MARCO'S BASEBALL
BLOG-O-ROONIE: RAMBLE TAMBLE RACE
September 17, 2016
As you may have
noticed as you peruse these ramblings, I have been a bit negatory
about the quality of the pennant races this year. I predicted that
the National League races would come down to Washington, New York
and an outside shot for Miami in the East, St. Louis, Chicago and
Pittsburgh in the Central and Los Angeles and San Francisco in the
West. Everybody else would be pretty much irrelevant and though I
take no pride of prescience for these fairly obvious conclusions...I
was right.
Washington is a
shoo-in for first in the East. I predicted New York but their
rotation blew up, leaving only Thor Syndergaard and The
Ageless One Colon to keep them in it. Matz...hurt.
Harvey...operated upon. DeGrom....arm problems. Pennant
hopes...damaged.
Somehow the Metskies
have survived, and even gone on a short 7 game winning streak until
the Nats bopped them upside the head the other night. Thor...if they
don't watch out they'll blow his elbow out too. Colon...that guy
could pitch out of his coffin. What an eternal arm. I am dubious that
the Mets can make a wild card. They have a real tough schedule.
As far as the Nats
go...I guess Murphy has to be their MVP...maybe the league's
too. He's absolutely killed the Mets all year. Harper has been
strangely ineffective since May. They lost Steven “my elbow always
hurts 'cause I throw wrong” Strasburg...probably for the duration,
but Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and
maybe Roark give them three good starters to win
playoffs with. They have a chance to advance over the Dodgers, who
they will most likely meet in the playoffs unless San Francisco shows
late life.
San Fran...best
record in baseball before the break....worst record in baseball after
the break! How do you figure that team? They are a bunch of
Jekyll/Hydes. Their three, four and five spots in the rotation have
been truly miserable outside of an occasional flurry from “The
Shark” Samardzja. With Cueto and Bumgarner and
the newly acquired Matt Moore, the Giants figure to be the
team nobody wants to face in the Wild Card game or
Playoffs...Bumgarner is just too scary in a big game. I predict that
if the Gigantes make the Wild Card, they will win it over either St.
Louis or New York (I'm writing off Pittsburgh and Miami now) and then
be primed for the Cubs. Their problem has been offense. Buster
Posey hasn't hit a homer in, I think, 49 games now!
The Cubs, of
course, are the Team of Destiny this year. Personally, I call that
the Kiss of Death designation. The Cubs can find ways to lose,
believe me. Let's imagine a scenario...
Bumgarner pitches a
gem in the Wild Card game, overcoming the Cardinals. The Giants split
the two games in Wrigley to start the playoffs with Cueto winning the
first game. Back in San Fran, Bumgarner goes on a full 4 days rest
and beats the Cubs again. (Remember this is only a 5-game round, so
now the Giants only have to win 1 of the next 2). Boche decides not
to go with Cueto in the 4th game on 3 days rest and starts
Matt Moore. If Moore wins, it's over. If he loses, they get another
day off and Cueto goes back to Wrigley on 5 full days of rest with
Bumgarner available out of the pen. I don't know about you, but I
like the Giants' chances in a short series with that many off-days
and quality starters.
Now, I hasten to
add, the Cubbies have some starters of their own. Arrieta, Lester,
Hamels and Hendricks are all great, and Lackey is now healthy and
a proven gamer. They've also got 105 mph out in the pen in Senor
Chapman.
Trouble is, the Cubs
are EXPECTED to win this year. They've been the best team in baseball
all year and that's a subtle kind of pressure.
The Giants will be
playing with house money and Big Game Bumgarner out there. The Cubs
also strike out too much and that can bite you when you're trying to
eke out wins by a run or two in a tight game. But...they have the
best infield defense in baseball, a very good outfield defense,
plenty of hitters and a secret weapon in David Ross at catcher. He
handles those pitchers like a maestro.
Maybe Maddon
can keep them loose but I think that's a “trap” series.
By the way, I
officially bestow the nickname “Stork” upon long, lanky Kyle
Hendricks, the Cubs sensational young starter, currently leading the
league in ERA and WHIP. If Samardzja is the Shark, this guy gets to
be the Stork. Remember Ted “The Mad Stork” Hendricks who used to
play linebacker for the Raiders in the 60's? (don't tell me you're
too young!) In his honor, all lanky players in any sport named
Hendricks should be officially designated as “Stork”.
Pittsburgh
has missed the exit that says “This way to the World Series.” Not
enough pitching after Gerrit Cole got hurt. He never made it
back for long and is now on the DL for the third time. They traded
Liriano and the closer Melancon so they kind of threw
in the towel there. Harrison is hurt now. Polanco
slumped. Marte has been great but now is banged up. Andrew
McCutcheon got tired of getting hit with revenge fastballs and
decided to be a .240 hitter. Sad Sad.
The Cardinals
had several injuries and the young hitters (Grichuk, Piscotty,
Wong, Hazelbaker) couldn't stay hot.
Once Wacha
went down they finally ran dry of fresh starters. (All except
Martinez have WHIPS above 1.3)I guess Carpenter and Molina
and Wainwright are the leaders on that team but they just don't
match up with the Cubs. I say they make the Wild Card but that's
about it.
The Dodgers...ah,
yes, the Dodgers. I thought Dave Roberts would make a difference on
the mentality of that club. Maybe it's him, maybe not....but the
Dodgers are loose. They didn't panic when Kershaw went down.
Management traded for Rich Hill who's been great. They weren't
afraid to send Puig down for a reality check in the minors.
The young hitters, especially Seager, have done their part and
the vets like Gonzalez and
Turner and
Utley have been cool and mostly productive.
Roberts
showed me something when he made that very tough call to take Hill
out a game after he'd pitched 7 perfect innings because a blister was
forming on his finger. Hey, the manager is supposed to do the best
thing for the club to advance, and losing Hill for the rest of the
season was not going to help that. A blister is an injury when it's
on a pitcher's throwing finger. Hill has a bad history with blisters.
Not the manager's fault. He made the right call. Agonizing call
though it was.
Kershaw is “back
strong”. (no pun intended but it works, don't you think?). If
Kershaw can break even with Scherzer, the Dodgeheads could advance.
NL MVP
CANDIDATES:
EAST: Murphy/Nats
CENTRAL: Bryant,
Rizzo/Cubs Joey Votto/Reds (he won't win but he's hit .421
the second half. Are you kidding?)
WEST: Seager/Dodgers
Arenado/Rockies
I'll take Murphy.
NL CY YOUNG
CANDIDATES: (lots of 'em!)
EAST:
Syndergaard/Mets Scherzer/Nats Fernandez/Marlins
CENTRAL: Lester,
Hendricks, Arrieta/Cubs
WEST:
Kershaw/Dodgers Bumgarner, Cueto/Giants
Scherzer is my
choice.
AL: Now things get
interesting! 10 teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and 6
could still win a division title.
The real stunner is
how close the East has remained all season.
At first you think
Baltimore is pulling away. Then they go flat. Then the Birds
come back with all those big homers and a shut down closer in
Britton.
The Red Sox
make it through a mine field of West coast trips and a murderous 43
game stretch against mostly contending opponents and come out of
it...can you believe it?...with a 25-18 record. Then they go home and
drop 2 to Baltimore.
Toronto seems
like the team to beat most of the season until Joey Bats and
Donaldson get banged up and all of a sudden they're losing all the
close games. But they're still tied for a wild card spot.
And New
York...New York!... who folded their hand and dealt two thirds of
their miracle bullpen and their best hitter Beltran and
started playing rookies. Wait til next year-New York...finally trying
to get out from under all those horrible big contracts. New York
started winning and hasn't stopped. Now they play the Sox 7 times in
the last two weeks. That should tell the tale right there. (They just
lost the heartbreaker of the year when Hanley Ramirez touched
them for a walk off in game one at Fenway. They lost the next one
too. Now the Yanks have to rally to split the series at Fenway and
win 2 out of 3 at the Stadium to stay in it.)
An interesting
dynamic is how the September call-ups of minor league prospects and
vets reclaimed from the DL has affected the races. The Red Sox got to
try Moncado at third. He struck out 8 times in a row at one
point but could still be a valuable pinch runner for the time being.
They can also keep
three catchers on the roster now.
New york came up
with the big Sanchez at catcher who hit 11 homers in his first
20 games or something. Of course, they were going to put him at
catcher regardless. What an arm!
Some people say the
September call ups screw up the race but I think it reflects the
strength of an organization, and that's certainly a factor in
winning, isn't it? Sure fills out the bullpens and makes for
interminable game lengths.
Over in the Central
it's been Cleveland for quite a while now. They made the big
trade for Andrew Miller (betcha the Yanks wish they'd kept
that guy).
It looked like
Kansas City was making a push behind their inspirational
leader Hosmer, but they came up short on starting pitching and
had Lorenzo Cain hurt his wrist. I think they are out of it
now, if not mathematically.
Detroit is
still alive but lost to Minnesota a couple of times. Can't do
that and make up ground on all those behemoth teams ahead of them.
There's been a Justin Upton sighting. After posting
sub-Mendoza numbers all year, he makes it all up in one September and
will probably wind up with 25 dingers and 85 rbis. So he looks
consistent but is anything but.
The West has seen
Texas surge into an insurmountable lead for the division, but
Houston and Seattle are still alive in the Wild Card.
Texas very cagily
went out and traded for Jonathon Lucroy...a top 5
catcher...from the Brewers. That solidified them at the
backstop and he's hitting .300. They also got Beltran from the
fire-sale Yanks but Carlos went bust so far. He might have gotten 2
or 3 hits, hard to find anything but zeros in the box scores.
Their main problem
is pitching. Hamels was steady all year but suddenly got tired
and blew up in several starts. Without him they don't have a chance
of advancing very far in the playoffs, I don't think. Darvish
came back but is not blowing people away with that rebuilt arm. The
rest of the staff is game but shaky. They need somebody to emerge.
Their offense is
plenty good. Led by MVP candidate Beltre, the youngsters like
Profar and Mazara are doing well. Their fireplug is
that second baseman Odor. What a pistol. Kind of a Pete Rose
type with Hot Sauce. Surprising power. Like Altuve, a little
guy with pop.
Houston was coming
on strong until Cy Younger Dallas Kuechel went down. That'll
kill your Mo. They don't have much behind him and they cannot beat
the Rangers. Altuve has finally worn down a little after being lights
out all season. What a player! Should be the MVP cause he just
carries that team. Should be a leadoff hitter but they have to bat
him third cause he's their only good high average hitter with power.
Everybody else just tries to get one dinger per twenty strikeouts. I
think Houston is done for this year.
Here's a little
aside: How about all the star second basemen all of a sudden?
1/Altuve/Astros/.341/24/94/.952ops/27sb
2/Murphy/Nats/.350/25/104/.992
3/Dozier/Twins/.282/41/98/.934
4/LeMahieu/Rockies/.349/10/62/.914
5/Cano/Mariners/.296/33/87/.865
6/Odor/Rangers/.281/31/85/.820
7/Segura/Diamondbacks/.316/16/56/.845/30sb
8/Pedroia/Red
Sox/.329/13/66/.849
...that's
right...Dustin Pedroia is hitting .329 and he's maybe 8th
on the second base depth chart!! And I didn't even mention Kipnis,
Kinsler, Schoop and
Castro...all with over 20 homers!
Seattle is
maybe the sleeper team. They've won 8 in a row and everybody is
getting hot at once. Even the ever-enigmatic Taijaun Walker
has been lights out. Cruz is bombing for 37 taters. Cano has
been hitting all year and still not running out ground balls.
CY YOUNG CANDIDATES:
East: Tanaka/Yanks
Porcello/Red Sox (Wright got hurt) Britton/Orioles
Central:
Kluber/Indians Sale/White Sox
West: Hamels/Rangers
I give it to Kluber
because Sale acted like a baby and cut up his old-timer's uniform.
MVP CANDIDATES:
East:
Ortiz,Betts/Red Sox Donaldson,Encarnacion/Blue Jays
Manchado/Orioles
Central:
Hosmer/Royals (won't win but deserves votes) Dozier/Twins
West:
Beltre,Odor/Rangers Altuve/Astros Trout/Angels
Cruz/Mariners
My winner: very
close between Altuve and Ortiz. Altuve has carried his team all
season. He's very far above everybody else on this list as a complete
player with his running ability, hitting for high average, power and
gold glove defense all a factor in helping his team win. Even though
his team probably won't make the playoffs, it's not because Altuve
didn't do everything he could do. Without him, where are the Astros?
Trout and Dozier are similar to Altuve in that they play for losing
teams but absolutely carry them.
Ortiz is a special
case. His numbers are very MVP worthy...top 5 in batting, ribbies,
doubles, close in homers. He doesn't run and he doesn't play defense
so that has to set him back behind Altuve.
Papi's intangibles,
however, are off the charts. He's the only Red Sox who hasn't had a
significant slump this year. He's still the guy they want up with the
game on the line, even at age 40. He's still the guy you want backing
you up in a fight on the field. He's still the guy they want in the
dugout. The unquestioned spiritual leader...the face of the
franchise...the living legend. Look in the dugout and all the young
players are hugging him like he was Santa Claus or something. (If
Santa Claus was occasionally getting rung up on a checked swing and
taking a bat to his sleigh in the dugout!) Hell, even the opposing
players are always hugging him. He's the League Teddy Bear.
Offensively, he gives the rest of the lineup and all those youngsters
and head cases lots of cover. He's the focus batting third. The game
comes through his at bats. The rest of the guys can relax and work
out their issues and develop. He even takes care of most of the media
demands.
I say that's
unbelievably valuable...but how do you really measure it? Give it to
Altuve...a fabulous player. But remember what 40-year-old David Ortiz
did this season.
Adios, Big
Papi...hopefully we'll see you in the Playoffs!
(dream sequence)*
I CAN SEE IT NOW! The Red Sox playing the Cubs in the World Series.
Fenway and Wrigley...old time parks to help us venerate the history
and majesty of baseball. The Monster and the Ivy. Theo Epstein comes
back to haunt his old employers and he brings Lester and David Ross
with him. And he brings Chapman to continue torturing his old Al East
opponents.
But wait a
minute...Ortiz can't play at Wrigley unless you sit Hanley...the damn
DH rule screws up the Red Sox chemistry! I guess they'll just have to
win a few at Fenway.
I CAN SEE IT NOW!
I
better go take a melatonin and have a nap.
