MARCO’S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2022: QUICK PICKS
AL EAST:
1/TAMPA BAY RAYS...They aren’t very glamorous and they don’t have very much star power and they operate like a farm team for everybody else in the majors. They win because they are the smartest evaluators of talent . They always seem to win trades and they get the best out of their young pitchers before letting them go to another team.
The Rays lost Shane Baz and Corey Kluber early to injury...but they have six or seven other guys who can be starters...especially since their starters are handled like long relievers anyway. Their pitching staff has a lot of big young arms who can bring it 95 or better.
Their everyday lineup doesn’t seem impressive (like Boston’s or Toronto’s) until you realize that they have power all through the order plus good speed and excellent defense. And oh yeah...Wander Franco is already in the top five of MLB shortstops.
2/ TORONTO BLUE JAYS...a very good bet for a wild card team. Why won’t they finish first? They didn’t last year and they had three great hitters with career years. Guerrero, Bichette and Marcus Semien. Semien is gone to the Rangers after leading baseball in extra base hits. There is no replacement for that. Getting Matt Chapman from the Oakland A’s to play third is a nice addition, but Chappie is not going to lead the league in extra base hits. He batted .210 last season. Vlad Jr. hit 31 of his 48 taters in those band box minor league and Spring Training stadiums the Jays had to use for home fields last year. He hit 17 on the road...not bad but not Ruthian either. His slugging average was 200 points higher at home. The very definition of a player who got enormous help from his home park. But now they play back in the Acadian Driftwood.
The Jays also lost their best pitcher...2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. Kevin Gausman might be able to replace what Ray gave them but he’s been an underachiever. It’s extremely doubtful he can win the Cy Young. The rest of the starters are questionable. The bullpen is suspect.
The Jays are everybody’s sexy choice to win the East...I don’t see it. One thing in their favor...Canada doesn’t let anybody come play baseball in their country without being vaccinated. That means a lot of top stars won’t be in the lineup against the Rays in Canada.
3/BOSTON RED SOX...I see the Red Sox and the Yankees scrambling over the leftovers in the AL East. The Red Sox are pitching deficient. If Taylor Houck ups his game, Chris Sale comes back from his stressed rib fracture before June, Eovaldi can be his horse-like starting pitcher self and the bullpen can stay intact they have a chance to win. But please notice how long that list of “ifs” is.
The offense is great. Rafael Devers should contend for the MVP. Xavier Bogaerts and J.D Martinez are good for a hundred ribbies each. Bobby Dalbec could hit 35 long balls (while batting .205) to pep up the bottom of the batting order. If Trevor Story can hit in Fenway like he did in Coors (.296 average and .880 OPS) and get better on the road (he hit .203 last year with an OPS of .718) that’s the joker in the deck. If Trevor happens, the Sox win a wild card.
I wish the Sox could have coaxed Kyle Schwarber back to serve as DH in waiting during J.D.’s last season in Bean town. They could have really used that leftie power bat and Kyle was good for the clubhouse.
4/NEW YORK YANKEES...it’s embarrassing how the Yankee ass kissers ignore the Yankee’s problems and keep picking them to win the East, win the pennant, win the Series etc. Why? Because the Yankees haven’t won since 2009 and the New York fans thinks the Yankees are entitled to a couple of World Series victories per decade at the very least. Of course, that 2009 team hit 244 home runs, stole 111 bases and had eight starters with an OPS of over .850. They had four switch hitters, Jeter hitting .334, Sabathia and Petitte and Mariano etc etc. None of the starters missed significant time except for A Rod playing only 124 games and Posada getting some rest. Anyway...
...Welcome to 2022. The Yankees are not as good as the three teams I’ve listed above . Their bullpen is better than the Jays and the Red Sox, but not that much better. The Yankees have put together a team of former All Stars who are now injury prone to the max. Everywhere you look on their roster you see 30 game IL stays waiting to happen.
Aaron Judge is a great Yankee in the classic tradition of the team. After that they are scrambling. Giancarlo is a threat but can be pitched to. LeMahieu, Hicks, Gallo, Rizzo...they’ve all passed their sell-by dates. Former stars. The Yanks got rid of Gary Sanchez finally but they had to throw in Gio Urshela the Most Happy Fella to get Josh Donaldson from the Twinks. They will miss Gio...he played hard and didn’t get hurt so much. You can say the same about the former quality but not the latter in discussions pertaining to his replacement Donaldson. Josh is not what they needed. Another right handed hitter who strikes out a lot and gets injured frequently?
Pitching? They’ve got the right guys at the top...Gerrit Cole and Aroldis Chapman. Hard to improve on those two. But who is their second starter? Are they really counting on Severino? Nestor Cortes? Jamison Taillon with a broken ankle? And the bullpen thins out pretty much after Chad Green and Jonathon Loaisiga.
I predict the Yankees will not make the Big Dance this year. Aaron Boone will be fired by mid-season and GM Brian Cashman will go at the end of October. (Even with his recent missteps, I maintain that firing Cashman would be a mistake. Boone would have been gone last year if George Steinbrenner could have come back from the grave to do the honors.)
5/BALTIMORE ORIOLES...ahhh, the Orioles. How long has it been guys? Well, at least this year the Birds have a couple of players to watch. First up is outfielder Cedric Mullins...a 30/30 man and the first one of those in Oriole history. Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez struck out 14 per 9 innings in Double and Triple A. He has one of those fastballs. His battery mate could well be Adley Rutschman, the top catching prospect in the game and a sure thing to hear them talk. (He better be! The Orioles can’t afford a miss…)
AL CENTRAL:
1/CHICAGO WHITE SOX...it will be a minor miracle if the Sox don’t win the Central by at least ten games. They have the best offense in the league with the possible exception of Houston and Toronto. Luis Robert is due for a break out season. And he is well-supported by Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and every other great Cuban ballplayer short of Minnie Minoso. I saw the White Sox play in a Cactus League Spring game in March. They pounded the Rockies. The White Sox have sluggers like Andrew Vaughn, Squirmin Yermin Mercedes and Yoenis Cespedis’s little brother Yoelkis on their bench! Those are three 30 homer men right there and they barely have spots for them! And you ought to see Yoelkis throw! He nailed a fast runner trying for third on a line hit to right center. Yoelkis speared it in the gap as he ran to his left, then did a 180 and fired to third on a line. That throw never got over head level and that runner was oh so very, very OUT…
Anyway, I can see why Tony La Russa came back to manage this bunch. They have four really good starters in Giolito, Cease, Kopech and Lynn and a Cy Young winner in Dallas Keuchel as the Number 5.. Of course Lynn and Giolito are on the IL for awhile...what’s new? But they have depth. The bullpen is awesome with Kendall Graveman and leftie Aaron Bummer backing Liam Hendriks.
Mark your ballots and call your bookies...the White Sox are the Faves in the AL.
2/CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (now officially known as the “Guard Dogs”.)...their pitching is loaded with starters Bieber, Quantrill, Plesac, Civale and McKenzie and relief from Karinchak and Gose backing up the hardest thrower in MLB (until they get a final radar read on Hunter Greene of the Reds) Emmanuel Clase. (0.96 WHIP)
The offense is loaded wth Jose Ramirez and...and...and...well, Jose Ramirez!
Talk about a one man team! I guess you could include hit/average leader and shortstop Amed Rosario and on base first week phenom Steven Kwan. How about Franmil Reyes? Strikes out 32 % of the time...hits 30 homers...weighs 265...the very epitome of today’s model ballplayer.
The most interesting facet of the Guard Dogs’ attack is their team speed. They have 5 possible 20+ stolen base guys. If they went full-speed-tard like the Kansas City Royals or St. Louis Cardinals of old they might surprise a few people. The Go-Go Guard Dogs. We need a team like that.
3/KANSAS CITY ROYALS...speaking of the Royals, this team has 4 speed burners in Merrifield, Mondesi, Nicki Lopez and Michael Taylor. All established double figure steal guys. Put that together with Sal Perez who hit 48 bombs last year and should have finished 2nd in the MVP vote and favorite for Rookie of the Year Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals could contend for a wild card.
Of course, that depends on their shaky and oft-injured pitching staff holding up. Certainly not a safe bet. But leftie Kris Bubic looks promising and Carlos Hernandez brings it at 100mph. If Mike Minor’s shoulder solidifies I like the Royals chances.
4/MINNESOTA TWINS...I’m starting to warm up to the AL Central. You have the White Sox who are as strong as anybody plus rebuilds on the QT like KC and Detroit plus recent contenders like Cleveland and Minnesota who, with a little luck and good years from their stars could win 90 games. One way or the other the AL is going to be competitive for the wild cards this year.
The Twins scored a coup by picking up blushing bride free agent shortstop Carlos Correa. I guess Carlos didn’t want to hear the “Cheater! Cheater!” chorus at Yankee or Dodger Stadium. So he goes to Twinkie -ville.
Carlos is a deserving gold glove shortstop who only has two years in his career where he’s played in at least 120 games. So he goes to the Twin cities to join another highly regarded would be superstar who can’t stay healthy...Byron Buxton. That gives the Twins the top two Gold Gloves at two important positions. Which helps. Especially because the Twins undid all their defensive upgrading by going out and trading for Mr. Passed Ball of the MLB catching core, Scary Gary Sanchez. They also have to live with Jorge Polanco at second base. He’s a very bad fielder.
The offense is loaded with 5-7 25 dinger specialists plus hundreds and hundreds of strike outs.
Pitching? Minnesota’s Numero Uno starter is Dylan Bundy. That’s all you need to know.
5/DETROIT TIGERS...things are finally looking up for the Tigres. They won’t win anything this year, but they are bringing up young people who can play and in another two years Detroit will be Rock City once again.
The pitchers are Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and closer Gregory Soto. (the Tigers were smart enough to bring in Gold Glove catcher Tucker Barnhart from the Reds to help them.) The hitters are Javier Baez, Jeimer Candelario, Akil Badoo and rookie Spencer Torkelson. Look for Detroit to make a big jump...but it’s a tough division for them to finish higher than 4th or 5th in.
AL WEST:
1/HOUSTON ASTROS...they still can’t catch the Astros. The Angels, the Mariners, the A’s, the Rangers. All are trying to rebuild badly flawed ball clubs. Meanwhile, the Astros keep winning.
In two seasons the ‘Stros have lost George Springer and Carlos Correa. But they cultivated two hitting stars to take their place: Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker...MVP level players. Put those two guys in with the Astro core players Jose Altuve, Michael Bradley, Alex Bregman and batting champion Yuli Gurriel and you have a high grade All Star offense.
Like every other team, the pitching is vulnerable to injury. But if Verlander, McCullers and Framber Valdez hold up, the Astros will cruise. A bullpen with Ryan Pressley, Ryne Stanik and Hector Neris won’t hurt either.
2/LOS ANGELES ANGELS...this is a big if. I think that if Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and especially Shohei Ohtani can all appear in at least 130 games, the Angels will win a wild card spot. That means Ohtani has to be their Number 1 starter and still hit close to what he did in 2021. The Angels have some help with their young players Jared Walsh, Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell and Max Stassi.
It’s the pitching staff that needs to step up. Noah Syndergaard, Patrick Sandoval, Michael Lorenzen and Jose Suarez all have the tools to be winning starters. Raisel Iglesias is a shut down closer. Let’s take Trout and Ohtani... two great generational stars...to the Playoffs and Beyond!
3/SEATTLE MARINERS...the M’s are coming together. This year they’ll add Uber-Prospect Julio Rodriguez to a lineup with Jarred Kelenic, Ty France, and Mitch Haniger. That’s four guys with major sock potential. Let’s be magnanimous and add Funky Winker-bean to the list. He gets it done!
The Big Clue that the Mariners are expecting to go for it now and in the next few seasons is the acquisition of Robbie Ray from Toronto. That’s a Cy Young winner from 2021. That helps the young arms in that rotation immensely. Watch Logan Gilbert. He could be a Number One soon.
I wonder how much it hurts Seattle to be the team that has to travel the most miles of any in MLB every year. Can it possibly be a coincidence that this team has never made it to the World Series?
4/TEXAS RANGERS...have the Rangers shot themselves in the foot again? Have they just spent half a billion dollars on a fragile shortstop and a 31 year old coming off a career year? Have they repeated the mistake they made in 2001 when they bought a steroid-enhanced shortstop on a long term contract that left them with no money for any other players who could help them win?
Look at the Rangers roster and tell me what you think. Do you smell that whiff of ARod grapeshot still haunting the battlefields of Arlington? Notice also the barren desert that was once the Rangers’ Farm System.
5/OAKLAND ATHLETICS...why oh why can’t they let this team build a new ballpark in San Jose or Oakland or Nashville or somewhere that is accessible and attractive to fans? You know...baseball fans who spend money that you can buy players with?
We had a 90 day lockout and they still don’t have a viable team or a workable plan to make baseball work in Miami, in Tampa Bay, in Pittsburgh, or in Oakland. This can’t be good. Move it or lose it. Austin and San Antonio are in the top twenty population centers of America. Put a ballpark smack dab in the middle of those two burgeoning metropolises and play baseball in it.
Here’s another hint for you Mr. Commissioner….San Jose is number 5! If you build it they are ALREADY THERE!
Stop beating a dead horse.
Or do you like a team like Oakland tearing their team apart every six years like they are right now? Sell off the stars that brought the fans in the first place and build from scratch again and again? Same thing in Tampa, Miami and Pittsburgh and it looks like Cincinnati has joined the fun this year. Cleveland will probably give it one more year before depopulating their roster of good players. Franchise Suckage I call it. Somebody please recalibrate.
And I’ll take a couple of days to recalibrate and then I’ll be back with the NL predictions.
Harry Verderci
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