MARCO’S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2021: POWER TWOS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART ONE: The Power Twos observed and defended
PART TWO: The National League contenders in 2021
and coming up next edition...
PART THREE: The American League contenders in 2021 (next week)
PART ONE:
Well I hope you’re satisfied.
If you’re a Padres fan you’re undoubtedly satisfied. Your team loaded up and is going for broke. Not in their greenest dreams do the Padres have a chance to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers money-wise. Not a chance. The Dodgers make more money just with their TV deal than the Pods do with everything. “Don’t care”, say Pods...”gonna get me some starting pitchers and kick some ass.”
“No problem” says Dodger fan as he belches after his feast of World Series Bounty. “We’ll just sit here until all the ruckus is over and sign the best free agent pitcher... Trevor Bauer... to a tidy 3-year contract. We already have Kershaw and young guns like Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and Dustin May. Oh yeah...we also have David Price . We might as well add ‘Tweetin’ Trevor and go 7 deep in our rotation. Somebody might get a blister.”
St. Louis... you say you’re tired of watching other teams pitch around good old Paul Goldschmidt? Trade some minor leaguers for Nolan Arenado, put him on third where he’s a Gold Glover and let him rise to the occasion of a pennant race and help you score runs. Cardinal fans ...Dare to Dream!
Toronto Blue Jays...the virus-Honchos won’t let American baseball teams cross the sacred borders of Canada to play you. So what the hell...stay in Dunedin, Florida. It’s 75 degrees and most of your good players are from the Caribbean anyway. So pick up George Springer and Marcus Semien and improve your up-the-middle defense while bringing extra power to your lineup. Stick ‘em on the field with Lourdes, Teoscar, Dante, Cavan and Vlad and watch ‘em rake. (And watch the Yankees and the Rays start watching over their shoulders.)
Even Mets fans have to be semi-satisfied. The Mets haven’t been able to get out of their own way since 1986. In two World Series appearances since the Red Sox did the el foldo on their behalf they’ve won Nada. But finally...a mega-monied owner type individual has appeared like an avenging angel and suddenly you have one of the top five shortstops (and top two smilers) in the game. With Francisco Lindor you’ve all of a sudden got a deep hitting lineup and with Frankie and catcher James McCann there’s a huge improvement in one of your weakest areas...defense.
What have all these off-season moves shown us? What is a common thread? Well it’s cold and there’s no water to make the coffee (Storm of the Century and yadda-yadda- yadda) so I have some time on my hands and a computer. What have I discovered?
Nothing that hasn’t been baseball dogma for a century. If you go back through the pages and pages of the best teams in history….the big winners...you’ll find that they all have certain inalienable characteristics: For the most part they all share these attributes. This is still what teams are trying to build:
2 power hitters in the middle of the lineup...MVP type vote-getters
2 starting pitcher Aces
2 dependable relief men coming out of the pen
...and 4 good defenders up the middle (catcher, short, second and center field), at least 2 of whom are Gold Glove candidates.
That’s the blueprint for winning a pennant. I call it Power Twos. You can use this guideline to predict the races (coming up). Degrees of superiority are another argument. Some teams will have even more strength in some of these areas and be able to compensate for a weakness in one of the other areas.. But a real deficiency? You don’t win pennants.
A quick justification:
With the exception of the relief pitchers these “rules” have been in effect since Babe Ruth invented home runs in 1920. (Before that, teams consisted of spitball pitchers and nine guys who could bunt.) Winning teams had one superstar pitcher who pitched every game almost.
Remember the 1905 World Series? (Who doesn’t?) Christy Mathewson pitched three complete game shutouts in 6 days to lead the Giants over the Athletics 4 games to 1. Christy always said (in his book, Pitching in a Pinch) that he held back unless one of the really dangerous hitters was up. Of course there were only about 4 guys in the whole league who could put a hurt on the ball back then. Ruth and the lively ball changed that. The game kept evolving until every hitter in the lineup could take you deep if you laid it in there. Pitchers had to go all out every pitch and they needed relief help to close out games. And they needed several other starters to give them 3 or 4 days to recover between starts.
2 power hitters batting in the middle is still the standard approach to lineup making. Ruth/Gehrig, Foxx/Simmons, Mantle/Maris, Aaron/Mathews, Mays/McCovey etc.
Why does the number two figure into it so much? One slugger is not enough for a lineup. Unless you’ve got the 1967 Carl Yastrzemski who just couldn’t be stopped, one slugger will get pitched around. You need Manny Ramirez batting right after David Ortiz to wreck opposing pitching staffs.
Choose your poison...you have to pitch to one of them.
A top team needs two Aces because your one Ace can’t start every game. In a seven game series Bob Gibson would win 2 or 3 complete games but still need Nelson Briles or Curt Simmons or somebody to win one or two more. But if you can find two horses like Koufax/Drysdale, Pedro Martinez/Curt Schilling, Schilling/Randy Johnson, Mike Scott/Nolan Ryan...you can easily win 4 of every 7 you play, and that My Son, gets you into the Playoffs.
The Power Two is the standard because it’s so damn hard to recruit and sign and hold onto more stars than that on most ball teams. Every once in awhile a team will load up with an Orlando Cepeda to go with Willie and Willie, or even better, a three headed pitching monster like Maddux/Glavine/ Smoltz (Braves) or Palmer/McNally/Cuellar (Orioles)...that’s the Mother Lode.
Likewise your bullpen closer can’t pitch in every game. And unless you have another shut-down arm out there, you’re vulnerable.
The old adage about being defensively strong up the middle is gospel. Most batted balls hit fair go to the shortstop, the second baseman or the centerfielder. And every pitch comes to the catcher. These will always be the most important defensive players on a team. What separates the really strong winning teams is the relative quality of those players. Carlos Correa is a really good shortstop, but Ozzie Smith was a phenomenal shortstop. Whitey Herzog used to credit Ozzie with saving a hundred runs a year. If you have George Springer in centerfield you’re lucky. He’s terrific. But if you have Willie Mays? I’m not even considering offense here...just their defensive value. Catchers? Tom House once said that any average hitting catcher who is a plus defender is almost automatically the MVP of any team. A good catcher is just that important.
I give the defense more credit in the makeup of a championship club than most do. I think good defense is hard to quantify but if you have plus defenders at several positions who are taking away hits...say two Gold Glovers taking away 6 hits a week each and another two pretty good players taking away 3 more a week and not making many errors, then your team just gave up 18 less hits that week. That can have an astounding effect on a team’s chances of winning. I know that’s a simplistic way of looking at it but doesn’t it make sense?
Modern teams? How about a couple of recent World Series champs?
The 2017 Astros had a deep lineup with the big bats in the middle being Altuve and Correa. But they had a lot of help from Bregman, Springer and Gurriel. Their aces were Dallas Keuchel and a late addition Justin Verlander. The rest of the starters held their own but were hardly scaring anyone. The bullpen was merely average, with Brian Giles and Chris Devensky leading the way. Likewise, the middle defense was just so-so. Altuve and Correa were pretty good but not the top men in the league. Springer was a good defensive player in center but they often moved him to right in the late innings and let speedy Jake Marisnik play center field. No Gold Gloves for either.
Brian McCann was the starting catcher in most games and he is, was and always will be a Man. Did you ever see him block the plate that time when he was with the Braves and Carlos Gomez of the Brewers hit a bomb and watched the ball lovingly as it cleared the fence, then showboated around the bases talking trash? When Gomez got fifteen feet from the plate there was McCann standing on the baseline giving him Hell. Outstanding move Brian! Gomez was always asking for it. But no, McCann isn’t a Gold Glove candidate either.
So does that blow my Power of Two theory to smithereens? Well no, because the Astros compensated for their ordinary middle D and bullpen. They had three Gold Glovers on that team: Altuve, Josh Reddick and Dallas Keuchel have all won, just not in 2017. And Springer, Bregman, Correa and Gurriel were all very good fielders. Those 2017 Astros also had a lot of hitting in that line-up.* (*I’ll comment on how they “maximized” their good hitting a little later) Enough to finesse their unremarkable relief core and middle.
2018 Red Sox: the top hitting club in the AL that year had Betts and J.D. Martinez both scalding the baseball. Benintendi and Bogaerts were also solid hitters. Their Aces were Chris Sale ( arm problems) and David Price (also arm weary in mid-season). Up the middle was average with Bogaerts at short and second base by committee after Pedroia went down. They had Gold Glove quality with their catcher platoon of Christian Vasquez and Sandy Leon and especially in center field where Jackie Bradley Jr. is still one of the very best. Their once reliable closer Craig Kimbrel got crazy wild and lost some games. Luckily their swingman Nathan Eovaldi proved to be a valuable horse out of the bullpen and probably saved them with a heroic 7 inning effort in the series against the Dodgers. So a slight weakness in the bullpen and some injuries in the starting rotation had to be neutralized by classic up the middle defensive stars and truly awesome hitting.
I’ve gone through most of the clubs who won and applied the Power of 2 formula. In every case, the ones who had weakness in one of the four areas always had more than the minimum prescribed power in at least one other area that compensated. Some of the wierder ones: 1959 White Sox: Called the go-go Sox because of base stealer Luis Aparicio et al, the Sox had no sluggers at all in their line-up until the last month of the season when they traded for Ted Kluszewski. Their best hitter was MVP second sacker Nelson Fox who hit .306 with 2 homers. They had two aces in Early Wynn and Bob Shaw with leftie Billy Pierce assisting. Turk Lown set up for Jerry Staley in relief...those two each appeared in over 60 games.
The ‘59 team beat the Yankees that year with speed and defense. Luis Aparicio reintroduced the excitement of the stolen base into baseball that had gotten soggy in the homer happy ‘50s. He had 56 that year. And the defense had Aparicio and Fox at the keystone and Sherm Lollar catching...all won gold gloves. Centerfielder Jim Landis didn’t win one that year, but he was a 4-time winner in his career. That’s a pretty good up-the-middle defense.
1960 Pirates: How did they beat the Milwaukee Braves? The Braves were coming off two pennants and a tie in the three years previous and had Aaron (40 homers/126 ribs) Mathews (39/124) and Adcock (25/91 in 138 games) in the middle of the order with Spahn and Burdette starting and Bob Buhl a strong number 3. They had a Gold Glove catcher in Del Crandall and strong defenders in Aaron, Bruton in center and Johnny Logan at short. They had a nondescript but average (for the era) bullpen.
The Buccos had the batting champ, shortstop Dick Groat at .325 with 2 homers. They had Roberto Clemente with .314/16 home runs/ 94 ribbies and they had Dick (Dr. Stoneglove) Stuart with 23 dingers. Fairly modest firepower. The starters Vern Law and Bob Friend were not overpowering. What they had was the best closer in baseball at that time, Elroy Face, coming out of the pen with his forkball. And they had three Gold Glove winners in Clemente (though not that year), Bill Virdon in center (right behind Willie Mays) and second sacker Bill Mazeroski. They also had the 1-2 MVP vote getters in Dick Groat and third baseman Don Hoak, the ex-Marine. And they won 95 games. Up by 7 over the Bravos.
The Pirates had a whole lot of blow outs and won resoundingly at Forbes Field. They had many comeback wins. And they had strong character with leaders like Groat, Maz, Hoak and manager Danny Murtaugh. The Pirates just snuck up on everybody. And they really snuck up on the Yankees in the series that year, getting pounded 16-3, 10-0 and 12-0 in their three losses but somehow beating the Yanks in the other 4 games capped by that miraculous game 7 which will live in history as the game where Nobody Struck Out!
So what about The Big Red Machine of the ‘70s? Do they fit the Power Two paradigm? NO!...they are an outlier. They never had dominating starting pitching. The Reds had Gary Nolan for awhile and then Don Gullett. Later on they stole Tom Seaver from the Mets. (O Cursed Be The Day!) But lack of quality starters kept them from being even more dominating in their ‘70s heyday. They never had one of the elite relief closers either.
But with power hitters like Bench, Perez, Foster and Morgan and on-base guys like Morgan and Rose and speed guys like Morgan, Concepcion, Geronimo and Griffey, the Reds were a nightmare lineup to get through 3 or 4 times a game. And defense? The Reds swept the skill positions Gold Gloves four years in a row with Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Davey Concepcion and Cesar Geronimo.
Who needs pitching?
So now I’m fairly confident that I can effectively guage a team’s strength by a quick look at the Power Twos. I’ll give them one star for each player who fulfills one of the requisite goals. A superstar may occasionally rate an augmented score of something like a star and a half or a Ruthian two star rating. Half star if the player half fulfills the criteria. And stars or half stars (or negative stars!) for other players on the team who are not one of the two essential building block players but who either mitigate the lack of role fulfillment or reduce it through excessive weakness.
Sorry if that sounds overly complicated. Let’s just do it.
Oh yeah...I’m not going to take the time to rate the non-contenders right now because I don’t want to wallow through all that mediocrity. Most of them plan on losing anyway. (Draft choices you know!)
PART TWO:
NL EAST:
Atlanta Braves:
Bats: they have actually three middle of the order batters of MVP caliber. Freeman (won MVP), Acuna and Ozuna. The rest of their lineup is strong as well. They get 3 ½ stars.
Starters: No aces unless Mike Soroca comes back soon with a healed Achilles. But you can make up a pretty good rotation with Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly...none of whom can be considered Ace level yet but all of whom have pitched very well recently. 1 ½ stars.
Bullpen: their closer appears to be Chris Martin who has 6 lifetime career saves. Will Smith lost the bite on his slider and gave up gopher balls. A.J. Minter pitched great and is on the way up. Until things are settled… 0 stars.
Middle D: Christian Pache is a rookie but already one of the major’s best outfielders. He’ll be winning Gold Gloves. Dansby Swanson is a steady defender at short, but not Gold Glove steady. Ozzie Albeis likewise. Travis D’Arnaud is top ten in the league at catcher. Other positions have Gold Glove caliber at first base with Freeman and right field with Acuna. Prospect Drew Waters may be as good an outfielder as Pache ...if he makes the team. 2 1/2 stars
Total: 7 1/2 stars...just short of a truly dominating team.
Washington Nationals:
Bats: Juan Soto had the most impressive offensive line in baseball last season (.351/13/37/OPS 1.185) but only got into 47 games (after contracting COVID and with nobody worthy hitting behind him!) So even if you can’t assume he’ll continue to hit like that, you have to pay attention. Hey, he’s 22 and has NO holes in his swing. He’s worth a star and a half if any hitter is. His at bats are the most fun to watch in all baseball.
Trea Turner was the only other real plus offensive player on the Nats. The shortstop batted .335 with 12 dings and a .982 OPS. Also 12 stolen bases. This year the Nats pick up Josh Bell from the Pirates and Kyle Schwarber from the Cubs. Bell had a great first half in 2019 then collapsed all the way through 2020. He can hurt you when he’s right, though. Schwarber can’t hit lefties at all. The 2019 version of Bell would be worth a star. He’s an improvement on the nothing they had last year. 2 stars
Starters: Max Scherzer is starting to show his age but I think he’s got another strong season in him. I like the way he pitches with guts. Strasburg?...can’t believe he got old so fast but there it is. Probably pie in the sky to think he’ll make it through a season uninjured. But the Nats have Patrick Corbin coming back and new arrival John Lester. Give ‘em 2 1/2 stars.
Bullpen: Nobody else pitched that well last year and the Nats are historically bad at building a solid bullpen. They let Sean Doolittle go. But then...revelation! The Nats ponied up for Brad Hand, the free agent who was formerly the Cleveland closer. A potential savior. 1 star.
Middle D: Robles in center and Turner at short are Gold Glove types. Their second sackers (Starlin Castro or Luis Garcia) and catcher (Yan Gomes) are not. 2 stars.
Total: 7 1/2 stars...Scherzer, Strasburg and Josh Bell...how good are they going to be? That will tell the tale.
New York Mets:
Bats: Last year their Big Two were Michael Conforto and Dominic Smith with strong assists from Pete Alonso (16 homers/35 rbis) and Jeff McNeil (.311) Cano helped a lot too until you found out the reason why. This year subtract Cano and add Francisco Lindor and catcher James McCann. You’re looking at a 3 ½ star offense.
Starters: DeGrom is close to being the best in baseball. They missed out on Bauer and the other super stud free agent pitchers but got Carlos Carrasco in the Lindor deal and Taijuan Walker. They still have Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard should make it back by mid season so they have a potentially strong rotation. 2 ½ stars.
Bullpen: Very shaky. Edwin Diaz was a disaster in 2019 but came back a little as closer in 2020. Trevor May is a full star backup. Everybody else is throw it and pray. 1 ½ stars.
Middle D: A joke until they got Lindor at short. He’s the real deal but he’ll be lonely out there with outfielder Jeff McNeil playing second and almost the whole defense featuring players out of position. Nimmo in center? First baseman Dominic Smith in left? Conforto in right? Well, they got Almora and Kevin Pillar as backups but those guys don’t hit. Why didn’t they sign Jackie Bradley Jr.? Because JBJ wanted a four year contract and he’s already 31. And not even Steve Cohen, billionaire owner of the Mets, wants to go over the luxury tax limit on a good field/seldom hit type player. But add in J.D. Davis at third and Polar Bear Alonso at first and that leaves their defense with 6 NEGATIVE value defensive players. Thank God for James McCann at catcher. He’s at least passable but not a great defender. MINUS 1 ½ stars.
Total: 6 stars...may miss the playoffs. PROBABLY BECAUSE OF BAD DEFENSE.
Philadelphia Phillies: They made a lot of noise a couple of years ago about spending big money to build a winner. They went out and spent it all on Bryce Harper and then added J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius and Jake Arrieta. End of money. Now they’re stuck. They have weak starters and a disastrous bullpen. None of their young players have panned out...Scott Kingery et al. Alec Bohm had a good 2020 when he hit .338 with little power but he’s unproven in a full season. I think the Phils have botched it. They brought free agents Didi and J.T. back because to do otherwise would really show how much they botched it. They brought Dave Dombrowski in as GM and you know he can spend money. Thing is, they don’t have any more money. They lost Jake Arrieta who went back to the Cubs. That pitching staff is full of unproven young guys and vets who are middle of the road at best. Looks bad.
Bats: Who protects Bryce Harper? Andrew McCutcheon, Didi Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins, J.T.Realmuto? They all had about 10 homers. But the homers are largely a reflection of a super-hitter-friendly home ball park. None of those guys are elite hitters. 1 ½ stars.
Starters: Aaron Nola is an Ace. Zach Wheeler is a good pitcher but not a power dominator type. Zach Elfin is a good groundball pitcher. Spencer Howard is their best hope for a second dominating starter. 1 1/2 stars. This is an average rotation with just a possibility of moving up.
Bullpen: They brought in Archie Bradley who is not one of the top thirty relievers by any means but is certainly better than what they had. They picked up Hembree from the Red Sox and a few other guys. I give them 1/2 star but it’s a stretch to give them better than that. Last season was hopeless.
Middle D: Didi has lost range at shortstop. Likewise Juan Segura at second, although he’s better than average. Center field is up for grabs so who knows. But in Realmuto they have the best all around catcher in the game right now. 1 ½ stars.
Total: 5 stars… on the brink of a plunge.
Miami Marlins: A surprising Playoff team last year. They’ve been quietly drafting pitchers and it paid off. Now they need some hitters.
Bats: Starling Marte, Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar, Adam Duvall and Brian Anderson. They don’t make you shiver in your britches, do they? 1/2 star.
Starters: Sixto Sanchez(fastball), Pablo Lopez(change up) and Sandy Alcantara (sinker)...they may all be Aces. The first two probably already are. And they each feature a different put away pitch. Not much fun for a road team to come into the cavernous Marlins Park and try to adjust to those three day to day. 3 stars.
Bullpen: Right now it’s hit-or-miss. Young guys who, when they’re on can beat you but when they’re not (which is way too often) they can serve it up. The thing is, the Marlins have a lot of good arms kicking around in their system and some of these guys could improve drastically. A bunch of their guys caught the Covid thing last season and that can’t have helped them. Still, until somebody besides closer Yimi Garcia and setup man James Hoyt step up, we’ve got to rate this bullpen ½ star.
Middle D: Speed at second and center with Jon Berti and Starling Marte. Marte is a two time Gold Glover. Barely adequate at first with Jesus Aguilar. Just reliable but with great range at short with Miguel Rojas. That’s good for 1 1/2 stars.
That leaves the Marlins with Total 5 ½ stars. That’s very low but they somehow made the playoffs. Which shows you how bad MLB bloated up the Playoff field in that 2020 short season.
NL CENTRAL:
St. Louis Cardinals: Redbird Fans, I know you’re rhapsodizing about the acquisition of Nolan Arenado and think that you’ve got it made now, but to tell you the truth the Cards were favored to win the Central anyway. They are MUCH better than the other wounded duck Central ballclubs. Injuries, especially to pitching staffs, will have a huge effect on this division.
And Nolan Arenado is coming off an injury. I mean, this guy is a competitor and is going to give you a hundred per cent effort all the time. If anything, he’s going to INCREASE his effort this year to prove himself to the new team. But Nolan hurt his shoulder last year and it affected his swing. He had a low 33.7 hard hit ball rate and just didn’t have the same pop. Shoulder injuries can linger and the Cards have to watch out, the way Nolan dives after line shots down the third base line. He’s a gold glover who sells out his body in the field and that may come back to limit his offense. Also, he’s moving from the magic airless Coors Field where baseballs say “Adios Amigo” to the not so friendly confines of Busch Stadium where they say “O Hell...another warning track fly ball... let’s have a beer”. I think he may go maybe .260 with 25 taters. Not bad, exactly, but not Coors numbers.
Bats: Goldschmidt and Arenado...a classic Power Two. No doubt that’s a great improvement. The rest of the lineup is weak unless Dylan Carlson and Paul DeJong get a lot better. 2 stars.
Starters: Flaherty is steady at the top...a true Ace. Wainwright is an ageless wonder but how much can you count on him? I think he’ll do well for 5 innings a start...especially with Yadier to catch him. Carlos Marinez was hospitalized twice with the virus. Kwang Hyun Kim does it with smoke and mirrors. Miles Mikolas hurt his flexor tendon last year. Now it’s his shoulder. I rate Flaherty a full star, Wainwright and Kim average and Martinez and Mikolas a suspect minus half a star. That’s a total ½ star rating. The Cardinals are quite vulnerable in this department.
Bullpen: A whole lot of talent in this area. Giovanny Gallegos is one of the best in baseball and nobody knows him. John Gant, Andrew Miller, Alex Reyes, Jordan Hicks (101 mph fastball)...and their best new prospect leftie Matthew Liberatore who better be great because they traded Randy Arozarena to the Rays for him! 3 ½ stars! They can make some of these guys start some games.
Middle D: Start with Yadier Molina, the best all around defensive catcher of the post-Bench era. He’s the best pitch-blocker and the best game-caller. Johnny Bench and Pudge Rodriguez and some others could outthrow him. Jim Sundberg or Bench or somebody else could outframe him. But nobody has outcommanded him on a ballfield. He’s the LEADER...EL CAPITAN...JEFE! You put Yady on the field, your team ERA just went down a run and a half. And you have a leader who fights for your team and your players as hard as anybody ever has. SALUD! See you in the Hall of Fame. It’ll be awhile before we see the like again. He could bat .112 and still be worth 1 ½ stars.
The Cards have Gold Glove quality at catcher (Molina 9 GGs), third (Arenado 8 GGs), first (Goldie 3 GGs), outfield (Tyler O’Neil) and pitcher (Wainwright 2 GGs). Plus second, short and centerfield are all above average. I think that just might do: 4 stars
Total: 10 stars...if starters don’t cave they should march briskly to the Playoffs.
Milwaukee Brewers: I fail to understand how Jackie Bradley wound up on this team. They are paying him 12 mil a year for two years...to play right field? This guy is a better centerfielder than Lorenzo Cain (who has been good I admit, but he’s 34 and just sat out 2020 on his own Covid recognizance.) Are the Brewers poking Lorenzo with a stick?
Bats: Christian Yelich batted .205 last year. That’s unnerving. The Brewers had NOBODY with at least a hundred at bats reach .800 OPS except Jed Gyorko. Jackie Bradley might bat cleanup after Yelich. Those are sirens going off in Wisconsin.
1 star.
Starters: Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burns are very good pitchers. Josh Lindblom should get better after getting used to the USA after two seasons in South Korea. 2 stars
Bullpen: Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brent Suter... an Ace and two Kings. Hader is the scariest reliever West of Aroldis Chapman. Devin Williams is the 2020 Rookie of the Year and throws the best pitch in baseball right now. He threw his wicked change-up 52 % of the time last year and gave up two singles on it. The league batted .032 against his change-up. They knew what was coming but they still could not hit the thing.
3 stars
Middle D: I already talked about Lorenzo Cain and Jackie B. Jr. I don’t think Lorenzo will last as the centr fielder. Second sacker Keston Hura was maybe the worst second baseman defensively in baseball. Maybe that’s why they paid for Kolten Wong? Could there possibly be a connection? (Don’t worry, parsing out these Life Mysteries is why I get the Big Money.) The Brewers are moving Hura... who can hit at least… over to first where he will platoon. Shortstop Orlando Arcia is below average. Catcher Omar Narvaez is an expert framer but can’t hit enough to keep from being platooned with Manny Pina. That’s 2 1/2 stars for catcher, second and center field but minus half a star for being so bad at short. Net 2 stars.
Total: 8 stars...but it’s all over if Yelich goes down again.
Chicago Cubs: Don’t look now but the Cubs are going into the tank for a few years. You won’t hear them admit it but that’s what is going to happen. Do you think Theo Epstein would have left if they had a real shot at a pennant? He left Jed Hoyer in town to say all the mealy mouth crap they always say to obfuscate. The truth is the Cubs gave their stars nice contracts and now they have to let some of them go. They don’t have money for free agents. They don’t have great prospects. They let Darvish go...their Ace? And Lester...their bulldog? Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contreras are all about to finish their contracts. Then the Cubs will rebuild while fielding a loser.
Bats: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez. They were great, but each of them was great in a different year. They couldn’t put it together to repeat. Last year was a disaster for Baez (.203) and an injured Kris Bryant (.206). Now the string has run out. How long do they have to give Jason Heyward multi-millions a year? You are watching a 3 star offense turn into 1 star.
Starters: What they have left is soft throwing change-up artists like Kyle (Stork) Hendricks, Zach Davies and Alec Mills. All are good Number 3/4 type starters. None are Aces but give them credit for having the guts to get out there and throw 80 mph in this day and age. Woops! They got Jake Arrieta back. Give them half a star for the veteran whose peak, alas, didn’t last that long. 1 1/2 star.
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel looked good for a stretch near the end of the season but has had velocity and control problems in recent years. I think his best days were spent in Atlanta and Boston. Rowan Wick and Jason Adam are pretty good but there’s not much after that. 1 star.
Middle D: Nico Hoerner or David Bote at second? Or maybe Eric Sogard? That’s a question mark. Javier Baez (shortstop) and Wilson Contreras (catcher) are both GG caliber. Ian Happ is useful in center. I give the Cubs 3 ½ stars because of all round good D and extra Gold Glovers in right field with Justin Heyward and at first with Rizzo. Kris Bryant can come off third and help in left or at first. Baez can play almost anywhere if they need him to. They were afraid they were going to miss Schwarber and they wanted to get somebody just like him who can’t hit lefties but can field better. Welcome Joc Pederson! 3 ½ stars.
Total: 7 stars...it’ll take big rebound years from some of those vets.
Cincinnati Reds: A sad tale of bad timing. After years of having good offense and no pitching they found themselves loaded with Bauer, Castillo, Sonny Gray and some good arms in the Pen. So of course the hitters do a belly flop and hit .212 as a team.
Bats: Joey Votto is finished as the premier get-on-base specialist of MLB. He’s now batting in the .220s with a few more home runs than he used to hit. Bad timing. The Reds do have some power with Senzel, Suarez, Moustakas, Castellano and Winker. But you have to tolerate all the K’s and low batting averages. All together they rate about 2 stars.
Starters: The aforementioned Castillo and Gray and Tyler Mahle are solid. 2 ½ stars.
Bullpen: Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims...not household names but some good arms. The Reds also brought in Sean Doolittle and have some other pretty effective guys. 2 stars.
Middle D: Tucker Barnhart is the 2 time Gold Glove NL catcher. Votto has Covid so Moustakas may move to first until Joey gets better. That means Johnny India (what a name!) or some other kid gets called up to play second. The shortstop Kyle Farmer cannot hit. That may cost him playing time. They don’t seem to have a capable centerfielder on the roster to back up the currently injured Shogo Akiyama. The Reds are not good at the corners and I give them minus 1 star for that. Middle D adds up to 1 star.
Total: 7 ½ stars ...the Reds have a good shot at a wild card. I don’t think they are better than St. Louis or Milwaukee.
NL WEST:
Los Angeles Dodgers: The class of the league. Deep pockets and a deep farm system. Endless pitching...scary hitters, versatile defenders.
Bats: Hard to decide who the Power Two really are on this team. You’d probably think Betts and Bellinger right off, but in the series last year it was Corey Seager and the Yard Gnome Justin Turner who carried them. Give them 3 ½ stars.
Starters: I ran down their list of possible starters at the top of this article. But that still doesn’t really do justice to the strength of the Dodger pitching. They have great arms lined up from here to Albuquerque in that farm system. Three or four guys could go down and they won’t even blink. 4 1/2 stars.
Bullpen: Not as impressive as the starting squad until you realize that people like David Price and Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias may wind up in the pen! 4 stars!
Middle D: Seager and Chris Taylor are good up the middle but not the best. Bellinger in center is a GG winner. Will Smith isn’t the best catcher or close to it but he hits so much they’ll have to play him. Barnes is a good backup. Perennial GG-er Mookie Betts is so good in right you have to give the Dodgers half a star extra. 1 ½ stars.
Total: 13 1/2 stars
San Diego Padres: The Padrinos pulled off the unlikely feat of trading for two number one starters in the same year without giving up even 1 of their top 4 prospects.
The name of their GM is A.J. Preller. It’s going to be fun to watch him and Dodger exec Josh Byrnes lock horns over the next few years.
Bats: Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. That’s as good as anybody. They have plenty of help too. Will Myers, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth and CJ Abrams mean… 4 ½ stars.
Starters: Three Aces. Darvish, Snell and don’t forget that Dinelson Lamet finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. (*Lamet has a sore elbow and will probably be out until mid April.) Chris Paddock, Joe Musgrove and Cuban leftie Adrian Morejon are adequate at the bottom of the rotation, and phenom leftie MacKenzie Gore is trying to get it together this Spring. The Padres don’t have the depth at starter that the Dodgers have. 3 1/2 stars.
Bullpen: 4 pitchers with closer stuff: Emilio Pagan, Keone Kela, Mark Melancon and Drew Pomeranz. Pierce Johnson is in the mix somewhere too. 3 stars.
Middle D: Best infield in baseball. Machado and Hosmer have won gold gloves and Tatis will win one soon unless Francisco Lindor or Javier Baez shuts him out. The centerfielder Trent Grisham won a GG last season. Catcher Austin Nola is hurt for the early part of the season but Victor Caratini and phenom Luis Campusano are capable backups. 3 stars.
Total: 14 stars. Yes, I am surprised. The Dodgers have a good edge in depth though, so it should come down to injuries as to who rules the West. Also, which starters have the bigger seasons and who has the bigger season offensively...Mookie, Corey and the Boys in Blue or Fernando, Manny and the Earth Tones.
NL Predictions:
Division Winners: Washington, St. Louis, San Diego
Wild Cards: Los Angeles, Atlanta
Pennant: San Diego
Next week we’ll run down the AL in Part 3 of ‘POWER TWOS.’
