MARCO’S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2022: QUICK PICKS NL
The Madness Continues:
It’s so much easier to make predictions after the teams have played ten games. I bet it’s even easier at the end of the season! But not even I can hold back the tide of premonition that long so here goes.
NL EAST: The AL EAST was tough to predict. Injuries are going to have a huge effect on the teams’ finish.
The NL is a piece of cake in comparison. You know going in that the Dodgers are better than everybody and are going to win a lot of games. Same as last year. Of course, the TV executives would be happy if Los Angeles and New York won every pennant every year and went on to an endless number of World Series matchups...maybe with an occasional interruption from the Boston Red Sox or Chicago Cubs to make it all look unrigged. As long as the action stays centered on the highest possible viewership.
Baseball has always been dominated by the big money teams but there’s enough slippage in there that we get a tantalizing surprise once in awhile, because, thank God, nobody has figured out how to precisely peg the cost of a player to his performance. So you get delightful anomalies like Brandon Crawford going career year for the Giants last season and Logan Webb turning into Whitey Ford before our grateful eyes. Salvador Perez struggles to his feet on his catcher-punished knees and hits the most homers ever hit by a major league catcher (48). Something weird and wonderful is always happening in baseball. And that’s why big money teams need to watch their asses.
1/ ATLANTA BRAVES...I like ‘em. They have the depth and the seasoning to defend their run of divisional first place finishes. I know all the sentimental slush about Freddie Freeman is the focus. “How could they cut him loose after he gave HIS VERY SOUL to the Bravos!” Freeman cashed in after a couple of great seasons and leaves the Georgians at the very height of success. Freeman has already played 12 seasons. He’ll turn 33 this season. The Dodgers will get the dregs of his career. Do you think the Braves want to have a dreadful nostalgia-fest overpaying Frederick for a Miggy Cabrera type circus? And Freeman knows this is his last dip into the piggy bank to set himself up for a life beyond baseball. Way it goes. Atlanta went out and got a comparable player (Matt Olson) who is younger and cheaper even with two additional years on his contract. He’s a Georgia favorite son as well.
The Braves have the offense, especially with Ozuna, Duvall and Acuna coming back. Their infield is really strong third to first...Riley, Swanson, Albies, Olson.
Pitching depth is good even with no stand-out Number One. The bullpen won them a ring last year. The Braves are ready.
2/NEW YORK METS...be still my heart picking these scrapdoodles to finish this high, but I can’t help it if the other teams in this division besides Atlanta are hopelessly lacking. The Mets are the very picture of a random team. You have a potential team leader (Lindor) who flibbered the gibbet in the worst way and wound up bad-mouthing the fans as the source of his ineffectiveness. They had to let Javier Baez go so Francisco, who was one of my favorite players, wouldn’t have a partner in whine to insult the public as he celebrated his $341 million dollar contract.
Then there’s the testosterone twins Robbie Cano and Starling Marte
(if you want me to type those names in bold, I’m sorry) comparing their prescriptions as they reminisce how they successfully bumped up their salaries into the stratosphere with creative chemistry.
The dynamic pitching duo of Scherzer and deGrom were ready to restore greatness to the Metskies just as soon as they got their new ligaments rubberized and vacuumed out their thoracic cavities.
Owner Steve Cohen happily spent the big money on all these guys because he wants to win. Good for him. But Scrooge McDuck could have organized a better team atmosphere.
You know who could make that team come together? The Polar Bear...first sacker Pete Alonso. He’s the most productive member of the offense and he’s good with the fans, good in the clubhouse and he does it all with 8 regulars in the lineup making as much or more money. Some of them are making two or three times more. He’ll help the Mets stumble into the wild card somehow, where maybe a resurrected Scherzer can win them something.
3/PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES...a boutique pick for a pennant. I don’t know what that means but it sounds cool, you know? I think I mean that this iteration of the Phillies have some flash and they suck you in with the possibility of being a winner when they really aren’t and may never be. Yeah I know. Bryce Harper is such a “passionate” player and his hat comes off when he runs...like Willie’s used to! He’s so strong...like Mickey was! I’m sorry but Bryce can’t carry this team all by himself.
Castellanos and Schwarber, welcome to Phillie! But we are only allowed one DH and both of you are *gladiators* in the outfield. Realmuto and Hoskins and old timers Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius are going to have to be productive and they just haven’t got many arrows left in their quivers.
The Phillies looked like they were moving into contention a couple of years ago but then they spit the bit and didn’t complete the mission. Now they have a few good pitchers (Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola) but not enough bullpen and an aging roster. If those two starters have good years, they get some bullpen help and the old guys don’t go lame and Harper, Castellanos and Schwarber all go crazy...the Phillies might be Franklins. If not? Bye Bye Benjamins.
(*gladiators*...this nickname bestowed in honor of the original “gladiator” Pete Browning...a famous nineteenth century batting champion who was also notorious for his “battles” with fly balls.
Deaf and illiterate, the six-foot, 180-pound Browning was eccentric as well. He refused to slide; played defense standing on one leg to prevent anyone running into him; stared into the sun to improve his “lamps” (eyes); treasured his “active” bats because of the hits they still contained; was constantly on the prowl for the next, new “magical” stick with hits in it; reportedly favored bats that were 37 inches in length and 48 ounces in weight; maintained a warehouse of “retired” bats in his home — all of them named, many after Biblical figures; kept his batting statistics on his shirt cuffs; and when traveling over the circuit, frequently alighted from trains and introduced himself as the champion batter of the American Association.)
4/MIAMI MARLINS...oh boy oh boy oh boy. Derek Jeter and his little elvin helpers have really screwed up this team. Jeter walked away after insuring and bequeathing another cycle of rebuilding upon his former possession. The Marlins have stuffed their roster with great young pitchers. Dozens of them it seems like. And they are all coming into their productive years and find themselves saddled with ...no OFFENSE!! Idiot owners have mis-planned this whole deal.
The Chicago Cubs rebuilt a decade ago by building the team with regulars and then going out and then buying the pitchers to be ready to win when the offense was there. The Marlins have got these talented pitchers who are learning to lose because the team is at the bottom of baseball in runs scored, homers,etc. Now the Miami Mistakes have to wait around for the team to develop some steady hitting. This is the team that used to have Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton in their lineup all at one time...and let them go!
Poor Don Mattingly. He deserves better. I fully expect him to be fired and Miami to trade all their great young arms for a new crop of Miami wannabes. Another chapter in the book of Miami Marlin ineptitude.
5/WASHINGTON NATIONALS...like the song says...”Beat the drum slowly and play the pipes lowly and play the Dead March as you carry me along...” Observe, everyone, the demise of yet another once thriving franchise. A moment in the sun in 2019 and now...the Deluge!
One of baseball’s brightest stars, Juan Soto, is about to have the same fate befall him as Ernie Banks, Mike Trout and other worthy superstars of the game...a career sucked dry by the desert of a franchise that mistimed their rebuild. Now the Nats have nobody to deal. Not much farm system. A barren pitching staff with nobody worth trading now that Strasburg is permanently damaged. (Maybe Josiah Gray would be a chip if he works on his control.)
Maybe Soto can last until what should be a very rich free agency. Maybe he will play it safe and accept a long term contract from Washington and try to last out the losing. One way or another, it’s too bad that baseball keeps forsaking its most appealing stars and hiding them in back-water losing ball clubs.
And don’t expect miraculous batting feats from Soto for awhile... there ain’t no protection for Juan in the current lineup so why pitch to him?
NL CENTRAL:
1/ST. LOUIS CARDINALS and 2/MILWAUKEE BREWERS...this is a close call between the St. Looie-Looies and the Milwaukee Brewskies. The Brews certainly have a championship pitching staff and own the three top pitchers in the division in Corbin Burnes (WHIP 0.94) Brandon Woodruff (0.96) and Freddie Peralta (0.97). That can be lethal in a short playoff series if those guys stay healthy this season. They also have Josh Hader (WHIP 0.84/almost 16 K’s per 9 innings) and Devin Williams (WHIP 1.19/almost 15 K’s per 9) in the bullpen plus many other Major Dudes. I say the Brews have the best staff in baseball...better than the Dodgers, better than the White Sox and better than the Mets even if deGrom hadn’t gotten hurt.
Only St. Louis closer Giovanny Gallegos (WHIP 0.85) would make the top end of the Brewers bullpen. No St. Louis starter would make the Milwaukee rotation unless Jack Flaherty is healthy in which case you might want him over Adrian Houser or Eric Lauer.
So what am I thinking by picking the Cards to take the Central?
Well, while the Brewers own the mound in a Big, Big way, they are woefully lacking in farm system prospects and money. (The Cardinals have oodles of cash and guys like 2B/3B Nolan Gorman in the minors...7 home runs in 7 games this week in Memphis)
The Wisconsin-ites (?) are depending on an unlikely rebound from Christian Yelich after two nightmare seasons. Yelich has a bad back and that comes and goes. He’s had a few other injuries as well. Playing baseball doesn’t exactly help. He’s probably going to be better this season but will he be MVP-level better like he was? Very very doubtful. But he’s the offense, along with … Rowdy Tellez?
The Brewers have a very good infield now that they traded for Willy Adames to play short. He and Kolton Wong are GG caliber at the keystone and Luis Urias surprises at third. First base...Rowdy Tellez?
Of course the St. Louis Cardinals are not exactly hurting defensively with an infield of Nolan Arenado at third, Paul Goldschmidt at first, Tommy Edman at second and either Edmundo Sosa or Paul DeJong at short. The first three all won Gold Gloves. Two of the Cardinal’s outfielders won Gold Gloves also...Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader. Right fielder Dylan Carlson finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. So with catcher Yadier Molina (many Gold Glove years) the whole team can field like fiends. (And five total Gold Gloves I believe is the new all-time record for one team in one year.)
So I list these two teams together. Worthy competitors if it plays out like I think it will in the Central. Two great defensive teams...one with superior pitching and the other with superior offense. As Yogi used to say, “Good pitching will beat good hitting every time….and vice versa!”
I pick St. Louis to finish first because I guess you can say I drink the sentimental Kool Aide that the Cardinals are serving up. Isn’t it sweet that Molina and Wainwright have decided to play one more year with each other and then retire? Two old War Ponies now joining up with Albert Pujols in his Last Grand Tour around the league? It’s just like a storybook or something!
A BIG HOWEVER… if the Brewers finish first in the Central regular season and play in a wild card first round in the Playoffs, the Wisconsin-ians (?) get to play 3 straight home games in the wild card match with their triple headed starting pitcher monster rotation of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta! Them are Long Odds for the Louie-Louies and anybody else who plays Milwaukee!
3/ CHICAGO CUBS...and now for the NL Central Also-Rans. The Cubs have definitively and officially gone in the tank for 2022 and probably beyond. They have dispensed with Rizzo, Baez and Bryant. So no more of those pesky hitters. They’ve dumped their name pitchers as well because who needs pitching? Who’d they keep? Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks who aren’t world beaters but are true competitors. For regulars they have Ian Happ, Wilson “Contrary” Contreras, Patrick Wisdom and Jason Heyward. Jason is going into his eighth and final year of an 8 year death spiral contract. His OPS in 2021? .627. His average was .214 and at 34 he’s lost his range in the outfield. It is what it is.
And yet the Cubbies are not without hope for the future. They picked up some interesting young prospects from their various Tank-Trades.
There best move may have been the purchase of Seiya Suzuki from Japan. Suzuki is a real player. Dominated in the Japanese Leagues as a .300+ hitter with power and speed. He’s played outfield, 3B and shortstop and at 27 he’s in his prime as a ballplayer. He has a great eye at the plate and takes walks. OPS of 1.000 + every year. Should make a big difference for the Cubs. Someone to build around.
I like Jud Hoyer as the GM and David Ross as a paternalistic player’s manager. I don’t think the Cubs will disgrace themselves and I have a feeling they will be back soon.
4/CINCINNATI REDS...are also doing a Tank Job, but they aren’t being as up front about it as the Cubs. They’ve left their die hard fans in a state of horror as they appeared to be making a big push a couple of years ago and then just...stopped. They traded Gold Glove catcher Tucker Barnhart and their great closer Raisel Iglesias. Nick Castellanos...Adios!
The Reds are going into this season with Joey Votto, Jesse Winker and Rookie 2B Jonathon India leading the offense. They still have Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray in the rotation and new wunderkind Hunter Green who looks like Doc Gooden or a friendlier Bob Gibson throwing 100 mph consistently.
I am disappointed. I guess the Reds are going to be satisfied to phone in a .500 record.
5/PITTSBURGH PIRATES...they’ve become a farm team for the rest of baseball. Claim the best draft choices year after year as they finish last. Trade anybody that qualifies for an arbitrated higher salary. It’s an insult to the memory of a once proud franchise. What to do? See the section on Oakland in the Quick Picks AL blog sent out two weeks ago. Meanwhile look at this all-time lineup to remember the heritage of the Buccos. Raise the Jolly Roger Maties!
C: Jason Kendall
1B: Willie Stargell
2B: Bill Mazeroski
3B: Pie Traynor
SS: Honus Wagner
INF: Arky Vaughn
OF: Roberto Clemente
OF: Paul Waner
OF: Dave Parker
OF: Max Carey
OF: Fred Clarke
DH: Ralph Kiner
P: Babe Adams, Jesse Tannehill, Wilber Cooper, Steve Blass, Vern Law, Harvey Haddix, Elroy Face, Doug Drabek, Kent Tekulve
NL WEST:
1/LOS ANGELES DODGERS...at last! The glamorous NL West! Home of the famous Los Angeles Show Ponies...slick and glossy pride of the West Coast! A team of destiny! A team of Stars! A team that finished second to the San Francisco Giants last season! (Oooops. Wait a minute….something wrong with this bullhorn.) How about those Rams, Huh?
Yep, the Deadly D’s had a great team last year and still managed to lose the division for the first time in ten years. Blame it on Trevor Bauer I guess, and move on. Or better yet...congratulate the talented and stubborn San Francisco Giants and be glad they are in the division with L.A. so we have a contest.
Also be glad that the Dodgers have a couple of guys like the Yard Gnomes... Justin Turner and Mike Muncy... and versatile clutch hitter Chris Taylor. True Grit players like that put a little beard fuzz on those shiny pony-boys who make the glossy cover of Dodgertown Confidential. You know, pretty boys like Mookie, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Kershaw and Bellinger. (And yes, I know that men like Mookie and Trea and Clayton are equally gritty. Their only fault is being glamorous and inviting my opportunistic sarcasm.)
And I can’t blame the players for enjoying the candy store that is the Dodger roster. Who doesn’t enjoy winning and playing on a club loaded with talent? I’m just glad there is still competition in baseball and teams like Washington and Atlanta get a turn at the top now and again.
I really don’t see how the Dodgers could possibly finish out of the money this year. Even if we get another surprising anomaly like the resurrection of the Giants, L.A. can’t help but at least win a wild card spot. They are so deep and they have more great young players (catcher Diego Cartaya, Of Andy Pages) waiting to move up to the Big Club.
But that potential lineup of Betts, Freeman, Turner, Turner, Muncy, Taylor, Will Smith, Lux and Bellinger/Rios/Matt Beaty at DH? Fuh-git A-bou-dit!
And the pitchers! You think Kershaw is close to the End? 7 perfect innings in an April start! Maybe not! Buehler, Urias, Heany, Gonsolin also in the rotation? Bullpen bristling with arms as usual.
The Yankees should take a good look at what Big Money can buy . Even if you still believe in thrift, like L.A.’s President of Operations and ex-Tampa Bay Rays exec. Andrew Friedman.
Because the Dodgers are Locked and Loaded.
2/SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS...hats off to you, Gigazmos. You came out of the Great Blue Bay and throttled the League with your winning ways. I had given up on you for last year. Won’t make that mistake again.
Of course you did lose Buster Posey to retirement and he had a big year for you. And Brandon Crawford can’t have ANOTHER career year, can he? Will the League figure out how to hit that sinker Logan Webb throws? And isn’t that last year’s Ace Kevin Gausman pitching for Toronto in 2022? Can you really have 12 guys over 30 on your Opening Day roster?
So...questions for the season ahead. But I like the attitude on this team. Bunch of Old Pros who won’t quit. They took the Dodgers to the very end last year. I say a wild card at the least.
3/SAN DIEGO PADRES...I picked them to win the N.L. last year. I was wrong, wasn’t I? Tatis got hurt which was one thing that screwed them up. And the pitching went south, surprisingly, except for Joe Musgrove. What was the matter with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell? Gopher balls and walks, specifically. Pitching questions make evaluating this team really dicey.
The hitters are formidable when Fernando Tatis Jr. is in the lineup but he hurt himself on a motor bike (are you listening Madison Bumgarner?) which I’m sure pleased management to no end. Especially when Tatis had this to say to a question about his bike wreck: “Which one?” Team first, huh Fernando? No wonder Manny Machado has to kick your ass so often. Anyway, the Pads are a different team when Tatis is healthy. He is a huge presence.
Speaking of team chemistry, San Diego seemed to lose focus during the injury-tainted 2021 season and it didn’t help that Eric Hosmer asked for a trade. Soured the atmosphere a little bit. I understand why Hosmer hates that ballpark though. Petco is the exact wrong fit for him. Knocks 100+ points off his slugging because he’s a line drive hitter.
Positives? CJ Abrams looks like a future star as he fills in for Tatis during the injury. He’ll stay in the infield when Fernando gets back.
And the new manager Bob Melvin is just the right choice to get the Padres back on point.
4/COLORADO ROCKIES...I wish some baseball science nerd would explain to me why the Rockies can’t figure out how to win in the major leagues. If Coors Field is that extreme an environment that they can’t even cash in on the offensive advantage in their own park...maybe they should put the whole team in a humidifier instead of just the baseballs.
Pitchers can’t throw a lot of breaking balls because they don’t break in the thin air. Got it. So recruit power fastball pitchers with great control (if they exist) or else change-up/sinker ball specialists who fool the hitters with change of speed. I mean, what other choice do you have if you’re the pitching coach? They can’t entice any free agent pitchers to come to Colorado because who wants to go get their brains beat in? So you have to build the farm system. Bring up some knuckle ball pitchers. Try Kent Tekulve submarine pitchers. Eephus balls! Try something! Go with a big staff of mixed talents...one type pitching in Coors and save the traditional pitchers for the road games. Get creative!
And for offense, go Big! Colorado has actually won in the past with three or four guys like Andres Gallaraga, Dante Bichette and Vinnie Castillo in the lineup...not Hall of Famers...just big guys who took advantage of the conditions in that ballpark!
Currently the Rockheads have a bunch of hitters with low averages and medium power and a bunch of pitchers with ERAs of over 5. Not a winning formula.
Right now the Rockies franchise lies like a bludgeoned trout rotting in the sun.
5/ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS...it gets painful at this end of the NL West projections, fans. What do you get if you’re a Diamondbacks fan? Ketel Marte (their ONLY hitter with a plus .800 OPS) and the husk of a once great Madison Bumgarner? Watching this team is like watching the wreck of the Hindenburg in slow motion. You want to yell “Jump! Jump!” but you know the passengers on the film can’t even hear you.
Just one example of the fruitlessness of the Arizona genius- front office: they spent a whole lot of money on free agent Mark Melancon to be their CLOSER! Mark is great, but how many leads do you think they expect to have with their lineup? Why not spend that money on about six young prospects and start their rebuild? Are they really pretending that they have a chance?
SUMMING UP: The National League has 8 decent teams with a real chance at a Playoff spot...L.A., San Fran, San Diego, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Atlanta, New York Mets and Philadelphia. The rest are shark chum.
The AL is deeper. Tampa Bay, Toronto, New York Yanks, Boston, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Houston, Seattle, and the Los Angeles Angels all have a shot.
MY NL PICKS:
NL EAST: ATLANTA
NL CENTRAL: ST. LOUIS
NL WEST: LOS ANGELES DODGERS
1ST WILD CARD: MILWAUKEE
2ND WILD CARD: SAN FRANCISCO
3RD WILD CARD: NEW YORK
FIRST ROUND WILD CARD WINNERS:
ST. LOUIS OVER 3RD WILD CARD NEW YORK
2ND WILD CARD SAN FRANCISCO OVER 1ST WILD CARD MILWAUKEE.
DIVISION PLAYOFF WINNERS:
LOS ANGELES OVER ST. LOUIS
ATLANTA OVER SAN FRANCISCO
NL PENNANT WINNER:
LOS ANGELES OVER ATLANTA
AL PICKS:
AL EAST: TAMPA BAY
AL CENTRAL: CHICAGO
AL WEST: HOUSTON
1ST WILD CARD: TORONTO
2ND WILD CARD: BOSTON
3RD WILD CARD: LOS ANGELES ANGELS
FIRST ROUND WILD CARD WINNERS:
HOUSTON OVER 3RD WILD CARD LOS ANGELES ANGELS
1ST WILD CARD TORONTO OVER 2ND WILD CARD BOSTON
DIVISION PLAYOFF WINNERS:
HOUSTON OVER TAMPA BAY
TORONTO OVER CHICAGO
AL PENNANT WINNER:
HOUSTON OVER TORONTO
WORLD SERIES WINNER:
LOS ANGELES OVER HOUSTON
Many Happy Baseball Returns!
