Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2017: Spring Baseball Kisses the Boo Boo

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2017: SPRING BASEBALL KISSES THE BOO BOO

I'm in recovery from post election nausea and box fever.

My wife somehow convinced me that it was time to move my aged ass out of our two story house of the last 14 years so I wouldn't keep landing on it as I fall down stairs in my moments of dotage. She seems to be as sure footed as a mountain goat. (A cute little mountain goat of course.) But I can't seem to drink coffee and talk on the cell phone and walk down the stairs at the same time. I have no idea why.
I keep plunging to my death in more and more spectacular avalanches.

That and our house being uncomfortably in the flood plain (with Onion Creek across the street periodically looking like the Ganges in full flood) finally motivated my Viking wife to make one supreme effort to move three blocks up the hill to a new, one-story town house. Thus the boxes. We've filled up about a thousand of them and are starting to load up the Conestoga. I'm just glad she didn't insist on moving to Costa Rica to get away from Trump.

But suddenly it's time for pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training! I'm saved! Something to occupy my mind while I try to decide if I really need to keep 6 used tuxedos. And enough books to re-start civilization if Kim Jong Un blows us up.

Instead of worrying about the Bowling Green Massacre I am so relieved that the Texas Rangers didn't sign free agent Jose Bautista. It would have been hard to root for him. Instead Jose re-signed for one year with his old team in Toronto where I can continue to despise his bat flipping hot doggery. I notice that The Mets kept Yoanis Cespedes and the Orioles kept Mark Trumbo and I am grateful for this new sense of team continuity that slightly permeates baseball culture.

Of course Edwin Encarnacion went to the Indians, making them the strongest club in the AL. (Over the Red Sox and the Blue Jays.) And the World Champs, the Chicago Adorables, have to defend their title without their center fielder and lead off hitter Dexter Fowler, who got stolen by their NL Central rivals the Cardinals in some sort of payback for the Justin Heyward take-away of last year. They also watched Aroldis Chapman recamp to the New York Yankee bullpen.

But the Dodgers, in some sort of spasm of actual front office intelligence, kept two of their strongest players in third sacker Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen. I can mindlessly pack up six U-Haul moving boxes while day dreaming about the Dodger's chances of repeating as NL West Primeros this season...

LA really needs to win one this year or next. They missed a great chance when they had both Kershaw and Matt Greinke pitching at a high level. They mishandled Greinke's contract negotiation and lost him and last season Kershaw's back acted up. Back trouble is a huge warning sign that a power pitcher's prime is ending.

The Dodgeheads have strong defense up the middle with Grandal catching, Corey Seager at short, Joc Peterson in center and the new addition, Logan Forsyth coming over from Tampa Bay to play second. Power at the corners with Turner and Adrian Gonzalez. Help for Kershaw with young arms Maeda and Urias and old pros Kazmir and Rich Hill to fill out the rotation. They even got a set up man for Kenley with Sergio Romo bringing his slider south from San Francisco.

Some people thought they should have upgraded all the way to Minnesota's second baseman Brian Dozier instead of settling for Forsyth. Dozier somehow hit 42 bombs while playing in that cold Yellowstone Park up in Target Field. And he's only 30. But that would have meant giving up yet another handful of prospects and that minor league depth is still remarkable in the Dodger's organization. They're bringing 65 guys to camp!

With their new found clubhouse chemistry thanks to Mr. Sunshine Dave Roberts I see the Heads maybe having... “The Year.”

LA's competition hasn't done enough. The Giants signed Mark Melancon to be closer, but one guy isn't enough to fix their horrible bullpen. It helps but not enough. They also don't have any offense...again. They keep relying on guys who keep getting hurt.

The DiamondHumps severely underachieved last year. Greinke found out the difference between pitching in a pitcher's ball park vs. that homer dome in Phoenix. (It's almost exactly 2 runs on your ERA, Matt.) The Humps will fight it out for third with...

The Colorado Rockies. They have a hellacious lineup. They got Ian Desmond from Texas to give them a scary good infield with Arenado at third, Story at short and LeMahieu at second. Ian will try to learn first base. (* ALERT: Ian Desmond just broke his hand on a Spring Training inside pitch. 8 weeks out.)

I actually resent LeMahieu for sitting out the last week of the season to protect his batting average from Danny Murphy...who was trying to help his team win by playing. Polish up that batting crown LeMahieu...set it next to a picture of Ted Williams to remind you of your lameness.)
Of course, offense is not the problem in Colorado, RockHeads...it's the pitching! Rockies apologists are claiming that they have a bunch of fresh young arms to rekindle the flickering Colorado baseball flame. Well, they better throw real hard because we know what happens to breaking ball pitchers at elevation. I still say go sinker ball if you're going to pitch in Denver.

San Diego Padres...they lost their football team in San D so now maybe the fans will get more interested in their disaster of a ball team. Won't help.

Moving West to East for a change, The NL Central has already been awarded to the Cubs, but I see possible trouble. For one thing, that starting staff had a great year last year and one of the reasons was David Ross, now retired. Ross framed pitches, especially for Lester. All the pitchers loved him. Willson Contreras can hit and has a great arm but he's not yet a good receiver. That will make a diff to those starters.

Also, the loss of Fowler leaves the Little Bearsie Wearsies with no real leadoff hitter. And who plays center now? Heyward? Syzyzur? The Cubs are short in the outfield.
They made up for the loss of Chapman by signing Wade Davis and Kojie Uehara.

The Cardinals should make up their minds about what kind of offensive team they should be. Either get some power or get some speed. They have a bunch of guys who are in-betweeners. Still, with their pitching talent they are the main threat to Chicago.

Pittsburgh insulted their great star Andrew McCutcheon all winter with trade rumors and then moved him to right. They did little or nothing to bolster their pitching staff. I've just about given up on them. Kansas City and Cleveland showed how to win with a small market team (at least for one or two seasons before you lose everybody to free agency) but the Pirates seem like perennial “Not Quites”.

Cincy Reds had the worst pitching staff imaginable last year. Truly execrable. Now they've lost their $50 million insanity-signee Homer Bailey. Small market teams can't afford to keep that kind of money on the books for non-productive players. They pay Votto a lot too, but at least he delivers. The Reds will compete for last with...

The Milwaukee Brauners. I refuse to pay attention to this team until they get rid of Kid Steroid.

In the NL East the Fabulous Floundering Metskies are ready to disappoint again thanks to a tease of a starting staff. They can either be the greatest collection of arms ever assembled or the youngest collection of burnt out arms ever assembled.

Two years ago I predicted that the Met's pitchers would take turns going down with arm trouble. Hate to say I told you so. Zach Wheeler is back after elbow surgery that took two full years to recover from. Think he's going to be lights out right away? Think again. Harvey (with that stupid Dark Knight nickname) turned into a head case and passed it off as thoracic nerve syndrome. Well okay maybe he was hurt. Maybe he's well now. But when you try to throw it through the side of the barn every pitch...things break down.

Ask Jacob DeGrom. He had the baseball world swooning at his buggy whip fast balls two years ago. At 28 he's had only 3 years in the majors before going under the knife. Likewise Matz. And Noah Syndergaard, who pitched a terrific, dominating game in a losing effort in the Wild Card game against Bumgarner and the Giants...he's nursing an elbow full of bone spurs. Just a matter of time.

Ask Ye Not for Whom the Bell Tolls, Mets fans...it tolls for your pitching staff. (Watch for this sign in the stands in New York this year: “Bring Back Bartolo!”)

The Nationals made one of the stupidest trades I've seen...3 of the top pitching prospects in baseball were in their system and they gave them all up for who?...Aroldis Chapman? Chris Sale? Andrew Miller? (They could have had any of them for those prospects.) No, for Adam Eaton of the White Sox! OVERPAID! So now they have a good leadoff hitter with no power who can play decent defense and nobody to rebuild the pitching staff. If they'd gotten a star, maybe I would have said they're going for it this year and they had to pay. But they got the wrong guy for those arms.

Still the Nats may make the Playoffs because they and the Mets inhabit a weak sister of a division with 3 rebuilding clubs...Atlanta, Florida and Philadelphia. Hard NOT to win some games when you play teams like that 19 times each during the season.

Also, the Nats have an interesting young player named Trea Turner who runs very very fast and can play center or shortstop for them. He could rev up their aging lineup. If Danny “Boy” Murphy has another spectacular year at second and Bryce Harper awakens from his 2016 snooze the Nats could do it this year.

Ooops! Slight interruption here. We just spent a week moving to the new house and I forgot that I can barely set up my own computer. Had to get the son to come up from San Antonio to plug in the right cords and the cable guy to rewire the new house (or something...I can't keep track of what these tech guys are up to.)

Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah...the American League Spring First Look...

If you noticed in the National League rundown, the primary candidates for baseball competence are exactly the same as last year: Washington and New York in the East, Chicago and St. Louis in the Central, L.A. And San Francisco in the West. It's almost a sure bet that the 5 playoff teams will come from that group.

The American League has at least a degree of doubt, mainly because the teams in the East are much closer in relative talent and the West teams are also closer, but mostly in team flaws that should keep the race close.

The Central should be a runaway however, with Cleveland asserting its new-found dominance over the fading Royals and Tigers and especially over the rebuilding Twins and White Sox.

Cleveland will be underrated this year because...well because they're Cleveland and not Boston or New York. Just remember this team came within a workout-room-rain-delay- pep-talk of knocking off the Adorables in a seven-game series with only 2/5s of a pitching staff and no Michael Brantley. Now they have Brantley back (maybe?...that shoulder injury is tricky)and have added the best clutch power bat in the game (now that Big Papi has hung it up) in Edwin Encarnacion. The starters (Carrasco and Salazar) are healed now and the bullpen (with multiple innings freak Andrew Miller)is very, very strong. Their young Prince Lindor is ready to have his third year break-out.*

*A quick aside: did you ever notice how many great players have a break-out year in their third season? I mean the real superstars: Ted Williams (.406 season in 1941), Stan Musial, Willie Mays, George Brett...all the way back to Ty Cobb. The pattern for a lot of superstars seems to be: rookie year make a big splash, retrench in the second year while the league adjusts to them, break out into major dominance in the third season. Of course sometimes the first year is only a handful of games (Willie Mays went into the army for a season)and sometimes injury postpones the break out by a year or so (Bryce Harper, Mickey Mantle).
Following this pattern, I'm predicting Lindor and Houston's shortstop Carlos Correa are ready for their first big offensive season.

The Royals and Tigres will compete for second place...sadly. These are two great teams on the skids. At least KC made it to the top...briefly. But now their two big offensive guns Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer are in their walk years, as is their popular third sacker Moose Moustakis.(Watch the Yankees scoop up Hosmer and his left-handed bat...Hosmer will go up to the 40 dingers a year-range in the Stadium.) The Royals great three-headed monster in the bullpen has been decapitated with the loss of Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Their young starter Ventura was tragically killed. Swan Song for the 2015 champs...an admirable team in so many ways.

The Tigers still have a scary, veteran team on paper: Miggy Cabrera at first, Kinsler at second, Castellano at third, Iglesias at vacuum-shortstop, Upton and J.D. Martinez in the outfield, Victor Martinez at DH. The trouble is that those guys are rarely on the field at the same time because of constant, rotating injuries. Miguel Cabrera is still remarkably great, but fragile in the nether regions. Vmart is hurt all the time now. The whole team is aging and so well-paid that management has little room to augment.

And the pitching...can you believe this team could have had a rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Anibel Sanchez etc.? Now they have Verlander and some hopeful babies. The timing is all off, Tigers.

Maybe they can rally enough to make a bid for a wild card. I'd like to see them have one more shot at glory.

The Twins are rebuilding but somehow think that doesn't have to include pitching?? It's a shame Joe Mauer has to spend the rest of a distinguished career hitting singles for a last place club.

The White Sox have gotten a bunch of young, good prospects and are going to let them go out and play. More power to them. They at least accepted that they weren't a contender and did something about it ala the Cubs. Next they'll trade
Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera and starter Jose Quintana (at least by July). They just dumped Brett Lawrie to clear second base for Moncada. The White Sox will probably have a juggernaut in place by 2020.

A better race should be expected in the AL West because the Rangers have slipped a little, the Astros haven't added enough and the Mariners have completely overhauled their team to try to win something before Cano and Nelson Cruz are too old. Nobody in the division has enough pitching.

The Astros are counting on Keuchel to bounce back into Cy Young form. They are also assuming that Lance McCullers, Colin McHugh and Doug Fister are legitimate rotation fillers. (?)Big question mark by that statement. They think Giles can get his head screwed on straight and become a lights-out closer. I don't know, maybe he can but he sure didn't look that good last year.

Their big additions in the off-season were Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick. Both are low average/good power threats at this point in their careers. Beltran is exceedingly old but should be an ok DH most of the time. Reddick will strike out a lot but hit some dingers much like Colby Rasmus did for them last year. I rate these additions a C+. At least Reddick has a good arm in the outfield. I guess they're moving Springer to center?

The main thing you have to like about Houston's chances are their two superstars...Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Altuve especially can carry the team with his high average, high on-base and surprising power to go with stolen bases and good defense. Not to mention high level leadership and inspiration. (“If that little guy can go out and dominate, I've got to get my ass in gear!”) Just a great, great player. They need to rest him a little bit every now and then...he wore down in the stretch last year.

Correa is a talent bomb about to go off. If he gets his swing grooved you could see the second coming of young ARod...hopefully an unjuiced version. The Astros are also hopeful about Cuban import Yulieski Gurriel at third and rookie Alex Bregman at first. If those guys are as good as advertised, the 'Stros could be Da Bomb!

The fly in the Astro's ointment...besides their questionable pitching...is the Texas Rangers strange habit of beating the Holy Shit out of them in the season series.
Four years of both teams in the same League and Division: 2013 Rangers 17 wins Astros 2. 2014 Rangers 8 Astros 11. 2015 Rangers 13-6. 2016 Rangers 15-4. That's why the Rangers went to the playoffs the last two years. They dominated their chief rival.

The Rangers have spirit. They are led by a player who is finally getting the acknowledgment he deserves. I speak of Adrian Beltre. (And I still can't believe that the Red Sox let this guy walk after one season in 2010...Beltre had a season of .321/.365/.553 with 28 bombs and 49 doubles. The Sox had him and Vmart and Epstein let them go so they could play Youkilis and trade for Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Beltre and Martinez went on to star for Texas and Detroit respectively and Boston finished last 3 out of the next 5 years.)

Along with infield vets Beltre and Andrus the Rangers have some great young position players in right fielder Nomar Mazara and second baseman Rougned Odor. (They also have a potential star in Jurickson Profar if they can find a position for him. He may be able to hop around the field like Brock Holt of the Red Sox.)

I don't much like Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Gomez as the other outfielders because Choo is going to get hurt anyway and Gomez is a hotdogging hothead. They got Napoli to play first and he's good in the clubhouse and a nice long ball threat when he's not whiffing helplessly on sliders in the dirt.

The big catch (bad pun alert) and an addition that could make a huge difference is catcher Jonathon Lucroy coming over from Milwaukee. Lucroy is one of the top five catchers in the game. A clutch hitter; a steady defensive force. This is a major advantage for the Strangers.

Two problems: the pitching staff and the Disabled List.

The former is highly dependent on having Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish both pitching at a high level. Darvish was babied last year coming back from elbow surgery. He has to pitch more effective innings this year. Hamels totally fell apart and looked nothing like an Ace by the end of last year. He got lit up in the Playoffs. They need him to rally because the rest of the starters are very iffy.

The bullpen is hardly overwhelming either. They have three young power arms in right-handers Jeremy Jeffress, Keona Kela and Tanner Scheppers. Only Jeffress has had a decent season before....31 for 32 saves for the Brewers a couple of years ago. All of these guys throw hard but have put up miserable results. If they get hot the Rangers could be scary.

But it's the DL that's really scary. The Rangers have had epic injury problems the last few years. Most of their pitching staff, Prince Fielder, Profar, Choo...so many really serious injuries have decimated the team...and yet they come back and win two years in a row. Even with those major losses. Fate has to let up and even out, doesn't it?

I look forward to watching both the Astros and the Rangers play...I love Altuve and Correa and I love Beltre and Odor and a lot more of the players on both teams.

I will pick the Rangers to prevail in that division because
of their record of handling the Astros head to head. Also I think the Rangers pitching is a better bet than Houston's. (Unless Houston goes out and trades for a number one type starter before July.) Should be an excellent pennant race...especially because...

Seattle just might smoke them both! I mean, come on Seattle! If not now, when? The law of averages says Seattle can't keep screwing the pooch, season after season. I mean, everybody hates Safeco Field...especially hitters...but it can't hurt that young pitching staff any to have those fences so far away. I mean, Cruz and Cano can still reach them.

The Scariners have Cano, Cruz, Kyle Seager, and top flight additions Jean Segura at short and Carlos Ruiz (to platoon with Gosewich at catcher) along with a host of other new players who haven't learned to lose up there in the Northwest. I think they could do it.

The pitching has to get a lot better. Which is why I applaud the additions of Segura to play short and team with Cano in the middle and Ruiz to be a veteran steady hand for the pitching staff. That guy was a God for the Phillies pitching staff. He's old and slow and can't hit now but so what...did you see what Ross did for the Cubbies last year? The Mariners young staff needs a great game-calling catcher to nurse them along. And he just may revitalize King Felix and get another great year or two out of him.

I'm watching the Seattle RainGods this Spring...if they show signs of life early instead of waiting til August to make a move like last year I'll notify you!

The California Angels...Oh God what a disaster! They've surrounded their four good players (Trout, Calhoun, Pujols (DH only) and Andrelton Simmons (defense mainly) with aging mediocrity and a very weak pitching staff. I think management is desperate but they have too much money on the books with people like Pujols and Josh Hamilton (still!) to make much of a difference. So they take chances on young pitchers, professional bench warmers and aging vets. Once again Angels: WELCOME TO HELL!

If the Strangles don't watch out, Trout will leave in free agency and they'll have nothing to show for his Angels career but one playoff appearance. (3 games-and-out against the Royals in 2014...Trout went 1 for 12.)

Oakland is far from competitive but they are stirring. It will probably take them another year or two to finish the rebuild.

So far we have 6 possible playoff teams in two divisions. Not bad. Now we can add 4 more from the AL East...because who knows what the frick is going to happen over there?

Everybody is in love with the Red Sox because their pitching looks so much better with Sales coming over and improvement (perceived on paper only) in the bullpen. Mookie Betts is everybody's darling. They think Jackie Bradley Junior is going to hit 26 homers every year. (He's not.) They have enough power so that they won't miss Ortiz that much. Wrong...expect a major post-Papi hangover. Not everybody can come up in the big spot and deliver. Hanley and Mookie did a little bit last year, but they had Papi to lean on and scare the pitchers into throwing fast balls to the mere mortals of the lineup.

On the other hand, there is definite reason for optimism among the Fenway Faithful. I speak of Benitendi being an instant batting champ candidate in left. Brock Holt being a band-aid for any position. Hanley coming back strong from his outfield nightmare and playing a quite decent first base. (And Hanley hitting!) Porcello proving himself. Sale coming over. Price not being hurt that bad this Spring (!) Stephen Wright maybe being well enough to pitch his knucklers again. Good depth in the rotation. (Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Kelly). Xander Bogaerts establishing himself as a star at short.

Plus there might be a delightful summer birthday present with Blake Swihart. He's still learning to catch but he's getting better. They had to bring him up too early because of injury emergencies last time. Then he got hurt in the outfield. But he's always been a great switch hitter. Those in the know say he's a can't-miss star hitter. They might let him DH and fill in at catcher once in awhile just to get his bat in the lineup. (Especially from the left side because of all the right handed hitters in the Sox lineup and the lack of Papi.)

The Sox had problems at third base last year. This Spring they'll look at Pablo Sandoval again. From all reports, he's skinny, strong and ready to go long. They can always stick Brock Holt over there 'cause he always produces. (He was their best hitter in the playoffs last year.) And on the way up, they have the top third base prospect in the game in left-handed hitting Rafael Devers, the Dominican Dandy who hits with a lot of power and can handle himself around the bag. Devers is only twenty and can probably wait a year or two but he might be better than whoever else they try.

The keys for the Sox are: Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Craig Kimbrel and David Price.

Petey has to be the leader he's always been to pick up the Papi-slack. Hanley has to keep hitting in the clutch (yes, to pick up even more Papi-slack), Mookie has to be able to carry the team's destiny with his incredible talent (Papi-slack squared), Kimbrel has to be lights out as the closer to let the bullpen settle into a rhythm. And David Price has to keep pitching at a high enough level to steady the rotation and let Sale and Porcello pitch without too much pressure.

I just don't see how the Sox can fail to at least win a wild card, but then, they've proved me wrong before!

Toronto was close last year and they are tired of tasting the bitter fruit of defeat in the playoffs. They lost their big stick when Encarnacion took Cleveland's money over the Canadian dollars and high taxes.

Jose Bautista made himself look ridiculous a year ago when he informed the world before his free agent walk season that he wouldn't take a home town discount to stay in Toronto (where the friendly fences helped make him a home run star) and would be expecting a 5-7 year free agent contract at $20 million plus a year thank you very much. (Even though he's already 36!) All must bow to me and my transplendant excellence. (Insert bat flip here.) Chew on this Jose...nobody wanted you for more than one year. You were lucky to re-sign with the Jays for a one year $18 mil.

Troy Tulowitzki was healthier than usual last year (131 games) but just didn't click. 24 dingers is good but .254 isn't. This guy has gotten to play in two of the best hitter's ballparks in the majors and I think this has inflated our opinion of his prowess. Good player. Not a HOF candidate.

The team leaders are Josh Donaldson at third and Russell Martin at catcher and they are both very damn good. Martin should get some credit for what the Jays young pitchers did last year. That's the big hope with this team...the pitching staff...

Aaron Sanchez won the ERA title with 3.00. Marcus Stroman had a good WAR. Marco Estrada looked good with his change-up. They got key wins at the end of the season when they brought The Ancient One, Francisco Liriano to the Great White North. So there is reason for optimism. But if they think they're getting another 20-win season from J.Happ, they've been smoking too much medical Mary Jay.

Toronto looks like a formidable threat to Boston to win the division. I think both clubs will make the playoffs.

Last year the Baltimore Orioles faced those Jays in the Wild Card Game and lit a stink bomb when manager Buck Showalter decided to keep his lights-out closer Zach Britton in the bullpen to save him for....what exactly?
The Birds bring essentially the same roster back for another try. They plan to hit a lot of homers and hope the good bullpen can hold the fort. I think they lack depth and starters.

Less predictable is what the New York Yankees will do this year. Their starters are pretty good: Tanaka, Sabathia, Severino and whoever else. The bullpen is fantastic. They got Aroldis Chapman back (and get to keep the great prospects they got when they traded him to the Cubs.) Plus they have Betances and Adam Warren to set up.

The problem is the lineup. Projected middle of the lineup hitters are Matt Holliday and Chris Carter. Carter hit 41 homers for Milwaukee but struck out 202 times. He hit .222 and had a .321 OBP. That's really, really bad. Holliday has been a worthy performer in the game but at 37 he is playing out the string. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury show flashes but are basically middling first and second place hitters. Ellsbury especially has really disappointed since his days with the Red Sox. He doesn't hit, doesn't hit for power, and only steals 20 bases now. He hasn't topped 30 doubles since 2013. Warning to general managers: don't buy a player for 5-7 years if he's going to be over 33 or so by the end of the contract and his whole game is based on speed.

The Yankees are trying to bridge until their young players develop. Gregorius at short and Castro at second are already productive. They think lefty Greg Bird can be a good power threat at first. The most excitement is reserved for Gary Sanchez, who hit 20 bombs in his first 50 games last season. He may the next great Dominican player. Has catching skills too.

But in all sobriety, I don't think the Yankees will win the division this year. Not unless about half the roster has a career year. I just don't think they match up with Boston and Toronto yet.

Neither will the Tampa Bay Rays. And a half. Somebody should put this team out of its misery and move them to San Antonio or North Carolina or somewhere. I know I say that every year, but really, it makes me mad to watch a team scout so well and draft great pitchers and just not be able to keep anybody in free agent years. The Oaklands and Tampa Bays of the baseball world haven't been allowed to succeed because they have bad ballparks and rotten locations for their ballparks. The commissioner should step in and facilitate a positive change. Baseball has been too successful lately to be dragging around wounded-duck- franchises like this.

So my first look at the upcoming season counts 10 American League clubs that have a chance to make the playoffs. That's the kind of competition that makes the summer tick! Lots better than the National League, but the super teams even out: Chicago and Los Angeles in the National and Boston and Cleveland in the American.

Here are some top fives for your amusement:

Top five Little Miss Sunshines:

  1. Dave Roberts
4.Mike Trout
3.Adrian Beltre
2.Jose Altuve
and...

1.Mookie Betts

All time? Ernie Banks!

Top Five All Time Scary Brushback Pitchers:

5.Sal Maglie (“The Barber”)
4.Bob Gibson
3.Don Drysdale (he made Willie Mays hit the dirt virtually every time Mays came to bat against him. “If I didn't he'd absolutely kill me” was Drysdale's excuse. Willie never complained either. He knew better.)
2.Randy Johnson
and...

1.Carl Mays (Only pitcher to ever kill a man in major league baseball. (1920...Ray Chapman) Mays was demonized for years but this one event changed baseball profoundly. They outlawed Mays' favorite pitch...the spitball...and started bringing fresh white balls into the game more frequently which led to the end of the dead ball era and more hitting and homers.)

Top Five “Not Enough Mustard for that Hot Dog” Players:

    1. Carlos Gomez
4.Rougned Odor
3.Bryce Harper
2.Jose Bautista
and...

1.Jose Bautista

Top Five All time “Not Enough Mustard for that Hot Dog” Players:

5.Babe Ruth
4.Reggie Jackson
3.Ricky Henderson
2.TIE: Jeff (“Flaps Down”)Leonard and David Ortiz
and...

1.TIE: Jose Bautista and Leon “Daddy Wags” Wagner.(At least I think it was him. He played for San Francisco, St. Louis, the Cleveland Indians and the California Angels in the 60's. Hit around 30 taters a year. Big left handed hitter. When he'd get hold of one he'd hold a pose on his follow- through and shout out...”BATBOY!” Then he'd drop his bat and go into his home run trot.

UPDATES TO COME!

Monday, December 19, 2016

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: GREAT HITTERS AND THE BIG TRADE

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 GREAT HITTERS AND THE BIG TRADE

Great hitters can be divided into several categories. Sometimes a hitter is a member of more than one category. More on that later. Right now, let's talk about the basic varieties:

1/SCIENTISTS: Their bats are magic wands. They hardly ever strike out and they walk a lot because of their great batting eyes. They go the opposite way a lot for singles and they'd rather bat .330 than hit 30 homers.

EXAMPLES: Rod Carew, Pete Rose, Wade Boggs, Ichiro Suzuki (yes I know he doesn't walk as much but he fits this category otherwise), Tony Gwynn.

Of course the ultimate Scientist hitter is Ted Williams. But Ted and other scientific hitters like Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial and George Brett transcend the category because of their power. (See below)

2/GODZILLAS: These guys go for the long ball first and don't care if they hit .240 as long as they crush 40 balls a year over the fences. They strike out a lot. Unlike the Scientists, they can be pitched to....very carefully.
EXAMPLES: Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Ralph Kiner, Frank Howard and the modern versions like Chris Davis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Todd Frazier, Giancarlo Stanton and Nelson Cruz. (no bold highlighting for convicted PED users!)They make outs but everybody watches when they come up to the plate because they just might bust one and break up the old ballgame.

3/GODS: This category is reserved for the true Alpha Superstars of baseball lore. In addition to Ted Williams and his buddies mentioned above, they are multi-dimensional players who beat you in many ways. These are the guys who you absolutely don't want to face in a close game. Here are a few more...

EXAMPLES:

Willie Mays: he hit for a good average with lots of power and he could beat you on the bases as well. Then he'd go out and his defense would beat you.

Hank Aaron: Back in the sixties the Dodgers' great pitching staff would meet and go over the opposing team's lineup of hitters before each series and compare notes on how to pitch each hitter. When they'd play the Braves and get to Aaron there would be silence...nobody had a way to consistently get him out and nobody could ever get a
fastball by him. Ted Williams said Aaron was the most impressive fastball hitter he ever saw.

Mickey Mantle: People forget. If this guy hadn't been injured so much...if he'd taken a little bit better care of himself...if he hadn't had to play in one of the worst hitter's eras of all time...if Casey Stengel had let him steal bases...This guy might be considered the greatest all-round ball player of all time.

He was one of the fastest players in the history of baseball. He could have stolen 40-60 bases a year if they'd let him. He was also the most powerful home run hitter of his era...he's still up there with Giancarlo, McGwire and a very few others when it comes to tape measure shots. And the Mick put up batting averages like .365 and .353. He slugged over .600 six times, his on base percentage was
.421 lifetime and he finished in the top five MVP voting 9(!) times.
Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Jimmy Foxx: the best of the old timers who established home runs as the new offensive paradigm of baseball back in the twenties and thirties. Not many hitters have ever been able to hit 35-50+ homers every year and maintain an average of .350 or above at the same time. These guys did it year after year.

CURRENT PLAYERS WHO MAY EVENTUALLY BE CONSIDERED IN THIS CATEGORY:
Joey Votto: already a scientist, he batted well over .400 the second half last year with power and lots of walks.

Paul Goldschmidt: has power, good average most years, high on base percentage and base stealing ability.

David Ortiz: probably already has made it to God-ness. His average suffered when they started using the shift on him so much. He could have hit .400 if he'd gone for singles to the left side and sacrificed his power. The opposition would have probably taken that if they could have avoided the thunder.

Albert Pujols: his recent injuries have dimmed the glow of his spectacular years in the National League when he hit.330/35+ homers/125 rbis every year.

Mike Trout: looks like an all-timer if his average gets a little higher and he strikes out a little less.

Barry Bonds: Yes he was a God. But then, so was Shiva the destroyer.

I've got one more category of great hitters for you and in a way it's the most interesting of all...

4/SAVANTS: There are a few players who are truly great hitters that just seem to have been born that way. Oh sure, somewhere along the line a Dad or an Uncle or a Coach probably gave them some hitting pointers, but they had a basic ability to do the hardest thing in sport...consistently hit the ball with power and maintain a high average and on base percentage at the same time. They aren't really scientists and they share some interesting qualities.

For instance, they seem to be mostly affable, happy-go-lucky types who are sometimes pretty flaky or even goofy. They are popular with their teammates and the press. They can be surprisingly bad defensively and most of them aren't particularly good at other aspects of the game, but Oh Lord can they hit. And most of them could hit when they were very young.

EXAMPLES:

Miguel Cabrera: I'm very glad he won that triple crown so people will remember him. That is very, very hard to do in this day and age. He's hit over 40 doubles 5 times (including a year of 50 and a year of 52) and over 30 homers 10 times. He's batted in over 100 runs 12 times...every year when he hasn't been injured. His lifetime batting average/on base/slugging? .321/.399/.562 with four titles in both average and on base and 2 in slugging (.606,.636) He strikes out a hundred times a season so he's not a scientist. He's just one of the most natural hitters ever.

Manny Ramirez: He didn't track pitchers except with his baseball memory. He'd just amble up to the plate and wait for a pitch in the zone and then just launch it...right, center or left he didn't care. He'd just uncoil with that beautiful swing that terrorized pitchers. It seemed like you should have been able to fool him more but you really couldn't. He had awesome offensive stats. Who knows how much the drugs helped him? Can't forgive him or Bonds or the others, but Jeez it was something to watch them swing the bat.

Pedro Guerrero: Remember Pedro from the Dodgers of the '80s? Lifetime OPS .850. He finished in the top 5 MVP voting 4 times. He was a disaster in the field and a bozo on the bases (even though he could run fast enough to steal 20 bases a couple of times). But when he'd come up to the plate he was just one scary right handed Dominican power hitter, even playing in a lousy hitter's park like Chavez Ravine. Injuries cut his career short. He should have done some Dh-ing in the American League. He was very popular in the press because he would say what he felt and never shirk a question. Most of the other Dodgers of that era were very reluctant to open up so the reporters always wound up around Pedro's locker because they knew they'd get some good quotes from him. Kind of like a baseball Charles Barkley.
Vlad Guerrero: Another Dominican Guerrero right-handed power hitter. Lifetime OPS .931! Batted over .300 in 13 out of 15 full seasons and hit over 30 homers 8 times. 4 years with more than 200 hits. 10 years of more than 100 ribbies.

Unlike some of these other Savants, he wasn't one-dimensional. He had years of 37 and 40 steals and had one of the two or three most powerful right field arms in baseball in his day. Vlad (they called him “The Impaler”) learned to hit by swatting bottle caps with a broomstick growing up poor in a family of nine kids in Dominica. He was famous for swinging at balls out of the strike zone but still being able to hit them with authority. He once got a hit off a pitch that bounced in front of the plate. Always well-liked as a player, he had 8 kids by 5 different women.

OLD TIMER SAVANTS:

Yogi Berra: He wasn't a league leader in average or homers but he got a lot of rbis hitting behind guys like DiMaggio, Mantle and Maris. He didn't walk a lot but almost never struck out. (Only 3 seasons out of 19 with more than 30!)One of the most famous bad-ball hitters of all time.
He would swing at anything. One time Casey Stengel dressed him down for it and told him to “Think when you're up at the plate!” So Yogi went up to bat and took three straight strikes and came back to the dugout and told Casey “I can't think and hit at the same time!”

Babe Herman: You've probably read about this Brooklyn Dodger from the '30s getting hit on the head by a fly ball and once tripling into a triple play. (Base runners were staying put but Babe kept running until three guys were on the same base.) He was considered one of the biggest clowns in the game and was laughed at during his career, but he was a 6'4” leftie hitter who had seasons with batting averages of .381 and .393 to his credit. (Admittedly in the ridiculous seasons of 1930 and 1931 when the National League was playing with the ultimate rabbit ball and the League as a whole batted over .300)

Joe Jackson: One of the Black Sox of 1919 but also one of the best hitters ever. Lifetime average .356. Consecutive years of these averages....387/.408/.395/.373. A leftie, Babe Ruth said he copied Jackson's swing and that's how he was able to hit so many homers. Jackson was kicked out of the game just when the lively ball came into vogue in 1920 or he would have hit lots more homers. As it was he hit over 20 triples 3 times.

Jackson was a simple country boy who was probably illiterate. Ty Cobb, who had befriended his fellow Southerner when Jackson first came up, did a head trip on Joe one year when they were neck and neck for the batting title. Cobb pretended to be mad at Joe for some reason and stopped talking to him. It bothered Joe so much that he slumped and lost the title. (Sounds about right for Cobb.)

More Mickey Mantle: Mick was a Baseball God who was also a Savant. He was a real country bumpkin when he came up and even though being a switch hitter implied some kind of sophisticated approach to hitting, Mantle admitted that he went up to the plate trying to hit a homer every time. (He exaggerated because I watched him lay down a perfect drag bunt once. He'd use bunts to break himself out of slumps.)

One year at the All Star Game, Ted Williams praised him for the great season Mantle was having and went into a long technical discussion of how Mantle was hitting so well. “Are you keeping your hands back longer? Are your hips coming through just before the swing? Are you seeing that breaking pitch and adjusting?”...stuff like that fascinated Scientist Ted.

Well Mantle says “Gee, I don't know Ted.” Mick starts thinking about it and winds up going into a huge slump for the rest of the season trying to figure out what technique he was using.

I could go on and on about Mickey Mantle but I won't.
Instead, I'll talk about the Big Trade at the winter meetings.

The Big Trade: Of course it's the Red Sox/White Sox trade...The White Hose send leftie Ace Chris Sale to Fenway for the top prospect in baseball (according to popular opinion) Cuban Yoan Moncada and pitching prospect Michael Kopech. (He of the 102 mph fastball) The Scarlet Stockings threw in two more prospects just to sweeten the pot.

So what about this trade? Yes the Red Sox needed another pitcher and I guess they got the best one available. They have a surfeit of lefties in their rotation with Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez and now Sale. Somebody has to go. Still, the Red Sox want to win now and getting an Ace like Sale can only help that for the next two years or so. But what about the future? Just how good are Moncada and Kopech?

Well Kopech can bring it, no doubt. But he's been in A ball
and his control is not top notch and the Red Sox have been disappointed in their other great pitching prospects (like leftie Henry Owens who just hasn't been able to develop the control that a major league starter needs. I'm sure they would have rather traded Owens to the White Sox but no dice.)

On the whole, the Red Sox have drafted well when it comes to position players and have screwed the pooch with their young pitchers (since Lester and Buchholz in 2007). I don't think they wanted to wait around for another three years while Kopech learned control. Remember Daniel Bard? He threw fast too....he's now struggling in the St. Louis Cardinals' system.

Moncada is another story. The guy just looks like a future superstar. However, he's Cuban and hasn't played enough what with all the defecting and all. The Red Sox just blew $70 million to get the rights to Rusney Castillo...another Cuban who everybody said couldn't miss. Speed, power, defense blah blah blah. Turns out the guy has no bat speed and is average in minor league ball at best.

Well they spent $60 mil on Moncada and he's supposed to be better but how can you be sure? It's hard for these Cubans to adjust to the USA. In 19 major league at bats Moncada has struck out 12 times. He probably needs a couple more years in the high minors to figure it out. He has terrific speed and could be a great stolen base threat right now...if he could get on base. Also, the Red Sox ...if they could play him at all...were going to have to play him out of position at third instead of his natural second base. (Pedroia is too good and too important for their infield chemistry to move him.)

The question becomes...try to win with Sale right now? Or wait for the youngsters a little longer and give yourself a chance to win big two or three years from now? (When vets like Hanley Ramirez, Pedroia, Price and Pablo Sandoval will probably be on the downside of their careers)

Here's how I evaluate Moncada (who I love, really.)

WHO WILL YOAN MONCADA BE IN 3 YEARS?

1/ 5% chance he's a combo of Robbie Cano and Tim Raines (power, defense, speed and moxie...hopefully with a better hustle ethic than Cano)

2/10% chance he's Robbie Cano with more speed (who'd complain?)

3/15% chance he's Tim Raines (stolen base leader but without the great power of Cano...but still a HOF candidate)

4/40% chance he's Carl Crawford (.290/.330 on base/ .430 slug... less than twenty homers a year, less than 100 ribbies a year but a stolen base league leader...but will only be at this peak until his speed goes after about 6 years.)

5/30% chance he's Rusney Castillo (White Sox win the ultimate Xmas present...a box of dirt!)

So you've got a 30% chance Moncada is some kind of Hall of Famer and 30% he's a bust...and a 40% chance he's a much better than average player for a few years. Meanwhile Chris Sale is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball for sure. I say the Red Sox made the right choice...but so did the White Sox. The White Sox had to break up that team and start over.

The fly in the ointment for the Red Sox is that you can't trust pitchers and their delicate arms. Sale has been pretty injury free except for a small problem early last season. But he throws funky across his body and he's skinny and he's a leftie and a hot-head. Those kinds of pitchers rarely last that long. His fastball has lost 2 or 3 mph in the last couple of years. Most Aces only have a window of 5-8 years where they truly dominate. Sale has had 5 top years. Price is already over that hump and so is Verlander...but they're still great, valuable pitchers. So is Sale. Even if he's not as dominant as he has been for the last few years, he's better than anybody else the Red Sox could have added to their starting staff short of Bumgarner or Kershaw or maybe Scherzer. And I think he's got two truly dominant years in that arm...and the Red Sox have a better chance of winning a World Series or two with him than with Moncada and Kopech.

Sale still has 3 years on a very affordable contract but you have to add in the $60 million investment in Moncada which it turns out they spent for trade bait.

If the Red Sox want to really up their chances of winning another Championship they'd grab Edwin Encarnacion for 3 years. The loss of Ortiz is huge. The middle of their lineup is just not the same and Encarnacion is the only other player out there with that knack of hitting the prime time dramatic homer. Plus, Edwin always kills the Red Sox and what if the Yankees get him?

I understand that a 5 year deal would be too much risk with a player in his mid-thirties and Boston still has to rebuild the bullpen after losing Uehara, Tazawa and Zeigler. But how much money will another title be worth to marketing in New England?

Go for the jugular, Dombrowski. And Merry Xmas Baseball Fans Everywhere!




Sunday, November 20, 2016

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 WRAP-UP

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 WRAP-UP

I know you've read enough about that great 2016 World Series so I'll put in my two cents and get it over with:

1/The Cubs are not the greatest team that ever lived. They beat a very game Cleveland squad that had just lost two fifths of their starting staff. The got shut out twice by those same Clevelanders and were lucky to pull out the seventh game.

2/Yes, it's a big deal that the Cubs finally won it all. And about time. No, it's not “the greatest story in sports history” as some sportswriter on nitrous oxide maintained.

3/Game 7 was not the greatest game 7 ever played. But it's definitely in the conversation:

The Cubs showed guts and the resolute heart of a champion coming up off the mat after that Raje Davis home run dagger they got.

The Indians made that game a classic because of the guts and heart they showed coming back from a 5-0 deficit to eventually tie it up.

It was the unexpected nature of that Raje Davis homer that made the game a memorable classic. It was off superman, Aroldis Chapman, who was asked to pitch tired and gave it his best shot. Kudos to him for giving it up for the team. He came back and got them out in the ninth without his best stuff. And kudos to the Indians pitchers Kluber and everybody else who had to pitch on short rest to give their team a chance.

The two best game 7s of all time? I vote for:

#2/ Twins over Braves 1991...the all time pitcher's duel classic had incredible drama all the way as two Hall of Famers (or should be, Jack Morris!)competed their butts off. Smoltz went out on his shield after a noble performance. Jack Morris...refused to lose!

#1/ Pirates over Yankees 1960...the Yankees scored 55 runs to the Pirates 27 in the series and won their three games by scores of 16-3,10-0 and 12-0. The Pirates won 2 one-run games and had a team ERA of over 7. So it seemed like the Pirates were getting killed.

Game 7 at Pittsburgh: The Pirates led 4-0 after two. The Yanks went up 5-4 after Berra's homer in the sixth. They increased the lead to 7-4 in the eighth, but in the bottom of the eighth things got strange.

With one on Bill Virdon hit a double play grounder to Tony Kubek at short. The ball took a very bad hop and came up and hit Kubek in the Adam's apple. That ball almost killed him. He couldn't talk for a week afterwards and had to come out of the game. Another single and a sacrifice produced one run. Then Clemente hit a chopper to first and beat it out, scoring another run to leave the Pirates only a run behind. Then came the Raje Davis moment when unheralded pinch hitting back up catcher Hal Smith hit a 3-run homer over the very deep left field wall at Forbes Field. The fans went nuts and now the Buccos led 9-7.

But the mighty Yankees had the right stuff. In the top of the ninth Mantle and Berra each drove in a big run to tie the score.

You know what happened in the bottom of the ninth. Bill Mazeroski hit a Series-winning walk off...the only homer ever to end a seventh game.

So there you have a Game 7 with 5 lead changes (or ties) ending with the ultimate moment. It featured 5 Hall of Famers (Maz, Clemente, Mantle, Berra and Whitey Ford who didn't pitch in the game). It didn't have a dramatic rain delay but it had a little noted weirdness: nobody on either team struck out.

I watched this game in a bar outside Pittsburgh that my Dad talked my way into so I could see the last few innings. I was eleven and I'll never forget it.

The greatest World Series game of all time was the sixth game of the 1975 series between the Reds and the Red Sox.
If it had been Game 7 there would be no contest, because this was also the greatest game ever played period. At least in the modern era. Why?

Because the two teams played so well. The game had great play after great play...hitting and fielding...much cleaner than these other games mentioned above. It had the dramatic pinch hit 3 run homer by Carbo and it had that epic walk off ending in extra innings. It had Rose coming to bat late and saying to the Red Sox catcher Carlton Fisk...”this is the greatest game I've ever played in! Isn't this a great game?” I always loved that.

This year's awards:

I thought the Managers of the Year Francona and Roberts were the best choices. They both had their teams playing over their heads. Especially Francona.

Rookies of the Year: Corey Seager....Yep. Michael Fulmer the Tiger pitcher...I guess so but not much competition this year.

Cy Young: I would have given it to Zach Britton...if a closer should ever be considered for the Cy Young, and plenty have...he should have been. In the NL I had Scherzer too.

MVPs: NL Bryant...well I guess so....He's one of the Adorables, after all. Nolan Arenado (41 dingers, 139 rbi's)deserved some support. I had it for Daniel Murphy.

AL Trout definitely had a case but Altuve was a one-man team for Houston and was a leader in batting average AND steals AND had 99 RBIs as a second baseman. I claim Ortiz was number two, even as a DH, because of his OPS (1.021 led baseball) and his leadership.

That's all I got for now...next up is an article about hitting savants I call MANCHILD IN THE PROMISED LAND...that's coming up in a week or so. Forgive the Teaser.

Best to you all and Happy Thanksgiving.

Marco




Wednesday, November 2, 2016

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: ACES UP FOR GAME 7

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: ACES UP FOR GAME 7

THINGS YOU DIDN'T KNOW DEPARTMENT:
The highest card in the playing deck is the “ace.” The fighter pilot who shot down at least five enemy planes was the “ace.” The number one pitcher on a team is known as the “ace”.
All of these definitions lead back to Asa Brainerd...pitcher for the Cincinnati Red Stockings from 1868-1870. Asa became famous because he won at least 65 straight games for the Stockings....the best team in baseball in those early days of the professional sport. In the 1870's other teams started referring to their best pitcher as “our Asa” and to rival hurlers as “their Asa”. This became shortened to “ace” and the term has been used ever since to denote that special starter on a baseball team.

Tonight is Game 7 of the World Series. Yeah, I know. Kind of sends shivers up your spine. No matter who you root for, it's always fun when it comes down to that ultimate game. The infamous “no tomorrow” game.

I predicted that the Cubs would come back from that 3 games to 1 hole they dug for themselves by not being able to hit the breaking balls that the Indians pitchers were so carefully placing out of the strike zone. Trouble is, the Indians couldn't pitch Kluber, Miller or Cody Allen every inning. The Cubs got to look at Bauer and Tomlin for the second time in three days and they learned. Boom Boom Boom.
Lesser lights of the Indian's bullpen....Boom Boom Boom.

So now you gotta give the Cubs the momentum going into this last game. They also have the league ERA leader going in Stork Hendricks. He's a cool customer and an Ace. He better be good because Joe Maddon pitched Chapman 3 innings on Sunday and another inning and a third on Tuesday night. He's thrown well over 60 pitches in three days and that's double his usual work load. He's a big strong cat but he gets wild when he's tired. So Hendricks better go seven because Maddon doesn't have any faith in the rest of his bullpen. They might as well not be on the roster. Rondon? The invisible man.

The Cubs had a 5 run lead on the way to a 9-3 victory last night. Since when do you bring your closer into a game that you have a 5 run lead in? In the 7th inning? That means Maddon has no faith at all in his other pitchers. Did he lean too hard on Chapman going into the last contest? We'll see.

He might get cute and bring in Lester to pitch to some people but I hope there's nobody on base because Lester can't hold runners. Hell, he can't even throw to first base! HE'S GOT YOUR BASIC PSYCHOLOGICAL BLOCK. Like Steve Sax who couldn't throw to first on a routine ground ball. Or Dale Murphy, a two time MVP who had to move from catcher to the outfield because he couldn't throw the ball back to the pitcher without double clutching over and over.

But the Cubs hitters are finally feeling good about themselves. They fattened up their averages on the weak sisters of the Indians rotation. Schwarber is Dhing in the second spot in the lineup and he makes that lineup much scarier. Also, they've finally been hitting breaking balls.

But now Francona has Kluber on 3 days rest....not bad for a stud Ace like him. He also has a completely well rested Wade Miller ready to go 3 or more innings and closer Cody Allen rested as well. The 6th game blow out allowed him to hold them back.

I think the Cubs just got out-managed in the pitching department.

Kluber may not be sharp enough to fool them again with those breaking pitches. Or he may go Bumgarner on their ass. We'll see.

Kipnis has kind of been taking the lead in the Indians hitting lately while Lindor has faded. I think Rajai Davis will be back in center after the debacle that was Tyler Naquin last night, don't you? A play that ugly could have permanent psychic ramifications to the team. (I'm talking about the first inning pop-up by Addison Russell that fell untouched by human hands in right center. Cost 2 runs and the ballgame, essentially. Naquin can pinch run.

I am definitely jacked up for this game. It might be a classic...you just never know in baseball. One of these teams will at last be destiny's darling. The other one will lapse back into their multiple decade-long funk. The Baseball Gods must decide. The Cubs should go sacrifice a goat or something.

I say it's the Indians 5-4.

Over and out ball fans!

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Marco's Baseball Blog-o-roonie 2016: PREDICTION DEVASTATION OF THE DEPLORABLES!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016: PREDICTION DEVASTATION OF THE DEPLORABLES

Okay, so I blew it. But 2 for 6 still bats .333, right? (Before the two League Championships series. But I would have picked the Blue Jays over the Indians if I knew they were playing and I'd have picked the Cubs over the Dodgers...so I might actually be 2 for 8 when all is said and done...Oh never mind...I failed, I admit it.) But it's not my fault...the election was rigged and now you, my followers, must start the revolution and avenge me on the lying sluts who conspire against me!....no, wait a minute, I'm supposed to be contrite here.

Let's examine this mess.

I started out great with San Francisco and Bum-God-ner ascending Olympus once again and throttling the Mets in a predicted pitcher's duel classic over Thor and his fastball lightning bolts. It was epic and Zeus beat the Asgardians after the pitiful Giants batters at least ran up the pitch count by hitting some foul balls off Noah.

Bum-God-ner don't give a shit about no pitch counts. A nine inning shut out. Wasn't that a great game? And the rookie replacement third baseman Gillaspie hit one out to win it for Bum.

Toronto vs. Baltimore....and I'm one for two. I picked Baltimore because they had Zach Britton and his unhittability in the bullpen, which is where he stayed when Mr. By-the-Book Showalter refused to put him in the game even in the extra innings!

Instead, Buck brings in his starter Ubaldo Jiminez who is as high strung as an overly inbred race horse and is famous for either throwing balls in the dirt and walking everybody or grooving fastballs. Tonight was groove night.

After the first batter took a belt-high ball to left Bucky should have recognized the signs....”hmmm, 90mph fastball absolutely put on a tee for first batter....maybe rethink this.” Nope. Leave him in, he was hot in September. (But he wasn't relieving in September!)

Now Josh Donaldson (whose hair dresser must be a gay Comanche judging from what's left of his scalp) hits the first pitch, which is a 90mph fastball dead over the middle of the plate...first and third. Now, surely, Buck will bring in the closer?

Nope. Leave Ubaldo in. The Law says don't bring in your closer when you don't have the lead...or in a tie game. He might get offended that he's not in a save situation. Don't bring him in even when he is the best pitcher in the AL this year with the lowest ERA, average against, everything. He never blew a save. He has the best sinker (98mph!) ever! No, don't bring that guy in! Not even when you bring the infield in when you absolutely have to have a double play or a strikeout to continue your season. I know, Ubaldo is facing right handed hitters. But right handed hitters don't hit a sinker any better than lefties with Britton. He is a strikeout/ground ball pitcher par excellence and overwhelming all year.

So Ubaldo throws his third straight 90mph fastball down the freaking middle of the plate and Encarnacion hits it two miles. ( I even called it to my wife who could care less) Bye-Bye playoffs for Baltimore.

Worst managing sequence I've ever seen.

Cleveland gave Boston a thumping. Actually the Red Sox were competitive in two of the games but couldn't get the clutch hit. Mr. Screw-what-the-Law says Francona brought in Andrew Miller in the middle of the game to dispose of the Red Sox for two and a half innings. He knew Farrell wouldn't pinch hit for his lefties that early in the game and they didn't and lost their opportunities to score.

Of course Tito didn't have much choice since all of his starters were hurt in the last month. But he was definitely on to something. Desperation breeds Innovation.

I thought the Sox might rally behind Papi when he put a great swing on Miller's slider in the third game but the ball hung up and was caught for a sac fly instead of getting down for a single. Game of inches, folks.

1 for 3 am I. Surprised I am, Yoda. Farewell Papi...see you in the broadcast booth with Pedro.

The Blue Jays, newly inspired after Encarnacion's walk off, stayed hot at the plate and jacked the Rangers all over the field. Too long a lay off for Texas? Probably. Seems to be a consistent theme in the playoffs that teams need a day or two max. After that they forget how to hit. Pitchers like the layoff cause they're used to it anyway. Hitters, not so much. All of us were waiting for a real street fight between these two teams in a grudge match. But the Rangers didn't show up. Especially disappointing were the performances of their two “aces” (intentionally not capitalized to shame them further) Hamels and Darvish. And they lost on a bad relay throw by Odor.
Life is unexpectedly ironic at times. Actually, all the time if you think about it.

Meanwhile I'm 1 for 4 in predictions.

So I had boldly predicted that San Francisco would beat Chicago. I theorized that the Cubs would be over-confident and also would spit the bit under pressure. I said Bumgarner and Cueto would be tough on them and they were. But the Giants needed to win one of those first two games in Chicago. Javier Baez broke up a gem by Cueto with that big homer and the Cubs won 'em both at Wrigley.

Bum-God-ner's turn. Best game of the playoffs. Arrieta comes up with two on and is about 5 seconds late swinging at Bum's fastball...twice. So Bum thinks, “might as well keep my pitch count down with this guy and finish him off.” The next fastball winds up in Never-Never Land...(“I'm flying! Look at me! Way up high! Like a bird...in the sky! I'm not even trying!”)

That was a purple-paisley-jock-shock for sure. Bum gave up another couple of hits before he got his mojo back. To his credit, he shut the Cubs down after that and kept the Gigantics in the game. Then Conor Gillaspie (who can't spell either one of his names apparently) hits a beautiful triple to deep center field off a 104mph Chapman fireball to tie the game. Then Panik wins it in extras with a homer. Shock, awe and the Giant's high water mark for the year. The Cubs should have been looking for their hearts that the Giants had just cut out and left on the field. But these Cubs showed me something...

Cause the next night the Giants got a great game out of Matt Moore and were three runs up in the ninth. Bochy thinks he's safe taking out his starter. Not with the bullpen you got, Bruce! 5 pitchers...walk, hit, hit, hit, hit...truly wretched performance from the Grade F bullpen. Hard to pitch with your hands around your neck, boys.
Cubbies showed some spunk there...they could have given up on that last at bat and dragged ass back to Wrigley. Instead they made history.

Yep. I'm 1 for 5.

The Dodgers and the Nats. Two teams remarkably similar. Both of them have a leftie-heavy lineup and so are vulnerable to left handed pitching. Both of them have young star left-handed hitters to lead them in Harper and Seager. Both of them have strong closers, but are otherwise deficient in the bullpen. Both of them have underachieved in the playoffs in recent years. Both of them feature a Cy Young starter who has coughed up furballs in the playoffs. Both of them have a new manager who is renowned as a “player's” manager. And both of them have suffered major injury problems the last few years.

I picked the Dodgers in a close series because the Dodger's top pitcher, Kershaw, is a leftie and I thought he'd do better against the Nat's lineup than Scherzer, who is a rightie, would do against the Dodger's leftie hitters. (Sounds more complicated than it really is but I wanted to show off how scientific I'm trying to be about these things.)

So Kershaw throws 101 pitches in 5 innings but still holds off the Nats 4-3 and I look like a genius. Scherzer gave up a first inning bomb to Corey Seager and I am a certified Gold-Plated Genius!!

Game 2 the Nats win on Murphy's homer. 5-2. The Dodgers had the lead when Corey Seager hit another first inning homer but had many chances later in the game and couldn't get the hit. The Nats lost their great catcher Ramos to a knee injury late in the year but their backup Lobaton hit a 3-run jack to help win this one.

The Nats treated the Dodgers like red-headed step children in Game 3, an 8-3 blowout. Every pitcher the Dodgers put out there got lit up. Big homers by Rendon and Werth. The Boys in Blue look done.

The game took well over four hours. The seventh inning alone took over an hour! Something must be done! Here's a shopping list for MLB....

1/CUT BACK THE BETWEEN INNING TIME THAT YOU FILL WITH MORE COMMERCIALS YOU GREEDY BASTARDS! These playoff games always feature so many pitching changes that you'll let the networks make up the difference there anyway. With four hour, even three and a half hour games you start to lose the kids and that's your future audience you stone-brains!

2/Want to intentionally walk somebody? Wave at the umpire. We will all surely miss the sizzling excitement of watching the pitcher try not to throw the ball over his catcher's head on four wide ones.

3/Limit everybody's trips to the mound...coaches, managers, catchers. Every trip counts...Only the starting pitcher in each inning can get two before he must be lifted. Every other pitcher comes out on the next visit from anybody. If there's a runner on second you can figure out a way to go to your alternate set of signs without going out to talk about it. Most catcher's trips are to kill time while the next reliever warms up anyway.

4/5 warmup pitches between innings...not 8. It was enough for Grover Cleveland Alexander.

5/Speed up Replays. Hey! New York umps on the game feed! We just saw the replay eight times and you still can't make the call?

6/ Get creative. It's no use trying to change the game and use less pitchers. That's how they manage these days. A new pitcher for every batter who switches from right to left or vice versa. And they'll whine about hurting their arms.
Enforcing a clock between pitches? Yes! Limiting batter's step outs to adjust their f###ing batting gloves? Yes! Umpires must limit step-outs...even on the big stars like Papi...that loveable bat slappin' time WASTER.

There. I just saved you bums twenty-thirty minutes a game.

So in Game 4 the Dodgers finally get to the Nats' bullpen and Chase Utley does something with runners on base besides strike out.

Game 5. All you will remember is the Kershaw relief job after he won the fourth game on short rest, giving up 5 earned. The Big Guy came through for LA. The Nats played honorably but find a way to lose another one.

So now it's the Championship Series of the Leagues. You probably didn't pick Cleveland to get this far and you probably didn't pick them over Toronto.

Toronto had the hitting mo after rattlesnaking the Rangers, but Cleveland didn't play fair. Instead of leaving their weak second string starters in so the Jays could pound them, Tito Francona just brought in a new no-name relief pitcher every other inning and made the Canadians look silly. Francona even started some kid from Texas named Ryan Merritt who was pitching his second major league game. This baby boy may be the new Bird Fydrich. He was squinting to see the catcher's signs and kind of smiling and then calmly,politely and kind of endearingly shutting out the big boys for 4 key innings. He's from my Mama's home town of McKinney,Texas and I love the kid!

This series was essentially a walkover. Toronto got shut out at home in their last game of the year! So now they lose Bautista and Encarnacion to free agency...and don't try to tell me they can resign them. As I've said before, NOBODY stays in Canada and pays higher taxes when they get to their walk year. The Jays still have a good core...they'll be back.

In the NLCS the Dodgers are the roadblock between the loveable Cubbies and baseball redemption. After 5 games of this series, it is apparent that the Cubs can hit anybody on the Dodger's staff not named Kershaw, Hill or Jansen.
So Roberts has saved those guys back and is going to try to win two games in Chicago with those three main arms. He better not put Blanton or Baez or Stripling out there anymore. Those guys helped get Addison Russell and Rizzo off the schneid.

The Cubbies feel better about themselves after two blowout wins at the Stadium...but they weren't facing Kershaw. I see the Dodgers squelching the Cubs in Game 6. Somebody will light up Hendricks with a long ball...I predict Utley or Gonzalez. Kershaw will only need a run or two.

If there's a seventh game at Wrigley, better check the dugouts for albino squirrels or other unlucky creatures that might crawl out on the field and die at home plate or something. There will be a moment when the Cubs will feel the Chill Wind of the Curse feathering up their necks. Then they will either succomb, as so many Cubs teams have before them, or some new baseball legend will arise. Arrieta vs. Hill...a game Dodger squad vs. the New Darlings of MLB.

I don't know who is going to win but I am definitely looking forward to it.

I guess I'll drink a cup of coffee and ask the wife if I can stay up that late....

Enjoy the weekend!