MARCO'S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: PLAYOFFS—HERE'S HOPING
...for
some semblance of a worthy baseball series contested with Spirit,
Sportsmanship and Competitive Fire. I yearn for an exciting League
Championship Series where both teams play well. I want Pete Rose
coming up to the plate in the tenth inning and saying to the
opposition's catcher Carlton Fisk...”Man, this is some kind
of game! This is the best game I've ever been in, don't you think it
is?” (1975 Series between Reds and Sox)
I
don't want to watch the Colorado Rockies score 2 runs in one
inning of one playoff game and never score again as they are
eliminated in three straight by the Milwaukee Brewers. I find
it disheartening to watch MVP contenders like Nolan Arenado
flail helplessly at every slider in the dirt that a Brewers pitcher
cared to throw him...every time a man was on base for him there was
Nolan stomping back to the dugout with another “K” on his
scorecard.
Nolan
hit .188 for the series.
And
he had plenty of company. The Rockies hitters....Desmond .118,
Carlos Gonzalez .167,
Blackmon
.133, LeMahieu .200. MVP candidate Story hit a blistering
.278. The team went 1 for 17 with men on base in the three games. The
Rockies were so utterly pathetic on offense that they never even
bothered to use their best pitcher, Freeland, in the whole
series.
The
Dodgers-Braves series was also atrocious, even though the
Braves won at least one game when Ronald Acuna, The Young
Apollo, hit himself a Grand Salami. But that didn't make the series
competitive. L.A. cut a Sherman-like swath through Georgia. But
that's okay, the Bravos are young and hungry and they showed real
promise as they won the NL East. They'll be back.
Stros-Indians?
Are you kidding? I really thought the Indians were a good team, but
this 3 game sweep by Houston proved me wrong. Ramirez was
terrible in last year's playoffs and he was terrible again this year.
1 for 11. Everybody else was bad too. (Lindor did hit a couple
of homers) The defense sucked. The pitching was spotty. Bauer came
off an effective season and made errors that killed the Indians in
Game 3.
Mainly,
the Astros starting pitching just seemed to drain the lifeblood right
out of the Clevelanders, as if Verlander and
Garrett Cole were Gothic vampires and the Indians were Miss Lucy.
After the first two games in Houston, the Cleveland team had very
little fight left.
So
that leaves us one Divisional Playoff Series that was worth keeping
the tele on for: Boston-New York.
This
whole series seemed to turn on one innocuous moment. The Red Sox had
taken Game 1,as expected, behind their One True Ace Chris Sale.
Then David Price came out and did his usual 'Please sir, can I
have another?' act with his Dungeon Masters, the Yankee hitters. The
Boston bullpen followed the script and 4 homers later the Yankees had
a victory that wrested home field advantage away from the Sox.
After
the game, though, the innocuous moment took place in the clubhouse,
when Aaron Judge, the Bunyanesque Yankee slugger, walked past
the Red Sox locker room with a boom box playing “New York, New
York” at a notable volume.
Bad
idea. It's called 'poking the cage' and it was just the thing to
focus the Beantowners and motivate them. Game 3 back in New York:
16-1 Sox. The vaunted New York bullpen got cremated. They wound up
pitching backup catcher Romine who allowed Brock Holt
to complete the cycle with a cheap Yankee Stadium liner just over the
short right field fence.
So
Game 4. If the Yanks won, they'd go back to Fenway for a rematch with
Sale. Sabathia starts the game and gets into trouble and
somehow manager Aaron Boone loses the phone number of the
bullpen and can't get another pitcher in there fast enough to prevent
the Red Sox from scoring 3. Greatest bullpen in history and they
can't bring in one of those 98mph arms to save the series?
The
Red Sox don't have a great bullpen. So they feel lucky to get great
innings from Matt Barnes and
Ryan Brasier. I'm not sure why they took Brasier out after only
one inning...he looked sharp. But Alex Cora has other ideas.
Every
move Cora made in this series seemed to turn golden for the Sox. He
platooned his right and leftie hitters even after Holt hit for that
cycle. But now he plays a trump card; he brings in Sale to pitch the
8th.
This
was risky because if they lost this Game 4 they were depending on
Sale to start the rubber game back at Fenway two days later. But,
like I said, Boston has a lousy bullpen...they don't really have
dependable arms to bridge from the starters to their closer Craig
Kimbrel. So Cora risks using Sale to bridge and Sale comes
through. In fact he carves the Yankees so expertly that I'm hoping
Cora will bring Sale out for another inning, much as the Giants
used Bumgarner to beat the Royals in 2014. But
Bumgarner was pitching relief in the 7th game of the
Series...it was all going to be over. Boston has to have Sale fresh
for a possible Game 5. So out he comes and in comes Kimbrel for the
ninth. Red Sox lead 4-1.
I
never thought I'd miss Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams. You
remember the hotheaded leftie closer with the good sense of humor who
could come in throwing gas but walk the bases full every time? He
gave up the walk off homer to Joe Carter in the '93 series
between winner Toronto and Mitch's Phillies. Watching
him pitch was like Chinese Water torture...the drip drip drip of yet
another 3-0 count.
Kimbrel
is throwing 100...but the balls are just all over the place. Catcher
Vasquez saves the game several times blocking balls that are
headed for the Durham bull if he'd been behind the dugout. The ball
boy is in jeopardy. Judge walks on 4 straight. They play Kinsler
over the bag at second but Kimbrel comes inside and Gregorius singles
into right. Tying run at the plate. That didn't take long. Stanton
strikes out because that's what he does. The Yankees are hungry like
the wolf for the big dramatic homer that will affirm their dominance.
Voit walks to load the bases. Walker is up and Kimbrel
tries to throw a slider. Of course it hits Walker on the foot about
two feet inside. A run in. 4-2. Bases still loaded.
Here's
the crucial at bat. Cora has nobody in the bullpen; it's Kimbrel
until death and death is gaining.
Sancho
Panza Sanchez, the guy who hit two homers in Game 2, is up. He
wants to hit another one so bad and he probably will, since Kimbrel
can't control his pitches and is going to serve up a bunny over the
plate sooner or later. But Sanchez is playing bad baseball. A homer
wins the game for the Yanks and wouldn't he look special trotting
around the bases like the Babe in olden days, doffing his cap
to the adoring crowd?
But
what he needs to do is hit a single. That would score the tying run
from second base. Sanchez takes a tremendous hack on strike 2 and
then hits a fly ball to left for a sac fly.
Tying
run still on second and the Red Sox are close to the edge of another
epic Bostonian nightmare collapse that fans can shudder to for the
rest of their lives. I'm having PTSD Deja Voodoo all over again.
On
Kimbrel's 30th pitch of the inning, rookie Gleyber
Torres bounces a grounder to third. Nunez makes a great
pickup and throws to first as the tying run approaches home. It's a
bad throw, in the dirt and offline, but Steve Pierce makes the
play of the series and dives into the dirt to glove the throw while
just maintaining foot contact with first base. Review confirms: yer
out!
Everybody
mobs Kimbrel as if he's done something good. I betcha 40 New
Englanders lie dead on the floor after watching him pitch that
inning.
CONFIDENT
PREDICTION:
The
Brewers will win Game 1 of their Playoff series with the Dodgers!
Ok,
you got me. My computer went haywire last night and I couldn't finish
this screed. By the time my grandson could fix it (he can run it
remotely to see what hell I have wrought on his precious technology)
Game 1 was in the books for the Crew. Good game too except for
Yasmani Grandal, the Dodger's catcher, making 2 errors and 2
passed balls in the first 3 innings! Kershaw took the loss but
that one was on Grandal.
I'm
picking Milwaukee to win this series because:
1/home
field advantage
2/hottest
team going into playoffs
3/hottest
hitter going into playoffs is Yelich
4/Milwaukee
never gets to win
5/that
incredible bullpen
Let's
talk about that bullpen. The Brewers are trying out that new-fangled
theory that instead of depending on a starter to give you 6 or 7
innings you can just put somebody out there for an inning or two and
then have a long parade of one inning relief pitchers finish off the
other team. Stats say that hitters do much better against pitchers
that they've seen more and the third time through the lineup those
starters can't fool them as much.
The
Tampa Bay Rays went all in on this theory and tested it out by
having their closer start the game and pitch one or two innings and
then keep fresh arms out there for the whole game. They had the best
second half record in the AL.
The
problem with this new theory is that if you do it every game you burn
out your whole staff. Even relief pitchers can't go hard for an
inning a game day after day. With the 25 man roster you just can't
maintain the plan. What you need is 6 two inning type pitchers.
Andrew Miller of the Indians. Josh Hader of the
Brewers. Then you can rotate them and rest the other three. With your
other 6 guys you take care of the extra inning games and the tough
innings against the middle of the order types.
One
true thing about this revolutionary idea is that relievers are used
to coming in cold and facing the best hitters on the other team.
Starters often need a couple of innings to get the feel of the mound
etc. I mean, pitching is a question of nano-centimeters between a
perfect pitch on the corner and a bunny into the seats. Relievers
just throw hard. Control is not their specialty. Most of them have a
blazing fastball or a wipe-out slider. So the top of the order
doesn't get that starter when he may be vulnerable, before he finds
his range. They get some crazy closer throwing 98. Then they bring
the 'starter' in to face the 7-8-9 hitters to get him acclimated
before he has to face the meat of the order.
The
Dodgers are the old school team. Heroic starters like Clayton Kershaw
who can discombobulate the other team through 8 or 9 innings. Thing
is, there are only twelve pitchers...we call them Aces...as good as
Kershaw in the whole MLB. We have starters who are great one day,
suckee the next. Only one third of the teams have a true Ace.
Kershaw, Bumgarner, Nola, Scherzer, DeGrom, Syndergaard,
Strassburg, Lester...that's pretty much it for the NL.
Sale,
Verlander, Cole, Kluber...that's it for the AL.
But
go count up the effective relievers. Guys who can shut you down for
one inning. There's about 100.
So
teams are configuring their pitching staffs a new way.
3
or 4 closer types for every team. The Brewers are built along those
lines. I think they'll win with that idea this year. At least until
they face the Astros in the World Series.
The
really bad thing about this new Paradigm is longer games. Each team
is going to use 7 guys every freaking game...an endless parade of
pitchers trudging out from the bullpen and taking 8 warm up
pitches...endless trips to the mound so the catcher and pitcher can
talk about signs. Oh hideous fate! No more shutouts, 25 game winners,
one pitcher no-hitters. No Walter Johnsons, Bob Fellers, Sandy
Koufaxes or Bob
Gibsons. Just a bunch of one-inning wonders.
The
Astros and the Bosox. I avoided contemplating this eventuality by
picking the Yankees to beat the Sox. That's the only Division series
I got wrong. So now we get the two winningest teams. The Red Sox
scored the most runs a game (5.7) and the Astros gave up the fewest
(3.3) The Red Sox had the best home record, the Stros had the best
road record. Something's got to give!
These
teams are close. They both have a winning mentality and confidence.
Both lineups are deep. Both benches are strong. The Astros have
better pitching and that's what might make the difference. The
rundown:
5
point scale: 5 is MVP level player, 4 is All Star level, 3 is average
big league player, 2 is below average, but still has enough talent in
one area or another to be valuable...good D, can steal a base, some
power etc. 1 point player? Maybe they should be playing the batboy.
3rd
base: Houston has Bregman: 5 points. Boston has either Nunez
or Devers or maybe Holt: 3 points.
Short:
Houston has an injured Correa: 2 points for now Boston has
Bogaerts: worth 4.
Second:
Houston has Altuve: 5 points Bosox have Holt and Kinsler
platooning: 3 points
First:
Give Houston Gurriel: 3 points. Boston has Pierce and
Moreland (who has a bad hammy) 3 points
Catcher:
a bunch of non-hitters but I say the two Bosox backstops are among
the best defenders in the league. Vasquez and
Leon: 2 points. Houston has McCann and
Maldonado: 2 points.
Left:
Houston: Marwin Gonzalez: 3 points (with an up arrow for being
clutch lately) Boston: Benintendi: 4 points
Center:
Houston: Springer: 4 points. Boston: Bradley Jr.: 3
points (less for offense than for spectacular D)
Right:
Houston: Reddick: 3 points. Boston: Betts: 5 points.
Total:
Houston: 27 points Boston: 27 points.
I
just wasted two pages of stats.
As
far as pitching goes, the Astros have two Aces in Verlander and Cole
and two good backups in Kuechel and
Morton. The Sox have Sale and he can match the Aces but Price
and Porcello
can't.
The
wild card is Eovaldi. He throws 100 but he's usually all over
the place. The only team he's been consistently good against is the
Yankees and they needed him to beat the Yanks. If he can win a game
and Sale can win 2 the Sox may do it. But I don't see the Sox
handling Cole at all and even though they've seen Verlander a lot,
they haven't beaten him much. If Sale can win that first game in
Boston the Sox can win this series. But if they lose two in Boston
forget it.
The
Astros have a much deeper, better bullpen.
I
say Houston in 7. These are my two favorite teams and I hope it's a
killer series.
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