MARCO’S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2019: LAW OF AVERAGES
It
always happens sooner or later. A freak hurricane stalls over one
place for 2 days, dumping rain by the yard on one cursed spot until
inundation is complete.
Remember
that damned Hurricane Harvey that clobbered Houston a couple of years
ago? 50 some odd inches it deposited upon the freeways and reservoirs
of the Bayou City over a few days...and it’s happening again as I
write this.
But
that wasn’t even the worst deluge in this state’s history. No,
that would be the famous rainstorm in Thrall, Texas, just north of
Austin, in 1921, when a hurricane parked over Williamson county and
proceeded to obliterate the little farming town under a record 38
inch waterfall in one 24 hour period, still the all-time record
rainfall for one day in the history of the continental United States.
(It supposedly rained almost 50 inches in one 24 hour period on the
island of Kauai in the state of Hawaii in 2018.) Drowned 215 people
when there weren’t that many people available to drown. Wiped out
everything...houses, stores, livestock, roads...almost erased that
little town from the Earth. Estimated damage of 19 million in 1921
dollars...don’t even ask me how much that would be today.
I
was reminded of Thrall when I saw the pictures of the Bahamas on TV
during the attack of Hurricane Dorian. Appalling, frightening
devastation. But the Bahamas took the punch that was aimed at Florida
and milked the life out of that Category 5 until it finally meandered
away to the north, hopefully sparing the southern U.S. from the worst
of its weapons.
I
hope our country offers some help to the ruined islands that absorbed
that punishment. It would be a good way to honor Roberto Clemente
(his Day...Sept. 20) who died trying to bring emergency supplies to
earthquake victims in Central America.
COMEBACKS:
Baseball seems like a slightly unseemly sideshow compared to the
suffering of a whole nation, but that’s the way of the world.
There’s always a disaster somewhere and humanity needs something
exciting and epic to remind us that we must celebrate when and
whatever we can in the interludes between apocalypses.
And
so I give thanks that I can occasionally turn to my favorite sport to
give me surcease. So thank you Washington Nationals for coming
back from a 6 run deficit in the ninth inning of your game with the
Mets and winning, 11-10, overcoming such a margin for the
first time in 275 baseball games played in the major leagues this
year.
It’s
especially notable because the Nats gave up 5 runs in the top of the
ninth when their shortstop, the normally excellent Trea Turner,
forgot how many outs there were in the inning and didn’t feed his
second baseman for a made to order double play that would have ended
the frame. Something you almost never see from a major league
shortstop.
Usually
when a team makes a boner like that, psychological paralysis occurs
and the offending Bozos lie down and die. But not the Nats. They got
collectively Smoking Hot and rattled off 7 hits, culminating in a
mythic 3 run homer by Kurt Suzuki that flushed the Mets. The
New Yorkers themselves have had quite a few walk-off moments this
second half of the season, as they have come back from total
irrelevancy, but none like this.
PHENOMS:
Perhaps the most compelling event in baseball the last couple of
years is the sudden arrival of the young adult ball players who look
like future superstars… if they’re not superstars already. I’m
talking about the under-21 set: Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto and
Fernando Tatis in the National
League and Vlad Guerrero, Raphael Devers and
Gleyber Torres in the American. This is not including some more
youngsters who are definite stars in the making. Players like Yordan
Alvarez in Houston
(22 years old) and Bo Bichette in
Toronto (21) and a whole bunch of players aged from 20-22 who are
looking awfully good. And that’s just the everyday players! Not
even counting the young pitchers!
So
what’s going on? In the history of baseball, there have always been
stars who made it to the bigs early. Mickey Mantle was 19
but it still took him about 3 years to get hot. Same with Willie
Mays, who came up as a 20-year old in 1951 and didn’t really
get it going until he had spent a year and a half in the army and
came back to lead the league in several hitting categories in 1954.
The
ultimate teenage Hall of Famer was Mel Ott of the old New
York Giants. Manager John McGraw saw him as a 16 year
old and kept him on the major
league roster so some minor league hitting instructor wouldn’t try
to change his batting style... which was revolutionary at the time.
I’m
talking about the timing step that Ott developed on his own where he
balanced on his back leg (he hit leftie) as the pitch was delivered
and raised his right leg in the air before launching himself at the
pitch. Saduhara Oh
had a very similar style. It’s
something you
see everyday in the majors these days but Ott was the first to do it,
and by the time he was 20 he
was a triple crown threat and went on to lead the league in home runs
6 times as a 170 pounder!
So
teenage Phenoms have
always been with us, but this new crop is not only impressive….they
are already leading the league in hitting categories! Kind of
extraordinary, but there’s a reason.
The
reason is that scouting in the information age has gotten really good
at identifying future stars. The reason is that coaching at every
level is taking advantage of major league norms like pitching
machines, weight training and nutrition. High School teams have
whirlpools and video. Players aren’t taking 5 or 6 years to learn
the game and they are becoming major league ready at an earlier age.
Also,
there is room for them on major league rosters with the new trend of
moving middle-grade veterans off of rosters and out of the game as
soon as they hit the edge of their decline phase and are earning more
money. There’s a constant vacuum on 40 man rosters that can be
filled with young and hungry ball players from the Caribbean, Japan,
Central America and other baseball crazy cultures.
These
players are well-trained and fresh and healthy and play the game well
enough to insert them into starting roles right away. No more waiting
til they’re seasoned 25 year olds before moving them up.
And
it’s going to stay that way. MLB teams are going to keep young,
controllable players on their rosters and get rid of the old Pros.
Pay super stars like Torres and Guerrero the minimum as they start
leading the league in various stats. When they are eligible for
arbitration and free agency, let them go and pick up the draft
choices and draft some more Wunderkinds.
Churn the roster. Turn it over to a new generation of players every
five years. Don’t wind up with a 42 year old former hero like
Albert Pujols
that’s collecting 30 million a year. Just keep paying Ronald
Acuna $560,000 to become
a 40-40 man at age 21.
Of
course Acuna is pretty good so maybe dangle a long-term contract in
front of him like the Braves just did...and the new Willie Mays will
be a Brave until he’s 30 at least (with team options to buy him out
or get rid of him if he gets hurt). What’s Ronald going to be
making at age 30? 17 million a year folks. Yes, I know... sounds
good. Not exactly a pitiful amount. But 17 million is chicken feed
compared to the contracts older stars have regularly
commanded...stars that have never come close to Acuna’s
performance.
It’s
the new paradigm.
FOR
YOUR INFORMATION: 11 MLB franchises have set their all time
record for most homers in a season this year. SO FAR!
Of
the 138 MLB players who qualify for batting awards based on 3.1 plate
appearances per team game...98 of them have 20 homers or more. SO
FAR! That’s 2/3 of the the regular players in all of the major
leagues! 28 guys have hit at least 35 taters. SO FAR!
I
never thought I’d see a season where somebody who hits 25 homers
would be considered anemic.
This
will go down with the 1930 NL rabbit ball year and a couple of the
big steroid eras seasons as the most out of the norm years in
baseball history. (See last blog on the rabbit ball currently being
used now that MLB owns Rawlings.)
PENNANT
RACES: The Cubbies just got flatten-ated by the Cardinals
in four straight 1-run defeats at Wrigley Field. First time St. Louis
has swept a four game series at Wrigley since 1921. And these were
ugly, bitter losses. In the game Saturday closer Craig Kimbrel
came in for the Adorables and gave up two consecutive dingers.
Then, on Sunday, with the relief squad depleted, Joe Maddon let
Yu Darivsh start the ninth inning after throwing 100 pitches and
giving up only one run. Guess who lost?
That
means the Brewers are tied with Washington for the wild cards
even after losing their MVP Yelich. I don’t think anybody
will catch the Cardinals but baseball is whacky this year.
Look
out for the Nationals in the Playoffs. Those three starters they
have...all Aces...look pretty formidable in a short series. Of course
their bullpen is filled with the ghosts of relievers past. But
Scherzer, Strasburg and
Corbin are all firing the ball. That’s one more Ace than any
other team has. I guess the Dodgers are close with Kershaw,
Buehler and Ryu.
The
Braves are fun to watch with all those great everyday players
but I don’t think their starters are in the same class as the
Dodgers or the Nationals.
Over
in the American League the Astros have Verlander, Cole and
Greinke. Those first two are the most dominant pitchers
in baseball right now. That makes the Astros sort of a better hitting
version of a two-headed starter- monster rotation than the Arizona
Diamondbacks of 2001 had with Randy Johnson and
Curt Schilling.
The
Yankees are super in the bullpen. Good thing because none of
their starters except perhaps james Paxton can seem to pitch
more than 5 innings per start. If it comes down to the Yanks vs. the
Stros for the AL pennant I pick the Astros... but I’m watching that
series!
And
don’t forget about the Twins and the Oakland Athletics.
Very similar teams made up of .250 hitting power boys who mash the
long ball. Short on pitching, both of them...but they can crush in a
short series.
October
is just around the corner. It’s been a long summer and I’m ready
for autumn baseball.
Best
to you all!
Marco
