MARCO’S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2024: AL DELAYED
Sorry about the delay in getting the AL predictions out so you could clean up on your online gambling. I lucked out and got cast in a TV series. Only problem is I’ve been driving to and from Ft. Worth in order to be on the set early in the day and I don’t have a computer with me.
However, I have discovered that my predictions can be greatly improved by watching the games first and THEN predicting the winners. The other way is hard. I will present my picks made just before the season started and then my May 1 reading of the situation.
What’s the Buzz this year? Last year it was clocks on the pitchers. This year it’s scalpels on the pitchers. PITCHING FRAGILITY.
I picked up a Fantasy baseball magazine and was reading their countdown of the best starters in baseball going into 2023. Aces all of course. But then I noticed that 10 out of the first 20 starters in the Majors were on the IL with arm damage. Guys like Santander, Cole, Spender Strider, Ohtani, DeGrom and Shane Beiber.
There are..right now...63 major league pitchers on the injured list with elbow or forearm trouble. That’s just before May 1. If that keeps up this year you could have over 300 pitchers rehabbing after Tommy John surgery. And it’s not the fill ins getting hurt. It’s the very top echelon of hurlers: the guys who throw 100 and break sliders two feet. Muscles have gotten bigger over the last 150 baseball years. But ligaments have stayed the same. Over-torqued. It’s a big problem that doesn’t seem helped by more days off. It’s just too much throwing at maximum velocity and maximum spin. Surgery is just an accepted part of being a pitcher.
The early days of baseball Spring...many many injuries. Most of the focus has been on the Dodgers in the NL and the Yankees in the AL. Both teams had good to excellent starts but have drifted.
The Yankees got all jazzed up about Juan Soto but they got ahead of themselves. Aaron Judge is in a deep slump with only 3 homers and that offense needs more from Judge. Luckily the Yankee pitching has been great seeing as how they lost most of their starters early. The injury bug...always a factor when you deal with the New York clubs.
(Don’t ask me why unless you want another crazy shoot-from-the-hip theory of muscles and ligaments.) Soto is their offense so far.
Their season hinges on the return of Gerrit Cole in some kind of mid season form. That’s a tough one. Rodon has come back strong but he is like ...the most injury prone pitcher north of Jacob deGrom.
My pre-season picks for the AL EAST:
1/Baltimore
2/New York
3/Boston
4/Toronto
5/ Tampa
Baltimore’s pitching is not that strong except for Corbin Burnes but they have a scary offense with all those young strongboys and they have plenty of speed if they need to go deep cover as a steals team.
The standings are close to the same as my Nostrodamas-y soothsaying illustrated above. New York is just ahead of Baltimore and pitching better.
I figured somebody in Boston knew something about all these young position players being just a little bit good. And all these young arms on the mound. They are looking fairly strong if they can weather their truly rancid luck in losing Trevor Story at short. And Casas at first. And Bello and Pivetta on the bump. Born Under a Bad Sign...but I still rate the Red Sox good for third. Especially if Tyler O’Neil keeps hitting like he has been!
Toronto is a paper tiger. Vladdy Guerrero is just not swinging at good pitches. The Jays are batting .226 as a team with little power.
Tampa can’t hit and can’t pitch. This might be a limp through the season for the Rays. How long can you go on, trading your best players on a yearly basis?
AL CENTRAL:
My picks pre-season:
1/Twins
2/Guard Dogs
3/Kansas City Royals
4/Detroit Tigers
5/ Chicago White Sox
The Twins looked good in comparison to the other projects in this Division but I see now that I was wrong wrong wrongie wrong wrong. Outside of Ryan Jeffers at DH and Eddie Julien at second the Twinks have no offense. Byron Buxton has 1 homer and 1 steal and an on base percentage of .283. And yes, Carlos Correa is already hurt.
The team I should have picked for first...the Cleveland Guard Dogs.
I liked them for first last year too and they failed miserably. They had like a minus minus offense. I figured they’d trade for another hitter to help Jose Ramirez. Of course they didn’t. Nor did the Clevelanders spring for any major players in the off season. They just loaded up their gloves and their spikes and came to play some old time baseball. Josh Naylor is 280 pounds of clutch hitting. Stephen Kwan is on pace to get 240 base hits for the season. And Jose Ramirez is doing what he always does...play winning baseball and coming through for his team. They lost Shane Bieber and barely noticed...going 19-9 so far.
Kansas City Royals… Sal Perez, Bobby Witt Jr. and a hand full of spare change. That’s the Royals lineup. They are hitting enough homers to keep them in ballgames but they really have no recourse if they don’t have their two big guns in the lineup. Literally everybody else is hitting under .230. somehow they are 17-13. I guess it’s because the Royals pitching staff has somehow avoided disaster. Both starters and relievers are playing competitive, clutch baseball. It’s nice to see the Royals stepping up for a change.
Riley Greene on offense. Tarik Skubal on the mound. That’s the story of the Tigres this year. And Tarik should really throw a screwball so we could say “...another screwball from Skubal….” How are the Tigers 16-12? It’s a mystery.
The Chicago White Sox are 6-23 and 14 games back BEFORE MAY 1. They are hitting .208 as a team. We knew it was going to be bad but when they traded Dylan Cease they were prepping us for a hugely painful season. Their three best players...Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada and Luis Roberts all went down with injuries right on schedule. Only Eloy has made it back so far. This may be one of the least competitive teams in the history of baseball. They could lose 130 games.
AL WEST:
April Prediction:
1/Houston
2/ Texas
3/ Seattle
4/ Los Angeles Angels
5/ Oakland
The shocker of the year so far is the hole that the Astros have dug looking more and more like an early season grave. They are at 9-19 right now. Unless they reverse that percentage by mid June they are toast. I think the Astros have played too many seasons in a row with playoffs added and trips to Mexico etc. They look tired. Altuve, Tucker and Alvarez are still hitting well and Pena is too, but Abreu at first and Bregman at third look helpless right now.
And yes, they miss Dusty Baker. Houston is short in the rotation. Too many injuries. And their two closers...Hader and Pressley...have been battered.
Guess who picked them to finish first in the Division? I had them and the Rangers going at each other like Wolverine and Sabertooth in an X-Men sequel. But a no hitter by Blanco didn’t wake them up. A trip to the Happy Hitting Hunting Grounds of mile high Mexico didn’t dent their torpor and Justin Verlander’s latest re-run failed to ignite the passions of H-town.
Houston has nine games coming against Cleveland, Seattle and the New York Yankees. This stretch should tell the tale. If they go 3-6 or something the Astros are done.
The Rangers, on the other hand, have been hitting well and pitching well but are still barely over .500. The thing is...nobody is hot in the American League. Bochy can leave the Strangers on cruise control and they can sneak up on everybody as the summer waxes. Keep your eye on Adolis Garcia. He’s really crushing the ball and he’s not usually this good this early. Texas is a firm favorite from here on out.
Not Seattle. The perennial also rans are making strides. They’ve got good hitters like JRod and Mitch Hanniger and Cal Raleigh and their pitching staff is as deep as anybody’s. And yet, even with the early season zombie march of the Texas teams, the Mariners are only 16-13. First place yes… but it feels like they should be running away from the other teams in the West.
Los Angeles Angels: 11-18. That’s about what I expected from the Ohtani-less Angels. Joe Adell has made a nice comeback and Mike Trout is stealing bases again and hitting monster fish-bombs over the centerfield walls of America. Even in a slump Troutie has a high OPS. Long may he prosper!
Oakland Athletics team batting average: .206
The A’s are going to Sacramento for three years while they build a park in Las Vegas. Why Sacramento and not San Jose? Not cosmopolitan enough in San Jose?
San Jose has so many little burgs around it...Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Redwood City, Los Altos, Mountain View, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, over to the coast to pick up support from the Santa Cruz strip. All of this with no kind of major league presence. All of this within half the distance of Sacramento from their loyal fans in Oakland and the rest of the bay area.
Sure, if you live in Menlo Park like I once did and you want to go to a ballgame you have to drive a little bit. You think it’s any further than going to Oakland or San Francisco to see a game? Nobody is talking about San Jose because the Giants keep saying that they have fan support in San Jose and the peninsula. But what’s good for the Giants isn’t necessarily good for baseball.
My May 1 picks:
NL East: Atlanta/ Philly/ New York/ Miami/ Washington
NL Central: Cincinnati/ Chicago/ Pittsburgh/ Milwaukee/ St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles/ Arizona/ San Diego/ San Francisco/ Colorado
AL East: Baltimore/ New York/ Boston/ Toronto/ Tampa
AL Central: Cleveland/ Minnesota/ Kansas City/ Detroit/ Chicago
AL West: Texas/ Seattle/ Houston/ Los Angeles/ Oakland
NL Wild Cards: Philly/ Chicago/ Arizona
AL Wild Cards: New York/ Boston/ Seattle
Adios!
