH: THIRD
The Pads had the number 3 payroll in baseball and finished second in attendance last year. At least you knew something was happening over there in Petco Park. Thing is, all that firepower at the plate (Bogaerts, Tatis, Machado, Soto) and on the mound (Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Hader) only got them an 82-80 record in 2023. They couldn’t afford to keep all those stars paid either, and had to trade Soto to the Yankees and watch Snell, Hader and others leave as free agents.
Bright spots? Fernando Tatis made the move from short to right field and played his butt off, winning the Gold Glove and racking up 59 extra base hits in a shortened season (steroid use got him suspended). Ha-Seong Kim won the Gold Glove at second and had 38 steals.
The Pads also made a good trade and got Dylan Cease from the White Sox. Cease had an uncharacteristically high ERA last year but he’s probably one of the top fifteen starters in the game all the same.
GIANTS:
WILL FINISH: FOURTH
The Giants have had serious problems scoring runs and really needed some offensive stars to attract paying customers. Trouble is, their ballpark is where doubles, triples and homers go to die. So you might as well go for singles and steals, right? Enter Korean wonder Jung Hoo Lee who can hit and run, even though he won’t match the 20 bombs he hit for his Korean team last year. A good move and he plays center.
The Giants also signed Matt Chapman to embody the Giant ideal of a good fielding, home run hitting .220 hitter for a season or three. You want more of that? Try Jorge Soler from Miami. He hits homers and then struts. The fans will love it.
(Until he strikes out the next five times he’s at bat.)
Their Big 2 starters are sinker baller Logan Webb and Alex Cobb...also a ground ball pitcher. They just became number 2 and 3 in the Giants rotation when San Fran procured Blake Snell from the free agent roster. (He signed cheap after trying for the end of the rainbow contract all off-season.) The best thing that happened to the Giant’s pitching is Bob Melvin getting hired as manager off his run with the Padres. Pitchers thrive under Bob Melvin...he’s just one of those guys who communicates.
HOT TIP: Keep an eye on Marco Luciano. He may not last as a shortstop but he has a big power bat.
ROCKIES:
WILL FINISH: FIFTH
The Rocks are predestined to finish last in the West. They spent $183 million for Kris Bryant. They have him for 5 more years.
The Rocks are looking forward to a talented outfield threesome in Gold Glove centerfielder Brenton Doyle, home run hitter Hunter Goodman in one corner and King of the Cannon Arm Nolan Jones. If these guys can hit, things may improve in Denver. Jones and Doyle are good base pilferers too.
It’s hard to contemplate the Rockies pitching staff. It must hurt to have the staff post a 5.91 ERA for Starters and 5.41 for Relievers. That’s the worst in baseball.
N.L. CENTRAL:
REDS:
WILL FINISH: somewhere between first and fifth
What a courageous prediction! Guilty. This is the hardest division to predict. All of the teams have problems, but you can make a case that any one of them could run the table. It depends mostly on who gets injured and who stays healthy. Will the St. Louis Cardinals’ pitching staff of aging arms hold up or will the young guns on the Reds turn the corner? Will the new hotshot manager of the Cubbies (Craig Counsel) make THAT much difference to the Wrigleys? Do you really count on Cody Bellinger keeping his stroke all year? The Pirates new Superman Oneil Cruz has some offensive support but the Pirates’ starters are iffy. At least until number one pick Paul Skenes arrives with his killer slider and 102 mph fastball. Someday the Pirates will amaze us and put it all together. Is this their year?
Even the Brewers, who get rid of their stars as fast as they can after it becomes obvious that they will be demanding more money, have a comfortable spot in the basement waiting for them. But even the Brewers are a possible winner. Two years ago the BrewCrew had Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader and Devin Williams pitching for them. My God what have they done? Only injured Williams is left.
So, since it might be their turn, I pick the Reds. They have a youthful starting rotation that underachieved big time last season. But guys like Andrew Abbott and Hunter Greene are entering their prime with huge upsides. I predict dominance similar to the old Cubs duo of Mark Pryor and Kerry Wood. Filthy heat and big breaking sliders.
Elly de la Cruz is a burner. He’s got speed, power and a hellacious throwing arm. He’s just got to mature and keep using his speed to make every single and base on ball turn into a double. Matt McClain (who could move to short from third with Elly moving over a notch) has power, average and can steal as well. If he takes another step forward, that would give the Reds the dynamic offensive duo they need.
The Reds are a little short on power for today’s game, but they are built to win if this turns into a new heyday of base stealing.
CHICAGO CUBS:
WILL FINISH: SECOND
They are spectacular up the middle with Ian Happ in center, Swanson at short and Hoerner at second...all Gold Glove winners.
They are a little light on the power but still have 5 players with over 20 homers and three base stealers, led by Nico Hoerner with 43.
Four good starters with Ace in waiting Justin Steele. Good closer in Adbert Alzolay.
Not a Playoff team but good enough to finish second in the Central.
PIRATES:
WILL FINISH: THIRD
I have no idea why I’m rating them this high. I think I just got tired of writing “Pirates” in the fifth place spot. See above comments on Oneil Cruz and Paul Skenes for some sort of justification.
CARDINALS:
WILL FINISH: FOURTH
Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are heroes in their mid-thirties. Nothing can stop entropy. The Cards may have the horses to take up the burden for their lineup but I don’t see Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman or Lars Nootbar coming close to putting together even one offensive season that the old guys used to do year in and year out. Maybe Walker some day.
THE DEFINITION OF WISHFUL THINKING: the Cards’ rotation of Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Steven Matz can give them 500 innings.
Something positive? The Cardinals had 6 Gold Glove Finalists in 2021. (they finished 2nd) They had 5 in 2022. (they finished 1st) In 2023 they had 1. And finished last. Thus proving that defense has little value in modern baseball. Ha!
BREWERS:
WILL FINISH: FIFTH
THEY HAD A WINDOW AND THEY BLEW IT.
N.L. EAST:
BRAVES:
WILL FINISH: FIRST
Yeah, I KNOW. Another FEARLESS PREDICTION. I’m trying to be wise like all the other prognosticators who have confidently placed the Atlanteans Numero Uno. It’s not easy being wise and fearless all at once.
Besides, the Braves are so loaded it’s a joke. They have the best offensive lineup in baseball. 5 guys hit over 30 homers last year and 3 hit over 40. Seven regulars had a plus .800 OPS! I mean, I know they play in a hitter’s park but come on! The Braves also have a top five rotation. (they traded a great prospect to Boston for Chris Sale and if Sale can keep his body wired together for one or two more seasons along side their two Aces Strider and Fried we’re talking the Number One rotation in the game.)
Looks like another 100 win season coming right up.
But the Braves have crumbled when playing their chief rivals in the Playoffs the last two years… and that team of Atlanta-sackers is of course, the…
PHILLIES:
WILL FINISH: SECOND
The Phils have a two-headed monster in starters Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Acknowledged Aces. That duo can carve up lineups. Also, the Phils have gotten in the habit of claiming a Wild Card spot in the Playoffs and staying up to speed with a tight schedule of pressure playoff games. Their hitters keep their timing. Their pitchers don’t have time to get rusty from lack of work.
Meanwhile the division champion Braves are waiting four or five days to start playing their big games and all they’ve been doing is being interviewed by mini-skirted reporters on the MLB Network. The Braves lose their edge.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Phils have a couple of studs in leftie swingers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Those guys are big game hunters in the post season. They also have a lineup full of hackers who might look over-matched for 3 games in a row and then break out with a 3-homer game like Nick Castellanos did in 2023. The Phillies strike out in huge bunches. But they also walk and hit bombs. They are baseball’s Natural Outcome Kings.
The Phillies are SO ready to win a World Series. I don’t think they can win day in day out all season, but the Braves better wake up for the Playoffs.
MARLINS:
WILL FINISH: THIRD
I commented last year on the Marlins using their lofty draft positions of recent years to build a pitching staff of young rifles while failing to renew their offense. Now the pitchers they collected are starting to fade or need too much salary or something and they have over-ripened on the vine while waiting for the lineup to score some runs.
So they trade for Luis Arraez to come win batting crowns. Trouble is, the Marlins gave up a possible future Cy Young winner in Pablo Lopez, now a Twin.
The overall problema in Miami is that clunker of a stadium the fish play in. “Loan Depot Park”. (There’s a colorful baseball name for you!) The Marlins draw the lowest crowds in the league, year after year.
Note: Everybody keeps expecting leftie hurler Jesus Luzardo to get it together and take over the league. Now is surely the time Jesus! Let’s Rock! I think it would be great to see a Peruvian win the Cy Young!
METS:
WILL FINISH: FOURTH
The Mets are still reeling from the debacle that was their 2023 season. They found new and embarrassing ways to lose.
I can’t explain it….the Mets just started kicking games in June until the whole season was a dud. Maybe it was losing Edwin Diaz the way they did...hurting himself while celebrating a victory in the World Baseball Classic.
Right now the Mets are trying to decide how to deal with the Rhys Hoskins issue. Rhys is the hardnosed Brewer (and ex-Phillie) infielder who has become their nemesis and human cattle prod as he slides hard into bases and mimes crybaby moves in the dugout when the poor Metskies stomp around the infield and complain to their ump-mommies.
Hey Mets! He was stretching the rules by oversliding...so stop whining! Hit him in the ass next time he comes up. No...they’d rather give Rhys three hits in a row and then throw a head high fastball eight feet BEHIND him! Somebody explain baseball unwritten rules to these guys. Hit ‘em in the butt...not in the head! Control yourselves! Watch Joe Kelly of the Dodgers police the opponents...find an Irish reliever to go to work!
NATIONALS:
WILL FINISH: FIFTH
...but not for long. The Nats have been quietly rebuilding through the draft. They’ll be moving up soon, (two years?), so the Eastern Division better keep hitting them while they’re down.
Most interesting questions about the National League.
We’ve got an epic competition coming up among super-teams Los Angeles, Atlanta and Philadelphia and great intra-division rivals Dodgers vs. San Diego, Arizona AND traditional enemies the San Francisco Giants. Philly-Atlanta is also looking pugnacious.
Will the God-like Dodgers prove that when it comes to money, Might makes Right? Or will some sneaky Pagans (like Arizona!) tear the cup from their lips ‘ere they have quaffed the Elixer of Victory?
Will the remarkable Atlanta Braves become one of the great teams of all time? And can they get past the Broad Street Bullies of Philadelphia?
I’ll be back next week with the American League story…
