MARCO'S BASEBALL
BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016
“RACES AND
ACES”
What happened to all
the Pitching Aces of the American League? We've been used to
ten or eleven real stoppers per league in recent years, but half way
through 2016 the AL is strangely bereft of True Number One Starters.
In the AL East
the reason is, perhaps, that Boston, Baltimore and
Toronto all have great hitting clubs and are bashing
around the respective pitching staffs. Add in Detroit and
Texas and that might be a reason why raw pitching numbers are
high in the AL.
Toronto was counting
on Stroman to be their Ace, but he has been coughing up way
too many runs. Yeah, I know he's little and cute and game and all
that but they hit him like a red-headed step child. He ranks 92 in
baseball (the pitchers are ranked by ERA only) with a 5.23 ERA and a
1.38 WHIP. Instead, Marco Estrada (2.70/0.97) has been their
best, but he has a Strikeout to Walk ration (87/33) much lower than
the classical definition of an ACE. Most true Aces strikeout at least
three times as many as they walk. Along with Sanchez and Happ,
the Jays have 3 guys in the top 40 of baseball, which is better than
anybody else in the East.
Boston thought they
had their Ace when they got David Price, but at 4.68 and 1.22
he lags far behind the field. His K to BB ratio is great at 110/24
but he's given up a lot of extra base hits in the clutch. Stephen
Wright has been their best starter at 2.18/1.14. Porcello
has been OK but still only makes the list at number 52 in baseball.
He does have a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio.
The best Baltimore
can do is Chris Tillman at number 37.
New York has Tanaka
at number 20 (3.01/1.03) which qualifies him as an Ace. Way down
the list are Eovaldi with a 4.95 ERA and Pineda with
5.51. With their weak offense, it's no wonder the Yanks haven't made
much noise yet. However, the Yankee's true strength has been in the
bullpen where Betances, Miller and
Chapman give them 3 closers in a row. When NY is ahead in the
game after 6 they have been almost unbeatable. That's why I think NY
is still in it... if they can get some offensive help for Carlos
Beltran.
Tampa Bay was
supposed to have great pitching, but Odorizzi is their best
and he only ranks 53. Archer is occasionally brilliant but his
ERA/WHIP is 4.70/1.43! Offensively, yesterday the Rays' batting order
featured 5 players with batting averages under .210. that explains
how they can be 4th in the majors in homers with 102 and
still be 27th in runs scored with 290! Enjoy last place
Tampa Bay!
Cleveland
leads the AL Central with 4 starters in the top 42: Tomlin,
Salazar, Bauer and
Kluber. None of them has an outstanding ERA, but Tomlin's K/BB is
55/7 and Kluber's is 103/22. That's impressive. Look for Cleveland to
stay near first place despite their rather modest offense. Kluber was
a definite Ace last year but he has fallen back. The others haven't
fully established Ace credentials but are still formidable.
Kansas City
has lousy starting pitching this year. With all their injuries added
in, it's a wonder they've managed to stay in second place. They
certainly don't have anybody remotely resembling an Ace.
Detroit has
Zimmerman and
Verlander...neither in the top 40 of baseball and both with ERAs
of 3.81. That doesn't qualify you as an Ace. It does qualify you for
fourth place in the division.
The Chicago Pale
Hose have a true Ace in Chris Sale: 5 to 1 K/BB, 2.80 ERA
0.99 WHIP. He's been lights out all year. But the Sox don't have
enough anywhere else to be a strong contender, despite their early
success this season.
Let's not even talk
about Minnesota.
Texas is
dominating the AL West with a balanced team. Cole Hamels
qualifies as an Ace, but barely. He has an ERA of 2.79 but a WHIP of
only 1.22. His K/BB ratio is under 3 to 1. A good pitcher for sure,
but not a dominator like Sale and a full dozen NL pitchers.
Houston has
climbed back into second place after a terrible start, but last
year's Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel, is ranked as the 96th
pitcher in baseball at 5.35/1.43. Doug Fister at 3.23/1.20 has
been their only decent starter. Their bullpen also sucks, so don't
expect the Astros to do much this season.
Seattle used
to count on Felix Hernandez year in and year out to be a
Bright Shining Ace in their rotation. Alas, the King. He's only
started 10 games this year with a WHIP of 1.22. His ERA is still
good, but he only strikes out 2 for every batter he walks now, after
7 consecutive years of over 3 to 1. His fastball has lost a lot.
Well, he lasted a lot longer than most power pitchers and he can
still help a team. It's just a shame that Seattle could never put a
team together behind him that might get him into the Playoffs.
Taijuan Walker
looked good early but has faded. Nobody else is close to the top
tier, pitching-wise.
Oakland's Sonny
Gray was just entering Ace-hood after last year, but an injury
postponed that graduation.
Los Angeles
has no Ace now that Garrett Richards is hurt.
So the AL has only 6
of the top 21 starters in baseball and only 3...Tanaka, Hamels and
Sales...who have truly established themselves as Aces.
Of course, some of
the numbers are skewed because of the DH in the AL. Al pitchers are
going to generally have higher ERAs and lower strikeouts than NL
pitchers. Still, it's hard not to conclude that in a pitching era,
the AL doesn't have starters who scare you like Kershaw, Arrieta,
Bumgarner, Scherzer, Strasburg and
Syndergaard. I think maybe only Chris Sale could break into that
list.
Right now, the NL
has several all-time pitchers.
Kershaw is the best,
with an ERA/WHIP of 1.57/0.67! His K/BB is a Greg Maddox, Pedro
Martinez-ish 141/7!!! To
get his ERA any lower, he'd have to throw about 10 shutouts in the
second half. (It's been done...look at Grover Cleveland Alexander
in 1916. 33 wins and 16
of them were shutouts! Actually old Pete had seven years in a row of
that kind of success. He led the league almost every year in wins,
innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts. Then he went off to World War One
and got gassed and shell-shocked in the trenches which brought on
epileptic seizures that he had for the rest of his life. Alex never
was right after that and drank too much but still won over 20 games
three more times and won another triple crown in 1920. He was the
hero of the 1926 World Series when, in the seventh game, he came out
of the Cardinal bullpen after winning the previous day and beat the
Ruth-led Yankees. Everybody thought he was hung over, but he was
actually having trouble with his seizures. He struck out Tony Lazzeri
with the bases loaded in one of the most dramatic moments in World
Series history. Lest we forget!)
Jake Arietta is
right there behind Kershaw at 1.74/0.98 107/35.
Bumgarner 1.99/1.02
122/29.
Syndergaard
2.08/0.99 110/12.
Jose Fernandez
2.31/1.00 136/29.
Even Julio
Teheran, laboring in relative anonymity down in hapless Atlanta,
has a line of 2.46/0.89
99/24. That's pretty
good, and probably why the Red Sox are offering up some of their top
prospects to Atlanta in trade talks for Julio.
In NL news I
guess the big story is still Chicago in first place in the
Central. However, I discern a little complacency on the part
of the Cubbies. Everybody has been saying how great they are and I
think they might believe it. They've been having a lull while St.
Louis is winning. Bryant just hit 3 homers and 2 doubles against
the Reds which makes the Cubs fans even more relaxed. Price goeth
before the Fall!
Let's remember
something...these are the Cubs! Any damn thing can happen to knock
these poor jokers out of a pennant. (But not if that pitching staff
keeps producing. I expected Arietta and Lester (also pitching
like an Ace) to do well. Lackey has been strong too. But
Hammels? Where did he come from?)
If the Cubs trade
for bullpen help I think they can hold off the Ghost Demons of the
Past...goats and black cats and Bartmans and grounders through the
legs of Leon Durham...Oh hell...I gotta stop...I'm getting
feverish....
My pre-season
pick...the Pirates...have been flat all year. I even
successfully predicted that this would be the breakout year for their
young outfielders Marte and Polanco (they both should
make the All Star squad). Hasn't made a difference. They can't beat
good teams. They've lost almost every game to Chicago and St.
Louis. McCutcheon has slumped all year. Garrett
Cole has been hurt and the rest of the staff can't match up
with all those good starters the Cubs and Cards have. The everyday
players seem resigned to losing right now...they have no faith in
their starters. Closer Melancon has been really, really
good....but the Pirates are still below .500. So are they just going
to go gently into that Good Night? Give everybody up to Free Agency
and rebuild yet again? Pittsburgh deserves better.
Meanwhile..the
Cardinals lurk.
Over in the NL
East Washington and New York are figuring out how to tank
enough games to let the Miami Marlins catch up with them.
Yelitch and Ozuna
(.873 and .948 OPS
respectively) the Marlins young outfielders, have excelled.
The team is surging even without druggie Dee Gordon and with Stanton
not hitting. (Giancarlo is pulling off pitches...stepping into the
bucket as they say. I guess you'd bail out too if you kept
remembering a 95mph fastball sailing up into your face. I hope he
banishes the demons.)
Let's postpone the
coronation of Bryce Harper. He's hitting .259 with no power
the last month and a half. Pitchers stopped throwing fastballs to
him. (Wouldn't you?) and he can't seem to adjust. He's got the top
average hitter in baseball (Daniel Murphy) batting behind him
so can't blame that. They walked him for awhile and it messed with
his head.
The Mets? I
keep waiting for the next elbow to pop. I hope it doesn't
happen...I'm not a sadist. I just think those guys throw too hard
with funky deliveries and the manager leaves them in too long. They
wanted Syndergaard to come back on regular rest after his elbow got
tweaked for the second time this season. They wanted him to pitch
against the Nats. Stupid! Give the guy at least one turn off! He's
been so great this year. Why risk it? Meanwhile deGrom has
been a little off all year. (He's still at 2.67/1.12) Matz
(3.29/1.19) has been steady and the Ageless One...Bartolo
Colon... continues to be one of the most entertaining and
effective players in baseball. (2.86/1.17) Last year's Ace, Brian
Harvey (aka “The Dark Knight”...bet he cringes when he hears
that nickname now) has noodle-brained himself to a mark of 4.64/1.38.
So...the Mets still
have an outstanding staff, all things considered. Familia has
been lights out in the bullpen. So why do they seem so...ordinary?
Where's the spark? They need a Bud Harrelson type to get them
fired up.
Out West the
Giants have gone on a tear. The Dodgers kind of amble
along just behind...winning enough to make you crazy. Why don't they
go out and get some help for Kershaw besides Kazmir and
Maeda? They need more bullpen! Everybody can see it! They don't
seem to care if they win anything. They want to preserve their young
future stars. Sure, I get it. Good idea to preserve your future...but
not when you have the best pitcher in baseball right now in the
present. Plus productive hitters like Gonzalez and comers like
Seager. You can win now! Kershaw can't pitch like this
forever. Hardly anybody has even 5 great years in a row. Kersh is on
number 6.
Are we seeing
another King Felix scenario in Dodgertown?
It's been since 1988
Los Angeles!
Has anybody noticed
that the Diamondbacks are getting better? Goldy is
hitting now. This guy Lamb has added some power to the
lineup and Greinke is Greinke again. If only ol' Shelby
Miller hadn't robbed them blind on that disastrous trade with
Atlanta! Talk about coughing up furballs!
What? The Rockies
still haven't traded Cargo?
Hasta La Vista,
Baby!
*SPECIAL SOCCER
SALUTE: Iceland beats England 2-1...my Icelandic wife goes batshit!
If only I could get her to watch even ONE baseball game!
