MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: MOOKIE AND THE MIGHTY MASHING MUNCHKINS

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: MOOKIE AND THE MIGHTY MASHING MUNCHKINS

One third of the 2018 season completed and what do we know?

Negatory:

1/the games move too slowly.

2/there are too many bad teams.

3/everybody strikes out too much.

4/injuries decide pennant races.

Positractive:

1/3 super teams make for a pennant race worth watching.

2/a whole bunch of great young players have come up.

3/Mookie and the Munchkins are taking over.

Let's start with the last item:

Mookie Betts is 5'8” and weighs (very suspect listing) 180 lbs. and he leads all of baseball in home runs. If he winds up winning the home run crown he will be the smallest player ever to do that. (Hack Wilson hit 56 in 1930 and he was 5'6” but he weighed about 230. He was a true walking barrel. Size 4 feet. How did he balance himself, even?)

Of course, even though the baseball reference lists Mook at 5”9” we know that's bunk. And I doubt he's within 10 pounds of the 180 he's listed at. All pro sports lie about size because everybody want to be bigger. (Okay...not horse racing. Jockeys lie that they're smaller.) Basketball players always add a couple three inches in height so they get drafted higher. Charles Barkley was listed at 6”6”. Hah! He's like 6'3”. Football players likewise. Quarterbacks need to be tall so they lie. Offensive lineman can't get anybody to take them seriously unless they're over 300 lbs. And nobody used to want to recruit little guys to play baseball. If they were tiny little men, they had to play shortstop or second and steal a lot of bases. Little guys with power? Seen any unicorns lately?

In the history of baseball only a handful of smaller hitters have been real power threats.

Mel Ott of the New York Giants in the 20's to 40's was probably the first. He was listed at 5'9” and 170 and he arrived in the majors at the age of 17. Ott was the first hitter (that anybody remembers) who used the high leg kick as a timing mechanism, something that was completely unheard of in baseball at the time. Ott, a leftie hitter, would balance on his back leg and dip his hands so the bat was below his waist as the pitch came in. Then he'd launch his weight forward and generate power. His manager, John McGraw, refused to send him down to the minors for seasoning because he knew some minor league coach would try to change Ott's style. McGraw left him alone and Ott rewarded the Giants with 6 years as home run leader and 511 taters for his career, 7 years with an OPS of over 1.0 and 9 years top 12 in MVP voting.

Yogi Berra played at 5'6” and 185 (stretching it) and learned how to jack the ball to right in Yankee Stadium. He wasn't a home run leader, but he was dangerous and averaged 27 homers for every 162 games played.

Joe Morgan was 5'6” and was a pretty good home run threat who averaged 16 dings for each 162 games. He was never close to leading the league though.

Kirby Puckett (5'7” 178 lbs.) likewise. Puck hit 19 homers per 162 games.

Now, Ott and Berra really benefited from the parks they played their home games in. The old Polo Grounds that housed the Giants was 257 down the right field line. Ott knew that and tailored his swing accordingly. Berra had a very friendly relationship with the famous Yankee Stadium right field porch.

So what do we make of Jimmy Wynn, the Toy Cannon? Wynn played for the Astros in the worst hitter's park in the majors, the famously dead-aired Astrodome. And yet Jimmy Wynn, at 5'9” and 160 lbs., finished in the top 10 in N.L. home runs 5 times. He is unfairly undervalued by historians because he played in the relative backwater of Houston and wasn't on competitive teams. And of course his offensive stats were curtailed by that lousy hitting environment. But Jimmy was a legit bomber. (25 4-baggers per 162 games.) He hit one of the longest home runs in the history of Crosley Field in Cincinnati.

Watch it on youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ2fs9p-J3s

and this freak show at Forbes Field https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4Cn6qusV3c

But now we have at least 4 Jimmy Wynn's playing in the majors. The Mighty Mashing Munchkins have arrived!

2018: season so far…

Mookie Betts Red Sox: 17 homers (1^st), 19 doubles (1^st) 36 rbi's (6^th but he's a lead off hitter!) runs 52 (1^st) batting average .359 (1^st) steals 13 (2^nd)

Jose Ramirez Cleveland (5'8” 165lbs.) 15 homers, 14 doubles (through only 50 games!) (29/56 last season)

in the National League:

Ozzie Albies Braves: (5'7” 165 lbs.) 14 homers, 15 doubles 46 runs scored

and lest we forget…

Jose Altuve Astros: 5'5” 165 (listed...actually about 150) only 4 homers so far but he hit 24 each of the last two seasons. Perennial batting champ and hits leader.

This is the year we were all supposed to be gaga over the Twin Towers of the Yankees, Judge and Stanton...forget it. I'll take the Munchkins!

MLB was making a big deal over the length of games in the off season and making plans to correct said sloth. That's funny. Games still drag on. The reasons are mostly because nobody can put the ball in play and counts go deep to every batter, most of whom wind up striking out. And with all the pitches being thrown, naturally you have to use more pitchers...6 or 7 per game regularly. Warming up and replacing reliever after reliever and then having every other batter going to full counts...that'll lengthen your games a little, don't you think?

MLB made some noise about voluntarily getting pitchers to take less time between pitches and asking batters not to step out as often but it's done little to shorten ball games. I watched some of the Yankee/Angels game with the very deliberate deliveries of Tanaka versus Garrett Richards...painful! Both of them topped 26 seconds between every pitch.

What to do?

First here's what NOT to do...don't mess with the strike zone. Don't limit the number of relievers used in an inning or anything nutty like that. Try these ideas:

1/A 20 second pitch clock except on charged time outs when the catcher absolutely has to go out to the mound.

2/Limit those visits to 5 a game.

3/5 warmup pitches each half inning instead of 8, including relievers who should have warmed up in the pen anyway.

4/All relievers brought in by golf cart.

5/Cut one thirty second commercial out of each half inning but add a full minute and a half back during the seventh inning stretch to reclaim some lost commercial dollars.

6/No batter step outs except after a swing or if the ump thinks the pitcher is taking too much time and grants the batter a time out.

7/equip umps with a two way radio so the replay ump in New York can tell the chief instantly if a call should be changed or not. No more walking over to a dugout and waiting around endlessly for a call...the ump should know the answer by the time the manager calls for a replay.

I think these changes could cut 20-30 minutes off a game. But they never listen to me anyway…

The pennant races this year:

There are too many bad teams in baseball. Teams intentionally folding and selling off everything of value so they can finish last and get draft choices has gotten out of hand. I brought this up in my start of the season issue and it's even worse than I thought.

Now we have 6 Zombie Teams in the majors (I define it as teams at .400 or under). Miami and Cincinnati in the N.L. (San Diego almost qualifies except they are at .407 and still only 6 ½ games out in the weak N.L. West.) the A.L. has 4: Baltimore (19 games back already!), Kansas City, Chicago and Texas. That's a lot of non-competitive teams and a lot of disinterested fans.

What to do? Outside of imposing some kind of financial penalties for badness, not much. One thing MLB could do is force Zombie Teams to spend any money that the rich teams who go over the spending limit share with them on the team and not on profits for owners. The only other thing would be to dictate the ticket prices based on where the team finished the year before. That would be an incentive to win more games for sure, but I doubt if that is even constitutional. And a $100 ticket in New York kind of equals a $30 ticket in a Zombie town, so how do you parse that?

One thing for sure...attendance is down in baseball and I think long games, too many strike outs and Zombie Teams are to blame.

Injuries decide pennant races: Witness Washington. As usual, half their roster is on the DL at any given time. So they've been treading water at 1 game back. I still say they'll finish first in the East, but Harper hasn't had his annual injury yet and neither has Strasburg. (Note: everybody swoons over Harper and his unbelievable talent and power...give me a break... the guy is batting .226!)

The New York Metropublicans also got their annual bombing and lost Cespedes, D'Arnaud, Flores, Frazier and several starting pitchers to the usual Met afflictions. (oblique/hammy/elbow etc.)

Philadelphia and Atlanta took advantage and are now vying for first place in the East.

I predicted the Phils would finish second and I stand by that. They have much better pitching with Nola emerging as a real ace and Pivetta and Arrieta a solid 2 and 3. If they can pick up a good hitting outfielder to help out Odubel Herrera and get Hoskins and Santana off the snide, they could surprise. (Note: I don't expect Odubel to stay this hot. He has the most complicated batting stance I've ever seen. His front (right) foot is lying sideways on the ground at this weird angle. He has a good batting eye though.)

Atlanta has suddenly become relevant with great young players. Acuna and Albies and Swanson are helping Freeman and Markakis and Inciarte. Their team BA is .265 and OBP is .335, both near the top of baseball. Their pitching ERA is in the top half of MLB, even while playing in the new launching pad of SunTrust Park. I expect the Bravos to finish third, but this is one team that's worth the price of admission.

The N.L. Central is a 4-team race with Milwaukee currently on top. The addition of two great outfielders in Cain and Yelich, plus the ongoing excellence of third sacker Travis Shaw has their offense humming. The rotation has been ordinary, but the bullpen, led by Josh Hader, has been exemplary. I didn't think they would be this strong.

Of course, continued under-achievement from Chicago and St. Louis has helped the Brew Crew build a 4 game cushion. God knows what's with the Cubbies. I suppose they are waiting for their usual post-All Star Game surge, but how do they lose so many games with their roster? Rizzo (BA .215) and Heyward (.224) have been duds all year, but Bryant, Baez and Schwarber have all been hitting well. Put most of the blame on the really wretched performances of starters Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana.

The Cardinal story can be told with crystal clarity if you look at the DL list below:

Name	Last Updated	Injury Type	Injury Details
Matthew Bowman	May 18, 2018	Finger	Bowman has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to blisters and there is no timetable for return.
Paul DeJong	May 25, 2018	Hand	DeJong has been placed on the 10-day disabled list and is expected to miss four-to-eight weeks after having surgery to insert screws and a metal plate into his fractured left hand.
Dexter Fowler	May 27, 2018	Knee	Fowler sat out the last game with a right knee injury and it is unknown if he will play against the Brewers on Monday.
Luke Gregerson	May 16, 2018	Shoulder	Gregerson has landed on the 10-day disabled list due to a right shoulder impingement and elbow soreness. There is no timetable for his return to the lineup.
Greg Holland	May 26, 2018	Hip	Holland has been designated for the 10-day disabled list due to a right hip impingement. A timeline for his return has yet to be established.
Dominic Leone	May 06, 2018	Bicep	Leone is on the 10-day disabled list with right biceps nerve irritation and it is unclear when he will return to the lineup.
Carlos Martinez	May 20, 2018	Upper Body	Martinez has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a strained right lat muscle but is expected to return to action in 10-14 days.
Yadier Molina	May 06, 2018	Pelvis	Molina has landed the 10-day disabled list after undergoing surgery to his pelvic area for a traumatic hematoma. He is expected to be shelved for at least four weeks.
Alex Reyes	May 27, 2018	Elbow	Reyes has been transferred to the 60-day disabled list while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He is on a rehab assignment and is expected to be activated and start Wednesday's game against the Brewers.
Adam Wainwright	May 17, 2018	Elbow	Wainwright has been transferred to the 60-day disabled list while recuperating from inflammation in his pitching elbow and is expected to held out of action until at least the All-Star break.

8 out of those 10 names were players they were really counting on. Losing Molina alone put them behind the eight-ball because he is so important to their pitching staff. Add to this grim casualty list the under-performing Marcel Ozuna, Matt Carpenter, Kolton Wong and Dexter Fowler and you have the reason St. Louis is 4 back.

But the rest of the league should be concerned that it's only 4 games, even with that much carnage.

Another surprise: the Piraticals are playing .538 and are only 5 games out! We all wrote them off when they traded McCutcheon and Cole. But here they still are, hitting for good average, little power and pitching fairly poorly but winning more games than they lose. Congratulations Buccos...you didn't go Zombie...you're still trying and your fans appreciate it I'm sure. That's all the fans can ask for, really, is a team that really tries hard to win and plays with spirit.

N.L.West...Diamondbacks...currently in free-fall. Reason? 11 out of their top 16 position players are hitting .220 or less...9 are fully under the Mendoza Line of .200. Result: Utter Disaster!

The Humps started hot despite Paul Goldschmidt's awful slump, but instead of coming out of it, Goldie has infected the rest of the team, and, now that Pollack is hurt, they have no offense at all to speak of. Goldie has struck out 69 times in 220 plate appearances! He has only 16 ribbies in a third of a season! He looks so lost! 5 other players have struck out over 40 times in the 52 games the team has played.

The pitching has held up well, led by Corbin, Greinke and an effective bullpen of Boxberger, Bradley, Hirano and Chafin.

This is a team playing in one of the best hitting parks in the majors hitting .211 for the team. OBP .289. Meltdown!

So you'd think the Dodgers would be running away with it, but they aren't. They had terrible luck with injuries to Justin Turner and Corey Seager and lost Kershaw for a month with a strained bicep. They were buried in fourth place for a while, but the 'Heads have come roaring back to 3 ½ games behind the Rockies (but still playing .462 ball.) I confidently predicted that the front office would make a play for Manny Machado, but losing Kershaw and Seager might have made them think that first place was out of reach. Or maybe they're just tired of spending all that money. But Kershaw is back now, the other starting pitching has been

stellar, and Kenley Jansen has worked through his early season funk. Turner came back with a bang. Maybe they think they can still take it.

I think the Dodgers are short and really need a big bat. Matt Kemp has been unexpectedly awesome, but they need somebody to give them what Seager could. Bellinger has been okay, but not the force he was last year. (As I predicted!)

The reason I think that L.A. is short is that the Colorado Rockies are in first place despite having a terrible start offensively. Arrenado, Blackmon and Story have been hitting but that's it. And they've been stinking it up at home in Coors Field!

Their pitching has been very ordinary, despite that stacked bullpen. When it gets warm, the Rocks are going to get it going and pull away, I predict. The Dodgers usually get hot in July and August, but they'll have to get really hot to grab a playoff spot.

San Francisco lost their whole starting rotation but have been playing with pride to stay around .500. Bumgarner is almost back, but it would take something really miraculous to resurrect the Gigantes.

A.L. East: Let us now praise the first two of our Super Teams in MLB. New York and Boston. These two heavyweights have proved their superiority. They should wrestle down to the wire. The Yanks have come up with a truly scary lineup mixture of hitters in their prime (Stanton, Gregorius, Walker, Gardner, Hicks) mixed with young studlies (Andujar, Torres, Judge, Austin, Sanchez and Bird)

Add in Severino as a Number One starter and that lights-out bullpen and the Yanks are about one starting pitcher away from total domination. And this domination should last for a while. Only the Red Sox and the Astros can play with the Big Dog Yankees.

Boston has the best record in baseball for now. But even with that unbelievable record hot start they're only up by one game over the Yankees. I think they'll keep hitting, but if they lose Betts or Martinez to injury they'll be in trouble. They have depth in the rotation, but they need Sale and Price to keep pitching at a high level.

Toronto and Tampa Bay are scrappy teams but they are also- rans in this division.

The A.L Central I call the “Who has the Lousiest Bullpen” Division. Statistically, it's the Cleveland Indians, who would probably be considered a Super Team if it wasn't for their bottom of the barrel pen. They just put Andrew Miller back on the DL. Cleveland needs help...but they're still the first place team in this flawed division.

Minnesota has watched Byron Buxton slide back to being a

.157 hitter after showing signs of life last season.

Mauer is hurt and so is Santana but the starting pitching has been petty darn good and the Twinks are 3 ½ back. (and yes, the bullpen sucks.)

Detroit has specialized in bad bullpens over the years so what's new? Their big star players (Cabrera and Zimmerman) are hurt so what's new? Detroit was expected to Zombie but their pride won't let them. Strive ever onward, Tigres! You and the Pirates can look at yourselves in the mirror and not flinch.

Over in the A.L. West it's a fight for the second wild card spot after either Boston or New York wraps up the first. Houston is going to win this division unless their bad bullpen does them in. They really should get a few new arms out there cause that bunch sucks right now. They had an 8-3 lead over Cleveland yesterday and coughed it up in the ninth with lousy relief.

But what Houston has is starters. That rotation will be hard to deal with in the playoffs...Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, Morton and McCullers. That lineup might dominate the Yankees even.

Seattle lost Cano (no more bold face type for you, Cheater!)to drug cheating and went on a winning streak. They're only 1 back of Houston right now. The Angels are 4 ½ back but don't have enough pitching behind Richards and Ohtani (who only pitches on Sundays)

What an interesting kid that Ohtani is! Has such a joy for the game you gotta love him. Good eye at the plate. Power plus. One of the fastest runners in the league (and one of the worst baserunners!)

Nobody takes Oakland seriously but the A's take mediocre pitching and stomp it in the head. And they have a few good pitchers themselves. Beware!

The only note I have for poor Texas is...teach Joey Gallo how to hit to the opposite field! Teams are shifting EVERYBODY to the right side when he comes up...nobody in left at all, nobody left of second base at all! And yet the big lug just keeps trying to pull it to Arkansas every time up.

Think about it...Gallo hits on average 1 homer every four games. He barely gets a hit other than an occasional homer. He's struck out 78 times in 219 plate appearances. With this shift he's only had 20 other hits besides the 15 taters he's hit. He's batting .197.

Now what if suddenly, Gallo starts hitting the ball to left field every time he comes up...or at least trying to. Don't go for homers at all, just bunt it or slap it or somehow hit the ball to left. It's an automatic hit because nobody is over there! If he does that four games in a row even figuring in his strike outs he gets on say 12 out of 16 times. Don't you think the other team is going to start putting a guy or two back on the left side? I mean, would you be willing to let Joey Gallo bat ..750 against your defense game after game? So if Joey gives up pulling the ball for a few games, he helps his team out a lot and eventually the defense is going to have to come back to the left side. Then he can try to blast a few again.

If you were the Texas manager, would you rather have Joe hit 1 homer every four games and make almost all outs otherwise, or would you like him to get on 3 out of 4 times every game?

Okay...that's enough for today. Happy Memorial Day and remember our soldiers and sailors and aviators who have to put it on the line to take care of us.

Until next time...

--Marco

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2018: "EDUCATION IS IMPORTANT BUT BASEBALL IS IMPORTANT-ER" Edition

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: “EDUCATION IS IMPORTANT BUT BASEBALL IS IMPORTANT-ER” EDITION

ITEM 1: SLAY THE BEAST!

My Old Chums Brady and Phil and I are playing hookie and driving down to Houston Thursday to watch the Astros host the Yankees in an actual mid-week DAY GAME!! Ah, the prehistoric perfection of it all! Phil's cousin George (Yankee fan that he is) got us some kind of good seats from his law firm's seasonal supply (those lawyers can't play hookie like we can) and we should be in good position to revel in the astounding fact that the Astros actually have the Yankees OUTGUNNED! I mean...it's close...but except for the bullpen and the power quotient...

The Yankees are great and they are going to be even greater in the next two years or so as their talented young players figure it out. The rest of the league has conspired to make Didi Gregorious the MVP by continuing to pitch to him with right-handers as they try to counter the three-headed hydra of Judge/Stanton/Sanchez in that batting order. Did you notice that as soon as Aaron Boone changed up the lineup to put Didi in between Judge and Stanton that the team went on a nine-game winning streak? With their diminutive shortstop leading the way with nightly game winning homers and such? In trying to neutralize those Yankee right handed sluggers the league has turned Gregorius into George Brett.

Why do they keep trying to get fastballs by him on the inside corner? The guy has really quick hands and he keeps sending drives into the short right field porch at the Stadium. The righty pitchers can't control the big boppers anyway because the big Beastie Boys can reach out for those outside corner fastballs and flip little pop ups that wind up in the (should be illegal) ridiculous home run haven in right field.

Why not schedule some leftie junk ball pitchers against the Yankees once in awhile and see what happens? Or just anybody who can throw off-speed once in awhile? Charlie Morton of the Astros just broke up that winning streak with a strong outing where he made the pinstripers look stupid trying to hit his big hook and used his fastball to set them up high and off the plate. Gregorius struck out on a good curveball and missed it by two feet. Come on American League...adjust.

If you don't, the Yankees will turn into an all-devouring nightmare. They have great established hitting stars being augmented by some scary-good young players like Miguel Andujar (leads league in doubles), Gleybar Torres (watch him turn a double play...move over Mazeroski!) and Travis Austin, this year's winner of the Robin Ventura Memorial “Why-On-Earth-Did-I-Charge-The-Mound?” Award for turning Red Sox hurler Joe Kelly into a folk hero by putting his ass in the way of a retaliatory purpose pitch after he came into second base tootsies high and spiked Brock Holt; a slide which was illegal, unnecessary and a double no-no for a brash rookie to think he could get away with. Then he loses his grits after getting his ass tattooed his next time up? Grow up Travis! I'm going to Houston to boo you! (Now he's scared!)

ITEM 2: LET US NOW PRAISE THE FORMER DISASTROS

Speaking of Charlie Morton, he's just one of the amazing members of the Astros starting staff which features 3 or 4 pitchers in the league leaders in ERA and strike outs at any given time. Keuchel hasn't even gotten it going like he can but the others...Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Morton and (except for a couple of bad starts) McCullers are blitzing the league. With that kind of starting pitching and that offense it's a wonder they've managed to lose 10 games, but nobody was hitting in the early going except Springer, Correa and Altuve...the rest of the order was sub-Mendoza. Now the rest of the order is starting to wake up. And they're in first place anyway. The bullpen is still the question, but Giles looked good striking out the side last night in the 2-1 win over the Bombers.

ITEM 3: PRESCIENCE

As I predicted, pitching is moving off the get-them-out-with-heat school of thought and going to the subtle Bugs Bunny change ups, nerf-ball splitters and “excuse-me-but-have-you-seen-my-jockstrap-around-here-anywhere?” sliders to get these muscle boy launch-angle Cyborgs out. Ho-hum, here comes another record strike out year.

Witness the Diamondback's resurgent starter Patrick Corbin. Last year he threw 30% fastballs. ERA 4.08/K to BB ratio 3-1/ WHIP 1.42. This year he's only throwing 15% fastballs. Everything else breaks, dips or darts. 2018 record 4-0. ERA 2.25/K-BB 8-1/WHIP 0.75

ITEM 4: EARTHQUAKE TRADE COMING

Corbin and other hurlers are fattening up on a steady diet of Dodger. The Blue Ones are hurting now that Corey Seager (I talked about it in April) had his elbow finally surrender. He's up for TJ surgery and a year off. Along with the continuing Justin Turner rehab the 'Heads are without the heart of their batting order. The Dodgers can't afford to wait a year or two for their team to reconfigure. They need a good infielder and a big bat for the middle of the order.

I predict they will give up trying to stay under the luxury tax cap and give up boo-coo prospects and coinage to procure Manny Machado. They'll try to sign him to a long term so they don't lose him to free agency after they rent him for this season, but the Dodger brass knows they need to win now, before Kershaw breaks down or opts out. They ain't gonna get there with Bellinger, Joc Peterson and Chase Utley...even though those guys have been pretty good so far. (Puig is waiting for the hot weather.) Tomorrow's headlines today,Folks!

A couple more Dodger notes: I give manager Dave Roberts major points for immediately benching Cody Bellinger after the latter dogged it running out a sure double. Bellinger mouthed off to the press saying he shouldn't risk injury by over-hustling. Oh really? Tell it to Enos Slaughter or Pete Rose. Go ask your teammate Chase Utley what his opinion is. Lack of hustle is a poisonous and viral contagion in any team, but especially one that is struggling like the Los Angeles Dodgers. Roberts did exactly the right thing by slapping down his star so the rest of the team won't get the idea that it's okay to loaf on a baseball field.

I picked the Rockies to finish ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West this season but now it looks like Arizona will also top them. I hope the Dodger owners don't blame Dave Roberts for this team falling off the cliff. It's a long season and the Bluebloods have a habit of getting real hot in mid-summer. We'll see.

ITEM 5: MORE TOMORROW'S HEADLINES

PLAYOFF TEAMS FOR 2020 NOW SET!

AMERICAN LEAGUE: NEW YORK, BOSTON, HOUSTON, CHICAGO WHTE SOX, OAKLAND

NATIONAL LEAGUE: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, COLORADO

Place your early bets in Vegas…

ITEM 6: NAMES

Doesn't it seem like there's a lot of guys named “Gurriel” in baseball all of a sudden?

Even though he can't spell his name right, I am rooting for Padre left-fielder Jose Pirela. Hey, he doesn't have any power but he's got a low batting average.

ITEM 7: DYNAMIC DUOS

The Phillies (as predicted) have come alive this season. They have some young, strong, exciting players, led by Rhys Hoskins (OPS .985) and Odubel Herrera (.905) Once their young pitchers come around…

The Atlanta Braves were hot early with their chronic underachieving shortstop Dansby Swanson leading the Majors in OPS. Dansby has come back to earth (.766) but now the Bravos have struck gold with 21 year old second sacker Ozzie Albies (.988) and 20 year old outfielder Ronald Acuna (1.289) hitting in front of established threat Freddie Freeman (.995). 'Bout time the Braves got up off the canvas. If half their starting pitchers hadn't gone down they'd be in first place.

With Washington sufferring their usual quota of crippling injuries one of those two NL East teams could make the playoffs this year. And don't discount the Mets who started so hot, but then lost a heartbreaker late to the Nats and have been middling since then. The Metskies also banished Harvey to the bullpen when he couldn't top 91 on the radar gun anymore. Harvey took it personally but what can he say? He can't get people out as a starter. Maybe he'll resurrect in the bullpen.

ITEM 8: LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS (for wonks only)

A quote from Mark Twain illustrating the volatile nature of the truth in our afflicted day and age. In this case the argument is...”who is the best offensive player in baseball?” Aren't you tired of the controversy? Most people say Mike Trout 'cause he's so cute and warm and fuzzy. And Bryce Harper is so feiry and bearded and has hair that moves. Jose Altuve is like a Pokemon. Joey Votto is Italian and gets on base a lot. And how about Giancarlo Stanton? He's Big! And Aaron Judge! He's so...also Big!

It's time for the cold hard clarity of statistics.

I present for your consideration the simple stat called OP...offensive production. Here's what it is.

TOTAL BASES +

WALKS +

HIT BY PITCH +

SACRIFICE FLIES+

RBIS +

STOLEN BASES

MINUS -

STRIKE OUTS -

GROUNDED INTO DOUBLE PLAYS-

CAUGHT STEALING

DIVIDE THE TOTAL BY PLATE APPEARANCES FOR THE OP NUMBER

How do I justify my impudence in inventing OP? Just what the world needs...another impenetrable stat to evaluate baseball players.

Well mine is certainly not definitive.

In trying to isolate a player's contributions you need to separate him from the strength or weakness of his teammates. That is almost impossible. (Good. It is supposed to be a team game anyway, right?) Joey Votto has been the only good hitter on the Reds for many seasons, so his production will probably suffer somewhat. Hack Wilson was not a Hall of Famer but he hit 56 homers and had 191 ribbies (the all-time MLB record)for the Cubs in 1930. His OPS was 1.177! But Wilson was hitting in a lineup that hit .309 for the season! OPS .859! Those are the TEAM totals in a lively ball National League that hit .303 as a LEAGUE. So Wilson had a lot more opportunities to drive in runs, for sure.

Therefore it's hard to compare hitters across eras and to tell how much their teammates help or hurt their production. Ballpark configuration ALSO figures into it a lot. (You heard me railing about the right field home run porch at Yankee Stadium earlier in this screed.) So I'm just comparing players who are contemporaries and leaving the ballpark effects and relative team performance out of it...for now. I have adjusted some of the point values to limit the effect of a lineup or type of event.

But let's just BREAKDOWN my formula and apply them to the above-mentioned 6 hitters. Let's start with Jose Altuve.

TOTAL BASES are of course all his hits added up. 1 for a single, 3 for a triple...etc. Jose's Total: 323

WALKS provide more opportunities for his team to score runs by putting him on base. JT: 58

HIT BY PITCHES likewise. 9

SACRIFICE FLIES cost his team an out and outs limit opportunities to score runs. I don't include sacrifice hits because there is a lot of controversy over whether or not bunting a man up hurts a team more by costing it an out than it helps by putting a runner in better scoring position. Also, you almost never see the best hitters on a team bunting to move a man up. You always see the weaker hitters do that. Big hint that sacrifice hits are really the lesser of two evils when a weak hitter is up. The exception would be squeeze plays that score a run. That's a good use of an out most times, but you still don't see the real good hitters do it that often, so I don't include the stat.

A SACRIFICE FLY, on the other hand is a fly ball that scores a run. A good trade of an out for a run, even though sometimes it's not the best thing for a teams' chances. (When you need a five-run rally for instance) Still, I include it here as a positive offensive stat to make up for all the runners-advanced type stats that I DON'T include.

Jose Total: 4

RBIS are included but not runs scored. Both somewhat depend on teammates coming through to put the hitter being studied into an advantageous position to score or drive in runs. So I include one and not the other. That should make the stat break even so to speak. And batting in runs is one of the few clutch moments that has any kind of measurement at all. It's a big deal for a team to have someone who drives in a run when it's out there, available. JT: 81

STOLEN BASES get the player that much closer to scoring a run and also help the team by disrupting the pitcher. It's an obvious positive offensive act. JT: 32

Those are the main offensive events, with adjustments, that can happen as a result of any given plate appearance, in my view. I add them up and give them each a weight of 1 unit.

JOSE ALTUVE 2017 OFFENSIVE PLUSES: 507

And now the negatives:

STRIKE OUTS only hurt a team. They do nothing positive with the possible exception of at least not hitting into a double play. Thus we sometimes cheer when a pitcher strikes out instead of grounding into a made to order. Anyway, K's should cost a hitter production points. This balances out calling other outs point-neutral. Some outs are worse than others. Jose Altuve Ks in 2017: 84

GROUNDING INTO DOUBLE PLAYS not only isn't a positive for the hitter, it also costs him an additional runner on the bases and another out. Punish him point wise! Jose: 19

CAUGHT STEALING eliminates the point you just got for your walk or your hit. (And if you got caught stealing home it costs you the three base gain you and your team just made!) Bill James says being caught stealing hurts a team twice as much as it helps a team to steal a base and get into scoring position. Still, Bill James be damned. I'm just counting them one point off. Jose: 6

JOSE ALTUVE'S 2017 OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION MINUSES: 109

So Jose's raw number is 398. It took Altuve 662 plate appearances to produce this total. Therefore:

JOSE ALTUVE 2017 OP: .601

Here's the results of the six players I've examined:

GIANCARLO STANTON 2017 OP: .717

MIKE TROUT 2017 OP: .690

JOE VOTTO 2017 OP: .673

BRYCE HARPER 2017 OP: .604

JOSE ALTUVE 2017 OP: .601

AARON JUDGE 2017 OP: .549 (all those K's hurt his OP)

For historical reference let's look at Hack Wilson again and then at Ruth, Williams, Mantle, and Musial and a few more legends...their best seasons. Any stat devised to measure offensive success has to have these guys at or near the top before you adjust for parks, conditions, league strike out averages etc. etc.

HACK WILSON 1930 OP: .913

TED WILLIAMS 1941 OP: .939

MICKEY MANTLE 1956 OP: .813

STAN MUSIAL 1948 OP: .855

TY COBB 1911 OP: .837 (estimated caught stealing 30)

JOE DIMAGGIO 1937 OP: .896

ROGERS HORNSBY 1922 OP:.885

LOU GEHRIG 1931 OP: .896

...and by some strange coincidence, Babe Ruth's best stat year 1921...comes out exactly 1.00. that's the highest I calculated and probably the highest ever recorded. It means that, on average, something good happened for his team virtually every time Ruth came to the plate.

(Note: in some of these earlier years there are no stats for caught stealing, GDPs or Sac Flies so these all would probably be a little lower)

What does it all mean? Nothing changes. The great offensive performances of all time are still intact. The guys you expected to be high up are high up. I need to work on park effects and especially the general level of offense in baseball in any given era. Also potency of the surrounding lineup of a given player. When I figure all that out I'll let you know.

Meanwhile it seems like Giancarlo had the best offensive year in 2017 by a small margin over Mike Trout, but a large margin over everybody else. We must also take into account that Trout and Harper were hurt for about 50 games each. So even though their OPs were numbers per plate appearance, we should factor in durability issues and give credit to those players who manage to stay on the field more. Cobb and Musial and Gehrig and Judge and Votto were always in the lineup. Harper, Stanton and Mantle were not.

ITEM 9: ANSWER TO LAST POST'S STUMPER

The only player to have been active in the major leagues during the careers of both Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron was Phil Cavaretta. He came up with the Cubs in 1934 when Ruth was just closing it down. And he lasted until 1955 with the White Sox during Hank Aaron's second year in the Bigs.

Phil was mostly a first baseman for the Cubs all that time in between. He won the batting title (.355) and the MVP for the Cubbies in their World Series year of 1945.

See you next time!!

--Marco

Marco's Baseball blog-O-Roonie 2018: STATE OF THE GAME

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: STATE OF THE GAME!

The murky fog of free agent possibilities is lifting at last and there is some indication of how each team is approaching the coming struggle. At last your humble correspondent can emerge from hibernation, eat a berry or three and put claw marks on his favorite pine tree.

First...RULE CHANGES!

Baseball wants to speed up this nineteenth century game (which moved twice as fast in the nineteenth century by the way) and compete with football, video games and social media. This, even though baseball actually works better with cell phones than most sports because the Millenials have plenty of dead time to peruse their devices while lounging around watching the national pastime, waiting for something to actually happen. (Don't worry, youngsters, it eventually will!) Also, the typical football game lasts 3 hours and 10 minutes while the average baseball game lasts 2 hours and 57 minutes. (But of course, every once in a while the Yankees and Red Sox link up for a 4 ½ hour marathon that terrifies the front offices. Also, football games are played mostly in the day, not mostly at night when the kiddies have to be abed by 9:00...i.e. about the 6^th inning.)

The immediate counter measures are: only 6 visits to the mound allowed, (not including pitching changes) also known as the Gary Sanchez rule. He's the catcher for the Yankees and his quota of mound visits is about 6 per BATTER!

The players piss and moan about not being able to change the signs when a runner is on second base. (Somebody might steal a sign? In baseball? Come on!) Somebody ought to point out to these players that while they are sitting on the bench between innings the catcher can wander over to his pitcher, who is probably counting how many sunflower seeds he can cram into his cheek, or maybe whose cap he's going to place a wad of bubble gum on the top of, and say something like...”Hey Dude! If they get a runner on second I'm going to the third sign I flash, okay?”

The Fathers of Baseball wanted to install a pitch clock so the hurlers had to pitch every twenty seconds but couldn't muster the sand to infuriate the pitchers quite that much. If they really wanted to cut time from the game they'd shorten the commercial breaks between innings...(they chiseled a little off but not enough). Knocking one thirty second commercial time slot out of each half inning would mean a net gain of 8 minutes per non-extra inning game. (But don't hold your breath on this one.)

They should also ban batting glove adjustments when the batter hasn't even swung at the pitch. (The Nomar Imperative they could call it!)

PITCHING MORPHS!

You might notice a distinct movement toward blurring the line between starters and relievers now that analytics have proved beyond all doubt that an average pitcher loses effectiveness the third time through the order. Hitters are so good that they can adjust to a pitcher's style, timing and stuff by the third time they see him on a given day and they start to square up his pitches. So get ready for 4 inning outings by starters and then a parade of relievers, as we saw in the World Series last year.

I think this is going to strain bullpens to the breaking point and there will be a reaction. I wouldn't be surprised to see clubs push for roster adjustment...go to 26 players on their active roster just to get one more pitcher available. They can't really live with a three man bench. With one bench player having to be an extra catcher, that leaves virtually no flexibility or injury protection for the lineup.

So...more flexible bench players...guys who can catch, play outfield and infield positions. Also, more two way pitchers...guys who can come out of the bullpen and pitch an inning and also play a corner outfield position or first base or something.

They won't want to risk their pitchers in the batter's box much longer either, and with less bench players available, managers won't be able to pull double switches in the National League all the time. Will the NL lose the war against the DH and cave? I think probably so.

Also get ready for rampant abuse of the 10-day disability list. Right now it's just a way for managers to shuffle players back and forth to keep their pitching staffs fresh. It's a joke and should be regarded as such.

One positive pitching development: more curve balls coming. Everyone noticed that despite the fastball revolution with velocities going up, up and up, the top five curve ball teams all made the playoffs last year.

Houston's breaking balls exposed the Dodger hitters, too. “Oh...you seem to like that wonderful “launch angle” you've learned with that fly ball uppercut? Try uppercutting this looping curve that starts at head height and then dives inside on your ankles. Set another strike out record, why don't you, Mr. Bellinger!”

Ted Williams once said... being the ultimate hitting scientist of all time...that because the pitcher was throwing from a mound, the trajectory of his pitch was a few degrees on a down slant. Therefore, the batter should compensate with the same degree of up slant when he swung in order to achieve the most efficient contact with the sweet spot of the bat. This would result in more line drives and long fly balls.

Well, baseball has finally agreed with the Splinter and everybody is talking about an upward trajectory “swing path” to get the ball in the air. Especially with the new gym bodies they've grown and smaller parks and juicier baseballs. It's a new home run era.

But of course “The Kid” was using the trajectory of fastballs to justify his swing path. If the pitchers now turn to curve balls and sliders and splitters to counter the new fly ball swings they're facing, you'll get less long bombs and more strike outs, grounders and weak pop ups. Pitchers aren't stupid. All hitters can hit fastballs in this game or they wouldn't have ever made it to the bigs. Give 'em junk and change speeds...that's the ticket to pitching salvation now. Throw the fastball high, inside...anywhere but over the plate. Use it to incite bad swings or set batters up for the breaking pitch.

Then maybe we'll go back to the hitting philosophy of Tony Gwynn...hard grounders through the hole. Or Ichiro...hit a double hump slow grounder and beat it out with your speed. Or even all the way back to the 1890's for “hit 'em where they ain't” Wee Willie Keeler of the old Baltimore Orioles who learned to hit “Baltimore Chops” off the hard pan infield and scamper down to first while the ball was still hanging in the air.

Hey...it's a game of adjustments.

FREE AGENTS

San Diego got Eric Hosmer which was a good move because they have to give their fans somebody to watch while they continue to lose. It's a bad move because now they have to move Will Myers from first base back to the outfield.

Minnesota got Lance Lynn, thus dropping out of the Jake Arrieta sweeps. Jake went to the Phillies (my personal prediction) who had the bucks. The Twins wanted him but couldn't pay.

The Brewers needed him bad but coughed up fur balls at the price.

The Washington Nationals entertained the idea of signing Arrieta to go with Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark and finally win a playoff before they have to bust up that roster of underachieving stars. But if they signed Jake for 5 years, where would they get the money to save at least one of their two upcoming big free agents...Harper and Rendon... next year?

I think the California Angels should have made an offer. They only have Trout for another couple of years and they need to win now. They went out and did an excellent upgrade on the offense and defense by adding Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart...studly veterans all. Their bullpen is much better. But they seem to be counting too much on Shohei Ohtani being the second coming of Randy Johnson or something. (He's stinking it up in Spring Training and should really go to the minors for awhile and learn a better splitter to go with his fastball...which hitters are now blasting on moon launches regularly. He can't hit major league pitching yet, either.) The Halos really don't have a very good rotation, either. An Arrieta would have really improved their outlook for a Wild Card. (I doubt they were ever going to beat Houston for the Division this year.)

The Phils are in one of the top markets in the MLB and only have a $93 million payroll even after they pay Arrieta and Carlos Santana. The reason they ponied up for Arrieta? The Phillies went .500 the second half last season and had a 0 run differential after being -92 in the first half. They are a team on the rise. Lots of good young players they aren't paying yet. They've focused on good on-base guys like Santana, second sacker Cesar Hernandez and shortstop J.P. Crawford. They just signed top prospect Scott Kingery to a long term deal before he's even debuted! (He'll play multiple positions to start with.) Watch for the Phils to finish second in the East this season now that they have Arrieta to go with new Ace Aaron Nola. Next year, the Phils are ready to sign one of the big free agents: Harper, Machado or Donaldson. It'll be nice to be able to talk about the Phils again without wincing.

Darvish went to the Cubs (for six long years...if he lasts) which gives the Cubs a very strong starting rotation to benefit from their top notch defense, bullpen and youth.

The Boston Red Stockings finally came to Jesus with J.D.Martinez and got the home run hitter everybody said they needed. One problem...the Sox finished last in the Amreican League with 168 homers last year, as I'm sure everybody has heard by now. Mitch Moreland hit 22 and Hanley Ramirez hit 23. J.D. hit 45. If Martinez takes over at DH as is expected, and Mitch and Hanley share time at first as is also expected, one of those guys isn't in the lineup every game. So if they produce exactly as they did last year, you have to subtract 22 or 23 homers from the expected total team production. That means the Sox have only added to their homer total by about 23 homers if Martinez plays all season and is just as potent as he was in homer haven Chase Field for the Diamondhumps. (I sincerely doubt it...he'll come back to earth with about 33, but I hope I'm wrong!) Both Moreland and Ramirez had injuries off and on last season, so they may do as well or better, but I don't think Martinez (who is very injury-prone) will hit as many homers playing in Fenway.

If they really wanted to maximize their long ball possibilities, the Sox would put J.D. in left field, move Benintendi to center and bench Bradley (who hit 17 dingers). But that would severely weaken their defense in the outfield, where Bradley reigns supreme and Benintendi is very good playing the Monster in left. Martinez is a well known Dr. Strangeglove. Oh well, since somebody will probably get hurt anyway, the Sox are better off with 3 injury prone players, all things considered.

By the way, that trade the Red Sox made sending Travis Shaw (31 homers, 101 rbi's .862 OPS) to the Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornton (he of the shoulder surgery and zero games played since the trade) is looking like the worst call since Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen back in 1990.

The only big pitcher left on the market is Alex Cobb of the suffering Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have made a habit of developing one terrific pitcher after another and getting rid of them to save money when they are at their peak. The Brewers or the Angels need him most. Whoops! The Orioles just signed him. That should make the O's a little more dangerous, but still not enough to challenge Boston or New York this year.

Pity the Rays and move them to New Braunfels, Texas, right between Austin and San Antonio (4 and one half million people ...number 15 metro area in USA.) They can build an express special high tech train from downtown Austin to downtown San Antonio that stops and delivers ball fans who can leave their damn cars at home.

And poor old Mike Moustakis...the Greek Moose had a career year and figured on getting a good payday in free agency this year. So he (and his complicitous agent Scott Boras) turned down one year at $17 million from his home club Kansas City and went jauntily out into a market that didn't want to give up a draft pick to get him, with other third sackers like Machado and Donaldson and Rendon coming up for sale in 2019. So Mike went crawling back to the Royals for $5 ½ million for 1 year. Good move for the Royals cause they can trade him in June for more young players or let him go at the end of the season and see if he signs somewhere else and gives them another draft pick after all.

For Moose...just another good player who didn't read the market.

And now...a quick rundown of seasonal prospects for every team based on the ultra-scientific principle of GOOD/BAD JUJU. (Teams are listed in the order in which I believe they will finish.)

AL EAST:

New York: GOOD JUJU: every team they play should thank them for the windfall of brilliantly pairing Judge and Stanton together as the Twin Towers. What a stellar baseball attraction! Can you spell...”attendance records”? Also...best bullpen in baseball! BAD JUJU: rookie Gleybar Torres who was supposed to be the wunderkind at second base is back to the minors. Ain't ready yet.

Boston: GJ: offense looks much better! BJ: 4 pitchers out already. Starters Rodriguez, Wright, and Pomeranz plus super-closer Kimbrel (his new baby daughter has had 2 surgeries for a heart defect. God Bless her and the Kimbrel family.)

Toronto: GJ: the rotation is better than they expected and Aaron Sanchez may pitch blister-free! BJ: still haven't replaced the offense of Bautista and Encarnacion and Tulowitzski is hurt again (and again, and again, and again…)

Baltimore: GJ: they haven't caved in and traded Machado or Adam Jones yet. BJ: they haven't caved in and traded Machado or Adam Jones yet. And Zach Britton blew out his Achilles. And they gave Chris Davis a 7-year, $161 million contract two years ago. Last season he batted .215 with 26 homers and 195 strike outs.

Tampa Bay: GJ: they are actually trying to find a new stadium location where their fans can actually get to it.

BJ: they are fielding a double A offense. Who gets traded next?

AL CENTRAL:

Cleveland: GOOD JUJU: they all want to win for Terry Francona. They're so much better than the competition in the Central that they can hold down the workload on their starters (read: Corey Kluber) and save them for the playoffs. BAD JUJU: they will miss free agent emigres Carlos Santana and especially reliever Brian Shaw.

Minnesota: GJ: lots of home runs in that lineup. Byron Buxton looks like a number one pick finally, and is the fastest runner and best center fielder in baseball. Lance Lynn really helps that rotation. BJ: still lack enough pitching to win big. Just lost their shortstop Jorge Polanco to cheating juice steroid testosterone consumption. (“I never knowingly took 8000 ccs of PEDs...” Ho-Hum!)

Chicago White Sox: GJ: they've done a terrific job of turning their aging stars into top prospects for the rebuild. They are a year away but watch out for outfielder Eloy Jimenez (from the Cubs), outfielder Luis Robert and right handed pitchers Michael Kopech and Alec Hansen.

BJ: pitching is very iffy. The kids will have to be good if the Sox are going to cash in.

Kansas City: GJ: they are entering the long dark twilight of rebuilding. There is no joy in Mudville. BJ: bad contracts for Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel and others. Big trade for Soler didn't pan out. Is Raul Mondesi going to be good or just a tease? No Hosmer, Cain or Wade Davis? Man, it sucks to be a small market team!

Detroit: GJ: are you kidding? They're picked to finish below the Royals! BJ: no relief in sight. As if Detroit didn't have enough suffering, now the Tigers are doomed to an agonizing stretch of bad baseball teams. And much as I love him and honor his history as one of the great hitters of all time, Miguel Cabrera is owed $186 million over the next 6 years and will turn 35 in April. The Tiger's organization will be dragging that anchor around for quite a while.

AL WEST:

Houston: GOOD JUJU: All Hail the Bayou Beasts! The Astros finally sit atop the baseball world and it doesn't look like they want to relinquish that seat anytime soon. They went out and traded for Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh...he of the fastest average fastball in the game. Now their rotation is among the strongest in the majors. And their system is still loaded with talent. And they wisely extended Altuve's contract by 5 more glorious years! If any player ever earned his money...BAD JUJU: the bullpen is only average. McCann is showing his age at catcher. Untested Derek Fisher is slated for left so Marwin Gonzalez can be a super utility man again. Can the rookie speedster come through? But even if all the above mentioned slip up, Houston should still steamroll to the Division title at the very least. They are that strong.

Los Angeles Angels: GJ: I praised them up top. They now have a potent offense and one of the best total defenses in the game. (Cubs are very close though. If it wasn't for Schwarber they'd be number one!) BJ: they don't have enough pitching. They are thinking of going to a 6-man rotation to make it easier for Ohtani. That means an overworked bullpen (which was very good last year).

Oakland: GJ: there is no real reason for me to pick Oakland this high. I'm just tired of myself making the same picks everybody else is and it's time for Oakland to surprise us again and get good. They have some young players on the brink: outfielders Dustin Fowler and Boog Powell, infielders Jorge Mateo and Franklin Berreto and pitchers Yusmeiro Petit and A.J.Puk (what a name!) BJ: no number one or even number two type starter… tons of strikeouts in that lineup in exchange for a few long balls.

One note on the Oakies: I like that despite playing in the worst park in the majors, with no real fan support and no money, and no real chance to win big...the A's play with fierce pride and spirit.

Seattle: GJ: great everyday lineup filled with talented offensive players like Cano, Cruz, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura and now Dee Gordon to bat lead off. (But because of Cano he has to learn to play the outfield.) BJ: the above are getting a little long in the tooth. And their pitching is very thin. They are still counting on King Felix, but sadly, Hernandez got hurt in Spring Training and probably doesn't have that much left. If everything breaks right and they can stay off of the injured list, they could contend...but I doubt they will.

Texas: GJ: Adrian Beltre is a wondrous Baseball Beastie...I just love watching him. Andrus had his best offensive year ever at age 29. Can he do it again? Doubtful...BJ: people remark on how they've overhauled the pitching staff...if you call stuffing it with retreads an overhaul! Cole Hamels has seen his peak come and go about three years ago. Matt Moore got lit up pitching for San Francisco last year...welcome to Globe Life Park at Arlington, where has-been pitchers with weak stuff go to get clobbered. (Sorry Matt...hope I'm wrong!) Doug Fister, Martin Perez, Mike Minor? They'll all be history by July, when I predict you'll see a lot of rookie pitchers auditioning for the Rangers. The bullpen was frightful last year and nothing has changed. Rougned Odor seems to think hitting 30 homers while batting .204 with 162 strike outs is some kind of achievement. It is, but not the kind he thinks.

N.L. EAST

Washington: GOOD JUJU: the main good juju the the Nationals have is that they've had bad juju so long that the law of averages has to catch up some time. They have a devastating one-two pitching punch in Scherzer and Strasburg. They have the best offensive lineup in the league when healthy. (Which is never, so far!) I know I've remarked upon this before but gaze upon this again and imagine an injury free, just typical year from all these guys:

LF Eaton (L)

SS Turner (R)

RF Harper (L)

3B Rendon (R)

2B Murphy (L)

1B Zimmerman (R)

CF Taylor (R)

C Weiters (S)

That lineup is classic. Speed at the top (world class speed in the first three!). Leftie-Rightie balance. Home run power. Good batting average. Excellent on-base percentages.

Except for Taylor and Weiters they're all All Stars. They even have super rookie Victor Robles ready to come take an outfield position if somebody gets hurt again.

Now that they have a serviceable bullpen, the Nats have the best shot at a title since they were the Montreal Expos in the early '80s with Andre Dawson, Warren Cromartie, Tim Raines, Gary Carter and Ace Steve Rogers.

BAD JUJU: defense is below average. And, there's a lot of pressure in knowing that they have to win this year before they lose either Harper or Rendon (and possibly both) to free agency next year.

Philadelphia: GJ: resurrection. Also see above. Jake Arrieta could show their young staff how to be cocky bad asses on the mound. BJ: still a year or two away from being really good. And still miles behind Washington.

New York: GJ: their starting pitchers are (maybe) healthy? I know all the Mets fans hate me for forecasting doom and gloom and bad arms for their beloved Amazins. But I've still got PTSD from the Astro/Red Sox Playoff disasters of 1986 so go fondle your Dwight Gooden baseball card! BJ: the staff imploded last year. What makes you think all those arms are gonna come back all pinky winky groovy woovy this year? You really think Harvey is going to remember how to pitch? And I know you're counting on Yoenis “Hamstring” Cespedes too much.

Atlanta: GJ: Ronald Acuna looks like the next Willie Mays. Wait a minute. Correction. Looks like the next Andruw Jones. Let's not insult anyone by trying to compare them to Willie Mays. But of course they won't bring him up for three weeks so they won't “start the clock” on his free agency qualification. Get rid of that stupid rule, MLB! BJ: they lost a whole crop of international players as punishment for cheating their asses off on signing rules. That will continue to haunt them. Also, they have a lousy pitching staff.

Miami: GJ: (this space left intentionally blank) BJ: I don't have enough ink in my printer so I'll pass. The embarrassment of baseball, this team. I'm just so sorry that it had to be Derek Jeter overseeing this disaster.

N.L.CENTRAL

Chicago: GOOD JUJU: the best of an interesting and competitive division. The Adorables have youth, depth, speed, power, starters, relievers, glamour boys (Bryant), funny superstars (Rizzo), mindlessly talented players who swing at everything and miss most of the time but once in awhile connect (Schwarber, Baez), and a gnarly manager who keeps them loose (Maddon). They are really good and they know it. They also have a front office that is not too stuffy to engage in a one-upsmanship game of pranks with a reserve infielder (Tommy La Stella). BAD JUJU: unh. Maybe they're a little...well...too Adorable? Makes you want to watch some nasty team like the old St. Louis Gas House Gang grind their faces into the dirt for a few innings.

St. Louis: GJ: okay...these Cardinals are far, far from the Gas House Gang, except for Yadier Molina. He'd have fit right in. But they have a winning tradition that's been thwarted the last couple of years and that makes them dangerous. They went out and got Marcell Ozuna and he's the real deal: power, average, a gold glove, great attitude. They have Carlos Martinez and Luke Weaver in the rotation as a 1-2. Mike Maddux is a great addition as pitching coach. But...BJ: they're counting on Adam Wainwright (already on the DL) and Michael Wacha for two rotation spots and Wainwright is running on fumes and savvy and Wacha has a bad shoulder. Starter Miles “Lizard King” Mikolas ate a live lizard. I'm not sure if that's good or bad juju but it's something to consider.

Milwaukee: GJ: they almost made the Wild Card last year in a surprising showing. Can Manager Craig Counsell keep them grinding? I think he is turning out to be a fine little manager. Skinny, high energy infielders who played better than their physical talent would ever have predicted often make good managers. (Billy Martin, Larry Bowa, Ozzie Guillen) I already mentioned them getting Yelich and Cain. BJ: Zach Davies is a good starter. Corey Knebel surprised as a closer. Don't look too closely at the rest of their staff. With the encouraging showing by their offense, it's a shame the Crew couldn't mortgage the farm a little to improve their pitching. And...oh yeah...they still have “He Who Must Not Be Named” on their squad. Your team leader is that guy?

Pittsburgh: GJ: they were once a high energy, hard scrapping bunch of tough hombres. Then they traded McCutcheon and Cole, and Marte went steroid on them and they let their chances dribble away. This is a team and city betrayed by their management. (And Marte I guess). Come on Pittsburgh! What do you think all that luxury tax penalty from the big dogs is for? Upgrading your luxury boxes? BJ: this team made it's own Bad Juju.

Cincinnati: GJ: they are a middle of the pack team in offensive categories but the worst in pitching. Their good juju comes from players like Votto, Duvall, Schebler, Suarez and Gennett who all hit with power. They also get a big juicy juju boost from the magnificent Cincy fans in one of the best baseball towns ever. BJ: oh my does that pitching staff stink! Luis Castillo is the only real stand out so far. Maybe some of their kids will start showing promise, but that's a tough park to learn how to pitch in.

N.L.WEST

Colorado: GOOD JUJU: no, that's not a mistake. I'm sticking my neck out and saying the Colorado Rockies will win the West over the heavily favored Dodgers and last year's runner-up Arizona. And I agree, I may have lost my mind. I just smell an upset. My main olfactory misgivings relate to the Dodger's sudden vulnerabilities. I'll go into those in the next section, but first...Reasons for the Rockies!

*they won 87 games last year, and they're young.

*their stars all came back and their young pitchers are a year more experienced after being pretty damn good last season.

*they have a scary offense with two MVPs in Blackmon and Arenado.

*close to having the best defensive infield in baseball.

*the additions of Wade Davis and Brian Shaw solidify a bullpen that is now a true team strength.

*did I mention that they're young? Translation: they're on the way up, not down.

*Bud Black is a really good manager.

I see the Rockies winning 95 games and taking a very close race against the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. BAD JUJU: the Curse of Coors Field still haunts the Rockheads. Thin air and that big field build a false sense of offensive wonderfulness in a team that tends to crash at sea level, while the pitchers develop a permanent wince. But it doesn't seem to affect Arenado, and the pitchers finished ...surprisingly...in the middle of the pack of the MLB in ERA. All things considered...get ready for a Rocky Mountain High this year!

Los Angeles: GJ: as I said...the Dodgers are vulnerable. But first, the good news. They still have Kershaw, the best pitcher in creation, who is coming off a startlingly dominant Spring Training performance. They have incredible depth and can plug holes anywhere. They have good new arms waiting in the wings if any of their starters falter. They still have Dave Roberts, just the right manager to counter any team tendencies to go Hollywood. BJ: here's another list:

*Kershaw has missed time with back trouble 2 seasons in a row and back trouble is the tolling bell for power pitchers. It's the kind of problem that must be managed full time and never really goes away.

*their number 2 starter, Rich Hill, is effective but pushing 40 and blister-prone. Ryu is also coming off injury. They are probably going to have to go to the cupboard for help from young starters like Walker Buehler.

*Justin Turner, the big bat in the middle of the order, broke his wrist and is out...they say for a month but who knows? Wrist injuries often prove to affect hitters for quite awhile. Also, Corey Seager didn't play shortstop hardly at all this spring because of a bad elbow. What if he can't play short?

*if Turner and Seager aren't effective for stretches, they have to depend on Bellinger, Puig and two old guys...Chase Utley and Matt Kemp. The old guys are worthy dudes but...well... old. Bellinger was exposed by Houston as somebody you can get out with breaking stuff. He won't hit 39 homers this year. And Puig is great but just a little bit crazy.

*Kenley Jansen is one of the 3 best closers in baseball but they lost their best setup guy, Morrow, to the Cubs.

*the Dodgekins had a strange year in 2017. They went on a tear and won a whole bunch of games in a row and then went cold and lost a whole bunch. Then they dominated in the Playoffs but lost in heartbreaking fashion in the Series. Two possible outcomes: Will there be a hangover? Or will they go into the regular season a bit complacent, shall we say? There is a lot of pressure on this group to win it all. If they don't, management just may start buying big free agents next year and moving out the underachievers.

Arizona: GJ: they showed up big last year. Goldschmidt is a perennial MVP candidate. Their pitching got a whole lot better. BJ: did they miss their chance? For half a season they had a terrifying lineup with J.D. Martinez hitting in the hot dry air of Phoenix in between Goldy and Lamb. But J.D. moved on and they replaced him with little speed guys.

It might work but I think the opposing pitchers of the league won't be sorry. Greinke starts the season on the DL with a groin strain. How bad? That's an injury that can recur easily...every time he hops off the mound to field a bunt. I think they'll be in it but I don't pick them to win it.

San Diego: GJ: the Padrinos struggle on. But now they have Eric Hosmer and some hope for improvement. But hope is just hope...they need statistics. BJ: speaking of which, they finished near the bottom of baseball in almost every major offensive category! (They tied for 13^th in steals and finished 4^th in LOB...because nobody could get on base in the first place!) They also finished bottom half in pitching, despite playing in that pitcher's park. Them is some bad stats, Hoss!

San Francisco: GJ: the Gigantics seemed to be ready to restore order with the addition of Austin Jackson and Andrew McCutcheon in the outfield and Evan Longoria in the infield. Finally! Some offense! But wait a minute...BJ: those new guys have already played their best baseball for other teams. They're older now and they may have something left, but this team needs to get younger. I know that management was going for the glory one more time before dismantling, but they are approaching the luxury tax zone with a team that is over the hill, and they don't have a good enough pitching staff either. And now the real blow...Madison Bumgarner takes a liner to the finger of his pitching hand and breaks his pinkie. If he was a hockey player or a football player you'd wrap it up and he'd be out there tomorrow. But MadBum is a pitcher. You need all your fingers (unless you're Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown of the old Chicago Cubs). Bum will miss at least two months and can't even throw to stay in shape. What a disaster! Just like last year when he went down and they tanked! And there's more incredibly BAD JUJU! Samardzja goes down with a bad pec muscle! That leaves them with one dependable starter... (who wasn't even dependable last season)... Johnny Cueto, to carry the load.

AND IN SUMMATION:

Predictions:

AL East: New York

AL Central: Cleveland

Al West: Houston

Al Wild Cards: Boston, Los Angeles Angels

AL Pennant: Houston

NL East: Washington

NL Central: Chicago Cubs

NL West: Colorado

NL Wild Cards: Los Angeles Dodgers, St.Louis

NL Pennant: Washington

World Series Winner: Houston

Today's Stumper: only one player was in the major leagues when Babe Ruth was playing and also was in the majors when Hank Aaron was playing. Who was it?

Hint: Cubs

PS: only ninnies use Google for questions like this….

LET THE SEASON BEGIN!!!

--Marco