MARCO'S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: FREE AGENT SCLEROSIS!
Here's
hoping you've all had a safe, sane holiday season and didn't get the
flu like my wife. We spent the Xmas holiday quarantined in our home
while I ran the Roku for her. I never got the foul virus but we
didn't want to go visit the grandkids until we were sure we were
non-contagious.
Of
course, Our grandkids and their parents all got the flu the next week
anyway so we couldn't even see them by New Years. Finally we're all
healthy and our Daughter-in-Law is making Christmas dinner and we're
taking the kids' presents down to San Antonio tomorrow for our
long-delayed celebration.
With
all this time in house it seems like I could have written a lot about
the winter trade/free agent shocks and surprises but nothing happened
at the winter meetings and almost nothing afterward. Everybody kept
saying that once Stanton and Ohtani decied where they were going
everything would start shaking out. But both signed a long time ago
and still no break in the market.
The
reasons for this are intricate and tied to many situations:
1/
None of the big market teams want to go far over the spending cap
like in previous years. An obscure rule of the spending cap penalties
is if you go over the cap three years in a row you have to pay an
extra $50 million or so. If you stay under the cap in that third
year, though, the fine resets at a much lower penalty for the next 3
years. Not even the Yankees want to pay $50 mil to the
have-nots of the world, so Brian Cashman (GM of
NY) very cleverly signed Stanton and ditched enough salary
from other players to stay under. If he could find some poor fool to
take on Jacoby Ellsbury (he gets $21+ mil a year
no-trade contract til 2020 and is now a bench player exclusively)
Cashman would go get Manny Machado from Baltimore. Or
Cash could just wait til next year and get Machado anyway when he
becomes a free agent. This would really be bad news for the other 29
teams but I'll talk about that later.
2/
Now that the big headline guys Stanton and Ohtani have signed,
people are waiting to see who gets Hosmer and J.D.Martinez.
Scott Boras reps those two and Boras is very good at waiting
teams out until they panic and give his clients absurd 10 year
contracts for multi-millions. Sometimes if only one team is bidding
he'll lie and pretend another team is very interested and get the
first team to bid against itself. Owners love him for this.
3/
Tied to my last remark, teams have finally figured out that 8-10 year
contracts to players, expecially those over thirty, seldom work out
well for them. Look it up: Ellsbury, Josh Hamilton, ARod's
second big contract for NY. Werth, Tulowitzski, Heyward, Fielder,
Wright, Ryan Howard... you know the sad litany, don't you?
Even
big stars like Albert Pujols become a terrible drag on a
team's ability to sign and keep other players. Pujols is a Hall of
Famer to be. He still hits homers and drives in runs. But his feet
hurt and he can't play even first base any more. He can't run. He
can't hit for average. His on base last season was a scary .286. And
he has 4 more no-trade years on his contract at which time he'll be
41. That last year, 2021, Albert will get 30 million smackers for his
time. It's a good thing Angel owner Omar Minaya is made
of money. (I take my hat off to him and the Angels. They wooed Ohtani
to come to them for almost nothing and also picked up All Star Zach
Cozart from the Reds to play third and Ian Kinsler
from the Tigers to play second.)
Now
lets go Deep State:
Over-30-year-old
stars are only getting 3-5 year offers.
J.D.Martinez
is 31 and doesn't play too well on defense. He's only played three
seasons where he appeared in at least 120 games. (The guy is injury
prone.) He had an insanely hot season last year, homering every 8 at
bats for Arizona. He hit 45 dingers in only 119 games for
Detroit and Arizona together!!! That's unreal! His slugging average
was a league leading .690! Needless to say, Arizona wants him back.
But they're still only offerring a 5 year contract. Boston is
also bidding, and so is St. Louis and maybe a few other teams
that are lurking in the back alleys.
St.
Louis made a great trade this winter and got Ozuna from the
Fire Sale Florida Marlins. They still need more hitting and
more power, thus their interest in Martinez. They won't like his D in
right field in big old Busch Stadium though. Hosmer might work better
because they could move Carpenter to a swing man position at
third, second and first and have a 4-time Gold Glover in Hosmer.
(More on The Hoz below.)
Boston
is everbody's choice to grab Martinez.
First
of all, Dave Dombrowski, the GM of the Sox, is Mister Big
Move. He loves the splashy trade or free agent get. The Sox were
anemic power-wise last year. So what's the problem? Sic 'em Dave!
Not
so fast. It turns out that Mr. Martinez hits most of his home runs to
center and right center and right field. That worked great for him in
Arizona, but Fenway is fairly cavernous in those directions. If he
tries to change his swing to be a pull hitter, who knows how screwed
up he could get?
Also,
where to play him? You have the best defensive outfield in baseball
in the B-boys Benintendi, Bradley and Betts. Seems
counter productive to break that up. So put Martinez at DH and watch
him rake. Well, what do you do with Hanley Ramirez? Hanley was
hurt last year but he feels better and is a cinch 35 homer guy if he
can stay strong. If he gets hot he can carry a team. He doesn't like
to play defense anymore, but if Hanley could move around from DH to
first to third they could keep Mitch Moreland and his
gold glove at first most of the time and rest rookie third sacker
Devers against lefties. (Both Devers and Ramirez are very
suspect defensively at third.)
If
they get Martinez they have to play him. Hard to trade Hanley, but
maybe the Sox have a plan because they've made a 5 year offer to
Martinez. One good thing about J.D. is that he won't cost them their
draft choice. That's a big factor in why they went after him and not
Hosmer.
The
Hoz is one of my favorite players so I admit I'm in favor of him
going to my Red Sox. But I see the limitations.
The
Sox want homers and Hoz only hit 25 (with Yellowstone Kaufman Stadium
as his home park, he still only hit 6 on the road and that's weak.)
He's mostly a left center inside out hitter. That would make him a 50
doubles a year guy at Fens, but still wouldn't change the homer
totals. But the Sox can use a first baseman more than another
outfielder or DH. Expecially a Gold Glover. Also, Hosmer can run, is
a smart player, hits for a high average (.318...third in the
league... to Moreland's .244) and has a high on-base percentage. He's
also a winner. He just has that something...he proved it in
the World Series of 2014 and 2015.
The
Sox figured out that Moreland could give them the same homers as
Hosmer for 3 mil a year instead of 20. Also, Hosmer costs them their
draft pick and a hit to their international signing money limit. (God
forbid I should try to explain that.) But Moreland is always getting
hurt, can't hit lefties and is 32. In two years they need another
first baseman. And Hosmer will be gone. Plus, Hosmer is only 28...you
can give him an 8 year contract and it probably won't burn you too
bad. And for the next 8 years you have a real race horse to help you
keep up with the Yankees.
Well,
to keep up with the Yankees you might need Hosmer and Martinez and
Moreland and Hanley Ramirez too...it's all hands on deck to keep up
with the Bombers these days.
Hosmer
could very easily resign with K.C. for seven or eight years. The
Royals offerred him $147 mil. The Padres offerred $141 but if
you're going to a rebuild team, why not just stay home?
New
York General Manager Brian Cashman is well named. He has big money at
his disposal, but now that the Yankees youth movement has been so
successful so quickly he can shop til he drops. Aaron Judge, Didi
Gregorius, Gary Sanchez at catcher, Greg Bird at first,
plus this season's rookies Gleybar Torres, Miguel Andujar
and Clint Frazier.
Those young players all look like keepers or in Torres, Andujar and
Frazier's cases, great trade bait for another stud starting pitcher.
But most importantly, having half the lineup playing young and cheap
gives the Yanks room to maneuver for stars like Stanton and Machado
and another big name pitcher.
Toronto,
Baltimore and Tampa
Bay are being forced to retrench. Only Boston can compete with
New York in the East.
The
Yankees already have a pretty impressive starting staff if Sabathia
and Tanaka can
keep it together. Severino is a new Monster, and Sonny
Gray, much coveted by nearly everyone, is merely an aferthought
on the staff.
Their
bullpen is the best in baseball. Chapman, Chad Green, Betances,
Warren, Kahnle...they are very deep.
And
look at their potential lineup if they get Machado:
Gardner
LF (bats left)
Stanton
DH (R)
Machado
3B (R)
Judge
RF (R)
Bird
1B (L)
Sanchez
C (R)
Gregorius
SS (L)
Hicks
CF (S)
Torres
2B (R)
That
lineup hit 247 home runs last year. I'm not even counting what Torres
might hit in his rookie season.
I
can't see many teams who would be anxious to send their left-handed
starters out to face that lineup, so the big beneficiaries would
probably be Gregorius, Gardner and Bird who would get to face
a steady diet of right-handers.
Reminds
me of the old Brooklyn Dodger lineup of the 50's. Duke
Snider got rich as the only left-handed hitter surrounded by
dangerous right handed hitters like Robinson, Hodges, Campanella
and Furillo.
Between 1954 and 1957 when he was the best pitcher in baseball, Hall
of Fame leftie Warren Spahn only made 2 starts against the
Dodgers! That's the best pitcher in baseball and they wouldn't even
risk him against that lineup!
I
think we'll see something like that with the Yankees. Maybe the top
lefties like Sale and
Keuchel will take their turn against the Bombers, but who'd you
rather take your chances against...Gardner, Gregorius, and Bird? Or
Stanton, Judge, Sanchez and Machado?
This
could get ugly.
Other
free agents and their prospects are Jake Arrieta, the Cubs
rightie who's trying to get rich with a big contract even though he's
definitely gone south since his big year in 2015. He'll probably
resign with the Cubs...who would be hard pressed to replace him
without giving up a lot in a trade. The Cardinals are making noises
about signing him, but that may just be to annoy the Cubs. The Texas
Rangers have to sign some pitcher, so they may step in on Arrieta
or else get Yu Darvish back.
The
other two Royals stars on the market are third sacker Moustakis
and center fielder Lorenzo Cain. Cain is a little old at 32 to
expect a long term deal. Moustakis is a little fat to cash in on his
one great season last year. Moose could return to KC if Hosmer signs
elsewhere. Most teams seem set at third or will wait to try for
Machado next year. Cain might go to the Giants.
The
Giants also might add Jay Bruce. They have to get some hitters
and they can't seem to sign the top guys. However, the Giants need to
get younger...much younger. Cain and Bruce aren't the ticket for
that. (Nor will Longoria, who they picked up from Tammpa Bay.
Longo is great for the short term, but is also on the downside of his
career.)
Watch
for these developments in 2018…
NL:
The
Atlanta Braves screwed up bad and lost thirteen of their
international signees as a penalty for cheating on international
player signing rules. They also lost a draft choice and two execs and
a lot of money. This will set back their rebuild at least for this
season.
The
Marlins have punched their ticket for last place in the NL East. You
can't help but think that they will do everything in their power to
finish as the worst team in baseball so they can get the top draft
choices available for the next two or three years. How do you like
that spirit of competition, Florida fans?
The
Philadelphia Phillies will finish second in the East and come
very close to being the second wild card.
The
Mets will continue fielding a triple A quality lineup to back
up their fragile-armed pitching staff.
The
Dodgers and Braves executed a strange trade centered on Kemp
from the Braves for Adrian Gonzalez from the Dodgers. Then
both players were cut by their new teams. This was a salary cap trade
that saved both teams money. Strange, esoteric, weird trades like
this will become common.
The
Phillies, Cardinals, the Rockies and the Giants are all trying
to get better fast. Everybody else in the National League seems
content with the status quo or are tanking intentionally.
AL:
Baltimore
and Toronto have illusions that they can still compete in the East
and are reluctant to rebuild. Now they'll lose their star players to
free agency and be dragged kicking and screaming into the bottom
rungs of the East. Tampa Bay at least is realistic about their
inability to keep their nucleus and is embarking on ...what? ...their
fourth or fifth total rebuild in the last fifteen years? Thus die all
small market clubs.
Cleveland
has a great, great bunch of players. But they have a limited window
because they don't have enough money to add some big stars to help
them get over the top. I think they ought to make a big play for a
front line starter and one more dynamic hitter to replace Santana and
Jay Bruce. If they won a World Series, it would do so much to get
fans to come back to Jacobs Field. Last year they only drew 2 million
fans. Adn at one point they won 22 in a row! Spend money now,
Cleveland! Make the big push to change the history of this franchise
like the Cubs did. You have a great core...buy Hosmer or J.D. or
trade for Sliding Billy Hamilton and win games with speed.
Don't finish behind the Yanks and the Astros again. You only
have a couple of years to cash in on this talented club.
Minnesota...I
can't tell if they'll get better or regress again. Depends on their
pitching.
Detroit
will finish last this year. K.C. will finish next to last. Chicago
will be much better but is still one year away from being a real
competitor. The white Sox will win the Central in 2020.
California
has really inproved their team, but without more pitching they still
won't catch Houston. Their recent signees Upton, Kinsler and
Cozart ( not to mention Pujols) are all passed their sell-by date. So
two years from now the Angels will be on the way down again. They
need pitchers NOW.
The
Rangers and the Athletics will continue to suck. Oakland has
lost their land to build a new stadium. MLB should step in and
bitch-slap the Giants into backing off of their refusal to let the
A's move into San Jose. SJ is the tenth largest city in America and
is surrounded by other cities on the peninsula in easy driving
distance of a nifty little park in San Jose. Go where the fans are!
Houston
will probably add another starter before the season. I think they
should also load up on relief pitchers. Their young everyday players
are brimming with confidence now that they've won. I see the Astros
and the Yankees as two super 105 win teams in 2018 with the rest of
the league just pretending they can be relevant.
Happy
New Year! Only a month until Spring Training!
--Your
Humble Correspondent
