Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Marco's Baseball Blog-o-Roonie: Death or Glory

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: DEATH OR GLORY

...a short discussion of 4 of this year's MLB teams balancing on the knife edge...

BOSTON RED SOX: After finishing last in the division 3 out of 4 years, the Sox need to make a statement to keep their fickle fan base satisfied.
The good news: They finally got some of their young position players to produce...Betts and Bogaerts came on strong and should be dependable on-base type hitters for awhile. Neither one is much of a homer threat but doubles off the wall are nice and Betts especially has good stolen base potential. Jackie Bradley Jr. showed flashes of being a good offensive player. He's already lights out as an outfielder but has to hit to play.
Swihart and Vasquez are very promising young catchers. Trouble is, Swihart looks much better offensively and Vasquez is much better on D. That's too bad.

Possible Problem areas: Ortiz is 40 and retiring and he's still their most productive bat. It's dangerous depending on your oldest guy for offense. (See Yankees with Arod). Also, Pedroia is over 30 and getting hurt every year now. He's been their other inspirational leader.

Can Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval bounce back? You need good hitters at third and first and these guys were not that good last year. Come to think of it, you need a good bat in left too, and Rusney Castillo (the $70 million dollar Cuban) hasn't shown much at all. And at 29 he should be in his prime.

I think Hanley is over his shoulder issues and will be happier at first than he was in left. But Pablo's career may be done early. Guys that fat don't usually last too long unless they're named Ruth.
One caveat: Recently, National League hitters coming over to the American League usually gag on furballs their first year in the new league. That's because the National League is a fastball league where pitchers challenge you and the American is a breaking ball/finesse type pitching league. Albert Pujols went down a couple of notches when he went to the Angels from the Cards, even though Busch Stadium is more pitcher friendly. Tulowitzski slumped immediately on getting to the AL from Colorado. I expect Hanley and Panda both fell victim to this quirk and also the high expectations of Boston-town. (By the way, watch Todd Frazier on the White Sox after being a Red for a long spell...he could fall into this syndrome too.)


More questions: How is the pitching going to react? They have Price to lead the rotation. That can't hurt. And Kimbrel is the new closer..taking pressure off that fragile bullpen. You have to figure Buchholtz will get hurt as usual and miss half the season. That means Porcello, Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez better be good...because all the young pitchers the Sox have been developing in the last few years look like cat meat.

Pre-Spring Death or Glory Prediction: Hanley will hit but suck at first leading to controversy in the infield all season with Brock Holt and Travis Shaw getting a lot of playing time at first.
Pablo will continue to under-perform and the Sox will play Holt at third a lot too.

Rusney won't hit and Chris Young will be the left fielder.

Pedroia will get hurt again and the Sox will bring up another Cuban sensation...Yoan Moncada (49 steals in 81 minor league games)... to play second.

Ortiz will hit 22 homers but bat about .230 in his last season and the pitching won't be good enough to get them over the hump. Ultimately, the Sox are counting on 5 young position players to be as good or better than they were last year. (Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley Jr., Castillo and Swihart) They are also counting on their two old pros to have healthy seasons. (Ortiz and Pedroia) Then their two position players who are supposed to be in their prime have to come back from the wilderness. (Ramirez and Sandoval) And the pitching after Price and Kimbrel has to do a 180 degree turn and become solid again. That's counting on a lot of big IFS. In a tough division like the East? Third place.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS: The pins are deeply imbedded in this voodoo-doll team. Whose turn is it to gag this week? That was their motto last year. Now they have Dusty Baker...Mr. Player's Manager...to keep them loose and lead them to victory. The Mets are favored, but everybody...especially the team owners...need the Nats to step up.

Possible problem areas: Everywhere. The Nats are mostly old and fragile. Bryce Harper is Mr. All Everything but last year is the first time he's stayed healthy for the whole season and he must feel the pressure having to hit a homer every game for them to win. (Now he knows how Ted Williams felt).

They are counting on Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth to be their other big bats but those guys are old (Zimmerman and Werth) and hurt (Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth). And they owe Zim and Jamie millions upon millions of dollars that their diminished skills won't be justifying anymore.

More questions: Their starting pitching cratered behind Scherzer last year (and he was strangely slumping in between no-hitters!)Their number two...Jordan Zimmerman...is off to Detroit. Strasburg was terrible but is in his walk year and might rally. Bullpen is suspect...a C at best.

Death or Glory: Same as last year. Second place in the East...no wild card.

DETROIT TIGERS: Will the Bengals go extinct? I sure hope not cause I love some of their players.

The good news: Miggy, Vmart, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and now Justin Upton? That's some powerful lineup. They got Jordan Zimmerman as a number 2 and KRod to be the closer.

Possible problem areas: Of course Miggy and Vmart have leg problems and Vmart is the only left-handed bat in the lineup. Verlander is a shadow of his former self and not a real Ace anymore.

Death or Glory: What happens to injury prone offensive juggernauts who don't really have much of a pitching staff? They finish fourth.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES: Last time around for the Buccos? This is one of the best teams in baseball.

The good news: They have good players, a solid pitching philosophy and a great manager for that team. What they don't have is depth and luck. And money...they ain't got enough money to be a free agent player.

Possible problem areas: Their infield defense sucks. After Gerrit Cole they are counting on either very young (Tyler Glasnow) or very old (Liriano) starters.

More questions: the Cardinals are in their heads for sure. And now it looks like the Cubs...Especially Jake Arrieta...are all the way down into the brain stem.

Death or Glory: The Pirates have one of the best outfields in baseball with McCutcheon, Marte and Polanco. The last two are entering their prime and should improve on last year. They also have one of the best bullpens. They also found an unexpectedly solid catcher in Cervelli to handle the staff. If they stay healthy (again...not much team depth) and third baseman Kang comes back from his knee injury and has a good year to go with their veterans...I think this team will knock off the Cubs and Cardinals this year and win the division.

Nobody expects them too. Everybody loves the Cubs (for good reason I suppose). But that's why I don't think the Cubs win it. I think something is driving the Pirates to do it now and I think they will this year.

MY PRE-SPRING TRAINING PICKS:

AL EAST:
1/Toronto (Stroman and Estrada unexpected Aces)
2/New York (3 Bullpen supermen!)
3/Boston (still adjusting youth with vets...Price and Ortiz on the same club?)
4/Baltimore (got Davis back but no pitching)
5/Tampa Bay (all pitching, no lineup)

AL CENTRAL:
1/Kansas City( with Gordon back,good chemistry team prime)
2/Minnesota (over-achievers with good youngsters)
3/Cleveland (great pitch...not enough hit...late fade)
4/Detroit (oldsters can't stay on field)
5/Chicago (every year you'd think they'd be better)

AL WEST:
1/Texas (Darvish,Hamels,Beltre,Fielder,Odor,DeShields)
2/Houston (coming hard but too many holes)
3/Seattle (can they stay this bad? Wasting King's career)
4/Los Angeles (old, hurt, no starters)
5/Oakland (young and hungry...will compete)

NL EAST:
1/New York (because they got smart and got Cespedes)
2/Washington (Dusty improves chemistry...not enough)
3/Miami (talent and Mattingly makes them dangerous)
4/Philadelphia (only 'cause Atlanta is worse)
5/Atlanta (can they catch Philly?)

NL CENTRAL:
1/Pittsburgh (surprise! They peak at the right time!)
2/Chicago (brilliant adds Heyward, Zobrist but too many young guys out of position and K bait)
3/St. Louis (lost too much...young pitchers run dry)
4/Milwaukee (Suckola but Reds keep them from last)
5/Cincinnati (What's that smell? Dead Reds in the road.)

NL WEST:
1/Los Angeles (Dave Roberts works miracles)
2/San Francisco (Bochy and Bumgarner the best...but injuries do them in again)
3/Arizona (too many new pieces to fit right away)
4/San Diego (retool in bad park)
5/Colorado(no answer to getting pitchers to sign with them)



Monday, January 11, 2016

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: MYSTERIES OF THE UNIVERSE!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE
MYSTERIES OF THE UNIVERSE!

1/Why does the National League have 7 teams in rebuilding mode and the American League has none?

Against all laws of probability, half the teams in the NL fell apart the last two years. In the East, Atlanta and Philadelphia are total tear-downs. (Atlanta even traded one of the best closers in baseball just to get rid of BJ Upton!)The Phillies you know about.
And the Marlins? Who knows what the horse-pucky they are doing. They say they aren't trading their stars while they shop them (Fernandez). With or without him they are still a rudderless joke of a ball team. The first thing they ought to do is buy Stanton one of those hand protectors like Jeff Bagwell used to wear because all the pitchers in baseball throw inside on him regularly.

This leaves The Nationals and the Mets to fight it out in that division. The Nationals can't screw up as bad as they did last season, can they? They traded a closer, Storen, just to remove some of the friction in the clubhouse. Who they got left is Mr. Friction himself, Jonathon Papelbon. There's a bunch of other sore teeth in that mouth and we'll have to see if Dusty Baker can be a happy dentist.

The Mets must think they are great or something and didn't bother to keep their 3-4 hitters. Maybe they'll pick up an Upton or someone but right now they have taken a big step back. They won't have much competition in that division after the Nats. (Prediction: The Mets have lost two fire balling young starters to Tommy John in two years (Harvey and Wheeler)....even money says one of these four will also go down this year: DeGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, closer Familia.)

More rebuilds: NL Central Cincinnati, Milwaukee. Two more weak sisters for the Cards, Cubs and Pirates to beat up on.

NL West: San Diego and Colorado. The Padres failed miserably to redo last year. They're still fumbling around. Colorado hasn't done anything in the off season and seems to have given up. They are an embarrassment.

Meanwhile, in the American League, every team has at least a chance to make the post season. Oakland looks weak in the West, but they have some talent and pitching so who knows? I wouldn't bet on Seattle but they at least have some players. In the Central even the White Sox have pop and Chris Sales and Cleveland and Minnesota are pretty good. Every team in the East is competitive.

So we're looking at wide open baseball in the AL and a limited pennant race in the NL. Just one of Life's Great Mysteries.

2/Is it a Brave New World of intra-team computer warfare?

A Cardinals draft expert hacked into the Astros system and spied on all their draft evaluations starting in 2013.
The commissioner has to come down hard on this first time outrage. I mean , this is New England Patriots kind of cheating. Look to the Cardinals to get fined at least 2 million and their first round draft choice for the next three years. Only question, do the Astros get one of those draft picks as well as a financial compensation? Other teams competing with the Astros may get upset if the 'Stros get too much of an advantage.

This is the worst black eye that the squeaky clean Cards have gotten since they almost went on strike to avoid sharing a field with Jackie Robinson back in 1947.

3/Can feel-good managers change the chemistry in Washington and Los Angeles?

The Nationals hired Dusty Baker. The Dodgers hired Dave Roberts. Both of these guys are Mr. Popular types that get all warm and cuddly with the players. Will this work on these two undisciplined sour-puss teams?
I say Roberts was a good pick for the Dodgers, which might be the first sensible thing they've done under their new general manager Freidman. His other moves? Trading Dee Gordon to the Marlins so he could win a batting title, stolen base title and gold glove there instead of for the Dodgers, not offering an extra year to keep Greinke, trading for Reds third sacker Todd Frazier then shipping him off for prospects, trading for Matt Latos, keeping 6 outfielders who all should start somewhere and now hate each other, creating an all left-handed starting rotation (until they got the Japanese guy Maeda) etc. etc.

Maybe they need a good time Charlie type to make that club work. It was either that or go hard-ass with somebody like Kirk Gibson and I don't think that would have cut it with the spoiled Dodgers.

Dusty might make the Nats congeal, but his handling of pitching staffs has always been questionable and his in- game strategy perplexing. Could be one season and out if they don't win.

4/Why does the baseball world still consider Billy Beane a great genius?

The Oakland GM traded Cespedes, Addison Russell and Josh Donaldson for borderline prospects and a few months of John Lester and Samardja. Nuff said. The A's went from playoffs to last place fairly quickly.

Just another rebuild? Not when you had Donaldson locked up for three years and he's an MVP. Not when Addison Russell is close to being the best defensive shortstop in the league last year and looks like a star for the Cubs. (The A's also included first rounder Billy McKinney in that deal with the Cubs.) Not when you keep Ace Sonny Gray just entering his prime.

5/Will the Diamondbacks go broke before they win a pennant?

They might. On the other hand, Arizona has to go for it now while they still have Goldschmidt and Pollard under control. If they keep treading water, the fans will stay away and they'll be even broker. So Zack Greinke...”say hello to my $206 million leetle frands!”

6/Why does Ken Griffey Jr. get to be the highest percentage
first ballot Hall of Famer of all time?

Let's sing it: “Cause he's got “Personality, walks with Personality, talks with Personality...plus he's got a great big smile...”

Griffey was a great player, a good citizen, a credit to the game (for the most part) and a Hall of Famer for sure. No way he should be considered the most deserving player of all time for election to the Hall.

Jr. played in the second best hitter's era of all time in a hitter's park for the whole of his career. He led the league in homers 4 times, in RBIs once, in runs scored once and in slugging percentage once. He won one MVP and finished top ten 7 times. He never won a pennant. (That might have had something to do with how good the Yankees were in that era) He was a great defensive center fielder and stole about 9 bases per year on average.

Let's look at some of his contemporaries: Larry Walker (who has not gotten near enough votes for HOF induction) played in the same era in a great hitter's park half of his career (Colorado) and a terrible hitting park for the rest (Montreal mostly). Walker won 1 homer title, 2 on base percentage titles, 2 slugging titles, 3 batting average titles (he hit over .350 4 times for a .313 lifetime average while Griffey was batting .284.) His lifetime on base? .400. Lifetime slugging? .565. Both higher than Griffey's. Walker was a great defensive outfielder and stole about 14 bases per year on average. Both Walker and Griffey got hurt a lot. Walker won 1 MVP and 1 pennant when he played for the Cardinals late in his career.

Maybe Griffey was better than Walker, but it's close. And Walker gets no love from the voters.

Jim Thome's career coincided almost exactly with Griffey's and they played in the same leagues at the same times. Thome played in neutral parks for the most part but played 3 years in a hitter's park in Philadelphia and a couple of years in a pitcher's park in Minnesota late. Thome won 1 homer title (but hit over 30 in a season 12 times! Griffey did it 9 times.)He led in slugging once and walks 3 times. Thome had a lifetime average of .276 with an on base of .402 and he slugged .554. (Griffey once again was .284/.370/.538) Thome never won an MVP but finished top ten 4 times. Thome was on 2 pennant winning teams. He was a below average first baseman and couldn't run at all.

You'd definitely pick Griffey over Thome defensively and on the base paths but Thome was actually a more productive hitter. Thome isn't eligible for the HOF yet but when he is I doubt he'll get in on the first ballot.

Frank Thomas is in the HOF with a lifetime.301/.419/.555 average/on base/slugging stat line...all well above Griffey. He led in runs once, walks 4 times, average once, On base 4 times and slugging once. He won 2 MVPs and finished top ten 9 times. He was below average defensively and couldn't run. 1 pennant.

Now none of the above were ever accused of doing steroids. How about one who has been?

Jeff Bagwell can't get into the HOF...maybe next year. He's never been tested positive but is suspected of doping because of that one insane year in 1994 when he hit 39 homers in 110 games, batted in 116, hit .368 and slugged.750! And that was in the toughest hitter's park in the majors! Bags was also best friends with known doper Ken Caminiti but so was Biggio who was never suspected. Go figure.

Bagwell led in runs 3 times, rbis and walks once each and slugging once. His lifetime stat line: .297/.408/.540. Once again that's a little better than Griffey's. Bagwell, like I said, played in the exact same era in the worst hitter's park in the majors. He was a pretty good first baseman and stole about 14 bases a year. He won 1 MVP and finished top ten 6 times. 1 pennant.

I could keep going and name 4 or 5 more players whose lifetime stats are as good or better than Griffey's. And most of them did not have the advantage of hitting in bandbox ballparks for their home games.

Not to put Jr. down too much because he deserves to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. But so did these other guys and so far only Thomas is in.

But Junior has a great smile doesn't he?

Only 30 more days until Spring Training starts! See ya!



Friday, December 11, 2015

Marco's Baseball Blog-O-Roonie: HOT STOVE MELTDOWN!

MARCO'S BASEBALL BLOG-O-ROONIE: HOT STOVE MELTDOWN!

Welcome me back after a relaxing month of basking in the glow of my successful prediction that Kansas City would sweep the field and take the World Series. It's so gratifying to be right once in awhile. (Let's not mention my less accurate predictions that the Washington Nats would win the NL East over the Mets, that the Astros would finish last in the AL West, the Twins would finish last in the AL Central...well, just never mind.... how about those Royals!?)

Now it's the silly season for baseball rumor and ballpark innuendo... The Hot Stove Trade/Free Agent Binge wherein all fans worship at the altar of that one perfect player that will suddenly transform their team into a world beater.

It's so funny to listen to GMs and Managers and fans alike all repeating the same mantra for baseball success...

“We're looking for a top-of-the-rotation Starter,
a Power-bat for the middle of the order and some
bullpen help...especially a Leftie. All with controllable contracts. That's really all we need...”

Yeah...right! But if every team is looking for the same thing, how many do you think are actually going to score it? A few of the rich clubs might get hold of what they need...while all the rest go begging and wind up with players like Bartolo Colon in the rotation, Mark Trumbo in the middle of their batting order and leftie Oliver Perez coming out of the pen. And then they talk all positive about how these moves give them a “real shot” at the playoffs this year. Wrongie wrong wrong.

The big name stars of this Hot Stove episode were Aces David Price and Zack Greinke. Everybody was waiting to see where they would go collect their several hundreds of millions first so the rest of the pecking order could proceed in an orderly and predictable fashion. Jordan Zimmerman, Johnny Cueto etc. Then we'd move to the hitters like Chris Davis and Justin Heyward.

Whoops! The Detroit Tigers threw a fly into the ointment when they nabbed Zimmerman early. All the big market clubs were jockeying for position and telling themselves “if we can't get Price or Greinke we'll just pick up Jordan Zimmerman for less money and make HIM our Ace.” But when the Tigres signed Zim for a cool $120 mil or so it scra-zambled the well-laid plans. Next thing you knew, the Bosox grabbed Price by overpaying him $27 million more than runners-up St. Louis were offering (because otherwise Price would have taken $10 million less just to avoid going to his most hated team! But $27 million? “I guess I can stand David Ortiz after all!”)

Now Greinke was looking good and his expected salary ticking upward faster than Facebook stock. The main players were supposed to be the Dodgers and the Giants....NL West rivals who would bid him to the sky to avoid letting the other team have him. In all fairness, Greinke is probably the best bet of the big free agent pitchers of the last few years. He's a control artist....(a 'Rembrandt' if you will, in baseball hip parlance) who paints the corners with breaking pitches and change-ups to set up his sneaky 94mph fastball. Working in that pitcher's park at Chavez Ravine last year, his whip was in the .80s. Unheard of. And even though he's 32, Greinke projects to last a while...ala his doppelganger Greg Maddux.

So who gets him? The Dodgers? The Giants? A sneak attack from the Cubs or Yankees? What??? The Diamondbacks!!!??? Yep. The Arizona Afterthoughts actually outbid the big market clubs and got back on the map with this signing. Now they have a good young club with some up and coming stars like Archie Bradley who can learn from Zack while that good offense raps the ball in Chase Field. Greinke's ERA will go up a run, at least, in that ballpark but he'll still be the Ace they need. Instant relevance! Well done, Diamondhumps!

Now the Dodgers and Giants, both of whom were desperate for a complimentary starter to their Big Guns Kershaw and Bumgarner respectively, are left with only Johnny Cueto to save them. And Johnny was like the little girl with the curl last year. When he was good he was very very good and when he was bad he was horrid. Cueto already said no to a $110 mil offer from Arizona (before they got Greinke) which looks pretty prescient now that's he's the last Ace (or pseudo-Ace) standing. He'll cash in for some National League club...I predict St. Louis, who just lost their most effective starter from last year, John Lackey, to the Cubs. Maybe the Desperate Dodgers.

Here's a quick rundown of all the teams and their prospects:

AL EAST:

BOSTON BOTTOM-FEEDERS: It was probably worth it for the Sox to get Price because without an Ace last year they never matched up with other rotations. Of course, it's doubtful that Price, who is now 30, will last as a winner for the length of this contract. Power pitchers don't usually last into their late thirties (see Verlander,Justin...signed through 2019 and no longer an Ace.) Price is a good citizen who really supports his fellow pitchers on any staff he's been on. This signing gives the Sox a real shot at sending Big Papi out with one more playoff appearance before he makes his last bat flip pose. (Big Papi...the only “Ruthian” player we've had in baseball in many decades. He created legends.) Remember that Boston played very well the last two months of 2014 and their young players Betts and Bogaerts became stars. New closer Craig Kimbrel will also do well in the AL East.

NEW YORK YANK-YER-DOODLE DANDIES: Old. Older. Oldest. I've been saying this for years but even the Yanks themselves now acknowledge that they have to get younger players. I think they may bypass the free agent market and “go bad” for a few years while they retool. Really. Look at the big money DL players they have on their roster! Sabathia, Beltran, Texeira, Gardner (who will be traded), Ellsbury (never the same hitter after shoulder troubles of a few years ago and his speed is waning). When your big offensive star is Aging-ARod? They have a bullpen but with that overpriced, under-productive roster let's just say Girardi must be a genius manager to have gotten them into the wild card last year.

TORONTO ALMOSTS: Well, at least you went for it Blue Jays. You rented David Price for a half season and traded the farm for Troy Tulo. You just couldn't get past those pesky KC Royals. Now you don't have any depth in your farm system, especially pitching, and you are hopeful your starting staff doesn't have injuries, cause if it does you are screwed. You say you're going to bag a free agent pitcher but really, Jay Happ doesn't really count for much, does he? Here is Marco's adage: 'Toronto will never win steadily because no big free agents will sign in Canada with the bad exchange rate, higher taxes and lack of Mexican food.'

BALTIMORE BORE-RIOLES: Can't afford to lose Chris Davis, can't afford to keep him. If they do re-sign him they won't have any money for all the other stuff they need....corner outfielders who can hit, starting pitching, bullpen. They don't have much to trade either. “This is the End....my only friend, The End...of our elaborate plans, The End...”

TAMPA BAY PRE-SCHOOL FOR YOUNG STARTING PITCHERS WHO WILL EITHER BLOW OUT THEIR ACL'S OR BECOME STARS WITH OTHER TEAMS: Nuff Said.

AL CENTRAL:
CLEVELAND POLITICALLY INCORRECTS: Supposed to be on their way into the higher echelons because they have a Met-like collection of young power pitchers maturing fast. Plus Corey Kluber as a veteran Ace. Trouble is, they aren't that good of an offensive club and now their one big star, Michael Brantley, has hurt his shoulder. Have you noticed how many everyday players lose their hitting ability after shoulder injuries? Ellsbury hit thirty homers once, then hurt his shoulder and never regained any power to speak of. Hanley Ramirez was killing the ball last year until he ran into a fence...the rest of the season was nil power-wise. Matt Kemp hit 39 homers for the Dodgers in 2011 (should have been the MVP over steroid Ryan Braun...and no bold typeface for you Ryan)) then hurt his shoulder (and hamstrings) and has hit just 77 in the four years after. So anyway, I think Cleveland is in trouble.

MINNESOTA OVER-ACHIEVING BUNCH OF NICE TWINKIE FELLAS: My new heroes even though they made me look bad last year by winning more than they had any right to. Just a hustling bunch of good players with an inspirational Hall of Fame manager and now a new Korean power threat (Byung-Ho Park)to compliment Sano.

CHICAGO WHITE SUCKS: Really Chisox...get it together. You have one of the best Aces in baseball in Chris Sales but your offense hits like a bunch of wood elves. None of your trades worked out and the whole team except Sales seems to be under achieving. Look at Kansas City winning with bullpen, speed and defense. Hint Hint!

DETROIT ALMOST-EXTINCT TIGERS: It's the last gasp of an almost great club. They lost two World Series in the last decade and won several division titles. Their owner is not afraid to spend his money. They have had four or five of the top pitchers in baseball on their roster...sometimes two or three at once. They have had the preeminent hitter in all of baseball on their team for a while now and some other worthy studs. But they haven't been dealt the hero card yet. They remind me of the Seattle teams of the nineties who had superstars but never won.

Now they traded Price cause they knew they couldn't sign him, just like Scherzer before him. So they got Zimmerman, who is good, to help what's left of Justin Verlander. They got KRod to be their closer, but the bullpen is still weak. Their two top hitters, Cabrera and Victor Martinez, should both be DHs now. (Even with that they'll hurt themselves just running the bases.) All those great young pitchers they got from Toronto in the Price trade aren't quite ready but if one or two of them step up... I think they have one more run in them. Go Tigers.

KANSAS CITY KING-FOR-A-DAY ROYALS: It seems a shame that they can't keep the old ball team together. What a glorious year they had! But that's the Hideous Reality of small market clubs...no way Jose can you keep them down on the farm after they've smelled the millions waiting for them in free agency. Bye Bye Big Homer guy Alex Gordon. Bye Bye Ace-for-a-day Johnny Cueto. But they still have the core and they have the bullpen and they have speed, defense and confidence. Let's see how far that gets them in 2016. I say probably to the top of the division again at least.

AL WEST IS THE BEST:

HOUSTON IMPOSTROS: Imposters because these can't be the Astros we all knew and loathed as existential losers for all these bitter teasing years? They took us from dubious (“They can't be this good...they're just on a hot streak and they'll fold”) to hope (“Wow! Maybe a team that strikes out 14 times a game can win anyway!”) to euphoria (“Now that Chris Correa is the new Willie Mays how can we lose?”) to dashed dreams (“I knew they'd do this to me! Why Oh Why did I buy in again?”)

They've dumped Scott Kazmir who was a dud for them. Also “Let-me-hit-solo-homers-only-and-strike-out-anytime-guys-are-on-base Carter. But something has changed in Houston. They have good young players all over the place and solid pitching. The bullpen has been addressed with new closer-type Giles coming over from Philly via trade. (The Astros were prospect rich but have spent their dime). I pick them to win the West so far...

TEXAS REVENGE-OF-THE STRANGERS: Another surprise. The Rangers showed some real grit and clung to life for another run at post season glory. Even though they had an ugly meltdown in Toronto to end the season, they made a good noise. If big Yu Darvish comes back strong to go along with Cole Hamels they have a one-two to match Keuchel and McHugh down in Houston. Should be a great battle this year.

LOS ANGELES FALLEN ANGELS: “First we had to eat dirt from the Oakland A's and Texas for a few years. Then we went out and got Pujols and found a diamond in the draft in Young Trout. We traded for Josh Hamilton to put us over the top and he smoked crack until we gave him back at our expense. Now Pujols has a hurt foot and our erstwhile Ace Weaver is washed up (and how) and we got beat by Houston of all people and even got nudged by what's left of Texas. Our defense is shaky so we got Andrelton Simmons from the Braves. So can we please win?”

Nope. They called your number a few years ago Angels, and you forgot to step to the front of the line. Welcome to Hell.

SEATTLE RHYME-OF-THE-ANCIENT MARINERS: They must have screwed up and killed an albatross to incur this much decades-long bad fortune. They hocked their future payroll to get Robbie Cano and he (predictably) wasn't the same hitter in that lousy home ballpark that he was in Yankee Stadium where his pop flys were all homers. They never got pitchers who could compliment the Great Felix Hernandez and they don't seem to realize that outside of Nelson Cruz nobody is going to be a fearsome slugger in Safeco. If they paid any attention they would realize that teams in big ballparks have to win with pitching, defense and team speed ala the Royals. Wake up Seattle!

OAKLAND TRADING-BEANEHEAD IDIOTS: Billy Beane: You used to be a genius and they made a movie out of your brilliant career and you don't even look like Brad Pitt. So now you think any trade you make is just groovy. What? Did Josh Donaldson break your daughter's heart or something? Who'd you get for him again? Three guys in A ball?


SENIOR CIRCUIT: Where people applaud pitchers who manage to hit a ground ball the other way instead of striking out. Oh God, the purity of it all! Well, was baseball pure back in 1912 when they used one mashed up spit upon blackened baseball per full game and everybody bunted every other at bat? Sure it was. Let's not change for God's sake! It might disrupt the boring purity of it all!

NL EAST COAST BIAS:

NEW YORK METROSEXUALS: (I don't know why I call them that. Maybe it's all the long hair?) This is what is wrong with baseball in the free agent era. The Mets came blasting out of the pack and knocked off the favorite Nationals and then steamed through the playoffs and into the World Series largely because two hitters...first Cespedes and then Murphy...got insanely hot at crucial times and carried their otherwise pathetic offense. Now the Mets don't expect to keep either one of them. Loyalty is a dollar bill in this era.

They somehow screwed Pittsburgh out of Neil Walker and also got Asdrubal (strangest name in baseball) Cabrera. That gives them an impressive keystone combo. Too bad they're too cheap to keep Cespedes. (Rumors of a trade for the Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez. Do it Mets!)

WASHINGTON UNMENTIONABLES: What terrible team chemistry! Maybe the new manager Dusty Baker can get these bozos on the same page. Papelbon actually choked Brash Boy Bryce in the dugout. Harper is a prodigy, but they need some kind of veteran on that club that Bryce will respect and listen to so he matures just a little. The Nats have lost about half of the team. They lost half of their pitchers including Zimmerman, Thornton, Jannsen and Fister. The starting shortstop Desmond is gone and the center fielder and leadoff hitter Denard Span. Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Rendon are all coming off serious injuries. Their once vaunted rotation is now suspect after Scherzer. They'll sign somebody I guess but that's a lot of holes. Baker, remember, absolutely ruined the careers of his two Chicago Cubs stud pitchers Kerry Wood and Mark Prior with high pitch counts. Prior was averaging 126 pitches a game from September 2003 through the playoffs and was never the same.
Get ready for trouble if he pulls that with Strasburg.

ATLANTA DISMANTLERS: What the fuck are they doing? Rebuilding is one thing, but trading every decent player they have for prospects that need 2-3 years to mature? They trade Andrelton Simmons, the best fielding shortstop in baseball? They traded Kimbrel? Justin Heyward for Shelby Miller and now they trade Miller? They got some real good prospects from Arizona but they better hope those prospects include some Mike Trout, Bryce Harper type stars or they'll lose their fan base. Would you buy a season ticket to see what's left of that roster?

PHILADELPHIA DECONSTRUCTORS: Cliff Lee is coming back. One of my favorite players but he's 37 and his arm is glass. Hell, maybe they can do an arm transplant on Roy Halladay and re-trade for Utley and Rollins. Give Mike Schmidt some Viagra and haul his ass out to third base. I bet they'd draw fans. I hear Steve Carlton isn't busy. Anybody got Greg Luzinski's number?

MIAMI (OR SHOULD WE BE FLORIDA THIS YEAR?) SCHIZOPHRENICS:
Ugga wugga! Me start ball team in Florida! Me build shitty ballpark! Me sign Giancarlo to lifetime contract and promise pennant push! Me get new GM and manager every other year! Me hire Barry Bonds to create new era of good feeling and lovie dovie public relations. Now me trade all other stars. Listen to deals on Dee Gordon and Jose Fernandez and Ozuna. Me still got Ichiro so what problem is? Me go back to crooked Jai-Alai games!

NL CENTRALIA:

PITTSBURGH-THE-ACCURSED: The Buccos can't catch a break. They are the ultimate fan tease, playing great all year and roaring into the playoffs but only as a wild card. Then one hot pitcher shuts them out for two years in a row. The apocalypse is coming in the form of free agency for Andrew McCutcheon and others. They'll have to start trading people before they all walk away. Really a shame. They were out of it for what, thirty years? I think they have to break through this year or forget it but now they have the Cubs to deal with as well as the Cardinals.
Pirates, I suggest you buy a few pitchers, don't trade Neil Walker and make sure you replace Alvarez with a good hitter...it may be awhile before you pass this way again.

(*New Development...the Pirates just traded Neil Walker to the Mets for spare change. Bad move...he had one more year before free agency and the Bucs could have used him to try to win once before the apocalypse. Walker was killer in the clutch for them last year.)

CHICAGO CUDDLIES: Finally, a team that seems to know what it's doing! Epstein and friends have guessed right on a bunch of young players who are now productive and exciting. They made that great trade that got them Arietta and he turned into Sandy Koufax. They went out and signed John Lackey which helps them back-up Jake and John Lester while simultaneously damaging St. Louis by taking away the man who was their number one starter by the end of last season.
They signed Ben Zobrist to (probably) play mostly second base for them and they traded Starlin Castro who has been behaving himself lately but has been a real attitude problem in the past. They will still likely add pitching and a center fielder but it all seems well thought out and it seems like they are getting the right kind of players to go with their very young team. Seasoned vets who want to win. I'm pickin' 'em this year.. (for the NL Central at least!)

(*New Development...the Cubs seem to be challenging St. Louis to get Justin Heyward. The Angels are in it too. Wouldn't it be devious of Epstein to not only take Lackey away from their Central rivals, but Heyward too? It would be even smarter if they were trying to bid St. Louis up and bleed them of extra money.)

ST.LOUIS DISABLEDS: Wow! The Cards must be thinking ...Holy Shit! We lose half the team to injury and still kick ass the whole season and win the division going away before what's left of our starting staff disintegrates and we can't put it away. AAAAARGGHHH! Now, as usual, the Cards retool and get what they need via a combo of great minor league call-ups, shrewd trades and an endless supply of good arms. They have two new outfielders (Randall Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty) who look pretty good. If they sign Chris Davis to play first base and hit homers and the young outfielders are good enough to make people forget Justin Heyward they'll probably contend again...although Pittsburgh and especially Chicago have closed the gap. At least, St. Louis is a welcome anomaly in this era because they are a (very) small market club who has expanded their fan base with good public relations, a winning attitude and consistently competitive teams. Thank God for the Cardinals.

By the way, not resigning Heyward is a wise decision. His asking price is in the $200 million range. For what? A great fielding right fielder (note that last: RIGHT FIELDER...the next to last most crucial fielding position.)
Right fielders don't change the whole team with their defense, they only get about 3 or 4 plays a game...once a week they have to make a sliding catch. Twice a week they have to make a strong throw. That's not enough to justify a huge contract for somebody who can't hit for power. Okay, he's a good base runner. That's worth $200 million?

(WHAT USED TO BE)CINCINNATI REDS: The Reds probably wish they could just swallow a handful of reds and sleep through the next few years and wake up with a good team again. They are in serious trouble. They have no money to fix it and nobody they can trade. (Vuotto loves The Natti and refuses to leave...and his contract lasts forever so even though he's good, he's gonna play out his career on a loser. Why couldn't he allow himself to be traded to Boston say, where the Sox would gladly give up 3 or 4 hot young prospects to get Vuotto and his huge contract and his high on-base percentage? Which always gives the Red Sox a hard on.)

MILWAUKEE WHY-BOTHERS: Brewers...you don't realize it but you are cursed. As long as Ryan Braun is your big star you won't win. Why? Because he has angered the Baseball Gods and he must ATONE! You shouldn't be able to cheat your way to an MVP. (Wonder where Sammy Sosa is right now?) Trade Braun instead of Lucroy. Then we'll talk. Seen any pictures of Braun with his arm around Robin Yount or Paul Molitor or any of the other Brewer greats of the past? Didn't think so. He is shunned by all true baseball fans, as is Barry Bonds and the other Mega-Cheaters of the medicinal era.

NL WESTERLIES:

L.A. WE'RE DOING-YOU-A-FAVOR-BY-LETTING-YOU-BE-IN-THIS-LEAGUE-WITH-US DODGEHEADS: Oh you handsome Dodger Devils you! How could anybody have the nerve to turn down your dollars? You decided Greinke wasn't worth an extra year and a few extra million on his contract and let Arizona steal him. Your payroll was already an absurd $240 million and you have the money and Greinke was going to get paid one way or another anyway and you needed him bad. Greinke was almost a sure thing every game out last year. There is no replacement for him. Hope you enjoyed saving your money. Maybe you can spend it on Hyun-Jin Ryu's next arm surgery.

I often mention the Philadelphia Phillies' huge mistake of a few years ago when they signed Roy Halladay but traded Cliff Lee at the same time to “rebuild their minor league system”. So instead of keeping two Aces for long enough to win a couple of titles, they remained just good enough to lose out on a couple.

You got your foot in the door Dodgers...do you have the guts to close the deal?

SAN FRANCISCO IF-IT'S-AN-EVEN-YEAR-WE-WON'T-STINK GIGANTES:
They need a true power hitter. They really, really need a number two starter behind Bumgarner, yet they won't re-sign Leake... who everybody else seems to covet... but hang on to Peavy at $9 million a year and pay $10 mil a year for Samardzija (He of the 4.99 ERA last year!)

I am willing to concede that the Giants front office is smarter than me. They have a winning track record (in even years) to prove it...I guess. You got to like their shortstop/second base combo of Crawford and Panik. But this team is injured and stays injured. Almost every star is down for significant time every season. They're always plugging holes with a Blanco or some other non-hitter. And Bumgarner is pitching too many innings. I know he's a Bear but preserve him just a little bit, Bruce Bochy!

ARIZONA COMPRESSED-COAL-INTO-DIAMOND BACKS: The Dodgers and Giants better get serious 'cause the Humps are coming! Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart are making a splash in Phoenix. The Greinke deal was awesome for their morale and even though they gave up a lot in that trade for Shelby Miller, they needed starters to be relevant and they have to win now while they still have Goldschmidt and Pollock signed. (What are those guys going to bring in free agency?)

The thing I like about the Diamondhumps is their cool names. Tuffy Gosewisch, Socrates Brito, Gabby Guerrero, Yasmany Tomas... If they win they'll be a publicist's dream...and they just might win this year.

SAN DIEGO DEFROCKED PADRES: How can a team makeover fail so spectacularly? Well, your three big gets last year were Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Will Myers. Trouble was, all of them had to play in the outfield and they couldn't hack it. You need a speedy center fielder out there to cover for the slow guys in that huge ballpark. So they had 3 slow guys and they got burned.

Also, Matt Kemp had a pretty good year statistically by the end, but started off so cold that they never recovered. The Padres were buried by May and it didn't matter what Kemp was hitting anymore.

Myers failed to launch. Upton was pretty solid all year but his power was also muted by Petco. Will Middlebrooks was a disaster at third...they had to flat out release him. They will lose Upton to free agency. They traded Kimbrel for prospects so they now suck in the bullpen. Their starters might have done well if they had some defense behind them but the Padres tried to win without a shortstop. They still need one.

Even with a new manager, this team is adrift on a Sea of Pain.

COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAIN DUDS: Boy, this is getting to be a sorry excuse for a franchise. No matter how much they freeze the baseballs, they still can't get anybody who can pitch to play for this team. And they don't have enough offense to compensate and outscore people. Dozens of Rockies get hurt every year. Watch out or they'll move this franchise to San Antonio. (Hey! Good idea!)

Let's think of something nice to say about the Rockballs. Oh Yeah, Nolan Arenado can really play.

Thus ends my acid-tongued thesis on the state of baseball here on the last day of winter meetings. If I seem to be remarkably sour on the prospects of so many teams, it's because I get frustrated by the constant moving of players and the imbalance between large and small market clubs and the seeming impossibility of anybody keeping any kind of team together for more than a year.

It was a different era in my youth. Every year you knew who the Dodgers were going to be...Duke Snider, Gil Hodges, Jackie Robinson, Carl Furillo, Roy Campanella, Pee Wee Reese...maybe they'd get a new left fielder once in a while. The Yankees would have Mickey and Yogi and Whitey...the Braves would have Aaron, Mathews and Spahn.

Yeah, I know...the teams stayed consistent because of the reserve clause forbidding players from being free agents and letting teams bid for their services and that wasn't fair...but free agency has cost us the pleasure of consistent rosters of stars staying with teams so the fans could really take them to heart. That aspect of the modern game depresses me.

What could possibly cheer me up? How about a Stan Musial story? That always seems to work...

Stan had the habit of always signing his contract before the Cardinals entered a dollar figure. (I know...hard to imagine today!) He said he trusted the front office to pay him what he was worth. He was always one of the highest paid players in baseball and was the first $100,000 a year player.

Stan had his first ever bad year in 1959, hitting .255 while playing hurt in only 115 games. (This after 16 years of hitting around.350 every year with 30 dingers and 100+ RBIs). So in 1960 Stan signs his blank contract and the Cardinals give it back with the salary line filled out with the same amount he got the year before...$100,000.

Stan tells management that he'd been overpaid in 1957 and 1958 and his salary should be based on what he did in 1959. (In 1957 his stats were .351/29/102 with an on-base of .422 while slugging .612. He finished second in the MVP voting that year. In '58 he only batted .337)

Stan crosses out the $100,000... and puts in $80,000.

Then he goes on a fitness program and by 1963 he's back up to hitting .330.


Thank you God, I just want to play baseball in the sun.

Those were the days my friends...we thought they'd never end...”

Happy Holidays!---Marco



Sunday, November 1, 2015

Marco's Blog-o-Roonie Series Notes Post Haste

Marco's Baseball Blog-o-roonie

Series notes Post Haste:

Game 1: You can't start off a series better than the Royals did: an inside the park home run by Escobar that pumps adrenaline into the fans and crushes the spirit of the opposition when their studly outfielders botch the play. You're up a run and the other team is getting the Vapors.

The next best thing is when you are down late, one of your favorite sons parks one in the eighth to tie the score. (Alex Gordon)

The next best thing is to play in a classic extra inning game and win it like the Royals did.

BAD JUJU FOR ROYALS HOWEVER: They are supposed to be a great defensive team but Hosmer failed to get in front of a slow grounder and butchered it. It cost them a run...like practically every other error in this series has so far.

More Badness for KC: they had to pitch their game 4 starter, Chris Young, 4 innings in game one. Of course he held the Mets scoreless so it was probably worth it...but how is he going to do in Game 4?

Also, Volquez's Daddy passed away and he has to go to Dominica for the funeral then get back in time to pitch game 5....how is he going to be? I sense trouble on the horizon...they better win at least one in New York.

Also, their eighth inning 100mph gunner Herrera pitched badly and threw 35 pitches....bodes ill for the rest of the series.

Game 2: Wipe out. Cueto allows only two hits? I guess that 5 day layoff did affect the Mets hitters. Cueto is Jekyll-Hyde in the Playoffs. Is he back to Hyde next start if it goes 6 games? The magic is sure gone for Danny Murphy...that layoff took him right out of his game. Only two singles in the first 4 games of the Series.

Game 3: Perez is like a rock at catcher for the Kcs. He gets hit by foul balls over and over...on the thumb even! And he still gets big hits and never gets in fights with the umpires...I think the umps love the guy cause he's so big it protects them from getting hit by those foul balls.
I think Perez is the MVP of that team. Zobrist is doing pretty damn good too.

They get smoked in this game by clutch hitting by the Mets...finally! Mets inspired by their “Captain America” David Wright hitting a homer. (Can we just stop with the Marvel comic names? Dark Knight and Thor etc. etc.?)
Thor pretty much announced he was going to brushback Escobar to start the game ...then he threw at his head...then he bragged about it in the locker room after.

Hey Joe Torre! You've suspended guys all season for throwing at people, whether they hit them or not. It's the new policy of MLB and all that to protect your million dollar players. This guy is smugly bragging about throwing at a guy's head...not at his chest mind you, but right up at his head...if his control is just a little off you've got another ball to the face like Stanton got last year.
Nobody does nuttin'. Is it because Syndergaard is so cute with all his blonde hair and looks good on TV and baseball likes ratings that he didn't get tossed? Or even fined?

I like old time baseball too...but not at the head...chest high is as far as it should go.

Ventura looked young and undisciplined in this game. Threw a lot of meatballs. What's he gonna be like if the series goes 7 and he has to pitch that ultimate game. Sweat Royals, sweat!

More bad defense by KC...Ventura didn't cover first on the hopper into the shift...cost a run. And Morales had a brain cramp on a comebacker that should have been two. WE won't see much more of him I don't think.

Game 4: The Mets should have won this game. They brought in their sub-bullpen with all that weak meat and the Royals pounced. More bad defense by both teams! It's been the defining factor because all the mistakes have led to runs.
Rios went to sleep in a critical moment out in right field and forgot how many outs there were...(in THIS game???) costing a run...or at least the opportunity to throw the runner out at home on the sac fly. Inexcusable.

Then the Mets miracle Murphy came to earth with a thud when he whiffed on a slow roller that let in the tying run. (I think it was the tying run?)

Wade Davis was great pitching 2 relief innings. The Royals defense was laughable when they shifted for Murphy, leaving only Moose Moustakas to cover the whole left side. Moose can dive left or right when he's at third, but footwork is not his strong suit and he couldn't field a grounder hit 6 feet to his left. Put Murphy on with one out. They called it a hit cause Moose didn't touch it. Hah!

So now after Cespedes singles, Duda comes up and they shift for him too with Moose covering all of short and third...and just like Murphy, Duda hits it the other way....but this time it's a wounded duck liner that Moose catches. Cespedes completely screws up when he breaks for second and gets doubled off first easily to lose the game for the Metskies. Stupido! Mas stupido!

Game 5 Preview: Matt Harvey vs. Volquez. I got to like Harvey to outpitch Volquez after that sad trip to his Father's funeral. Look for Volquez to go maybe 5 and then turn it over to the bullpen. The Royals will probably be behind by then. Question is, can they do their late inning thing again and punish the Met's bullpen? There's a lot on Harvey's shoulders...he has to go deep into the game to give them a chance. The Royals have seen everybody the Mets have out there and they make contact.

I predict the Mets win Game 5...maybe a blowout...and the thing goes back to KC for Cueto to win Game 6. If Cueto doesn't win Game 6 I think the Royals could be in a world of hurt sending Ventura out against Synergaard again.

We Shall See!

Salutations!