Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie 2016: ACES AND RACES

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016

“RACES AND ACES”

What happened to all the Pitching Aces of the American League? We've been used to ten or eleven real stoppers per league in recent years, but half way through 2016 the AL is strangely bereft of True Number One Starters.

In the AL East the reason is, perhaps, that Boston, Baltimore and Toronto all have great hitting clubs and are bashing around the respective pitching staffs. Add in Detroit and Texas and that might be a reason why raw pitching numbers are high in the AL.

Toronto was counting on Stroman to be their Ace, but he has been coughing up way too many runs. Yeah, I know he's little and cute and game and all that but they hit him like a red-headed step child. He ranks 92 in baseball (the pitchers are ranked by ERA only) with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. Instead, Marco Estrada (2.70/0.97) has been their best, but he has a Strikeout to Walk ration (87/33) much lower than the classical definition of an ACE. Most true Aces strikeout at least three times as many as they walk. Along with Sanchez and Happ, the Jays have 3 guys in the top 40 of baseball, which is better than anybody else in the East.

Boston thought they had their Ace when they got David Price, but at 4.68 and 1.22 he lags far behind the field. His K to BB ratio is great at 110/24 but he's given up a lot of extra base hits in the clutch. Stephen Wright has been their best starter at 2.18/1.14. Porcello has been OK but still only makes the list at number 52 in baseball. He does have a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio.

The best Baltimore can do is Chris Tillman at number 37.

New York has Tanaka at number 20 (3.01/1.03) which qualifies him as an Ace. Way down the list are Eovaldi with a 4.95 ERA and Pineda with 5.51. With their weak offense, it's no wonder the Yanks haven't made much noise yet. However, the Yankee's true strength has been in the bullpen where Betances, Miller and Chapman give them 3 closers in a row. When NY is ahead in the game after 6 they have been almost unbeatable. That's why I think NY is still in it... if they can get some offensive help for Carlos Beltran.

Tampa Bay was supposed to have great pitching, but Odorizzi is their best and he only ranks 53. Archer is occasionally brilliant but his ERA/WHIP is 4.70/1.43! Offensively, yesterday the Rays' batting order featured 5 players with batting averages under .210. that explains how they can be 4^th in the majors in homers with 102 and still be 27^th in runs scored with 290! Enjoy last place Tampa Bay!

Cleveland leads the AL Central with 4 starters in the top 42: Tomlin, Salazar, Bauer and Kluber. None of them has an outstanding ERA, but Tomlin's K/BB is 55/7 and Kluber's is 103/22. That's impressive. Look for Cleveland to stay near first place despite their rather modest offense. Kluber was a definite Ace last year but he has fallen back. The others haven't fully established Ace credentials but are still formidable.

Kansas City has lousy starting pitching this year. With all their injuries added in, it's a wonder they've managed to stay in second place. They certainly don't have anybody remotely resembling an Ace.

Detroit has Zimmerman and Verlander...neither in the top 40 of baseball and both with ERAs of 3.81. That doesn't qualify you as an Ace. It does qualify you for fourth place in the division.

The Chicago Pale Hose have a true Ace in Chris Sale: 5 to 1 K/BB, 2.80 ERA 0.99 WHIP. He's been lights out all year. But the Sox don't have enough anywhere else to be a strong contender, despite their early success this season.

Let's not even talk about Minnesota.

Texas is dominating the AL West with a balanced team. Cole Hamels qualifies as an Ace, but barely. He has an ERA of 2.79 but a WHIP of only 1.22. His K/BB ratio is under 3 to 1. A good pitcher for sure, but not a dominator like Sale and a full dozen NL pitchers.

Houston has climbed back into second place after a terrible start, but last year's Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel, is ranked as the 96^th pitcher in baseball at 5.35/1.43. Doug Fister at 3.23/1.20 has been their only decent starter. Their bullpen also sucks, so don't expect the Astros to do much this season.

Seattle used to count on Felix Hernandez year in and year out to be a Bright Shining Ace in their rotation. Alas, the King. He's only started 10 games this year with a WHIP of 1.22. His ERA is still good, but he only strikes out 2 for every batter he walks now, after 7 consecutive years of over 3 to 1. His fastball has lost a lot. Well, he lasted a lot longer than most power pitchers and he can still help a team. It's just a shame that Seattle could never put a team together behind him that might get him into the Playoffs.

Taijuan Walker looked good early but has faded. Nobody else is close to the top tier, pitching-wise.

Oakland's Sonny Gray was just entering Ace-hood after last year, but an injury postponed that graduation.

Los Angeles has no Ace now that Garrett Richards is hurt.

So the AL has only 6 of the top 21 starters in baseball and only 3...Tanaka, Hamels and Sales...who have truly established themselves as Aces.

Of course, some of the numbers are skewed because of the DH in the AL. Al pitchers are going to generally have higher ERAs and lower strikeouts than NL pitchers. Still, it's hard not to conclude that in a pitching era, the AL doesn't have starters who scare you like Kershaw, Arrieta, Bumgarner, Scherzer, Strasburg and Syndergaard. I think maybe only Chris Sale could break into that list.

Right now, the NL has several all-time pitchers.

Kershaw is the best, with an ERA/WHIP of 1.57/0.67! His K/BB is a Greg Maddox, Pedro Martinez-ish 141/7!!! To get his ERA any lower, he'd have to throw about 10 shutouts in the second half. (It's been done...look at Grover Cleveland Alexander in 1916. 33 wins and 16 of them were shutouts! Actually old Pete had seven years in a row of that kind of success. He led the league almost every year in wins, innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts. Then he went off to World War One and got gassed and shell-shocked in the trenches which brought on epileptic seizures that he had for the rest of his life. Alex never was right after that and drank too much but still won over 20 games three more times and won another triple crown in 1920. He was the hero of the 1926 World Series when, in the seventh game, he came out of the Cardinal bullpen after winning the previous day and beat the Ruth-led Yankees. Everybody thought he was hung over, but he was actually having trouble with his seizures. He struck out Tony Lazzeri with the bases loaded in one of the most dramatic moments in World Series history. Lest we forget!)

Jake Arietta is right there behind Kershaw at 1.74/0.98 107/35.

Bumgarner 1.99/1.02 122/29.

Syndergaard 2.08/0.99 110/12.

Jose Fernandez 2.31/1.00 136/29.

Even Julio Teheran, laboring in relative anonymity down in hapless Atlanta, has a line of 2.46/0.89

99/24. That's pretty good, and probably why the Red Sox are offering up some of their top prospects to Atlanta in trade talks for Julio.

In NL news I guess the big story is still Chicago in first place in the Central. However, I discern a little complacency on the part of the Cubbies. Everybody has been saying how great they are and I think they might believe it. They've been having a lull while St. Louis is winning. Bryant just hit 3 homers and 2 doubles against the Reds which makes the Cubs fans even more relaxed. Price goeth before the Fall!

Let's remember something...these are the Cubs! Any damn thing can happen to knock these poor jokers out of a pennant. (But not if that pitching staff keeps producing. I expected Arietta and Lester (also pitching like an Ace) to do well. Lackey has been strong too. But Hammels? Where did he come from?)

If the Cubs trade for bullpen help I think they can hold off the Ghost Demons of the Past...goats and black cats and Bartmans and grounders through the legs of Leon Durham...Oh hell...I gotta stop...I'm getting feverish....

My pre-season pick...the Pirates...have been flat all year. I even successfully predicted that this would be the breakout year for their young outfielders Marte and Polanco (they both should make the All Star squad). Hasn't made a difference. They can't beat good teams. They've lost almost every game to Chicago and St. Louis. McCutcheon has slumped all year. Garrett Cole has been hurt and the rest of the staff can't match up with all those good starters the Cubs and Cards have. The everyday players seem resigned to losing right now...they have no faith in their starters. Closer Melancon has been really, really good....but the Pirates are still below .500. So are they just going to go gently into that Good Night? Give everybody up to Free Agency and rebuild yet again? Pittsburgh deserves better.

Meanwhile..the Cardinals lurk.

Over in the NL East Washington and New York are figuring out how to tank enough games to let the Miami Marlins catch up with them. Yelitch and Ozuna (.873 and .948 OPS respectively) the Marlins young outfielders, have excelled. The team is surging even without druggie Dee Gordon and with Stanton not hitting. (Giancarlo is pulling off pitches...stepping into the bucket as they say. I guess you'd bail out too if you kept remembering a 95mph fastball sailing up into your face. I hope he banishes the demons.)

Let's postpone the coronation of Bryce Harper. He's hitting .259 with no power the last month and a half. Pitchers stopped throwing fastballs to him. (Wouldn't you?) and he can't seem to adjust. He's got the top average hitter in baseball (Daniel Murphy) batting behind him so can't blame that. They walked him for awhile and it messed with his head.

The Mets? I keep waiting for the next elbow to pop. I hope it doesn't happen...I'm not a sadist. I just think those guys throw too hard with funky deliveries and the manager leaves them in too long. They wanted Syndergaard to come back on regular rest after his elbow got tweaked for the second time this season. They wanted him to pitch against the Nats. Stupid! Give the guy at least one turn off! He's been so great this year. Why risk it? Meanwhile deGrom has been a little off all year. (He's still at 2.67/1.12) Matz (3.29/1.19) has been steady and the Ageless One...Bartolo Colon... continues to be one of the most entertaining and effective players in baseball. (2.86/1.17) Last year's Ace, Brian Harvey (aka “The Dark Knight”...bet he cringes when he hears that nickname now) has noodle-brained himself to a mark of 4.64/1.38.

So...the Mets still have an outstanding staff, all things considered. Familia has been lights out in the bullpen. So why do they seem so...ordinary? Where's the spark? They need a Bud Harrelson type to get them fired up.

Out West the Giants have gone on a tear. The Dodgers kind of amble along just behind...winning enough to make you crazy. Why don't they go out and get some help for Kershaw besides Kazmir and Maeda? They need more bullpen! Everybody can see it! They don't seem to care if they win anything. They want to preserve their young future stars. Sure, I get it. Good idea to preserve your future...but not when you have the best pitcher in baseball right now in the present. Plus productive hitters like Gonzalez and comers like Seager. You can win now! Kershaw can't pitch like this forever. Hardly anybody has even 5 great years in a row. Kersh is on number 6.

Are we seeing another King Felix scenario in Dodgertown?

It's been since 1988 Los Angeles!

Has anybody noticed that the Diamondbacks are getting better? Goldy is hitting now. This guy Lamb has added some power to the lineup and Greinke is Greinke again. If only ol' Shelby Miller hadn't robbed them blind on that disastrous trade with Atlanta! Talk about coughing up furballs!

What? The Rockies still haven't traded Cargo?

Hasta La Vista, Baby!

*SPECIAL SOCCER SALUTE: Iceland beats England 2-1...my Icelandic wife goes batshit! If only I could get her to watch even ONE baseball game!

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Donnybrooks

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: DONNYBROOKS

Nothing seems to perk up the fans like a good donnybrook early in the season. It makes you look forward to the next series between the two clubs. OOOOOO! I wonder if he's gonna hit him again?

Such is the hullabaloo over Roooog-ned “Rugged Odor” Odor punching Jose Bautista in the jaw.

First of all, what a good guy to punch! Joey Bats has been strutting his stuff and flipping his bat and celebrating the wonderful manliness of himself like some baseball diamond version of Donald Trump. About time he got his, right? I could watch it over and over. And I love it when all the bullpen guys come running into the infield. They could just stay out there in the bullpens and punch each other out, but no, they have to come into the scrum and then get in some trouble.

And how about the time Jason Varitek, the catcher of the Red Sox...stuck his glove in Yankee ARod's face after Alex mouthed off at his pitcher. That started a war between the Sox and Yanks that led to Pedro Martinez bat-flipping Don Zimmer to the turf and hitting a few Yankees in the butt with one of his well placed fastballs. Which in turn led to Pedro getting chopped into mincemeat by the “Whose Yore Daaddy” chants when the Sox got creamed in the seventh game of the 2003 playoffs. Which of course led to the great Sox comeback of 2004 when they came from 3 down to sweep the hated Yanks on their way to their first world title in seventy five odd years. And it all started with that donnybrook.

Or remember when Nolan Ryan hit Robin Ventura of the White Sox in a game in Arlington and Jason charged the mound? And Nolan steer rassled him and gave him a few noggin noogies? I could watch that all day.

Heck, Odor is a big hero now...even though he got 8 games. How could they even suspend a guy for such a good punch?

But then I remember another famous donnybrook...in a different sport. Basketball. 1977. Kermit Washington of the Lakers got in a fight and Rudy Tomjanovich of the Rockets charged onto the floor. Kermit saw him coming up on him out of the corner of his eye and just turned and reacted with a straight right.

That punch broke nearly every bone in Rudy's face and could have easily killed him. It effectively ended his career. Kermit got the longest suspension for fighting ever meted out...he never got over the stigma.

So that's why I feel a little guilty celebrating the donnybrooks. What if somebody like Giancarlo Stanton or Evan Gattis decided to land a haymaker on someone. You could have a baseball death. That's some serious shit.

So let's keep it to steer rasslin' guys. Just grab somebody and waltz around for while until Don Baylor comes out of the dugout and everybody quits fighting.

Some notes on the season:

• There is only one team in the NL West with a winning record at home...San Francisco and just barely. There is only one team in the AL West with a winning record at home...the Texas Rangers. That's a lot of home team futility and a sign of weak divisions.
• The Mets just lost their left handed bat and first baseman Lucas “Camptown Races” Doodah. With Granderson hitting below the Mendoza line they will need a leftie hitter. They also need help at catcher and their starting pitching has been shaky when Thor or Matz ain't in there. Dark Knight Harvey is really screwed up. Why don't they sit him for one start? I think the manager is blowing it.
• The Nationals should pull away but they aren't letting Harper beat them and he'll get frustrated. He should start stealing a lot of bases to make them pay for walking him. Nobody else in the lineup scares anybody.
• My prediction that Frazier of the White Sox and Justin Upton of the Tigers having trouble adjusting to the AL after being National League guys their whole career is only half panning out. Frazier had a hot streak for two weeks and is now batting .238 but he leads the AL in homers with 14. Upton is south of the Mendoza and is striking out 37% of the time!
• NL Central. Watch Pittsburgh warm up as the weather does. Chicago is cooling off 'cause everybody is getting up when they play the precious little Adorable Annointed Ones. But they still have Arrieta and the best pitching. Go ahead and punch their ticket for the playoffs. But they better keep an eye out for the Pirates and Cards.
• Votto of the Reds is in a slump of slumps. I think he's trying to carry the team and they aren't giving him good enough pitches for him to do that. He's striking out a lot. Batting .205. He'll turn it around.
• In the AL East the Blue Jays pitching is being exposed. Baltimore is also pitching shaky behind Tillman. The Yanks aren't hitting near enough. But they are showing signs of life after getting their bullpen in order with the return of Chapman. The Rays are leading in homers (!!) Boston is looking awfully good offensively with the “B” boys...Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley and “Big” Papi.
  Their starting pitching is still a question...Bucholz is a complete head case. Oh well, he's due to get hurt any minute now anyway. They need a healthy and effective Rodriquez back and Kelly to actually be consistent. Porcello, Price and Wright have been fairly steady as of late.
• AL Central Detroit is hurting for starting pitching after Zimmerman and Verlander, even with great hitting. With Minnesota having an awful year Chicago is sneaking in...but they aren't for real. They only have two good starters...then nothing at 3, 4, 5. Cleveland is soft offensively. That means the Royals will eventually take command. At least that's my prediction and I'm sticking with it.
• San Francisco is similar to the White Sox over in the NL West. Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija are doing great. Cain and Peavy are Big Ls. If the Giants can bring some young arms up to fill those two starting slots they can take it because...instead of grabbing the ring, the Dodgers are losing games to the San Diego Padre-cakes. When are they going to bring up all that alleged talent from the minors? If not now, when? Come on Dodgeheads...it's time to win something.
• My Major League All Stars for the first third of the season: (NL then AL)
• 1B: Rizzo Hosmer
• 2B: Zobrist Altuve
• 3B: Arrenado Machado
• SS: Cozart Bogaerts
• C: Molina Sal Perez
• AL OF: Trout, Bradley, Cain
• NL OF: Cespedes, Marte, Fowler
• Dh: guess who! BIG PAPI!!!!

Later on Dudes....

Marco's Baseball Blog-o-roonie: 2016 SPRING FLASH

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 SPRING FLASH

Christy Mathewson once won a complete game on 65 pitches.

In 1919 the Giants beat the Phillies in a nine inning game 6-1. The game was completed in 51 minutes.

As recently as 1977, the famous Reggie Jackson 3 homer game in the sixth game of the World Series against the Dodgers was completed in a tidy 2:18.

In modern baseball the games drag on and on. Four hour games are commonplace. What happened?

The answer is pretty easy. Home runs happened.

In the dead ball era that didn't end until 1920, most games were played with one baseball that turned into a soggy, tobacco-stained turnip by the ninth inning. Bringing in a new baseball at any point was considered wasteful and profligate. Hardly anybody could hit the dead ball over any of the distant fences (or no fences) then prevalent in ballparks.

In these conditions, pitchers didn't have to worry about most hitters hitting one out. They challenged most hitters with hard stuff in the strike zone, saving their trickier corner pitches for the occasional dangerous hitter like Home Run Baker (led the league 4 years in a row with 9,10,12 and 8 homers!). Hitters swung at good pitches early in the count. Pitchers didn't tax their arms as much and pitched complete games.

Add to that day games that working people attended by playing hookie from day jobs for a couple of hours of baseball bliss before they went back to the hog butchery. Who had time for a four hour game?

In the modern game, every hitter in the lineup is facing a brand new shiny baseball. One pitch in the dirt and the ball is thrown away as too unclean for anybody to possibly use.

Baseball players have been chosen for power potential to take advantage of the homer so batters get bigger and stronger. The pitching staffs had to counter by seeking out ever more powerful arms to blow balls by these behemoths.

So every hitter in the lineup is a potential home run threat. The pitchers have to use their best stuff on every hitter, rarely challenging anybody in the heart of the plate. Counts go deeper, pitchers tire quicker. Therefore every team uses five or six pitchers a game. Takes time to change pitchers every time a left handed hitter comes up. Pitching staffs are now made up of 12 or 13 hurlers.

Add a dash of long commercial breaks between innings and frequent trips to the mound ..first the catcher, then the catcher again, then the pitching coach, then the manager...all just to give the bullpen time to warm up another relief pitcher. Then have the batter step out after every called strike...4 hour games.

Somebody should do something.

SPRING FLASH: Oh my god, they've played 30 games already! What are the trends?

Everybody is sure the Cubs are the next super team. Maybe. They have that stopper in Arrieta. Lackey and Lester and Hamels are all pitching great. (Some credit here to “back-up” catcher David Ross, who seems to be a real difference maker to his staff.) They've scored 90 more runs than the next best team and Heyward, Soler and Russell aren't even hitting. Shall we give them the trophy and go home?

Nope. The Cubs have played only 8 games against first division competition (St. Louis and Pittsburgh...currently playing Washington) They've played 23 games against the zombie teams (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, San Diego, Colorado) and a struggling L.A. Angels. They've faced a good team...Arizona...that just lost their second best hitter and has two star pitchers out of sorts while they adjust to the dry Phoenix air. That's a lot of weak teams in one month.

They've got a more balanced schedule this month. If they are still steamrolling, I'll buy in.

Washington and New York are 1-2 in the East, as expected. Harper and Murphy seem to be the only Nats really producing. The Mets pitching has sputtered with deGrom having babies and lat strains and “the Dark Knight” Harvey in eclipse. Syndergaard is their best pitcher right now.

I suspect the Mets will get well soon, and Cespedes and Conforto are hitting more as it warms up.

It's nice to see the Phillies playing well. Atlanta is a disgrace...only ...what... 6 homers?...all season? Surely that's not right? Yep!

Dee Gordon (and Colabello of Toronto) win this year's “I never knowingly ingested” awards. Let's stop putting their names in bold.

The NL West is Dodger/Giant territory. The Giants are starting to get hurt and...you read it here a month ago...Cain and Peavey are giving up a run an inning. Those two old warhorses are no longer major league quality pitchers I'm sad to say. Watch some young ones get called up soon. The Giants can't keep sending those two out there to throw batting practice.

The Dodgers new pitcher Maeda is a phenom and Kershaw is in mid-season form. I expect them to gradually pull away.

I already mentioned Arizona's troubles.

Colorado's new shortstop Trevor Story has hit 10 homers! Not as publicized is the fact that he's on pace to strike out 250 times this year! And nobody seems to care! 250 times! That's what's wrong with baseball...inning after inning of strikeouts waiting for one long ball. Boring!

San Diego keeps getting shut out. A zombie team snooze fest.

Over in the Al East the Yanks have gotten off to a very slow start. I think they are next to last in the AL in runs scored and they just lost ARod to a hammy. Their starting staff has the highest ERA in the league! And that's a starting staff with the highest average velocity...94mph... to no effect apparently. They aren't even getting to use their excellent bullpen 'cause they aren't even in the games. The Yanks look like the Sox did last year.

The Red Sox are dueling the homer-happy Orioles for first place. The Sox pitching appears to be stabilizing with the bullpen getting better and Porcello and knuckler Wright giving them good starts, even with Price struggling.

Big news in the Central! The Chisox are in first place! They have good hitting all through the lineup and have Quintana and Latos pitching great to help out Ace Chris Sale.

One caveat White Sox fans (Hi Tom!)...their first 17 games were against Zombie teams. Now they're playing first division clubs for awhile.

Minnesota has been making me look bad by losing over and over. And KC is only a .500 team so far with not enough starting pitching. (I have faith in them however.)

The big surprise is in the AL West where the Houston Astros have fallen into the muck. Of all their hitters with over 20 at bats, nine of them are hitting below .230. They have 9 guys with over 20 strike outs already. Rasmus and Jose Altuve are carrying them offensively. Altuve has 9 homers! A lead off hitter! That guy is a gamer.

The pitching has been bad bad. Their new reliever Giles couldn't make it as the closer even throwing 96. They stayed with 89 mph Luke Gregerson as the better option. That speaks volumes. Giles hasn't pitched well under stress...he blows up and is wilder than gopher meat. McCullers got hurt and the rest of the starters have underwhelmed to say the least. Keuchel even lost a home game. The Stros can't win at all on the road. Could be a long season for my first place picks.

Last year the Rangers were falling all over themselves at this time of year while the 'Stros were taking off. Now they've traded places. The Rangers have the most intriguing rookie in the league...Nomar Mazara...youngest player in baseball. They brought him up when Choo got hurt and he's hitting .333 and has a rifle arm from right field. Let's see how he does next time around the league, but he may be the real thing. Seems to have his head on straight.

If Darvish comes back healthy....

Seattle is tied for first with Texas and are getting great pitching from Taijuan Walker and Wade Miley.

Oakland is running in place and the poor Angels...as I predicted they may be disintegrating. Pujols still hits the long ball when they make a mistake but his batting average is .198. Starter Weaver has an ERA of over 5 and Shoemaker over 9. No help seems to be coming.

Okay ball fans. Help me keep an eye on this thing and I'll talk at you later.

May 6 2016.

Marco's Baseball blog-O-Roonie: 2016 predictions NL WEST and summary

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS NL WEST

The sudden appearance of Jeremy Hazelbaker...currently batting .483 for the Cardinals...flashed me back to another famous “phenom”...Bob “Hurricane” Hazle who came up to the Milwaukee Braves in July of 1957 and batted .403 in 150+ at bats with a slugging % of .649. He batted .553 in his first dozen games and was a big reason the Braves held back the Cardinals and won the pennant.

For one summer Braves thought they'd died and gone to heaven thinking about Hurricane Bob teaming up with Aaron and Eddie Matthews to give them a triple threat middle of the order. Bob didn't do so well in the series with the Yankees, but he helped the Braves win the 7^th game with two hits. But then...

In 1958 NL pitchers discovered he couldn't hit the curve and he batted .179 with a slugging average also .179 (hard to do!). The Braves traded him to Detroit and he was out of baseball the next year.

Maybe Hazelbaker will last longer. He's starting late, though...28 years old. By the way, he went to that perennial powerhouse baseball college Ball State.

Let's predict the NL West...if I wait any longer my predictions will be much better because the season will be over!

Can I skip the ratings this time? Just remember 2 ½ is average, 5 is among the best of all time and 0 is...well...zero. I haven't rated anybody zero yet but Cincinnati got one star for their pitching rotation until they get Homer Bailey back.

1^st place...Los Angeles:

I've been badmouthing LA for so long that you probably can't believe I'm picking them this year ...of all years...when they lost Greinke and the Giants and Diamondhumps are so much better. Well I am a perverse SOB when it comes to my predictions and I might be way off but I got a feeling...and the feeling is named Dave Roberts.

New Manager Dave Roberts of the Dodgers is one of those guys that everybody likes to be around. He's been a loved and valued bench player for most of his career. Now he's a manager and he's just the right fit for the Dodgers.

The Bluebloods have had a lot of stars, but also a lot of confusion and pressure for years. They have been expected to win because they are the most expensive team money can buy and they have the best pitcher in Kershaw. They also have a lot of older players who are fighting to stay in the lineup against some up and coming youngsters. I think they've been playing tight for three years.

Roberts is not a hardcore guy like Mattingly. He's loose and funny and friendly and kind of like laughing gas for a bunch of uptight millionaires like the Dodgers. I think they'll respond. I think it's also a blessing that most pundits are not picking them to win the West. Stuff like that motivates a defending champ.

The other reason I'm picking the Dodgers is that I think the Giants aren't going to be as good as people think...specifically their pitching. Their closer, Romo, already went down with arm trouble (too-many-slider-itis) Peavey and Cain are 5 innings 5 runs given up types now. That will overtax the bullpen. Samardzija is still a project...with all that great stuff he still has always underachieved. Jumpin' Johnny Cueto is now Jekyll and Hyde. On any given day he might be great and the next time out he loses it totally.

And Bumgarner...I hate to say this cause I love the guy...but he looks like his arm is feeling the innings he's put on it the last few years.

Let's face it, the Giants have abused his arm. They've left him in games too long because he's such a gamer and they trust his heart. I like his heart too, but I watched him give up 7 runs to the Dodgers the other night and his cross-body pitches to right handed hitters didn't have that snap and late breaking movement they used to. He hung 3 belt high sliders to that Enrique Hernandez kid, who got two homers and a double easily.

Anyway, the Giants have had two tremendous, full Ace pitchers in the last few years...Lincecum and Cain...suddenly go south and not recover. Is Bumgarner going to suddenly lose it too? I sure hope not...he's my favorite pitcher since Pedro.

Back to the Dodgers:

Lineup: 3½*...If Puig comes back from voodooville the middle of the order is strong with Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager and Justin Turner. Howie Kendrick is back at second. All their outfielders are hurt or head cases so that can hurt them.

The big mystery is Joc Pederson. He batted .178 the second half with only 6 homers. In the first half he hit some of the longest homers in baseball, and I think he fell in love with himself. (He also got on base with walks.)

Then he made the All Star home run derby and he screwed up his swing uppercutting and trying to pull...he spent the rest of the season platooning and changing his batting stance over and over.

Now he's good and bewildered. He looks like he just can't believe that the pitchers are not going to throw that fat down and in pitch to him so he can hit it to Ventura. The other night I watched him try to pull a weak slider off the outside corner and down. He had a tremendous uppercut and missed by a foot....and posed! He stood there as if saying to the fans...wouldn't that have been beautiful if I'd hit it? Then he struck out when they jammed him in and he half committed to a swing and got rung up. He looked clueless.

Joc should study tapes of Hosmer from KC. That guy takes the outside pitch the other way and doesn't try to hit everything into the seats. He helps his team that way. Peterson should really study Hosmer's hands...they have a World Series ring on them, Joc!

Defense: 4*...the infield is much better with Kendrick back. Puig and Peterson can both go get it.

Rotation: 4*...I like the kid Maeda. He's going to be pretty good for them I think. Along with Ryu and Kazmir...they are much better than the Giants or Diamondbacks 1 through 5 in my opinion.

Bullpen: 2½*...they really haven't gone out and gotten anybody to really help this bunch and it may cost them. After they lost Aroldis Chapman, they seemed to lose focus on this weak spot. Maybe they think some of their young pitching star prospects can come up later in the season and upgrade the pen. Right now it's not much until you get to Jansen.

Leadership: 4*...I think Dave Roberts is worth a full star to them, at least. Even though the front office has made some unfathomable trades, they are obviously committed to building the team with their own prospects. That means they're looking at creating a long term dynasty instead of going all out to win now. But if the Dodgers are close late, surely they'll get some help? We'll see.

TOTAL: EIGHTEEN STARS...FIRST PLACE

Tied for 1st place...San Francisco:

Lineup: 3*...they'd be higher if they didn't have such a terrible injury history. Every year they lose key players to serious injury and have to muddle through. They have to keep Posey and Pence healthy or the middle of the order is pathetic. Why can't they find a hitting left fielder?

Defense: 3*...again, the starters are pretty good, but the Giants have to play so many fill-ins when the regs go down that you can't give them a tremendously high score.

Rotation: 3½*...and that's giving them the benefit of the doubt. People are rating them on name only...these pitchers are not what they were and every one of them except Bumgarner and Samardzija has had serious arm troubles in the recent past. See above.

Bullpen: 3½*...the man they trust the most...Romo...might be done for the year. Bochy is a genius at mixing and matching in the pen, but even he has to have raw materials. Also, like I said before...Peavy and Cain aren't good for a lot of innings. The pen is always overworked anyway and this year might be the breaking point.

Leadership: 5*...no doubt about it. This is a helluva focused bunch of winners. It starts with Bochy and with a front office that is savvy and doesn't meddle. They will get help when it's needed. Posey, Pence, Panik, Pagan and Brandon Crawford...gamers all. They are a lot like Kansas City.

TOTAL: EIGHTEEN STARS...TIED FOR FIRST PLACE

3^rd place...Arizona:

Lineup: 3*...oh what a cruel blow! The Humps had one of the most productive offenses last year and that's why they went out and got those two big arm starting pitchers (Greinke and Miller)

Then A.J.Pollock broke his elbow. He might get back this year or he might not...but he was the other big gun they needed in the order to make teams pitch to Goldschmidt. (They aren't going to be afraid of Yasmany Tomas or Socrates Brito!) They lose a full star.

Defense: 2½*...the loss of center fielder Pollock hurts them here too. Tomas is a black hole in right.

Rotation: 3½*...Greinke and Miller should be good but they must adjust to a hitter's park and big expectations. But how many stars do you think Rubby de la Rosa and Robby Ray are worth? Patrick Corbin might be a good number three. If he is it's worth a half star. But remember...he just had Tommy John. It's a shame that Archie Bradley got hurt...that guy could pitch.

Bullpen: 2*...it has become apparent in this new age of baseball with the plague of multiple Tommy John surgeries and pitch counts for high-priced star pitchers that a good bullpen is essential for any team pretending to be a contender. Arizona does not have a good bullpen. Therefore I don't believe they can win.

Leadership: 3½*...you develop good leadership by experiencing winning. The Humps haven't learned how to really win yet. Maybe Greinke can teach them how. And Goldschmidt is one of the most admirable superstars in the game today.

Tony La Russa is an interesting judge of baseball talent. But he got used to working with a great organization in St. Louis. The Cardinals expected to be good every year. These Diamondbacks were forced to go for it in the next two years because after that they start losing their stars to free agency. They must win now and that forced them to give up three great players for Shelby Miller and a ton of money for Greinke.

After losing Pollock I think they are out of luck. BAD JUJU.

TOTAL: FOURTEEN AND ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE

4^th place...Colorado:

Lineup: 4*...I'm probably being generous. But they have Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon (45 steals). The new kid Drew Storey is making them forget Tulo (at least in April!) If Jose Reyes can play ball instead of beating on his woman that offense could be scary.

Defense: 3½*...whoopie! Another thing the Rockheads are kinda good at!

Rotation: 1½*...Yikes! You knew it was coming but I didn't realize how pitiful their rotation was until I really looked. The pitching staff as a whole was bottom 5 in ERA, Wins, Saves and Opponent's Batting Average last year. Same old story at Coors Stadium.

Bullpen: 1½*...more of the same. World Class Bad.

Leadership: 1½*...they have tried everything from banning any use of the curveball for all of their minor league pitchers to taking out any pitcher after 80 pitches no matter what the circumstance. Nothing works. They need a pitching coach who can train a bunch of sinker ball pitchers to induce groundballs..or something!

So the front office has to get a failing score. They also insulted Tulo by not telling him he had been traded until he heard it on Twitter or something. He had specifically asked them to tell him first. Why treat your all time best player like that? Unless you're a total dufus. BAD JUJU!

Their good players Arenado and some of the other guys mentioned above are the only reason they have any stars at all in this category. Denver is a nice town...they deserve better. Bad JUJU!

TOTAL: TWELVE STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5^th place...San Diego:

The most zombie of all the zombie teams. Nobody knows what San Diego is doing. Last year they tried to get fans in the stadium by signing free agents and trading for Kemp, Will Myers, Justin Upton and James Shields. They knew they couldn't keep all of those guys for more than a year but they needed to boost attendance. The team collapsed and they started trading guys again...but not all of them...are they trying to split hairs? In this day and age you can't get caught in the middle. You have to go for it or rebuild.

One thing is for sure...this team sucks. What is it with San Diego? It's a big city with a great climate...and they can't keep their ball teams. The Chargers are trying to move to L.A. And the Padres might as well move too.

Lineup: 2*...they finished bottom five in most offensive categories last year and losing Upton hasn't made them any better. Worst batting average in majors at .243.

Defense: 2*...they think they don't need a shortstop. Believe me, they need a shortstop. Kemp isn't a good outfielder anymore. Myers isn't good at first base.

Rotation: 2*...they will probably start selling off their veteran pitchers and loading up on recruits...at least they will if they're smart. They can get something for Shields and Tyler Ross especially.

Bullpen: 1*...they traded Kimbrel to the Bosox for good prospects. I guess they realize that you don't need a closer when you're always behind.

Leadership: 1*...when you play for San Diego these days...you know you've hit bottom.

TOTAL: 8 STARS...FIFTH PLACE

And now....in summary...here are my predictions all in one spot so you can hold them against me more easily at the end of the season.

AL EAST: Toronto should win by 6 or 7 games with the other teams bunched up behind pretty evenly.

TORONTO...19 *

NEW YORK...18*

BOSTON...16½*

BALTIMORE...15½*

TAMPA...13½*

AL CENTRAL: a runaway for KC...still the best team in baseball.

KANSAS CITY...21*

CLEVELAND...16½*

MINNESOTA...16½*

DETROIT...15½*

CHICAGO...10½*

AL WEST: Houston and Texas battle it out. Almost too close to call. L.A. Angels collapse to last.

HOUSTON...18½*

TEXAS...17½*

SEATTLE...13½*

OAKLAND...12½*

LOS ANGELES ANGELS...12*

WILD CARDS: TEXAS and NEW YORK ...winner TEXAS

KC BEATS TEXAS, TORONTO BEATS HOUSTON

KC BEATS TORONTO IN 7.

NL EAST: Strictly a two team race but New York should pull away at the end. Who can beat Atlanta and Philly the most times?

NEW YORK...17*

WASHINGTON...14½*

MIAMI...13½*

PHILADELPHIA...11½*

ATLANTA...9*

NL CENTRAL: 3 way race with very little space between. Will be decided by injuries and how each team does against the weak sisters Milwaukee and Cincinnati.

PITTSBURGH...20*

CHICAGO...18*

ST. LOUIS...17½*

CINCINNATI...11½*

MILWAUKEE...10*

NL WEST: I predict San Francisco and Los Angeles will tie and have to play a one game playoff to decide the division winner. The loser may not be the wild card because of the strong Central. Should be an epic game!

LOS ANGELES DODGERS...18*

SAN FRANCISCO...18*

ARIZONA...14½*

COLORADO...12*

SAN DIEGO...8*

WILD CARDS: CHICAGO and ST. LOUIS ...winner CHICAGO

DODGERS BEAT GIANTS IN ONE GAME PLAYOFF FOR WEST TITLE.

CHICAGO BEATS NEW YORK

PITTSBURGH BEATS LOS ANGELES

PITTSBURGH BEATS CHICAGO IN 6

WORLD SERIES:

KANSAS CITY BEATS PITTSBURGH IN 6 GAMES.

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Predictions NL Central

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS NL CENTRAL

Just pretend for a moment that it's the last day of the season and the NL Central standings have St. Louis and Chicago tied for first place with one game to go. The Pirates are a couple back but are guaranteed the second wild card spot while the Cards and Cubs are assured of either winning the division and getting the by week or at least getting the first wild card.

Let's say in our imaginary universe that the Cards are playing a day game against Cincinnati on the last day of the season while the Cubs are playing the Pirates in a night game. The Cubs start John Lackey and are saving Jake Arrieta in case they need him to win the Wild Card play-in game against Pittsburgh or the tie breaker with St. Louis.

Let's say the Cards win that day game before the Pirates-Cubs game starts. So now if the Cubs win this game they will tie with the Cards and have to play a tie-breaker with them to decide who wins the division.

The Pirates are getting the second wild card anyway so they have nothing to lose if they dump this game with the Cubs and force them to pitch Arrieta to win the tie-breaker against the Cards. Then at least if they play the Cubs they won't have to face Arrieta. And the Cards will have probably used up their best available starter too.

If the Pirates beat the Cubs they are rewarded by having to face Arrieta in a one game takes all scenario. So by any measure, the Pirates are better off losing that game. So in my imaginary and sordidly corrupt universe the Pirates start some rookie from Dirt City, Utah and load up the lineup with prospects while they rest their starters.

The Cubs have something to play for and whack the Buccos 14 to 0 and then have to go play the Cards for first place. Advantage Pirates who get a day of rest and then face a depleted opponent in the Wild Card game.

Preposterous you say? Well someday this is going to happen with the Wild Card rule they now have in effect. Just like the San Antonio Spurs like to tank meaningless games in the NBA to rest their stars, baseball is wide open to a tank job that will benefit the losing club. Except it will decide the playoffs!

I don't know if baseball has ever had a situation where it clearly benefited one team to lose a game. They could have it in my wicked scenario and you will rue the day! Mark my Words!

You're probably tired of seeing it but here, once again, is my ratings system:

5*stars= among the best of all time.

4*stars=really good

3*stars=a little above average

2 ½*stars=average

1*star=stinko

0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.

NL CENTRAL:

1^st place...Pittsburgh:

Egads, you croak! (I hear you croaking at me...don't deny it) Perella has flipped out and is picking against the adorable little predestined-for-greatness Cubbies! And he's not even sticking with the ever-excellent Cardinals! He's wishful-thinking the outmanned Pirates into a title! Well...yep..that's what I'm doing.

It's not wishful thinking 'cause while I'm appreciative of the Pirates I have badmouthed them for years because they can't keep enough stars to ever break through and win something big. I pick the Cards to win every year because they do. And I readily admit that the Cubs are the best team on paper in the National League this year. I think everybody is justified in picking them to win this year. I just don't think they will. Pro and Con:

The Cubs went out and got exactly the right players to help their young team...Heyward and Zobrist are seasoned pros who still have a lot left. Zobrist was on the World Series Champs last year and knows what it feels like. Used to play for Joe Maddon at Tampa. He's versatile and a good clubhouse guy. So is Heyward who is also the best defensive outfielder they could have gotten. (Their outfield needed defensive help if they planned on playing Schwarber and Soler a lot.)

They also got John Lackey to be their number 3 starter. Lackey wound up the Cardinals top pitcher last year. He's also John Lester's best friend. So that's three old pros to help settle down the exciting youth of America team the Cubs have brilliantly developed. All praise to Theo Epstein.

What's even more devious is that in getting Heyward and Lackey, the Cubs robbed their division rivals, the Cards, of two great, hard to replace players. (They overpaid for Heyward, but so what...they have the money and are saving a bundle with all those cheap rookies.) Got to give the Cubs an A for the off season.

However, Schwarber just went down for the season with a knee. (Sad!) That's a big loss, offensively, even though they have depth.

And I think it's a little premature to assume that all these young players will smoothly improve without a hiccup.

This team...especially Bryant and Soler... strikes out way too much. Chicago also finished 29^th in batting, 19^th in total bases and slugging. 29^th in runners left on base. Those are not very impressive stats for a team that's supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. Of course, that's against the whole of major league baseball, AL included, but still...they play in Wrigley Field! You're supposed to run up the score! I think the league may have gotten a good read on how to get these free-swinging youngsters out. The Mets sure did.

The Cubs are not a good defensive club either, although Heyward helps a lot in the outfield...but maybe not as much in center if they move him out of his happy home in right.

Also, the bullpen is inferior to both the Cards and the Pirates...and bullpens are essential in modern baseball.

So I see the Cubs still winning well over 90 games...they still have Rizzo, Addison Russell (an almost unnoticed future star at 22) and Arrieta as a stopper. And they have a very good leader in manager Joe Maddon.

I think the Cubs are a year away.

The Cards are still stacked with great young arms and they get Wainwright back. But they didn't quite get anybody to replace Heyward and Lackey was their only pitcher who didn't get hurt all the time. They seem to lack offense now that Holliday is fading. Piscotti and Grichuk are good looking kids but they aren't Pujols in the middle of the order.

Yadier Molina is still the best defensive catcher in the business but they had to wire his thumb together and how much pounding can that thing take day after day on his glove hand? Sure can't help his hitting any, either.

So, I see the Cardinals as weaker. Don't get me wrong...they'll still be plenty good. And they'll probably go out and get some help. But they are not a sure thing this year.

I just think the Pirates are ripe. They're sick of getting beat in the Wild Card game and they are motivated to win now before all their stars turn into free agents.

Here's how I rate them:

Lineup: 4*...I think Starling Marte is a star about to break out. Polanco too. I like Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison at short and second. Third sacker Kang finished second in Rookie of the Year votes even though he only played in 126 games before he broke his leg. Kid can hit and get on base. He'll be back early in the season. I also like batting McCutcheon second. He'll get more at bats and more good pitches to hit. And he can use his speed to best effect early in the order.

Defense: 2½*...average at best but Cervelli was a huge surprise at catcher. He was great with the pitchers and hit some too. (.295) Every good club starts with an ace at catcher.

Rotation: 4*...I think Gerrit Cole is ready for a dominating year. Because of the Pirates pitching philosophy (have a shutdown bullpen ...get a result in 3 pitches...use cutters to get ground balls), Cole won 19 games in only 208 innings pitched. (Arrieta had over 250 if you count the post season) He might not even be their best pitcher. Liriano won game after big game for the Bucs. They have three lefties in the rotation and youngster Tyler Glasnow averaged 11.8 K's per nine in the minors. (ok...full disclosure...he's very wild on occasion.)

Bullpen: 4½*...best in the league. Balanced and talented. Outside of Melancon they don't have household names but they get it done.

The thing with Pirates pitching is that they have a genius pitching coach named Ray Searage who rehabs all these old cast-off guys like Liriano and A.J.Burnett and squeezes 3 more years of wins out of them. This year his projects are starter Jon Niese and reliever Neftali Feliz (who the Rangers ruined by trying to turn him into a starter) and I bet those guys give a lot of value to the Bucs this year.

Leadership: 5*...they've always had a great team spirit, led by the ebullient 'Cutch and the Grizzled One...manager Clint Hurdle. I already mentioned Searage and the pitching staff worships at his altar. The front office can't afford free agents but they trust the players they get. I mentioned the intangibles of really wanting to win it while this team is together. Most of all: GOOD JUJU!

TOTAL: TWENTY STARS...FIRST PLACE

2^nd place...Chicago:

Lineup: 3½*...cause they strike out so much. They lose another half point for losing Schwarber...that kid can rake.

Defense: 2½*...a couple of black holes in the defense. Heyward and Russell (at short) are standouts.

Rotation: 4½*... they have the top pitcher in baseball or close to it (you can make an argument for Kershaw, Greinke, Bumgarner and maybe Scherzer too). Lester and Lackey are strong at 2 and 3 and Hendricks and Hammel aren't bad.

Bullpen: 3*...kind of weak if you plan on winning it all. Warren was a good pickup from the Yankees for Castro. Rondon is the closer and he doesn't excite. But this team finished fourth in bullpen ERA last year so they aren't terrible.

Leadership: 4½*...still young but Rizzo is a leader. So is Zobrist and Maddon keeps them loose. And how much confidence does a guy like Arrieta give them when he's out there? One of the top front offices in the game. Also GOOD JUJU.

TOTAL: EIGHTEEN STARS...SECOND PLACE

3^rd place...St. Louis:

Lineup: 3*...several good hitters in the lineup, but they are all about number six types...nothing formidable in the middle of the order. No Vuottos, McCutcheons or Rizzos.

Defense: 3½*...the Cards are always pretty good in the field, but they aren't exceptional except for Molina. He's worth about a whole star by himself.

Rotation: 3½*...Lance Lynn was their number 2. He went down the Tommy John Trail. They traded Shelby Miller to Atlanta in the Heyward deal (Miller subsequently went to Arizona for three great prospects) and Miller was a good young pitcher. Then they lost Lackey. Now they're short. They have to depend on the oft injured and aging Wainwright to be their Number 1. He's not anymore.

Wacha is a power arm who gets hurt regularly. Carlos Martinez is still trying to live up to the “Little Pedro” sobriquet. Jaime Garcia and Tyler Lyons fill out the rotation. Wacha, Martinez and Garcia have all had shoulder issues.

Yadier makes this rotation a whole ERA run better...but none of these guys is a safe bet to make it through the season in one piece. I predict at least three of them will go down and the Cards will be filling holes all year. The Cards now have a tradition of losing pitchers to arm troubles. Somebody needs to change something.

BAD JUJU!

Bullpen: 3½*...Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness, Broxton...the Cards should be ok in this department.

Leadership: 4*...The Cardinals expect to be good. They have one of the very best orgs in baseball and they live up to it most years. But this year I see adversity stalking them. The Cubs beat them badly in the off season and the Pirates are still hanging around. They don't have an offensive superstar...just some solid blue collar hitters. Their pitching is down from recent seasons.

They still might sneak in to the playoffs just on Molina and moxie, but look for them to go get help for that to transpire.

TOTAL: SEVENTEEN and ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE

4^th place...Cincinnati:

Lineup: 2*...they still have Vuotto and Brandon Phillips is defying time. Jay Bruce hit 26 dingers on a .226 average. Billy Hamilton batted .226 as well but stole 57 bases. They traded Todd Frazier. They don't score much. Vuotto only got 80 ribbies on a .314 average with 29 homers batting third. The Reds finished 26th in runs scored playing in a hitter's park.

Don't worry about the Reds...they're not trying to hurt you!

Defense: 2½*...just average almost everywhere and catcher Devin Mesoraco and shortstop Zach Cozart are coming off serious injuries.

Rotation: 1*...what did you expect when you traded Cueto and Leake and lost Homer Bailey to surgery? Do you really think those rookie pitchers are going to light up the league? If Homer comes back mid season they might get another half star out of this group.

Bullpen: 2*...hope you got something good for Aroldis Chapman. (They really didn't)

Leadership: 4*...no matter how suckie this team gets...they always have a competitive spirit. They are the Reds, by God and they will try to beat you. Vuotto, Phillips and Bruce came to play and play they will. If manager Bryan Price can get his pitching staff on the right track he may last til the All Star break. The Reds mistimed their rebuild but they'll be back.

TOTAL: ELEVEN AND ONE HALF STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5^th place...Milwaukee:

Another rebuild underway. It should be depressing in Wisconsin for awhile. They have talented youngsters coming up though.

Lineup: 1½*...they traded Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. They will try to trade Jonathon Lucroy (he set an all time record for catchers with 53 doubles in 2014). They can't trade Ryan Braun 'cause he makes too much money. They finished in the bottom ten in baseball in almost every offensive category last year. It will be worse this year.

Defense: 1*...Oh God does it suck. When they trade Lucroy knock another half star off.

Rotation: 1½*...if you listen carefully you can hear the dead arms rotting. Matt Garza? Taylor Jungmann? Willy Peralta?

Bullpen: 3*...the strength of the team! 3.40 ERA ranked fifth in the NL. They traded closer KRod however.

Leadership: 3*...Craig Counsell might get them to play scrappy ball and they could annoy people to death. But when your spiritual leader is Ryan Braun?

TOTAL: TEN STARS...FIFTH PLACE

Thus ends the saga of the NL Central! Join us next time while we desecrate the NL West.

And of course, the final predictions (I'm already in trouble with my Minnesota and Baltimore rankings!)

Hasta la Vista!

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 Predictions NL EAST

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: PREDICTIONS 2016

NL EAST

THE RATINGS:

5*stars= among the best of all time.

4*stars=really good

3*stars=a little above average

2 ½*stars=average

1*star=stinko

0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.

The National League is clearly delineated between the haves and the have nots. Everybody knows who has a chance and who doesn't have a prayer. The Zombie teams are Philly, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Colorado and San Diego.

It's not that the Zombies don't have good players...they all have two or three good players. But they are either in the middle of a rebuild (Philly, Atlanta, Cincy) or are just hopelessly confused (Milwaukee, Colorado, San Diego)

One way or another...unless there is some kind of fracking earthquake under some better team's stadium...the Zombies are already Walking Dead.

Two major injuries already to contending clubs: Pollock goes down with an elbow in Arizona and Schwarber runs into Fowler and tears up his knee real good in Chicago. Chicago has depth to survive but Arizona doesn't...

The NL East:

1^st place...New York:

Lineup: 3*...because they retained Cespedes to bat in the middle. Conforto is a threat and Neil Walker comes over from Pittsburgh.

Defense: 2½*...the outfield sucks. How the heck did Cespedes win a gold glove? He botches every other play. His incredible arm gets him out of trouble sometimes, but he's not great in center and indifferent in left. Conforto is minimal. Granderson is their best outfielder but he's old. Lagares is pretty good but he can't hit enough to play.

Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera are an upgrade at second and short but Wright's bad neck affects his play at third.

Rotation: 5*...I think the Mets starting rotation may wind up being the second best of all time. Here's a look at some of the best through baseball history:

Philadelphia Athletics of the early 1900's: Rube Waddell, Eddie Plank and Chief Bender...3 Hall of Famers.

Chicago Cubs of early 1900's: led by Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown, this staff also included three other very good to great pitchers...Orvie Overall, Ed Reulbach and Jack Pfeister.

Cleveland Indians of the early 1950's: Bob Lemon, Early Wynn, Bob Feller (HOF) and Mike Garcia.

Baltimore Orioles of late 60's early 70's: Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar, Dave McNally and in 1971 Pat Dobson joined them to give them four 20 game winners on the team.

Atlanta Braves of the 90's: Greg Maddox, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz gave them three Hall of Famers. They won 14 division titles in a row.

I'd put the Mets right behind the Braves if they stay healthy and do it for a few years. Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, helped by Matz, Wheeler and Bartolo Colon. Impressive!

Bullpen: 3½*...Familia is a great closer but they're a little light on set-up men. It makes them keep their young starters in the game too long and makes it more likely they'll hurt their arms.

Leadership: 3*...with that great pitching staff, why didn't the front office go out and score more help in the bullpen and in the lineup to push them over the top? Yeah, they made the series but they got throttled by the Royals and they don't have enough offense with Wright's neck problems. They also lose points for having a manager who let the fans and Brian Harvey talk him into leaving the tiring starter in to get beat in that key home game in the series.

TOTAL: SEVENTEEN STARS...FIRST PLACE

2^nd place...Washington:

Lineup: 3*...it's really just Bryce Harper carrying the offense. He can be pitched around, and last year was his first year without injury. Werth shouldn't be batting cleanup. Zimmerman was hot in the Spring but he has a bad history of getting hurt. So does Rendon. They don't have a leadoff man to replace Denard Span.

Defense: 3*...a little above average but age keeps this score low.

Rotation: 4*...if Strasburg lives up to his potential they could threaten.

Bullpen: 3*...they chose bad tooth Papelbon over Drew Storen when they needed both of them.

Leadership: 1½*...a certified head case team. A major underachieving disappointment for three years in a row. They have a lot to prove. Maybe Dusty Baker can get them to pull together but they are suspect until proven otherwise.

TOTAL: FOURTEEN AND ONE HALF STARS...SECOND PLACE

3^rd place...Miami

They might be able to have a winning season if Stanton can get through one year without a major injury. Dee Gordon and Jose Fernandez along with Giancarlo give them three of the top stars in baseball and they still don't have a clue.

Lineup: 3*...first four will scare you but the rest will lull you into a stupor of boredom.

Defense: 3½*...great up the middle.

Rotation: 2*...Jose can play but the rest...no way!

Bullpen: 3*...shows some promise at least.

Leadership: 2*...Mattingly was probably a good hire if he can stand to lose. But adding Barry Bonds as hitting coach? That's just crazy. Stanton is a stand-up star. FRONT OFFICE ERRATIC!

TOTAL: THIRTEEN AND ONE HALF STARS...THIRD PLACE.

4^th place...Philadelphia:

Lineup: 2*...Franco and Herrera (centerfield)...not much else.

Defense: 2*...Rupp takes over from Ruiz at Catcher...changing of the guard.

Rotation: 3*...Hellickson and some young arms.

Bullpen: 2*...needs work.

Leadership: 2½*...the old guys are gone. It's a new mix and they'll have to develop a new core of leadership.

TOTAL: ELEVEN AND ONE HALF STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5^th place...Atlanta

Massive rebuild but lots of young stars coming two years down the road.

Lineup: 2*...very weak. Bottom of baseball across the board. Only Freeman is left from their team of two years ago.

Defense: 2½*...so very average.

Rotation: 1½*...Teheran could be good or he could be bad...who knows? Really weak.

Bullpen: 2*...are you getting the picture? This team sucks!

Leadership: 1*...Fredi Gonzalez is a place holder manager at this point. Hard to lead when you know you're finishing last.

TOTAL: NINE STARS...FIFTH PLACE

Stand by for the ever-interesting NL Central!