MARCO' S BASEBALL
BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: “YOUR TEAM HAS BEEN ECLIPSED!”
PART ONE:
TOTALITY
It's horrible. The
eclipse coursed diagonally across the United States and wherever it's
shadow fell, there another baseball team's fortunes collapsed!
If the eclipse is
total over your home park, you are doomed this season. (If you have
a domed stadium then you are doomed in your dome. Dome-doomed.) And
the closer your team was to the path of superstitious obliteration
symbolically represented by this astronomical phenomenon, the
stronger the negative effect.
Therefore: The
following teams can say goodbye to their playoff hopes …
Kansas City,
St. Louis, and Atlanta. Doom! Doom ! (And Atlanta was a
shoo-in, right?)
Seattle, Denver,
Chicago (both teams!) and Cincinnati? You're too
close...better make some last minute trades if you want to counteract
the Bad Juju.
You can't fight
Totality.
PART TWO: THE
FICKLE FINGER OF FORTUNE DEPARTMENT
You know what I
hate? I hate it when star baseball players get hurt right before the
stretch run for the Playoffs.
I want to see what
Yu Darvish could do for the Dodgers. The Yankees need a healthy
Tanaka. Boston likewise with David Price and Pomeranz. It looked like
Arenado might miss significant time with Colorado but he healed up
fast from a pitch on his wrist. I don't want Houston to play without
Correa….I want Carlos pounding the ball right behind Jose Altuve.
Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana and Andrew Miller are all recent
injuries for Cleveland, a franchise that deserves a break if any team
ever has.
But the worst hit
was on the Washington Nationals.
The Nats could have
had this lineup all season if it wasn't for their rotten, rotten
injury luck:
Tre Turner ss
Adam Eaton lf
Bryce Harper rf
Ryan Zimmerman 1b
Danny Murphy 2b
Anthony Rendon 3b
Matt Weiters c
Michael Taylor cf
….and Jason Werth
to platoon in the outfield or DH in American League parks.
They have four guys
currently in the top fifteen for batting average, on-base, slugging,
OPS...and who knows what kind of stats Eaton would have put up with
this lineup batting him in. He'd of probably scored 130 runs this
year.
I wanted to see them
go up against Kershaw and the Dodgers again with that lineup. How
about against Houston with their powerful hitters? It would have been
fun...but...
Right now Harper has
a bad knee (hurt when he slipped on a wet Danger-base, which I have
damned here often...MLB has listened and is considering ideas for
soft bases! Memory foam, MLB!)
Werth Might be
back from a broken foot in September. Trea Turner Might be
back in September from a broken wrist. Eaton is out for the season
with a torn ACL (yep...stepped on a base and wham!)
No, I'm not a Nats
fan. But that lineup could have been one of the best since the Big
Red Machine or the mid 90's Cleveland Indians. I regret not seeing
them in the Playoffs at their best. They're still formidible but if
they had remained uninjured and their hitters had delivered at the
level they had maintained that would have been something.
PART THREE:
BLUEPRINT FOR SUCCESS
Almost all good MLB
teams have a few basic things in common. “Good” being defined as
teams that play at least .500 ball and are therefore Playoff
contenders. Let me sketch it out briefly:
Offensively a
good team will have…
1/a good leadoff
man
2/at least two
good hitters (for average) in the top 5 of the batting order
3/at least two
power hitters in the middle of the order
Defensively…
1/average or
better fielders at catcher, short, second base and center field
(not just competent...every team in baseball has competent fielders
at these positions. If you can't play shortstop they move you or let
you go. Maybe if you're a super hitter like Danny Murphy of the Nats
you can stay at second base even if you are Manos de Piedra
(yep...that's you Danny) as a fielder. Bad catchers don't stay at
catcher except in emergencies...good catchers stay in the lineup even
if they hit .190)
2/an Ace
starter and at least one other better than average starter
3/a good closer
and at least 3 other competent relievers with a good mix of righties
and lefties
Leadership…
1/an
inspirational team leader
2/at least one
gritty, hard-nosed player who leads by example
3/a very large
Beast-who-Walks to back everybody up in a rhubarb
4/A Team Clown
to keep everybody loose
Now, a World Series
contender ups the ante at two or more of these slots. Offensively,
that leadoff hitter might also lead the league in steals. Maybe one
of those average hitters is somebody like Stan Musial or Wade Boggs.
Maybe they have good hitters in the top 7 spots of the order like
Washington did before the injuries. Instead of two power hitters in
the middle of the lineup they have 4 and one of them is a Giancarlo
Stanton who hits 50+ bombs. (sidenote: Mattingly's decision to bat
Stanton second in the order just behind Gordon and in front of Yelich
and Ozuna was a stroke of genius.)
Defensively, one of
those up the middle fielders is a gold Glove finalist. One Ozzie
Smith or Yadi Molina
type can make a hell of a difference to a team. Maybe your Ace is a
Kershaw, a Scherzer or a Sale. Your closer is Mariano, say...or you
have 3 guys in a row like the Nasty Boys of the 1990 Reds.
What if your
inspirational team leader is Cal Ripken, Willie Stargell or David
Ortiz? And your hard-nose is Pete Rose. Think Pete didn't set an
example to every team he was ever on? What was it like to have Don
Baylor come out to a melee in the infield and just stand there
looking at the other team?
Team clowns are
important too. They help even out the stress. Remember the stories
about Rizzo doing his little naked cheerleading dance on the table in
the Cub's locker room?
As an example, I
looked at the 1975 Red Sox (cause I know them pretty well )
Red Sox:
leadoff: a problem
spot all year. Juan Beniquez was leadoff for opening day. He got hurt
and they tried Bernie Carbo and Cecil Cooper.
good average hitters
in Lynn and Rice and Cooper.
Power from Lynn,
Yaz, Rice and Evans. Pretty impressive. A deep lineup.
Better than average
up the middle with Lynn in center winning the gold glove that year.
Fisk, Burleson, Evans, Yaz and even Beniquez all won gold gloves in
their careers. I guess the Sox had pretty good D!
Ace: Luis Tiant with
Bill Lee, Rick Wise and Reggie Cleveland all pitching well behind
him.
Closer and pen: Dick
Drago closed with Roger Moret and Jim Burton the key lefties.
Underwhelming.
Inspirational team
leader: Yaz...the Hall of Famer
Grit-Meister:
Carlton Fisk, Yaz
Beast who Walks: Jim
Rice
Clown: Tiant and
Bill Lee
That's just one
example, but if you study your history, you'll find that this
blueprint holds true for the very top teams. When a team doesn't
match up with the classic format, it's usually because either their
ballpark changes the nature of the game for that team or else they
are so overwhelmingly good in one or two categories that it doesn't
matter what else they have. Examples:
The L.A. Dodgers of
the 1960s were a terrible hitting team because of Dodger Stadium.
They made up for it with great starting pitchers and a running game.
The Kansas City
Royals of the last few years had no big hitting stats.
(Again...ballpark) They won with defense, speed and a lights out
bullpen.
Now let's look at
the main contenders this season:
Boston Red Sox:
They can't bat Betts
leadoff and in the third slot at the same time, can they? So they're
confused at leadoff.
They have Pedroia,
Betts, Benitendi and Bogaerts all hitting for pretty high average and
that's their strength. Much less power than a normal winner and that
will haunt them when they face top Aces and can't string together 4
or 5 hits for rallies anymore. That's when you need a
walk-and-a-homer type offense to beat those power pitchers.
Their defense is
awesome in the outfield...Jackie Bradley Jr. is one of the very best
in center and Betts likewise in right. Bogaerts and Pedroia both
above average at the keystone, and solid defensive catchers.
Sale the consummate
Ace but injuries have weakened the other starting slots. If Porcello
can keep it together they'll have a much better chance. The bullpen
is weak except for closer, where Kimbrel has been awesome. They don't
have good lefties to neutralize the best leftie hitters.
Leader: Pedroia
Grit: Pedroia
Beast: nobody now
that Papi is gone. Hanley Ramirez has the body but not the mindset of
an “enforcer”.
Clown: Betts...his
name is Mookie for God's sakes.
The Sox have the
Blueprint in high average hitters, defense, Ace and Closer. They
have a good leader in Pedroia when he's healthy. I think they're
lacking at leadoff, power bats (unless that Devers kid keeps hitting
taters) starters after Sale and the bullpen in general. No good
leftie! Also, when Pedroia is out they miss his leadership with such
a young team.
Cleveland
Indians:
Lindor has been
leading off. His OBP is low but he has some pop and can run. He
should probably hit second. Brantley and Ramirez have hit for average
this year. Encarnacion, Santana and recent acquisition Jay Bruce are
all good power bats. They are pretty strong 1 through 6 in the order.
Defense great with
Lindor and Zimmer at short and center. Kluber is a true Ace and
Carrasco a great number 2. Bullpen a major strength...especially when
Andrew Miller is healthy.
Leader: Lindor,
Kluber
Grit: Jason Kipnis
Beast: Encarnacion.
He's only 6'1” 230 lbs but he's solid and strong and just looks
formidable. Andrew Miller is 6'7” put pitchers are notorious
wussies in fights 'cause they're afraid of breaking their hands or
hurting their shoulders or getting a hangnail. Don't count on a
pitcher in a fight. (Except for Nolan Ryan...last of the Western
Heroes!)
Clown: Lonnie
Chisenhall...he drove the bus to the hotel after a clutch hit.
I think the Indians
exceed the Blueprint norms in every department except maybe leadoff.
Houston Astros:
Leadoff: Springer.
Not your typical leadoff guy. But he's got 28 homers, 79 ribbies and
his on-base is ..378. Who's gonna complain about that?
Hitting: Altuve and
Correa both hit for average and Jose will likely win the title.
Power? 11 guys are going to hit close to twenty homers!!! Strongest
lineup 1 through 9 in the AL. Only Washington at full strength tops
them in MLB.
Defense: great
keystone combo in Correa and Altuve. Strong outfield too. They need
McCann back at catcher. Keuchel is the Ace but his injury bothers me.
It lasted a long, long time and he's just throwing well again. I
don't think Brad Peacock or Charlie Morton scare anybody as a number
2 starter and McCullers is on the DL. McHugh just off. Trouble!
Bullpen is flat out bad after Ken Giles and Chris Devenski.
Leader: Altuve
Grit: Altuve
Beast: Evan Gattis
Clown: Altuve
I'd say Altuve is
the key to their success in so many ways. (He's also stolen 26 bases)
What a player! But trouble with the pitching staff could undo the
Astros.
Washington
Nationals: (I kind of covered them above)
Leadoff: Trea Turner
when healthy... otherwise by committee
Hitting: 5 good ones
as mentioned above. Four good power bats too. Deep and dangerous
lineup.
Defense: without
Turner at short they are suspect up the middle. A great Ace in
Scherzer and backup in Strassburg (if healthy) and Gio Gonzalez.
Recent additions Blanton, Kinzler and Doolittle give them something
to work with in the bullpen but they have a lot to prove there.
Leader: Zimmerman
Grit: Murphy and
Harper
Beast: Matt Weiters
and Werth
Clown: Scherzer (the
Nats are a serious team with a lots of egos and headcases. Scherzer
has s screw loose and likes to get strange liquids poured over his
head after throwing no-hitters. Manager Dusty Baker is also pretty
loose)
Their hitting and
their Ace make up for their deficiencies in the Bullpen and in the
infield. If they get healthy for the playoffs I rank them number two
likeliest to win it all.
Chicago
Adorables:
Leadoff: I think
this and the loss of retired catcher David Ross jinxed the Cubbies
this season. They lost their leadoff man in Dexter Fowler and never
replaced him. They've tried four or five players there and nobody
fits. Lester hasn't been the same pitcher without Ross.
Hitters: the Cubs
don't have any high batting average hitters. Bryant (.289) is getting
hotter after the break, but Zobrist is still batting .226. Schwarber?
Don't ask! They have a lot of home run potential in Bryant, Rizzo,
Baez, Ian Happ, Wilson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. This also gives
them a more dangerous lineup than their batting averages and on base
percentages would indicate.
Defense: one of the
best infields in baseball and good enough elsewhere. But...shortstop
Addison Russell has the dreaded plantar fascitis. If Contreras stays
hurt, they need help at catcher. (They traded for Avila from the
Tigers but he's been injured a lot too.) Their Ace at this time is
Arrieta. Lester got hurt and Stork Hendricks just got back from the
DL. Lackey too. They traded for Jose Quintana who might save them in
the rotation. Closer Wade Davis has serviceable but not stellar
backup in the pen.
Leader: Rizzo
Grit: Heyward….the
man came back from a fastball to the face and saved them in the
Series by quietly reminding them how good they were during a rain
delay movie moment.
Beast: He's a nice
beast. He's a cute beast. But he's scary strong. Kris Bryant!
Clown: Rizzo and
Manager Joe Maddon
The Adorables are
hard to figure this year. They've had the best record in baseball
since the All Star break, so maybe they've shaken off the cobwebs.
However, they only lead the Central by 2 games.
They are truly
messed up at leadoff and the offense has been bad all year despite
their ability to hit four-baggers. Despite their troubles at short
and catcher the Cubs are a top defensive team. Arrieta is looking
good in the second half and Wade Davis was an All Star. I think their
pitching is still well above average. Also, the Cubs have that
fighting spirit they earned in their storybook 2016 season. They are
still a team to contend with...but they are a team with holes.
Los Angeles
Dodgers:
The team that forgot
how to lose. What a resurrection! From a bunch of headcases spitting
at each other behind their backs they've become a loose bunch of
winners under the Love Guru Dave Roberts. (Exhibit number 1….Yasiel
Puig) They have a perfect mix of young lions and old gunners and
deep, deep pitching. They are 55-14 since June 1!
Leadoff: Chris
Taylor has been a find.
Hitters: Justin
Turner .355, Corey Seager .300, Taylor .311.
Those three plus
Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez (now that Joc
Peterson is sent down) and Yasiel Puig give them at least a seven
stud lineup every night. 6 guys will hit over 20 dings.
Defense: plenty good
up the middle and Puig has one of the best arms ever in right. When
Kershaw gets back they have him, Alex Wood, Maeda and now Yu Darvish
to start. The Dodgers are loaded.
Kenly Jansen is one
of the best closers and Luis Avilan is the key leftie in the pen.
They can use their extra starters out there too.
Leader: Dave Roberts
Grit: Chase Utley
Beast: Kenley Jansen
is 6'5” 275 if he can get from the bullpen to the infield fast
enough to clobber somebody. He's a pitcher but he's also Dutch and he
just looks like he could break you in half.
Clown: It was Scott
Van Slyke for years but they traded him. I bet now they're sorry. I
guess Puig has to be the clown now.
The Dodgers are
Destiny's Darlings this year. They have no real holes and their many
strengths are extra strong. They are the run away favorites to win it
all this year. I give Washington a slugger's chance if Scherzer rises
to the occasion, but I think the Dodgers will be facing the Cleveland
Indians in the 2017 World Series.
LAST LICKS:
There was a great
“This Day in Baseball” item in today's Austin paper. I quote:
“1886: Cincinnati
outfielder Abner Powell was literally brought down by the dog days of
summer. Chicken Wolf of the Louisville Colonels hit a deep drive and
Powell took off after it, joined by a dog that had been sleeping by
the outfield fence. The dog bit Powell's leg before the outfielder
could get to the ball and wouldn't let go as Wolf scored on a
game-winning inside-the-park homer.”
Could we please get
New York to take a look at the replay on that?
