MARCO'S
BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2018: STATE OF THE GAME!
The
murky fog of free agent possibilities is lifting at last and there is
some indication of how each team is approaching the coming struggle.
At last your humble correspondent can emerge from hibernation, eat a
berry or three and put claw marks on his favorite pine tree.
First...RULE
CHANGES!
Baseball
wants to speed up this nineteenth century game (which moved twice as
fast in the nineteenth century by the way) and compete with football,
video games and social media. This, even though baseball actually
works better with cell phones than most sports because the Millenials
have plenty of dead time to peruse their devices while lounging
around watching the national pastime, waiting for something to
actually happen. (Don't worry, youngsters, it eventually will!) Also,
the typical football game lasts 3 hours and 10 minutes while the
average baseball game lasts 2 hours and 57 minutes. (But of course,
every once in a while the Yankees and Red Sox link up for a 4 ½ hour
marathon that terrifies the front offices. Also, football games are
played mostly in the day, not mostly at night when the kiddies have
to be abed by 9:00...i.e. about the 6th inning.)
The
immediate counter measures are: only 6 visits to the mound allowed,
(not including pitching changes) also known as the Gary Sanchez
rule. He's the catcher for the Yankees and his quota of mound visits
is about 6 per BATTER!
The
players piss and moan about not being able to change the signs when a
runner is on second base. (Somebody might steal a sign? In baseball?
Come on!) Somebody ought to point out to these players that while
they are sitting on the bench between innings the catcher can wander
over to his pitcher, who is probably counting how many sunflower
seeds he can cram into his cheek, or maybe whose cap he's going to
place a wad of bubble gum on the top of, and say something
like...”Hey Dude! If they get a runner on second I'm going to the
third sign I flash, okay?”
The
Fathers of Baseball wanted to install a pitch clock so the hurlers
had to pitch every twenty seconds but couldn't muster the sand to
infuriate the pitchers quite that much. If they really wanted to cut
time from the game they'd shorten the commercial breaks between
innings...(they chiseled a little off but not enough). Knocking one
thirty second commercial time slot out of each half inning would mean
a net gain of 8 minutes per non-extra inning game. (But don't hold
your breath on this one.)
They
should also ban batting glove adjustments when the batter hasn't even
swung at the pitch. (The Nomar Imperative they could call it!)
PITCHING
MORPHS!
You
might notice a distinct movement toward blurring the line between
starters and relievers now that analytics have proved beyond all
doubt that an average pitcher loses effectiveness the third time
through the order. Hitters are so good that they can adjust to a
pitcher's style, timing and stuff by the third time they see him on a
given day and they start to square up his pitches. So get ready for 4
inning outings by starters and then a parade of relievers, as we saw
in the World Series last year.
I
think this is going to strain bullpens to the breaking point and
there will be a reaction. I wouldn't be surprised to see clubs push
for roster adjustment...go to 26 players on their active roster just
to get one more pitcher available. They can't really live with a
three man bench. With one bench player having to be an extra catcher,
that leaves virtually no flexibility or injury protection for the
lineup.
So...more
flexible bench players...guys who can catch, play outfield and
infield positions. Also, more two way pitchers...guys who can come
out of the bullpen and pitch an inning and also play a corner
outfield position or first base or something.
They
won't want to risk their pitchers in the batter's box much longer
either, and with less bench players available, managers won't be able
to pull double switches in the National League all the time. Will the
NL lose the war against the DH and cave? I think probably so.
Also
get ready for rampant abuse of the 10-day disability list. Right now
it's just a way for managers to shuffle players back and forth to
keep their pitching staffs fresh. It's a joke and should be regarded
as such.
One
positive pitching development: more curve balls coming. Everyone
noticed that despite the fastball revolution with velocities going
up, up and up, the top five curve ball teams all made the playoffs
last year.
Houston's
breaking balls exposed the Dodger hitters, too. “Oh...you seem to
like that wonderful “launch angle” you've learned with that fly
ball uppercut? Try uppercutting this looping curve that starts at
head height and then dives inside on your ankles. Set another strike
out record, why don't you, Mr. Bellinger!”
Ted
Williams once said... being the ultimate hitting scientist of all
time...that because the pitcher was throwing from a mound, the
trajectory of his pitch was a few degrees on a down slant. Therefore,
the batter should compensate with the same degree of up slant when he
swung in order to achieve the most efficient contact with the sweet
spot of the bat. This would result in more line drives and long fly
balls.
Well,
baseball has finally agreed with the Splinter and everybody is
talking about an upward trajectory “swing path” to get the ball
in the air. Especially with the new gym bodies they've grown and
smaller parks and juicier baseballs. It's a new home run era.
But
of course “The Kid” was using the trajectory of fastballs
to justify his swing path. If the pitchers now turn to curve balls
and sliders and splitters to counter the new fly ball swings they're
facing, you'll get less long bombs and more strike outs, grounders
and weak pop ups. Pitchers aren't stupid. All hitters can hit
fastballs in this game or they wouldn't have ever made it to the
bigs. Give 'em junk and change speeds...that's the ticket to pitching
salvation now. Throw the fastball high, inside...anywhere but over
the plate. Use it to incite bad swings or set batters up for the
breaking pitch.
Then
maybe we'll go back to the hitting philosophy of Tony Gwynn...hard
grounders through the hole. Or Ichiro...hit a double hump slow
grounder and beat it out with your speed. Or even all the way back to
the 1890's for “hit 'em where they ain't” Wee Willie Keeler
of the old Baltimore Orioles who learned to hit “Baltimore Chops”
off the hard pan infield and scamper down to first while the ball was
still hanging in the air.
Hey...it's
a game of adjustments.
FREE
AGENTS
San
Diego got Eric Hosmer which was a good move because
they have to give their fans somebody to watch while they continue to
lose. It's a bad move because now they have to move Will Myers
from first base back to the outfield.
Minnesota
got Lance Lynn, thus dropping out of the Jake Arrieta
sweeps. Jake went to the Phillies (my personal prediction) who
had the bucks. The Twins
wanted him but couldn't pay.
The
Brewers needed him bad but coughed up fur balls at the price.
The
Washington Nationals entertained the idea of signing Arrieta
to go with Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and
Tanner Roark and finally win a playoff before they have to bust
up that roster of underachieving stars. But if they signed Jake for 5
years, where would they get the money to save at least one of their
two upcoming big free agents...Harper and
Rendon... next year?
I
think the California Angels should have made an offer. They
only have Trout for another couple of years and they need to
win now. They went out and did an excellent upgrade on the offense
and defense by adding Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler and
Zack Cozart...studly veterans all. Their bullpen is much better.
But they seem to be counting too much on Shohei Ohtani being
the second coming of Randy Johnson or something. (He's
stinking it up in Spring Training and should really go to the minors
for awhile and learn a better splitter to go with his
fastball...which hitters are now blasting on moon launches regularly.
He can't hit major league pitching yet, either.) The Halos really
don't have a very good rotation, either. An Arrieta would have really
improved their outlook for a Wild Card. (I doubt they were ever going
to beat Houston for the Division this year.)
The
Phils are in one of the top markets in the MLB and only have a $93
million payroll even after they pay Arrieta and Carlos Santana.
The reason they ponied up for Arrieta? The Phillies went .500 the
second half last season and had a 0 run differential after being -92
in the first half. They are a team on the rise. Lots of good young
players they aren't paying yet. They've focused on good on-base guys
like Santana, second sacker Cesar Hernandez and
shortstop J.P.
Crawford. They just signed top prospect Scott Kingery to a long
term deal before he's even debuted! (He'll play multiple positions to
start with.) Watch for the Phils to finish second in the East this
season now that they have Arrieta to go with new Ace Aaron Nola.
Next year, the Phils are ready to sign one of the big free agents:
Harper, Machado or
Donaldson. It'll be nice
to be able to talk about the Phils again without wincing.
Darvish
went to the Cubs (for six long years...if he lasts) which
gives the Cubs a very strong starting rotation to benefit from their
top notch defense, bullpen and youth.
The
Boston Red Stockings finally came to Jesus with J.D.Martinez
and got the home run hitter everybody said they needed. One
problem...the Sox finished last in the Amreican League with 168
homers last year, as I'm sure everybody has heard by now. Mitch
Moreland hit 22 and Hanley Ramirez hit 23. J.D. hit 45. If
Martinez takes over at DH as is expected, and Mitch and Hanley share
time at first as is also expected, one of those guys isn't in the
lineup every game. So if they produce exactly as they did last year,
you have to subtract 22 or 23 homers from the expected total team
production. That means the Sox have only added to their homer total
by about 23 homers if Martinez plays all season and is just as potent
as he was in homer haven Chase Field for the Diamondhumps. (I
sincerely doubt it...he'll come back to earth with about 33, but I
hope I'm wrong!) Both Moreland and Ramirez had injuries off and on
last season, so they may do as well or better, but I don't think
Martinez (who is very injury-prone) will hit as many homers playing
in Fenway.
If
they really wanted to maximize their long ball possibilities, the Sox
would put J.D. in left field, move Benintendi to center and
bench Bradley (who hit 17 dingers). But that would severely
weaken their defense in the outfield, where Bradley reigns supreme
and Benintendi is very good playing the Monster in left.
Martinez is a well known Dr. Strangeglove. Oh well, since somebody
will probably get hurt anyway, the Sox are better off with 3 injury
prone players, all things considered.
By
the way, that trade the Red Sox made sending Travis Shaw (31
homers, 101 rbi's .862 OPS) to the Brewers for reliever Tyler
Thornton (he of the shoulder surgery and zero games played since
the trade) is looking like the worst call since Jeff Bagwell
for Larry Andersen back in 1990.
The
only big pitcher left on the market is Alex Cobb of the
suffering Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have made a habit of
developing one terrific pitcher after another and getting rid of them
to save money when they are at their peak. The Brewers or the Angels
need him most. Whoops! The Orioles just signed him. That should make
the O's a little more dangerous, but still not enough to challenge
Boston or New York this year.
Pity
the Rays and move them to New Braunfels, Texas, right between Austin
and San Antonio (4 and one half million people ...number 15 metro
area in USA.) They can build an express special high tech train from
downtown Austin to downtown San Antonio that stops and delivers ball
fans who can leave their damn cars at home.
And
poor old Mike Moustakis...the Greek Moose had a career year
and figured on getting a good payday in free agency this year. So he
(and his complicitous agent Scott Boras) turned down one year at $17
million from his home club Kansas City and went jauntily out into a
market that didn't want to give up a draft pick to get him, with
other third sackers like Machado and Donaldson and Rendon coming up
for sale in 2019. So Mike went crawling back to the Royals for $5 ½
million for 1 year. Good move for the Royals cause they can trade him
in June for more young players or let him go at the end of the season
and see if he signs somewhere else and gives them another draft pick
after all.
For
Moose...just another good player who didn't read the market.
And
now...a quick rundown of seasonal prospects for every team based on
the ultra-scientific principle of GOOD/BAD JUJU. (Teams are
listed in the order in which I believe they will finish.)
AL
EAST:
New
York: GOOD JUJU: every team they play should thank them for the
windfall of brilliantly pairing Judge and Stanton
together as the Twin Towers. What a stellar baseball attraction! Can
you spell...”attendance records”? Also...best bullpen in
baseball! BAD JUJU: rookie Gleybar Torres who was supposed to
be the wunderkind at second base is back to the minors. Ain't ready
yet.
Boston:
GJ: offense looks much better! BJ: 4 pitchers out already. Starters
Rodriguez, Wright, and Pomeranz plus super-closer
Kimbrel (his new baby daughter has had 2 surgeries for a heart
defect. God Bless her and the Kimbrel family.)
Toronto:
GJ: the rotation is better than they expected and Aaron
Sanchez may pitch blister-free! BJ: still haven't replaced the
offense of Bautista and
Encarnacion and Tulowitzski is hurt again (and again, and
again, and again…)
Baltimore:
GJ: they haven't caved in and traded Machado or Adam Jones
yet. BJ: they haven't caved in and traded Machado or Adam Jones yet.
And Zach Britton blew out his Achilles. And they gave Chris
Davis a 7-year, $161 million contract two years ago. Last season
he batted .215 with 26 homers and 195 strike outs.
Tampa
Bay: GJ: they are actually trying to find a new stadium location
where their fans can actually get to it.
BJ:
they are fielding a double A offense. Who gets traded next?
AL
CENTRAL:
Cleveland:
GOOD JUJU: they all want to win for Terry Francona. They're so
much better than the competition in the Central that they can hold
down the workload on their starters (read: Corey Kluber) and
save them for the playoffs. BAD JUJU: they will miss free agent
emigres Carlos Santana and especially reliever Brian Shaw.
Minnesota:
GJ: lots of home runs in that lineup. Byron Buxton looks like
a number one pick finally, and is the fastest runner and best center
fielder in baseball. Lance Lynn really helps that rotation. BJ: still
lack enough pitching to win big. Just lost their shortstop Jorge
Polanco to cheating juice steroid testosterone consumption. (“I
never knowingly took 8000 ccs of PEDs...” Ho-Hum!)
Chicago
White Sox: GJ: they've done a terrific job of turning their aging
stars into top prospects for the rebuild. They are a year away but
watch out for outfielder Eloy Jimenez (from the Cubs),
outfielder Luis Robert and right handed pitchers Michael
Kopech and Alec Hansen.
BJ:
pitching is very iffy. The kids will have to be good if the Sox are
going to cash in.
Kansas
City: GJ: they are entering the long dark twilight of rebuilding.
There is no joy in Mudville. BJ: bad contracts for Alex Gordon,
Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel and others. Big trade for Soler
didn't pan out. Is Raul Mondesi going to be good or just a
tease? No Hosmer, Cain or Wade Davis? Man, it sucks to be a
small market team!
Detroit:
GJ: are you kidding? They're picked to finish below the Royals! BJ:
no relief in sight. As if Detroit didn't have enough suffering, now
the Tigers are doomed to an agonizing stretch of bad baseball teams.
And much as I love him and honor his history as one of the great
hitters of all time, Miguel Cabrera is owed $186 million over
the next 6 years and will turn 35 in April. The Tiger's organization
will be dragging that anchor around for quite a while.
AL
WEST:
Houston:
GOOD JUJU: All Hail the Bayou Beasts! The Astros finally sit atop the
baseball world and it doesn't look like they want to relinquish that
seat anytime soon. They went out and traded for Gerrit Cole
from Pittsburgh...he of the fastest average fastball in the game. Now
their rotation is among the strongest in the majors. And their system
is still loaded with talent. And they wisely extended Altuve's
contract by 5 more glorious years! If any player ever earned his
money...BAD JUJU: the bullpen is only average. McCann is
showing his age at catcher. Untested Derek Fisher is slated
for left so Marwin Gonzalez can be a super utility man again.
Can the rookie speedster come through? But even if all the above
mentioned slip up, Houston should still steamroll to the Division
title at the very least. They are that strong.
Los
Angeles Angels: GJ: I praised them up top. They now have a
potent offense and one of the best total defenses in the game. (Cubs
are very close though. If it wasn't for Schwarber they'd be
number one!) BJ: they don't have enough pitching. They are thinking
of going to a 6-man rotation to make it easier for Ohtani. That means
an overworked bullpen (which was very good last year).
Oakland:
GJ: there
is no real reason for me to pick Oakland this high. I'm just tired of
myself making the same picks everybody else is and it's time for
Oakland to surprise us again and get good. They have some young
players on the brink: outfielders Dustin Fowler and
Boog Powell, infielders
Jorge Mateo and
Franklin Berreto and pitchers
Yusmeiro Petit and
A.J.Puk (what a name!) BJ: no
number one or even number two type starter… tons of strikeouts in
that lineup in exchange for a few long balls.
One
note on the Oakies: I like that despite playing in the worst park in
the majors, with no real fan support and no money, and no real chance
to win big...the A's play with fierce pride and spirit.
Seattle:
GJ: great
everyday lineup filled with talented offensive players like Cano,
Cruz, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura and
now Dee Gordon to bat
lead off. (But
because of Cano he has to learn to play the outfield.) BJ: the
above are getting a little long in the tooth. And their pitching is
very thin. They are still counting on
King Felix, but
sadly, Hernandez got hurt in Spring Training and probably doesn't
have that much left. If everything breaks right and they can stay off
of the injured list, they could contend...but I doubt they will.
Texas:
GJ: Adrian Beltre is
a wondrous Baseball Beastie...I just love watching him. Andrus
had his best offensive year ever at age 29. Can he do it again?
Doubtful...BJ: people
remark on how they've overhauled the pitching staff...if you call
stuffing it with retreads an overhaul! Cole Hamels
has seen his peak come and go about three
years ago. Matt Moore got
lit up pitching for San Francisco last year...welcome to Globe Life
Park at Arlington, where has-been pitchers with weak stuff go to get
clobbered. (Sorry Matt...hope I'm wrong!) Doug Fister,
Martin Perez, Mike Minor?
They'll all be history by
July, when I predict you'll see a lot of rookie pitchers auditioning
for the Rangers. The bullpen was frightful last year and nothing has
changed. Rougned Odor
seems to think hitting 30 homers while batting .204 with 162 strike
outs is some kind of
achievement. It is, but not the kind he thinks.
N.L.
EAST
Washington:
GOOD JUJU: the main good juju
the the Nationals have is that they've had bad juju so long that the
law of averages has to catch up some time. They have a devastating
one-two pitching punch in Scherzer and Strasburg. They have the best
offensive lineup in the league when healthy. (Which is never, so
far!) I know I've remarked upon this before but gaze upon this again
and imagine an injury free, just typical year from all these guys:
LF
Eaton (L)
SS
Turner (R)
RF
Harper (L)
3B
Rendon (R)
2B
Murphy (L)
1B
Zimmerman (R)
CF
Taylor (R)
C
Weiters (S)
That
lineup is classic. Speed at the top (world class speed in the first
three!). Leftie-Rightie balance. Home run power. Good batting
average. Excellent on-base percentages.
Except
for Taylor and Weiters they're all All Stars. They even have super
rookie Victor Robles ready to come take an outfield position
if somebody gets hurt again.
Now
that they have a serviceable bullpen, the Nats have the best shot at
a title since they were the Montreal Expos in the early '80s with
Andre Dawson, Warren Cromartie, Tim Raines, Gary
Carter and Ace Steve Rogers.
BAD
JUJU: defense is below average. And, there's a lot of pressure in
knowing that they have to win this year before they lose either
Harper or Rendon (and possibly both) to free agency next year.
Philadelphia:
GJ: resurrection.
Also see above. Jake Arrieta could show their young staff how to be
cocky bad asses on the mound. BJ: still
a year or two away from being really good. And still miles behind
Washington.
New
York: GJ: their
starting pitchers are (maybe) healthy? I know all the Mets fans hate
me for forecasting doom and gloom and bad arms for their beloved
Amazins. But I've
still got PTSD from the Astro/Red Sox Playoff disasters of 1986 so go
fondle your Dwight Gooden baseball
card! BJ: the staff imploded last year. What makes you think all
those arms are gonna come back all pinky winky groovy woovy this
year? You really think Harvey
is going to remember how to pitch? And I know you're counting on
Yoenis “Hamstring” Cespedes
too much.
Atlanta:
GJ: Ronald Acuna
looks like the next Willie Mays.
Wait a minute. Correction. Looks like the next Andruw
Jones. Let's not insult anyone
by trying to compare them to Willie Mays. But of course they won't
bring him up for three weeks so they won't “start the clock” on
his free agency qualification. Get rid of that stupid rule, MLB! BJ:
they
lost a whole crop of international players as punishment for cheating
their asses off on signing rules. That will continue to haunt them.
Also, they have a lousy pitching staff.
Miami:
GJ: (this space left intentionally blank) BJ: I don't have enough ink
in my printer so I'll pass. The embarrassment of baseball, this team.
I'm just so sorry that it had to be Derek Jeter
overseeing this disaster.
N.L.CENTRAL
Chicago:
GOOD JUJU: the
best of an interesting and competitive division. The Adorables have
youth, depth, speed, power, starters, relievers, glamour boys
(Bryant), funny
superstars (Rizzo),
mindlessly talented players who swing at everything and miss most of
the time but once in awhile connect (Schwarber, Baez),
and a gnarly manager who keeps them loose (Maddon).
They are really good and they know it. They also have a front office
that is not too stuffy to engage in a one-upsmanship game of pranks
with a reserve infielder (Tommy La Stella).
BAD JUJU: unh.
Maybe they're a little...well...too
Adorable? Makes
you want to watch some nasty team like the old St. Louis Gas House
Gang grind their faces into the dirt for a few innings.
St.
Louis:
GJ: okay...these
Cardinals are far, far from the Gas House Gang, except for Yadier
Molina.
He'd have fit right in. But they have a winning tradition that's been
thwarted the last couple of years and that makes them dangerous. They
went out and got Marcell
Ozuna
and he's the real deal: power, average, a gold glove, great attitude.
They have Carlos
Martinez
and Luke Weaver
in the rotation as a 1-2. Mike
Maddux is
a great addition as pitching coach. But...BJ:
they're
counting on Adam
Wainwright
(already
on the DL) and
Michael Wacha
for two rotation spots and Wainwright is running on fumes and savvy
and Wacha has a bad shoulder. Starter Miles
“Lizard King” Mikolas
ate a live lizard. I'm not sure if that's good or bad juju but it's
something to consider.
Milwaukee:
GJ: they
almost made the Wild Card last year in a surprising showing. Can
Manager Craig
Counsell
keep them grinding? I think he is turning out to be a fine little
manager. Skinny, high energy infielders who played better than their
physical talent would ever have predicted often make good managers.
(Billy
Martin, Larry Bowa, Ozzie Guillen)
I
already mentioned them getting Yelich
and
Cain.
BJ: Zach Davies
is a good starter.
Corey Knebel
surprised as a closer. Don't look too closely at the rest of their
staff. With the encouraging showing by their offense, it's a shame
the Crew couldn't mortgage the farm a little to improve their
pitching. And...oh
yeah...they still have “He
Who
Must
Not
Be
Named”
on their squad. Your team leader is that
guy?
Pittsburgh:
GJ: they
were once a high energy, hard scrapping bunch of tough hombres. Then
they traded McCutcheon
and
Cole, and
Marte
went steroid on them and they let their chances dribble away. This is
a team and city betrayed by their management. (And Marte I guess).
Come on Pittsburgh! What do you think all that luxury
tax penalty
from the big dogs is for? Upgrading your luxury boxes? BJ: this
team made it's own Bad Juju.
Cincinnati:
GJ: they
are a middle of the pack team in offensive categories but the worst
in pitching. Their good juju comes from players like Votto,
Duvall, Schebler, Suarez and
Gennett
who all hit with power. They also get a big juicy juju boost from the
magnificent Cincy fans in one of the best baseball towns ever. BJ: oh
my does that pitching staff stink! Luis
Castillo
is the only real stand out so far. Maybe some of their kids will
start showing promise, but that's a tough park to learn how to pitch
in.
N.L.WEST
Colorado:
GOOD JUJU: no,
that's not a mistake. I'm sticking my neck out and saying the
Colorado Rockies will win the West over the heavily favored Dodgers
and last year's runner-up Arizona. And I agree, I may have lost my
mind. I just smell an upset. My main olfactory misgivings relate to
the Dodger's sudden vulnerabilities. I'll go into those in the next
section, but first...Reasons for the Rockies!
*they
won 87 games last year, and they're young.
*their
stars all came back and their young pitchers are a year more
experienced after being pretty damn good last season.
*they
have a scary offense with two MVPs in Blackmon
and
Arenado.
*close
to having the best defensive infield in baseball.
*the
additions of Wade Davis
and Brian
Shaw solidify a bullpen
that is now a true team strength.
*did
I mention that they're young? Translation: they're on the way up, not
down.
*Bud
Black is a really
good manager.
I
see the Rockies winning 95 games and taking a very close race against
the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. BAD
JUJU: the
Curse of Coors Field still haunts the Rockheads. Thin air and that
big field build a false sense of offensive wonderfulness in a team
that tends to crash at sea level, while the pitchers develop a
permanent wince. But it doesn't seem to affect Arenado, and the
pitchers finished ...surprisingly...in the middle of the pack of the
MLB in ERA. All things considered...get ready for a Rocky Mountain
High this year!
Los
Angeles: GJ: as
I said...the Dodgers are vulnerable. But first, the good news. They
still have Kershaw,
the best pitcher in creation, who is coming off a startlingly
dominant Spring Training performance. They have incredible depth and
can plug holes anywhere. They have good new arms waiting in the wings
if any of their starters falter. They still have Dave
Roberts,
just the right manager to counter any team tendencies to go
Hollywood. BJ: here's
another list:
*Kershaw
has missed time with back trouble 2
seasons
in a row and back trouble is the tolling bell for power pitchers.
It's the kind of problem that must be managed full time and never
really goes away.
*their
number 2 starter, Rich
Hill, is effective but
pushing 40 and blister-prone. Ryu
is also coming off injury. They are probably
going to have to go to the cupboard for help from young starters like
Walker Buehler.
*Justin
Turner, the big bat in
the middle of the order, broke his wrist and is out...they say for a
month but who knows? Wrist injuries often prove to affect hitters for
quite awhile. Also, Corey
Seager didn't play
shortstop hardly at all this spring because of a bad elbow. What if
he can't play short?
*if
Turner and Seager aren't effective for stretches, they have to depend
on Bellinger, Puig
and two old guys...Chase
Utley and
Matt Kemp. The old guys
are worthy dudes but...well... old. Bellinger was exposed by Houston
as somebody you can get out with breaking stuff. He won't hit 39
homers this year. And Puig is great but just a little bit crazy.
*Kenley
Jansen is one of the 3
best closers in baseball but they lost their best setup guy, Morrow,
to the Cubs.
*the
Dodgekins had a strange year in 2017. They went on a tear and won a
whole bunch of games in a row and then went cold and lost a whole
bunch. Then they dominated in the Playoffs but lost in heartbreaking
fashion in the Series. Two possible outcomes: Will there be a
hangover? Or will they go into the regular season a bit complacent,
shall we say? There is a lot of pressure on this group to win it all.
If they don't, management just may start buying big free agents next
year and moving out the underachievers.
Arizona:
GJ: they
showed up big last year. Goldschmidt
is a perennial MVP candidate. Their pitching got a whole lot better.
BJ: did
they miss their chance? For half a season they had a terrifying
lineup with J.D. Martinez hitting in the hot dry air of Phoenix in
between Goldy and Lamb.
But J.D. moved on and they replaced him with little speed guys.
It
might work but I think the opposing pitchers of the league won't be
sorry. Greinke
starts the season on the DL with a groin strain. How bad? That's an
injury that can recur easily...every time he hops off the mound to
field a bunt. I think they'll be in it but I don't pick them to win
it.
San
Diego:
GJ: the
Padrinos struggle on. But now they have Eric Hosmer and some hope for
improvement. But hope is just hope...they need statistics. BJ:
speaking of which, they finished near the bottom of baseball in
almost every major offensive category! (They tied for 13th
in steals and finished 4th
in LOB...because nobody could get on base in the first place!) They
also finished bottom half in pitching, despite playing in that
pitcher's park. Them is some bad stats, Hoss!
San
Francisco: GJ: the Gigantics seemed to be ready to restore order
with the addition of Austin Jackson and Andrew McCutcheon
in the outfield and Evan Longoria in the infield. Finally!
Some offense! But wait a minute...BJ: those new guys have already
played their best baseball for other teams. They're older now and
they may have something left, but this team needs to get younger. I
know that management was going for the glory one more time before
dismantling, but they are approaching the luxury tax zone with a team
that is over the hill, and they don't have a good enough pitching
staff either. And now the real blow...Madison Bumgarner
takes a liner to the finger of his pitching hand and breaks his
pinkie. If he was a hockey player or a football player you'd wrap it
up and he'd be out there tomorrow. But MadBum is a pitcher. You need
all your fingers (unless you're Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown
of the old Chicago Cubs). Bum will miss at least two months and can't
even throw to stay in shape. What a disaster! Just like last year
when he went down and they tanked! And there's more incredibly BAD
JUJU! Samardzja goes down with a bad pec muscle! That leaves them
with one dependable starter... (who wasn't even dependable last
season)... Johnny Cueto, to carry the load.
AND
IN SUMMATION:
Predictions:
AL
East: New York
AL
Central: Cleveland
Al
West: Houston
Al
Wild Cards: Boston, Los Angeles Angels
AL
Pennant: Houston
NL
East: Washington
NL
Central: Chicago Cubs
NL
West: Colorado
NL
Wild Cards: Los Angeles Dodgers, St.Louis
NL
Pennant: Washington
World
Series Winner: Houston
Hint:
Cubs
PS:
only ninnies use Google for questions like this….
LET
THE SEASON BEGIN!!!
--Marco
