Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 3

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 3

AL WEST

Correction from last blog...Adam Eaton, the center fielder of the White Sox...does not bat cleanup...I meant to say he's good at leadoff. I knew that...just a minor brain lock.

Once more, here is my ratings system:

5*stars= among the best of all time.

4*stars=really good

3*stars=a little above average

2 ½*stars=average

1*star=stinko

0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.

I'm rating teams in 5 categories: offensive lineup, defense, rotation, bullpen and leadership.

(Another note on ratings: A team getting 12½ stars would seem to be an “average” team since that's the way the numbers look. But remember, the ratings are based on historical norms, not just in comparison to other teams in any one season.

The way baseball looks these days, I would say a team needs at least 14½ stars to compete for a playoff spot, and that would be in a weaker division. Any thing over 18 would be a very strong contender for a playoff spot.)

AL WEST:

1^st place...HOUSTON

This is very close between Houston and Texas, with Seattle maybe sneaking in there if they can get it together.

Lineup: 3½*...starts out good with Altuve, Correa and Springer, but their cleanup guys are Carlos Gomez and Colby Rasmus. Evan Gattis is hurt and Singleton didn't make it at first so they have Valbuena and somebody else to try. Everybody strikes out too much. They did have 11 players in double figure for homers.

Defense: 3½*...Excellent in center, right and around the keystone.

Rotation: 3½*...overrated. Keuchel is not going to go undefeated at home this year. That was freakish. McHugh is a good 3 but McCullers is hurt at number 2. Fiers threw a no-hitter and had ERA of 2.67 but Feldman is a journeymen.

Bullpen: 4*...good last year but now better with Giles moving into the closer role and pushing everybody down a notch.

Leadership: 4*...seem to have a plan. Great spirit...inspirational leader in Altuve...the new golden boy in Correa. They got a taste last year and should be even hungrier.

TOTAL: 18½ STARS...FIRST PLACE

2^nd place...TEXAS

They came back to nip Houston at the wire in the regular season, then cratered in a nightmare inning in the notorious Bautista bat-flip game to lose in the first round to Toronto. (BAD JUJU watch for psych damage)

Lineup: 4*...they got some boppers all right. They're getting old though, and have a history of catastrophic injury. They added Ian Desmond, who is tearing up the Spring, to play left. He'll probably be a super sub all around the diamond. (The guy has to have maximum motivation after turning down $100 million from Washington to play short and then another $16 mil for one season only to not be offered anything but left field at Texas for $8 million on a one year contract.)

Choo and Fielder came back strong. Beltre has healed up. Moreland had his best year. Josh Hamilton is still hurt and probably a non-factor but Rougned Odor and Delino DeShields were great young players and Jurickson Profar is back after two years of shoulder miseries. I doubt if he can take over from Andrus at short (if only!) but he can hit and fill in.

Defense: 3*...gold glove at third with Beltre and a great arm in right with Choo but DeShields is a terrible center fielder.(The Rangers sometimes pulled him for another defender in late innings! Your center fielder?) Nobody else stands out.

Rotation: 3*...the hope was that Darvish would be ready to come back and team with Cole Hamels for a powerful double punch at the top, but he's not ready. If Darvish comes back healthy before June I'll bump this up a point.

Bullpen: 3½*...improved by the end of last season. Tolleson saved 35 games.

Leadership: 4*...they came back from one of the worst injury years any team has ever experienced in 2014 and became a winner again. Beltre is their Daddy and Fielder their Teddy Bear.

Odor is a very intense player and hit the second most homers ever by a player under 22. (16, and Mazeroski is first with 19) Hamels fulfilled expectations as a staff leader. The front office came through big time.

The Rangers seem like a loose team finally.

TOTAL: 17½ STARS...SECOND PLACE***

(***NOTE: the rumor is that Texas might a have deal in place for catcher Lucroy from the Brewers. Lucroy is one of the best and a real pro catcher can make a huge difference. If he comes over it raises their offense, defense and leadership by ½ point each, making the Rangers the new favorite to finish first in the AL West.)

3^rd Place...SEATTLE

The whole of 2015 was a toothache for the Mariners. The pitching was a disaster...they used 28 guys. Cano underachieved with stomach problems.

Lineup: 3½*...Cano, Cruz and Seager in the middle scare you but they got nothing from most of the rest. Marte might be good and I guess Lind can hit another 20 dingers.

Defense: 3*...an indifferent defensive team but Leonys Martin should help in center.

Rotation: 3*...Felix Hernandez...The King... is finally looking at the start of the downslope of his admirable career. Can Seattle rally and give him a taste of playoff baseball before the end?

They seem to think Wade Miley can pitch in their ballpark but they had to give up too much to the Red Sox to get him (100mph reliever Carson Smith and change) Walker, Karns and Paxton...one of these guys has to get a lot better for Seattle to win anything.)

Bullpen: 2½*...Benoit is ok but I am underwhelmed.

Leadership: 1½*...Cano has to pick it up to keep the front office from looking like suckers for what they agreed to pay him to bring him to their Death Valley ballpark. He is not a leader. A leader doesn't jog out every ground ball.

They travel more than any team in the big leagues because Seattle is so damn far away from everywhere else in baseball. Tires the players out with jet lag.

Yet another new manager in Scott Servais.

TOTAL: 13½ STARS...THIRD PLACE

4^th Place...OAKLAND

Lineup: 1½*...nothing remotely scary here. Not when Jed Lowrie is your number 3 hitter.

Defense: 2*...good outfield for a big park. Huge foul territory helps them here, hurts them offensively. Bad shortstop and lowest fielding percentage in majors.

Rotation: 3*...because of Sonny Gray...now an Ace.

Bullpen: 3*...much better this year with Doolittle healthy and Madson solid for the 8^th inning.

Leadership: 3*...no stress when nothing is expected. They are so out of the public mind that they sneak up on you with a bunch of no-names. Oakland always seems to have good team spirit. Their leader, Coco Crisp, may be healthy after neck trouble. BAD JUJU...suckiest stadium in baseball...a real rat's nest.

TOTAL: 12½ STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5^th place...LOS ANGELES

You're probably surprised to see them this low, but I think the Angels are headed for disaster this season.

Lineup: 3*...first of all...Pujols had surgery on his foot and it's bothered him for years. He hit his homers last year, but batted only .244. He is close to the end. Cole Calhoun hit 26 homers but struck out 162 times and had a .308 OBP. Trout was great but strikes out a lot and has stopped stealing bases.

Yuniel Escobar may help a little as their new third sacker, but the team as a whole finished near the bottom in every important offensive category except homers. They needed to add a hitting outfielder but didn't. Now they've got Daniel Nava playing a hitter's position in left and C.J.Cron is the DH.

Defense: 3*...last in double plays but new shortstop Andrelton Simmons should fix that.

Rotation: 1½*...C.J.Wilson is hurt. That leaves them with Garrett Richards and not much else. They needed to add a free agent or two but didn't.

Bullpen: 2½*...Houston Street is good but he's coming off a bad groin injury at the end of last season.

Leadership: 2*...Manager Scioscia may go if they struggle. Front office failed the off season. Nothing much on the farm. Hamilton disaster haunts them.

TOTAL: 12 STARS...FIFTH PLACE

Next Up: the ever-lovin National League East.

'Til then...PLAY BALL!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 2

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: 2016 PREDICTIONS PART 2

Todays' topic is the AL CENTRAL.

Once again...here is my 5 STAR rating system...scientific in every detail including GOOD AND BAD TEAM JUJU!

(Note: my ratings are based on historical norms, not just in relation to present day teams. In other words...if I give a team a Leadership rating of 5, I'm saying this team is comparable to great chemistry teams like Jeter's Yankees of the late 90's and early 2000's...or Stargell's Pirates of '79, or Dizzy Dean and the St. Louis Gashouse Gang of the 30's. An historical 5 Star offensive club would be the 70's Reds etc.)

5*stars= among the best of all time.

4*stars=really good

3*stars=a little above average

2 ½*stars=average

1*star=stinko

0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy.

I'm rating teams in 5 categories: offensive lineup, defense, rotation, bullpen and leadership.

“Leadership” is mostly managers and coaches, but also includes the roles of the front office, clubhouse chemistry and inspiration and the ever elusive “JUJU”...good or bad.

Breaking offense down into categories like speed and power doesn't change the overall effectiveness of your offense. You can do it like Kansas City with small ball and speed or you can do like Toronto and brutalize people to death. It's still just offense.

Having two categories of pitching weights the final score accurately (I think) in that it recognizes the supreme importance of your pitching staff.

I also figure in team depth.

AL CENTRAL

1^st place...KANSAS CITY

They've been to two World Series in a row and people are STILL underrating them. I've seen predictions that they would have a losing season, even. People are looking at their weak starting rotation and undervaluing their bullpen, defense and pugnacious can-do attitude.

Lineup: 4*...people are looking at raw offense and not making allowances for their extreme pitcher's ballpark. This lineup is stacked with good line-drive hitters, speed men, contact hitters and aggressive, knowledgeable pros. They had the fewest strikeouts (973...only team with less than a thousand and 200 less than anybody else)and also the fewest walks in baseball. They finished 24^th in home runs but 3^rd in batting, 1^st in steals and still 7^th in runs.

Defense: 4½*...great most everywhere, super in center, left, at first and catcher)

Rotation: 2½*...yep. Just average. But remember...they only have to go 6 innings. Ventura could eventually be an Ace...or he could stay an immature head-case.

Bullpen: 5*...Wade Davis is among best in the league along with Chapman, Miller, and Kimbrel. Their number 3...Soria...would be most team's number 1.

Leadership: 5*...a lot of these players came up through the system together. They are a Band of Brothers and that kind of leadership and team chemistry has been historically a priceless commodity. Perez at catcher is an inspirational guy who takes his lumps and keeps playing. Hosmer, Cain, Moose and Alex Gordon...are all real leaders.

The front office had a long-term plan to rebuild and stuck with it. They also tailored their club to their ballpark...something some of the other teams should try.

They've proven themselves a team that is never out of a game, and when you've done it time after time, you start believing in yourselves and your teammates. That kind of confidence saturates a team with a winning attitude.

TOTAL: 21 STARS...FIRST PLACE

2^nd place...CLEVELAND(tie)

Lineup: 2*...Kipnis and Lindor are good hitters. Santana has power. Their best hitter... Michael Brantley...is out for two months with a shoulder injury, and that's a tough injury for a hitter to come back from. Everywhere else they are pretty weak. Bottom half of baseball in runs, total bases and runners left on base.

Defense: 3½*...this is a good team defensively. Lindor might be special at short.

Rotation: 4*...the strength of the club. Carrasco and Salazar could be stars on the rise to go with Corey Kluber. But these pitchers get frustrated with a lack of offensive support. Other good arms on the farm to fill in when needed.

Bullpen: 3½*...might need another leftie sometime against certain teams, but good arms here too. This pitching staff as a whole finished 2^nd in opponents batting average last year. (.237)

Leadership: 3½*...manager Terry Francona keeps this score high. The Indians haven't gotten over the hump yet. If their pitchers turn into something like the Mets young staff they could get some confidence. Front office is lax in getting offensive players. (They need to have this pitching staff mixed with the Indians offense of the 90's!)

TOTAL: 16½ STARS...2ND PLACE (tie)

2nd place...MINNESOTA (tie)

This team baffles me. They barely have any pitchers who can throw 90. They're near the bottom in batting and on base percentage. And yet they win. They seem to have a gritty, spirited ball club. I chalk it up to a tradition of professionalism and leadership and some kind of Minnesota work ethic. Go Twinks!

Lineup: 3½*...the sum is greater than the parts. Dozier, Sano and Mauer are prime. If rookie Byron Buxton pans out and slugger Byung-ho Park delivers, this could be a much better lineup.

Defense: 4*...a very good defensive team.

Rotation: 2½*...workmanlike but never spectacular.

Bullpen: 2½*... nothing to write home about. Fairly reliable.

Leadership: 4*...GOOD JUJU? I don't know what else to attribute their success to. I think Paul Molitor was one of the smartest baseball players ever. He seems to have transferred that skill to managing. The front office realizes its financial limitations and goes about it's business. They lost last year's inspirational clubhouse leader Torii Hunter to retirement. Let's see how they step up.

TOTAL: 16½ STARS...SECOND PLACE (tie)

4^th place...DETROIT

If Cabrera and Vmart and Verlander were still in their primes...maybe. But those guys are injury prone and the new guys can't pick up the slack. If they'd built a bullpen 6 years ago they might won 2 or 3 series by now.

Lineup: 3 ½*...they lose points by only having one left handed hitter (switch hitter Victor Martinez) in the everyday lineup. And he is very injury prone. Cabrera won another batting title but hits fewer homers now that he can't push off on his damaged ankle. Vmart favors a bad left knee. J.D.Martinez is a great young power hitter to bat fifth and putting new comer Justin Upton in the second spot between Kinsler and Cabrera could be a master stroke to break him out. If all these players were in their primes it would be a 5* lineup, lefties or no lefties.

Defense: 3½*...Gose is fast in center but goes mental sometimes. Iglesias is a wizard at short but gets hurt too much. I like McCann at catcher. Cabrera should be a DH by now. Less chance of injury than playing first.

Rotation: 3*...Verlander has had to learn how to get by with ordinary speed...he's now a number 3, not a number 1. Jordan Zimmerman is a very good pitcher, but not a number 1. He's pitched over 800 innings over the last 4 years. Fastball not that fast any more. (It happens to all of them) Anibel Sanchez is coming off injury. Norris and Pelfrey? Who knows what they'll do. Suspect all around. Cross your fingers Tigers fans.

Bullpen: 2½*...improved but unproven. Seem to be counting on a lot at closer from an aging KRod.

Leadership: 3*...even with all that hitting they finished last in 2015. That has to hurt their confidence. There's been some bad clubhouse JuJu with Iglesias. I liked Brad Ausmus as a player but I'm not impressed with him as a manager. He makes me miss Jim Leyland who I think was a better type of manager for these older players.

TOTAL: 15½ STARS...FOURTH PLACE

5^th place...CHICAGO

There seems to be some kind of little war going on between the front office and the players over Adam LaRoche's young son hanging out in the clubhouse. It's given the season a sour start. Just what they needed. LaRoche retired and left $13 mil on the table rather than kick his son out after getting earlier permission.

Lineup: 1½*...this team was in the bottom six in every offensive category except batting (22^nd) and LOB ((10^th...cause they never had anybody on base!)Jose Abreu you can count on. They seem to think Todd Frazier can bat cleanup and do what he was doing in hitter-friendly Cincinnati but I predict Todd will have some of the first-year-in-the-AL-blues like so many hitters before him who were used to the NL style of fastball-first pitching patterns. (Albert Pujols,Hanley Ramirez,Pablo Sandoval)Also, Frazier won last year's home run derby at the All Star game...which is always the kiss of death.

The rest of that lineup is very weak. Adam Eaton is ok batting cleanup but ...guess what?...Melky Cabrera ain't gonna hit .345 anymore like he did when he was on steroids with the Giants. They lost LaRoche who was going to DH, so 5 through 9 is very light.

Defense: 1½*...they coughed up furballs in the field and played extremely sloppy ball. Newcomer Dioner Navarro might help at catcher.

Rotation: 3½*...4 lefties in the rotation. (Not so good when you've got to face Detroit 19 times!) Sale is a great Ace. Quintana and Rodon are both good. They all had ERA's around 3.50...could it be the terrible defense behind them and the anemic offense? It's a team sport, guys!

Bullpen: 2½*...Dave Robertson was good at closer and Zach Duke was occasionally effective. Everybody else was just spare change.

Leadership: 1½*...they have to fire Ventura if they get off to another rancid start. It might not be his fault but there's something rotten at U.S. Cellular Field. Four losing seasons in a row. The Cubs are relevant again and the parade is passing the White Sox by. At this point Hawk Harrelson is their leader and he's an announcer! VERY BAD JUJU!

TOTAL: 10½ STARS...FIFTH PLACE

COMING THIS WEEKEND: AL WEST! Tune into your inbox!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: "5-STAR PREDICTIONS ON A 1-STAR BUDGET!"

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE:

“5-STAR PREDICTIONS ON A 1-STAR BUDGET”

It's time for 2016 predictions and I know you've been holding your breath. But before we get going with the AL EAST let's take a moment to honor a baseball Ancestor. This is a player who rivals Ruth as a two-way star...Ace pitcher and batting King.

In honor of America's reset of our relationship with Cuba, let us pay homage to the greatest Cubano baseball player of all:

Called “El Maestro” and “El Inmortal”...the Immortal. He was the almost incomparable...

MARTIN DIHIGO

Induction Information Elected to Hall of Fame by Negro Leagues Committee in 1977, Negro Leaguer Born: May 25, 1905, in Matanzas, Cuba Died: May 20, 1971, in Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba Primary Position: Pitcher Bats: R   Throws: R   Played For: Cuban Stars East (1923-1927, 1930), Homestead Grays (1928), Hilldale Daisies (1929-1931), Baltimore Black Sox (1931), New York Cubans (1935-1936, 1945) Bio Martín Dihigo Llanos was perhaps the most versatile player in baseball history. Known as "El Maestro," he played all nine positions skillfully. Dihigo became a national institution in his native Cuba, but also starred in many other countries, including Mexico, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, also spending 12 seasons in the Negro leagues. Playing in the Mexican League in 1938, he went 18-2 and led the league with a 0.90 ERA, while also winning the batting crown with a .387 mark. Quote "He was the greatest all-around player I know. I say he was the best player of all-time, black or white. He could do it all."    — Buck Leonard Martin Dihigo started out as a quick, tall, rangy shortstop in the late twenties. He had such a great arm that they also played him at third and in the outfield before finally letting him pitch, but when he wasn't pitching he was playing somewhere else. Some seasons he would play all nine positions and manage at the same time. Most people say he was most like Joe DiMaggio in body type and all around talent. He could run and his arm was legendary. He once stood on home plate and threw a baseball that hit the wall in dead center on the fly. Many, many major league players say Martin Dihigo was the greatest player they ever saw. Johnny Mize, the Hall of Fame first baseman, played winter ball with him in 1943 when Dihigo was 38. Mize would hit 359 homers and also won a batting title in a career interrupted by WWII. He reported that he batted behind Dihigo and pitchers were walking Martin to get to Mize. That 1938 season: Being a batting champ and the best pitcher in any league at the same time is quite impressive, but this was a winter league loaded with major league stars and all the great Negro Leaguers. Dihigo was simply, “El Inmortal”. 2016 PREDICTIONS: This year, in a tip of the hat to my movie career roots, I'm rating these teams on the star system. 5*stars= among the best of all time. 4*stars=really good 3*stars=a little above average 2 ½*stars=average 1*star=stinko 0*stars=a real liability...they're playing the batboy. I'm rating teams in 5 categories: offensive lineup, defense, rotation, bullpen and leadership. “Leadership” is mostly managers and coaches, but also includes the roles of the front office, clubhouse chemistry and inspiration and the ever elusive “JUJU”...good or bad. Breaking offense down into categories like speed and power doesn't change the overall effectiveness of your offense. You can do it like Kansas City with small ball and speed or you can do like Toronto and brutalize people to death. It's still just offense. Having two categories of pitching weights the final score accurately (I think) in that it recognizes the supreme importance of your pitching staff. Let us proceed: AL EAST OVERVIEW: 1st place: TORONTO ...Mainly because this is their best shot and they know it. Encarnacion and Bautista are going to be free agents and will probably move on. They are just leaving their primes and can still get really hot and carry a team. But folks...that ain't all. They've got Tulo after he's had a chance to adjust to the new league. He's gotta be hungry for a pennant after all those terrible wasted seasons with the Rockheads. Donaldson is an MVP in his hitting prime, surrounded by lineup help. What will he put up this year with all the motivation he must have to win now? Add in Russell Martin's 25 dingers,Colabello's 15 and .321 average in 101 games, Smoaks 18 bombs in 296 Abs and the on-base/speed advantage of Ben Revere hitting leadoff? There is not enough right handed pitching in that division to control this line-up. Offensive lineup: 5 *...among the greatest ever! Led the majors in OPS by 45 points at .797! Defense: 4 *...above average almost everywhere. Martin a key at catcher and Pillar and Revere in the outfield. Installed new grass infield to save Tulo's legs. Rotation: 2 ½ *... if Stroman steps up and can be an ace, it might be a 3 ½. Estrada coming on. Happ, Dickey and Chavez are innings eaters who can win when the offense scores 6 for them every outing. They may need late season help from the front office here. Bullpen: 3 ½ *... Osuna a great rookie closer last year and Martin helps this unit at catcher a lot. Leadership: 4 *...front office wants to win badly and satisfy hungry fans who supported this team so well. No money but they went out and got help when needed. Managing seems to be “Here's your bat...another homer would be nice.” Bautista's salary demand was bad juju. But him and Encarnacion and Tulo and Donaldson and Martin all together? Great clubhouse leadership power. TOTAL: 19 STARS...FIRST PLACE 2nd place...NEW YORK … because their pitching is a little better than the Red Sox, mainly. Price of the Sox is the best starter on either team, but I think with Tanaka,Pineda and Severino the Yanks have stronger arms starting for them. The Sox staff stunk it up last year and they must re-prove themselves. Also, Bucholz is only good for half a season and you don't know how his replacement will do. The Yanks have a little better starting depth. The Yanks also have three spectacular horses anchoring their bullpen (even though the rest of the bullpen is inexperienced). Chapman, Miller and Betances trump Kimbrel, Uehara (40 years old), Tazawa and Carson Smith. The gap would be wider if Chapman wasn't missing the first month because he got violent with his wife. (file under Bad Juju) Plus Carson Smith of the Sox is hurt to start the season. Here's my breakdown of the Yankees: Lineup: 3 ½ *...their club is tailor made for their ballpark with left-handed power to lob homers over the right field wall. This would be higher if most of their guys weren't so old that they will probably get hurt. They have pretty good depth in that eventuality. Defense: 3 *...very good up the middle now that Starlin Castro has joined them at second. Pretty good everywhere. Rotation: 3 ½ *...see above Bullpen: 4 *...see above Leadership: 4 *...spelled M-O-N-E-Y. The Yanks can always buy themselves out of trouble if they really want to. And all those old pros on the team give them some quality leadership in the house. Girardi has proved himself a master of low-key New York media manipulation and is a quality handler of pitchers and respected in the clubhouse. The players know he has their back. This score would be even higher if not for: Bad JuJu: age, injuries, the big “S” on ARod's chest, Chapman funny stuff, huge unmovable contracts (see last issue) TOTAL: 18 STARS...SECOND PLACE Third place...BOSTON Lineup: 3 ½ *...weird combo of young stars, older stars and inconsistent stars. If they all do their best work...Wow! But that's asking a lot. Defense: 3 *...awesome in the outfield, more than adequate at second and short, miserable at first and third. Catching talented but young. (And the pitchers need help) Rotation: 3 *...mainly because of Price, but what are they going to get out of 2 through 5? Lots of possibles in depth chart but are they really good enough when the first team starts going down with the ever-recurring Bosox injury bug? Bullpen: 3 ½ *...a strength of the team. Kimbrel a great closer...Uehara, Tazawa pitched too much the last few years. They needed Carson Smith and his right-handed fastballs to handle Toronto and he went down early. Leadership: 3 ½ *...like New York, they have money if they need help. Dombrowski is a dynamic and knowledgeable baseball guy. Farrell is supposed to be Mr. Pitching Guru but they actually did much better when he was gone second half last year. Still paying the price for blunders like Hanley Ramirez, Panda and Rusney ($70+mil?) Castillo. If those guys turn it around....maybe. Off the charts leadership from Dustin Pedroia, Ortiz and (it looks like) now Mookie Betts. Ortiz's last ride should be good for some motivation. (Good JuJu) TOTAL: 16 ½ STARS...THIRD PLACE Fourth place...BALTIMORE Lineup: 3 *...they got Chris Davis back to team with Adam Jones and Manny Machado. That's a potent combo if they stay healthy. Defense: 4 *...very , very good. Rotation: 2 ½ *...very, very bad (if you're trying to win the East...otherwise average) Bullpen: 3 ½ *...very good actually with Zach Britton, Darren O'Day at the top. Leadership: 2 ½ *...everybody says Showalter is so great. Genius handler of pitching staffs. Well, the Orioles are in the lower middle of baseball in pitching. Also, Buck keeps griping about how the Yankees and Red Sox have more money than the Orioles do. Three words for you Buck...Kansas City Royals. If they had money the Orioles wouldn't spend it 'cause their owner is tight as a tick. TOTAL: 15 ½ STARS...FOURTH PLACE Fifth place...TAMPA BAY ...they finished higher over the last few years and didn't get the best high draft choices anymore. It's showing. They still have good pitchers coming through but a lot of them got hurt or had to be traded when they became free agent-eligible. They have a terrible park and just don't make any money. The franchise should be moved. Lineup: 1 ½ *...almost totally stinko. Only Longoria and maybe Loney are threats and any sane pitcher will pitch around them. Defense: 3 *...Kiermaier is the best in baseball in center. Keystone combo is young and suspect. (29th in baseball last year in DP's) Rotation: 4 *...as usual the Rays run out great arms every day. Not as much depth as in the past. Bullpen: 3 *...weaker than usual. Leadership: 2 *...Manager Cash isn't Joe Maddon. The front office can't seem to get a new ballpark. They should hire George Bush to teach them how to fleece the taxpayers to your own profit. The scouting department should get about a 4 ½ for identifying terrific pitching prospects over the years. TOTAL: 13 ½ STARS...FIFTH PLACE That's it for this issue. The rest of the AL follows in a day or two and then on to the National League. Check your mailbox and thanks for your kind attention! PLAY BALL!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: LIFE IS HARD WHEN YOU'RE DUMB

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE:

LIFE IS HARD WHEN YOU'RE DUMB!

Like the song says:

“Life is hard...but it's hardest...when you're dumb.

Inside your head...a dark and silent...vac-u-um.

If there's a blank behind your face,

Why not rent out the extra space?

Life is hard...but life is hardest...

When you're dumb!”

In this issue we recognize outstanding achievements in baseball dumbness (Dumbitude?) It should make for an interesting entree into the season as we prepare for our official predictions next blog.

BOSTON WRETCHED SOX: We begin with the all time champions. That's right, proud owners of the all time dumbest move in baseball history...this is the team that owned Babe Ruth...and sent him to the New York Yankees!

Ruth was the greatest power hitter baseball had ever seen, the best drawing card in baseball history and the best leftie pitcher in the American League to boot. THE RED SOX KNEW THIS! He was just entering his prime in 1920 when the Sox got rid of him. Consequences? Ruth is still the greatest offensive player baseball has ever had. Also the greatest drawing card. He started a Yankee dynasty and initiated 86 years of Boston futility.

They traded Zeus!

Step right up, Red Sox! You have Pride of Position in our examination of more recent dumbness.

CHERINGTON BITES THE DUST: After being declared the newest genius general manager for stocking the club with bit players and afterthoughts like Shane Victorino and Kojie Uehara and winning a World Series with them in 2013, Ben Cherington finished last in 2014 and panicked.

The whole idea about not spending money on high-priced free agents in 2013 was to bridge the gap for all these great young players the Sox had in their system. So for 2015

the Sox offered their Ace pitcher John Lester half of what he was worth on the market and then traded him. Then they went out and gave Rick Porcello...a number 3 at best... a long term contract at a high price sight unseen. Then Cherry went out and hired two free agents...Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.

By the All-Star game Porcello had an ERA of 5.90. They tried to make Hanley a left-fielder and he couldn't make even basic plays and lost them many games until he got hurt and was a liability the rest of the year. Pablo had about the worst WAR per salary dollar in the league for any position player!

The worst thing was not just finishing last again. It's that now you have Sandoval and Ramirez blocking great young players who could be helping the team. Moncada, Travis Shaw and Rafael Devers are all waiting in the wings but they have to watch Sandoval and Ramirez and their bloated contracts make the Boston infield the worst in the league defensively.

Bye Bye Ben Cherington! Don't let the door hit you on the way out!

NEW YORK BLOATED OLDIES: The Yankees kept giving obscene contracts to older players until they have a roster full of huge financial liabilities who can't even play because they're hurt all the time.

C.C.Sabathia is owed big piles of cash and has almost nothing left...except years to go on his contract. $50 million for 2 more years.

Texiera actually had a good power year with 31 jacks in 392 at bats but of course got hurt again and can't really do anything but hit an occasional bomb over the little league fence the Yanks have in right field. $22 million for 1 more year.

Beltran is a statue in right field. $30 mil for 2 more years.

Ellsbury...who everybody knew was a major injury-prone-type player whose major asset was speed when they got him started getting hurt and lost his speed and now is a below average player owed big gobs of moolah. For what? $110 million for 5 more years.

Brian McCann is an aging catcher on the DL a lot. Big contract. $66 million for 4 years.

Tanaka has a frayed rubber band for an elbow. Owed $111 million for 5 more years.

And of course, the Pillar of Dumb...the Yankees gave ARod a TEN YEAR EXTENSION for $275 million when he was already 32 and a known lying steroid cheat. $40 million for 2 more years.

Even for the Big-spending Yankees, that's a crippling amount of money tied up in no longer prime productive players. They've got no one but themselves to blame.

TAMPA BAY WRONGS: The Rays built themselves a ballpark in a location where their fans wouldn't go and ...surprise! They didn't draw. Even when they finished first they only drew 1.8 million. Now they're down to 1.2 million. Welcome to the world of Dumb, Rays!

TORONTO BLOG JADEDS:

JOEY “BAT-SHIT” BAUTISTA announced just before entering this, his last contracted season, that he would not be giving any home-town discounts to the Jays and intimated he would be expecting around $200 million and a six or seven year contract when he entered free agency.

Bautista is now 35! That means this mythical contract would last until he was age 42 or so. Given the recent history of players over 37 falling off the table production-wise, does he really think he's going to be offered a contract like that by anybody? (Correct answer: NOT!)

Hope you're happy in your wonderful bat-flipping bat-shit world Jose!

WASHINGTON GNASHINALS: This whole team has an aura of Supreme Dumbness...they dump Hershey's chocolate syrup over each other to celebrate their rare victories.

But the top dumb move ever may have been shortstop Ian Desmond turning down a $107 million contract extension for five years from the team in 2014. In 2015 he had a terrible season defensively and the offer was pulled. Then he turned down the qualifying offer of $16 mil for one year and turned into a free agent. The only offer he got was $8 million to play left field for one year for the Rangers.

You better talk to your agent again, Ian. You are now no longer a shortstop and you are about $100 million dollars poorer. That's some great bargaining there!

MIAMI MUCH MALIGNED MARLINS: They hired Don Mattingly to upgrade the poisonous atmosphere in the clubhouse and then went out and got Mr. Toothache Barry Bonds to “help” him with the hitters. One thing or the other, Miami!

MINNESOTA TWINKERBELLES: In 2010 catcher Joe Mauer hit .365 for the Twinks with 28 homers and 96 RBIs. The Twins decided to make him the face of the franchise and gave him an 8 year contract for $187 million...insuring he'd be on their team at least until 2018 when he would be 35.

Then they moved the team into outdoor Target Field where Joe couldn't reach the fences. Since then, in 6 seasons Mauer has hit only another 47 homers. So you take the primary offensive force on your club and put him where he can't succeed. Now Joe is no longer a full time catcher and is a no-power first baseman for the rest of his career. That's real dumb, Twinkers!

Actually the Twinks sacrificed the best home field advantage in baseball...playing at the nasty, loud old Metro Baggie-Dome... and got a brand spanking new park where they don't win as much. Onward, Twinkards, onward!

MILWAUKEE ABUSERS: Ah yes, the fabulous team from Wisconsin. They failed to recognize that they needed to rebuild, then when they did it was too late to get rid of the thorn under their saddle...Ryan Braun. Ryan is a player who can no longer avoid injuries now that his system is...ahem...let's say less bolstered? So the Brewers are entering Rebuild Hell slowly...sacrificing players like Gomez, Segura and Lucroy (he may be going to Texas) in a slow bleed while they have to keep smiling as they send Braun out there day after day to be the face of a dishonored franchise.

LOS ANGELES ANGST-ANGELS: Signed Josh Hamilton to a huge contract, knowing he was a frequent wagon-faller-offer and injury certainty. Then when Josh got hurt and depressed and was playing badly and started to hit the pipe again were shocked, shocked to discover he wasn't a reliable bet. So they ship him back to Texas and are still paying his whole salary!!! (Actually, Texas gives him about $8 million for three years while LA pays the other $63 million or so.)

That means LA will have paid $93 million for Josh to play two years for them where he played in 240 games and hit 31 homers total. And they are paying $63 MILLION so he can now play for their division rivals for three years!

I root for Josh to come back and redeem his career....but I can recognize supreme dumbness when I see it and the Angels just won the booby prize.

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS....nope, that's not right...Mariners, right?

I mean SEATTLE MARINATORS: Why did they think Robbie Cano would be just as productive at Safeco Field in his thirties as he was in his twenties at that New York Yankee bandbox? The only thing the same about Cano is his penchant for jogging to first on any groundball. Oh well, they needed a big name to bring in the fans.

Enjoy your money Robbie. Mariners, why don't you study the KC Royals if you want to build a winning team in a pitcher's park?

OAKLAND PATHETICS: I hate to sound like a broken record, but that Josh Donaldson trade was really dumb!

LOS ANGELES DRUDGERS: They don't have a lot of star power for the most expensive team in baseball. They do have probably the top farm system of anybody though so I guess they aren't THAT dumb...except for trading Dee Gordon who turned into a batting champion, Gold Glove second baseman who also led the league in steals. That's a lot of dumb to trade a player like that.

SAN DIEGO PUTRIDS: Where to start? Start anywhere....they just haven't figured it out yet.

COLORADO CROCKIES: How long does it take to figure out that the only pitchers who will succeed at Mile High Stadium are big power strikeout pitchers or sinker ball specialists. The Rocks just keep getting guys in the middle somewhere who get killed.

They're never going to get big free agent pitchers to sacrifice themselves on the Altar of High Elevation Doom that is Mile High, but couldn't they at least develop those kinds of pitchers down on the farm? Nope.

“Life is hard...but it's hardest...when you're dumb.”

So just sit back...and smoke a bowl...of opium.

If being stupid is your fate,

Just relax cause it's too late.

Life is hard...but it's hardest...when you're dumb!”

Next issue: SPRING PREDICTIONS: FINAL VERSION.

Marco's Baseball Blog-o-Roonie: Death or Glory

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: DEATH OR GLORY

...a short discussion of 4 of this year's MLB teams balancing on the knife edge...

BOSTON RED SOX: After finishing last in the division 3 out of 4 years, the Sox need to make a statement to keep their fickle fan base satisfied.

The good news: They finally got some of their young position players to produce...Betts and Bogaerts came on strong and should be dependable on-base type hitters for awhile. Neither one is much of a homer threat but doubles off the wall are nice and Betts especially has good stolen base potential. Jackie Bradley Jr. showed flashes of being a good offensive player. He's already lights out as an outfielder but has to hit to play.

Swihart and Vasquez are very promising young catchers. Trouble is, Swihart looks much better offensively and Vasquez is much better on D. That's too bad.

Possible Problem areas: Ortiz is 40 and retiring and he's still their most productive bat. It's dangerous depending on your oldest guy for offense. (See Yankees with Arod). Also, Pedroia is over 30 and getting hurt every year now. He's been their other inspirational leader.

Can Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval bounce back? You need good hitters at third and first and these guys were not that good last year. Come to think of it, you need a good bat in left too, and Rusney Castillo (the $70 million dollar Cuban) hasn't shown much at all. And at 29 he should be in his prime.

I think Hanley is over his shoulder issues and will be happier at first than he was in left. But Pablo's career may be done early. Guys that fat don't usually last too long unless they're named Ruth.

One caveat: Recently, National League hitters coming over to the American League usually gag on furballs their first year in the new league. That's because the National League is a fastball league where pitchers challenge you and the American is a breaking ball/finesse type pitching league. Albert Pujols went down a couple of notches when he went to the Angels from the Cards, even though Busch Stadium is more pitcher friendly. Tulowitzski slumped immediately on getting to the AL from Colorado. I expect Hanley and Panda both fell victim to this quirk and also the high expectations of Boston-town. (By the way, watch Todd Frazier on the White Sox after being a Red for a long spell...he could fall into this syndrome too.)

More questions: How is the pitching going to react? They have Price to lead the rotation. That can't hurt. And Kimbrel is the new closer..taking pressure off that fragile bullpen. You have to figure Buchholtz will get hurt as usual and miss half the season. That means Porcello, Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez better be good...because all the young pitchers the Sox have been developing in the last few years look like cat meat.

Pre-Spring Death or Glory Prediction: Hanley will hit but suck at first leading to controversy in the infield all season with Brock Holt and Travis Shaw getting a lot of playing time at first.

Pablo will continue to under-perform and the Sox will play Holt at third a lot too.

Rusney won't hit and Chris Young will be the left fielder.

Pedroia will get hurt again and the Sox will bring up another Cuban sensation...Yoan Moncada (49 steals in 81 minor league games)... to play second.

Ortiz will hit 22 homers but bat about .230 in his last season and the pitching won't be good enough to get them over the hump. Ultimately, the Sox are counting on 5 young position players to be as good or better than they were last year. (Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley Jr., Castillo and Swihart) They are also counting on their two old pros to have healthy seasons. (Ortiz and Pedroia) Then their two position players who are supposed to be in their prime have to come back from the wilderness. (Ramirez and Sandoval) And the pitching after Price and Kimbrel has to do a 180 degree turn and become solid again. That's counting on a lot of big IFS. In a tough division like the East? Third place.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS: The pins are deeply imbedded in this voodoo-doll team. Whose turn is it to gag this week? That was their motto last year. Now they have Dusty Baker...Mr. Player's Manager...to keep them loose and lead them to victory. The Mets are favored, but everybody...especially the team owners...need the Nats to step up.

Possible problem areas: Everywhere. The Nats are mostly old and fragile. Bryce Harper is Mr. All Everything but last year is the first time he's stayed healthy for the whole season and he must feel the pressure having to hit a homer every game for them to win. (Now he knows how Ted Williams felt).

They are counting on Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth to be their other big bats but those guys are old (Zimmerman and Werth) and hurt (Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth). And they owe Zim and Jamie millions upon millions of dollars that their diminished skills won't be justifying anymore.

More questions: Their starting pitching cratered behind Scherzer last year (and he was strangely slumping in between no-hitters!)Their number two...Jordan Zimmerman...is off to Detroit. Strasburg was terrible but is in his walk year and might rally. Bullpen is suspect...a C at best.

Death or Glory: Same as last year. Second place in the East...no wild card.

DETROIT TIGERS: Will the Bengals go extinct? I sure hope not cause I love some of their players.

The good news: Miggy, Vmart, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and now Justin Upton? That's some powerful lineup. They got Jordan Zimmerman as a number 2 and KRod to be the closer.

Possible problem areas: Of course Miggy and Vmart have leg problems and Vmart is the only left-handed bat in the lineup. Verlander is a shadow of his former self and not a real Ace anymore.

Death or Glory: What happens to injury prone offensive juggernauts who don't really have much of a pitching staff? They finish fourth.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES: Last time around for the Buccos? This is one of the best teams in baseball.

The good news: They have good players, a solid pitching philosophy and a great manager for that team. What they don't have is depth and luck. And money...they ain't got enough money to be a free agent player.

Possible problem areas: Their infield defense sucks. After Gerrit Cole they are counting on either very young (Tyler Glasnow) or very old (Liriano) starters.

More questions: the Cardinals are in their heads for sure. And now it looks like the Cubs...Especially Jake Arrieta...are all the way down into the brain stem.

Death or Glory: The Pirates have one of the best outfields in baseball with McCutcheon, Marte and Polanco. The last two are entering their prime and should improve on last year. They also have one of the best bullpens. They also found an unexpectedly solid catcher in Cervelli to handle the staff. If they stay healthy (again...not much team depth) and third baseman Kang comes back from his knee injury and has a good year to go with their veterans...I think this team will knock off the Cubs and Cardinals this year and win the division.

Nobody expects them too. Everybody loves the Cubs (for good reason I suppose). But that's why I don't think the Cubs win it. I think something is driving the Pirates to do it now and I think they will this year.

MY PRE-SPRING TRAINING PICKS:

AL EAST:

1/Toronto (Stroman and Estrada unexpected Aces)

2/New York (3 Bullpen supermen!)

3/Boston (still adjusting youth with vets...Price and Ortiz on the same club?)

4/Baltimore (got Davis back but no pitching)

5/Tampa Bay (all pitching, no lineup)

AL CENTRAL:

1/Kansas City( with Gordon back,good chemistry team prime)

2/Minnesota (over-achievers with good youngsters)

3/Cleveland (great pitch...not enough hit...late fade)

4/Detroit (oldsters can't stay on field)

5/Chicago (every year you'd think they'd be better)

AL WEST:

1/Texas (Darvish,Hamels,Beltre,Fielder,Odor,DeShields)

2/Houston (coming hard but too many holes)

3/Seattle (can they stay this bad? Wasting King's career)

4/Los Angeles (old, hurt, no starters)

5/Oakland (young and hungry...will compete)

NL EAST:

1/New York (because they got smart and got Cespedes)

2/Washington (Dusty improves chemistry...not enough)

3/Miami (talent and Mattingly makes them dangerous)

4/Philadelphia (only 'cause Atlanta is worse)

5/Atlanta (can they catch Philly?)

NL CENTRAL:

1/Pittsburgh (surprise! They peak at the right time!)

2/Chicago (brilliant adds Heyward, Zobrist but too many young guys out of position and K bait)

3/St. Louis (lost too much...young pitchers run dry)

4/Milwaukee (Suckola but Reds keep them from last)

5/Cincinnati (What's that smell? Dead Reds in the road.)

NL WEST:

1/Los Angeles (Dave Roberts works miracles)

2/San Francisco (Bochy and Bumgarner the best...but injuries do them in again)

3/Arizona (too many new pieces to fit right away)

4/San Diego (retool in bad park)

5/Colorado(no answer to getting pitchers to sign with them)